TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208

N cng Vit Nam hin nay: Thc trng v gii php

ThS. Nguyn Tun T*

Cc Qun tr Ti v - B Ngoi giao,
S 40 Trn Ph, Ba nh, H Ni, Vit Nam
Nhn ngy 26 thng 06 nm 2012

Tm tt. Trong bi cnh n cng chu u ang lan rng v cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu
cha tm ra li thot, nhiu chuyn gia nghin cu cnh bo n cng ca Vit Nam cng ang
mc nguy him v c xu hng gia tng nhanh. C rt nhiu ri ro tim n trong chi tiu cng, tr
n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam, i hi phi c ci nhn nghim tc v vn ny c
nhng gii php qun l n cng mt cch hiu qu trong thi gian ti. Bi vit phn tch thc
trng n cng hin nay Vit Nam, nhng nguyn nhn dn n n cng v xut mt s gii
php kim sot n cng trong bi cnh n cng nhiu nc trn th gii tip tc lan rng v kh
kim sot.
T kha: N cng, GDP, khng hong, ngn sch, thm ht, qun l, ri ro.

1. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam hin nay*
Theo Lut Qun l n cng ca Vit Nam
nm 1999, n cng bao gm: n chnh ph, n
c Chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a
phng. Theo bo co ca B Ti chnh, c cu
n cng ca Chnh ph tnh n ngy
31/12/2010 nh sau: n chnh ph chim 80%,
n c Chnh ph bo lnh chim 19% v n
chnh quyn a phng chim 1%. Trong c
cu n cng tnh n ngy 31/12/2010, n trong
nc chim 42% v n nc ngoi chim 58%.
Trong c cu n nc ngoi, n song phng
chim 46,66%, n a phng chim 44,59%,
cn li cc khon n tn dng thng mi, tn
dng t nhn v tri phiu... (Hnh 1).
Cng vi s pht trin nhanh chng ca nn
kinh t, n cng Vit Nam c xu hng tng
ln rt nhanh. Theo nh gi ca B Ti chnh,
n cng Vit Nam nm 2007 chim khong
______
* T: 84-903438074
Email: tuantu3784@gmail.com
33,8% GDP, nm 2008 chim 36,2% GDP, nm
2009 chim 41,9% GDP, nm 2010 chim
52,6% GDP v nm 2011 chim 58,7% GDP.
Cn theo nh gi ca Qu Tin t Quc t
(IMF), n cng Vit Nam tng t 31,7% GDP
nm 2001 ln 42,2% GDP nm 2005, t 52,7%
GDP nm 2010. Tnh trong giai on 2007-2011,
n cng Vit Nam tng khong 25%, t mc
tng trung bnh 5%/nm. Tnh theo tc tng
trung bnh, n nm 2019, d bo n cng Vit
Nam s t mc 100% GDP. N cng tng cao
khin thm ht ngn sch ca Vit Nam lun
mc ln, dng mc -5,8% GDP nm 2010 theo
nh gi ca B Ti chnh, v mc -6% nm
2010 theo nh gi ca IMF (Bng 1).
Nu so snh vi mt s nc ang gp
khng hong n cng chu u nh Hy Lp,
Ty Ban Nha, B o Nha hoc M th tnh
hnh n cng ca Vit Nam hin nay vn c
nh gi l kh an ton. Vo thi im cng b
khng hong cui nm 2009, n cng Hy Lp
t mc 115% GDP, cn cc nc Ty Ban
Nha, B o Nha n cng u khong 100%
200
 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208 201

GDP, thm ht ngn sch ca cc nc ny u ny cao hn rt nhiu so vi mc trung bnh

gp 3-4 ln cho php.. i vi Vit Nam, cc t
chc xp hng quc t mc d duy tr mc tn
nhim n cng l B+ nhng h u cho rng n
cng Vit Nam nm 2011 l khong 58,4%
GDP (theo nh gi ca IMF) v mc n cng
gj
37% i vi hng B. Trong khu vc chu ,
Vit Nam l nc c t l n cng/GDP cao
hn nhiu so vi Trung Quc, Indonesia,
Campuchia, Hn Quc, i Loan, Thi Lan,
Philippines (Hnh 2).

Hnh 1. C cu n cng Vit Nam tnh n ngy 31/12/2010.

Ngun: Nguyen Thi Thanh Ha (2011), An Overview of Public Debt Management in Vietnam,
Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference, Geneva, 14-16/11/2011.
Bng 1. Thm ht ngn sch v n cng ca Vit Nam giai on 2000-2010 (% GDP)
Ch s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Thm ht ngn sch
B Ti chnh -4,9 -4,9 -4,9 -5,0 -5,7 -4,6 -6,9 -5,8
IMF -4,3 -3,8 -3,3 -4,8 -1,8 -3,7 -0,4 -1,9 -0,9 -8,9 -6,0
ADB -4,3 -3,5 -2,3 -2,2 0,2 -1,1 1,3 -1,0 -1,9 -7,7
N cng
B Ti chnh 11,5 13,3 16,1 19,4 23,2 27,7 33,8 36,3 41,9 52,6 58,7
IMF 31,7 32,5 33,3 38,9 42,2 42,9 45,6 43,9 49,0 56,6 58,4

Ngun: B Ti chnh, IMF, ADB, The Economist Intelligence Unit,

tng hp t s liu tng nm.

Hnh 2. N cng Vit Nam v mt s nc chu tnh n 31/12/2009.

Ngun: Benedict Bingham (2010), Vietnam: Fiscal Strategy and Public Debt, IMF Hanoi.
202 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208
2. Nhng ri ro tim n ca n cng v qun
l n cng Vit Nam
Ri ro trong chi tiu cng
Trong nhiu nm qua, tnh hnh chi tiu
cng Vit Nam khng t hiu qu cao. Vn
chi tiu khng ng ch , s dng ti
chnh khng ng mc tiu, khng ng ngun,
tnh trng bi chi, lng ph v tht thot din ra
kh ph bin. S liu ca Kim ton Nh nc
nm 2008 cng b s ti sn mua sai ch , s
dng sai mc ch ca 8 b ngnh ln n 95 t
ng. Kim ton Nh nc cng thng k
nhng tht thot tin ca trong chi tiu cng
hu ht cc d n ln ti con s 783,8 t ng
nm 2008. Trong chi tiu thng xuyn, s tin
chi khng ng ch , khng thuc nhim v
chi 16/29 tnh c kim ton vt qu con
s quy nh l 800 t ng. Theo s liu ca B
Ti chnh, tng chi ngn sch nh nc nm
2008 tng 22,3% so vi nm 2007 v bng
118,9% so vi d ton. Trong , chi u t
pht trin v chi thng xuyn vt mc d
ton tng ng mc 118,3% v 113,3%. Theo
s liu ca Tng cc Thng k, trong 9 thng
u nm 2011, vn u t thc hin t Ngn
sch Nh nc l 131.364 t ng, tng gn
24% so vi cng k nm trc. Vic ct gim
u t cng i khi cn khng hiu qu. Nhiu
d n trng im ang u t li b dng t
ngt, chng hn nh xy dng bnh vin cp
vng Tin Giang gim ti cho cc bnh
vin tuyn trn. Trong khi , mt s khon
mc u t cn ct gim nh mua sm thit b,
my mc, xe c vn cha c ct gim
nghim ngt. Trong iu kin th gii ang gp
khng hong, mc chi cng tng cao nh trn
cho thy k lut u t cng hin nay ca Vit
Nam cn lng lo.
Ri ro trong tr n cng
Nh cp, n cng ca Vit Nam hin
nay gm n trong nc v n nc ngoi. N
trong nc ch yu l tri phiu chnh ph m
h thng ngn hng thng mi mua, cn n
nc ngoi phn ln l n song phng v n
a phng, trong n nc ngoi ca doanh
nghip do Chnh ph bo lnh chim mt t
trng rt ln. C n trong nc v n nc
ngoi Vit Nam u rt ng lo ngi.
i vi vn n trong nc, hin nay h
thng ngn hng Vit Nam ang gp rt nhiu
vn v tnh thanh khon v n xu. Ngha v
tr n ni a trong 3 nm ti c c tnh
trn s lng tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh
v s o hn trong vng 3 nm ti, c khong
215.000 t ng, tng ng 20% d ton thu
ngn sch nh nc ca thi im (2014).
Nu trong trng hp xu (chng hn c bin
ng bt li v t gi hoc bong bng bt ng
sn b v), h thng ngn hng Vit Nam c
kh nng chao o v c nguy c sp , lc
Chnh ph khng th d tr ngoi t v d
tr n cu gip cc ngn hng, lm cho nn
kinh t d c nguy c sp . N trong nc
thng qua tri phiu ngn hng s ch khin
khng hong ca khu vc ny l tin cho
khng hong khu vc kia.
i vi vn n nc ngoi, kh nng
thanh ton n ca Vit Nam c y ban Gim
st Ti chnh Quc gia nh gi theo cc ch
tiu: (i) quy m ca khon n so vi GDP; (ii)
quy m khon n so vi tng thu ngn sch nh
nc v so vi tng gi tr xut khu. Tnh
trong GDP, n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam tng
t 31,4 % nm 2006 ln 42,2% nm 2010 v n
nc ngoi ca khu vc cng tng t 26,7%
nm 2006 ln 31,1% GDP nm 2010. Ngha v
tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph so vi thu
ngn sch nh nc duy tr mc 3,5-
3,6%/nm, ngha v tr n trung v di hn so
vi xut khu hng ha v dch v duy tr
mc 3,3-4,2%/nm trong giai on 2006-2010.
Tnh ton thng qua cc ch tiu trn, c th
thy kh nng thanh ton n ca Vit Nam
ang gim dn. C th, nu xt theo ch tiu
quy m ca khon n so vi GDP th kh nng
thanh ton n ca Vit Nam ang gim rt
nhanh k t nm 2008. So vi tng thu ngn
sch nh nc, nm 2010, tng n cng gp
 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208 203

gn hai ln (cha bao gm ngha v tr n d l n cng nc ngoi vi tng gi tr xut khu

phng cho cc doanh nghip nh nc). Cn t c tnh xp x khong 44%.
Bng 2. Mt s ch tiu chnh v n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, giai on 2006-2010
Ch tiu 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tng s d n nc ngoi so vi GDP (%) 31,4 32,5 29,8 39,0 42,2
N nc ngoi khu vc cng so vi GDP (%) 26,7 28,2 25,1 29,3 31,1
Ngha v tr n trung v di hn so vi xut khu 4,0 3,8 3,3 4,2 3,4
hng ha v dch v (%)
Ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph so vi 3,7 3,6 3,5 5,1 3,7
thu ngn sch nh nc (%)
D tr ngoi hi so vi tng d n ngn hn (%) 6.380,0 10.177,0 2.808,0 290,0 187,0
Ngha v n d phng ca Chnh ph so thu ngn 4,5 4,6 4,7 4,3 5,8
sch nh nc (%)
Ngun: B Ti chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 7, thng 7/2011.
Trong c cu vay n nc ngoi ca Chnh iu kin doanh nghip nh nc lm n km
ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh chim mt t hiu qu nh hin nay, ngha v tr n nc
l tng i ln v c xu hng tng mnh. N ngoi ca cc doanh nghip u dn ln vai
c Chnh ph bo lnh phn ln l n nc Nh nc.
ngoi ca cc doanh nghip nh nc. Trong k

Hnh 3. Cu trc n cng nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, giai on 2006-2010.

Ngun: B Ti chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 7, thng 7/2011.
Tnh thanh khon n cng ca Vit Nam c th xy ra nhng ri ro v tnh thanh
hin nay vn c nh gi l kh tt v cc khon, khi thi hn tr n b xo trn (khon
khon vay di hn vi li sut thp chim ti n t trung hn v di hn c th chuyn
80% (ngha v tr n n nm 2013 chim thnh ngn hn - trong trng hp cc ch n
khong 10% d tr ngoi hi quc gia v n gp kh khn hay khng hong kinh t trong
nc ngoi chim 20% d tr ngoi hi hin nc). c bit, ri ro v tnh thanh khon
nay). Mc d vy, n cng ca Vit Nam vn ca nhng khon n nc ngoi ngn hn l
204 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208
iu rt ng lo ngi khi t l d tr ngoi hi
ca Vit Nam trn tng d n ngn hn v
ang st gim vi tc rt nhanh, t mc
100 ln nm 2007 xung cn 28 ln nm
2008, cn 3 ln nm 2009 v ch cn gp
khong gn 2 ln nm 2010.
3. Nguyn nhn dn n tnh trng n cng
hin nay Vit Nam
N cng hin nay Vit Nam c th xut
pht t mt s nguyn nhn ch yu sau y:
Th nht, m rng u t cng mt cch
t nhng khng hiu qu dn n n cng tng
mnh. Trong nhiu nm qua, Nh nc u t
rt ln cho cc cng trnh cng cng, c bit l
c s h tng, cng bin, sn bay, c khu kinh
t... Cc chuyn gia cho rng, vi tnh hnh tnh
no cng lp k hoch xy dng cng bin,
trnh k hoch lm sn bay, tnh no cng xin
lm c khu kinh t, th u t cng dn tri v
lng ph l iu tt yu xy ra. Theo B K
hoch v u t, mi nm Vit Nam cn
khong 25 t USD u t cho c s h tng,
trong khi vn huy ng c hng nm t
cc ngun ca Nh nc cng nh ca t nhn
cha n 16 t USD, phn cn li l phi vay
n nc ngoi. Chi tiu v u t n cng km
hiu qu ang em li nhng ri ro ng bo
ng cho nn kinh t. N khin mc thm ht
ngn sch ca Vit Nam lun mc rt cao
trong khu vc, ng thi khin hiu qu u t
trn mt ng vn lun mc thp. Nu giai
on 2000-2005 b ra gn 5 ng c th to ra
1 ng tng thm ca GDP, n giai on
2006-2010 phi b ra 7,4 ng mi to ra 1
ng tng thm ca GDP. Trong nhiu nm gn
y, Vit Nam ang gp phi vn thm ht
kp: thm ht ngn sch v chi tiu cng u
mc cao. Tuy cha iu kin xy ra mt
cuc khng hong n cng nh mt s nc
chu u v M nh thi gian qua, bi Vit
Nam vn l mt trong nhng nn kinh t c tc
tng trng kinh t cao, nhng mt khi tc
tng trng kinh t suy gim v nhiu l do
khc nhau th Chnh ph buc phi la chn cc
gi kch thch kinh t khin n cng ngy cng
tng mnh hn.
Vi mc n cng ca Chnh ph nh hin
nay, nhiu kin cho rng u t cng tip tc
c xu hng i vay nc ngoi vi li sut cao,
khin n cng ca Vit Nam cng tng nhanh,
gy kh nng d b tn thng i vi nn kinh
t v m. Theo Cc Qun l n v Ti chnh i
ngoi, li sut trung bnh n nc ngoi ca
Chnh ph tng t 1,54%/nm vo nm 2006
ln 1,9%/nm vo nm 2009 v nm 2010 t
2,1%/nm. Vi thc trng ny, chi ph tr li
ang tr thnh gnh nng ngy cng gia tng
ca Chnh ph. Trong khi n nc ngoi ca
khu vc cng tng cao nhng nm gn y, th
t l d tr ngoi hi so vi tng d n ngn
hn li c xu hng gim mnh. iu ny cho
thy vic tr n nc ngoi Vit Nam tuy vn
trong mc an ton, nhng c nguy c mt
an ton trong nhiu nm ti khi Vit Nam
tr thnh nc c thu nhp trung bnh, khng
cn c hng u i t ngun vn h tr
pht trin chnh thc (ODA) trong khi vay n t
cc ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi gp rt
nhiu kh khn.
Th hai, chnh sch kch cu ca Chnh ph
trong nhng nm qua khin bi chi ngn
sch ca Vit Nam tng cao v Chnh ph buc
phi vay n b p ngn sch, dn n n
cng tng cao. Nm 2008, Chnh ph chi 1 t
USD kch cu u t v tiu dng, n nm
2009, Chnh ph li tung hai gi kch cu vi
tng tr gi 9 t USD. Nh cc gi kch cu
ny, nn kinh t Vit Nam c nhiu thay i
tch cc trong khng hong, nhng cng l
mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin n cng
gia tng. Ngn sch nh nc vn rt cng
thng v ngun thu t thu gim trong nhng
nm khng khong kinh t ton cu, cng vi
gi du th gii gim khin doanh thu ca
Chnh ph b nh hng, cho nn vic tung ra
cc gi kch cu trn nh hng mnh n
ti chnh cng.
 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208
Th ba, n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh
nc ngy cng ln. Mc d trong c cu n
cng ca Vit Nam hin nay cha tnh n n
ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc, nhng
trong c cu n ca doanh nghip do Chnh ph
bo lnh hu ht l cc khon vay ngn hn, v
vy trong trng hp doanh nghip khng c
kh nng tr n, Chnh ph s l ngi phi tr
n thay cho doanh nghip.
Hn th, nhiu chuyn gia cho rng, vic
khng tnh n ca doanh nghip nh nc trong
c cu n cng ca Vit Nam l iu kh lng
trc c ri ro, c kh nng a Vit Nam
ri vo ci by khng hong n cng nu khng
kim sot tt n ca doanh nghip nh nc.
Theo bo co ca Vin Nghin cu Qun l
Kinh t Trung ng, u t ca 22/100 doanh
nghip nh nc ln nm 2010 tng ng 17
t USD (17% GDP), v nu tnh c 100 doanh
nghip nh nc th quy m u t ca khu vc
doanh nghip ny l rt ln, trong phn ln
l i vay. Theo bo co ca Chnh ph gi
Quc hi vo ngy 1/11/2010, n ca 81/91
doanh nghip nh nc (cha tnh Vinashin)
trong nm 2009 l 813.435 t ng, tng
ng 49% GDP. Nu tnh c n ca Vinashin,
n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc vo
cui nm 2009 tng ng 54,2% GDP. R
rng n ca c doanh nghip nh nc v
Chnh ph u tng rt nhanh trong mt thi
gian rt ngn, trong mc tng n ca khu
vc doanh nghip nh nc tht s ng lo
ngi. Nu nhn vo con s tuyt i, sau khi tr
i cc khon n nc ngoi v vi nhng tnh
ton thn trng nht th trong nm 2009, khu
vc doanh nghip nh nc chim khng di
60% trong tng tn dng n ni a tng thm
ca ton nn kinh t. y l bng chng cho
thy cc doanh nghip nh nc l i tng
c hng li nhiu nht t chng trnh h
tr li sut v kch cu ca Chnh ph nm
2009. Vi mc n ca doanh nghip nh nc
ln nh trn, Chnh ph khng nn loi n ca
doanh nghip nh nc ra khi n cng ca
Vit Nam bi nu doanh nghip nh nc
khng tr c n th ngn sch s phi gnh.
205
4. Gii php qun l n cng hiu qu Vit
Nam trong thi gian ti
Nhng phn tch trn cho thy, Vit Nam
ang c nhiu du hiu ging vi mt s nc
chu u lm vo tnh trng khng hong n
cng, l: i) Tng trng kinh t gim k t
sau khng hong ti chnh M nm 2008 n
nay; ii) Thm ht ngn sch v n cng ln, c
xu hng tng nhanh; iii) Lm pht tng cao v
kh kim ch; iv) C cu n cng nc ngoi
tng cao trong khi t l d tr ngoi hi/tng d
n ngn hn gim mnh; v) N ca khu vc
doanh nghip nh nc rt ln nhng cha
c tnh vo c cu n cng; vi) Vit Nam
ang b p lc khng c vay cc khon vay
u i li sut thp (nh ODA) m tin ti phi
vay cc khon vay thng mi vi li sut cao
hn, thi gian vay ngn hn. Nhng yu t ny
khin n cng Vit Nam c nguy c nm
trong vng ri ro cao, nht l khi nn kinh t
Vit Nam vn tip tc tng trng da vo khai
thc ti nguyn thin nhin, thm dng lao
ng, vn, nng sut lao ng thp. Cho n
nay, n cng Vit Nam vt ngng an
ton, trong vi nm ti c kh nng tip tc
tng cao v thiu bn vng.
Nhn vo nh hng pht trin kinh t - x
hi ca Vit Nam t nay n nm 2020, c th
thy trong thi gian ti Vit Nam s tip tc
phi i vay b p nhng thiu ht u t,
bi t l tit kim ni a ca Vit nam hin
nay ch l khong 27% GDP, trong khi mc u
t ton x hi i hi mi nm l 42% GDP.
Tnh khng bn vng ca n cng trong thi
gian ti c th quy v mt s yu t sau y:
Th nht, Nh nc tip tc u t ln
xy dng cc cng trnh c s h tng hin i
v quan trng nh d n ng st cao tc Bc
- Nam (d tnh 56 t USD), d n xy dng
Th (60 t USD), nh my in ht nhn
Ninh Thun (trn 10 t USD)..., trong ngun
vn ch yu ly t ngn sch nh nc v n
cng. iu ny s khin n cng, c bit l n
nc ngoi, ca Vit Nam tng nhanh trong
thi gian ti.
206 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208
Th hai, n cng ph thuc vo cn cn
ngn sch v tc tng trng kinh t. Tc
tng trng kinh t cao l iu kin cn tng
ngun thu v t thng d ngn sch. Tuy
nhin, nu m hnh kinh t Vit Nam khng
c s i mi, tip tc da vo cc yu t vn
v thm dng ti nguyn lao ng th tc
tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam trong thi
gian ti s gim, dn n thm ht ngn sch v
n cng cao hn. Thc trng pht trin kinh t
hin nay Vit Nam cho thy, vic i mi m
hnh tng trng Vit Nam ang gp rt nhiu
vn khc mc, c bit trong vn pht
trin ngun nhn lc, doanh nghip nh nc,
cng nghip h tr, c s h tng mm... Theo
d bo nm 2011 ca Economist Intelligence
Unit (EIU), tc tng GDP trung bnh hng
nm ca Vit Nam s ch t trung bnh 7,4%
vo nm 2015, gim cn khong 5% sau nm
2020 v ch t khong 3-4% sau nm 2030.
Bng 3. Ch s ROA v ROE ca 500 doanh nghip ln nht Vit Nam (%)
ROA
Nm
Doanh nghip nh nc FDI
2007 3,7
2008 3,1
2009 3,6
2010 5,2
2011 2,7
Ngun: C s d liu Vietnam Report - Bng xp hng VNR500 nm 2007-2011.
ng lo ngi nht l hiu qu kinh t ca
cc doanh nghip nh nc nhn chung rt thp,
th hin t sut li nhun trn ti sn (ROA)
v t sut li nhun trn vn ch s hu (ROE)
ca cc doanh nghip nh nc lun thp hn
khu vc FDI v khu vc doanh nghip t nhn,
ng thi c xu hng gim trong 5 nm gn
y, c bit gim mnh vo nm 2011. iu
ny chng t mt ng vn ca doanh nghip
b ra trong nm 2011 ch thu li cha bng mt
na ca 5 nm trc y (2007). Hot ng
km hiu qu ca doanh nghip khin cc
khon vay do Chnh ph bo lnh ca cc
doanh nghip nh nc trong nhng nm ti rt
t c kh nng t chi tr v u trng i vo s
cu gip t pha Nh nc.
Cn theo nh gi ca y ban Gim st Ti
chnh Quc gia, vi mc tng trng GDP bnh
qun mi nm l 7%/nm cho giai on 2011-
2020, nu thm ht ngn sch nh nc vn gi
mc bnh qun 5,6% GDP/nm nh giai on
2006-2010 th n cng ca Vit Nam (cha tnh
n ca cc doanh nghip nh nc do Chnh
ph bo lnh) s vo khong 70,8% GDP nm
2020; 75,5% GDP nm 2025 v 78,1% GDP
nm 2030. Vi mc n cng c d bo nh
trn, kh nng v n ca Vit Nam l kh cao.
Th ba, n cng Vit Nam trong thi gian
ti ph thuc rt nhiu vo tnh hiu qu ca
cc doanh nghip nh nc. Nhiu chuyn gia
kinh t cho rng, n cng ca Vit Nam hin rt
cao, do cha tnh n n ca doanh nghip nh
nc c Chnh ph bo lnh nn khng xc
nh chnh xc s n cng l bao nhiu, v vy
khng bit c ngng nguy him ca nn ti
chnh quc gia mc no.
ROE
T nhn Doanh nghip nh nc FDI T nhn
26,9 3,1 25,6 62,4 34,9
14,7 3,6 15,4 30,9 19,5
13,7 2,6 15,3 27,6 14,5
13,0 2,5 20,8 27,1 15,0
9,8 2,4 10,0 24,6 16,0
Trc nhng ri ro tim n ca n cng
Vit Nam, Chnh ph v cc b, ban, ngnh
ang n lc tm kim cc gii php qun l
n cng hiu qu, trnh xy ra tnh trng khng
hong n cng trong tng lai. Trn quan im
phn tch thc trng n cng v nhng ri ro
trong s dng n cng v tr n cng ca Vit
Nam trong thi gian qua, bi vit a ra mt s
kin ngh chnh sch sau y:
Mt l, cn thay i cch tnh n cng,
trong tnh c n ca cc doanh nghip nh
nc c bo lnh trong c cu n cng. Vi
cch tnh mi ny, chng ta mi c th tnh
chnh xc s n cng hin ti l bao nhiu, c
ngng ri ro cao hay khng, t mi c th
qun l hiu qu n cng.
 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208
Hai l, cn thay i c cu n cng theo
hng tng t trng n trong nc nhiu hn
n nc ngoi. N trong nc c th huy ng
thng qua cc t pht hnh tri phiu vi li
sut ph hp huy ng ngun vn nhn ri
trong ngi dn. Nu khng thay i c c
cu n cng theo hng tng cao n trong
nc, Vit Nam s rt kh khn trong vic tr
n nc ngoi bi trong thi gian ti nhng u
i t ngun vn ODA cho Vit Nam s gim
mnh, buc Chnh ph tip tc phi i vay n
ti cc ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi vi
li sut cao v thi gian ngn hn hn rt nhiu.
Hn na, vic vay n cc ngn hng nc
ngoi rt nguy him nu gp nhng bin ng
bt li v t gi.
Ba l, cn thc hin k lut ti kha mt
cch r rng v nghim ngt trnh tnh trng
thm ht ngn sch trin min v lun mc
cao, gy nh hng bt li n n cng. K lut
ti kha cn thc thi nhm gim thm ht ngn
sch mt cch cng rn theo l trnh r rng,
chng hn nh thm ht ngn sch duy tr
mc 4% t nay n nm 2020, duy tr mc
3% k t sau nm 2020...
Bn l, phi c nhng lnh vc u tin r
rng trong chi tiu s dng n cng. Nhng u
tin cn t ra l: cc c s h tng cng ch,
cc dch v an sinh x hi, cc doanh nghip
nh nc khng v mc ch thng mi. Cc
doanh nghip nh nc v th cng cn phi thu
hp theo hng: tip tc pht trin cc doanh
nghip nh nc v li ch cng ch v c
Chnh ph bo lnh, ng thi bn cc doanh
nghip nh nc kinh doanh thng mi cho
nh u t nc ngoi v t nhn trong nc.
Nm l, cn trng hn i vi qun l ri ro
n cng ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc.
N ca doanh nghip nh nc, n chnh ph
v n cng u ang tng ln rt nhanh, mi b
phn n ny c tnh cht v cu trc khc nhau,
em li nhng ri ro khc nhau v cn phi c
nhng bin php qun l ri ro mt cch hiu
qu. qun l n hiu qu, cn phi tnh c
207
n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc trnh
tnh trng mt hoc vi doanh nghip nh nc
mt kh nng tr n s nh hng n cc
doanh nghip nh nc khc, gy v hng
lot h thng ti chnh - ngn hng do n xu
ca cc doanh nghip, khin Chnh ph mt kh
nng gip doanh nghip tr n v dn n tnh
trng v n nh Hy Lp v mt s nc chu
u ang gp phi.
Su l, cn xy dng mt c ch qun l n
cng hiu qu. Ch kim ton rt cn s
minh bch v c trch nhim gii trnh cao
c th kim sot tt n cng ca Vit Nam.
Hin ti, cht lng i ng kim ton nh
nc ca Vit Nam cn thp, cha kh nng
nh gi, phn tch bn cht ca n cng,
phn loi n cng v nh gi nhng tc ng
c th xy ra i vi n cng. Hn na, vic
gim st chi tiu ca Chnh ph cng cn phi
c th ch ha v bt buc thi hnh trnh
tnh trng chi tiu khng ng mc ch, chi
tiu vt qu mc cho php. Lut Ngn sch
Nh nc cng cn phi c r sot li nhm
nng cao hiu qu ca chi tiu cng. Nu khng
c c ch qun l n cng hiu qu, chng ta
khng th nh gi thu o tnh hnh tng
trng kinh t, lng d tr quc gia l bao
nhiu, n cng trong nc hay n cng nc
ngoi ang gp mi nguy him g, do vy nguy
c v n l iu khng th lng trc.
Nhn chung cho n nay, qun l n cng
Vit Nam vn cha thc hin hiu qu. Trong
nhng thng u nm 2012, s ph sn ca tp
on Vinalines li mt ln na cnh bo tnh
trng n cng ca Vit Nam vn tip tc tng
nhanh v theo nh gi ca Qu Tin t Quc t
(IMF), n nm 2015, n cng ca Vit Nam
c kh nng l 86,2 t USD, chim 65% GDP.
V vy, vic trin khai kp thi cc chnh sch
v bin php qun l n cng l mt nhim v
quan trng i vi Chnh ph v cc ngnh, cc
cp c th qun l n cng ti Vit Nam mt
cch an ton, hiu qu.
208 N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208

Ti liu tham kho [5] V Thnh T Anh (2010), Tnh bn vng ca n

[1] Nguyn c Thnh (2011), N cng Vit Nam:
Mt s phn tch v tho lun, Hi tho v Kinh t
Vit Nam nm 2011, trin vng nm 2012 v cc gii
php thc hin k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi
2011-2015.
[2] Mai Thu Hin v Nguyn Th Nh Nguyt (2011),
Tnh hnh n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam,
Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam, S 14.
[3] V Tr Thnh (2010), Ba ri ro ln t n cng ca
Vit Nam, http://vef.vn/2010-12-04-3-rui-ro-lon-
nhat-doi-voi-no-cong-cua-viet-nam.
[4] Nguyn Hoi (2011), N cng ti Vit Nam: Hu
ha v bi hc t li dao S&P,
http://vneconomy.vn/20110813041842652p0c6/hau-
hoa-no-cong-va-bai-hoc-tu-luoi-dao-sp.htm.
cng Vit Nam, http://www.tinkinhte.com/viet-
nam/phan-tich-du-bao/tsvu-thanh-tu-anh-tinh-ben-
vung-cua-no-cong-o-viet-nam.nd5-
dt.99635.113121.html.
[6] B Ti chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 7, thng
7/2011.
[7] Nguyen Thi Thanh Ha (2011), An Overview of Public
Debt Management in Vietnam, Eighth UNCTAD
Debt Management Conference, Geneva, 14-
16/11/2011.
[8] Benedict Bingham (2010), Vietnam: Fiscal Strategy
and Public Debt, IMF Hanoi.
[9] Economist Intelligence Unit (2011), Country Report:
Vietnam.

Vietnams Public debt at present: Status and solusions

MA. Nguyen Tuan Tu

Department of Financial Management - Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
No 40 Tran Phu, Ba Dinh, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract. In the context that the EU debt crisis is spreading and the global economy have not
found a way out, many researchers have warned that Vietnams public debt is at a dangerous level and
is rapidly increasing. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's public debt
increased from 31.7% of GDP in 2001 to 42.2% of GDP in 2005, reaching 52.7% of GDP in 2010. If
comparing to other EU countries that are in a severe public debt crisis, the Vietnams public debt is
considered quite safe, but comparing to other Asian countries, Vietnam has a public debt/GDP ratio
that is higher than China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines. There are
many potential risks in the spending of public debt, paying public debt and public debt management in
Vietnam which require a serious look on this issue in order to have effective solutions of public debt
management in the future.