Quản trị sản xuất

TRNG AI HOC A LAT
F G
GIAO TRNH
QUAN TR SAN XUAT
NGUYEN ANH SN
1998
Quan tr san xuat -2-
MUC LUC
Chng I: M AU VE QUAN TR SAN XUAT VA DCH VU ............................5
I. KHAI NIEM VE SAN XUAT VA QUAN TR SAN XUAT : ............................5
1. Khai niem san xuat :.........................................................................................5
2. Khai niem ve quan tr san xuat : ......................................................................6
II. NOI DUNG MON QUAN TR SAN XUAT VA DCH VU ..............................7
Chng II : D BAO TRONG QUAN TR SAN XUAT ...........................................9
I. KHAI NIEM VE D BAO, CAC LOAI D BAO, TRNH T THC HIEN
D BAO. ...................................................................................................................9
II. CAC PHNG PHAP D BAO THEO THI GIAN .....................................11
A. Cac phng phap nh tnh ............................................................................11
1. Phng phap lay y kien cua hoi ong ieu hanh : ....................................12
2. Phng phap lay y kien cua nhan vien ban hang :....................................12
3. Phng phap lay y kien cua khach hang ...................................................12
4. Phng phap Delphi (Phng phap chuyen gia trong va ngoai x nghiep)
..........................................................................................................................12
B. Cac phng phap nh lng : .......................................................................14
1. Phng phap tiep can gian n : ................................................................14
2. Phng phap bnh quan di ong gian n : ................................................14
3. Phng phap bnh quan di ong co he so : ................................................15
4. Phng phap san bang so mu : ...................................................................16
5. Phng phap san bang so mu bac 2 (co nh hng) ................................18
6. Phng phap bnh phng be nhat : ...........................................................19
7. Phng phap d bao theo khuynh hng co xet en bien ong thi vu : 21
III. D BAO THEO NGUYEN NHAN BANG PHNG PHAP PHAN TCH
TNG QUAN (PHNG PHAP D BAO NHAN QUA) ................................24
1. D bao theo tng nguyen nhan : ....................................................................25
2. Xac nh sai chuan cua c oan...................................................................26
3. Xac nh he so tng quan : ...........................................................................26
4. D bao theo nhieu nguyen nhan : ....................................................................1
4. D bao theo nhieu nguyen nhan : ..................................................................28
IV. KIEM TRA KET QUA D BAO : ..................................................................28
1. Sai so tuyet oi bnh quan : ............................................................................28
2. Tn hieu theo doi (Tn hieu d bao) ...............................................................28
3. Gii han kiem tra. ...........................................................................................28
Chng III : QUYET NH VE SAN PHAM VA CONG SUAT ..........................32
I. QUYET NH VE SAN PHAM VA DCH VU : ..............................................32
1. La chon san pham va dch vu :.....................................................................32
II. QUYET NH VE CONG SUAT : ...................................................................37
1. Quan tr nhu cau :............................................................................................37
2. Quan tr cong suat : .........................................................................................38
3. La chon cong suat : .......................................................................................43
Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

III. QUYET NH VE THIET B : ........................................................................45
1. Nguyen tac la chon thiet b : ........................................................................45
2. Bai toan chon may: .........................................................................................46
Chng iv : HOACH NH TONG HP ...................................................................51
I. KHAI NIEM VE HOACH NH TONG HP VA MOI QUAN HE CUA
HOACH NH TONG HP VI CAC HOAT ONG KHAC ...........................51
1. Khai niem ve hoach nh tong hp : .............................................................51
2. Moi quan he cua hoach nh tong hp vi cac hoat ong khac : .................51
II. CAC CHIEN LC THUAN TUY (hay cac chien lc n thuan) ..............53
A/ Cac chien lc b ong : ................................................................................53
B/ Cac chien lc chu ong :..............................................................................55
III. CAC PHNG PHAP HOACH NH TONG HP ......................................56
1. Phng phap trc quan : (Phng phap kinh nghiem)...................................56
Chng v : QUAN TR TON KHO ...........................................................................68
I. VAI TRO CUA TON KHO .................................................................................68
II. NHNG KHAI NIEM LIEN QUAN EN QUAN TR TON KHO : ..............69
1. Chc nang quan tr ton kho :...........................................................................69
III CAC MO HNH TON KHO : ............................................................................73
1. Mo hnh san lng n hang kinh te c ban (EOQ) : ....................................73
2. Mo hnh cung cap theo nhu cau san xuat (POQ) : .........................................76
3. Mo hnh ton kho co san lng gi lai ni cung ng ......................................78
4. Mo hnh khau tr theo san lng : .................................................................80
5. Mo hnh xac suat vi thi gian cung ng khong oi : ...................................82
IV. AP DUNG KY THUAT PHAN TCH BIEN TE E AP DUNG CHNH
SACH TON KHO :..................................................................................................84
Chng vi : HOACH NH NHU CAU VAT T ....................................................86
I. TONG QUAT.......................................................................................................86
II. TRNH T HOACH NH NHU CAU VAT T : ..........................................87
1. Hoach nh nhu cau tong hp : .......................................................................87
2. Hoach nh nhu cau rong :..............................................................................89
3. Hoach nh nhu cau tng bo phan :...............................................................93
III. CAC MO HNH CUNG NG VAT T : ........................................................93
1. Mo hnh cung cap theo lo ng vi nhu cau (Lot for lot. L.F.L).....................94
2. Ky thuat xac nh kch thc lo hang theo mo hnh EOQ: ...........................94
Chng vii : HOACH NH LCH TRNH SAN XUAT .........................................99
I. NHNG NGUYEN TAC SAP XEP TH T CAC CONG VIEC TREN
MOT PHNG TIEN (MOT MAY HOAC MOT DAY CHUYEN) :.................99
1. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac FCFS : ......................................100
2. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac EDD : .......................................101
3. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac SPT :.........................................101
4. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac LPT : ........................................102
5. Nguyen tac anh gia mc o bo tr hp ly cac cong viec va th t u tien
trong ieu o san xuat (ty so thi han - Critical Ratio - CR) ;........................103
II. NGUYEN TAC JOHNSON : ...........................................................................104
1. Bo tr N cong viec tren 2 may : ....................................................................104
III. PHNG PHAP HUNGGARI (Honig) : .......................................................107
Chng Viii : LA CHON V TR CUA DOANH NGHIEP .................................114
I. CAC NHAN TO ANH HNG EN VIEC LA CHON A IEM..........114
1. Cac ieu kien t nhien : ...............................................................................114
2. Cac ieu kien xa hoi :...................................................................................114
3. Cac ieu kien kinh te :..................................................................................114
II. CAC PHNG PHAP XAC NH A IEM : ...........................................115
1. Phng phap cho iem co he so (Trong so) ................................................115
2. Phng phap iem hoa von ..........................................................................117
3. Phng phap toa o 1 chieu : .......................................................................118
4. Phng Phap toa o hai chieu : ....................................................................119
5. Phng phap s dung bai toan van tai : ......................................................120
Chng ix : BO TR MAT BANG...........................................................................125
I. KHAI NIEM VE BO TR MAT BANG : .........................................................125
II. CAC LOAI BO TR MAT BANG :.................................................................125
1. Bo tr mat bang theo v tr co nh : .............................................................126
2. Bo tr mat bang theo nh hng san pham : ...............................................126
3. Bo tr mat bang theo nh hng cong nghe. ...............................................130
Chng X: NG DUNG LY THUYET XEP HANG E BO TR NHAN lC VA
PHNG TIEN ........................................................................................................138
I. KHAI QUAT :....................................................................................................138
II. AC IEM CUA XEP HANG CH : ............................................................139
1. Dong en : Dong khach en hay dong vao co cac ac iem sau :.............139
2. Dong xep hang : (hang ch) co nhng ac iem sau : ................................139
3. Ngi phuc vu : (Hoat ong dch vu) co cac ac iem sau : ......................140
III. CAC MO HNH XEP HANG : .......................................................................141
1. Cong thc s dung cho cac mo hnh xep hang ............................................141
2. Mo hnh I (Dong xep hang n gian )..........................................................142
3. Mo hnh II (Mo hnh co nhieu kenh, mot pha) : ..........................................143
4. Mo hnh III (Thi gian phuc vu co nh)......................................................145
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO .........................................................................................146

CHNG I:
M AU VE QUAN TR SAN XUAT VA DCH VU
I. KHAI NIEM VE SAN XUAT VA QUAN TR SAN XUAT :

1. Khai niem san xuat :
* San xuat la qua trnh tao ra san pham va dch vu
* Ve thc chat, san xuat chnh la qua trnh chuyen hoa cac au vao bien chung
thanh cac au ra di dang san pham hay dch vu.
Qua trnh nay c the hien qua s o di ay
au vao Qua trnh au ra

- at ai chuyen hoa San pham va
- Lao ong dch vu
Thong qua
- Von - May moc,
- San xuat
. May moc, thiet thiet b
- Hoat ong tai
b - Giao duc
chnh
. Tien - Du lch
- Marketing
. Nguyen vat lieu - Hang khong
. Phng tien - Phong ngh....
san xuat
Khach hang
Cung cap tr lai
* giao trnh nay, chung ta nghien cu nhng van e oi vi ca hai loai doanh
nghiep :
- Doanh nghiep tao ra San pham hu hnh (thay c)

san pham vat chat San pham
- Doanh nghiep tao San pham dch vu
ra cac dch vu (Thng mai, sa cha...)
Sau ay ta hay xem xet s khac nhau gia qua trnh san xuat ra san pham va
qua trnh tao ra dch vu :

San xuat san pham Tao ra dch vu

1. Tao ra san pham vat 1. Khong tao ra san pham
chat vat chat
2. Co the d tr (co the 2. Khong d tr c (khong
ton kho) ton kho)
3. t tiep xuc vi khach 3. Thng xuyen tiep xuc
hang trong qua trnh vi khach hang
san xuat 4. Can nhieu nhan vien
4. Can nhieu may moc 5. Thong thng can so von
thiet b t hn so vi san xuat san
5. Thong thng can so pham
von ln hn 6. Chat lng dch vu kho
6. Chat lng san pham anh gia
de anh gia
7. San pham c phan 7. Viec phan phoi dch vu co
phoi khong b gii han gii han ve a ly.
ve a ly
2. Khai niem ve quan tr san xuat :

Quan tr san xuat bao gom tat ca cac hoat ong co lien quan en viec to chc,
phoi hp, s dung cac yeu to au vao nham chuyen hoa thanh ket qua au ra, la
san pham va dch vu vi chi ph san xuat thap nhat va hieu qua cao nhat.
Cac chc nang can ban va cot yeu nhat trong kinh doanh e tao ra san pham va
dch vu ma cac doanh nghiep eu phai thc hien o la 3 chc nang can ban :
- Tien hanh san xuat, thc hien dch vu (Cung cap san pham va dch vu)
- Marketing (ban san pham va dch vu)
- Tai chnh ke toan (cung cap tien bac e thc hien chc nang tren)
Thong thng, trong mot doanh nghiep, ngoai ba chc nang cot loi neu tren, con
co cac chc nang khac nh : Nhan s, ky thuat, mua hang, phan phoi hang hoa,
c the hien trong hnh ben :
Nhan s
Tai chnh San xuat

ke toan Mua hang
Phan phoi ky thuat
Marketing

- Cac chc nang nay khong oc lap, tach ri nhau ma co quan he qua lai chat
che.
- Chc nang tac nghiep (san xuat) co quan he het sc chat che vi 2 chc nang
tai chnh va marketing, con oi vi cac chc nang khac th t chat che hn.
- Cac quyet nh san xuat thng anh hng en viec thc hien cac chc nang
khac.
T o co the noi rang : Quan tr san xuat va dch vu co tam quan trong ac
biet trong hoat ong cua mot doanh nghiep. Neu quan tr tot, ng dung c cac
phng phap quan tr khoa hoc th se tao kha nang sinh li cho doanh nghiep.
Ngc lai, neu quan tr toi se dan en doanh nghiep b thua lo.
Nh vay, nhiem vu Trung tam cua mon hoc la i sau nghien cu cac c s khoa
hoc, cac mo hnh va thuat toan. Nham ng dung trong qua trnh quan tr san xuat
va dch vu.
II. NOI DUNG MON QUAN TR SAN XUAT VA DCH VU

Chng 1 : M au ve quan tr san xuat va dch vu
Chng 2 : D bao trong quan tr san xuat - Gii thieu 4 phng phap nh tnh
va 7 phng phap nh lng. Giup cho cac nha quan tr han che rui ro.
Chng 3 : Quyet nh ve san pham va cong suat : a ra cac chien lc ve
san pham (s dung phng phap s o cay)
Chng 4 : Hoach nh tong hp. Gii thieu cac phng phap la chon e ket
hp cac nguon lc trong san xuat kinh doanh nh lao ong, may moc thiet b,
nguyen vat lieu va lng ton kho sao cho chi ph nho nhat, san xuat on nh nhat.
Chng 5 : Quan tr ton kho : Gii thieu 5 mo hnh ton kho e cac nha quan tr
co the ng dung trong cac tnh huong khac nhau nham am bao san xuat lien tuc
ma khong b ong (Bi v hang ton kho thng chiem hn 40% tong gia tr tai san
cua mot doanh nghiep. Do o trnh o quan tr mot doanh nghiep co the anh gia
thong qua cong tac quan tr ton kho).
Chng 6 : Hoach nh nhu cau vat t bang may tnh (He thong MRP - Material
Requirement Planning) : Gii thieu cac phng phap va trnh t tnh toan tren may
tnh, cung nh cach thc cung ng vat t, phu tung va ban thanh pham sao cho kinh
te nhat.
Chng 7 : Hoach nh lch trnh san xuat (con goi la lap ke hoach tac nghiep).
Gii thieu cac phng phap phan cong, sap xep cong viec sao cho toi u - Cach sap
xep cong viec theo th t tren nhieu may nham at chi ph va thi gian thap nhat
(qua nguyen tac Johnson va phng phap Hunggari)
Chng 8 : La chon v tr cua X nghiep. Gii thieu 4 phng phap la chon v
tr x nghiep va cac tieu chuan e la chon, nham giam thieu nhng rui ro trong
suot qua trnh kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep.

Chng 9 : Bo tr mat bang. Tren c s doanh nghiep a chon c a iem,
viec quyet nh bo tr mat bang nham giup cac quan tr gia sap xep cac phng tien
sao cho hp ly.
- Neu la san xuat day chuyen th phai bo tr ra sao ?
- Van phong, kho tang, ca hang cua doanh nghiep phai nh the nao th c coi
la hieu qua.
Chng 10 : ng dung ly thuyet xep hang vao viec bo tr nhan lc va phng tien.
Gii thieu cac mo hnh nham giai quyet mot cach tot nhat ve trang b dch vu, so
lng nhan vien dch vu yeu cau e to chc cong viec dch vu at hieu qua cao.

CHNG II :
D BAO TRONG QUAN TR SAN XUAT
I. KHAI NIEM VE D BAO, CAC LOAI D BAO, TRNH T

THC HIEN D BAO.
Trong qua trnh hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh, cac quan tr gia thng phai a
ra cac quyet nh lien quan en nhng s viec se xay ra trong tng lai. e giup
cac quyet nh nay co o tin cay cao giam thieu mc o rui ro, ngi ta a a ra
ky thuat d bao; V the ky thuat d bao la het sc quan trong va can thiet cho cac
doanh nghiep, ac biet la ngay nay cac doanh nghiep o lai hoat ong trong moi
trng cua nen kinh te th trng ma o luon dien ra nhng s canh tranh gay gat
gia cac doanh nghiep vi nhau.
Vay d bao la g ? Chung ta co the hieu d bao qua khai niem d bao nh sau.
1. Khai niem d bao :
D bao la khoa hoc va nghe thuat nham tien oan trc cac hien tng va s
viec se xay ra trong tng lai c can c vao cac tai lieu nh sau :
. Cac day so lieu cua cac thi ky qua kh.
. Can c vao ket qua phan tch cac nhan to anh hng oi vi ket qua d bao.
- Can c vao cac kinh nghiem thc te a c uc ket.
* Nh vay, tnh khoa hoc ay the hien cho :
. Can c vao day so lieu cua cac thi ky qua kh
. Can c vao ket qua phan tch cac nhan to anh hng oi vi ket qua d bao.
* Tnh nghe thuat c the hien : Can c vao cac kinh nghiem thc te va t
nghe thuat phan oan cua cac chuyen gia, c phoi ket hp vi ket qua d bao,
e co c cac quyet nh vi o chnh xac va tin cay cao.
2. Cac loai d bao : Gom 2 loai :
. Can c vao thi oan cua d bao
. Can c vao noi dung cong viec can d bao.
a. Can c vao thi oan cua d bao : Da vao thi oan d bao ta phan biet
ba loai d bao sau :
- D bao dai han : Co thi oan d bao t 3 nam tr len. Loai nay thng can
cho viec lap cac d an san xuat san pham mi, la chon cac day chuyen cong
nghe, thiet b mi, m rong cac doanh nghiep hien co hoac d bao tam v mo nh
: D bao toc o tang trng kinh te, ty le lam phat, ty le tai nguyen, ty le tang dan
so, chnh sach che o cua nha nc ve viec tang giam thue v.v...
- D bao trung han : Co thi oan t 3 thang en 3 nam. Loai nay thng dung
e d bao phng hng phat trien san pham trong tng lai, chu ky kinh doanh,
Quan tr san xuat - 10 -
hay d bao cong nghe mi, ngoai ra con e lap ke hoach san xuat, ke hoach tai
chnh v.v...
- D bao ngan han : Co thi oan d bao t hn ba thang. Cac doanh nghiep
dung e d bao so lng san pham dch vu can cho thang ti, cac nhu cau nguyen
vat lieu can mua. So nhan cong lao ong can ao tao, bo sung trong thang mi...
Loai d bao nay rat thiet thc vi cac x nghiep.
b. Can c vao noi dung cong viec can d bao.
Tren c s nhng noi dung cong viec can d bao, ta co the chia lam ba loai d
bao sau :
- D bao kinh te : Thng do cac c quan nghien cu, cac bo phan t van kinh
te nha nc thc hien, nham d bao cac ch tieu ve : Toc o tang trng kinh te, ty
le lam phat, ty le tang ngan sach v.v... Cac ch tieu nay co gia tr ln trong viec ho
tr cho cong tac d bao trung han, dai han cua cac doanh nghiep.
- D bao ky thuat cong nghe : Thng do cac chuyen gia trong cac lnh vc
ac biet thc hien nh nganh nang lng nguyen t, dau kh, ien t v.v....
- D bao nhu cau : Thc chat loai d bao nay la d kien, tien oan ve doanh so
ban ra cua cac doanh nghiep. T o giup cho cac doanh nghiep nay xac nh c
cac loai va so lng san pham, dch vu ma ho can tao ra trong tng lai. Thong qua
ket qua d bao nhu cau, cac doanh nghiep se co c cai quyet nh ung ve quy
mo san xuat va hoat ong cua doanh nghiep mnh.
V vay ma loai d bao nay c cac nha quan tr san xuat ac biet quan tam,
cung chnh v the ma trong ky thuat d bao chung ta se e cap sau en loai d bao
nhu cau nay.
3. Trnh t thc hien d bao : 8 bc
Bc 1 : Xac nh muc tieu d bao
Bc 2 : Xac nh thi oan d bao
(- Dai han dung phng phap phan tch san pham cung loai, phng phap
chuyen gia
- Ngan han : Phng phap tnh toan)
Bc 3 : La chon phng phap d bao
(nh tnh hay nh lng)
Bc 4 : Chon oi tng e tien hanh thu thap thong tin
(Co ngha la tien hanh chon mau : Tc chon mat hang, san pham pho bien nhat,
mang tnh ai dien cao)
Bc 5 : Tien hanh thu thap thong tin.
(Bang cach : Phong van khach hang, phong van cac chuyen gia, dung bang cau
hoi phat cho khach hang hoac chuyen gia, trao oi vi khach hang qua ien thoai,
phng phap oi ngu marketing)
Bc 6 : X ly thong tin. Can loai bo nhng thong tin thieu chnh xac, nhng
thong tin d khong can thiet.
Bc 7 : Xac nh xu hng d bao : Co 4 xu hng
- Xu hng tuyen tnh (Tang hoac giam theo thi gian - dung phng phap bnh
phng be nhat)
- Xu hng chu ky
- Xu hng thi vu
- Xu hng ngau nhien (Khong tuan theo mot quy luat nao)
Bc 8 : Tien hanh phan tch, tnh toan :
Sau khi co c ket qua d bao, cac quan tr gia can a ra c nhng quyet
nh thch hp ve hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep mnh.
II. CAC PHNG PHAP D BAO THEO THI GIAN

e la chon c phng phap d bao thch hp, ngi ta can phai khao sat chu
ky song cua san pham. Va ay la mot nhan to quan trong tac ong en d bao nhu
cau.
Phat
Doanh Chn muoi
trien
so Suy thoai
Gii thieu
Thi gian
SD: P2 nh tnh P2 nh lng P2 nh tnh
(khong co (Co so lieu QK) (mac du co
SLQK) SLQK nhng
khong giup ch)
Thong thng cac san pham c th trng chap nhan eu co chu ky song trai qua
bon giai oan la gii thieu - phat trien - chn muoi - suy thoai
- Trong giai oan au (gii thieu) : Do doanh nghiep cha co so lieu, tham ch
khong co so lieu qua kh v the phng phap d bao trong giai oan nay thng
da vao ieu tra thc te tren th trng, vao nhan xet, phan oan cua cac chuyen
gia hoac bang cach ngoai suy vi cac san pham cung loai khac co tren th trng.
Nh vay ay ta s dung cac phng phap nh tnh.
- Trong cac giai oan sau (phat trien va chn muoi) : Do thi iem nay co
nhieu so lieu trong qua kh nen ngi ta thng dung phng phap thong ke e d
bao - Tc la cac phng phap nh lng.
- Trong giai oan suy thoai : Mac du nguon so lieu thong ke qua kh rat doi dao
nhng chung lai khong giup ch g cho viec d bao suy giam se xay ra nh the nao.
Do o giai oan xay ra lai phai tien hanh cac phng phap nh tnh (giong giai
oan au). Tc la phai dung cach anh gia, khao sat th trng, phng phap ngoai
suy oi vi cac san pham tng t a c theo doi trong nhng nam qua.
Sau ay chung ta se lan lt xet cac phng phap d bao : nh tnh - nh
lng
A. Cac phng phap nh tnh : Nham giai quyet ve chat, gom cac phng
phap thng dung sau :

1. Phng phap lay y kien cua hoi ong ieu hanh :
Ngi ta tap hp cac chuyen gia au nganh ve lnh vc ma ho phu trach, cung
vi cac chuyen vien ve marketing, tai chnh, san xuat trong doanh nghiep lai. Sau
o lay y kien cua ho ve noi dung, lnh vc can d bao. Phng phap nay co :
. u : Nhanh va de (Ch can tap hp cac chuyen gia)
. Nhc : Thieu khach quan do y kien cua cac ngi c hoi trong hoi ong
thng b le thuoc bi y kien ngi lanh ao cao nhat.
2. Phng phap lay y kien cua nhan vien ban hang :
Do nhng nhan vien ban hang la nhng ngi thng hieu ro nhu cau va th hieu
cua ngi tieu dung. V the ho co the d oan c lng hang co the ban c
trong thi gian ti tai khu vc mnh ban hang.
Neu chung ta tap hp y kien cua cac nhan vien ban hang cac khu vc khac
nhau, ta se co c lng d bao tong hp ve nhu cau oi vi loai san pham can d
bao.
Phng phap nay co :
. u iem : Sat vi nhu cau khach hang.
. Nhc : Phu thuoc vao anh gia chu quan cua nhan vien ban hang
Thng co hai xu hng :
+ Xu hng lac quan qua (anh gia cao lng hang ban ra cua mnh)
+ Xu hng bi quan qua (Muon giam nguon hang xuong e de at nh mc).
3. Phng phap lay y kien cua khach hang
Can lay y kien cua cac khach hang hien tai cung nh cac khach hang a co ke
hoach mua hang trong tng lai. Cong viec nay co the do bo phan ban hang hoac
bo phan nghien cu th trng cua doanh nghiep tien hanh hoac co the thong qua
oi ngu cong tac vien ve marketing (Thng dung cac sinh vien)
Cong viec tien hanh thng la :
- Phong van khach hang (trc tiep hoac qua ien thoai)
- Dung bang cau hoi (Kem theo phong b, dan tem)
. u iem : Khach quan (Do khach hang anh gia noi ve san pham can d bao)
. Nhc : Kho thu thap thong tin.
4. Phng phap Delphi (Phng phap chuyen gia trong va ngoai x
nghiep)
e thc hien phng phap nay can to chc ban nhan s e:
- Soan va in san cac cau hoi ve lnh vc can d bao.
- a cac cau hoi en cho cac chuyen gia
- Tap hp va tong hp y kien tra li cua cac chuyen gia
- Qua trnh tren c lap lai o 2 - 3 lan cho en ket qua thong nhat.
. u iem :
- Khach quan : V cac chuyen gia trong va ngoai x nghiep moi ngi eu co
quan iem rieng, va quan iem o khong b chi phoi bi ngi khac do tranh c
cac lien he ca nhan vi nhau.
- Chnh xac : V cac chuyen gia nay eu la chuyen gia au nganh moi lnh vc
. Nhc iem : Ton kem (V phai tra thu lao cho cac chuyen gia ngoai x
nghiep).

B. Cac phng phap nh lng :
Nhu
cau
10 ngan lt
Thi gian
1. Phng phap tiep can gian n :

phng phap nay, ngi ta d bao nhu cau cua thi ky sau (n) bang vi so
thc te cua thi ky trc o (n - 1)
V du : San lng cua doanh nghiep nc mam Lien Thanh vao thang 10/1996
la 10 ngan lt, do o d bao trong thang 11/1996 cung la 10 ngan lt.
. u iem : D bao nhanh chong, n gian.
. Nhc :
- Ap at thi ky trc cho thi ky sau do o thieu chnh xac.
- Khong nghien cu c s bien ong cua th trng trong tng thi ky do o
khong thay c s bien ong cua th trng.
. Pham v ap dung : X nghiep quy mo nho.
2. Phng phap bnh quan di ong gian n :

Theo phng phap nay, ket qua d bao cua thi ky sau bang so bnh quan cua
tng thi gian ngan co khoang cach eu nhau cua nhng thi ky trc o.
Nh vay ta co so d bao : y4 = y1 + y2 + y3
3
y5 = y 2 + y 3 + y 4
3
Trong o : y1, y2, y3 : day so thi gian (thang, quy, nam)
y4, y5 : So d bao BQD theo tng nhom 3 thang mot
V du
Tnh so BQD theo tng nhom 3 thang mot cua mot ca hang co so san pham
ban ra nh sau :
Thang So lieu thc te Nhu cau d bao
1 10
2 12
3 11
4 13 (10+12+11) : 3 = 11
5 18 (12+11+13) : 3 = 12
6 21 (11+13+18) : 3 = 14
. u : n gian, de hieu, san bang c cac bien ong ngau nhien trong day so
thi gian.
. Nhc :
- Hoan toan da vao so lieu qua kh
- Can nhieu so lieu cua qua kh
- Cha anh gia c tam quan trong khac nhau cua cac so lieu cac thi
ky khac nhau.
. Pham vi ap dung : Day so lieu trong qua kh phai on nh (Khong bien ong).
3. Phng phap bnh quan di ong co he so :
Do cac so lieu mi xuat hien trong cac thi ky cuoi thng co gia tr ln hn
nhng so lieu xuat hien a lau. V the ngi ta s dung cac he so e nhan manh
gia tr cua cac so lieu gan nhat, va xay ra.
Cac he so c chon tuy theo kinh nghiem va s nhay cam cua ngi d bao.
D bao c tnh theo cong thc :
D bao cho (So thc te cua thi ky th n x he so cua thi ky th n)

Thi ky th (n+1) = cac he so
V du : Theo v du tren, vi he so thang ke trc la 3, cach 2 thang la 2, cach 3

thang la 1, tnh BQD nhom 3 thang 1

Thang So lieu
Nhu cau d bao
thc te
1 10
2 12
3 11
4 13 (11x3 + 12x2 + 10x1) : 6 = 11,17
5 18 (13x3 + 11x2 + 12x1) : 6 = 12,17
6 21 (18x3 + 13x2 + 11x1) : 6 = 15,17
. u iem :
- anh gia c tam quan trong khac nhau cua cac so lieu cac thi ky khac
nhau.
- Co bieu th xu hng phat trien trong tng lai qua cac he so
- San bang c cac bien ong ngau nhien trong day so thi gian.
. Nhc : - Van can nhieu so lieu qua kh
. Pham vi ap dung : Trong trng hp day so qua kh on nh (khong ap dung
vi so lieu bien ong)
4. Phng phap san bang so mu :
Phng phap nay cung la ky thuat tnh so bnh quan di ong, nhng khong can
nhieu so lieu cua qua kh.
Cong thc tnh nh sau :
Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1) (1)
Trong o
Ft : So d bao cua thi ky t
Ft-1 : So d bao cua thi ky (t-1)
At-1 : So thc te cua thi ky (t-1)
:Trong so hay he so san bang so mu (0 1)
(T chon sao cho phu hp va t sai so)
(Thc te : Ngi ta lay em kiem chng vi so lieu thc te xem co phu hp
hay khong va s phu hp o co trong mot thi gian dai khong. Neu khong th phai
ieu chnh ).
V du : Tnh nhu cau d bao cho X nghiep A, c the hien qua cac san pham
thc te cua cac thang nh sau :
So lieu
Thang Nhu cau d bao, cho =2
thc te
1 10 F1 = 9 gia nh
2 15 F2 = F1 + (A1 - F1) = 9 + 0,2 (10 - 9) = 9,2
3 17 F3 = F2 + (A2 - F2) = 9,2 + 0,2(15 - 9,2) = 10,36
. u iem :
- Can t so lieu qua kh
- Co bieu th xu hng phat trien trong tng lai thong qua he so .
- Ap dung may tnh rat thuan li.
. Nhc : - Phai tnh tng thi ky mot do o mat cong.
- De b sai lien i (D bao thi ky trc sai
d bao thi ky sau se sai)
. Pham vi ap dung : Phng phap nay c ap dung cho moi trng hp.
* Ta co the thay oi hang so san bang e xet en trong so ln hn cua nhng
so lieu cac th gian gan hn (khi cho ln), hoac at nang trong so vao cac so
lieu trc o na (khi cho nho).
e giai thch khai niem trong so, ta co the viet phng trnh (1) lai nh sau :
Ft = At-1 + (1 - ) At-2 + (1 - )2At-3+...+(1-)n-1 At-n (2)
Qua (2) ta thay : Khi tang len th tam quan trong cua cac so lieu qua kh cang
xa cang nho dan.
Khi at en tr so cc ai bang 1 ( = 1), th phng trnh (2) cho ta :
Ft = 1,0.At-1
Luc nay d bao cho giai oan ti ung bang nhu cau thc te cua giai oan va
qua (Ngi ta goi cach d bao nay la d bao theo mo hnh ngay th).
Qua bang di day se cho ta thay ro khai niem tren
Tam quan trong cua cac thi ky

He so (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
(1 - (1-) (1-) (1-)4
2 3
)
= 0,1 0,1 0,09 0,081 0,073 0,066
= 0,5 0,5 0,25 0,125 0,063 0,031
Nh vay : - Khi = 0,5 : Ta co the thay d bao mi c tnh toan gan nh hoan
toan da vao nhu cau trong ba, bon giai oan gan ay - Tc la cac thi ky 3 - 4 van
con tac ong, nhng thi ky 5 th tac ong khong con ang ke na.
- Ngc lai khi = 0,1 : Th d bao t at nang trong so vao giai oan mi va
qua ma vao nhieu giai oan a qua trc o. Tc la cac thi ky 4, 5 van con tac
ong, tham ch thi ky 6 cung van con tac ong.
(Luc nay ta phai xet en nhieu so lieu trong qua kh hn).
* Chon he so san bang :
V mo hnh san bang so mu rat de s dung, nen c nhieu doanh nghiep, to
chc ap dung co ket qua. Tuy nhien, can phai chon he so sao cho thch hp e
at c ket qua d bao chnh xac - o la muc tieu cua mo hnh d bao san bang
so mu.
- Ta co the xac nh o chnh xac cua mo hnh d bao bang cach so sanh gia tr
d bao vi gia tr thc te a thu thap. Ta co :
Sai so d bao = Nhu cau thc te - d bao
e chon he so , ta da vao o lech tuyet oi bnh quan MAD (Mean Absolute
Deviation); MAD bang tong cac sai lech tuyet oi chia cho so thi ky tnh toan.
/cac sai so d bao/
MAD = ; ( n : so thi ky tnh toan)
n
MAD cang nho th tr so cang hp ly, v no cho ket qua d bao cang t sai.
V du : Trong 8 quy qua, Cang Vung Tau a boc d mot so ln gao t tau len
b. Cang a thc hien trong quy 1 la 180 tan, nhng con so d bao cung vi quy
nay la 175 tan. Hay chon mot trong 2 gia tr = 0,1 va = 0,5 e xem gia tr nao
thch hp hn.
ay ta can tnh o lech tuyet oi AD (Absolute Deviation) va o lech tuyet
oi bnh quan MAD. Theo tng he so . Nh vay, he so nao cho MAD be hn se
c chon. Ta co bang :
Lng
Vi = 0,1 Vi = 0,5
boc d
Quy Thc Lng
te (tan) Lng d bao c quy tron AD d bao AD
c
quy tron
1 180 175 5 175 5
2 168 176=175+0,1(180-175)=175,5 8 178 10
3 159 175=175,5+0,1(168-175,5)=174,75 16 173 14
4 175 173=174,75+0,1(159-174,75) = 173,18 2 166 9
5 190 173=173,18+0,1(175-173,18) = 173,36 17 170 20
6 205 175=173,36+0,1(190-173,36) = 175,02 30 180 25
7 180 178=175,02+0,1(205-175,02) =178,02 2 193 13
8 182 178=178,02+0,1(180-178,02) =178,22 4 186 4
9 ? Tong so o lech tuyet oi AD 84 100
Nh vay, ta co MAD ng vi 2 tr so nh sau :
84
- = 0,1 : MAD = = 10,5
8
100
- = 0,5 : MAD = = 12,5
8
Vay = 0,1 cho ket qua d bao chnh xac hn so vi = 0,5 (v co MAD nho
hn). Do o ta dung = 0,1 e d bao cho quy 9 tiep theo.
178,22 + 0,1 (182 - 178,22) = 179 tan.
5. Phng phap san bang so mu bac 2 (co nh hng)
Do phng phap san bang so mu gian n va xet tren, khong the hien ro xu
hng bien ong... ngi ta phai s dung them ky thuat ieu chnh xu hng - tc
la co nh hng. .c tien hanh theo ba bc sau :
. Bc 1 : Tnh nhu cau d bao thi ky t (Theo phng phap san bang so mu gian
n).
Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

. Bc 2 : Tnh ai lng nh hng cua thi ky t : Tt c tnh nh sau :
Tt = Tt-1 + (Ft - Ft-1)
Trong o : Tt : ai lng nh hng cua thi ky t
Tt-1 : ai lng nh hng cua (t-1)
(Lay thi ky au tien T1 = 0)
: He so san bang so mu bac 2 ma ta la chon, y ngha va cach s dung
he so nay cung giong nh he so (trong thc te phai chon sao cho
ng bieu dien c vuot thang - co nh hng)
Bc 3 : Tnh nhu cau d bao co nh hng cua thi ky t (a c vuot thang)
FiTt = Ft(h) = Ft + Tt
V du : Tnh nhu cau d bao co nh hng Ft(h) cua x nghiep A c the hien
qua so san pham thc te cua cac thang nh sau :
So
Thang Ft Tt Ft(h)
thc te
1 10 F1 = 9 T1 =0 F1(h) = 9
2 15 F2 =9+0,2(10-9) T2 =0+0,4(9,2-9)
=9,2 =0,08 F2(h) = 9,2+0,08 = 9,28
3 17 F3=9,2+0,2(15-9,2) T3 =0,08+0,4(10,36-9,2)
=10,36 =0,54 F3(h) =10,36+0,54 =10,9
Gia nh rang he so c chon : = 0,2; = 0,4 va gia nh d bao nhu cau
trong thang 1 la : 9 n v san pham; gia nh ai lng nh hng (ieu chnh)
thi ky au tren T1 = 0 ta se tnh c Ft, Tt, Ft(h) nh trong bang.
6. Phng phap bnh phng be nhat :

Phng phap nay c ap dung trong trng hp tang (giam) eu theo thi gian
(xu hng bien ong tuyen tnh)
Ta co phng trnh d bao : y = ax + b
Trong o :
x. y nx y Vi : x : So th t cac thi ky (thi gian)
a= n : So thi ky tnh toan (d bao)
x2 x 2 y : . So thc te (neu la thi ky qua
b = y ax kh)
y x . So d bao (neu la cac thi ky
y= ;x = tng lai)
n n
Lu y : Trng hp a > 0 : ng bieu dien i len; a < 0 : ng bieu dien doc
xuong; a = 0 : ng bieu dien nam ngang
D D D
(NC) (NC) (NC)
(y) (y) (y)
y = ax + b
y = ax + b a=0
a>0 y = ax + b
a<0
(x) t (x) t (x) t

V du : Mot doanh nghiep co so lieu thc te so lng san pham ban ra trong 7
thang c thong ke trong bang sau, hay dung phng phap bnh phng be nhat e
d bao nhu cau cho 2 thang tiep theo.

Thang(x) So thc te (y) x.y x2

1 40 40 1
2 50 100 4
3 55 165 9
4 65 260 16
5 60 300 25
6 75 450 36
7 80 560 49
2
x=28 y=425 x.y=1.875 x =140
Ta can tnh a va b
y 425 x 28
Ta tnh c : y = = = 60,71; x = = =4
n 7 n 7
Thay vao ta co :
xy nx y 1.875 7 4 60,71
a= = = 6,25
x 2 nx 2 140 7 16
b = y ax = 60,71 6,25 4 = 35,71
Vay ta co phng trnh ng khuynh hng la :
y = 6,25x + 35,71
D bao nhu cau cho 2 thang tiep theo (8 va 9) la :
y8 = 6,25 x 8 + 35,71 = 86 n v san pham.
y9 = 6,25 x 9 + 35,71 = 92 n v san pham.
7. Phng phap d bao theo khuynh hng co xet en bien ong thi vu :
- Do nhieu nguyen nhan nh : ieu kien thi tiet, tap quan cua ngi tieu dung
tng vung co khac nhau, hay vao cac dp tet, le, hoi, ngh he hang nam ma oi
vi mot so san pham, dch vu nhu cau th trng co tnh chat bien ong theo thi vu
trong nam (V du : Khach du lch en a Lat thng la theo mua : ma, nang, le,
tet, ngh he...)
e d bao nhu cau oi vi cac san pham, dch vu nay, ta can khao sat, mc o
bien ong cua nhu cau theo thi vu bang cach tnh he so (ch so) thi vu tren c s
day so thi gian qua kh a thong ke c :
Nhu cau bq cua thi ky th n
He so thi vu cua thi ky th n =
Nhu cau can bq cua 1 thi ky
y yi
Hay : I s = i ; y 0 =
y0 n
Trong o : Is : He so thi vu thi ky n
yi : Nhu cau bnh quan cua thi ky n (cua cac thang, nam cung ten)
y0 : Nhu cau bnh quan cua mot thi ky
n : La so thang (quy) x so nam trong day so thi gian.
- Vi phng phap nay, ta ch s dung e d bao cho tng thi ky, con muon d
bao cho ca nam th phai dung 1 trong 6 cach a trnh bay tren.
- Phng phap nay co the dung kep vi phng phap khac khi can.
V du : Ket hp vi phng phap bnh quan be nhat (ng khuynh hng bnh
quan) e tnh so d bao Yc e t o sau khi a tnh c he so thi vu Is; ta tnh
c nhu cau d bao co xet en bien ong thi vu la :
y
ys = yc x Is yc = ax + b; Is = i
y0
V du : Mot x nghiep co so lieu thong ke ve : So lng san pham ban ra cua 12
thang trong 2 nam 1994 va 1995 nh trong bang di ay. Hay tnh he so thi vu
cho cac thang.
(yi) (yi) (yi) (yo) (Is=yi/yo)

Thang NC He so thi vu
1994 1995 NC BQ theo t/ky BQ 1
th n t/ky
1 50 60 (50+60):2=55 98 55 : 98 = 0,56
2 60 60 (60+60):2=60 98 60 : 98 = 0,61
3 65 75 (65+75):2=70 98 70 : 98 = 0,71
4 80 80 (80+80):2=80 98 80 : 98 = 0,82
5 85 85 (85+85):2=85 98 85 : 98 = 0,87
6 95 95 (95+95):2=95 98 95 : 98 = 0,97
7 95 105 (95+105):2=100 98 100 : 98 = 1,02
8 100 110 (100+110):2=105 98 105 : 98 = 1,07
9 110 130 (110+130):2=120 98 120 : 98 = 1,22
10 125 135 (125+135):2=130 98 130 : 98 = 1,33
11 125 145 (125+145):2=135 98 135 : 98 = 1,38
12 130 150 (130+150):2=140 98 140 : 98 = 1,43
= 1.120 = 1.230
Ta co : nhu cau bnh quan cua mot thi ky (hay mot thang trong hai nam) =
yi 1120 + 1230
y0 = = 98
n 12 2
Nh vay, e tnh nhu cau d bao co xet en bien ong thi vu cho cac thang cua
cac nam 1996 va 1997, th ta phai co c so lng san pham d bao cua cac nam
1996 va 1997.
- Gia s, nhu cau d bao cua x nghiep 96 la : 1340 san pham.
Nh vay d bao thang 1/1996 se la :
1340
0,56 63 san pham
12
D bao thang 5/1996 se la
1340
0,87 97 san pham
12
- Trng hp cha co so lieu d bao nhu cau cua nam 1996 va 1997, ta phai tnh
so d bao yeu cau bang phng phap bnh phng be nhat.
Ta co :

So lng
Giai oan
Nam san pham xy x2
th (x)
(y)
1994 1 1.120 1.120 1
1995 2 1.230 2.460 4
x = 3 y=2.350 xy = 3.580 x2=5
xy nxy 3580 2 1,5 1175

.
a= = = 110
x x
2 2
5 2 1,5 2
x 3 y 2.350
x= = = 1,5 y= = = 1175
.
n 2 n 2
b = y ax = 1175
. 110 1,5
b = 1.010
Ham khuynh hng :
yc = ax + b = 110x + 1.010
yc = 110x + 1010
Ta c d bao nhu cau san pham cho nam 1996 va 1997:
y1996 = 110 x 3 + 1.010 = 1.340 san pham
y1997 = 110 x 4 + 1.010 = 1.450 san pham
Nh vay e xet en d bao co tnh en bien ong thi vu ta ch viec tnh theo
cong thc nh a tnh tren :
Ys = Yc x Is
III. D BAO THEO NGUYEN NHAN BANG PHNG PHAP

PHAN TCH TNG QUAN (PHNG PHAP D BAO NHAN
QUA)
Cac phng phap d bao trnh bay tren eu xem xet s bien ong cua ai
lng can d bao theo thi gian. Thong qua cac day so lieu thong ke c trong
qua kh.
Tuy nhien, trong thc te, ai lng can d bao con co the b tac ong bi cac
nhan to khac. Chang han so ban ra cua san pham co the lien quan en ngan sach
quang cao cua X nghiep hoac gia ban hay san lng lua theo cac nam thay oi tuy
theo lng phan bon a s dung trong cac nam o.
Nh vay, moi lien he nhan qua gia so san pham ban ra vi ngan sach quang
cao khong the bieu dien c di dang mot ham so chnh xac ma ch co the bieu
dien gan ung di dang mot ham tng quan, the hien bang mot ng hoi quy
tng quan.
Trong trng hp nay, so ban ra (ai lng can d bao) la bien phu thuoc, con
cac nhan to tac ong len no la bien oc lap.
Mo hnh d bao nhan qua nh lng c dung pho bien nhat la phan tch hoi
quy tuyen tnh (Ngoai ng hoi quy tng quan phi tuyen).
Sau ay ta se xem xet ng hoi quy tuyen tnh va mot bien oc lap (ch xet
en mot nhan to anh hng).
1. D bao theo tng nguyen nhan :
Ta co the s dung cung mot mo hnh toan hoc a dung trong phng phap bnh
phng be nhat cua phep chieu theo xu hng e thc hien viec phan tch hoi quy
tuyen tnh.
Bien phu thuoc ma ta muon d bao van la yc. Nhng bien oc lap x gi ay
khong con la bien thi gian nh trong cac phng phap d bao theo ng khuynh
hng na.
Phng trnh d bao : yc = ax + b
x : bien nguyen nhan (oc lap)
yc : . So thc te (neu la thi ky qua kh)
. So khu cau d bao (neu la thi ky tng lai)
a,b : Cac he so cua phng trnh
x. y nxy
Cac he so c tnh : a = ; b = y ax
x 2 nx 2
V du : Qua qua trnh kinh doanh, cang tin cua x nghiep X cho thay doanh so
ban hang cua mnh phu thuoc vao quy lng hang thang cua x nghiep. So lieu
thong ke c trong 6 nam (1985 - 1990) ve moi lien he tng quan nay c trnh
bay trong bang di ay. Ta ong thi s dung bang nay lam bang tnh.
Trong o : y : Doanh so ban hang cua cang tin hang nam (n v tnh : 106 ong)
x : Quy lng hang thang cua x nghiep (n v tnh : 108 ong)
Quy Doanh
Na Xy x2 y2
lng so ban
m
(x) (y)
1 1 2,0 2 1 4
2 3 3,0 9 9 9
3 4 2,5 10 16 6,25
4 2 2,0 4 4 4
5 1 2,0 2 1 4
6 7 3,5 24,5 49 12,25
x=18 y=15,0 xy=51,5 x2=80 y2=39,5
x 18 y 15
x= = = 3; y = = = 2,5
n 6 n 6
xy nxy 51,5 (6 3 2,5)
a= = = 0,25
x 2 nx 2 80 (6 32 )
b = y ax = 2,5 (0,25 3) = 1,75

Ta c phng trnh hoi quy :
yc = 0,25x + 1,75
Neu x nghiep d oan tong quy lng cho nam ti (th 7) la 600 trieu ong th
bo phan cang tin co the d bao da theo phng trnh hoi quy.
y7 = Doanh so ban (trieu ong) = 1,75 + (0,25 x 6)
= 3,25 trieu ong
* Lu y : e co so d bao tong quy lng cho nam th 7, ta phai thiet lap ham
khuynh hng theo thi gian (x) vi quy lng yc.
2. Xac nh sai chuan cua c oan.
Doanh so d bao 3,25.106 ong cua cang tin x nghiep x trong v du tren, goi la
iem c oan cua y. iem c oan la trung bnh thc hay gia tr mong i cua
phan bo cac gia tr ban hang co the co.
e o mc o chnh xac cua c oan (yc) ta phai tnh sai chuan cua ng hoi
quy tng quan, ky hieu la Sy1x
Tr so nay c goi o lech chuan cua hoi quy va c tnh bang phng trnh :
y 2 b y a xy
Sy , x = (n : so thi ky tnh toan)
n2
Vi v du tren va phng trnh : yc = 0,25x+1,75, ta tnh c Sy,x :
39 ,5 (1,75 15) ( 0,25 51,5)
Sy , x = = 0,09375 = 0,306.10
6

62
Vay o lech chuan cua c oan la : 306.000 ong
* Sai chuan cang nho th mc o chnh xac cua d bao cang cao. V the, neu s
dung nhieu phng phap d bao th phng phap nao co sai chuan nho nhat se
c chon dung.
Ta co ng bieu dien cac tr so thc te va d bao tren cung mot bieu o sau
ay :
Doanh so y 106 ong

cua 4,0
cang tin 3,25
3,0 yc = 1,75 + 0,25x
2,0
1,0
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Quy lng 108 ong
3. Xac nh he so tng quan :

He so tng quan (r) cho biet mc o quan he gia x va yc
r nhan gia tr gia -1 va +1 (-1 r +1)

n xy x y
r=
[n x 2
] [
( x) 2 n y 2 ( y) 2 ]
. Khi r = 1 : Chng to gia x va yc co quan he chat che (quan he ham so)
. Khi r = 1 : He so tng quan hoan hao (c tang 1x tang 1y)
. Khi 0 < r < 1 : He so tng quan dng (thuan) (tc x y tang theo)
. Khi r=0 : Khong co tng quan (gia x va yc khong co lien he g)
. Khi r< 0 : He so tng quan am (nghch) (x y : VD : Mc song tang

nhu cau )
Tr lai v du tren, ta co :
(6 51,5) (18 15)

r= = 0,901
[6 80 18 ] [6 39,5 15 ]
2 2
Vi tr so nay chng to x va yc co tng quan chat che (v r gan 1)
* Moi quan he tng quan gia x va yc co the c bieu dien nh sau qua he so
tng quan r :
yc yc

(0 < r < 1) (r = 1) x r<0 r=0
x x x
4. D bao theo nhieu nguyen nhan :
Ta co phng trnh d bao :
yc = a1x1 + a2x2 + a3x3 + ... +anxn + b
Ap dung may tnh, giai c phng trnh va tnh c cac he so : a1, a2... an va
b
IV. KIEM TRA KET QUA D BAO :

Khi a co cac so lieu d bao c chap nhan (tnh bang cac phng phap neu
tren) Ta co the a ra e thc hien.
Tuy nhien, qua tng thi ky, cac so lieu thc te co the khong khp vi so lieu d
bao. Do o can phai tien hanh cong tac theo doi, giam sat va kiem soat d bao.
Neu mc o chenh lech gia thc te va d bao nam trong pham vi cho phep th
khong phai xet lai phng phap d bao a s dung. Ngc lai, neu chenh lech nay
qua ln vt khoi pham vi cho phep th can phai sa oi lai phng phap d bao
cho phu hp.
Viec kiem tra ket qua d bao bang 2 ch tieu sau ay :
1. Sai so tuyet oi bnh quan :
MAD =
So thc te cua
Thi ky th n
So d bao cua
Thi ky th n
=
Sai so d bao
So thi ky khao sat n

. MAD cang nho cang tot; tr so cang hp ly phng phap d bao cang
chnh xac.
2. Tn hieu theo doi (Tn hieu d bao)
Viec giam sat va bao am thc hien tot d bao la dung tn hieu theo doi. o la
mot mc o anh gia chat lng d bao ung sai
Tn hieu theo doi c tnh bang Tong sai so d bao dch chuyen (RSFE)
(Running sum of the forecast error) chia cho o lech tuyet oi trung bnh (MAD)
Tn hieu theo doi =

( So thc te cua
Thi ky th n )
So d bao cua
Thi ky th n
Sai so tuyet oi bnh quan
sai so
Tn hieu theo doi =
MAD
3. Gii han kiem tra.

Gii han kiem tra gom gii han tren va gii han di. Pham vi cho phep (chap
nhan c) nam gia gii han tren va di.
Khi tn hieu theo doi bat au vt ra khoi pham vi cho phep th can phai bao
ong. Luc nay phng phap d bao a s dung khong con thch hp na ma can co
ieu chnh sa oi (chang han neu a dung phng phap san bang so mu th can
phai ieu chnh he so san bang ).
Tn hieu theo doi dng cho ta biet nhu cau ln hn d bao. tn hieu la am co
ngha la nhu cau thap hn d bao.
Chung ta co the thay qua s o sau :

Tn hieu bao ong Tn hieu theo doi

MADS
Gii han kiem tra tren

+4
Pham vi chap nhan
0
-4
Gii han kiem tra di
Thi gian
Viec xac nh pham vi chap nhan c, chu yeu da vao kinh nghiem, sao cho
khong qua hep va khong qua rong.
Neu qua hep, tc la gii han qua thap en noi vi mot sai so nho cung b bao
ong, dan en viec phai ieu chnh phng phap d bao.
Ngc lai, neu rong qua, tc la gii han qua cao th y ngha thc te cua cac so
lieu d bao se giam i rat nhieu. ieu nay co ngha la ta a bo qua cac d bao toi
ma khong ieu chnh.
Mot so chuyen gia d bao da vao quan he : 1MAD 0,8 o lech chuan a a
ra pham vi chap nhan c nen lay toi a la bang 4 MADS
V du : Hieu banh Nh Lan a tien hanh d bao nhu cau cho 6 quy ong thi a
thong ke c nhu cau thc te trong 6 quy o (trong bang di ay) ve banh m
ngot (n v : 1.000 cai banh). Hay xac nh tn hieu theo doi va cho biet tn hieu
a vt khoi pham vi cho phep 4 MADS hay cha ?
Sai Sai o
Nhu D so Sai so lech Tn
Quy cau bao Sai dch so d tch tuyet hieu
thc nhu so chuye bao luy oi theo
te cau n /sai /sai BQ doi
so/ so/ MAD
sai so
1 90 100 -10 -10 10 10 10 -1
2 95 100 -5 -15 5 15 7,5 -2
3 115 100 +15 0 15 30 10 0
4 100 110 -10 -10 10 40 10 -1
5 125 110 +15 +5 15 55 11 +0,45
6 140 110 +30 +35 30 85 14,2 +2,5
MAD = Cac sai so d bao 85 = 14,2

n 6
Tn hieu theo doi = sai so = 35 = +2,5 MADS

MAD 14,2

Nh vay tn hieu nay con nam trong pham vi cho phep, co xu hng thay oi t :
- 2MADS + 2,5 MADS.

CHNG III :
QUYET NH VE SAN PHAM
VA CONG SUAT
I. QUYET NH VE SAN PHAM VA DCH VU :

Quyet nh ve san pham, dch vu la quyet nh co anh hng lau dai oi vi s
phat trien cua doanh nghiep, tao li the canh tranh cho doanh nghiep.
Quyet nh ve san pham, dch vu gom co :
- La chon san pham va dch vu
- Phat trien, oi mi san pham va dch vu
- Thiet ke san pham, dch vu
1. La chon san pham va dch vu :

a. Cac nhan to anh hng en viec la chon san pham va dch vu :
ay la mot cong viec khong n gian, no chu nhieu anh hng cua cac nhan to
khac nhau. Cac nhan to nay bao gom :
- Nhu cau th trng, cung nh th hieu cua ngi tieu dung.
- Chu ky i song cua san pham. Can phai xac nh c san pham ma doanh
nghiep nh san xuat hien ang nam trong giai oan nao cua chu ky i song cua
no. Neu san pham ang trong giai oan suy giam th ro rang viec san xuat khong
mang lai li nhuan na.
. oi vi cac doanh nghiep mi thanh lap th khong nen chon san pham nay.
. oi vi cac doanh nghiep a va ang san xuat san pham nay th khong nen m
rong na.
- S trng cua doanh nghiep : S trng cua moi doanh nghiep nhieu khi mang
tnh truyen thong nhieu nam, hoac t i nay truyen sang i khac. V the, khi la
chon san pham ta nen quan tam en ieu nay e co the phat huy s trng cua
doanh nghiep nham tao ra cac san pham, dch vu ac trng oc ao cho rieng mnh,
nham cung co v the canh tranh tren th trng.
- Kha nang am bao ve cac nguon lc, ac biet la ve von, ky thuat va con
ngi.
- Kha nang ve quan tr.
b. Cac yeu cau cua san pham va dch vu :
Khi tien hanh la chon san pham va dch vu, ben canh viec xem xet cac nhan to
anh hng. Cac doanh nghiep con phai a ra nhieu phng an co li va phu hp
nhat.
e chon c mot phng an san pham gia cac phng an, th cac phng an
o phai c xem xet mot cach ky cang va thoa man cac yeu cau c ban sau ay.
- Ve gia tr s dung : Tc la san pham, dch vu can phai at en chat lng
mc nao ? Theo tieu chuan nao ? Cong dung, tien dung trong viec s dung, trong
van chuyen, bao quan, ton tr ra sao, cung nh kieu dang va bao b.
- Ve gia tr : c the hien qua gia ca. Gia san pham lai c xac nh tren c
s gia thanh - Gia ban phai xay dng sao cho c ngi tieu dung & th trng
chap nhan.
- Tnh kha thi cua san pham : c the hien bi s hp ly phan tch hp cua san
pham, co ngha la neu can san pham c la chon th co the a ra thc hien va
s dung.
c. Phng phap so sanh, la chon : Dung cay quyet nh.
Bat chap s phc tap cua quyet nh va ky thuat dung e phan tch quyet nh,
ngi ra quyet nh phai ng trc nhieu cach la chon va trang thai t nhien. Sau
ay la mot so khai niem se c dung khi tnh toan cua thuat toan cay quyet nh.
* Thuat ng :
. S la chon : La cach thc hanh ong hay chien lc ma ngi ra quyet nh
co the la chon.
. Trang thai t nhien : La viec xay ra hay tnh huong ma ngi ra quyet nh
kiem soat c rat t hoac tham ch khong kiem soat c.
* Cac ky hieu khi dung cay quyet nh :
. Nut quyet nh (hay nut chien lc), t o ta co the tien hanh chon mot
trong nhieu phng an la chon.
. Nut trang thai t nhien (hay nut bien co)
Nh vay, e bieu th cac cach la chon khac nhau cua nha quan tr, ta co the
dung cac ky hieu tren e lap cac cay quyet nh va bang quyet nh.
* Thuat toan cay quyet nh c tom tat nh sau :
- Liet ke ay u cac phng an san pham kha nang.
- Liet ke ay u cac ieu kien khach quan anh hng en viec ra quyet nh.
Chu yeu la can xem xet cac ieu kien ve th trng, nh th trng thuan li
(tot) - th trng khong thuan li (xau) - thng goi chung la cac bien co (event)
- Xac nh thu nhap, chi ph, li nhuan e biet ro mc li, lo tng ng vi tng
phng an ket hp vi tnh hnh tng th trng.
- Xac nh xac suat xay ra cua cac bien co.
- Ve cay quyet nh, a len cay cac gia tr li lo va xac suat cua cac bien co.
- Ch tieu dung e so sanh cac phng an la gia tr tien te mong i : Max EMV
(Expected Monetary Value)
V du : Cong ty X can la chon san pham e san xuat kinh doanh. Co 3 phng
an san pham c a ra e xem xet : San pham A, B, va C.
Tnh hnh th trng oi vi cac loai san pham nay co the la:
. Thuan li : Nhu cau cao ang ngay mot tang (tot)
. Hoac khong thuan li : Nhu cau thap va ang ngay cang giam (xau)
- Sau khi tnh toan thu, chi, bo phan marketing cua cong ty a xac nh c
bang li lo sau ay tnh cho mot hoat ong bnh thng cua cong ty.

VT : 106VN
Phng an Th trng tot Th trng xau
san pham (E1) (E2)
A 100 -40
B 140 -50
C 180 -60
- Neu khong ieu tra th trng, bo phan marketing cua cong ty c lng xac
suat xay ra cua cac loai th trng nh trong bang sau :
n v tnh : Xac suat
Phng an P(E1) P(E2) Cong
san pham
A 0,6 0,4 1,0
B 0,5 0,5 1,0
C 0,5 0,5 1,0
- e than trong, giam oc cong ty e xuat xet them phng an: at mua thong
tin ve th trng (co ieu tra th trng) cua mot cong ty dch vu thong tin. Chi ph
cho viec tien hanh ieu tra th trng va tnh toan xac suat can thiet tra cho cong ty
dch vu la : 8.106VN
Ket qua cua viec ieu tra th trng a tnh c cac loai xac suat trong bang
di ay, theo hai hng ieu tra :
. T1 : Hng thuan li (tc la ieu tra nhng ni thuan li hay vao nhng thi
gian thuan li). Vi xac suat la : 0,7 = P(T1)
. T2 :Hng khong thuan li (tc la ieu tra nhng ni hay vao thi gian khong
thuan li). Vi xac suat la : P(T2) = 0,3
VT : Xac suat.
Hng
San E1 E2 Cong
ieu tra
pham
T1 A 0,7 0,3 1,0
P(T1)=0,7 B 0,7 0,3 1,0
C 0,8 0,2 1,0
T2 A 0,2 0,8 1,0
P(T2)=0,7 B 0,2 0,8 1,0
C 0,3 0,7 1,0
- e tien hanh ve cay quyet nh, ta goi :
. S1 : Chien lc khong mua thong tin - ma s dung cac so lieu cua bo phan
marketing cua cong ty e tnh toan.

6
. S2 : Chien lc co mua thong tin - vi chi ph : 8.10 VN
. SA : Chien lc san xuat san pham A
. SB : Chien lc san xuat san pham B
. Sc :Chien lc san xuat san pham C
Cac trang thai t nhien (bien co)
. E1 : Th trng tot
. E2 : Th trng xau
. T1 : Hng ieu tra th trng thuan li
. T2 : Hng ieu tra th trng khong thuan li.
Cay quyet nh c bieu dien nh sau :
44 E1 (0,6) 100
6 E2 (0,4)
SA - 40
60 45 E1 (0,5)
SB 140
3 7
E2 (0,5)
SC - 50
S1 60 E1 (0,5)
8 180
88 E2 (0,5)
- 60
58 E1 (0,7)
1 100
9
SA E2 (0,3)
- 40
S2 83 E1 (0,7)
132 SB 140
10
T1 4 E2 (0,3)
- 50
96 SC 132
(-8) 0,7 E1 (0,8)
11 180
2 E2 (0,2)
- 60
-12 E1 (0,2)
T2 100
12
0,3 SA E2 (0,8)
- 40
-12 E1 (0,2)
12 SB 140
13
5 E2 (0,8)
- 50
SC 12
E1 (0,3)
14 180
E2 (0,7)
- 60
- e tnh EMV, ta tnh t ngon xuong goc, tc la t phai sang trai, tnh cho tng
nut mot. Ket qua tnh c ghi tren pha tren nut o.
oi vi cac nut bien co (nut tron) : khi tnh can xet en xac suat do ta chu ong
chon, vi nut nay ta chon theo tieu chuan : Max EMV Ta tnh c EMV nh sau :
EMV6 = 100 x 0,6 - 40 x 0,4 = 60 - 16 = 44.106 VN
EMV7 = 140 x 0,5 - 50 x 0,5 = 70 - 25 = 45.106

6
EMV8 = 180 x 0,5 - 60 x 0,5 = 90 - 30 = 60.10
EMV3 = max EMV6, EMV7, EMV8 = max 44, 45, 60 = 60.106
EMV9 = 100 x 0,7 - 40 x 0,3 = 70 - 12 = 58.106
EMV10 = 140 x 0,7 - 50 x 0,3 = 98 - 15 = 83.106
EMV11 = 180 x 0,8 - 60 x 0,2 = 144 - 12 = 132.106
EMV4 = max 58, 83, 132 = 132.106
EMV12 = 100 x 0,2 - 40 x 0,8 = 20 - 32 = -12.106
EMVB = 140 x 0,2 - 50 x 0,8 = 28 - 40 = -12.106
EMV14 = 180 x 0,3 - 60 x 0,7 = 54 - 42 = 12.106
EMV5 = max -12,-12, 12 = 12.106
EMV2 = 132 x 0,7 - 12 x 0,3 = 92,4 + 3,6 = 96 x 106
V nhanh S2 la nhanh co mua thong tin, vi gia 8.106 VN, do o ky vong li
nhuan cua chien lc nay con lai:
96 - 8 = 88.106 VN
Do o : EMV1 = Max 60,80 = 88.106VN
- Ket qua ta c :
. Gia S1, va S2 : nen chon chien lc S2, co ngha la trc khi quyet nh chon
san pham nao th cong ty nen at mua thong tin ve viec ieu tra th trng.
. Theo nhanh T1 (Hng ieu tra thuan li) : Cong ty nen chon chien lc Sc, tc
la san xuat loai san pham C.
. Theo nhanh T2 (hng ieu tra khong thuan li) : Cong ty cung nen chon chien
lc Sc tc la san xuat loai san pham c.
Nh vay, gia tr tien te (li nhuan) mong i EMV cua Cong ty X trong mot nam
se at gia tr max la 88.106 VN
II. QUYET NH VE CONG SUAT :

1. Quan tr nhu cau :
Viec xac nh ung an kch c thiet b cua mot doanh nghiep la yeu to het sc
quan trong cho s thanh cong cua chnh doanh nghiep o. V the, ta can nghien
cu, xem xet cac khai niem va ky thuat cua viec hoach nh cong suat nham xac
nh cong suat thch hp hay nang lc cua cong nghe a c doanh nghiep la
chon.
Trc het ta xet vi mot cong suat co san nao o, lam the nao co the thoa man
c nhu cau e ra.
Ta biet, quan tr gia co the co kha nang thay oi nhu cau.
- Trng hp nhu cau vt qua cong suat : Doanh nghiep co the n gian cat
giam nhu cau bang cach nang gia ban, tang thi gian at hang va giam hoa hong
cac ai ly.
- Trng hp cong suat vt qua nhu cau : Doanh nghiep co the kch thch nhu
cau bang cach giam gia hay tang cng hoat ong marketing hoac thay oi san
pham cho thch nghi vi th trng (nh thay oi mau ma, quy cach, kieu dang san
pham)
Mot van e khac ve cong suat ma nha quan tr co the gap phai la nhu cau bien
oi theo mua hay theo chu ky. e giai quyet van e nay, doanh nghiep can phai
a ra nhng mat hang thch hp theo mua e bu ap doanh so nhng mat hang
khac tieu thu t.
V du : Trong mua kho, cac nha may c kh mien Nam nen san xuat may bm
nc hay xe cai tien, con mua ma th san xuat may say hay hop so thuyen tau.
2. Quan tr cong suat :
Cong suat la lng san pham toi a do cong nghe mang lai trong mot thi oan,
c coi la toc o san xuat trong mot n v thi gian. Chang han nh lng sat
thep c san xuat ra trong mot tuan (tan/tuan) hoac trong mot nam (tan/nam).
Viec tnh toan cong suat mot so cong ty nhieu khi rat n gian, ch viec thong
ke so n v san pham toi a lam ra trong mot n v thi gian nao o.
Tuy nhien mot so doanh nghiep khac th viec tnh toan cong suat lai co phan
kho khan hn, nhat la cac khu vc dch vu.
V du : Ngi ta tnh cong suat cua benh vien theo so ging benh, cong suat
cua khach san theo so buong ging on khach v.v...
V vay, e xac nh cong suat ta can nghien cu cac van e sau ay :
a. Cong suat ly thuyet :
La cong suat ln nhat co the at c trong cac ieu kien san xuat ly thuyet.
May moc, thiet b chay suot 24 gi/ngay va 365 ngay/nam.
Cong suat nay c tnh e biet gii han toi a cua may moc thiet b (thc te
khong the at c).
b. Cong suat thiet ke :
La cong suat co the at c trong cac ieu kien san xuat bnh thng nh :
- May moc thiet b hoat ong bnh thng, khong b gian oan v nhng ly do
khong c d tnh trc nh b hong hoc, b cup ien...
- Cac au vao c am bao ay u.
- Thi gian lam viec trong nam phu hp vi che o lam viec quy nh trc .
Chang han : 300 ngay/nam moi ngay 1 ca, moi ca 8 gi.
Cong suat thiet ke c tnh toan da vao cong suat thiet ke cua may moc thiet
b chu yeu trong mot gi (lay theo catalogue) nhan vi so gi lam viec trong mot
nam.
c. Cong suat mong i - con goi la cong suat co hieu qua :
Thong thng trong thc te cac ieu kien san xuat cung hiem khi at c ieu
kien bnh thng ma van hay xay ra nhng truc trac ve ky thuat, ve to chc, ve
viec cung cap au vao v.v...
Do o, trong tnh toan ta ch nen tnh vi cong suat mong i, toi a co the at
ti 92% cong suat thiet ke e e phong cac bat trac co the xay ra trong qua trnh
san xuat.

Ty le nay c goi la mc o s dung cong suat hay cong suat hieu qua. No ch
n gian la so phan tram c s dung thc te cua cong suat thiet ke.
Ta co :
Cong suat mong i
o s dung hay cong suat hieu qua =
Cong suat thiet ke
Nh vay, o s dung hay cong suat hieu qua la cong suat toi a ma x nghiep co
the mong i e thc hien cac loai san pham bang cac phng phap ieu o vi
chat lng chuan cho trc.
d. San lng thc te - cong suat thc te :
- Do san lng thc te thong thng khong at c 100% cong suat mong i,
v vay phat sinh mot ty le chenh lech c goi la hieu nang :
San lng thc te at c
Hieu nang =
San lng ng vi cong suat mong i.
- Cong suat thc te hay cong suat c tnh la so o cong suat co the s dung
c cua mot thiet b ac biet. Cong suat thc te luon t hn cong suat thiet ke.
Ta co :
Cong suat thc te (c tnh) = (Cong suat thiet ke) x (Mc o s dung cong suat
hieu qua) x (Hieu nang).
V du : Nha may Libico co mot phan xng san xuat banh quy. Thiet b co hieu
nang la 90% va o s dung la 80%.
Co 3 day chuyen c dung e san xuat banh quy. Moi day chuyen co 8 gi lam
viec trong mot ca, moi ngay lam viec 3 ca, moi tuan lam viec 7 ngay. Cong suat
thiet ke cua mot day chuyen la 65kg banh quy/gi.
Hay tnh cong suat thc te (san lng thc te) trong mot tuan :
Ta co :
Cong suat (san lng) thc te =[(65 x 3)(7 x 3 x 8)(0,8 x 0,9)]= 23587,2 kg/tuan.
e. Cong suat hoa von - cong suat toi thieu :
Cong suat toi thieu la cong suat tng ng vi iem hoa von. Do o khong the
chon cong suat cua doanh nghiep thap hn cong suat hoa von, v lam nh vay se
a doanh nghiep en cho thua lo.
Muc ch cua ky thuat phan tch hoa von la tm ra mot iem bieu hien bang
ong hoac so n v ma o chi ph bang thu nhap. iem nay c goi la iem
hoa von.
Muon phan tch hoa von, ta phai xac nh c ph co nh, ph bien oi va thu
nhap.
- Ph co nh la chi ph gia thanh khong thay oi theo san lng san xuat. Tc la
chi ph tiep tuc hien hu ngay ca khi khong co n v san pham nao c lam ra. V
du nh : Khau hao, thue va lai suat ngan hang.
- Ph bien oi (bien ph) : la chi ph thay oi theo so lng san pham c lam
ra. Thanh phan chu yeu cua bien ph la : Nhan cong va nguyen vat lieu.
* e xay dng s o iem hoa von, ta thc hien qua 8 bc sau :
Bc 1 : Xay dng he truc toa o, trong o : Truc hoanh bieu th san lng va
cong suat thiet ke.
Truc tung bieu th tong doanh thu (Doanh thu thuan : a tr thue doanh thu) va
chi ph.
Bc 2 : Bieu dien ng doanh thu : La mot c thang i qua goc toa o.
Bc 3 : Bieu dien nh ph : La mot ng thang song song vi truc hoanh
Bc 4 : Bieu dien ng bien ph : La mot ng thang i qua goc toa o va

bien thien ty le theo san lng san xuat.
Bc 5 : Bieu dien ng tong chi ph gia thanh : La mot ng thang song

song vi ng bien ph nhng c xep chong vi ng nh ph.
Bc 6 : Giao iem cua ng tong doanh thu vi ng tong chi ph gia thanh
la iem hoa von can tm.
Bc 7 : T iem hoa von, giong xuong truc hoanh ta xac nh c.
- San lng hoa von.
- Cong suat hoa von hay mc o hoat ong hoa von.
Bc 8 : T iem hoa von, giong sang truc tung ta xac nh c doanh thu hoa
von can tm.

Doanh ng
thu doanh thu TR
chi ph
lai TC
Breakever point
VC=Vx
HV
DT
A
Fc
Lo
- HVCS CS&SL an toan Cong suat
- HV SL San lng
* Ta co cong thc tnh doanh thu, san lng va cong suat hoa von nh sau :
Goi P - Gia ban 1 n v san pham (price)
x - So n v san pham san xuat ra (san lng)
Fc - Tong chi ph co nh (Fix cost)
V - Chi ph bien oi cho moi n v san pham
Vc - Tong chi ph bien oi (Variable cost)
Tc - Tong chi ph (Total cost) Fc + Vx
TR - Tong doanh thu (Total Revenue) = Px
Wi - Ty trong doanh so moi mat hang trong tong doanh so
i = Moi san pham
Tai iem hoa von th tong doanh thu bang tong chi ph, ngha la :
TR = TC Hay Px = Fc + Vx Rut x ra ta co :
. HVSL(x) = Fc/(P-V)
. oi vi trng hp la san pham n oc :
FC FC FC
. HVDT = HVSL(x) x P = xP= =
P-V (P-V)/P 1-V/P
- oi vi trng hp co nhieu loai san pham :
FC
. HVDT =
[(1-Vi/Pi)Wi]
HVSL
. HVCS = x 100(%)
San lng 100% CS thiet ke
HVDT
Hay = x 109%
Doanh thu 100% CS thiet ke
V du 1 : Hay xac nh doanh thu va san lng hoa von cho mot loai san pham
sau ay.
Lop xe gan may cua nha may che bien cao su BH co nh ph chung cho ca nam
la : 100.000.000 ong. Ph nguyen lieu la : 15.000 /chiec, ph nhan cong la : 7.500
/chiec. Gia ban la : 40.000 /chiec.
- Ta co doanh thu hoa von :
FC 100.000.000
HVDT = = = 228.571.000
1 - V/P 1-(15.000+7.500)/40.000
- San lng hoa von c tnh nh sau :
FC 100.000.000
HVSL = = = 5.714 chiec
P-V 40.000 - (15.000 + 7.500)
V du 2 : Hay xac nh doanh thu hoa von khi doanh nghiep san xuat va ban
nhieu loai san pham sau ay :
Ban chu nhiem cau lac bo a tach doanh so cau lac bo thanh bon loai va c
lng chi ph, gia ban tng n v cung nh san lng co the tieu thu nh sau :
- Loai hang uong : (ru + bia) hang nam phuc vu khoang 30.000 ly. Gia ban
trung bnh la : 5.000/ly, chi ph : 2.500
- Loai hang an : n v c xac nh la suat an, san lng mong moi la 100.000
suat, gia trung bnh la : 10.000 /suat, chi ph la 5.000 ong.
- Loai o dung trang mieng : Lng ban mong moi la : 10.000 n v, gia ban
moi n v la : 2.500/.v, chi ph la : 1.000.
- Loai banh sandwiches : Lng ban mong moi la 20.000 cai. Gia ban la
4.000/cai. Chi ph moi cai la 2.000 . Chi ph co nh hang thang la 1.800.000 va
2.000.000 moi thang ve phuc vu giai tr.
Ta tnh doanh thu hoa von theo cong thc sau :
FC
HVDT =
[(1-Vi/Pi)Wi)
FC : Ph co nh (nh ph)
Vi : Bien ph cua mot n v san pham i
Pi : Gia n v cua san pham i
Wi : Ty trong doanh so cua san pham trong tong doanh so cac san pham cua
cau lac bo
. Chi ph co nh mot nam la :
FC = (1.800.000 + 2.000.000) x 12 = 45.600.000
. Doanh so tng mat hang va ty trong doanh so cua moi loai hang tren tong doanh
thu c tnh nh sau :
Doanh thu hang uong : 30.000 x 5.000 = 150.000.000
Doanh thu hang an : 100.000 x 10.000 = 1.000.000.000
Doanh thu o dung trang mieng : 10.000 x 2.500 = 25.000.000
Doanh thu banh sandwiches : 20.000 x 4.000 = 80.000.000
Tong doanh thu : 1.255.000.000

. Ty trong doanh so cac loai hang ban c so vi tong doanh so :
Wh.u =150.000.000/1.255.000.000 = 0,119
Wh.a = 1.000.000.000/1.255.000.000 = 0,796
Wt.m =25.000.000/1.255.000.000 = 0,019
Ws = 80.000.000/1.255.000.000 = 0,063
Nh vay doanh so hoa von se la :
45.600.000
DHVDT =
2.500 5.000 1.000 2.000
1 0,119 + 1

0,796 + 1

0,019 + 1

0,063

5.000 10 .000 2 .500 4 .000
HVDT = 45.600.000/(0,0595 + 0,398 + 0,0114 + 0,0315)

= 45.600.000/ 0,5004
= 91127098
3. La chon cong suat :

Cac loai cong suat a xet tren c tom tat qua hnh sau ay:
Nh vay, pham vi e la chon cong suat nam trong khoang t cong suat thc te
en cong suat hoa von.
Cong suat ly thuyet
Cong suat thc te
Cong suat mong i
Cong suat thc te
Cong suat hoa von
a. Can c e la chon cong suat :

e xac nh cong suat thch hp cho doanh nghiep, ta can can c vao cac yeu to
sau ay :
- Mc o yeu cau cua th trng hien tai va tng lai oi vi loai san pham va
dch vu ang xet. Mc o nay c xac nh bang cach tien hanh ieu tra th
trng va thc hien cong tac d bao.
- Kha nang chiem lnh th trng, th phan d kien
- Kha nang cung cap cac yeu to au vao, ac biet la cac loai nguyen vat lieu
nhap khau.
- Kha nang at mua cac thiet b cong nghe co cong suat phu hp.
- Nang lc ve to chc, ieu hanh san xuat.
- Kha nang ve von
Trng hp nhu cau th trng ln, nhng doanh nghiep cha u noi lc, ac biet
la khi cha u von th ta co the phan ky au t, bo von ra dan dan, a cong suat
tang len t t cho ti khi at c cong suat can thiet.
S d ta phan ky au t v co nhng u iem sau :
- Khong phai bo von ra mot luc
- On nh dan cac yeu to au vao, au ra.
- On nh dan bo may quan ly, ren luyen, ao tao c oi ngu cong nhan.
- Han che c cac ton that, rui ro do cac bien ong ot xuat bat li.
Viec phan ky dai hay ngan, bao nhieu giai oan con tuy theo cac trng hp cu
the. Tuy nhien khong nen phan ra qua nhieu giai oan, co the gay ra nhieu kho
khan cho viec to chc thc hien - thong thng khong phan qua 3 giai oan.
b. Phng phap tnh toan e la chon cong suat :
Sau khi a xem xet cac yeu to e la chon cong suat noi tren, viec tiep theo la
can phai tnh toan nh lng cu the li hai cua tng phng an cong suat e chon
ra mot phng an tot nhat, thch hp nhat, co li nhat ve mat kinh te.
e tnh toan, ngi ta thng s dung phng phap cay quyet nh.
V du : Mot cong ty san xuat nguyen lieu nha ang xem xet viec m rong san
xuat, nang cao cong suat.
Co 4 phng an ve cong suat c a ra xem xet.
S1 - Xay dng mot nha may ln, cong suat 25.000 t/nam
S2 - Xay dng mot nha may va, cong suat 10.000 T/nam
S3 - Xay dng mot nha may nho, cong suat 5.000 t/nam.
S4 - Khong xay dng mot nha may nao.
Tnh hnh th trng th : co the thuan li (E1) hoac khong thuan li (E2) - Cac so
lieu ve li nhuan tnh cho mot nam san xuat bnh thng va xac suat xay ra cac
trang thai th trng, cong ty a d tnh c the hien trong bang sau :
VT : 106 VN
Phng an cong suat Th trng tot Th trng xau
(E1) (E2)
S1 - XDNM ln 100 -90
S2 - XDNM va 60 -10
S3 - XDNM nho 40 -5
S4 - Khong xay dng 0 0
NM nao
Xac suat 0,4 0,6
Hoi cong ty nen la chon phng an co quy mo (cong suat) nao e xay dng
nha may ?
. Cay quyet nh c bieu dien
. Tnh gia tr tien te mong i EMV :
EMV2 = 100 x 0,4 - 90 x 0,6 = -14
EMV2 = 60 x 0,4 - 10 x 0,6 = 18
EMV3 = 40 x 0,4 - 5 x 0,6 = 13
EMV4 = 0
EMV1 = max -14, 18, 13, 0=18.106 VN
. Ket qua : Cong ty nen chon chien lc S2 - Tc la xay dng mot nha may co quy
mo cong suat va phai (10.000T/nam) - va nh vay, li nhuan mong i trong mot
nam cua cong ty se la 18.106 VN
III. QUYET NH VE THIET B :
Viec la chon may moc thiet b c tien hanh ong thi vi viec la chon cong
nghe va cong suat. Mac du vay, tren thc te nhieu khi van xay ra tnh trang nh :
ng vi mot loai cong nghe, cong suat giong nhau co the co nhieu loai may moc
thiet b, do nhieu hang, nhieu quoc gia khac nhau san xuat.
V vay, sau khi a quyet nh c cong nghe, cong suat ta can quyet nh ung
an ve viec la chon thiet b, may moc - at mua may moc, thiet b sao cho co li
nhat.
1. Nguyen tac la chon thiet b :

e la chon c may moc, thiet b thch hp va co li nhat, can tuan theo cac
nguyen tac sau ay :
-14 E1 (0,4) 100

2 E2 (0,6)
S1 -90
18 E1 (0,4)
18 S2 60
3
1 E2 (0,6)
-10
S3 13 E1 (0,4)
4 40
S4 E2 (0,6)
-5
0 E1 (0,4)
5 0
E2 (0,6)
- Thiet b phai phu hp vi cong nghe, cong suat a la chon. (Cong nghe ay
c hieu theo ngha rong la : tat ca nhng phng thc, nhng qua trnh c s
dung e chuyen hoa cac nguon lc thanh san pham va dch vu.
Muc tieu cua quyet nh ve cong nghe la : Tm ra mot phng thc, mot qua
trnh tot nhat e san xuat, ap ng c yeu cau cua khach hang, am bao chat
lng san pham trong nhng ieu kien cu the ve tai nguyen va nang lc quan ly).
- Phai am bao chat lng san pham theo yeu cau.
- Phai phu hp vi xu the phat trien ky thuat chung, cang tien tien cang tot. Han
che nhap cac thiet b second hand.
- Gia ca phai chang
- Co bao hanh
- Tuoi tho kinh te dai.
- Phai kiem tra tan goc, nhat la oi vi cac thiet b chu yeu.
- Phai tnh toan kinh te, so sanh gia cac phng an vi nhau e chon ra phng
an tot nhat.
Di ay la loai bai toan chon may ma ta thng gap. e giai chung, ta can s
dung cac ky thuat, phan tch nh lng.
2. Bai toan chon may:

e giai bai toan chon may, ta can thc hien cac cong viec sau ay.
- Xac nh cac khoan chi
- Xac nh cac khoan thu
- Ve dong tien
- Tnh hien gia cac khoan thu - chi
- Tnh hien gia thuan NPV
- Chon phng an co max NPV> 0
- Neu cha thoa man, e can than hn ta co the tnh IRR (ty suat thu hoi von
noi bo - la gia tr cua ty suat chiet khau noi bo ma khi chiet khau vi ty suat nay
th ch tieu hien gia thuan NPV = 0). Sau o so sanh vi lai suat bnh quan tren th
trng von e ra quyet.
IRR c tnh theo cong thc :

NPV1
IRR = i1 + i2 i1 100%

NPV1 + NPV2

Trong o : i1 = i la ty suat chiet khau ban au c la chon e tnh toan khi xac
nh ch tieu NPV.
i2 = i gia nh : c xac nh bang phng phap th dan theo nguyen tac i gia
nh (i2) ln hn i1 (i2>i1) - Sao cho khi chiet khau ta tnh c NPV2 co gia tr am
(-)
V du : Co 2 loai may A & B cung tnh nang va eu thoa man cac yeu cau ve
cong nghe, cong suat. Hay cho biet nen chon mua may nao.
Da vao n chao hang cac may, ngi ta a tnh toan c cac so lieu the hien
trong bang sau : Thi han au t d kien la 15 nam. Lai suat chiet khau la 10%
nam.
Ch tieu May A May B

Gia mua tra ngay 15 20
Gia ph van hanh/nam 4 4,5
Thu nhap/nam 7 9
Gia tr con lai khi het tuoi tho 3 0
Tuoi tho kinh te (nam) 5 10
Giai
V tuoi tho kinh te cua may A va B khac nhau, do o ta can quy ong ve mot
thi ky phan tch chung - bang boi so chung nho nhat cua cac tuoi tho ( ay
BSCNN cua 5 va 10 la 10 nam)
Do thi ky phan tch 10 nam < thi han au t 15 nam. V vay dung 10 nam e
tnh toan, so sanh.
Trng hp thi ky phan tch > thi gian au t th ta lay thi han au t e tnh
toan, so sanh.
- Nhn vao bang ta thay : Do thi ky phan tch la 10 nam nen may B ch mua
mot lan - Trong khi o may A sau 5 nam phai thay mi va cung ch phai thay mi
mot lan.
- Sau 5 nam, may A het tuoi tho nhng gia tr con lai la 3 trieu ong. Do o co
the xem gia thay mi cua may A la 15 - 3 = 12 trieu ong.
- T quan he gia thu nhap va chi ph van hanh hang nam cua cac may A va B,
ta tnh c thu nhap hang nam cua cac may nay nh sau :
. Thu nhap rong/nam cua may A la :
7 - 4 = 3 trieu ong/nam.
. Thu nhap rong/nam cua may B la :
9 - 4,5 = 4,5 trieu ong/nam.
- Ve dong tien (cash flow)

. oi vi may A :
3
3
0
1 2 3 4 5 12 6 7 8 9 10
15 15-3
oi vi may B :
4,5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
20
- Tnh hien gia cac khoan thu - chi

. oi vi may A
* Hien gia cac khoan chi : Cac khoan chi oi vi may A gom co :
+ Gia mua tra ngay 15 trieu ong
+ Gia thay mi 12 trieu ong cuoi nam th 5
Hien gia tng khoan chi c tnh theo cong thc :
n 1 n : so thi ky tnh toan
P = F (1 + i ) =F
(1 + i ) n i : Lai suat chiet khau
. Hien gia cua 15 trieu ong ung bang 15 trieu ong, v phai tra ngay. Do ta lay
thi iem tra ngay la nam 0. Tc:
1
P = 15 = 15 trieu ong
(1 + 0,1) 0
Trong o : . F = 15 trieu ong
. n = 0 nam
. i = 10%/nam
. Hien gia cua 12 trieu ong la :
P = F(1+i)-n = 12(1+0,1)-5
Trong o : . F = 12 trieu ong
. n = 5 nam
. i = 10%/nam
Nh vay hien gia cac khoan chi cua may A se la :
PV(chi) = 15+12(1+0,1)-5=15+(12 x 0,621)=22,452 trieu ong
* Hien gia cac khoan thu :
V thu nhap rong hang nam la mot dong tien eu va lien tuc. Do o e a ve
hien gia ta ap dung cong thc sau :
(1 + i ) n 1
P = A n
i (1 + i )
Trong o :
. A : Cng o dong tien eu (3 trieu ong/nam)

. i : Lai suat chiet khau (10%/nam)
. n : So thi ky tnh toan (nam)
Ta co cac khoan thu cua may A gom co :
+ Thu nhap rong hang nam (3 trieu ong/nam)
+ Gia tr con lai cuoi nam th 10 (3 trieu ong).
Thay vao cong thc tren ta tnh c hien gia cac khoan thu la :
(1 + 0,1) 10 1
PV (thu) = 3 10
+ 3(1 + 0,1) 10
0,1(1 + 0,1)
PV(thu) = (3 x 6,139) + (3 x 0,386)
PV(thu) = 19,56 trieu ong
. oi vi may B :
* Hien gia cac khoan chi v tra ngay 20 trieu ong tai thi iem la nam 0 nen
hien gia se la :
1
P = F (1 + i ) n = 20 = 20 trieu ong
(1 + 0,1) 0
PV (chi) = 20 trieu ong.
* Hien gia cac khoan thu la :
(1 + i ) n 1
PV (thu) = A n
i (1 + i )
(1 + 0,1)10 1
PV (thu) = 4,5 10
= 4,5 6,139
0,1(1 + 0,1)
PV(thu) = 27,625 trieu ong.
- Tnh hien gia thuan :
Ta co : NPV = PV (thu) - PV(chi)
. oi vi may A :
NPVA = PV(thu) - PV(chi)
NPVA = 19,56 - 22,452 = -2,89 trieu ong
V NPVA <0, co ngha la b lo, do o ta khong nen mua may A

. oi vi may B :
NPVB = 27,625 - 20 = 7,625 trieu ong
- So sanh gia may A & may B :
. V NPVA < 0 Khong mua may A
. oi vi may B co NPVB = 7,625 trieu ong >0
V vay ta nen mua may B. Lam nh the trong vong 10 nam ta se thu c mot
khoan li nhuan la : 7,625 trieu ong.
* Lu y :
- Trng hp NPVA > 0 va NPVB > 0 th ta chon phng an co max NPV
- Trng hp cho rang tien li cua may B tren van con nho, cha xng ang
e au t th ta can tnh them suat thu hoi vi noi bo IRR (Inter rate of return) c
tnh theo cong thc :
NPV1
IRR = i 1 + (i2 i1 ) 100%
NPV1 + NPV2
Trong o : i1 : Ty suat chiet khau ban au
i2 : Gia nh (vi i2> i1)
. tren ta a tnh c NPV1 = 7,625 trieu ong, ng vi i1 = 10%
. e tnh NPV2 co gia tr am (-), ta chon vi i2 gia nh = 20%
(1 + 0,2) 10 1
Ta co : NPV2 = 4,5 10
20
0,2(1 + 0,2)
NPV2 = 18,88 20 = 1,12 trieu ong
Nh vay IRR se la :
7,625
IRR = 0,1 + (0,2 0,1) 100%
7,625 + 112
,
IRR = 18,72%
Lai suat 18,72% nam la lai suat do t ban than d an mua may B sinh ra, ay la
lai suat kha cao. Do o, neu doanh nghiep i vay von vi lai suat 8% - 10% - 12%
nam e mua may moc thiet b th d an van chu ng c v van con li.
Cuoi cung ta i en s la chon la mua may B.

CHNG IV :
HOACH NH TONG HP
Hoach nh tong hp c coi la mot trong nhng chc nang chu yeu cua nha
quan tr. Hoach nh tong hp chnh la viec ra cac quyet nh nham xac nh so
lng san pham va phan bo thi gian san xuat cho mot tng lai trung han. Thong
thng t 3 - 18 thang.
Nha quan tr phai tm c giai phap tot nhat lam the nao e ap ng vi nhu
cau cua th trung tng thi iem bang cach ieu chnh mc san xuat, mc ton
kho, cac hp ong phu, mc san xuat ngoai gi va cac bien so khac kiem soat
c.
Muc ch cua qua trnh ieu chnh la nham giam thieu ph ton trong toan bo cac
giai oan cua viec hoach nh (ke hoach). ong thi han che en mc thap nhat s
bien ong ve nhan lc va mc ton kho.
I. KHAI NIEM VE HOACH NH TONG HP VA MOI QUAN

HE CUA HOACH NH TONG HP VI CAC HOAT ONG
KHAC
1. Khai niem ve hoach nh tong hp :
Hoach nh tong hp la s ket hp viec s dung cac nguon lc (may moc,
nguyen lieu, nhan lc, nguon ton kho, thue ngoai...) vao qua trnh san xuat nham
at cac muc tieu sau :
- am bao san xuat on nh.
- am bao chi ph san xuat thap nhat
- am bao san lng hang ton kho toi thieu.
. Thc chat cua qua trnh hoach nh tong hp : La qua trnh ra cac quyet
nh ve :
- Mc san xuat
- Mc bien che
- Mc san xuat ngoai gi
- Mc thue ngoai
- Mc ton kho
Cac quyet nh tren c thc hien sao cho tong chi ph (TC) la nho nhat (min)
2. Moi quan he cua hoach nh tong hp vi cac hoat ong khac :
Moi quan he cua hoach nh tong hp vi cac hoat ong khac co the bieu dien
theo s o sau :


Nhu cau th trng N/C Cong nghe

Q.nh
San pham
Nguyen
May moc
Cac quyet nh ve cong suat lieu
D oan
n at HOACH NH TONG HP
Nhan lc Ton kho
hang
HOACH NH LCH TRNH
S XUAT H.ong
HOACH NH NHU CAU VAT T phu
HOACH NH CONG SUAT MMTB
II. CAC CHIEN LC THUAN TUY (hay cac chien lc n

thuan)
La chien lc s dung rieng biet tng nguon lc mot
(Tuy nhien, tren thc te ngi ta khong s dung rieng biet - ay chung ta tach
ra e xem xet u nhc iem cua tng chien lc).
A/ Cac chien lc b ong :
La cac chien lc tac ong vao cac nguon lc, lam cho cac nguon lc thay oi
theo cau (tc tang giam hay cha theo cau nham co gang tao moi ieu kien e ap
ng nhng thay oi ve cau)
Loai nay gom 5 chien lc sau ay.
1. Chien lc thay oi mc ton kho : la d tr san trong kho mot lng thanh
pham e luc cau tang th ap ng c ngay. (Nha quan tr phai lng trc c
thang nao th cau tang hoac giam). (Ngi Nhat thng dung chien lc nay).
Chien lc nay co :
. u iem :
- am bao san xuat on nh (Khong tang ca, gi va lao ong ben ngoai)
- Khong ton chi ph ao tao va sa thai cong nhan (khong them hoac bt cong
nhan)
- am bao chat lng san pham.
. Nhc iem :
- Ton chi ph ton kho
- Hao mon vo hnh oi vi san pham.
. Khac phuc : Nen d tr thi gian ngan va phai
. Pham vi ap dung : Chien lc nay chu yeu c ap dung cho cac n v san
xuat hn la cho hoat ong dch vu.
2. Chien lc thay oi nhan cong theo mc cau :
ay la mot trong nhng cach tiep can cau o la : cau tang Tuyen them lao
ong, cau giam Sa thai cong nhan. (Chien lc nay My va cac nc Chau Au
hay dung).
. u iem :
- Can bang kha nang va nhu cau
- Khong ton chi ph ton kho
. Nhc iem :
- Ton chi ph ao tao va sa thai
- Tao tam ly khong on nh, dan en nang suat lao ong giam (do cong nhan
khong an tam va gan bo vi x nghiep)
. Pham vi ap dung : Ch nen ap dung trong trng hp cong viec gian n
khong oi hoi ky nang (chang han nh : gat lua, hai tao).
3. Chien lc cau tang : T/c san xuat ngoai gi (gi phu troi), ieu hoa cong
viec khi cau giam :
. u iem :
- Co the can oi c kha nang va nhu cau
- Khong ton chi ph ao tao va sa thai
- Khong tang bien che
- On nh viec lam cho ngi lao ong, tao ong lc cho cong nhan gan bo vi
x nghiep.
. Nhc iem :
- Tang gi phu troi khi cau tang dan en nang suat lao ong bien te cang luc
cang giam.
- Tien lng ngoai gi tang 1,5 - 2 lan so vi trong gi dan en :
+ Li nhuan thu hep
+ Cong nhan san xuat quen vi n gia ngoai gi nen de chan nan khi lam viec
trong gi.
. Pham vi ap dung :
- Nen ap dung oi vi nhng lao ong co ky nang.
- Khong nen tang gi phu troi qua nhieu (mot ngay ch nen tang mot gi)
4. Chien lc thue lao ong ban phan (thi vu)
. u iem :
- San xuat on nh
- Khong tang bien che
- Khong ton chi ph ao tao va sa thai
- Khong ton chi ph ton kho.
. Nhc iem :
- Han che tinh than trach nhiem (v ho la nhng ngi lao ong ben ngoai)
- ieu o kho
. Khac phuc : Thue nhng n v co to chc chat che (n v bo oi, sinh vien,
hoc sinh, cac ngi a ve hu...)
5. Chien lc hp ong phu : (gia cong ngoai)
Trong cac giai oan co nhu cau cao vot, th cac x nghiep co the tien hanh thc
hien chat lng hp ong phu e am bao cong suat tam thi. Tuy nhien hp ong
phu cung thng kem theo nhieu cam bay nh :
- at tien
- Tao c hoi cho khach hang cua mnh tiep xuc vi oi thu canh tranh.
- t khi at c mot hp ong phu hoan hao nh, cung cap san pham at chat
lng ung thi han; chien lc nay co u nhc iem sau :
. u iem :
- Can bang c kha nang va nhu cau (thang thieu th thue gia cong, thang
khong thieu th thoi)
- Khong ton chi ph ao tao va sa thai.
- Khong ton chi ph ton kho
. Nhc iem :
- La cam bay : de mat khach hang.
- Rat kho kiem tra ve chat lng san pham va tien o san xuat (ly do la ngi
ky hp ong phu em hang ve nha lam).
- Giam li nhuan.
. Pham vi ap dung : Chien lc nay chu yeu c dung trong khu vc san xuat
hay mot nganh dch vu, mot so nganh co tnh chat cong nghiep nh : sn, sa cha.
B/ Cac chien lc chu ong :
La cac chien lc tac ong trc tiep vao cau, lam cho cau thay oi theo kha
nang.
1. Chien lc tang gia hoac keo dai chu ky phan phoi khi cau > cung; Hay giam
gia, tang cng quang cao, tiep th, tang so nhan vien ban hang khi cung > cau :
(Cac cong ty hang khong va cac khach san thng giam gia vao cuoi tuan, cong ty
ien thoai giam gia cho khach hang goi vao ban em...)
. u iem :
- Khong ton them chi ph san xuat.
. Nhc iem :
- Khong xac nh trc c cau se tang giam bao nhieu nen chien lc nay la
khong chac chan.
- Thu hep li nhuan.
2. Chien lc hp ong chu (at coc trc).
Trong giai oan cau cao, neu doanh nghiep tien hanh thc hien cac n hang
chu, la nhng n hang a ky ket, nhng khong the ap ng c nhu cau cua
khach hang luc bay gi. Neu khach hang bang long ch i ma doanh nghiep
khong b mat n hang va s tn nhiem th dang n nay c coi la mot chien
lc. Nhieu nha cung cap xe hi thng s dung chien lc nay, tuy nhien chien
lc nay khong the s dung oi vi viec ban san pham tieu dung.
Nh vay chien lc nay ch nen s dung mot cach tam thi trong mot thi gian
ngan nao o khi cau tang ot ngot nham keo dai thi iem giao hang (khi cha u
kha nang ap ng nhu cau cua khach hang). Loai chien lc nay co u nhc
iem sau :
. u iem :
- Khong ton them chi ph
. Nhc iem :
- La cam bay, de mat khach hang do khach hang co the bo ta e tm ni khac
(chang han khi khach hang muon may mot bo quan ao, muon chon bac s phau
thuat hay sa cha xe... Co the nhng khach hang nay van trung thanh vi ta nhng
phat long oi chut).
- Doanh thu trong mot khoang thi gian se giam.
3. Chien lc to chc san xuat nhng mat hang oi trong (hay san xuat san pham
hon hp theo mua ) :
ay la chien lc thng c cac nha san xuat hay dung e lap mot chng
trnh san xuat san pham dung theo mua bo sung cho nhau
V du : Co x nghiep va san xuat hop so thuy hay may say lua, hoac san xuat
cac loai quan ao theo mua (ong - he).
u nhc iem cua chien lc nay la :
. u iem :
- Gi vng c doanh thu (do lam ket hp 2 mat hang A va B)
- Bao am cong an viec lam cho lao ong.
- Khai thac het nang lc san xuat.
. Nhc iem :
- au t them thiet b
- Thue them chuyen gia
Rat de xay ra rui ro (do san xuat mat hang tay trai)
III. CAC PHNG PHAP HOACH NH TONG HP

1. Phng phap trc quan : (Phng phap kinh nghiem)
o la ke hoach tong hp tng t t nam nay sang nam khac theo kinh nghiem
goi la phng phap trc quan.
ay la phng phap phi nh lng nhng xung ot gia cac bo phan trong cac
doanh nghiep ln, viec xung ot gia cac phong chc nang oi khi xay ra la le
thng tnh.
V du : Nha quan tr marketing th muon hang co nhieu loai mat hang va co mot
lng ton kho u ln e ban va ap ng c nhu cau cua khach hang. Ngc lai,
nha quan tr tai chnh lai muon giam thieu mc ton kho e ha c chi ph ton tr.
Trong khi o, cac quan oc phan xung lai muon co cang t chung loai san pham
tot e de ieu hanh san xuat.
Do cac xung ot xay ra quanh nhng cong viec nh vay, nen ket luan ve ke
hoach va chnh sach thng nga theo y ca nhan manh nhat hn la theo mot ke
hoach thong nhat.
Mac du vay, tu trung lai th phng phap nay ngi ta chu yeu la can c vao
kinh nghiem thc te va nhu cau cua cac thi ky e ra quyet nh ve :
- Mc san xuat
- Mc bien che
- Mc san xuat ngoai gi
- Mc thue ngoai
- Mc ton kho
Phng phap nay co nhng u nhc iem sau :
. u iem : Nhanh va re
. Nhc iem : Khi nhan s thay oi th phng phap va mo hnh se thay oi
theo (v phng phap nay hoan toan tuy thuoc vao kinh nghiem va s nhay cam
cua moi ngi)
2. Phng phap o th (bieu o)
ay la ky thuat thng pho bien, v chung de hieu va de dang s dung. Ngi ta
bieu dien cac mc nhu cau cua cac thi ky len o th va so sanh vi kha nang san
xuat. Nhng so sanh o se cho nhng phep th ung sai e ieu chnh ke hoach.
V la phep th ung sai nen ta kho co c mot ke hoach san xuat toi u, ma no
ch cho ta nhng c tnh gii han.
Mac du vay, thong qua o th, ta se phat hien ra c cac chien lc.
Nhn chung phng phap o th thng c tien hanh qua 5 bc sau :
1. Xac nh nhu cau cho moi giai oan
2. Xac nh cong suat khi lam trong gi, lam them gi va hp ong phu moi
giai oan.
3. Tnh chi ph lao ong, chi ph thue mn va sa thai, chi ph ton tr hang.
4. Xem xet chnh sach cua cong ty vi mc lao ong va mc d tr ton kho.
5. Lap ra nhieu ke hoach (phng an) khac nhau va xem xet, so sanh tong chi
ph cua chung.
Phng phap bieu o co nhng u, nhc iem sau.
. u iem : - n gian va de hieu - Co the lap c rat nhieu phng an khac
nhau.
. Nhc iem : Kho xac nh c phng an toi u.
V du : Nha may cao su BH a lap bang d bao nhu cau hang thang cho san
pham lop xe honda cua mnh trong 6 thang qua bang sau. Trong o nhu cau hang
ngay c tnh bang cach chia so cau mong i cho so ngay lam viec trong moi
thang.

Nhu cau Ngay san Nhu cau

Thang
mong i xuat hang moi ngay
thang
1 900 22 41
2 700 18 39
3 800 21 38
4 1.200 21 57
5 1.500 22 68
6 1.100 20 55
Tong cong 6.200 124
Nha may a xay dng bieu o nhu cau hang ngay cho tng thang va ng cau
trung bnh (ng co net gach ri tren o th, nham bieu dien mc o san xuat can
co e ap ng c nhu cau bnh quan), nhu cau nay c tnh bang cong thc :
Tong nhu cau mong i 6.200

Nhu cau trung bnh = = = 50 n v/ngay
So ngay san xuat 124
Mc
SX/ngay San xuat < nhu cau
Mc san xuat > nhu cau
80
70 68
60 ng cau trung bnh 57 Thieu 55
hang
50
D ton kho Mc san xuat
40
trung bnh
41 39
30 38
20
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 thang
Trong tnh hnh san xuat cua nha may, chung ta con biet them cac thong tin va
chi ph nh sau :

Cac loai chi ph Gia ca

- Chi ph ton tr 5.000/n v/thang
- Chi ph hp ong phu (at hang ben ngoai) 10.000 /n v
- Mc lng trung bnh 5.000 /gi
(40.000/ngay)
- Mc lng phu troi (lam ngoai gi) 7.000 /gi
- So gi e san xuat ra mot n v 1,6 gi/n v
- Chi ph khi mc san xuat tang (ao tao, thue mn) 10.000 /n v
- Chi ph khi mc san xuat giam (sa thai) 15.000 /n v
Yeu cau : Hay hoach nh cac chien lc tong hp va la chon chien lc hp

ly.
Vi cac so lieu a cho ben tren ta co the hoach nh c 3 chien lc tong hp
khac nhau sau ay :
1. Chien lc tong hp I : To chc san xuat vi mc nhu cau trung bnh :
6.200/124 = 50 san pham/ngay nham duy tr ke hoach san xuat on nh trong 6
thang.
Vi chien lc nay, nha may thc hien thay oi mc ton kho e luan chuyen
gia mc san xuat vi nhu cau thc te trong cac thang. Tc la tap trung vao viec d
tr hang trong giai oan cau bien ong t thang 1 - 3 va se luan chuyen cho cac
thang 4, 5 va se ban het vao thang 6.
Gia nh rang : Khoi lng d tr ban au bang 0 va d tr cuoi cung cung bang
0, ta se co mc d tr (ton kho) c tnh trong bang sau :
D Ton kho cuoi ky

Thang Mc san xuat
bao (luy tien)
nhu
cau
1 900 50 x 22 = 1.100 200
2 700 50 x 18 = 900 400
3 800 50 x 21 = 1.050 650
4 1.200 50 x 21 = 1.050 500
5 1.500 50 x 22 = 1.100 100
6 1.100 50 x 20 = 1.000 0
Tong 6.200 6.200 1.850
cong

Nh vay, chi ph c tnh cho chien lc tong hp I bao gom: (2 loai)
- Chi ph san xuat (chi ph lao ong thng xuyen)
6.200 x 5.000 /gi x 1,6 gi/n v = 49.600.000
- Chi ph ton kho :
1.850 n v x 5.000 /n v = 9.250.000
Do o tong chi ph cua chien lc tong hp I la :
TC = 49.600.000 + 9.250.000 = 58.850.000
2. Chien lc tong hp II :
Ta to chc san xuat trong gi bang mc nhu cau toi thieu thang 3 la : 38 n
v/ngay. Nh vay nhu cau con lai trong cac thang thieu se c thoa man bang hp
ong phu, do o khong co chi ph ton tr nh chien lc I.

Ta co khoi lng san pham c san xuat trong gi va hp ong phu c tnh
trong bang di ay :
Thang D bao nhu Mc san xuat Hp ong

cau phu
1 900 38 x 22 = 836 64
2 700 38 x 18 = 684 16
3 800 38 x 21 = 798 2
4 1.200 38 x 21 = 798 402
5 1.500 38 x 22 = 836 664
6 1.100 38 x 20 = 760 340
Tong 6.200 4712 1.488

cong
Ta tnh c chi ph cua chien lc nh sau :
- Chi ph san xuat trong gi :
4.712 n v x 5.000 x 1,6 gi = 37.696.000
- Chi ph hp ong phu :
1.488 n v x 10.000 = 14.880.000
Vay tong chi ph cua chien lc tong hp II se la :
TC = 37.696.000 + 14.880.000 = 52.576.000
3. Chien lc tong hp III :
Ta cho mc san xuat bang vi mc nhu cau nen khi cau tang th tang lao ong,
ngc lai cau giam th giam lao ong. Can lu y rang neu giam san xuat mot n
v so vi thang trc th mat 15.000 ong cho viec sa thai, con them mot n v th
mat 10.000 ong e thue them cong nhan.
Ta co cac chi ph san xuat trong gi, chi ph thue them lao ong (ao tao) va chi
ph sa thai lao ong c tnh trong bang di ay; (Trong o chi ph e lam ra mot
n v san pham la : 1,6 gi/n v x 5.000 /gi = 8.000 /v)

Thang D
Chi ph san xuat trong Chi ph ao tao Chi ph sa thai Tong chi
bao
gi
nhu
cau
1 900 900x8.000 = - - 7.200.000
2 700 7.200.000 - 200 x 15.000 =
3 800 700x8.000 = 100x10.000=1.000.00 3.000.000 8.600.000
5.600.000 0 -
4 1.200
800x8.000 = 400x10.000 = - 7.400.000
5 1.500 6.400.000
4.000.000 -
6 1.100 1.200x8.000 = 300 x 10.000 = 400 x 15.000 = 13.600.00
9.600.000 3.000.000 0
6.000.000
1.500x8.000 = - 15.000.00
12.000.000 0
1.100x8.000 = 14.800.00
8.800.000 0
Tong
6.200 49.600.000 8.000.000 9.000.000 66.600.00
cong
0

Bc cuoi cung cua phng phap o th la so sanh chi ph cua 3 chien lc tong
hp e chon ra chien lc hp ly - la chien lc co chi ph nho nhat. Nh vay chien
lc toi u c chon la chien lc (phng an) II.
* Cac phng an (chien lc) tong quat :
A. To chc san xuat trong gi bang mc nhu cau trung bnh : co 4 phng
an.
Tong so cau
Tong so cau trung bnh =
So ngay trong tuan (trong thang, so thang)
- Chien lc ton kho (1)
- Chien lc san xuat ngoai gi (2)
- Chien lc san xuat bang hp ong phu (3)
- Chien lc san xuat bang hp ong phu va san xuat ngoai gi (4)
B. To chc san xuat trong gi bang mc nhu cau toi thieu :
(Khi chi ph trong gi xap x chi ph ngoai gi)
- Thang thieu hang thc hien chien lc san xuat ngoai gi (5)
- Thang thieu hang thc hien chien lc san xuat bang hp ong phu (6)
- Thang thieu hang thc hien chien lc san xuat bang hp ong phu va san
xuat ngoai gi (7)
c. To chc san xuat trong gi bang mc nhu cau :
- Thc hien chien lc cau tang th tang lao ong, cau giam th giam lao ong.
(8)
d. To chc san xuat ngoai gi bang mc san xuat ky trc:
- Chien lc ton kho (9)
- Chien lc san xuat ngoai gi (10)
- Chien lc san xuat bang hp ong phu (11)
- Chien lc san xuat bang hp ong phu va ngoai gi (12)
3. Phng phap bai toan van tai :
Qua hn 30 nam tr lai ay, nhieu nha kinh te hoc a phat trien nhieu cach
hoach nh tong hp bang phng phap tnh toan, trong o phai ke en hai phng
phap chu yeu thng c s dung la phng phap bai toan van tai va quy hoach
tuyen tnh. Do gii han cua giao trnh nen chung toi ch trnh bay phng phap bai
toan van tai ma thoi.
Phng phap bai toan van tai (ma trong mon hoc Quy hoach tuyen tnh a
c e cap) khong giong nh phng phap th ung sai bang cach ve o th ma
phng phap nay se giup ta xay dng c ke hoach kha thi vi chi ph cc tieu.
Phng phap nay rat linh hoat, v no cho phep chung ta s dung ca gi lam viec
thng xuyen (trong gi) lan gi phu troi cho moi giai oan trong san xuat. So
lng san pham co the c at gia cong ngoai do lam them ca hay chuyen so ton
kho t giai oan nay sang giai oan khac.
Trong v du di ay ta se thay ro hang c cung cap bao gom hang lay t kho
san co hay c san xuat trong gi, gi phu troi (vut gi) hay at ngoai (hp ong
phu). Chi ph c ghi trong o nho nam goc phai pha tren cua moi o cua ma tran,
chi ph nay co lien quan ti so n v c san xuat trong giai oan a cho, hay so
n v c ton kho t giai oan trc o.
V du : Mot cong ty co lap ke hoach e xac nh cac ch tieu san xuat tng ng
vi nhu cau, kha nang thc te va chi ph san xuat theo bang di ay :
Ch tieu Cac thi ky
Thang 1 Thang 2 Thang 3
Nhu cau 450 550 750
Kha nang san xuat
- Bnh thng (trong 300 400 450
gi) 50 50 50
- Vt gi (ngoai gi) 200 200 200
- at ngoai (hp ong 50
phu)
- Ton kho au ky
Cac chi ph :
- Chi ph lam trong gi 50.000/san pham
- Chi ph lam ngoai gi : 65.000 /san pham
- Chi ph hp ong phu : 80.000 /san pham
- Chi ph ton kho : 1.000/ san pham/thang
- Cong ty co lc lng lao ong co nh va ap ng c moi nhu cau.
Hay phan phoi kha nang san xuat ap ng nhu cau e tong chi ph la thap nhat
va bang bao nhieu ?
Trc khi giai bai toan, ta can lu y :
1. Chi ph ton tr la : 1.000/n v/thang cho nhng san pham c san xuat
trong cung mot giai oan (thang). V chi ph ton tr nay co quan he tuyen tnh vi
thi gian nen neu san xuat (hay gi trong kho) 2 thang th chi ph tang len thanh
2.000 ong/n v/thang.
2. Do bai toan van tai oi hoi ieu kien cung bang cau, nen can phai them mot
cot gia goi la Kha nang khong s dung hay cong suat khong dung en Chi ph
cho kha nang khong s dung bang khong.
3. So lng san pham moi cot la mc d tr ton kho can thiet e ap ng
(tiep can) vi cau. Chang han : Trong thang mot co nhu cau la 450 san pham c
ap ng bang 50 san pham cua ton kho au ky cong vi 300 san pham c san
xuat trong gi, 50 san pham lam ngoai gi va 50 san pham c san xuat bang hp
ong phu.
n v tnh cho chi ph : 1.000

Nhu cau cho Tong
Cac kha nang cung
t cac nguon Thang Thang Thang Kha kha nang
1 2 3 nang (Tong
khong cung)
dung
Ton kho au ky 0 1 2 0
50 50
San xuat 50 51 52 0
trong gi 300 300
Than San xuat 65 66 67 0
g ngoai gi 50 50
1
San xuat 80 81 82 0
hp ong 50 150 200
phu
San xuat 50 51 0
trong gi 400 400
Than San xuat 65 66 0
g ngoai gi 50 50
2
San xuat 80 81 0
hp ong 100 50 50 200
phu
San xuat 50 0
trong gi 450 450
Than San xuat 65 0
g ngoai gi 50 50
3
San xuat 80 0
hp ong 200 200
phu
Tong nhu cau : 450 550 750 200 1.950
Tong chi ph cua phng an se la :

TC = (300 x 50.000 + 50 x 65.000 + 50 x 80.000) + (400 x 50.000 + 50 x 65.000 +
100 x 80.000) + (50 x 81.000 + 450 x 50.000 + 50 x 65.000 + 200 x 80.000)
TC = 99.300.000
Bai toan van tai c E.N.Browman trnh bay vao nam 1956. Tuy ket qua bai
toan hoan hao trong viec phan tch hieu qua cua cac kha nang ton kho, san xuat
trong gi, ngoai gi va hp ong phu, nhng no khong s dung c khi bai toan co
nhieu yeu to cung xet ong thi.
CHNG V :
QUAN TR TON KHO
I. VAI TRO CUA TON KHO

Trong mot doanh nghiep, hang ton kho bao gi cung la mot trong nhng tai san
co gia tr ln nhat tren tong gia tr tai san cua doanh nghiep o. Thong thng gia
tr hang ton kho chiem 40% tong gia tr tai san cua mot doanh nghiep.
Chnh v le o, viec kiem soat tot hang ton kho luon la mot van e het sc can
thiet va chu yeu trong quan tr san xuat tac nghiep.
Hang ton kho c xem la tat ca nhng nguon lc d tr nham ap ng nhng
nhu cau hien tai hoac tng lai.
Mc o ton kho co lien quan en mc nhu cau mong i cua san pham.
Ngi ban hang th muon dung anh hng cua ho e nang cao mc ton kho v
khong muon e khach phai ch i lau.
Nhan vien phu trach san xuat va tac nghiep cung thch co mot lng ton kho ln
v nh o ma ho lap ke hoach san xuat de dang hn.
Ton kho nhieu co the giam c nguy c thieu hang ban ra khi xay ra h hong
may moc hoac th bo viec ot xuat.
Tuy nhien, oi vi bo phan tai vu th bao gi cung muon hang ton kho c gi
mc thap nhat, bi v tien nam hang ton kho se khong chi tieu vao muc khac
c. Do o, kiem tra ton kho la viec lam khong the thieu c, qua o doanh
nghiep co the gi lng ton kho mc va u. Co ngha la khong co qua nhieu
ma cung ng co qua t.
Bi v khi mc ton kho qua nhieu se dan en gia thanh tang cao, gay kho khan
trong viec canh tranh vi cac oi thu tren th trng.
Ngc lai, lng ton kho khong u se lam giam doanh so ban hang (oi vi
hang ton kho la thanh pham); Trng hp hang ton kho la nguyen vat lieu th se
gay tr tre san xuat.
V le o ma nhiem vu chu yeu cua chng nay khi nghien cu ve quan tr ton
kho la nham giai quyet 2 van e c ban, o la :
- Lng at hang bao nhieu la toi u ?
- Khi nao th tien hanh at hang ?
Trong san xuat, hang ton kho thng bao gom cac loai nguyen vat lieu, san
pham d dang, ban thanh pham, dung cu phu tung va thanh pham ton kho...
II. NHNG KHAI NIEM LIEN QUAN EN QUAN TR TON

KHO :
1. Chc nang quan tr ton kho :
a. Chc nang lien ket : Chc nang chu yeu nhat cua quan tr ton kho la lien ket
3 giai oan chnh gia qua trnh cung ng - san xuat va tieu thu nham giai quyet
c moi quan he gia chung vi nhau, giup cho viec am bao san xuat lien tuc,
tranh s thieu hut gay lang ph trong san xuat.
b. Chc nang e phong tang gia, lam phat :
ng trc tnh hnh th trng co the tang gia nguyen vat lieu hay hang hoa, th
doanh nghiep co the tien hanh d tr mot lng hang ton kho nhat nh e tiet
kiem chi ph. Do o, ton kho c coi la mot hoat ong au t tot. Le tat nhien khi
thc hien hoat ong ton kho, doanh nghiep phai xem xet en chi ph va rui ro co
the xay ra trong qua trnh tien hanh ton kho.
c. Chc nang khau tr theo san lng :
Khi doanh nghiep mua hang vi so lng ln se c nha cung ng khau tr
(giam gia) theo san lng cua n hang.
Nh vay se xuat hien mau thuan la : Giam gia theo so lng mua nhieu, dan
en hang ton kho nhieu. Do o chc nang cua quan tr ton kho la giai quyet mau
thuan nay, nham xac nh cho c mot lng hang toi u e hng gia khau tr,
ma lng hang ton tr tang khong ang ke.
2. Ky thuat phan tch ABC trong viec phan loai hang ton kho:
Trong ton kho, do mot so t mat hang thng co gia tr hang nam o bang n v
tien te (tch cua 2 tha so, nhu cau hang nam cua loai hang ton kho va ph ton cho
moi n v hang ton kho) chiem phan ln trong tong gia tr ton kho. V the ngi ta
co the tap trung tch cc vao viec kiem tra mot so t chung loai mat hang nay.
Trong cong tac ton kho, ngi ta phan cac mon hang ra thanh 3 nhom A, B va C
da vao gia tr hang nam cua chung. Cach phan hang ton kho theo kieu nay, c
goi la phan tch ABC- Ky thuat phan tch ABC c e xuat da vao nguyen tac
Pareto (Vilfredo Pareto la mot nha kinh te Italia, vao nam 1906 a quan sat thay la
trong mot nhom co nhieu mon hang th ch co mot so nho mon co gia tr ang ke
ma thoi).
ac trng cua tng nhom hang ton kho thng c xac nh nh sau :
- Nhom A : Bao gom cac loai hang co gia tr hang nam t 70 - 80% tong gia tr
ton kho, nhng ve so lng ch chiem 15 - 20% tong so hang ton kho.
- Nhom B : Gom cac loai hang co gia tr hang nam t 25 - 30% tong gia tr hang
ton kho.
Ve san lng chung chiem t 30 - 35% tong so hang ton kho.
- Nhom C : Gom cac loai hang co gia tr hang nam nho, chiem t 5 - 10% tong
gia tr hang ton kho. Tuy nhien ve so lng chung lai chiem khoang 5 - 55% tong
so hang ton kho. Di ay la mot v du ve phan hang hang ton kho oi vi 10 mat
hang c the hien qua cac bang sau :
Bang 1 : Gia tr hang nam cua cac mon hang

Mon Nhu cau Gia mua moi Gia tr hang % so vi tong
hang hang nam n vi (ong) nam cua cac gia tr hang nam
(.v) mon hang
(ong)
1 5.000 15.000 75.000.000 2,9
2 1.500 80.000 120.000.000 4,7
3 10.000 105.000 1.050.000.000 41,2
4 6.000 20.000 120.000.000 4,7
5 7.500 5.000 37.500.000 1,5
6 6.000 136.000 816.000.000 32,0
7 5.000 7.500 37.500.000 1,5
8 4.500 12.500 56.250.000 2,2
9 7.000 25.000 175.000.000 6,9
10 3.000 20.000 60.000.000 2,4
Tong
2.547.250.000 100%
cong
Nhn vao bang ta thay : Mon hang 3 va 6 co gia tr chiem ti 73,2% tong gia tr.
Trong khi o cac mon hang 1, 5, 7, 8, 10 ch chiem 10,5% tong gia tr. Cac mon
hang con lai 2, 4 va 9 chiem 16,3% tong gia tr.
Nh vay, viec xep hang ABC cho cac mon hang bang tren c the hien trong
bang di ay :
Bang 2 :
Nhom So th t cac % So vi tong % So vi tong
hang mon hang gia tr hang so hang ton
nam kho
A 3,6 73,2 20
B 2, 4, 9 16,3 30
C 1, 5, 7, 8, 10 10,5 50
Tong 100% 100%
so
* Tac dung cua ky thuat phan tch ABC
1. au t co trong tam khi mua hang : Chang han ta phai danh cac nguon tiem
lc e mua hang nhom A nhieu hn so vi nhom C.
2. Xac nh cac chu ky kiem toan khac nhau cho cac nhom khac nhau :
. oi vi loai hang ton kho thuoc nhom A viec tnh toan phai c thc hien
thng xuyen, thng la moi thang mot lan.
. oi vi loai hang ton kho thuoc nhom B : Se tnh toan trong chu ky dai hn,
thng la moi quy mot lan.
. oi vi loai hang thuoc nhom C : Thng tnh toan 6 thang 1 lan.
Chung ta co the khao sat ve chu ky tnh toan qua v du di ay.
V du : Cong ty A co khoang 5.000 loai hang c phan nhom theo ky thuat
phan tch ABC. Nhom hang A gom 5.00 loai, nhom B gom 1.750 loai, nhom C gom
2.750 loai. Cong ty quy nh chu ky kiem toan la : Nhom A : 1 thang/1 lan, nhom B
1 quy/1 lan, nhom C : 6 thang/1 lan. Neu so ngay lam viec trong thang c quy
nh la 20 ngay, th co bao nhieu loai hang c tnh toan, kiem tra moi ngay ?
Nh vay lng hang phai kiem toan moi ngay c tnh toan trong bang sau :
Nhom Lng hang phai
So Chu ky kiem toan
hang kiem toan moi ngay
lng
A 500 Moi thang (20 ngay) 500/20=25 loai/ngay
B 1.750 Moi quy (60 ngay) 1.750/60=29
loai/ngay
C 2.750 6 thang (120 ngay) 2750/120=23
loai/ngay
Tong cong 77 loai/ngay
3.Giup nang cao trnh o cua nhan vien gi kho, do ho thng xuyen thc hien
cac chu ky kiem toan cua tng nhom hang.
4. Co c cac bao cao ton kho chnh xac. ng nhien mc o chnh xac tuy
thuoc vao gia tr hang ton kho.
5. Co the ap dung cac phng phap d bao khac nhau cho cac nhom hang khac
nhau. Nhom A phai c d bao can than hn cac nhom B va C (chang han mat
hang gian n th ap dung, phng phap d bao bnh quan n gian...)
3. C cau cua chi ph ton kho :
Nha quan tr co the a ra nhieu quyet nh ve quan tr ton kho thong qua viec
s dung cac ch tieu kinh te. Tuy nhien, mot trong nhng ieu kien tien quyet va
quan trong nhat la hieu c c cau ve chi ph. C cau chi ph hang ton kho gom co
4 loai sau ay :
a. Chi ph mua hang : La chi ph can co e mua hay san xuat ra tng mon hang
ton kho mot. Thong thng, chi ph mua hang khong anh hng en viec la chon
cac mo hnh ton kho, tr mo hnh khau tr theo san lng.
Ta co : Chi ph mua hang = khoi lng hang x n gia
Hay : Cmh = P.D
b. Chi ph at hang : La chi ph thiet lap 1 n hang, gan lien vi t hoac lo
hang nh at. Chi ph at hang bao gom cac chi ph nh :
- Chi ph hoa hong cho ngi gii thieu.
- Chi ph hanh chnh e thc hien mot n hang (chi ph anh va gi n hang)
- Chi ph chuan b phng tien e thc hien mot n hang.
- Chi ph khac nh : Chi ph van chuyen , chi ph nhan hang v.v...
Goi : Ch : Chi ph at hang trong 1 nam
D : Nhu cau vat t trong 1 nam
Q : So lng hang thuoc 1 n hang (1 lan mua)
S : Chi ph cho mot lan at hang
N : So lan at hang trong nam
Ta co : Chi ph at hang = so lan at hang trong nam x chi ph cho moi lan at
hang
Vi N = D/Q
Do o Ch = (D/Q).S
c. Chi ph ton tr (chi ph lu kho ) : La nhng loai chi ph co lien quan en viec
lu gi ton kho cac mon hang trong mot giai oan hay thi gian nhat nh.
Chi ph ton tr thng c tnh bang so phan tram gia tr cua mon hang. Chang
han ph ton tr 15% nam cua mon hang , tc la moi 1.000 gia tr mon hang neu
e trong kho mot nam th phai tra 150 tien ton tr.
Trong thc te, thong thng mot ty le ph ton tr hang nam thng vao khoang
15 - 30% gia tr hang ton kho.
Chi ph ton tr bao gom cac chi ph nh :
- Tien thue kho (hay khau hao kho)
- Chi ph s dung may moc thiet b va cac phng tien trang b trong kho.
- Chi ph ve nhan lc cho hoat ong giam sat va quan ly.
- Thue
- Bao hiem
- Thiet hai ve hang ton kho do mat mat, hao hut, h hong khong s dung c
trong qua trnh ton tr.
Goi : Ctt : Chi ph ton tr trong nam
H : Chi ph ton tr tnh cho 1 n v hang trong mot nam
Ta co : Chi ph ton tr = lng ton kho trung bnh x chi ph ton tr 1 n v ton
kho trong nam
QTB
Vi : Qtb = (Qmax + Qmin)/2 = (Q+0)/2
=Q/2
Qtb = Q/2 Q Q Q Q
Qmax : Lng ton kho toi a
Qmin : Lng ton kho toi thieu (0)
Do o : Ctt = (Q/2).H
* Ta can phan biet 2 thuat ng : 0 0 0 0 0 T
. Tong chi ph ve hang ton kho :
TC = Ch + Ctt = (D/Q).S + (Q/2).H
. Tong chi ph cua hang ton kho :
TC = Ch+Ctt+Cmh=(D/Q).S+(Q/2).H+P.D
d. Chi ph thieu hang : La chi ph phan anh ket qua ve kinh te khi het hang trong
kho. Viec het hang trong kho se dan en 2 trng hp :
- Th nhat la : Bat khach hang phai ch cho ti khi co hang. ieu nay co the
lam mat i thien y muon hp tac vi doanh nghiep trong tng lai cua khach hang.
- Th hai la : Neu khong co san hang th se mat i c hoi ban hang.
Nh vay, tien li b mat do ban c t va thien cam cua khach hang b giam se
lam giam sut tiem nang ban hang trong tng lai.
4. Cac dang ton kho va cac bien phap giam so lng hang ton kho.
a. Cac dang ton kho : Hang ton kho trong he thong cung ng - san xuat va phan
phoi eu nham muc ch d phong nhng bat trac co the xay ra. Cac dang ton kho
c minh hoa qua s o di ay :
Cung ng San xuat Tieu thu
NVL tren ng x Thanh Thanh Thanh

San pham pham
Nha v/c
D tr pham
pham trong trong
cung Ban thanh pham trong
cap tren ng v/c
x d kho kho
dang kho
D tr nha nha
Phu tung thay the thanh ban ban
tren ng v/c
x pham
D tr buon le
b. Cac bien phap e giam so lng hang ton kho : T cac dang ton kho, ta co
cac bien phap sau :
1. Ap dung cac mo hnh ton kho e xac nh hang d tr toi u.
2. Ap dung ke hoach sa cha d phong e xac nh lng phu tung d tr chnh
xac.
3. Ap dung hnh thc san xuat day chuyen nham giam toi a lng san pham d
dang.
4. Nam chac nhu cau cua khach hang, tc la nam chac ve so lng san pham va
thi iem giao hang, t o co ke hoach san xuat va u khong d.
5. Ap dung ky thuat phan tch bien te e quyet nh chnh sach ton kho (xac nh
khi nao th tang hang, khi nao th khong).
III CAC MO HNH TON KHO :

1. Mo hnh san lng n hang kinh te c ban (EOQ) :
(The Basic Economic Order Quantity Model)
Mo hnh nay la mot trong nhng ky thuat kiem soat ton kho pho bien va lau i
nhat, no c nghien cu va e xuat t nam 1915 do ong Ford. W. Harris e xuat,
nhng en ngay nay no van c hau het cac doanh nghiep s dung. Khi s dung
mo hnh nay, ngi ta phai tuan theo nhng gia nh quan trong sau ay :
1. Nhu cau vat t trong 1 nam c biet trc va on nh (khong oi)
2. Thi gian van chuyen khong thay oi va phai biet trc thi gian, ke t khi
at hang cho ti khi nhan hang
3. So lng hang cua mot n hang c van chuyen trong mot chuyen hang.
4. Khong co viec thieu hang trong kho.
5. Khong co viec khau tr theo san lng.
Chung ta can xac nh vi san lng nao cua n hang th tong chi ph ve ton
kho thap nhat ?
Tc Q ? TC = Cdh + Ctt min
Chi
Hay TC = (D/Q).S + (Q/2).H ph TCmin min
Qua cong thc ta nhan thay rang :
. Chi ph at hang se giam Ctt neu san lng mot n
hang tang A
. Ngc lai, chi ph ton tr tang khi san lng mot
n hang tang. Q* San lng
Ta co the bieu dien cac chi ph nay len o th ben.

Qua o th ta thay : Tai nh cua ng tong chi ph (TC = Cdh + Ctt) co gia tr
thap nhat (min)
T nh cua ng tong chi ph, ta giong ng thang vuong goc xuong truc
hoanh, ng thang nay se i qua giao iem cua 2 ng chi ph at hang va chi
ph ton tr va cat truc hoanh tai san lng Q*.
Tai san lng Q* ta co : Ctt = OA
Cdh = OA
Ctt = Cdh
Nh vay, muon co san lng Q* e tong chi ph TC min phai thoa ieu kien
Ch = Ctt
Tc (D/Q*).S=(Q*/2).H San lng hang can mua toi u c van chuyen
mot lan la :

* Xac nh thi iem at hang lai (ROP) : (Reorder

Point)
Trong thc te, thi gian gia Q* luc at hang va nhan
hang co the ngan trong vong vai gi hoac rat dai en
hang thang. ROP
V vay, quyet nh khi nao se at hang lai se c

5L O t
quyet nh nh sau :
iem at hang lai (ROP) = Nhu cau hang ngay x thi gian van chuyen n
hang. Tc la thi iem ma san lng hang trong kho (ROP) = d x L
Vi d : Lng hang s dung trong 1 ngay em (nhu cau hang ngay)
L : Thi gian van chuyen
D (nhu cau hang nam)

Ta co : Nhu cau hang ngay (d) =
(lng hang s dung moi ngay) So ngay lam viec trong nam
Nh vay, mo hnh EOQ nay tra li 2 cau hoi :

. Mua vi san lng Q* bao nhieu ?
. Xac nh thi iem at hang lai (ROP = ?)
V du : Nha may CARIC ong xa lan phai dung ton 5mm, vi mc s dung 4.800
tam moi nam, moi nam lam viec 300 ngay. Chi ph ton tr hang nam la : 20.000 /1
tam, chi ph at hang la 100.000 /lan, thi gian van chuyen la 5 ngay ke t ngay
nhan n hang cho ti khi giao ton.
Hoi : . San lng n hang toi u va iem at hang lai la bao nhieu ?
. Hay xac nh so lng n hang mong muon trong nam va thi gian cach
quang gia 2 n hang.
. Tnh tong chi ph ve hang ton kho.
Giai :
. Theo cong thc tren ta tnh c san lng n at hang toi u la :
2.S .D 2 4.800 100.000
Q* = = = 219 tam
H 20.000
Ta co :
D = 4.800 tam
H = 20.000 /1 tam
S = 100.000 /1 lan
L = 5 ngay
Q* ? ROP ? N ? TC ?
. iem at hang lai la :
4.800
ROP = L d ; d =
300
4.800
ROP = 5 = 80 n v (tam)
300
. So lng n hang mong muon trong nam la :
N = D/Q = 4.800/219 = 22 n hang/nam
. Khoang cach thi gian gia 2 n hang c tnh theo cong thc :
So ngay lam viec trong nam
T=
So lng n hang mong muon (N)
Nh vay, T = 300/22 = 14 ngay.
. Tong chi ph ve hang ton kho c tnh theo cong thc :
TC = Ch + Ctt = (D/Q).S + (Q/2).H

Vi cac so lieu tren, ta tnh c tong chi ph hang nam ve ton kho la :
TC = 4.800/219 x 100.000 + 219/2 x 20.000
TC = 4.381.780
2. Mo hnh cung cap theo nhu cau san xuat (POQ) :

(Production Order Quantity Model)
V mo hnh nay ac biet phuc vu thch hp cho hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh
cua ngi at hang, nen no c goi la mo hnh san lng cung cap theo nhu cau
san xuat.
Vi mo hnh nay, moi gia thuyet khac giong nh mo hnh EOQ, iem khac biet
duy nhat la hang c a en lam nhieu chuyen.
Tc la : So lng hang cua mot n hang c van chuyen nhieu chuyen.
POQ EOQ
Bang phng phap giong nh mo hnh EOQ, ta co the tnh c san lng toi u
Q*. Neu ta goi :
Q - San lng cua n hang
t - Thi gian cung ng u so Qmax lng cho n hang
T - Chu ky cung ng, khoang cach thi gian ke
2 lan cung ng lien nhau
P - Lng hang cung ng moi ngay
T T
d - Nhu cau lng hang s dung moi ngay
t
P>d t
Ta co dang mo hnh POQ nh hnh ben

Trong mo hnh nay ta co :
Mc ton kho toi a :
Tong lng hang cung ng Tong lng hang s dung

Qmax = -
Trong thi gian t Trong thi gian t
Hay : Qmax = P.t - d.t
Mat khac ta lai co : San lng 1 n hang = Lng cung ng moi ngay x thi
gian cung ng
Hay : Q = P.t
t = Q/P
T o Qmax = P.Q/P - d.Q/P
Qmax = Q(1-d/P) (1)
. Muon tm c san lng toi u Q* e co TCmin, phai co ieu kien :
Ch = Ctt
Tc (D/Q).S = (Qmax/2).H; (2)
(Qmax/2 = QTB; Ctt = QTB.H)
Thay (1) vao (2) ta co :
d
Q * (1 )
D P .H
.S =
Q* 2
Nh vay, san lng hang toi u can mua trong trng hp lng hang cua mot
n hang c van chuyen nhieu lan la :
2.S.D
Q* =
d
H 1
p
V du : Cong ty N chuyen ban 1 loai san pham B co nhu cau hang nam ve loai
san pham nay la 6000 n v. Chi ph mua san pham B la 1.000 /1 n v. Chi ph
thc hien ton kho bang 10% so vi gia mua. Chi ph at hang la 25.000 /1 n
hang. Hang c cung cap lam nhieu chuyen va can 8 ngay e nhan hang ke t
ngay at hang. Nhu cau ban ra moi tuan la 96 san pham (moi tuan lam viec 6
ngay).
Hoi: 1. Lng at hang kinh te la bao nhieu ?
2. iem at hang lai ?
3. So lan at hang toi u trong nam ? (So lng n hang mong muon)
4. So ngay cach quang gia 2 lan at hang, biet rang mot nam lam viec 300
ngay.
5. Tong chi ph ve ton kho hang nam la bao nhieu ?
Giai :
1. Do lng hang c cung cap lam nhieu chuyen, nen lng at hang kinh te
se c tnh theo mo hnh POQ.
Ta co : Trong o :
2.S .D S = 25.000
Q* = H = 10% x 1.000 = 100
d
H 1 D = 6.000 n v
P L = 8 ngay
d = 96/6=16 n v
Thay vao ta c p = 6000/300 = 20 n v
2 25.000 6.000
Q* = = 3.873 n v
16
100 1
20
2. iem at hang lai la :
ROP = L x d = 8 x 16 = 128 n v
3. So lan at hang toi u trong nam la (So lng n hang mong muon)
N = D/Q = 6.000/3.873 = 1,55 n hang/nam
4. So ngay cach quang gia 2 lan at hang la :
T = 300/1,55 = 194 ngay
5. Tong chi ph ve ton kho hang nam c tnh theo cong thc:
TC = Cdh + Ctt = (D/Q).S + (Q/2).(1 - d/p).H
Thay vao ta co :
TC = (6.000/3.873) x 25.000 + (3.873/2)x(1-16/20) x 100
TC = 38.730 + 38.730 = 77.460 ong
3. Mo hnh ton kho co san lng gi lai ni cung ng

hai mo hnh tren khong co s thieu hang trong ton kho. Tuy nhien tren thc te
co nhieu trng hp thieu hut co nh trc, tc la co s tnh toan trc cho s
thieu hut. Thong thng s thieu hang co nh trc nay c ap dung vi nhng
loai hang ton kho co chi ph ton tr qua cao. Chang han oi vi nhng nha ban le
xe hi va phu tung.
Vi ly do tren, mo hnh nay gia nh la co tnh trang d tr cho thieu hut lng
hang e lai ni cung ng c chap nhan.
Do o mo hnh nay con goi la mo hnh ton kho thieu hut co nh trc. Cac gia
nh khac cua mo hnh nay giong cac mo hnh trc o.
Chung ta cung gia nh them rang : Doanh thu khong he b suy giam do s d
tr thieu hut nay.
Nh vay mo hnh nay can giai quyet 3 van e :
1. Mua vi san lng Q* bao nhieu ?
Q*
2. em ve vi san lng b* bao nhieu ?
Q*
3. e lai vi san lng Q * - b*
Q*-b*
b* b* la bao nhieu ?
Neu ta goi :
Q*-b*
D - nhu cau hang nam (oi vi nhng loai vat t hiem va kho kiem)
B - Chi ph cho 1 n v hang gi lai ni cung ng hang nam.
Q - San lng cua mot n hang .
Ta co s o cua mo hnh nh hnh ben.
Vi dang mo hnh nay ta co tong chi ph ve ton kho gom 3 loai chi ph :
- Chi ph at hang
- Chi ph ton tr
- Chi ph cho san lng hang gi lai :
Tc la : TC = Ch + Ctt + Chi ph cho san lng hang gi lai.
Hay : TC = (D/Q).S + (b/2).H + (Q - b).B min
2 SD B + H
Q* = (1)
H B
2SD B
b* = (2)
H B+H
Chia (1) cho (2) ta co :
2 SD B + H

Q*
= H B =
( B + H )2 = B + H
b* 2.S .D B B2 B

H B+H
B
b* = Q * .
B+H
Vay ta co san lng hang gi lai ni cung ng la :
Q* - b* = Q* - Q*.B/(B+H)
B
Q * b* = Q * 1 (3)
B+H
V du : Mot cong ty ban cac mui khoan toc o cao co nhu cau hang nam la :
20.000 mui/nam, chi ph ton tr la 20.000/1 cai, chi ph at hang la 150.000/1 n
hang, chi ph cho 1 n v hang gi lai ni cung ng la : 100.000/cai/nam.
Hay tnh : 1. Lng at hang kinh te ?
2. San lng hang em ve ?
3. San lng hang e lai ni cung ng ?
Giai :
1. Lng at hang kinh te c tnh theo cong thc :
2.S .D B + H Trong o :
Q* =
H B D = 20.000 mui khoan/nam
S = 150.000
H = 20.000
B = 100.000
Thay vao ta co :
2 150.000 20.000 100.000 + 20.000
Q* = = 360.000 Q* = 600 mui
20.000 100.000
khoan
2. San lng hang em ve la :
2.S .D B
b* =
H B+H
Thay vao ta co :
2 150.000 20.000 100.000
b* = = 250.000 b*= 500 mui khoan
20.000 100.000 + 20.000
3. San lng hang e lai ni cung ng la :
Q* - b* = 600 - 500 = 100 mui khoan

B
Hay : Q * b* = Q * 1
B+H
100.000
Q * b* = 6001 = 100 mui khoan
100.000 + 20.000
4. Mo hnh khau tr theo san lng :

Viec khau tr theo san lng thc chat la s giam gia hang khi khach hang mua
loai hang o vi so lng ln.
Muc tieu tong quat hoa cac mo hnh ma chung ta a va ang xet ti la toi thieu
hoa tong chi ph ton kho.
Neu chung ta mua vi san lng ln th se c hng gia khau tr (giam gia),
nhng chi ph ton tr se tang. Tuy nhien, neu xet chi ph at hang khi san lung
cang tang th chi ph at hang cang giam.
V vay, van e chu yeu khi la chon san lng toi u la xem xet gia chi ph
mua hang va tong chi ph ve ton kho.
Ta co : Tong chi ph cua hang ton kho = Chi ph at hang + chi ph ton tr + Chi
ph mua hang
Hay : TC = (D/Q).S+ (Q/2).H+ P.D
Do co nhieu mc khau tr, nen qua trnh xac nh Q* can mua toi u se tien
hanh qua 4 bc sau ay :
. Bc 1 : Xac nh cac mc san lng toi u Q* theo cac mc gia khau tr khac
nhau bang cong thc :
2.S.D
Q* =
I .P
Trong o :
I : La ty le % chi ph ton tr tnh theo gia mua mot n v hang
P : Gia mua 1 n v hang.
Ph ton tr H gi ay la I.P (v gia ca cua hang hoa la 1 bien so trong tong chi
ph ton tr).
. Bc 2 : ieu chnh san lng cua n hang len mc san lng toi thieu e
c hng gia khau tr.
. Bc 3 : Tnh tong chi ph cua hang ton kho cho cac mc san lung a c
ieu chnh bc 2 :
TC = Ch + Ctt + Cmh
D Q
Hay TC = .S + I .P + P.D
Q 2
. Bc 4 : Chon Q* nao co tong chi ph cua hang ton kho thap nhat a c xac
nh bc 3. Q* c chon chnh la san lng toi u cua n hang vi TC min.
V du : Cong ty Vietronic mua may ghi hnh vi gia 350 USD/1 may, ty le chi
ph ton tr gia mua 1 n v hang la 10%. Chi ph at hang la 120 USD/1 n hang.
So ban ra hang thang la 400 may. Cong ty Sharp la n v cung cap e ngh mc
gia khau tr nh sau :
STT San lng khau tr Gia khau tr

1 1-99 350 USD
2 100-199 325 USD
3 200 300 USD
Hay xac nh mc san lng n hang toi u va chi ph hang ton kho toi thieu ?
Giai :
Ta co : D = 400 x 12 = 4.800 may
S = 120 USD
I = 10%
P : Gia mua 1 n v hang
e xac nh mc san lng toi u Q* va chi ph hang ton kho toi thieu ta tien
hanh tuan t theo 4 bc sau ay :
. Bc 1 : Xac nh cac mc san lng Q* theo cac mc gia khau tr theo cong
thc :
2SD
Q* =
IP
2 120 4800
Q1 * = = 181 may
0,1 350
2 120 4800
Q2 * = = 188 may
0,1 325
2 120 4800
Q3 * = = 196 may
0,1 300
. Bc 2 : ieu chnh cac mc san lng Q* len mc c hng gia khau tr

(neu Q* mc thap hn mc c hng gia khau tr) :
- Vi Q*1 = 181 c mua vi mc gia 350 USD a vt qua day khau tr 1 - 99
ma le ra phai c mua vi gia 325 USD nen san lng Q*1 nay la vo ngha, do o
ta e nguyen va khong xet en.
- Vi Q*2 = 188 may, se c mua vi mc gia 325 USD nam trong khoang
khau tr : 100 - 199 nen khong can ieu chnh (gi nguyen).
- Vi Q*3 = 196 may, vi gia 300 USD ta can ieu chnh len mc san lng toi
thieu la 200 e hng gia khau tr (v 196 thap hn day khau tr 200 tr len).
. Bc 3 : Tnh TC=(D/Q).S + (Q/2).I.P + P.D cho cac mc san lng Q* a

c ieu chnh bc 2 (Ta ch can so sanh 2 mc Q*2 = 188 va Q*3=196 200)
TC188 = (4.800/188)x120 + (188/2)x0,1x325 + 325x4.800
= 1.566.118 USD
TC200 = (4.800/200)x120 + (200/2)x0,1x300 + 300x4.800
= 1.445.880 USD
. Bc 4 : Ta thay mc san lng n hang toi u la Q*=200 v ng vi tong chi
ph cua hang ton kho toi thieu la : 1.445.880 USD
5. Mo hnh xac suat vi thi gian cung ng khong oi :

Cac mo hnh chung ta xet ben tren eu gia nh la nhu cau biet trc va khong
oi. mo hnh nay, nhu cau hang ton kho khong biet trc, nhng co the nhan
dang c thong qua cong cu phan phoi xac suat.
Nh vay trong mo hnh nay ta phai xac nh c va duy tr mot lng ton kho
tang them con goi la lng hang ton kho an toan (e khi can co the lay trong kho
ra, nhng neu d tr nhieu th chi ph ton kho cao, ngc lai neu d tr qua t se
dan en thiet hai do thieu hang - phai en bu cho khach hang).
Do o muc tieu cua mo hnh nay la : Tm lng d tr an toan sao cho tong chi
ph ve ton tr va thiet hai do thieu hang gay ra la nho nhat.
Ve thc chat viec tang them lng ton kho an toan la thay oi lai iem at hang
(ROP) co ngha la :
ROP = L x d + Lng d tr an toan (safety stock)
Trng hp lng d tr an toan = 0 th iem at hang lai la:
ROP = L x d
Tom lai : Trong mo hnh nay th D khong biet Lng d tr an toan : - Nhieu
: Chi ph ton kho tang
- t : Gay thiet hai do thieu hang.
V the phai xac nh lng hang d tr an toan toi u e tong chi ph la nho
nhat.
V du : Tai 1 x nghiep nhu cau 1 loai vat t c thong ke nh sau :
Nhu
30 50 100 150 200
cau
(n
v)
Xac 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,1
suat
- iem at hang lai la ROP = 100 n v

- Chi ph ton tr la : 10.000 /v/nam.
- Chi ph thiet hai do thieu hang la 50.000 /n v
- Trong nam co 3 lan at hang lai
Hay xac nh mc d tr an toan toi u ?
Giai :
Ta co : Neu lng d tr an toan la 100 n v th iem at hang lai se la :
ROP = 100 + 100 = 200 n v
Luc nay chi ph ton tr tang them se la 100 x 10.000 = 1.000.000
Va chi ph do thieu hang se = 0
. Neu lng d tr an toan = 0 th iem at hang lai se la :
ROP = 100 + 0 = 100 n v
Luc nay se co 2 kha nang thieu hut xay ra :
- Khi nhu cau xay ra la 150, se thieu 50 n v vi xac suat la 0,2 va so lan xuat
hien thieu hang la 3, vi chi ph thiet hai do thieu hut mot n v la 50.000 .
- Khi nhu cau xay ra la : 200 se thieu hang : 100 n v vi xac suat la : 0,1 va
so lan xuat hien thieu hut la : 3, vi chi ph thiet hai do thieu hut mot n v la :
50.000
Vi cach tnh toan trnh bay tren, ta co the lap bieu tnh toan tong chi ph va
xac nh mc d tr an toan toi u nh sau :
Mc Chi ph thiet
Chi ph ton Tong chi ph
d tr hai do thieu
kho tang them TC
an hang
toan
100 100 x 10.000 0 1.000.000 + 0
= 1.000.000 = 1.000.000
50 50 x 10.000 = 50 x 0,1 x 3 x 500.000 +
500.000 50.000 = 750.000 =
750.000 1.250.000
0 0 x 10.000 = (50 x 0,2 x 3 + 0 + 3.000.000
0 100 x 0,1 x 3) = 3.000.000
x 50.000 =
3.000.000
Nh vay : Mc d tr an toan toi u la 100 n v v : TC100 = 1.000.000 la min
IV. AP DUNG KY THUAT PHAN TCH BIEN TE E AP DUNG

CHNH SACH TON KHO :
Nh vao ky thuat phan tch bien te nen ta co the xac nh mc ton tr toi u cho
nhieu mo hnh ton kho qua viec tnh toan lai bien te MP (Marginal Profit) va lo
bien te (Marginal Loss)
Nguyen tac : Ch tang them 1 n v hang ton kho khi li bien te lo bien te,
tc la khi MP ML.
. Goi P la tong xac suat xuat hien tnh cho tat ca cac trng hp nhu cau kha
nang (hay la xac suat ban het)
. (1-P) la tong xac suat xuat hien tnh cho cac trng hp nhu cau < kha nang
(Hay la xac suat khong ban het)
Nh vay, lai bien te mong i se bang xac suat P nhan vi lai bien te : P x MP.
Tng t, khoang ton that bien te cung c tch bang cach lay xac suat ban khong
c nhan vi ton that bien te (1 - P) x ML
Nguyen tac nay c bieu th di dang bieu thc sau ay :
P.MP (1 - P).ML
P.MP ML - P.ML
P(MP + ML) ML
Do o ta co : ieu kien e tang them hang nham nh ra chnh sach ton kho la :
ML
P
ML + MP
e lam sang to nguyen tac tren, ta xet v du sau ay.
V du : Mot ca hang co ban nhng hop khan giay, ca hang mua vao vi gia
3USD/hop, ban ra vi gia 6 USD/hop. Nhng hop khong tieu thu c se c tra
lai cho nha cung ng nhng ch nhan c 2 USD do phai tr i 1 USD cho moi hop
ve chi ph quan ly va ton tr ma ho phai thc hien . Xac suat xuat hien cua nhu cau
(xac suat ban c) c phan phoi. Trong bang sau :
Nhu cau 5 hop 6 hop 7 hop
Xac suat xuat 0,2 0,3 0,5
hien
Ta co : . Li bien te MP = 6 - 3 = 3USD
. Lo bien te : ML = 3 - 2 = 1 USD
Nh vay, ieu kien e tang them hang la
ML 1
P = = 0,25
ML + MP 1 + 3
(P = 0,25; con goi la P ieu kien)
Qua bieu phan phoi xac suat cua nhu cau ben tren ta co the xac nh c xac
suat P ma o P nhu cau kha nang cung ng.
Kha Xac P (Tong xac suat xuat hien
Nhu
nang suat cac NC K/N)
cau
5 5 0,2 0,2 + 0,3 + 0,5 = 1>0,25
6 6 0,3 0,3 + 0,5 = 0,8 > 0,25
7 7 0,5 0,5 = 0,5 > 0,25
Ket luan : Ta co the tang them hang va chnh sach ton kho toi u la : d tr 7
hop khan giay
CHNG VI :
HOACH NH NHU CAU VAT T
I. TONG QUAT
Trong cach phan tch ton kho chng Quan tr ton kho ta eu can c vao 2
gia nh :
- Nhu cau cua cac loai hang ton kho theo thi gian hau nh khong oi, neu co th
s bien oi o la khong ang ke.
- Cac nhu cau cua bat ky loai hang ton kho eu oc lap vi nhau. V the, khi
mot hang muc san xuat phc tap co the can ti hang tram, tham ch en hang ngan
chung loai vat t d tr dung e san xuat va lap rap. Neu tat ca cac hang muc nay
eu co nhu cau oc lap vi nhau, th cong viec d bao phai thc hien vi mot khoi
lng cong viec het sc ln.
Tuy nhien trong thc te thng co nhieu loai hang ton kho co moi quan he phu
thuoc lan nhau nh : Nhu cau 1 loai hang nay phu thuoc vao nhu cau 1 loai hang
khac, va neu nh nha san xuat biet c chung loai san pham cuoi cung can san
xuat va biet c san pham nay bao gom nhng bo phan cau thanh nao, th tren
thc te ch can co mot so lieu d bao : o la so lng san pham cuoi cung. Nhu
cau vat t oi vi rat nhieu chi tiet hoac bo phan cua mat hang cuoi cung khong
phai co c nh d bao ma do ta tnh toan ra. Viec tnh toan nay da vao so d
bao cua san pham cuoi cung va so lng cac linh kien can co e tao nen san pham
cuoi cung o.
V du trong san xuat ghe ngoi, moi ghe can 4 chan, neu d bao co the ban c
trong thang ti la 400 ghe, th ta khong can phai d bao so chan ghe la bao nhieu,
ma ch viec nhan so ghe can san xuat (400) cho so chan can cho moi ghe (4) th se
co so chan ghe can phai san xuat trong thang ti la (1.600). Nh vay, nhu cau chan
ghe phu thuoc vao nhu cau cua so ghe can san xuat.
V du tren, ngoai s giai thch moi lien he gia nhu cau cua hang muc vat t oc
lap vi nhu cau cua hang muc vat t phu thuoc, ma con cho ta thay viec tiet kiem
thi gian va cong sc khi phai d bao 1 so lng cac chi tiet hp thanh oi vi mot
san pham phc tap hn, nh xe hi chang han. Tren thc te, ngi ta ch can tien
hanh mot lan d bao oi vi so lng xe hi can san xuat ra, con so lng cho tng
loai chi tiet hp thanh xe hi th ch can da vao so lng xe hi d bao e tnh
toan ra. Chnh nh s n gian trong d bao ma trong nganh cong nghiep o to cung
nh cac nganh san xuat cac san pham co nhieu bo phan cau thanh khac eu s
dung he thong MRP (Material Requirement Planning) tc la he thong hoach nh
nhu cau vat t (la phng phap xac nh nhu cau cac mat hang phu thuoc trong moi
trng san xuat) va tan ong triet ly cua MRP.
Triet ly cua MRP la : Khong e hang ton kho neu cha can en mon hang o.
Hang at phai en ung luc ang co nhu cau. Tc la mot khi co nhu cau, ngi ta
se at ung mot lng hang nhat nh ung theo nhu cau va hoach nh sao cho
lng hang nay en ung th gian can thiet. Triet ly en ung luc nay da tren
moi lch trnh MRP, giup cho nhieu cong ty khi s dung MRP giam c lng ton
kho cua mnh rat ln.
Nh vay, viec dung cach at hang ton kho theo tng thi ky mot se ap ng
c loai nhu cau can cho tng giai oan mot (chang han can tuan nao at tuan o
vi so lng ung theo nhu cau nen khong co ton kho). ay la ac tnh phan biet
cua cach tiep can MRP. Do o tren thc te MRP con goi la : Hoach nh nhu cau
theo tng thi ky.
Cach tiep can ton kho co ien ma ta a xet chng trc la dung mo hnh
EOQ e lap ay so d tr ton kho moi khi thay mc nay tut xuong mc toi thieu
nham gi cho mc ton kho luon co nh. Quan niem ve lap ay mc ton kho la oi
nghch vi muc tieu giam bt mc ton kho. He thong MRP chung ta ang xem xet
la he thong ton kho so khong, tc la co gi sao cho khong co ton kho tr phi can
cho san xuat hien hanh. Nhieu hang ln a ap dung cach tiep can nay e giam bt
mc ton kho tong the va a at c mc tiet kiem ve chi ph ton kho kha ln.
Viec mc ton kho co giam i, nhng no khong gay anh hng en lch trnh san
xuat, v s dung ton kho theo tng thi ky mot co lien he en tien o san xuat va
do co s phoi hp gia MRP vi viec mua vat t, quan ly ton kho va tien o san
xuat mot cach ro rang.
II. TRNH T HOACH NH NHU CAU VAT T :

1. Hoach nh nhu cau tong hp :
e co the tong hp chnh xac cac loai nhu cau vat lieu cho hoat ong san xuat
ngoai viec thiet ke ban ve va n hang vat lieu cho tng loai san pham, ngi ta
con thiet ke ban ve va n hang cho tng bo phan cau thanh san pham, tng nhom
linh kien, tng chi tiet san pham v.v...
V du : Trng hp n hang vat lieu cua loai san pham A bao gom 2 bo phan
cau thanh la B va C, hai bo phan cau thanh B va C lai bao gom nhng nhom chi
tiet phu thuoc khac... Do o ngi ta se xay dng nhng ban ve chi tiet khong ch
cho san pham A ma con xay dng u chung loai va san lng cho tng loai vat lieu
e che tao san pham, bo phan cau thanh va chi tiet cua san pham.
- Gia s nhu cau loai san pham A la : 100 n v, moi n v san pham A can co
mot n v hang B va mot n v hang C. Moi n v hang B lai co 2 n v hang D
va 2 n v hang C. n v hang C cau thanh nen san pham A lai can co mot n v
hang E va 1 n v hang F. Moi n v hang C cau thanh nen hang B cung gom co
mot n v hang E va 1 n v hang F. Nh vay, nhu cau cac chi tiet loai hang B, C,
D, E, F hoan toan phu thuoc vao nhu cau cua san pham A.
Di ay la s o cau truc san pham A the hien cac loai hang ton kho co moi
quan he phu thuoc nh sau :
Da vao s o nay, ta co the tnh toan nhu cau cua cac loa hang can thiet e
che tao 100 san pham A nh sau :
B(1) C(1)
D(2) C(2) E(1) F(1)
E(1) F(1)
- Loai hang B : 100 x 1 = 100 n v

- Loai hang C : (100 x 1) + (100 x 2) = 300 n v
- Loai hang D : 100 x 2 = 200 n v
- Loai hang E : (100 x 1) + (200 x 1) = 300 n v
- Loai hang F : (100 x 1) + (200 x 1) = 300 n v
. e giup cho viec tnh toan nhu cau cua tng loai hang c thuan li, ngi ta
a tien hanh ky hieu (ma hoa) nhng loai vat lieu nhanh thap nhat.
Vi s o cau truc san pham A tren, chung ta thay co 3 cap nh sau :
San pham A : cap 0
Hang B : Nam cap I (hay mc o I)
Hang D va C : Nam cap II (Hay mc o II)
Hang E va F : Nam cap III (Hay mc o III).
Nh vay hang C, E va F c ky hieu cap thap nhat ma no ton tai. Hang C
va ton tai cap I thuoc san pham A, va ton tai cap II thuoc hang B, do o C
c ky hieu cap thap nhat la cap II.
Tng t cho hang E & F va ton tai 2 cap II va III nen c ky hieu cap III.
Cung vi v du tren, da vao cau truc san pham A a cho va phai san xuat 100
san pham A e giao hang vao tuan th 8, cung vi thi gian san xuat va lng ton
kho cho theo bang di ay.
Loai hang A B C D E F
Thi gian s.xuat (tuan) 1 2 3 1 1 1
Lng ton kho san co 10 20 0 10 10 50
0
Chung ta tnh c tong nhu cau vat lieu cho 100 san pham A. Trong bang sau
ay :
A
Tuan le Thi gian

Nhom hang phan phoi san
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
xuat
A - nh ky yeu cau 100 1 tuan
nh ky a en. 100
B - nh ky yeu cau 100 2 tuan
nh ky a en 100
C - nh ky yeu cau 200 100 3 tuan
nh ky a en 200 100
D - nh ky yeu cau 200 1 tuan
nh ky a en 200
E - nh ky yeu cau 200 100 1 tuan
nh ky a en 200 100
F - nh ky yeu cau 200 100 1 tuan
nh ky a en 200 100
Qua bang tren ta thay :
- Neu muon co 100 san pham A vao tuan le th 8, th phai lap rap san pham A
vao tuan th 7.
- Muon lap rap san pham A vao tuan th 7 th tuan th 7 ta phai can co : 100
n v hang B va 100 n v hang C.
- e co hang B tuan th 7 th n v hang B phai c a en vao tuan th 5
(do loai hang B phai san xuat trong thi gian 2 tuan).
- e co hang C tuan th 7 th n v hang C cung phai c a en vao tuan
th 4 (do loai hang C phai san xuat trong thi gian 3 tuan).
Tng t nh vay, bang cach tnh lui tr lai chung ta se tnh c nhu cau va
thi iem a hang en cho cac loai hang E, D, F con lai.
2. Hoach nh nhu cau rong :

Sau khi hoach nh nhu cau tong hp ve vat lieu, chung ta tiep tuc tnh nhu cau
rong cho tng loai vat lieu bang cach lay tong lng vat lieu tnh theo nhu cau tr
i lng vat lieu ton kho san co.
S d phai tnh nhu cau rong ve vat lieu la v e tranh mot s d tr qua mc so
vi nhu cau.
Trc khi tnh toan, chung ta can thong nhat cac ky hieu sau ay trong viec
hoach nh nhu cau rong ve vat lieu :
1. KT - Kch thc lo hang
2. TG - Thi gian phan phoi (hay thi gian dung e san xuat)
3. TKC - Lng ton kho san co
4. Dat - Lng d tr an toan
5. Dh - Lng d tr ac biet trong tng lai
6. C - Cap (hay nhanh hoac mc o) trong cau truc cua san pham
7. LH - Loai hang
8. NC - Tong lng nhu cau
9. TKt - Lng ton kho san co a nh trc.
10. NR - Nhu cau rong ve vat lieu
11. Ntn - Lng hang tiep nhan theo ke hoach n hang
12. NVC - Lng hang can van chuyen en theo ke hoach cua n hang
Phng phap hoach nh nhu cau rong ve vat lieu c xay dng tng t nh
cach hoach nh tong hp nhu cau ve vat lieu tren. Bat au t san pham A.
Chung ta xac nh ngc tr lai cho cac loai hang phat sinh khac t san pham A.
e thc hien nhng phep tnh nay, ta phai s dung cac ket qua t viec xac nh cau
truc san pham, lng vat lieu ton kho san co va ca thi gian phan phoi cho moi loai
hang.
Vi cac ky hieu neu tren, ban ke hoach nhu cau rong ve vat lieu c tnh toan
nh sau. Bat au vi tong nhu cau san pham A la 100 n v vao tuan th 8, do co
10 n v a ton tr san nen nhu cau rong (NR) va lng hang tiep nhan theo ke
hoach n hang (Ntn) la 90 n v vao tuan th 8. V thi gian phan phoi cho viec
tao san pham A la 1 tuan le, do o lng hang can van chuyen en theo ke hoach
cua n hang (NVC) se la 90 n v vao au tuan th 7.
Cung trong tuan th 7, chung ta se thc hien 90 n v hang B (90 x 1) va 90 n
v hang C (90 x 1). Tng t cach tnh tren, ta se tnh c cac ch tieu NC, NR, Ntn
va NVC cho nhom hang : B, C, D, E va F, c the hien qua bang sau (qua he thong
may tnh) :
KT TG TKC Dat Db C LH Ch Tuan le

Tieu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 10 - - 0 A NC 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 100
Nhan TKdt 10
theo NR 90
lo Ntn 90
NVC 90
2 20 - - 1 B NC 20 20 20 20 20 20 90B
Nha TKdt 20
theo NR 70
lo Ntn 70
NVC 70
3 0 - - 2 C NC 0 0 0 0 0 0 90C
Nhan TKdt 0
theo NR 90
lo Ntn 90
NVC 90
1 100 - - 2 D NC 100 100 100 100 140D
Nhan TKdt 100
theo NR 40
lo Ntn 40
NVC 40
3 0 - - 2 C NC 0 0 0 0 140C
Nhan TKdt 0
theo NR 140
lo Ntn 140
NVC 140
1 10 -- - 3 E NC 10 10 10 90E
Nhan TKdt 10
theo NR 80
lo Ntn 80
NVC 80
1 50 - - 3 F NC 50 50 50 90F
Nhan TKdt 50
theo NR 40
lo Ntn 40
NVC 40
1 0 - - 3 E NC 0 140E
Nhan TKdt 0
theo NR 140
lo Ntn 140
NVC 140
1 0 - - 3 F NC 0 140F
Nhan TKdt 0
theo NR 140
lo Ntn 140
NVC 140
3. Hoach nh nhu cau tng bo phan :

Trong th du phan tren, chung ta ch khao sat cau truc san pham A va gia nh
rang ch san xuat duy nhat mot loai san pham A trong thi ky 8 tuan le :
Tuy nhien trong thc te thng xuat hien nhu cau cho nhieu loai san pham trong
cung mot thi gian. Do o, vi moi loai san pham, nha quan tr tac nghiep phai
chuan b mot lch tien o san xuat, ong thi can phai biet phoi hp chung lai vi
nhau e hnh thanh duy nhat mot lch quan ly e ieu khien tien o cho cac loai san
pham, ben canh o con phai co mot ke hoach duy nhat ve nhu cau rong vat lieu the
hien qua s o sau ay.
Hay xac nh nhu cau cua bo phan C (cho toan x nghiep ch khong phai rieng
cho mot san pham nao) e san xuat 2 loai san pham A va B va cho nhu cau ban
bo phan C ra ngoai :
A B
- Nhu cau ban bo phan
C
C D C E
Lng thi gian 4 tuan Lng thi gian 6 tuan
(cho A) (cho B)
Nh vay, e hoach nh nhu cau bo phan C cho san pham A va B va nhu

cau C e ban ra theo lch san xuat va lch ban hang, ta tien hanh nh sau :
Lch ban ra cua
Lch san xuat cua hang A Lch san xuat cua hang B hang C
Tuan th 7 8 9 10 Tuan th 8 9 10 11 Tuan th 1 2

Nhu cau Nhu cau Nhu cau
cua hang 30 40 20 25 cua hang 35 40 50 30 cua hang 10 10
C C C
Tuan th 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... ... ...

Tong nhu
cau cua 10 45 70 90 50 25 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
hang C
III. CAC MO HNH CUNG NG VAT T :

Trong cac phan nghien cu ve he thong hoach nh nhu cau vat lieu tren,
chung ta a s dung ky thuat : a hang en tng lo ng vi nhu cau.
Nh vay, nguyen tac cua he thong hoach nh nhu cau vat t la : Viec san xuat
ch tien hanh khi co nhu cau, v the se khong co lng d tr an toan va khong co
tnh trang a vat lieu en trc e d tr.
Tuy nhien, phng thc nay ch nen ap dung cho nhng n hang co kch thc
nho, cac n hang c thiet lap thng xuyen, lng ton kho ung thi iem thap
va ch ap dung cho nhu cau phu thuoc.
Rieng oi vi nhng trng hp chi ph thiet lap va tien hanh n hang ln va

bo phan quan ly khong co kha nang bo sung hay thc hien viec cung ng hang
ung thi iem. Trong trng hp nay ngi ta co the chon cac mo hnh at hang
khac a c trnh bay trong chng Quan tr ton kho.
Sau ay chung ta se lan lt khao sat, phan tch va so sanh cac mo hnh cung
ng vat t theo phng thc tren trong he thong hoach nh nhu cau vat t :
1. Mo hnh cung cap theo lo ng vi nhu cau (Lot for lot. L.F.L)
Trong mo hnh nay, lng vat t se c a en e s dung ngay ng vi nhu
cau cua tng thi ky (co ngha la : Thi ky nao can th at vi so lng theo nhu
cau cho thi ky o, v vay khong co ton kho). Ta co the hnh dung qua v du sau
ay:
V du 1 : Cong ty N muon xac nh chi ph at hang, chi ph ton tr va tong chi
ph theo tieu chuan cung cap hang theo lo ng vi nhu cau.
Biet rang: Chi ph thiet lap 1 n hang la 100.000 , chi ph ton tr la 100/1n
v/1 tuan. Lch nhu cau san xuat phan anh nhu cau rong c the hien qua bang
sau:
Kch thc lo hang trong he thong hoach nh nhu cau vat
t Lot for lot
Tuan th 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Tong nhu cau 400 1.20 800 360 500 1.000
(NC) 0
Lng ton kho
0 0 0 0 0 0
san co (TKC)
Lng hang
400 1200 800 360 500 1.000 0
a en (NVC)
Nhn vao bang ta thay : Do khong co lng ton tr, nen chi ph ton tr bang
khong. Nhu cau bnh quan trong moi tuan le la: 710 n v (4.260/6). So lan thiet
lap n hang la 6.
Do o ta co :
. Chi ph thiet lap n hang la Ch = 6 x 100.000 = 600.000
. Chi ph ton tr la : Ctt = 0
Va tong chi ph se la : TC1 = Cdh + Ctt = 600.000
. Pham vi ap dung :
- Lng vat t cung ng gan ni san xuat
- Khi x nghiep a lien ket theo chieu doc.
(V du : Quang thep o to ca hang)
2. Ky thuat xac nh kch thc lo hang theo mo hnh EOQ:

Mo hnh EOQ ma chung ta a nghien cu trong chng Quan tr ton kho co
the c coi nh la mot ky thuat xac nh kch thc lo hang. Tuy nhien mo hnh
EOQ nay ch thch hp khi nhu cau cua cac loai hang la oc lap vi nhau va khong
oi trong cac thi ky. Mac du vay, chung ta van co the ap dung mo hnh EOQ trong
he thong hoach nh nhu cau vat t phu thuoc.
Viec ap dung mo hnh nay trong he thong hoach nh nhu cau vat t c the
hien qua v du sau ay :
V du 2 :
Vi nhng so lieu a cho v du tren, hay xac nh chi ph ton tr va chi ph
thiet lap n hang trong 1 chu ky keo dai 6 tuan le cua hoat ong san xuat.
Ta tnh san lng Q* theo cong thc :
2 SD
Q* =
H
Vi D = 710 x 52 (tuan) = 36.920 n v
Thay vao ta c :
2 100.000 36.920
Q* = = 1.192 n v
100 52
Nh vay so lan thiet lap n hang la :
N = D/Q=36.920/1.192=31 lan/nam
Ta co chi ph at hang hang nam la :
Ch = (D/Q).S=31 x 100.000 = 3.100.000
. Chi ph ton tr hang nam la :
Ctt = (Q/2)H=(1.192/2) x (100 x 52) = 3.099.200
Do o : Tong chi ph hang nam se la :
TC = Ch + Ctt = 3.100.000 + 3.099.200 = 6.199.200
Nh vay, tong chi ph phai bo ra khi xac nh kch thc lo hang theo phng
phap mo hnh EOQ se la :
TC = 6.199.200 x 6/52 = 715.292/6 tuan
Tuy nhien ta can lu y rang : Chi ph TC = 715.292/6 tuan va tnh tren la
con so bnh quan trong ieu kien mo hnh EOQ co nhu cau khong oi (Bnh quan
710 n v/tuan).
The nhng tren thc te nhu cau lai luon thay oi, ta co the thay ieu nay trong
bieu di ay :
nh kch thc lo hang bang ky thuat EOQ

Tuan th 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Tong nhu cau 400 1.20 800 360 500 1.00
0 0
Lng ton kho san 792 784 1.17 816 316 508
co 6
Lng hang a 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19
en 2 2 2 2
Da vao bieu tren e tnh ta thay tong chi ph cho viec thiet lap n hang va ton
tr trong nh ky 6 tuan le se co nhng chenh lech so vi tong chi ph trong ieu
kien mo hnh EOQ co nhu cau khong oi :
Ta co : Chi ph at va thiet lap n hang se la :
Cdh = 4 x 100.000 = 400.000
. Chi ph ton tr se la :
Ctt = (792 + 784 + 1.176 + 816 + 316 + 508) x 100/tuan = 439.200
Do o tong chi ph se la :
TC2 = 400.000 + 439.200 = 839.200 > 715.292
Ta thay : Chi ph nay cung ln hn so vi ky thuat Lot for Lot (TC2 > TC1). S d
nh vay la do co s tieu dung (nhu cau) khong co nh trong tng thi ky (cac tuan
le).
. Pham vi ap dung : Ch ap dung khi x nghiep cung cap xa va a en mot
lng hang giong nhau oi vi moi thi ky.
3. Xac nh kch thc lo hang theo mo hnh can oi theo tng bo phan thi gian.
(Part period Balancing technique)
Mo hnh can oi theo tng bo phan thi gian (can oi cac thi ky bo phan) la
mot ky thuat tiep can rat nang ong va hieu qua trong viec tm ra kch thc lo
hang kinh te nhat, lam giam c tong chi ph (bao gom chi ph thiet lap n hang
va chi ph ton tr).
ay la cach tiep can nham muc ch xac nh cho c san lng n hang, ma
o chi ph thiet lap n hang bang vi chi ph ton tr.
Tuy trong thc te kho tm c mot san lng ma o chi ph thiet lap n hang
bang chi ph ton tr, nhng theo phng phap nay chung ta se chap nhan mot san
lng ma tai o chi ph thiet lap va at hang xap x bang chi ph ton tr.
Tc la Ch Ctt TC min
e ro them ve mo hnh nay, ta co the xem xet v du sau ay :
V du : Vi so lieu a cho v du 1 - Ta co bang tong nhu cau la :
Tuan th 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Tong nhu 400 1.20 800 360 500 1.00
cau 0 0
Lng ton 0
kho
Nhn vao bang ta thay : Nhu cau cua thi ky (tuan th) 1 cha c ap ng
bang lng ton kho san co, do o nhu cau vat t ma n hang phai ap ng se bat
au ngay t tuan th 1.
e xac nh san lng n hang, chung ta co the ghep nhu cau cua cac tuan sau
lai vi nhau e cung cap ngay cho tuan trc, t o co the d tr cho cac tuan sau.
Chung ta co luy ke nhu cau cua cac thi ky (tuan le) ket hp c the hien trong
bang sau :
Ky thuat can oi theo tng bo phan thi gian

Cac thi Luy ke Luy ke chi ph Tong
Ch Ctt
ky (tuan) nhu cau ton tr theo chi ph
ket hp rong thi ky TC ()
1 400 0 x 100 = 0 100.00 0 100.00
0 0
1,2 1.600 1.200 x 100 x 100.00 120.0 220.00
1tuan = 0 00 0
120.000
1,2,3 2.400 (1.200 x100 x 100.00 280.0 380.00
1)+(800 x 100 x 0 00 0
2) = 280.000
3 800 0 x 100 = 0 100.00 0 100.00
0 0
3,4 1.160 (360 x 100 x 100.00 36.00 136.00
1)x1tuan = 0 0 0
36.000
3,4,5 1.660 (360 x 100 x 100.00 136.0 236.00
1)+(500 x 100 x 0 00 0
2)=136.000
6 1.000 0 x100 = 0 100.00 0 100.00
0 0
Qua s ket hp vi cac thi ky vi nhau ta thay rang :

. Vi san lng n hang la 1.600 n v e cung cap cho 2 tuan : 1 va 2 la san
lng n hang toi u, v vi san lng n hang 1.600 n v, ta co Ctt Ch nhat.
. Tng t vi san lng n hang la : 1.660 n v e cung cap cho cac tuan : 3,
4, 5 la san lng n hang toi u, v vi san lng n hang nay ma tai o ta co Ch
Ctt
Bang phng phap phan tch tren ta thay : Trong mot nh ky 6 tuan chung ta se
tien hanh thc hien 3 n hang, o la :
- n hang 1 : 1.600 n v, cung cap cho cac tuan 1 va 2
- n hang 2 : 1.660 n v, cung cap cho cac tuan : 3, 4 va 5
- n hang 3 : 1.000 n v, cung cap cho 1 tuan th 6
Theo ket qua can oi cua bang tren, ta lap bang cung cap nh sau :
nh kch thc lo hang ap dung ky thuat can oi theo
tng bo phan thi gian
Tuan th 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Tong nhu 400 1.20 800 360 500 1.00
cau 0 0
Lng ton
1.20 0 860 500 0 0
kho san
0
co
Lng
1.60 1.66 1.00
hang a
0 0 0
en
Nh vay ta co tong chi ph ve hang ton kho trong nh ky nay la :
. Chi ph at hang :
Ch = 3 lan x 100.000 = 300.000
. Chi ph ton tr :
Ctt = 120.000 + 136.000 + 0 = 256.000
Do o : Tong chi ph ve hang ton kho
TC3 = 300.000 + 256.000 = 556.000
Qua 3 mo hnh ta thay : Tong chi ph ve hang ton kho la TC3 < TC1 < TC2
T o mo hnh can oi theo tng bo phan thi gian cho chung ta mot tong chi ph
la nho nhat, nen mot phng dien nao o no c coi la phng an tot nhat trong
3 mo hnh.
CHNG VII :
HOACH NH LCH TRNH SAN XUAT
tren chung ta a nghien cu qua phng phap hoach nh chien lc tong hp

va hoach nh nhu cau cung ng vat t (lap tien o san xuat). Ca hai phng phap
nay eu la cong viec xay dng ke hoach, tuy nhien no ch cho ta mot hnh anh ve
ke hoach toan bo, ch khong e cap en van e lam sao ieu o cho c ke
hoach hang ngay mot cach t m.
Vi ly do tren, chng hoach nh lch trnh san xuat hay con goi la ieu o
tac nghiep, Ke hoach san xuat hang ngay se e cap en viec ieu o e thc
hien cac cong viec thuoc ke hoach ngan han.
I. NHNG NGUYEN TAC SAP XEP TH T CAC CONG VIEC

TREN MOT PHNG TIEN (MOT MAY HOAC MOT DAY
CHUYEN) :
Xep th t la quy nh th t cong viec nao c lam trc, cong viec nao c
lam sau tren moi may, chang han : Co 10 benh nhan a vao benh vien, th nen
xep ngi nao c cha trc, ngi en trc c cha trc hay ngi benh
nguy cap c cha trc.
Xep th t cong viec tren mot may la mot bai toan n gian. Co N cong viec gia
cong tren mot may. Moi cong viec co 1 thi gian gia cong (san xuat) va mot thi
han hoan thanh theo yeu cau c quy nh trc. Van e at ra la phai bo tr lam
sao cho N cong viec nay c lam noi tiep nhau e cho ta at c ket qua toi u.
Co ngha la cac cong viec nay can c sap xep thanh mot lch trnh chat che va
khoa hoc, ac biet la khi co nhieu cong viec chong cheo trong nhng thi ky cao
iem.
Muon sap xep toi u cac cong viec tren mot may ta phai da vao 4 nguyen tac
u tien sau ay :
1. Cong viec at hang trc, bo tr lam trc (First come, first served - FCFS)
2. Cong viec co thi han giao hang sm nhat, bo tr lam trc (Earliest/Due Date
- EDD)
3. Cong viec co thi gian thc hien ngan nhat, bo tr lam trc (Shortest
Processing Time - SPT)
4. Cong viec co thi gian thc hien dai nhat, bo tr lam trc (Longest
Processing Time - LPT)
V du di ay se cho ta so sanh cac nguyen tac va neu :
V du : Mot x nghiep c kh co nhan 5 hp ong cat ton cho ben ngoai. Thi
gian gia cong (san xuat) va thi han hoan thanh c cho trong bang sau :
Thi gian gia Thi han hoan

Cong viec
cong (ngay) thanh (ngay
th...)
A 6 8
B 2 6
C 8 18
D 3 15
E 9 23
Hay xac nh th t cac cong viec c gia cong theo cac nguyen tac : FCFS,
EDD, SPT & LPT
e so sanh cac nguyen tac tren, ta can tnh cac ch tieu hieu qua sau :
Ta co :
Tong dong thi gian = thi gian san xuat + thi gian ch
Cac ch tieu hieu qua c tnh theo cong thc :
1. Thi gian bnh quan e thc hien (hoan tat) cong viec = Tong dong thi gian/So
cong viec
2. So cong viec bnh quan ch i (nam) trong he thong = Tong dong thi
gian/Tong thi gian san xuat.
3. So ngay tre han bnh quan (Tnh cho mot cong viec) =
Tong so ngay tre han/ so cong viec.
1. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac FCFS :
Vi nguyen tac nay, ta xep cac cong viec theo tuan t A - B - C - D - E.
. Do cong viec A phai lam mat 6 ngay, xong A mi gia cong B. Vay B phai ch
mat 6 ngay. Thi gian thc hien B mat 2 ngay. Do o, thi iem hoan thanh cong
viec B la :
6 ngay ch + 2 ngay gia cong = ngay th 8
. V thi han hoan thanh theo yeu cau oi vi B la ngay th 6, nen cong viec a
tre mat : 8 - 6 = 2 ngay.
Theo cach tnh tren vi cac cong viec con lai C, D, E ta lap c bang sau ay :
Th t Thi han Thi iem
Thi Thi
cong hoan thanh hoan thanh
gian gian
viec theo yeu (dong thi
gia cham tre
cau gian)
cong
A 6 8 6 0
B 2 6 8 2
C 8 18 16 0
D 3 15 19 4
E 9 23 28 5
Tong
28 77 11
cong
Vi cac so lieu trong bang, ta tnh c cac ch tieu hieu qua nh sau :
- Thi gian bnh quan e hoan thanh cong viec = 77/5 = 15,4 ngay
- So cong viec bnh quan ch i trong he thong = 77/28 = 2,75 cong viec.
- So ngay tre han bnh quan = 11/5 = 2,2 ngay
2. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac EDD :

a vao cong viec nao co thi han giao hang sm nhat xep len au, ta co th t
gia cong la B - A - D - C - E :
Thu t Thi gian Thi gian Thi iem Thi gian
cong gia cong hoan thanh hoan thanh cham tre
viec theo yeu cau (dong thi
gian)
B 2 6 2 0
A 6 8 8 0
D 3 15 11 0
C 8 18 19 1
E 9 23 28 5
Tong
28 68 6
cong
Cac ch tieu hieu qua c tnh :
- Thi gian bnh quan e hoan tat cong viec = 68/5 = 13,6 ngay
- So cong viec bnh quan ch i trong he thong = 68/28 = 2,42 cong viec
3. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac SPT :

Th t sap xep cac cong viec da vao thi gian gia cong, cong viec nao co thi
gian thc hien ngan nhat c u tien lam trc, ta co th t gia cong la :
B-D-A-C-E
Th t Thi Thi han Thi iem Thi

cong gian hoan thanh hoan thanh gian
viec gia theo yeu (dong thi cham tre
cong cau gian)
B 2 6 2 0
D 3 15 5 0
A 6 8 11 3
C 8 18 19 1
E 9 23 28 5
Tong
28 65 9
cong
Cac ch tren hieu qua c tnh nh sau :
- Thi gian bnh quan e hoan tat cong viec = 65/5 = 13 ngay
- So ngay tre han bnh quan = 9/5 = 1,8 ngay.
4. Xep th t cac cong viec theo nguyen tac LPT :
Theo nguyen tac nay, ta chon cac cong viec co thi gian thc hien gia cong dai
nhat bo tr lam trc, th t gia cong cac cong viec se la : E - C - A - D - B :
Th t Thi Thi han Thi iem Thi

cong gian hoan thanh hoan thanh gian
viec gia theo yeu (dong thi cham tre
cong cau gian)
E 9 23 9 0
C 8 18 17 0
A 6 8 23 15
D 3 15 26 11
B 2 6 28 22
Tong 28 103 48
cong
Cac ch tieu hieu qua c tnh nh sau :
- Thi gian bnh quan e hoan tat cong viec = 103/5=20,6 ngay
Di ay la bang tom tat cac ch tieu hieu qua cua 4 nguyen tac tren :
Nguyen Thi gian So cong viec So ngay tre

tac bnh quan e bnh quan ch han bnh
hoan tat cong i trong he quan
viec (ngay) thong
1. FCFS 15,4 2,75 2,2
2. EDD 13,6 2,42 1,2
3. SPT 13 2,32 1,8
4. LPT 20,6 3,68 9,6
Qua bang tom tat ta nhan thay :
- Nguyen tac LPT co cac ch tieu hieu qua kem nhat.
- Nguyen tac SPT co 2 ch tieu au vt troi, tc thi gian bnh quan e hoan tat
cong viec = 13 ngay min va so cong viec bnh quan ch i trong he thong = 2,32
la min.
- Nguyen tac EDD co ch tieu th 3 vt troi hn ca la min. Nh vay trong 4
nguyen tac th nguyen tac SPT co li hn ca. Kinh nghiem thc te cho thay :
1. Nguyen tac theo thi gian thc hien ngan nhat SPT c coi la ky thuat tot
nhat e giam thieu dong thi gian va giam thieu so cong viec bnh quan ch i
trong he thong. Tuy nhien, mat han che cua nguyen tac nay la ay nhng cong viec
co thi gian thc hien dai xuong di, ieu nay de lam cho cac khach hang quan
trong phat y, dan en viec co the gay ra nhng thay oi, bien ong oi vi cac
cong viec dai han, tuy vay nguyen tac nay thng c dung nhieu nhat.
2. Nguyen tac at hang trc, bo tr lam trc FCFS tuy co cac ch tieu hieu qua
khong cao, nhng khong v vay ma coi no la nguyen tac kem nhat. Bi v u iem
cua no la lam hai long cac khach hang, the hien tnh cong bang, ay la yeu to het
sc quan trong trong cac he thong dch vu.
3. Nguyen tac co cong viec thi gian thc hien dai nhat LPT thng t khi c
s dung, no thng c ap dung khi :
- Cac hp ong cha chac chan.
- Khi cac cong viec co thi gian thc hien xap x bang nhau.
5. Nguyen tac anh gia mc o bo tr hp ly cac cong viec va th t

u tien trong ieu o san xuat (ty so thi han - Critical Ratio - CR) ;
Ngc lai vi cac nguyen tac u tien, nguyen tac nay mang tnh ong co the
c cap nhat thng xuyen va rat can cho viec lap bang th t u tien, trong ieu
o san xuat.
Nh vao ty so ti han ta co the biet c viec nao can xep u tien e co the
giao hang ung tien o.
- Mot cong viec co ty so ti han thap (nho hn 1), co ngha la cong viec o se b
cham, nen can xep u tien e tap trung ch ao.
- Cong viec co ty so ti han bang 1; chng to se hoan thanh ung thi han.
- Cong viec co ty so ti han > 1 , chng to se hoan thanh sm hn ky han va co
thi gian nhan roi.
Ty so ti han hay mc o hp ly c tnh nh sau :
MHL (CR) = Thi gian con lai/Thi gian san xuat con lai can cho cong viec
Hay MHL (CR) = (Thi han giao hang - Thi iem hien tai)/Thi gian san
xuat con lai can cho cong viec.
V du : Hom nay la ngay th 22/8 tren bang ieu o cua cong ty che bien hang
ong lanh co 3 cong viec c at hang nh sau :
So ngay san xuat
Cong viec Thi han giao hang
con lai can cho
cong viec
A 29/8 5
B 28/8 6
C 26/8 7
Ap dung cong thc tren, ta tnh c ty so ti han (CR) hay MHL va xep th
t u tien trong bang sau :
Cong viec Ty so ti han (MHL) Th t u tien

A (29-22)/5=7/5=1,4 3
B (28-22)/6=6/6=1 2
C (26-22)/7=4/7=0,57 1
* Nguyen tac ty so ti han hay mc o bo tr hp ly cac cong viec c s dung
nhieu trong he thong ieu o san xuat e :
1. Xac nh v tr cua mot cong viec ac biet nao o.
2. Lap quan he u tien gia cac cong viec vi nhau.
3. Lap quan he gia cac cong viec lam e d tr va cac cong viec phai thc
hien theo n at hang.
4. T ong ieu chnh mc o u tien (va xet lai bang ieu o) e thay oi theo
yeu cau da tren s tien trien cua cac cong viec.
5. Nang ong theo doi mot cach chat che s tien trien va v tr cua cac cong
viec.
II. NGUYEN TAC JOHNSON :

Nguyen tac nay dung e sap xep th t cac cong viec tren nhieu may (2, 3 hay
M may)
1. Bo tr N cong viec tren 2 may :
ieu o cong viec lam tren 2 may se khong n gian nh mot may, ma tuy theo
cach ieu o chung ta se ket thuc cong viec cac thi iem khac nhau.
Do 2 may co chc nang khac nhau nen co hai giai oan lien ket nhau theo trnh
t : Cong viec nao cung phai c lam tren may 1 trc roi mi chuyen sang may
2.
Muc tieu bo tr cac cong viec la lam sao e tong thi gian thc hien cac cong
viec o la be nhat. Nhng v thi gian thc hien moi cong viec tren moi may la co
nh (do khoi lng cong viec va cong suat cua may quyet nh). Nen e co c
tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec min, ta phai bo tr cac cong viec sao cho
tong thi gian ngng viec tren cac may la be nhat.
Thc hien nguyen tac Johnson can tuan theo cac bc sau :
Bc 1 : Chon sap xep cac cong viec theo th t co thi gian thc hien min tang
dan.
Bc 2 : Ap dung nguyen tac Johnson.
Theo th t a xep bc 1, ta lan lt bo tr nh sau :
- Cong viec nao co thi gian thc hien min may 1 (cot so 1) th bo tr ben trai
( au)
- Cong viec nao co thi gian thc hien min may 2 (cot so 2) th bo tr ben phai
( cuoi)
Bc 3 : Khi mot cong viec a c sap xep roi th ta loai tr, ch xet nhng
cong viec con lai.
Bc 4 : Ve bieu o thi gian va tnh tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec.
V du : Co 6 cong viec c gia cong bang 2 may khoan va tien. Thi gian thc
hien gia cong cho moi cong viec tren moi may c cho trong bang di ay.
Hay sap xep th t cac cong viec e tong thi gian thc hien la min ?
Cong Thi gian thc hien cac cong viec (gi)

viec
1- May khoan 2 - May tien
A 6 12
B 3 7
C 18 9
D 15 14
E 16 8
F 10 15
Giai :
Bc 1 : Chon va sap xep cac cong viec theo th t co thi gian min tang dan;
ta c bang sau :
Cong viec Thi gian thc hien cac cong viec (gi)
1- May khoan 2 - May tien
B 3 7
A 6 12
E 16 8
C 18 9
F 10 15
D 15 14
Bc 2 : Sap xep cac cong viec theo nguyen tac Johnson ta co :
Cong viec B A F D C E
may
May I 3 6 10 15 18 16
May II 7 12 15 14 9 8
Bc 3 : Ve bieu o thi gian cho cac cong viec

0 3 9 19 34 52 68
May I B=3 A= F=10 D=15 C=18 E=16
May II 6
B=7 A=12 F=15 D=14 C=9 E=
8
0 3 10 22 37 5152 61 68 76
Thi gian
Nhn vao bieu o thi gian ta thay :

- Tong thi gian thc hien tat ca cac cong viec tren 2 may = 76 gi la min.
- May II c huy ong sau may I la 3 gi.
- May I c giai phong sau 68 gi.
- May II c giai phong sau 76 gi.
- May II sau cong viec D phai ch mat 1 gi.
2. Bo tr N cong viec tren 3 may :
Dung phng phap gan ung e bien bai toan 3 may thanh 2 may (tc bien ma
tran 3 cot thanh ma tran 2 cot).
Bc 1 : Xet xem bai toan co thoa man nguyen tan Johnson hay khong. Tc ch
can thoa mot trong hai ieu kien sau :
. Thi gian ngan nhat tren may 1 phai ln hn hoac bang thi gian dai nhat tren
may 2 (t1min t2max)
. Thi gian ngan nhat tren may 3 phai ln hn hoac bang thi gian dai nhat tren
may 2 (t3min t2max)
Bc 2 : Lap ma tran mi bang cach : (t1 + t2) va (t2 + t3)
Bc 3 : Chon va sap xep cac cong viec co thi gian thc hien min tang dan.
Bc 4 : Ap dung nguyen tac Johnson, sap xep cac cong viec nh bc 2 bai
toan 2 may.
Bc 5 : Ve bieu o thi gian va tnh tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec.
Cong viec Thi gian thc hien cac cong viec (gi)
May 1 (t1) May 2 (t2) May 3 (t3)
A 13 5 9
B 5 3 7
C 6 4 5
D 7 2 6
Bc 1 : Ta xem bai toan co thoa man nguyen tac Johnson hay khong ?
t1min t2max
t3min t2max
Ta co : t1min = 5 t3min = 5
t1min = t2max ; t2max = 5 t3min = t2max
t2max = 5
Nh vay bai toan a thoa ca 2 ieu kien (ch can thoa mot trong hai ieu kien la
u)
Bc 2 : Lap ma tran mi bang cach t1 + t2 & t2 + t3
Cong viec t1 + t2 t2 + t3
A 18 14
B 8 10
C 10 9
D 9 8
Bc 3 : Chon va sap xep cac cong viec co thi gian gia cong min tang dan :
Cong viec t1 + t2 t2 + t3
B 8 10
D 9 8
C 10 9
A 18 14
Bc 4 : Ap dung nguyen tac Johnson, sap xep th t cac cong viec
Cong viec
B A C D
May
May I 5 13 6 7
May II 3 5 4 2
May III 7 9 5 6
Bc 5 : Ve bieu o thi gian
5 18 24 31
May B = 5 A = 13 C=6 D=7
I
May B=3 A=5 C=4 D
II 2
May B=7 A=9 C=5 D=6
III
8 15 23 32 37 43
Qua bieu o thi gian ta thay :
- Tong thi gian thc hien tren 3 may = 43 gi la min.
- May I c giai phong sau 31 gi
- May II c giai phong sau 30 gi
- May III c giai phong sau 43 gi
III. PHNG PHAP HUNGGARI (Honig) :

ay la phng phap do nha toan hoc ngi Hunggari la D.Honig ngh ra. Bai
toan giai c da vao 2 ac tnh sau :
- Co the cong hay tr bat ky mot hang so nao vao mot cot hay mot hang cua ma
tran chi ph phan viec ma khong lam thay oi tnh toi u cua no.
Trong trng hp ta co :
- N cong viec va N may
- Moi cong viec ch c bo tr tren 1 may
- Moi may ch phu trach mot cong viec
Do o yeu cau cua bai toan la bo tr moi cong viec tren moi may sao cho tong
chi ph thc hien cac cong viec tren tat ca cac may la nho nhat.
ay la dang bai toan cua quy hoach tuyen tnh, vi ten goi la bai toan chon.
Co the ap dung bai toan nay e :
- Phan cong cong viec tren cac may
- Phan cong cong viec cho cac nhan vien
Sao cho tong chi ph hay tong thi gian la min.
Thuat toan c tuan theo cac bc sau :
1. Bai toan 1 muc tieu :
Bc 1 : oi vi moi hang, chon mot so min, lay cac so trong hang tr i so min
o. (ta se c 1 ma tran mi co cung mot ap so nh ma tran ban au, tng ng
vi ac tnh th nhat).
Bc 2 : oi vi moi cot, chon mot so min, lay cac so trong cot tr i so min o.
Bc 3 : Xem xet tng hang mot cua ma tran, chon hang nao co ung mot so 0
th khoanh tron so 0 o roi ke mot ng thang xuyen suot cot cha so 0 o.
Trng hp trong hang khong co so 0 hoac co t 2 so 0 tr len th ta khong khoanh
tron ma bo qua hang o.
- Xet tng cot mot cua ma tran, neu cot nao co 1 so 0 duy nhat th khoanh tron
so o, roi ke mot ng thang xuyen suot hang cha so 0 o. Trng hp ieu kien
khong c thoa man th ta bo qua cot o.
Bc 3 c lap lai cho ti khi khong con co the khoanh tron con so 0 nao na
va luc nay so so 0 c khoanh tron bang vi so ap an can tm. Nh vay bai toan
a c giai xong.
Neu so so 0 c khoanh tron cha bang so ap an can tm th ta phai chuyen
tiep qua bc 4.
Bc 4 : Tao them so 0
So 0 c tao them bang cach :
- Chon trong cac so cha nam tren cac ng thang mot so min, lay cac so
khong nam tren cac ng thang tr i so min o.
- Lay so min o cong vao cac so nam tren giao iem cua cac ng thang.
- Sau o ta bo tr cong viec lai nh bc 3, va c tiep tuc nh vay cho ti khi
so so 0 khoanh tron bang so ap an can tm, luc nay bai toan mi c giai xong.
Nh vay cac cong viec se c bo tr vao cac o co so 0 c khoanh tron va
chung ta se co tong thi gian thc hien hay tong chi ph thc hien cac cong viec la
nho nhat.
V du : Mot trung tam ien toan co 4 lap trnh vien la Anh, Dung, Hung, Cng.
Ca 4 ngi eu co the viet c bat ky mot trong bon trnh 1, 2, 3 va 4. Tuy nhien
do kha nang moi ngi oi vi tng chng trnh co mc o khac nhau, v vay thi
gian dung e lap trnh oi vi tng ngi mot co khac nhau ve thi gian (gi) c
cho trong bang.
Yeu cau : Hay phan cong cho moi lap trnh vien nhan lap 1 chng trnh sao cho
tong thi gian lap cac chng trnh la nho nhat.
n v tnh : gi
Lap trnh Chng trnh
vien 1 2 3 4
Anh 80 120 125 140
Dung 20 115 145 60
Hung 40 100 85 45
Cng 65 35 25 75
Vi v du nay ta co tat ca 4 ! = 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 = 24 cach giao viec. Nhn chung oi
vi bai toan n x n th co n ! cach phan viec. Trng hp bai toan co t so lieu th ta
co the liet ke ra het cac giai phap roi chon cach nao co tong thi gian thc hien
hay tong chi ph nho nhat. o la cach giai cua bai toan phan viec. Tuy nhien vi
bai toan co nhieu so lieu (n!) th viec liet ke e tm giai phap la het sc ton kem
thi gian va kho thc hien. Do o oi vi loai bai toan nay ta nen ap dung phng
phap Hunggari vi cac thuat toan a neu tren.
Bc 1 : Lan lt tng hang mot, chon 1 so min, lay cac so trong hang tr i so
min o, ta c ma tran mi :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 40 45 60
Dung 0 95 125 40
Hung 0 60 45 5
Cng 40 10 0 50
Bc 2 : Ta tien hanh nh bc 1, nhng thay v chon so min hang th ta chon
cho tng cot va lay cac so trong cot tr so min o :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 30 45 55
Dung 0 85 125 35
Hung 0 50 45 0
Cng 40 0 0 45
Bc 3 : - Chon hang nao co so 0 duy nhat khoanh tron lai, ke ng thang
xuyen suot cot.
- Chon cot nao co so 0 duy nhat khoanh tron lai, ke ng thang xuyen
suot hang, ta c
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 30 45 55
Dung 0 85 125 35
Hung 0 50 45 0
Cng 40 0 0 45
Nh vay sau khi thc hien xong bc 3 ta mi co 3 so 0 c khoanh tron, cha

bang so ap an can tm (so ap an ay la 4), nen ta phai lam tiep bc 4.
Bc 4 : Nhan thay con so min = 30 khong nam tren cac ng thang b gach,
nen ta lay cac con so cha b gach (khong nam tren ng thang) tr i so min
nay. ong thi lay so min nay cong vi cac so nam tren giao iem cua cac ng
thang. Thc hien bc 4 nham tao them so 0, do o sau khi bo tr lai nh bc 3 ta
co :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 0 15 55
Dung 0 55 95 35
Hung 0 20 15 0
Cng 70 0 0 75
Nhn vao bang ta thay bai toan phan viec nay co ap so la 4 va so so 0 c
khoanh tron cung bang 4. Nh vay bai toan a c giai xong.
Ket qua ta phan cong nh sau :
- Anh nhan lap chng trnh 2, vi thi gian thc hien :
120 gi
- Dung nhan lap chng trnh 1 vi thi gian thc hien :
20 gi
- Hung nhan lap chng trnh 4, vi thi gian thc hien :
45 gi
- Cng nhan lap chng trnh 3, vi thi gian thc hien : 25 gi
Vay tong thi gian lap cac chng trnh se la :
120 + 20 + 45 + 25 = 210 gi la min
2. Bai toan 2 muc tieu :
1. Muc tieu 1 : Tong chi ph hay tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec la
min. Neu e thc hien muc tieu nay, ta tien hanh giai bai toan nh bai toan 1 muc
tieu a trnh bay.
2. Muc tieu 2 : Chi ph thc hien tng cong viec hay thi gian thc hien tng
cong viec khong c vt qua mot mc nao o.
e lam ieu nay, chung ta ch can loai bo cac so hang bang hoac vt qua mc
a quy nh nao o, thay vao so hang b loai bo la mot dau cheo (x) roi tien hanh
giai bnh thng theo cac bc a trnh bay cua bai toan 1 muc tieu.
V du : Ta dung lai v du tren ve phan viec cho cac lap trnh vien trc ay. Hay
sap xep cac nhan vien am nhan cac chng trnh e at 2 muc tieu.
- Tong thi gian thc hien viec lap cac chng trnh la min.
- Thi gian thc hien 1 chng trnh < 120 gi.
Nh vay, t bang ma tran ban au ta ch viec loai bo cac so hang 120 gi, thay
vao o la 1 dau (x), sau o giai bnh thng nh bai toan 1 muc tieu, ta co :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 80 x x x
Dung 20 115 x 60
Hung 40 100 85 45
Cng 65 35 25 75
ac trng cua dau cheo la cac cong viec khong c lam

Bc 1 : Chon moi hang 1 so min, lay cac so trong hang tr i so min o :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 x x x
Dung 0 95 x 40
Hung 0 60 45 5
Cng 40 10 0 50
Bc 2 : Chon moi cot mot so min, lay cac so trong cot tr i so min o :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 x x x
Dung 0 85 x 35
Hung 0 50 45 0
Cng 40 0 0 45
Bc 3 : Khoanh tron e bo tr cong viec vao cac o so 0 duy nhat cua tng hang
va tng cot.
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 x x x
Dung 0 85 x 35
Hung 0 50 45 0
Cng 40 0 0 45
V so 0 khoanh tron cha bang so ap an nen ta tiep tuc thc hien bc 4 :

Bc 4 : Tao them so 0 :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 x x x
Dung 0 40 x 35
Hung 0 5 0 0
Cng 85 0 0 90
Quay tr lai thc hien nh bc 3 ta c :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 x x x
Dung 0 40 x 35
Hung 0 5 0 0
Cng 85 0 0 90
So ap an can tm van cha bang so 0 khoanh tron nen ta phai thc hien tiep
bc 4 e tao them so 0 va quay tr lai thc hien bc 3; ta co :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 0 x x x
Dung 0 5 x 0
Hung 35 5 0 0
Cng 120 0 0 90
Nhn vao bang ta thay so so 0 c khoanh tron a bang vi so ap an. Nh vay
bai toan a c giai xong.
Ta c ket qua phan viec nh sau :
- Chng trnh 1 phan cho Anh, thc hien 80 gi < 120 gi
- Chng trnh 4 phan cho Dung, thc hien 60 gi < 120 gi
- Chng trnh 3 phan cho Hung, thc hien 85 gi < 120 gi
- Chng trnh 2 phan cho Cng, thc hien 35 gi < 120 gi.
Vay tong thi gian thc hien cac chng trnh bang 260 gi la min va tat ca cac
cong viec c thc hien eu < 120 gi.
. Lu y :
- Neu la bai toan nay giai vi yeu cau ch at 1 muc tieu th tong thi gian thc
hien nho nhat la 210 gi.
- Vi 2 muc tieu cung luc th tong thi gian thc hien min la 260 gi.
Qua hai v du tren ta thay iem ong t 120 gi (VD 1) nay giam xuong con
85 gi.
Bay gi chung ta tiep tuc th xem co the giam iem ong xuong them c
na hay khong. Tien hanh bang cach th loai tr tat ca cac so hang co thi gian
thc hien 85 gi.
Nh vay, bang ban au luc nay tr thanh :
Chng trnh
1 2 3 4
Lap trnh vien
Anh 80 x x x
Dung 20 x x 60
Hung 40 x x 45
Cng 65 35 25 75
Ro rang : en ay th bai toan khong the giai c (do cac cot 2 va 3 ch con lai
mot so hang). Nh vat oi vi iem ong bang va di 85 gi se khong co ap
so, va v the ma phng an a giai tren la phng an cho ta ap so toi u.
CHNG VIII :
LA CHON V TR CUA DOANH NGHIEP
Quyet nh ve la chon v tr, a iem cua doanh nghiep la mot loai quyet nh
mang tnh chien lc. No co anh hng ln ti chi ph bien oi va chi ph co nh
cua san pham hay dch vu cua doanh nghiep. La chon c mot v tr tot co the ha
gia thanh san pham xuong 10%. Ngc lai khi a iem khong tot, khong thuan li
tat nhien se gay nen nhng bat li t ban au va co the keo dai nhieu nam, rat kho
khac phuc.
Vi ly do tren, khi chon v tr cua doanh nghiep can phai tien hanh can than, co
tam nhn xa trong rong, xem xet mot cach toan dien, phai tnh en kha nang phat
trien m rong sau nay cua doanh nghiep. So phng an a ra la chon xem xet t
nhat phai la hai e tnh toan so sanh ve kinh te ky thuat.
Khi tien hanh la chon v tr, a iem cua doanh nghiep, chung ta can phai co
s ong tnh nhat tr cua cac c quan quy hoach va chnh quyen a phng.
I. CAC NHAN TO ANH HNG EN VIEC LA CHON A

IEM.
1. Cac ieu kien t nhien :
Bao gom a hnh, a chat, kh tng, thuy van, tai nguyen va moi trng sinh
thai. Cac ieu kien nay c coi la yeu to au tien anh hng en viec xay dng
cac cong trnh, en viec am bao cho cac doanh nghiep co the hoat ong bnh
thng trong suot nhng nam thi han au t hay khong va giup cho viec khong
gay anh hng xau en moi trng sinh thai.
2. Cac ieu kien xa hoi :
Khi tien hanh la chon v tr cua doanh nghiep, ta can ac biet quan tam ti :
- Quy mo dan c, phong tuc tap quan cac chnh sach phat trien kinh te a
phng, nguon lao ong.
- Trnh o dan tr ve van hoa - khoa hoc ky thuat
- Cau truc c s ha tang trong vung nh : ien, nc, giao thong, thong tin lien
lac...
Ngoai cac van e tren, ta cung can phai tranh thu s ong tnh ung ho cua dan
c va chnh quyen a phng trong vung, ay la mot yeu to khong the thieu giup
cho doanh nghiep suot trong qua trnh hoat ong kinh doanh va phat trien.
3. Cac ieu kien kinh te :

Noi en cac ieu kien kinh te tac ong en viec la chon v tr cua doanh
nghiep, ta phai ke en cac ieu kien sau.
- Gan th trng tieu thu : c coi la nhan to quan trong hang au oi vi hau
het cac doanh nghiep, ac biet la oi vi cac loai doanh nghiep co hoat ong kinh
doanh dch vu nh : nha hang, khach san, benh vien,... hoac cac doanh nghiep san
xuat cac mat hang kho van chuyen nh nhng mat hang de v, de h, ong lanh,
hoa ti, cay canh v.v... va nhat la cac doanh nghiep co san pham tang trong trong
qua trnh san xuat nh : ru, bia, nc giai khat.
- Gan nguon cung cap nguyen lieu :
Thong thng cac loai doanh nghiep sau ay khi la chon a iem th nen at
gan cac nguon cung cap nguyen lieu nh :
. Cac doanh nghiep co san pham giam trong trong qua trnh san xuat nh : Che
bien go, giay, xi mang, luyen kim.
. Cac doanh nghiep s dung nguyen lieu tai cho nh cac mo, khai thac a, cat,
lam gach ngoi...
. Cac doanh nghiep s dung nguyen lieu ti song nh : Che bien lng thc,
thc pham, dau tam t...
- Nhan to van chuyen :
ay la nhan to khong the khong xet en khi la chon a iem cua doanh
nghiep, nhat la trong tnh hnh giao thong van tai thieu va yeu hien nay cua nc
ta.
Nhan to nay lai cang co anh hng ac biet ti cac doanh nghiep san xuat kinh
doanh cac mat hang co khoi lng ln, cong kenh hay kho bao quan trong qua trnh
van chuyen.
Khi xem xet nhan to nay can quan tam en 2 mat : chuyen ch nguyen vat lieu
t nguon cung cap ti x nghiep va t x nghiep ti th trng tieu thu.
- Gan nguon cung cap lao ong :
Khi gan nguon cung cap lao ong th gia thue lao ong tai cho se re hn. Tuy
nhien ta khong nen bo qua thai o va nang suat lao ong cua chnh ban than ngi
lao ong, v ay mi chnh la yeu to ch thc quan trong trong viec tao nguon
nhan lc cua mot doanh nghiep.
II. CAC PHNG PHAP XAC NH A IEM :

1. Phng phap cho iem co he so (Trong so)
Do trong viec la chon v tr cua doanh nghiep co kha nhieu nhan to anh hng
kho ma nh lng, nhng v tam quan trong cua chung v the ta khong the bo qua
c.
e xac nh mc o quan trong cua cac yeu to nay ta co the ap dung phng
phap nh tnh bang cach cho iem co he so, t o em ra so sanh e la chon a
iem thch hp.
Thc hien phng phap nay can tuan theo cac bc sau ay:
1. Liet ke cac nhan to anh hng en viec la chon x nghiep nh :
- Chi ph co nh; gom co : at ai, may moc, thiet b, xay dng c ban...
- Chi ph bien oi, bao gom : Tien lng cong nhan, vat t hang hoa...
- Chi ph vo hnh nh : Chnh phu, a phng, cong oan, nghiep oan, mc

song, trnh o van hoa v.v...
- Ha tang c s : ien, nc, giao thong, thong tin lien lac, giao duc v.v...
- Ty gia hoi oai
- Gan th trng tieu thu : Chu y ti viec kinh doanh san xuat cac san pham de
v, ti song, san pham tang trong.
- Gan vung cung cap nguyen lieu.
2. Phan bo he so cho tng nhan to tuy theo mc o quan trong cua no oi vi
muc tieu cua doanh nghiep.
3. Xay dng thang iem cho tng nhan to (t 1 en 10 hay t 1 en 100)
4. Tien hanh cho iem theo tng nhan to vung d nh la chon a iem.
5. Quy oi so iem theo he so bang cach : lay iem so tng nhan to nhan vi he
so cua nhan to o.
6. Tong hp so iem cua tng vung (a iem) e a ra so sanh
7. i en ket luan la la chon a iem vi so iem cao nhat. Trng hp cha
i en quyet nh c th can phai tien hanh them cac tnh toan bang phng phap
nh lng.
Nhn chung khi thc hien phng phap nay, chung ta thng gap tr ngai ln la :
Lam sao liet ke c cac nhan to anh hng va xac nh cho c he so cua
chung. Cong viec nay nhieu khi mang nang tnh chu quan, dan en ket qua la
quyet nh c a ra vi o tin cay khong cao.
V du : Lien doanh VIETSOPETRO co tru s chnh Vung Tau, hien muon
chon 1 trong 3 a iem A, B va C e at nha may loc dau. Sau khi khao sat hien
trng a la chon bang cach a ra 6 yeu to e anh gia cho iem va nh he so
oi vi tng yeu to c cho trong bang di ay.
Hoi : Vietsopetro se la chon a iem nao sau khi dung phng phap cho iem
co he so :
iem iem iem
So
Cac yeu to He cho v cho v cho v
TT
so tr A tr B tr C
1 Gan cang 5 100 80 80
2 Nguon ien san co va gia 3 80 70 100
3 ien 4 30 60 70
4 Thai o va gia nhan cong 2 10 80 60
5 Khoang cach en Vung 2 90 60 80
6 Tau 3 50 60 90
Thai o cua a phng
Kha nang cung cap thiet b
Thc hien phng phap cho iem co trong so ta tnh c tong so iem cho cac
v tr A, B va C trong bang sau :
So iem tnh iem tnh iem tnh theo

TT Cac yeu to theo he so tai theo he so tai he so tai v tr
v tr A v tr B C
1 Gan cang 5x100=500 5x80=400 5x 80=400
2 Nguon ien san co va gia ien 3x 80=240 3x70=210 3x100=300
3 Thai o va gia nhan cong 4x 30=120 4x60=240 4x 70=280
4 Khoang cach en Vung Tau 2x 10= 20 2x80=160 2x 60=120
5 Thai o cua a phng 2x 90=180 2x60=120 2x 80=160
6 Kha nang cung cap thiet b 3x 50=150 3x60=180 3x 90=270
Tong so iem 1.210 1.310 1.530
Ket luan : Lien doanh Vietsopetro se chon a iem C

2. Phng phap iem hoa von
Ve thc chat, phng phap nay ta ch xet en quan he gia chi ph va san
lng.
Do nh ph va bien ph co anh hng rat ln en viec la chon a iem cua
doanh nghiep, v vay ta s dung phng trnh xac nh iem hoa von sau ay e
la chon a iem.
y = ax + b
Trong o : . a - bien ph tnh cho 1 n v san pham (/n v san pham)
. b - nh ph tnh cho 1 nam (/nam)
. x - so san pham ban ra trong 1 nam (cai/nam)
Ngi ta quan niem x va la san lng hay cung va la cong suat d kien cua
doanh nghiep. Cong suat nay co the a c xac nh va tnh toan ra mot con so cu
the hoac co the cha hoan toan khang nh ma con dao ong trong mot khoang nao
o v do ta phan ky au t.
e sang to them, ta xet qua v du sau ay.
V du : Cong ty N d nh la chon mot a iem e xay dng mot nha may che
bien thc pham. 3 a iem c a ra so sanh la A, B va C. Qua khao sat, tnh
toan, cong ty N co c so lieu trong bang di ay; vay cong ty N nen chon a
iem nao ?
n v tnh USD
Bien ph mot n
a iem Chi ph co nh
v san pham
A 30.000 75
B 60.000 45
C 110.000 25
Ta xet 2 trng hp :
* Trng hp 1 : Khi cong suat a c xac nh : Gia s cong suat a xac nh

la 1.500 san pham/nam.
. Vung A, Ta co : TCA = 30.000 + 75 x 1.500 = 142.500 USD
. Vung B, ta co : TCB = 60.000 + 45 x 1.500 = 127.500 USD
. Vung C, Ta co : TCC = 110.000 + 25 x 1.500 = 147.500 USD
Nh vay a iem B cho ta tong chi ph nho nhat, v the trong trng hp nay
nha may nen at tai a iem B.
* Trng hp 2 : Khi cong suat cha hoan toan khang nh:
Ta co : yA = 75x + 30.000
yB = 45x + 60.000
yC = 25x + 110.00
3 phng trnh tren c bieu dien bang o th nh sau :
Chi ph B
A
(1.000USD)
C
150
110
60
Vung A
30 thch hp Vung B thch hp Vung C thch hp
1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 Cong suat

San lng
Nhn vao bieu o ta thay : Cong ty N nen chon :

- a iem A khi san lng (cong suat) < 1.000
- a iem B khi san lng (cong suat) < 2.500
- a iem C khi san lng (cong suat) > 2.500
3. Phng phap toa o 1 chieu :

ay la phng phap co xet en tng quan van chuyen gia cac c s cu va mi
nam tren cung mot truc (toa o mot chieu)
Gia s doanh nghiep a co san mot so c s kinh doanh nam tng oi tren mot
truc nao o (chang han doc theo quoc lo). Luc nay toa o cua c s mi c xac
nh theo cong thc:
n
1
L=
W
w d
i =1
i i
Trong o :
L - Toa o c s mi (km)
wi - Lng van chuyen en c s i (i=1,2,n)
di - Toa o cua c s i (km) so vi 1 iem nao o lay lam goc toa o (chang han
so vi nha may)
W - Tong so lng van chuyen phai ch en n c s
V du : Nha may N san xuat hop so thuy 25 ML dung cho tau anh ca cung cap
cho cac tnh doc ven bien. e giam chi ph chuyen ch, nha may muon tm mot a
iem doc tren quoc lo 1A e lap kho phan phoi.
Vay nha may N nen chon a iem nao cho kinh te nhat theo so lng yeu cau
khi khoang cach cua cac a iem en nha may c cho trong bang di ay :
C s Cach nha may Lng van chuyen
hien co (i) (km) (wi)
(di)
Phan Thiet 164 210
Phan Rang 310 240
Cam Ranh 355 190
Nha Trang 414 280
Tuy Hoa 537 120
Quy Nhn 655 120
Quang Ngai 826 60
a Nang 937 220
Tong cong w=1.440
Ap dung cong thc tren ta co toa o cua c s mi la
L = (164x210 + 310x240 + 355 x 190 + 414 x 280 + ... + 937x220)/1.440=479,67 km
Vay kho phan phoi nen at trong khoang Nha trang - Tuy Hoa, nhng gan ve
pha Tuy Hoa hn.
4. Phng Phap toa o hai chieu :
Phng phap nay c s dung khi cac c s cu khong nam tren mot truc ma
phan tan nhieu ni. Giong phng phap tren, chung ta cung xet en tng quan
chuyen ch hang hoa.
Cong thc e tnh toa o cua c s mi la :
1 n 1 n
C x = dixWi; C y = diyWi
W i =1 W i =1
Trong o :
Cx - Toa o x cua c s mi
Cy - Toa o y cua c s mi
dix - Toa o x cua c s i hien co, lay theo ban o

diy - Toa o y cua c s i hien co, lay theo ban o
wi - lng van chuyen en c s i
W - Tong lng van chuyen phai ch en n c s
V du : Nha may thuoc la co kho phan phoi at toa o lay theo ban o la (59,
40). Kho nay cung cap hang cho 6 ai ly A, B, C, D, E va F. Toa o cac ai ly va
lng van chuyen c tnh trong bang sau ; Nha may muon tham tra lai xem v tr
cua kho nay hien nay co con phu hp na hay khong ?
C s hien co (i) Toa o di Lng van chuyen
(x,y) (wi)
ai ly A (58, 54) 100
ai ly B (60, 40) 400
ai ly C (22, 76) 200
ai ly D (69, 52) 300
ai ly E (39, 14) 300
ai ly F (84, 14) 100
Tong cong W = 1.400
Ap dung cong thc, ta tnh c toa o cua kho phan phoi mi la :
Cx = (58x100+60x400+22x200+69x300+39x300+ 84x100)/1.400 = 54
Cy = (54x100+40x400+76x200+52x300+14x300+14x100)/1.400 = 41
Nh vay toa o can co (54,41) nam canh v tr cua kho hien co (59,40) v the kho
hien co van tiep tuc s dung c, khong can phai di.
5. Phng phap s dung bai toan van tai :

Thc chat cua hai phng phap toa o mot chieu va hai chieu va xet tren eu
la phng phap lay trong tam, mac du co xet en lng van chuyen, nhng cha
xet en chi ph van chuyen.
Ngoai ra, tai moi a iem th nh ph va bien ph cung khac nhau. V vay ta
can xem xet van e mot cach toan dien hn, tc la co xet en chi ph san xuat cong
vi chi ph van chuyen.
Sau ay ta se dung phng phap s dung bai toan van tai (mot ac thu cua quy
hoach tuyen tnh) e giai quyet van e noi tren.
Mo hnh va thuat toan giai bai toan van tai a c trnh bay ky trong mon Quy
hoach tuyen tnh. ay ta ch iem qua nhng net chnh :
Goi : i la cac nha may (i = 1, m)
ai - cong suat (san lng) cua nha may i (T/ngay)
J - Cac ai ly (j = 1,n)
bj - Nhu cau cua ai ly j (T/ngay)
cij - Chi ph san xuat va van chuyen 1 tan hang t nha may i en ai ly j,
xij - Lng hang can san xuat va chuyen ch t nha may i en ai ly j (xij
0) (T)
Vi ai = bj; xij = ai (i = 1,m), xij = bj (j=1,n)

n n
Sao cho : Cij. xij =
i j
f min
. Trng hp : ai bj th ta phai them vao 1 hang gia hoac 1 cot gia cho can
bang. Chi ph (cij) trong cac o gia bang 0.
. Phng an ban au co the lap theo mot trong cac phng phap sau :
- Goc tay bac
- Cmin
. e kiem tra tnh toi u cua phng an, ta tien hanh bang phng phap the v :
- Ui : The v cua hang i
- Vj : The v cua cot j
. Lap trnh cac o chon theo cong thc :
ui + vj = cij (ch oi vi cac o chon, tc o co xij > 0)
Sau o ta cho mot ui hay vj bat ky nao o bang 0 roi suy ra cac ui va vj khac.
. Kiem tra cac o loai (o co xij = 0) theo cong thc :
ij = ui + vj - cij
- Neu moi ij 0, ta c phng an toi u.
- Nhng neu co, du ch mot ij > 0, th phng an cha toi u, bang cach :
Ve mot chu trnh kn bang cac ng ngang hoac ng nam doc ch re goc
cac o chon, tc la gia 1 o loai khong at (o co ij > 0) vi 1 so o chon.
Bat au t o loai khong at, ta anh dau cong (+) tiep theo anh dau (-), (+), (-
)... tren cac goc vuong.
Chon trong cac o co dau (-) mot so min (lng ieu chnh), lay so min o cong
vao cac so o co dau (+): lay cac so trong cac o co dau (-) tr i so min o.
Sau khi thc hien cac bc tren ta co phng an mi. e kiem tra phng an
mi nay xem a toi u hay cha, ta lai phai tiep tuc kiem tra ij cua cac o loai
trong phng an mi nay. Va c tiep tuc nh vay cho ti khi nao tm c phng
an toi u th thoi.
V bai toan van tai la dang bai toan luon luon co phng an toi u, do o chac
chan sau mot so hu han bc thc hien, ta se tm c phng an toi u cho gia tr
ham muc tieu la min.
V du : Cong ty N hien co hai nha may at tai Ha Noi va thanh pho Thanh Hoa
san pham chu yeu c cap cho cac ai ly nam hai tnh Mong Cai va Thanh pho
Vinh. Do nhu cau th trng ngay mot tang, cong ty quyet nh xay dng them mot
nha may th 3, d kien co the at mot trong hai thanh pho Hai Phong va Nam
nh.
Bang di ay cho biet chi ph san xuat va chi ph van chuyen t cac nha may
en cac ai ly. Hay tnh xem cong ty N quyet nh nen chon xay dng a iem
nha may Hai Phong hay Nam nh ?
Chi ph Chi ph van chuyen San lng

Nha may san en cac ai ly (Cong suat)
xuat (trieu /T) bnh
trieu Mong Cai Vinh thng
/T (T/ngay)
Hien Ha Noi 5,3 1,7 1,8 6
co Thanh 5,2 3,8 1,0 9
Hoa
D Hai 5,0 0,9 2,0 5
Phong
Kien Nam 4,8 1,8 1,2 5
nh
Nhu cau (T/ngay) 8 12 20
Giai : e giai bai toan nay, hai a iem mi can xem xet la Hai Phong va Nam
nh phai c xet cung vi hai nha may hien co trong mot the thong nhat.
Muon vay ta lap thanh hai bai toan van tai tng ng vi hai a iem ang d
kien, trong o chi ph cij cac o (i,j) la tong cua chi ph san xuat va chi ph van
chuyen.
Giai hai bai toan van tai nay ta se nhan c hai gia tr min cua ham muc tieu
(vi tong chi ph san xuat va van chuyen nho nhat).
Phng an nao co gia tr min nho hn la phng an c chon.
* Bai toan 1 : Neu chon Hai phong ta tnh c chi ph cij va phan bo theo
phng phap Cmin ta co :
ai ly Cong suat
Nha may Mong Cai Vinh (T/ngay)
va a iem
7 7,1
NM Ha Noi 3 3 6 u1
9 6,2
u2
NM Thanh Hoa 9 9
5,9 7,0 u3
Hai Phong 5 5
. Lap trnh cac o chon theo cong thc :
ui + vj = cij (ui va vj : The v cua hang i va cot j)
Ta c :
u1+ v1 = 7
u1 + v2 = 7,1
u2 + v2 = 6,2
u3 + v1 = 5,9
. Cho u1 = 0 ta tnh c cac gia tr ui va vj khac nh sau :
u1 + v1 = 7 v1 = 7
u1 + v2 = 7,1 v2 = 7,1
u2 + v2 = 6,2 u2 = 6,2 - 7,1 = -0,9
u3 + v1 = 5,9 u3 = 5,9 - 7 = -1,1
. Sau khi a tnh c cac ui va vj ta kiem tra cac o loai (xij = 0) theo cong thc :
ij = ui+vj - cij; neu
ij 0 phng an toi u
ij > 0 phng an cha toi u
phai bo tr lai
. 21 = u2 + v1 - c21 = -0,9 + 7 - 9 = -2,9 <0
. 32 = u3 + v2 - c32 = -1,1 + 7,1 - 7 = -1 < 0
Ta thay ij < 0, nen phng an la toi u
n n
Ta co tong chi ph : minf = TC1 = cij. xij
i =1 j=1
minf = TC1 = 3x7 + 3x7,1 + 9x6,2 + 5x5,9 = 127,6 trieu ong/ngay.

* Bai toan 2 : Neu chon a iem la Nam nh, giong bai toan 1 ta co :
ai ly Cong suat
va a iem
7 7,1
NM Ha Noi 6 6
9 6,2
NM Thanh Hoa 2 7 9
6,6 6
Nam nh 5 5
. Lap trnh cho cac o chon :
u1 + v 1 = 7
u2 + v 1 = 9
u2 + v2 = 6,2
u3 + v 2 = 6
. Cho u1 = 0 ta c cac ui, vj khac :
u1 + v1 = 7 v1 = 7
u2 + v1 = 9 u2 = 9-7=2
u2 + v2 = 6,2 v2 = 6,2 - 2 = 4,2
u3 + v2 = 6 u3 = 6 - 4,2 = 1,8
. Kiem tra cac o loai : Tnh ij cho cac o loai (o cha chon):
12 = u1 + v2 - c12 = 0 + 4,2 - 7,1 =- 2,9 < 0
31 = u3 + v1 - c31 = 1,8 + 7 - 6,6 = 2,2 > 0
V 31> 0 nen phng an cha toi u (bai toan suy bien). Do o ta phai chuyen
bc tnh toan tiep e tm phng an toi u.
. Xac nh khoi lng hang c bo tr vao o co ij >0 ( ay la 31). T o co ij

> 0 (o 3,1) ta ve 1 chu trnh kn bang cac ng ngang va doc va ch ve cac o
chon, lan lt anh dau bat au t o loai khong at anh dau (+), tiep theo la cac
dau (-), (+), (-), (+)... ta c bang sau, vi lng ieu chnh la 2 :
ai ly Cong suat
va a iem
7 7,1
NM Ha Noi 6 6
9 6,2
NM Thanh Hoa -2 +7 9
6,6 6
Nam nh +
-5 5

Sau khi lay cac so o co dau (-) tr i lng ieu chnh (so min trong cac o co
dau tr - la 2) va cac so o co dau (+). Cong vi lng ieu chnh ta co phng an
mi trong bang sau:
ai ly Cong suat
va a iem
7 7,1
NM Ha Noi 6 6
9 6,2
NM Thanh Hoa 9 9
6,6 6
Nam nh 2 3 5

. Ta kiem tra cac o loai e th lai phng an :
- 12 = 0 + 6,4 - 7,1 = - 0,7
- 21 = -0,2 + 7 - 9 = -2,2
Nh vay, do ij 0 nen phng an la toi u.
Ta co tong chi ph :
TC2 = minf = 6x7 + 9x6,2 + 2x6,6 + 3x6 = 129 trieu /ngay.
So sanh TC1 vi TC2 ta thay : TC1 < TC2, v vay ta nen chon a iem mi la Hai
Phong e xay Nha may. (Phng an v tr Hai phong se tiet kiem hn Nam
nh la 1,4 trieu ong/ngay, neu 1 nam lam viec 300 ngay th se tiet kiem c
420 trieu ong/nam).
CHNG IX :
BO TR MAT BANG
I. KHAI NIEM VE BO TR MAT BANG :

Trong cac doanh nghiep, viec bo tr mat bang c coi la mot chien lc co anh
hng dai lau ti hieu qua san xuat.
Bo tr mat bang chnh la viec sap xep cong nghe, thiet b co lien quan va cac
khu vc lam viec; no bao gom ca khu vc phuc vu cho khach hang cung nh khu
vc ton tr.
Cac quyet nh ve bo tr mat bang bao gom viec xac nh, la chon cach bo tr
lap at may moc, thiet b, van phong va ban lam viec, cac trung tam dch vu phuc
vu cho khach hang cung nh ng day san xuat cho cac x nghiep, nha may...
Mat bang c bo tr se xac nh dong di chuyen chnh cua ngi va vat lieu, no
tac ong ln ti hieu nang cac cong viec.
Muc tieu cua nha quan tr chnh la viec tm kiem, la chon mot phng thc bo
tr mat bang hp ly e cho hoat ong cua doanh nghiep at hieu qua va hieu nang
cao nhat.
Bo tr mat bang co hieu qua va hp ly se at c phan ln cac ch tieu sau ay:
- Giam bt s ong lam ngan can s chuyen ong cua ngi va nguyen vat
lieu
- Giam thieu chi ph van chuyen nguyen vat lieu
- Giam thieu tai nan rui ro cho con ngi
- Tang hieu nang lao ong
- Nang cao tinh than lam viec
- S dung khong gian co hieu qua.
- Co tnh linh ong cao
- De giam sat
- Tao ieu kien e tiep xuc phoi hp de dang.
Ro rang la e at c cang nhieu ch tieu tren th khi quyet nh ve bo tr mat
bang nha quan tr cang co nhieu kinh nghiem va nhieu thong tin th cang tot.
Trong cac phan tiep theo cua chng, chung ta se lam quen vi mot so phng
thc tnh toan va bo tr mat bang. Ngoai ra ngi ta con dung may ien toan vi
phan mem CRAFT (Computerized Relative Allocation of Facilities Technique) e
tnh toan trong viec bo tr mat bang.
II. CAC LOAI BO TR MAT BANG :

Co ba loai bo tr mat bang ien hnh, o la :
- Bo tr mat bang nh hng theo san pham
- Bo tr mat bang nh hng theo cong nghe (phng thc che tao)
- Bo tr mat bang theo v tr co nh

Thng th trong cung mot doanh nghiep co the dung lan lon ca hai hoac ba loai
bo tr mat bang ke tren. Trng hp mot doanh nghiep san xuat nhieu loai san
pham hay cung cap nhieu loai dch vu tren cung mot mat bang, th co the dung
phng phap bo tr mat bang hon hp.
Sau ay ta se nghien cu ky tng loai bo tr mat bang noi tren.
1. Bo tr mat bang theo v tr co nh :

Mat bang c bo tr co nh c ap dung trong nhng trng hp san pham
mong manh, de v hoac qua cong kenh, vi trong lng ln lam cho viec van
chuyen het sc kho khan. Do o mat bang co nh v tr la loai mat bang ma oi
tng che bien luon co nh mot ni, v the ma cong nhan va cong cu lao ong
phai di chuyen en tan ni e gia cong va phuc vu.
V du nh khi san xuat may ien toan c ln, o to hay may bay th ngi ta a
lao ong va thiet b en lap rap tai mot ni co nh. Ky nghe ong tau va xay dng
cong trnh cung thuoc loai nay.
Co hai thuan li c ban trong viec bo tr mat bang theo v tr co nh nay la :
- Han che ti mc toi a viec di chuyen oi tng che tao, nh o ma giam
thieu h hong oi vi san pham va chi ph van chuyen.
- Do san pham khong phai dch chuyen t phan xng nay sang phan xng
khac, nen viec phan cong lao ong c lien tuc, khong phai ao tao lai th mot
khi thay oi mot hoat ong mi.
Ben canh nhng thuan li ke tren, bo tr mat bang loai nay cung co nhng mat
han che nh sau :
- Do cung vi mot so lng cong nhan nhat nh ma lai co the lam nhieu cong
viec khac nhau, nen ta can th co ky nang va a nang, loai th nay kho tm va
hng lng cao.
- Do viec di chuyen an nhau cua th va thiet b co the lam tang cao chi ph
- o s dung thiet b thap v thiet b co the e mot vai ngay sau mi dung en.
Trong thc te chung ta thng gap nhieu to chc phi san xuat cung s dung loai
bo tr mat bang co nh v tr nay trong cong viec dch vu cua mnh chang han nh :
xe cha la, xe canh sat, xe cu thng mang ngi va thiet b en tan ni e phuc
vu, hoac la cac dch vu sa cha nha ca, sn quet voi, ke vach tren ng giao
thong v.v....
2. Bo tr mat bang theo nh hng san pham :

Cach bo tr nay thch hp vi loai cong nghe theo loat va loai cong nghe lien
tuc, tc ay la kieu bo tr c the hien qua hai loai day chuyen : Day chuyen san
xuat va day chuyen lap rap.
Day chuyen san xuat se tien hanh che tao cac chi tiet, bo phan cua san pham
chang han nh vo xe o to, cac bo phan cua tu lanh v.v.... da tren hang loat cac
thiet b khac nhau.
Day chuyen lap rap se thc hien lap rap cac chi tiet, bo phan nay lai vi nhau
qua hang loat bc (tram) cong viec.
Tuy nhien hoat ong cua ca hai loai day chuyen nay phai am bao tnh can oi,
co ngha la hoat ong hay cong viec c thc hien mot may (hay mot bc cong
viec) nao o phai can oi va phu hp vi hoat ong hay cong viec c thc hien
mot may (bc cong viec) trc va sau no.
Do cac van e cua day chuyen san xuat va day chuyen lap rap i tng t nhau,
nen ta se tap trung nghien cu vao loai day chuyen lap rap lam tieu bieu.
Trong loai day chuyen lap rap (cung nh san xuat) cac hoat ong cac khu vc
lam viec phai can oi vi nhau nham at c mot san lng a c xac nh
trc, do o nha quan tr san xuat phai xac nh trc nhng thiet b, cong cu va
phng phap lam viec can s dung cung nh thi gian can thiet e thc hien cac
nhiem vu tai cac bc cong viec tren day chuyen. Nhat la nha quan tr con phai
xac nh cho c th t u tien trong viec thc hien cac cong viec khac nhau bang
cach xay dng s o th t u tien cua cac cong viec.
Nh vay, tong so cac cong viec thc hien tren day chuyen can c chia thanh
cac khu vc lam viec sao cho cong viec c thc hien vi mot tuan t kha thi
trong mot thi gian chu ky chap nhan c.
Thi gian chu ky tren day chuyen la thi gian ln nhat can thiet e thc hien
cac cong viec tren moi khu vc lam viec (la thi gian ma 1 n v san pham lu lai
tai moi khu vc lam viec).
Neu mot khu vc lam viec co nhieu cong viec hn ni khac, th nen phan bt
cong viec cho khu vc nao khong b nh tre tren day chuyen.
e cac hoat ong cac khu vc lam viec tren day chuyen can oi vi nhau,
nham nh c mot san lng a c xac nh trc, th ta phai la chon cach
phoi hp cac cong viec c thc hien tren tng khu vc lam viec theo mot th t
u tien va co tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec tren cung mot khu vc sap s
bang nhau.
Muc tieu can at la lam the nao e giam thieu c lng lao ong can thiet
au vao cung vi thiet b can au t ma am bao c mot san lng cho trc
au ra.
Sau khi chung ta xay dng xong s o th t u tien cua cac cong viec t bang
thi gian thc hien th t u tien cac cong viec, th van e tiep theo la phai phan
cong cong viec cho tng khu vc lam viec. Qua trnh phan cong cong viec cho tng
khu vc c tien hanh qua 3 bc :
Bc 1 : Xac nh chu ky san xuat (Cycle time) theo cong thc :
Thi gian chu ky (chu ky san xuat) = Thi gian lam viec trong ngay (ca)/nhu cau
(so san pham san xuat) trong ngay.
Chu ky chnh la thi gian ma mot n v san pham lu lai moi khu vc lam viec.
Bc 2 : Xac nh so (khau) khu vc lam viec toi thieu tren day chuyen sao cho
kinh te theo cong thc :
Nmin = (Tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec)/Chu ky san xuat.
Bc 3: Bo tr cac khau (khu vc) lam viec tren day chuyen:

- Cong viec nao co thi gian thc hien bang hoac xap x vi thi gian chu ky th
bo tr rieng mot mnh no mot khu vc.
- Nhng cong viec nao co thi gian thc hien nho hn thi gian chu ky va co
lien he vi nhau ve cong nghe (la nhng cong viec lien tiep nhau, gan nhau) th
ghep vao mot khu vc lam viec sao cho tong thi gian cua cac cong viec c ghep
bang hoac xap x vi thi gian chu ky.
- Trng hp oi vi nhng cong viec co thi gian ln hn thi gian chu ky th ta
giai quyet bang hai cach :
. Phan chia cong viec o thanh cac cong viec bo phan (chia nho ra)
. Bo tr nhieu may ong thi lam cong viec o.
Bc 4 : Xac nh hieu nang cua day chuyen :
Hieu nang (E) = (Tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec)/(Thi gian chu ky x so
lng khu vc c bo tr tren
day chuyen)
. Tom lai : Bo tr mat bang nh hng theo san pham co nhng u nhc iem
sau :
* u iem :
- Giam bt oan ng van chuyen nguyen vat lieu
- Giam bt khoi lng lao ong trong qua trnh
- Giam bt tong thi gian gia cong
- n gian hoa cong viec xay dng ke hoach san xuat va he thong kiem tra.
- n gian hoa cac cong viec thc hien, co the dung th ky nang thap, ao tao
nhanh.
* Nhc iem :
- o linh hoat cua qua trnh kem, do moi lan thay oi san pham th phai sap xep
lai mat bang.
- Mc o linh hoat ve thi gian kem, do san pham khong the i nhanh hn cong
viec c thc hien cham nhat tren day chuyen, tr phi cong viec nay c thc
hien tren nhieu khu vc lam viec.
- au t ton kem, do phai dung thiet b chuyen dung va khi lap at ng day
th hai phai bu tr nhng iem yeu trong nh mc thi gian.
- Moi mot bo phan tren day chuyen eu phu thuoc lan nhau, mot may hong hay
mot cong nhan ngh viec se lam cho ca day chuyen b ngng lai.
- Cong viec thng n ieu, lam cho cac cong nhan co the de b nham chan v
s lap i lap lai vi mot cong viec n gian.
Trong thc te ngi ta ng dung kieu bo tr mat bang loai nay vao cac dch vu
khac nhau nh : Quan an t phuc vu, kham sc khoe, hien mau v.v.... Nh bo tr
theo kieu nay (day chuyen nc chay) ma khach t phai quay lui lai, ch mot so
ngi phai ch i nhng vi mot thi gian ngan ma thoi.
V du : e lap rap 1 cay an organ ien can co 9 cong viec va tong thi gian
thc hien cac cong viec se la 66 phut. Thi gian thc hien cac cong viec va th t
thc hien cac cong viec nay c cho trong bang sau. Hay phan bo cac cong viec
cho cac khu vc lam viec va tnh hieu nang cua day chuyen. Biet rang moi ngay
lam viec mot ca (1 ca lam 8h) va mc san xuat hang ngay la 40 cay an.
Cong viec Thi gian thc hien Cong viec trc
(phut) o
A 10 -
B 11 A
C 5 B
D 4 B
E 12 A
F 3 C,D
G 7 F
H 11 E
I 3 G,H
Tong 66 phut
cong
T bang tren ta xay dng s o th t u tien thc hien cac cong viec nh sau :
5
10 11 C 3 7
A B F G
4
D 3
12 11 I
E H
Qua trnh phan cong cong viec cho tng khu vc lam viec c tien hanh nh
sau :
Bc 1 : Tnh thi gian chu ky :
Thi gian chu ky = (thi gian lam viec trong ngay)/(Mc san xuat moi ngay)=(8
gi x 60 phut)/40 = 12/n v
Bc 2 : Xac nh so khu vc toi thieu tren day chuyen (Nmin)
Nmin = (Tong thi gian thc hien cac cong viec)/(Thi gian chu ky) = 66/12=5,5=
6 khu vc lam viec.
Bc 3 : Bo tr cac khau (khu vc) lam viec tren day chuyen: Tuan theo cac
nguyen tac bo tr cac khu vc lam viec c trnh bay trong bc 3 neu tren, ta
ghep thanh 6 khau (khu vc) lam viec tren day chuyen nh hnh di ay :
5 (IV)
C
(II)
10 11 3 7
A B F G
(I) 4
D 3
I
12 11 (VI)
E H
(III) (V)
Thi gian roi viec cac khu vc la : I : 2, II : 1, III : 0;

IV : 0; V : 1; VI : 2.
Bc 4 : Xac nh hieu nang cua day chuyen; ta co :
E=66/(12x6)= 91,7%
. Trng hp co nhieu phng an bo tr so lng khu vc lam viec, e la chon
phng an tot nhat ta co the da vao ch tieu hieu qua (hieu nang E), tc la phng
an nao co E ln nhat (tot nhat) se la phng an toi u c chon.
3. Bo tr mat bang theo nh hng cong nghe.

a. Khai niem :
Mat bang c bo tr theo cong nghe (hay theo phng thc che tao) co the c
s dung ong thi e san xuat nhieu loai san pham hay dch vu khac nhau. Loai
mat bang nay thng thch hp vi loai cong nghe khong lien tuc (gian oan) hoac
loai cong nghe co mc san lng thap va mc bien oi san pham cao.
ac iem c ban cua loai cong nghe nay la tuy thuoc tng ni lam viec ma
ngi ta phai thc hien nhieu cong viec khac nhau, v vay ma no con co ten goi la
job shop hay ca hang cong viec
Bo tr mat bang loai nay rat thng c s dung trong cac nha may san xuat
rieng le, va cac thiet b co cung chc nang th c sap xep trong cung mot nhom.
e xac nh loai hnh bo tr theo nh hng cong nghe, ngi ta tien hanh cac
bc sau :
- Xac nh kch thc cua moi phan xng.
- Xac nh cach bo tr trong tng phan xng co chu y en s lien quan lan nhau
cua chung.
- Xac nh cach bo tr thiet b va cong nhan trong tng phan xng.
Di ay la mot v du ve cach thc bo tr mat bang loai nay:
V du : Chang han chung ta can san xuat 2 san pham A & B tren mat bang nh
hng theo cong nghe, bao gom cac khu vc lam viec bo tr theo cong nghe nh
sau : Tien - khoan - mai - sn va ma - lap rap - kiem tra - bao b, ong goi. Quy
trnh va ng di chuyen cua 2 san pham A & B c the hien qua s o sau :
Mai Sn va ma Lap rap hoan

chnh
Kho
Khoan Tien vat t Kiem tra Bao b
(San ong goi
pham
A&B) Nhap vat
t
Bo tr mat bang theo nh hng cong nghe co nhng u nhc iem la :

* u iem :
- Co s uyen chuyen, linh ong trong viec phan cong, phan bo thiet b va lao
ong (Chang han : Khi mot may, thiet b nao o b h hong, th cong viec co the
chuyen ngay cho may khac trong cung mot bo phan, v the ma hoat ong san xuat
khong b gian oan).
- Phu hp vi hoat ong san xuat cua nhng doanh nghiep co s bien oi ln ve
hnh thc, quy cach san pham, hang hoa che tao va cac mat hang nay th khong on
nh vi khoi lng ln.
- au t thiet b t ton kem v khong phai nhan oi thiet b, tr khi khoi lng
san xuat ln.
- Loai bo tr mat bang nay phu hp vi nhng doanh nghiep co quy mo nho.
- Cac trng bo phan trong moi phan xng co s hieu biet thanh thao ve chc
nang va chuyen mon oi vi cac cong viec mnh phu trach.
- Do cong viec a dang hoa nen lam cho cong nhan thch thu.
* Nhc iem :
- Hieu nang van chuyen nguyen vat lieu kem.
- Hieu nang nh mc thi gian kem, viec nay ch viec kia.
- Viec xay dng ke hoach va kiem tra phc tap
- Yeu cau cao ve ky nang lao ong, do o oi hoi s gia tang mc o ao tao va
kinh nghiem cua cong nhan. ong thi do lng ton kho trong san xuat cao nen
lam gia tang lng au t t ban.
- Nang suat thap, v cac cong viec eu khac nhau, moi lan lai phai ieu chnh
may con cong nhan th phai mat cong tm hieu cong viec mi.
Trong cuoc song chung ta thng gap nhieu doanh nghiep, to chc dch vu a bo
tr thiet b cua mnh theo loai mat bang nay nh : Cac ca hang ban le, cac van
phong giao dch cua ngan hang, bu ien, cac trng hoc, benh vien c bo tr
theo khoa, khu, phong chuyen mon, hay xng sa cha xe hi bo tr khu vc sa
cha theo chung loai bo phan xe...
b. Giai phap toi u oi vi viec bo tr mat bang theo nh hng cong nghe :
Trong bai toan bo tr mat bang loai nay (theo dong gian oan), ta thng gap s
i lai gia cac bo phan rat la day ac, nhng cung co bo phan ma s qua lai lan
nhau rat la tha tht. Chang han nh : Trong mot benh vien a khoa, benh nhan i
lai gia khoa chnh hnh va khoa x quang rat nhieu, v phan ln cac benh nhan b
gay xng eu phai chup x quang trc khi c cha tr. Trong khi o th co mot
so khoa ma benh nhan va bac s rat t qua lai vi nhau nh gia khoa nhi va khoa
vat ly tr lieu.
Do khoi lng dong chay cach xa nhau nh vay nen ta phai bo tr cac bo phan
gan hoac xa nhau sao cho hp ly e tiet kiem thi gian va tien bac.
Mot nguyen ly pho bien chi phoi phng thc bo tr mat bang theo cong nghe o
la viec sap xep cac bo phan, trung tam lam viec nhng v tr co hieu qua kinh te
nhat hay v tr toi u nhat.
Mot so th du ve ch tieu dung e ra quyet nh khi bo tr mat bang theo cong
nghe bao gom :
- Viec toi thieu hoa chi ph van chuyen vat t
- Toi thieu hoa khoang cach khach hang i lai, toi thieu hoa thi gian i lai cua
nhan vien.
- Co gang bo tr cac bo phan co lien he nhieu vi nhau c cang gan nhau cang
tot.
Nh vay, cach sap xep mat bang c xem la tot nhat neu tong chi ph van
chuyen (vat t, nguyen lieu, ban thanh pham) t bo phan san xuat nay sang bo
phan san xuat khac la nho nhat, tc la :
n n
C = Cij. xij min
i =1 j =1
Trong o :
n : So bo phan lam viec (san xuat) cua doanh nghiep
i,j : Bo phan lam viec i va j
cij : Chi ph e di chuyen mot n v t bo phan i sang bo phan j. (cij a bao
gom ca yeu to khoang cach van chuyen va yeu to trong lng)
xij : So lng n v phai van chuyen t bo phan i sang bo phan j
e giai mo hnh toan tren va lam cho mo hnh toan tr nen n gian hn, ngi
ta a gia nh rang : S kho khan trong viec van chuyen la nh nhau cac bo phan
lam viec, cung nh chi ph cho viec a hang len, xuong phng tien van chuyen la
khong oi. Ngoai ra tat ca nhng bien so nh : S kho khan trong van chuyen, chi
ph a hang len xuong, phng tien van chuyen, chi ph van chuyen v.v... eu
c ket hp trong mot bien so o la cij.
V du : Cong ty N muon sap xep 6 bo phan trong nha may theo mot phng thc
tot nhat e toi thieu hoa chi ph s dung, van chuyen vat lieu gia cac bo phan co
lien quan mat thiet vi nhau. Cong ty xac nh gia thuyet ban au (nham n gian
hoa van e) la moi bo phan se co kch thc 6 x 6m, va toan bo nha xng se co
nhieu dai 18m, chieu rong 12m.
S o mat bang dien tch nha may co the bo tr eu nhau cho cac bo phan, c
gia nh ban au nh sau :
Bo phan 1 Bo phan 2 Bo phan 3 12m
Bo phan 4 Bo phan 5 Bo phan 6
18m
Ngi ta con gia nh rang :
- Cij : . Chi ph van chuyen 1 n v hang gia 2 bo phan lien la : 1USD
. Chi ph van chuyen 1 n hang gia 2 bo phan khong lien ke la : 2 USD
- Cac so lieu ve so lng n v van chuyen hang tuan c cho trong bang sau
ay :
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 50 100 0 0 20
2 30 50 10 0
3 20 0 100
4 50 0
5 0
6
Vi cac d lieu tren, hay gop y giup cong ty N sap xep lai 6 bo phan tren theo
mot phng thc tot nhat.
T s o tren, ta xac nh ma tran the hien bo phan se co chi tiet van chuyen va
bo phan se tiep nhan, c the hien qua s o sau :
1 Chieu van chuyen
50
2 100
30 0
3 50 0
10 20
20 0
4 0
50 100
0
5 0
6 Chieu tiep nhan
Bc 1 : Ve s o gian lc bieu th khoi lng hang van chuyen gia cac bo

phan .
100
2
50 30
1 3
10
20 100
50
5
4 50 6
Bc 2 : Xac nh tong chi ph van chuyen noi bo cua phng thc bo tr mat
bang nay theo cong thc :
n n
C = xij. cij
i =1 j =1
Vi cac so lieu a cho ta co :

C1 = (50x1) +(100x2) +(20x2) + (30x1) +(50x1) +(10x1) +(20x2) +(100x1)
+(50x1)
C1 = 570 USD
Bc 3 : Bang phep th ung sai, chung ta co gang tm ra mot cach bo tr mat
bang khac co kha nang cho tong chi ph van chuyen nho nhat.
- Nhn vao s o gian lc bc 1 ta xem xet tnh hp ly cua viec bo tr cac bo
phan co khoi lng van chuyen ln :
- Khoi lng van chuyen t bo phan san xuat 1 en 2 la hp ly.
- Khoi lng van chuyen t bo phan 1 en 3 la rat ln (100) ma no lai khong
nam gan nhau, v the viec bo tr hai bo phan nay la cha hp ly, can tm cach thay
oi v tr .
- Khoi lng van chuyen t bo phan 2 en 4 la hp ly.
- Khoi lung van chuyen t bo phan 3 en 6 la hp ly.
- Khoi lng van chuyen t bo phan 4 en 5 la hp ly.
Nh vay, e co c phng an bo tr tot nhat, ta can ieu chnh s bat hp ly
gia hai bo phan 1 va 3 bang cach hoan chuyen v tr gia bo phan 1 va 2 (a bo
phan 1 nam lien ke gia bo phan 2 va 3). Ta co s o bo tr lai mat bang mi nh
sau :
T o ta ve lai s o gian lc mi nh sau :

30
50 1 100
2 20
3
100
50 20
10
4 50 6
5
Qua s o gian lc, vi cac so lieu ben tren khong oi, ta tnh c tong chi ph
van chuyen noi bo cua phng thc bo tr mat bang mi la :
C2 = (50 x 1) + (100x 1) + (20 x 1) + (50 x 1) + (10 x 1) + (30 x 2) + (100 x 1) +
(20 x 2) + (50 x 1)
C2 = 480 USD
So sanh 2 phng an ta co C2 < C1
Nh vay phng an 2 tiet kiem c 90 USD ve chi ph van chuyen so vi
phng an 1 v the ta chon giai phap 2 lam phng an bo tr mat bang cho 6 bo
phan cua cong ty N.
Tuy nhien vi cach th ung va sai nay khoi lng cong viec neu tnh toan bang
tay se rat ln, v du neu ta co 9 bo phan th ta co 9! = 362.880 phng an khac
nhau, va neu 20 bo phan th se co 20! tc la len ti 608 ty phng an. Nh vay,
ngay oi vi may tnh cc nhanh cung la kho khan ch ng noi en viec dung
phep th ung va sai bang tay. Vi ly do o, e giai quyet tot cach la chon
phng an hp ly, ngi ta phai s dung nhng phan mem may tnh a viet san cho
viec la chon phng an bo tr mat bang, phan mem o goi la CRAFT
(Computerized Relative Allocation of Facilities Technique), hien nay con co loai
SPACE CRAFT.
4. Bo tr mat bang van phong :
Cach thc bo tr mat bang van phong hay con goi la bo tr mat bang theo ch tieu
nh tnh (ch tieu nh lng c ap dung cho kieu bo tr mat bang theo cong
nghe tren) c ap dung cho nhieu loai doanh nghiep bao gom ca nha may, kho
tang, van phong cong ty va cac cong s. Phng phap nay co the dung cho bat ky
bai toan nao v ta co the luon luon nh ro moi lien quan gia cac bo phan vi
nhau.
ac iem cua hoat ong van phong hoan toan khac han vi san xuat. Trong
moi trng san xuat th viec bo tr mat bang phai chu trong en hieu qua cua viec
di chuyen dong vat lieu, con trong viec bo tr mat bang van phong ta phai bo tr
mat bang sao cho dong thong tin phai lu chuyen co hieu qua nhat.
Neu cac cong viec eu c thc hien thong qua ien thoai va cac phng tien
truyen thong t xa th van e bo tr mat bang van phong tr nen n gian.
Trng hp moi lien he thong tin phai thc hien thong qua giay t, tai lieu va
phai di chuyen chung gia nhng ngi co lien quan, th viec bo tr mat bang van
phong can phai c xac nh ro rang thong qua s o cac moi quan he.
Nhng bo phan, ca nhan nao cang co cac mc o lien he chat che, mat thiet th
ho hay cac bo phan o phai c bo tr gan nhau.
e de hnh dung, ta xet xem v du di ay ve viec thiet lap s o cac moi quan
he :
V du : Mot ca hang ban thc pham trong sieu th co tam bo phan co dien tch
trong bang di ay :
Bo phan Dien tch (m2)
1 Tht va san pham tht 1.900
2 Thc pham ong lanh 1.700
3 Thc pham say kho 2.300
4 Nhan hang vao 1.000
5 Thc pham ong hop 1.500
6 Khach hang tra tien 1.100
7 Cac loai banh 900
8 Hang phi thc pham 800
Ngi ta a thiet lap mot s o bo tr theo moi quan he gia cac bo phan nay
nh sau :
1. Tht va san pham tht
u
u
2. Thc pham ong lanh
u E
3. Thc pham say kho

I a u
O a u X
a o
4. Ni nhan hang
O I u
,c O d u
E u
a X b u u
5. Thc pham ong hop u
O f u
d u
6. Ni khach tra tien
u
A u
d A
7. Cac loai banh
u b
8. Hang phi thc pham
Moi o hnh thoi ( ) the hien moi quan he gia cac nhan vien hay cac bo phan
vi nhau. Trong moi o c chia lam hai phan, c phan bet bang ng gach
tach ri (-----), phan tren the hien moi quan he c ghi ky hieu bang mot mau t
in hoa (V du : A, B, E...), phan di ghi chu bang mot mau t in thng (v du : a,
b, c, d...) the hien nguyen nhan cua moi quan he o nh the nao.
Cac moi quan he va nguyen nhan cua no co the c xac nh theo nhng tieu
thc sau ay :
Moi quan he Nguyen nhan cua moi quan

he
Ky Mc quan he Ky
Nguyen nhan (ly do)
hieu cong viec hieu
A Tuyet oi can thiet a Van chuyen vat lieu
E ac biet quan b De giam sat
I trong c Dung chung ngi
O Quan trong d Thuan li cho khach
U Quan he bnh e Tang san lng ban
X thng f My quan
Khong quan trong
Khong mong muon
CHNG X:
NG DUNG LY THUYET XEP HANG
E BO TR NHAN LC VA PHNG TIEN
I. KHAI QUAT :
Ly thuyet xep hang con goi la ly thuyet phuc vu am ong, c at ra bat ky
ni nao co cac oi tng can c phuc vu.
V du nh : Khach hang thng phai xep hang ch en lt mnh c phuc vu
tai cac ben xe khach, san bay, hai cang, nha bang, bu ien, tram ban xang dau
v.v.... hay may hong ch e c sa cha phan xng, may bay ch e c
ap xuong phi trng...
oi tng can c phuc vu co the la khach hang (ngi), hay may moc (xe
co)... Cac khach hang (ngi hoac vat) muon c phuc vu phai tuan theo mot trat
t nhat nh, thong thng trat t o la xep hang tao thanh mot hang ch.
Ba yeu to : Khach hang, hoat ong dch vu va hang ch tao thanh mot he thong
dch vu. Ly thuyet xep hang thc chat la dung e nghien cu moi quan he gia ba
yeu to o cua he thong dch vu nham xac nh nang lc phuc vu toi u cho cac
doanh nghiep dch vu. Chang han, mot cay xang can trang b may voi, may ngi ?
Mot phong kham can bao nhieu bac s, mot phong giao dch ngan hang can bao
nhieu ngi la toi u, cho tong chi ph nho nhat ma doanh nghiep van am bao hoat
ong bnh thng, khach hang khong phai ch i lau.
Ve chi ph, ta thay co 2 loai :
- Th nhat la chi ph sinh ra do thi gian phai ch i e c phuc vu (Cost of
waiting time). Chang han : Mot gi tau ch d hang phai ton mat 1.000 USD, hay
mot ngi lao ong bnh thng khi phai ch i 1 gi th ho se b thiet mot khoan
tien bang 1 gi lng.
- Th hai la chi ph cho dch vu (Cost for providing service)
Khi ta gia tang so ngi phuc vu (servers) len th chi ph do thi gian phai ch
i e c phuc vu giam xuong, nhng chi ph cho dch vu (e tra cong cho cac
nhan vien phuc vu) lai tang len.
Hai loai chi ph nay co the c bieu dien tren bieu o sau :
Chi ph
Chi ph
cho
ch i
dch vu
Tang cng dch vu Tang cng dch vu

II. AC IEM CUA XEP HANG CH :

Moi bai toan ve xep hang ch eu c the hien qua 3 ac tnh : Dong en,
dong xep hang va ngi phuc vu. Sau ay ta hay xem xet tng ac tnh mot :
1. Dong en : Dong khach en hay dong vao co cac ac iem sau :
- Vo han hay hu han : Neu so lng khach en trong mot thi iem bat ky la
mot phan rat nho trong tong so khach hang tiem nang th o la mot dong vo han.
Chang han so khach hang en cac nha hang, sieu th, bu ien...
Con neu mot x nghiep van chuyen co so au xe la 20 chiec va co xng sa
cha rieng th so xe hong phai vao xng e sa cha nhieu lam cung ch toi a la
20 chiec, th ay la mot dong hu han.
- Neu khach hang co the en mot cach ngau nhien, ngi nay khong phu thuoc
ngi kia, khong tien oan chnh xac c, so khach hang en trong mot thi oan
khong phu thuoc vao thi iem bat au tnh toan ma ch phu thuoc vao o dai cua
e x
thi oan. P ( x ) = vi x = 0,1,2,3...
x!
Nh vay so lng khach hang en (i vao he thong) trong mot n v thi gian
se tuan theo luat phan phoi xac suat poisson, tc la :
vi x = 0,1,2,3...
Trong o : P(x) - Xac suat e co x khach hang en
x - So khach hang en trong 1 n v thi gian
- So khach hang en trung bnh trong 1 n v thi gian, c goi la ch
so khach en.
n
1
e - Hang so Nepe = lim 1 + 2,7183 (C so logarit t nhien)
n n
- Tnh trang cua dong en :

Ngoai cac mo hnh xep hang eu xet vi loai khach hang san sang ch i xep
hang e en lt mnh c phuc vu th van co mot so tnh huong xay ra nh :
. Mot so khach hang khong ch ma bo i ngay khi thay hang a qua dai.
. Mot so khac tuy a xep hang roi nhng v ch mot thi gian thay lau qua nen
a bo i.
Neu xay ra hai trng hp va neu th se gay bat li cho doanh nghiep. V vay
ta can phai xac nh mot thi gian ch i va phai e khong b mat khach hang.
2. Dong xep hang : (hang ch) co nhng ac iem sau :

. Mot trong nhng trat t xep hang thng c dung en o la :
- Ai en trc c phuc vu trc : ay la loai trat t c dung pho bien.
- Phuc vu co u tien nh cac phong cap cu benh vien, ni lam thu tuc toc
hanh...
- en sau phuc vu trc : ay la loai trat t ac biet, c s dung trong nhng

trng hp ca biet, khong pho bien.
Ly thuyet xep hang ma chung ta nghien cu ay chu yeu la loai trat t en
trc phuc vu trc.
ac iem th 2 ma ta muon noi en o la :
. Chieu dai cua hang ch : co the la vo han hoac hu han
Chang han : Hang ch cua cac xe o to tren xa lo i vao tram thu tien la vo han
v khong b han che bi mot ieu kien nao het, hoac neu la chieu dai cua hang ch
v du nh khi a co mot so may bay gii han tren ng bang cua phi trng th
ngi ta ra lenh cho may bay ha canh xuong ng bang khac.
Ly thuyet xep hang chu yeu nghien cau ve loai hang ch vo han (khong xac
nh, khong b rang buoc).
3. Ngi phuc vu : (Hoat ong dch vu) co cac ac iem sau :
* ac iem th nhat la s phan bo cua thi gian phuc vu. Giong nh thi gian
en, thi gian phuc vu co the thay oi t khach hang nay sang khach hang khac.
Thi gian phuc vu (dch vu) co the la mot hang so hoac bat ky. Chang han khi
ra xe o to bang may ra t ong th thi gian ra xe la hang so.
Nhng thong thng thi gian phuc vu la mot tr so ngau nhien tuan theo luat
phan bo xac suat giam dan (luat so mu) phu hp vi dong en tuan theo luat phan
bo poisson, tc la :
P(t>x) = e-x vi x 0
Trong o : P(t > x) - Xac suat e co thi gian dich vu ln hn x phut
- So lng khach hang trung bnh c phuc vu trong 1 phut (nang
suat dch vu trung bnh)
* ac iem th 2 la oi vi ngi phuc vu can phai c xac nh so ngi
phuc vu. Co the co mot hay nhieu ngi phuc vu la tuy theo khoi lng cong viec
yeu cau - Ngi phuc vu con c goi la kenh.
Dch vu co the c phuc vu trong mot pha hay nhieu pha. Trng hp nhieu
pha xay ra khi khach hang tuan t phai i qua hai hay nhieu ngi phuc vu e dch
vu c hoan tat. Chang han : Moi benh nhan phai qua y ta roi mi gap bac s e
kham la v du ve dch vu nhieu pha.
Noi chung ta co cac cach bo tr sap at chnh he thong dch vu (he thong sap
hang) c bieu dien nh sau :
1. He thong mot kenh va mot pha
Dong xep hang Dch vu a hoan thanh

Dong vao
Server
2. He thong mot kenh nhieu pha :

Dong xep hang
Dong vao
Server 2 Dch vu a
Server 1
hoan thanh
3. He thong nhieu kenh mot pha
Server 1
Dong xep hang
Dong vao Dch vu a
hoan thanh
Server 2
4. He thong nhieu kenh nhieu pha
Dong xep hang Server 1 Server 2 Dch vu a

Dong vao hoan thanh
Server 3 Server 4
III. CAC MO HNH XEP HANG :

ay la mot thanh tu ln lao, giup cho viec ng dung ly thuyet xep hang vao
trong hoat ong cua cac doanh nghiep, ac biet la cac doanh nghiep dch vu.
1. Cong thc s dung cho cac mo hnh xep hang
Cac thong so va so o cho cac mo hnh xep hang c xac nh bang cac ky
hieu sau :
- Toc o khach en trung bnh (so lung khach en trung bnh trong 1 n v
thi gian, ch so dong vao)
1/ - Thi gian trung bnh gia 2 lan khach en
- Toc o phuc vu trung bnh (so lng trung bnh khach hang phuc vu c
trong mot n v thi gian, tc la nang suat phuc vu)
1/ - Thi gian trung bnh can cho dch vu
p - He so s dung ngi phuc vu (tc la xac suat e cho hoat ong dch vu ang
ban viec)
Pn - Xac suat ma n n v (khach en) ang trong he thong.
Po - Ty le thi gian nhan roi (ngng viec) cua he thong Po, tc la xac suat
khong co mot khach hang nao trong he thong.
Lq - So n v trung bnh trong dong xep hang (chieu dai trung bnh cua dong
xep)
Ls - So n v trung bnh trong he thong.
Wq - Thi gian ch i trung bnh trong dong xep hang
Ws - Thi gian ch i trung bnh trong he thong.
Thuat ng trong he thong c hieu la n v co the ang trong dong xep
hang hoac ang c phuc vu. Do o :
. Wq c hieu la thi gian ch i cua 1 khach hang trong dong xep hang trc
khi dch vu bat au.
. Ws la muon noi ti tong thi gian ch i trong dong xep hang cong vi thi
gian c phuc vu.
Cac cong thc ve mo hnh xep hang da tren sau bien so sau cung c neu
tren, khi cac thong so au vao va a c cho.
Cac cong thc nay c lap khi he thong trong ieu kien on nh, tc la co
trang thai can bang lau dai.
e at c trang thai on nh ch khi > , tc la toc o phuc vu phai ln hn
toc o khach en.
Khi th he thong xep hang bat on nh va co kha nang tao thanh chieu dai
xep hang vo tan do so khach en nhanh hn so khach c phuc vu, v the e xet
cac mo hnh xep hang, ta gia nh la >
2. Mo hnh I (Dong xep hang n gian )
Vi mo hnh nay hoat ong dch vu ch co mot kenh, 1 pha, dong vao theo luat
Poisson thi gian phuc vu theo luat phan bo giam dan. ay la mo hnh c ap
dung rong rai nhat.
Mo hnh nay c can c vao cac gia thiet sau ay :
1. Mot ngi phuc vu va mot pha
2. Dong en phan bo theo luat Poisson va toc o en trung bnh
3. Thi gian phuc vu theo luat phan bo giam dan (ham so mu) vi toc o phuc
vu trung bnh .
4. Trat t cua dong xep la ai en trc phuc vu trc
5. Cac khach hang eu ch cho en lt mnh c phuc vu, khong bo i.
6. Dong khach en la mot dong vo tan va tuan theo luat poisson. Da vao cac
gia thiet tren, ta co cac cong thc sau ay :
P = (/)
Po = 1 - (/)
Pn = Po (/)n
Lq = 2/(-).
Ls = /(-)
Wq = /(-)
Ws = 1/(-)
V du 1 : Mot nhan vien ngan hang co the phuc vu khach hang vi toc o
trung bnh la 10 khach hang/gi (( = 10), toc o trung bnh khach en la 7
ngi/gi ( = 7).
Dong en tuan theo phan bo poisson va thi gian phuc vu theo phan bo so
mu. trang thai on nh, hay tnh toan cac thong so cua he thong.
Ta thay : Dong khach en thoa man cac ieu kien cua mo hnh I.
= 7 ngi/gi
>
= 10 ngi/gi
. Mc o ban viec cua he thong :
P = / = 7/10 = 0,7, tc ngi phuc vu co thi gian ban la 70%
. Thi gian nhan roi cua he thong :
Po = 1 - (/) = 1 - (7/10) = 0,3, tc la 30% thi gian khong co khach hang trong
he thong (xep hang lan c phuc vu)
. Xac suat ma n khach hang co trong he thong :
Pn = Po(/)n = 0,3(7/10)n; vi n = 1,2,3...
Vi n =1 P1 = 0,21 (Xac suat co 1 khach hang trong he thong)
n = 2 P2 = 0,147 (Xac suat co 2 khach hang trong he thong)
n = 3 P3 = 0,1029 v.v... (Xac suat co 3 khach hang trong he thong)
. So khach trung bnh xep trong hang (chieu dai cua dong xep)
Lq = 2/( -) = 72/10(10-7) = 1,63
Trung bnh co 1,63 khach hang se co trong dong xep hang
. So khach hang trong he thong bang khach xep trong hang cong vi khach ang
c phuc vu :
Ls = /(-) = 7/(10 - 7) = 2,33
Trung bnh co 2,33 khach hang se co trong he thong
. Thi gian ch i trung bnh trong hang :
Wq = / (-) = 7/(10(10-7) = 0,233
Khach hang phai mat trung bnh 0,233 gi trong dong xep hang.
. Thi gian ch i trung bnh trong he thong :
Ws = 1/(-)=1/(10-7) = 0,333
Khach hang phai mat trung bnh 0,333 gi trong he thong (Thi gian xep hang
lan thi gian c phuc vu).
Neu cac khach hang bo i khi trc ho co t 3 ngi tr len trong he thong th
khach hang b mat la :
1 - (Po + P1 + P2 + P3) = 1 - (0,3 + 0,21 + 0,147 + 0,1029)
= 0,2401
Tc la trong trng hp a co 3 ngi tr len trong he thong th se co 24% so
khach hang b mat (bo i) neu phai ch i qua lau.
3. Mo hnh II (Mo hnh co nhieu kenh, mot pha) :
ay la hoat ong dch vu co nhieu kenh, mot pha, dong en poisson, thi gian
phuc vu theo luat so mu.
Goi : S la so lng cac kenh (so kenh c m) Trong mot he thong xep hang
co nhieu kenh phuc vu, ta se co cac cong thc s dung nh sau :
P = /S
1
Po = vi S >
s 1 1 1 s
n

1
+ . 1
n = 0 n! s! s
Po : Xac suat e khong co khach hang nam trong he thong:
(. ) n
Pn = Po Vi 1 n S
n !
( / )n
Pn = Po n s
Vi N S
s!( s)
Po( / ) . P
s
Lq =
S !(1 P) 2
Ls = Lq + /
Wq = Lq/
Ws = Wq + (1/)
Nh vay mo hnh nay co t nhat la 2 dch vu vien hay cac kenh giong nhau tr
len co the tiep nhan cac khach hang. Khach hang ch xep chung 1 hang, khach
hang ng au hang neu thay co mot dch vu vien nao roi th se vao ngay e c
phuc vu. Gia nh rang nang suat phuc vu () cua cac dch vu vien la nh nhau.
Con cac ieu kien khac eu giong nh mo hnh I. Ta hay xem xet v du sau ay :
V du 2 : Gia s ta them 1 nhan vien ngan hang na e phuc vu khach hang
trong v du 1 th dch vu se c cai thien len bao nhieu. Ta tnh toan cac ch tieu
tren vi S = 2 nh sau :
P=7/(2x10) = 0,35 (Cac dch vu vien a s dung 35% tong so thi gian)
Po= 0,4814 (Xac
1 1
Po = = = 0,4814
( / )
2
7 ( 7 / 10) 2 7
1 + + 1 1 + + 1
20
2! 2 10 2

suat khong co khach hang trong he thong)
P1 = 0,3369 (Xac suat co 1 khach hang trong he thong)
P4 = 0,041 (Xac suat co 4 khach hang trong he thong) v.v...
2
7
0,4814 0,35
10
. Lq = = 0,0977
2! (1 0,35)
2
. Ls = Lq + (/) = 0,0977 + (7/10) = 0,7977

. Wq = Lq/ = 0,0977/7 = 0,0139
. Ws = Wq + (1/) = 0,0139 + (1/10) = 0,1139
So sanh 2 mo hnh I va II ta thay :
Vi 2 kenh phuc vu, cac so lieu thong ke ve ch tieu c cai thien kha ro ret.
Bay gi trung bnh ch co 0,0977 khach hang trong dong xep va khach hang ch
phai ch trung bnh co 0,0139 gi e c phuc vu (t hn 1 phut so vi mo hnh I).

Gia cua dch vu tot nay la ngi phuc vu ch ban co 35% thi gian.
Cac cach tiep can khac nh : Giam bt thi gian phuc vu trung bnh hay giam
bt cac dch vu cung cap trong cac gi cao iem cung can phai c xem xet.
Trong thi han xep hang, ngi ta co the thay oi s phan bo thi gian phuc vu
bang cach loai tr cac dch vu mat nhieu thi gian ra.
4. Mo hnh III (Thi gian phuc vu co nh)
ay la mo hnh co thi gian phuc vu (dch vu) la mot hang so.
Mo hnh nay cung giong nh mo hnh I tren, ch tr thong so th 2 thi gian
phuc vu la mot hang so.
Mo hnh nay thng c s dung trong cac trng hp nh: Thiet b ra xe t
ong, thiet b in ra anh va may ban hang.
Cong thc s dung cho mo hnh nay la :
Lq = 2/2(-)
(So lng khach hang trung bnh xep hang ch)
. Thi gian trung bnh 1 khach hang phai ch trong hang.
Wq = /2(-)
. So khach trung bnh nam trong he thong
Ls = Lq + (/)
. Thi gian trung bnh 1 khach hang nam trong he thong
Ws = Wq + (1/)
. P = /
V du : Cong ty N chuyen thu mua can nhom va chai lo thuy tinh phe thai. Cac
xe tai ti ay e boc d hang eu phai ch trung bnh mat 15 phut trc khi hang
cua ho c ra sach. Chi ph cho thi gian lai xe va xe xep hang e ra la 60
USD/gi. Cong ty co d nh mua mot thiet b t ong e lam cac viec tren vi
cong suat khong oi la 12 xe/gi (tc 5 phut/xe). Cac xe en tuan theo luat poisson
va vi ch so trung bnh dong en = 8 xe/gi.
Neu a thiet b mi nay vao s dung th chi ph bao tr tnh bnh quan tren mot
au xe vao d hang la 3 USD.
Hay tnh xem cong ty co nen mua thiet b t ong nay khong?
Giai :
- Vi thiet b hien co :
Chi ph ch i/1 chuyen=1/4 gi x 60 USD=15 USD/chuyen
- Vi thiet b t ong d nh mua :
Thi gian trung bnh 1 xe ch trong hang :
Wq = /2 (-)= 8/(2 x 12)(12-8) = 1/12 gi
Chi ph ch i/1 chuyen=1/12 gi x 60USD = 5 USD/chuyen
Nh vay tiet kiem c 15USD - 5 USD = 10 USD/chuyen
V chi ph bao tr = 3 USD/chuyen
Do o tiet kiem rong se la : 10 USD - 3 USD = 7 USD
Ket luan: Cong ty N nen mua thiet b t dong nay v moi chuyen tiet iem c
ti 7 USD
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Quan tr san xuat va dch vu - PGS. ong Th Thanh Phng - Nha Xuat ban
Thong ke - 1996
2. Quan tr san xuat va tac nghiep - PTS - ang Minh Trang - Nha Xuat ban
Giao duc - 1996
3. Production and Operations and Management
James B.Dilworts Random House Business Division - NewYork - 1989

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TRNG AI HOC A LAT

QUAN TR SAN XUAT

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

I. KHAI NIEM VE SAN XUAT VA QUAN TR SAN XUAT :

au vao Qua trnh au ra

Cung cap tr lai

- Doanh nghiep tao ra San pham hu hnh (thay c)

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

San xuat san pham Tao ra dch vu

2. Khai niem ve quan tr san xuat :

Tai chnh San xuat

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

II. NOI DUNG MON QUAN TR SAN XUAT VA DCH VU

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

- Neu la san xuat day chuyen th phai bo tr ra sao ?

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

I. KHAI NIEM VE D BAO, CAC LOAI D BAO, TRNH T

II. CAC PHNG PHAP D BAO THEO THI GIAN

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

1. Phng phap tiep can gian n :

2. Phng phap bnh quan di ong gian n :

- Hoan toan da vao so lieu qua kh

- Can nhieu so lieu cua qua kh

3. Phng phap bnh quan di ong co he so :

D bao c tnh theo cong thc :

D bao cho (So thc te cua thi ky th n x he so cua thi ky th n)

V du : Theo v du tren, vi he so thang ke trc la 3, cach 2 thang la 2, cach 3

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Tam quan trong cua cac thi ky

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

6. Phng phap bnh phng be nhat :

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Thang(x) So thc te (y) x.y x2

(yi) (yi) (yi) (yo) (Is=yi/yo)

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

xy nxy 3580 2 1,5 1175

III. D BAO THEO NGUYEN NHAN BANG PHNG PHAP

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Doanh so y 106 ong

Quy lng 108 ong

3. Xac nh he so tng quan :

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

. Khi r = 1 : Chng to gia x va yc co quan he chat che (quan he ham so)

. Khi r = 1 : He so tng quan hoan hao (c tang 1x tang 1y)

. Khi r=0 : Khong co tng quan (gia x va yc khong co lien he g)

. Khi r< 0 : He so tng quan am (nghch) (x y : VD : Mc song tang

(6 51,5) (18 15)

Vi tr so nay chng to x va yc co tng quan chat che (v r gan 1)

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

IV. KIEM TRA KET QUA D BAO :

So thi ky khao sat n

Tn hieu theo doi =

Sai so tuyet oi bnh quan

3. Gii han kiem tra.

Chung ta co the thay qua s o sau :

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh

Tn hieu bao ong Tn hieu theo doi

Gii han kiem tra tren

MAD = Cac sai so d bao 85 = 14,2

Tn hieu theo doi = sai so = 35 = +2,5 MADS

Nguyen Anh Sn Khoa Quan Tr Kinh Doanh