:

1: ( 2008)
: . .

, 50 .
25 km2 15 min.
,
15 min 17
mm, 0.38.
:
()
.
() ,
63%.
() , ,
, 0.55.
() , 0.50 m
. -
Q = 42.5 h0.75 (Q m3/s, h m).

() ( )
, , ,
Gumbel .
Gumbel ,
u, , , :
1
= 0.78
X

u = x 0.45 sX

x , sX , .
, 15 min :
x = 17 / (15 / 60) = 68.0 mm/h

38% , :
sX = 0.38 68.0 = 6.5 mm/h

Gumbel = 0.198 u = 65.1 mm/h.
() r n
, , :
r = 1 (1 1 / T)n
, r = 0.63 n = 50 = 50.8 50 .
:
, n = , ()
63%.
() ,
, :
Q=ciA
c , i ,

, .
,
Gumbel,
. :
x = u + kT /
kT Gumbel, :
kT = ln[ ln (1 1/)]
= 50 kT = 3.91, x = 84.8 mm/h. c = 0.55, i = 84.8 mm/h
= 25 km2, SI, :
Q = 0.55 84.8 (10-3 m / 3600 s) (25 106) m2 = 324 m3/s
()
, , -,
. :
h = (324.0 / 42.5)1 / 0.75 = 15.0 m
0.50 m,
15.50 m.