Development of Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) Map

for Earthquake Resistance Building Design in Indonesia

Masyhur Irsyam et al.
Team for Revision of Sesimic Hazard Map of Indonesia 2010

Annual Meeting XIV

Indonesian Society for Geotechnical Engineering (HATTI) ,
Yogyakarta, 10 Februari2010
Team for Revision of Seismic Hazard Map of Indonesia 2010
(Established by Department of Public Works, Dec 2009)

Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (Geotechnical Engineering ITB Chair))

Dr. Wayan Sengara (Geotechnical Engineering ITB Vice Chair)
Ir. Fahmi Almadiar, MT (Seismic Hazard - Dept. Public Work - Secretary)
Ir. M Asrurifak, MT (Seismic Hazard - ITB)
Dr. Danny Hilman (Geology - Indonesia Research Institute)
Ir. Engkon Kertapati (Geology - Geological Research Center)
Ir. M. Ridwan (Geology - Dept. Public Work)
Dr. Irwan Meilano (Geodesy, Crustal Deformation ITB)
Prof. Dr. Sri Widiantoro (Geophysics - ITB)
Dr. Wahyu Trioso (Geophysics - ITB)
Drs. Suhardjono (Geophysics - Berau of Geophysics-Climatology-Meteorology)
Supported by:

Didukung oleh:
 Aceh Earthquake Mw=9.2
(December, 2004)

Nias Earthquake Mw=8.6

(March, 2005)

Why does
Padang the current
Earthquake Mw=7.6code require
Jambiimprovements
EarthquakeMw=6.6?
(Sept, 2009) (Oct, 2009)
1. To considers
Mentawai recentMw=7.2
Earthquake great earthquakes in Indonesia
(Oct, 2010)
Tasik Earthquake Mw=7.4 Yogya Earthquake
(Sept, 2009) Mw=6.3 (May, 2006)
These earthquakes cause:
- Thousands of casualties
- Thousand of destroyed buildings and infrastructures USGS
- Billions of US $ for reconctruction
 Level of infrastructure destruction depend on:

Building Parameters:
material characteristics and structural elements

Ground motion Parameters:

M, R, geological and soil conditions

Soft soil layer

R
M
For Design of Earthquake Resistance Infrastructures:
Requires: Ground motion parameters Forces during earthquake
Dalam aplikasinya, sesuai tingkat kesulitan dan akurasi:
Maximum acceleration
a maximum

Respons spectra
amax

Ground motion parameter

T

Time histories acceleration

0.15
0.1 Scaled Acceleration
Acceleration (g)

0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
 Goverment of Indonesia cq Department of Public Work:
Provide the Indonesian Standar for Earthquake Resistance Building Design
1st version in 1983
2nd version in 2002
3rd version in 2011?
Seismic Hazard Map of Indonesia (SNI-03-1726-2002) Horizontal Peak
Ground Acceleration at bedrock SB
for 10% in 50 years (+500-years)
 Effect of local soil condition in SNI-2002
0.38

(Soft Soil)
0.38

0.30
(Medium Soil)
(Hard Soil )
0.23
0.15
0.12

Kaku Sedang Lunak

Surabaya 0.1 g

Surabaya 0.1 g
 Continuous Updating:
to account for New Data and Technology
follows the concept of UBC IBC 2009 ASCE 2010

(March 2010):
adopted for
SNI-2010

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2010

Seismic Hazard: MCE MCE :Maximum Considered Earthquake

R(Targeted Risk Maximum Considered Eq.):
- Probablistic: 10% PE in 50 Seismic Hazard:
July 2010:
yrs (500 yrs eq.) Probabilistic
- Probabilistic: 2% Hazard
PE in 50 yrs (2,500 Maps
yrs eq.)
signed by Ministry of PW
- Deterministic Approach
Eartquake Fragility of Buildings Pleno meeting
Data up SNI-03-1726-2002 November 2010:
to1999 adopted for
SNI-2010
 DIFFERENCES IN PERFORMANCE LEVEL
UBC-97/ SNI-2002: Hasil studi USGS: Pola penyebaran hazard dan tingkat
Life Safety (500 thn) keamanan (seismic safety) lebih sesuai dengan MCE
(gabungan gempa 2500 thn + deterministik).
Jauh dari sumber gempa, gempa 500 thn nilai terlalu rendah.
ASCE-2005 ASCE-2010
Collapse Prevention (2,500 thn)

Extra performance 1.5

Max top roof displ ratio = 0.02

 PERBEDAAN YANG MENDASAR
SNI-2002 Kandungan IBC-2003 IBC-2009
Frekwensi ASCE-2005 ASCE-2010
Zone dng PGA yg sama Kontur (zona) PGA yang sama

Respons Spektranya identik S0.2 dan S1 bisa berbeda

Memiliki kandungan Respons spectra berbeda

frekwensi yang sama
Kandungan Frekwensi berbeda

Peta SS Peta S1

PGA S0.2 S1
 Seismic Hazard Analysis
Deterministic (DSHA) Probabilistic (PSHA)

-Analisis mudah difahami/sederhana - Merupakan state-of-the-arts

-Worst case scenario (kondisi terjelek) - Bukan hanya worst case scenario, tapi juga
berbagai level dan kemungkinan
- Yang umum digunakan dalam perencanaan
infrastruktur tahan gempa

Cara terbaik: Saling melengkapi dengan mengintegrasikan keduanya (MCE)

Istilah Gempa 2500 tahun bukan menunjuk kepada kejadian gempa yang
terjadi sekali setiap 2500 tahun

Tetapi lebih sebagai gambaran ttg probabilitas suatu percepatan yang memiliki
kemungkinan 1/2500 untuk terjadi setiap tahun
 Tahapan Dalam Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

PGA & Respon Spektra

Expert judgement
Expert judgement 4.4.Perhitungan
Perhitungan hazard gempa gempa
hazard
1.1.Identifikasi sumber Seismic design
Seismic design criteria
criteria Menghitung
Menghitung hazard dengan dengan
hazard input input
Identifikasi sumber gempa gempa dari Tahap (1) + (2) + (3) dengan
Lokasi: koord. sumber
Lokasi : koord.
gempa sumber gempa dari Tahap (1)ketidakpastian
memperhitungkan + (2) + (3) dengan
Geometri
Geometri
: arah strike, sudut strike,
: arah dip, sudut dip, memperhitungkan ketidakpastian
epistemic.
kedalaman maksimum epistemic.
kedalaman maksimum
Mekanisme : subduksi, patahan
Mekanisme : subduksi, patahan
normal, reverse
normal, reverse 3.
3. Pemilihan
Pemilihan Datamotion
Data strong strong motion
fungsi atenuasi accelerogram
accelerogram yang ada yang ada
fungsi atenuasi
Informasi Geologi, Informasi Geologi,
.Karakterisasi
Karakterisasisumbersumber
gempa gempa
seimologi seimologi
Frekuensi
Frekuensi kejadian
kejadian Katalog data gempa
Katalog data gempa
Slip rate
Slip rate
Magnitude maksimum
Magnitude maksimum
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Untuk konstruksi yang sangat membahayakan bila terjadi kerusakan:
PLTN, bendungan besar, konstruksi dekat sesar antisipasi Worst Case Condition

M=7.3 PLTN Muria (1999)

Semarang Fault South

0.11 g
Semarang M=7.3

Identifikasi sesar-sesar (active fault dan capable fault) disekitar PLTN-Muria

Menentukan skenario yang menghasilkan dampak maksimum
Menentukan intensitas gerakan gempa dari masing-masing skenario
Memilih skenario terjelek
Sumber-sumber gempa perlu teridentifikasi secara baik
 Tektonik Utama Indonesia
Sumber Gempa Subduksi Megathrust
Megarthrust Philipine
Mw=8.2 , a=4.64 b=0.87
Sulu Thrust
Megarthrust Andaman-Sumatera Mw=8.5 West Molucca Sea
Mw=9.2 , a=4.70, b=0.83 Mw=7.9

Megarthrust North Sulawesi East Molucca Sea

Megarthrust Middle1 Sumatera Mw=8.2 , a=4.28 b=0.91 Mw=8.1
Mw=8.6 , a=4.71, b=0.88 North Papua Thrust
Mw=8.2
Megarthrust Middle 2 Sumatera
Mw=8.5 , a=5.35, b=0.97

Megarthrust S Sumatera
Mw=8.2 , a=5.76, b=1.05 Megarthrust North Banda Sea
Mw=7.9 , a=6.86 b=1.20

Megarthrust South Banda Sea

Megarthrust Jawa Mw=7.4 , a=7.56 b=1.34
Mw=8.1 , a=6.14, b=1.10 Megarthrust Sumba Megarthrust Timor
Mw=7.8 , a=6.81, b=1.20 Mw=7.9 , a=9.09 b=1.60
 Tektonik Utama Indonesia
Sesar-sesar yang telah
teridentifikasi dan terkarakterisasi dng baik

2. Aceh
3. Tripa 61. East Molucca sea
4. Renun 8. Sumpur 59. Sulu thrust 81. North Papua thrust
1.Seulimeum 5. Toru 9. Sianok 60. West Molucca sea 77. Manokwari trench
57. Gorontalo 74. Sorong 75. Ransiki
12. Siulak 54. Batui thrust
72. Sula-Sorong 70. Yapen
6. 13. Dikit 50. Palu-Koro
Angkola
7. Barumun 14. Ketaun
53. Poso
10. Sumani 18.Semangko
11. Suliti 15. Musi 51. Matano
31. Baribis 73. Sorong-Maluku
58. Lawanopo
34. Wetar back arc 78. Lowland
33. Semarang 52. Walanae
16. Manna 55. Tolo thrust
71. Tarera-Aidun
17. Kumering
30. Bumiayu 76. Membrano thrust tbelt
19.Sunda 34. Jogja 36. Flores back arc
32. Cimandiri 79 Highland thrust belt
 Tracing Koordinat Sesar
dari Data SRTM dan Episenter Gempa yang Sudah Direlokasi
Karakterisasi Sumber Gempa (Slip Rate) Berdasarkan Data GPS

(Meilano, 2009 dan Tim Revisi Peta Gempa Indonesia, 2010)

Penentuan Geometri Sumber Gempa
Berdasarkan Tomografi
(Widiyantoro, 2009 dan
Tim Revisi Peta Gempa Indonesia, 2010
 Catalog
Range: 10LU - 12LS dan l 90BT - 145BT

Source:
1. Nasional Earthquake Information Center U.S. Geological Survey
(NEIC-USGS); the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE),
the Bureau Central International de Seismologie (BCIS),
International Seimological Summeries (ISS), International
Seimological Center (ISC), Advance National Seismic System (ANSS-
USGS); Centennial (elocated); Relocation Cataloque (Engdahl,
1964-2005).
2. Indonesian Berau of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics
(BMKG).
3. Abe, Abe & Noguchi dan Gutenberg & Richter,

Data yang digunakan sampai akhir 2009

All shocks
Classification of Main Shocks
Based on Type of Source

Shallow backgound

Megatrust Fault
Sesar
Background
Subduksi Megathrust
Benioff Zone/
Benioff 1 Deep BG
Subduksi Benioff
Benioff 2

Benioff 3

Benioff 4
Penelitian kedepan (dalam scope yg lebih luas):
Shocks 0 50 km
Episenter Gempa Utama (Kedalaman 0-50 km)
Diluar Mekanisme Subduksi
Diluar Mekanisme Sesar Dangkal

Episenter yg bukan milik Subduksi maupun Sesar Dangkal

Dimodelkan sebagai Gridded Seismicity

Perlu melakukan kajian yang lebih mendalam

terhadap patahan-patahan aktif di seluruh Indonesia
SEAOC Vision 2000 Committee dan FEMA 273
Design Probability of
Earthquake Level
Live Exceedance

20% Immediate Occupancy 225 years SNI 1983

ccccccc
Live Safety
50 tahun 10% 500 years SNI 2002
(Rare Earthquake)

2% Near Collapse/ MCE

2.500 years IBC
(Very Rare Earthquake) since 2003

MCER SNI 2011 MCE +Deterministic

+ Fragility
+1.000 years Dams+Bridges
+ 500 years Dams+Bridges
+ 200 years Small Dams
+ 50 years Small Dams
MCE (Maximum Considered Earthquake):

Probabilitas 2500thn + Deterministik

Peta percepatan puncak (PGA) di batuan dasar (SB)
10% dlm 50 thn (gempa 2,500 thn)
Peta spektrum respons percepatan 0.2 detik (SS) di batuan dasar (SB)
2% dlm 50 thn (gempa 2,500thn)
Peta spektrum respons percepatan 1.0 detik (SS) di batuan dasar (SB)
2% dlm 50 tahun (2,500 thn)
 Peta percepatan puncak (PGA) di batuan dasar (SB)
Perhitungan deterministik (150% median) sumber gempa sesar
 Peta percepatan puncak (PGA) di batuan dasar (SB)
Perhitungan deterministik (150% median) sumber gempa subduksi
Near-Fault Criteria
Sa
Probabilistic - 2% in 50 years

Plateau - 1.5 x UBC Design

ASCE 7 84th percentile= 1.5 Median

Deterministic - 1.5 x Median
ASCE 10 84th percentile= 1.8 Median
X

Fault
Sesar
(Source: E.V. Leyendecker)
 Near-Fault MCE
Sa

Deterministic

Plateau - 1.5 x UBC Design

PGA= 0.6g

For PGA:
ASCE 10 not 1.5 x 0.4 (zone 4 UBC), but 0.5g Probabilistic - 2%
in 50 Years

Fault

(Source: E.V. Leyendecker)

Maximum Considered Earthquake Geometric mean (MCEG) PGA
 Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)
for 0.2 sec Spectral Response Acceleration
 Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)
for 1.0 sec Spectral Response Acceleration
 Peta Percepatan di Batuan Dasar (PGA)
Untuk Probabilitas Terlampaui 10% dalam 100tahun (1,000 tahun)

Didukung oleh:
 Peta Percepatan di Batuan Dasar (PGA)
Untuk Probabilitas Terlampaui 10% dalam 50tahun (500 tahun)

Didukung oleh:
 Laporan Studi:
Tim Revisi Peta Hazard Gempa Indonesia 2010
 Conclusions
A probabilistic spectral hazard maps for Indonesia have been developed based
upon updated available seismotectonic data, new fault models, and recent
ground-motion prediction equations.

Seismic sources were divided into fault, subduction, and background zones.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis has been completed for 50, 200, 500, 1000,
dan 2500 years.

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis has been completed.

For buildings: Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) has been completed

based on Probabilistic +Determintic Approaches.

.
Thank You