nh gi gii hn tin cy v bn ca chn cng trnh DKI c k n yu

t ngu nhin v hng sng v chiu su nc bng phng php m phng

Montecarlo
TS Nguyn Qun Thng1, PGS TS Bi c Nng2, ThS Hong Mnh Khang1
Vin K thut B t lnh Cng binh
1

2
Vin Cng trnh c bit Hc vin K thut Qun s

Email: qthang48@gmail.com
Tm tt:
Trn c s kt qu nghin cu c cng b ng thi kho st thm mt s yu t ngu nhin ca
mi trng, bi bo gii thiu nhng kt qu nh gi mi v gii hn tin cy ca cng trnh DKI in hnh
giai on xy dng trc nm 1999. Tnh ton c thc hin vi s liu v mi trng bin trong hai giai
on trc v sau nm 2010. Bng phng php m phng Monte Carlo, phn mm cho php thng k s ln
h hng ca tng phn t v xc sut h hng (an ton) ca chng. T nhng kt qu tnh ton gii hn tin
cy, kho st mc nh hng ca nhng yu t khc n kt qu cho ta mt cch nhn nhn khch quan s c
cng trnh xy ra v bin php ngn nga cho cc cng trnh trong tng lai. Kt qu nghin cu l mt phn
trong ni dung d n TB11.6-G2.
T kha: Montecarlo, gii hn tin cy, DKI

1. M u:
Cng trnh DKI c xy dng t cui nhng nm 1980 ca th k trc. Cho n nay c th
chia lm 4 giai on chnh: Giai on 1 (trc nm 1990) c th coi l giai on thn d t phng
n cng trnh, xy dng nng lc tnh ton thit k n nh gi v khng nh kh nng thi cng;
Giai on 2 (t nm 1990 n 1998) xy dng uc 17 cng trnh dng mng cc vi 4 cc chnh,
phn ln cc cng trnh u nm trn bi cn san h c chiu su nc t 12 25m; Giai on 3 (t
nm 1998 n 2009) l giai on gia c nng cp trc tip; Giai on 4 (t 2009 n nay) do nhiu
cng trnh ht tui th thit k nn c sa cha v nng cp bng nhng cng trnh mi. Sau
hn 25 nm, tng bc chng ta c nhng ti liu v mi trng bin ngy mt y cng vi
nhng k thut tnh ton mi cho php nh gi kh nng lm vic ca cng trnh theo nhng tiu ch
ton din hn.
Khc vi cc cng trnh xy dng trn t lin, kt cu chn cng trnh bin nm trong mi
trng cht lng chu tc ng h ngoi lc rt phc tp. Bn cht ca nhng tc ng ny l ngu nhin
v do vy phn ng ca h cng ngu nhin. m bo an ton cho cng trnh, gim chi ph u t trong
vi chc nm gn y thit k cng trnh trn c s tin cy tng bc c p dng trong thc tin
nc ngoi [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]. trong nc, nhng nghin cu tng t cho cc cng trnh bin cng c
trin khai Vin c hc Vit nam [11] [12] [13] v mt vi c quan khc [7] [14] [15][16][17]... Mc ch
chnh ca cc nghin cu l c gng tm ra mt phng php kh d d bo tin cy ca cng trnh do
tc ng ca mt tp cc i lng ngu nhin. Gn y nht l nghin cu chn on trng thi k thut
trn c s tui th m cho cng trnh DKI c cng b trong d n TB 11 (Giai on 1). Kt qu
nghin cu xc nh c tui th ca mt cng trnh DKI in hnh theo gii hn mi. Tuy nhin, vi
cch tip cn ny c kt qu chnh xc cn ph thuc vo nhiu thng s kho st ti cng trnh. Ni
dung bi bo s trnh by vn tt c s l lun nhm xc nh gii hn tin cy ca h kt cu trn c s
s dng phng php m phng Montecarlo. Cui cng s trnh by v d tnh ton xc nh tin cy
nhng trng thi bin khc nhau trn m hnh ca cng trnh DKI khng nh kh nng p dng ca
phng php.
2. tin cy h kt cu v khi nim gii hn tin cy
Cho n nay, phng php phn tch tin cy kt cu thng chia lm ba mc ph thuc
chnh xc thc hin. Phng php mc III c xem nh l phng php xc xut chnh xc trn c
s bit y c trng ngu nhin ca cc bin lin quan. Mc ny cha th p dng i vi cng
trnh bin do cn thiu thng tin ca nhng bin quan trng. Khc vi phng php mc III l
phng php mc II c xem nh kh thi hn do cc bin ngu nhin ch cn m t thng qua hai
tham s l gi tr c ngha v sai lch chun. Mt khc, mc ny cn c th b qua mt s bin t
quan trng, cho php tuyn tnh ha ng cong trng thi gii hn v thu nh m hnh h hng ca
h. Cui cng l phng php mc I, khi ny tin cy c hnh thnh thng qua mt lot cc h s
an ton n l cho trc. Thc cht xc xut ca cc bin mc I l h s an ton c chn.
Nh chng ta u bit, tin cy ca mt h thng l khi nim c nh lng (o theo
xc sut) phn nh kh nng lm vic an ton ca h thng da trn kt qu x l cc phn ng ca h
chu tc ng ca tp cc thng s mang bn cht ngu nhin gy ra [10] [11]. Ni mt cch khc, do
tc ng ca cc bin ngu nhin u vo m h c th trng thi an ton hoc h hng khng s
dng c. Nh th ng x ca phn t hoc c h lun l mt hm ca cc i lng u vo hm
trng thi. Ty theo bn cht ca trng thi la chn xem xt m c nhng cch tip cn khc nhau v
tin cy v tui th. Trong bi bo s s dng trng thi gii hn cui cng nh ga tin
cy ca h mc II.
Nu k hiu G g X iG - l gi tr trung bnh hm trng thi ca h hoc phn t; GN - l sai
lch trung bnh bnh phng ca G ; S l gi tr gii hn trung bnh ca trng thi xem xt v SN - l
sai lch trung bnh bnh phng ca gi tr gii hn cho php. Khi ny ch s tin cy c xc nh
theo biu thc (1) :

SG
; (1)

N 2
G
N 2
S

Theo l thuyt tnh ton tin cy [10 ] ta c th suy ra xc sut an ton ca h bng cng
thc:

Ps
1



exp x 2 / 2 dx ; (2)
2

i vi tng phn t c th xc nh cc i lng theo cng thc (1)&(2) bng nhng

phng php khc nhau v t nh gi c tin cy. Tuy nhin, vi mt h thng c bit vi
h kt cu, vic nh gi tin cy kh hn nhiu do khng c s phn tch mi quan h qua li
gia cc phn t trong cng mt h. nh gi xc sut an ton Ps ca h theo m hnh s in cho
kt qu chnh xc ch khi phn tch c h kho st thnh tng phn ni tip hoc song song. i vi
h phc tp kh nng phn tch kh thc hin, trong trng hp ny ta c th nh gi xc sut ph
hoi theo cn [10]:

max Pfi Pfs 1 1 Pfi ;

n
(3)
i 1

Vi Pfi Xc sut ph hoi ca phn t ; Pfs Xc xut ph hoi ca h thng.

Cng thc (3) c ngha l i vi mt h thng xc sut ph hoi lun ln hn xc sut ph
hoi ca phn t c xc sut ph hoi ln nht v nh hn xc xut ph hoi khi xem nh tt c cc
phn t ca h c ghp ni tip. Nh vy, nu quy nh mt gi tr xc sut no th iu kin an
ton theo tin cy ca h c th vit di dng:

n n
1 (1 Pfi ) Pf hoc (1 P fi ) PS (4)
i 1 i 1

Vi [Pf] Xc xut h hng cho php ; [Ps] Xc xut an ton cho php ;
Nh vy, theo quan im v gii hn tin cy vic nh gi mc an ton ca mt h kt
cu c th thng qua tin cy ca tng phn t v biu thc (4). Cch nh gi ny l thin v an
ton nhng c th p dng d dng trong qu trnh thit k mi cng nh nh gi tin cy ca cng
trnh c xy dng.
3. Cc i lng ngu nhin nh hng n tin cy chn cng trnh bin
3.1. Tnh cht c hc ca vt liu
i vi vt liu thp, cc tnh cht c hc c trng c s dng khi tnh ton thit k bao
gm : M duyn n hi khi ko v nn E (Mpa) ; H s Poisson ; ng sut gii hn chy fy (Mpa).
Tt c nhng thng s trn u l nhng i lng ngu nhin, do s khng n nh v thnh phn
ha hc, tc ng ca nhng yu t khch quan trong qu trnh gia cng ch to...Gi tr danh ngha
ca cc thng s v sai lch trung bnh bnh phng cho trong bng. Trong qu trnh tnh ton, tnh
cht c hc ca vt liu c xem nh l i lng ngu nhin phn b chun.
Bng 1: Cc c tnh c hc ca thp
E G fy
Cc thng s Ghi ch
(Mpa) (Mpa) (ASTM A7)
Gi tr danh ngha 2.078 E5 0.296 8.443E4 345
Sai lch 0.01 0.026 0.042 0.09
3.2. Ti trng tc dng
Ti trng tc dng ln h c th chia thnh hai dng: ti trng khng i v ti trng thay i.
Ti trng khng i tn ti sut thi gian lm vic ca h v thng dao ng xung mt tr s
danh nh no . Ti trng ny thng c m t bng hm phn b chun.
Ti trng thay i, l i lng thay i mt cch ngu nhin. in hnh i vi cng trnh
bin l ti trng sng, gi, dng chy. Do thnh phn ca ti trng gi v dng chy l nh so thnh
phn cn li nn thng i vi cng trnh bin ngi ta quan tm nhiu n c tnh ngu nhin ca
sng bin.
a) M phng qu trnh ngu nhin ca sng bin
C th xem sng bin ngu nhin nh l s t hp ca v s sng tuyn tnh khc nhau v
bin an, tn s n, cc s sng kn v pha ban u n. Tt c phn b u trong khong [0, 2] v
phng trnh mt sng c vit di dng [8] :

X , t n X , t an exp j (k n X n t n ); (5)
n 1 n 1

Qu trnh ngu nhin ca cao mt sng so vi mc nc tnh thng c gi thit l qu

trnh ngu nhin xuyn tm, c phn b chun, dng v ergodic. c trng cho sng bin ngu
nhin ngi ta dng ph sng, vng bin Vit Nam cha xy dng c ph sng ring. Nhiu kt
qu nghin cu [6] [8] [9] [12] cho thy ph sng Pierson Mostkowits (P-M) l tng i ph hp
vi vng bin nc ta. Hm mt ph sng P-M c dng :

B
S
A
exp 4 ; (6)
5

g2 g
4

S 1 5 exp 2 ;
w
Hoc (7)


2 4
h w
Vi 1 4 s 2 ;
2
2 16 ;
2
(8)
gT0 0
gT
hs Chiu cao sng c ngha (m) ; w Tc gi tng ng (m/s) ;
T0 Chu k ct khng tng ng (s) ; g Gia tc trng trng (m/s2)
Nh vy vi iu kin bin xc nh (hs ,w, T0 ) bng biu thc xc nh hm mt ph (6)
v l thuyt xc xut ta c th m phng qu trnh ngu nhin ca sng bin. Mt th hin ti thi
im t bt k ca sng ngu nhin (chiu cao mt sng ti thi in t) xc nh theo cng thc:
N
t an cos n t n ; (9)
n 0

b a
an 2.S n ; ; n n. ;
N
n S ngu nhin phn b u trong khong (0 2).
a, b Min kho st ca ph tn s;
Khi gi tr n, thay i t a n b ta nhn c mt tp cc th hin (t). Vi gi tr trung
bnh c xc nh theo cng thc:

1 N
t lim
k N

k 1
k t ; (10)

V lch chun : t D t ; (11)

1 N
D t lim
k N

k 1
( k t t ) 2 ;

Trn c s s liu thu c, bng cc thut ton s l ph hp ta s nhn c gi tr chiu

cao sng cc tr dng cho tnh ton mi ln th nghim. Do cc tp th hin chiu cao sng mang
yu t thi gian nn khng th s dng cc c trng tnh theo cng thc (10) (11) vo tnh ton nh
nhng i lng ngu nhin khc. Tuy nhin mi ln m phng trng thi bin (t0 t) ta lun xc
nh c mt chiu cao sng cc i v s dng n nh gi tr cc hn xc nh ti trng kim tra
tnh an ton ca cng trnh.
b) Xc nh ti trng
Trong thc t k thut, tnh ton ti trng ca sng bin ln phn t kt cu dng ng
thng s dng cng thc ca Morison :

f r 0.5 CD D vr vr CM D 2 / 4 ar ; (12)

fr Ti trng phn b vung gc vi trc thanh theo hng r (N/m) ;

- T trng ca nc (N/m3) ; D ng knh ca phn t (m) ;
vr Tc ca phn t nc theo hng r (m/s)
ar Gia tc ca phn t nc theo hng r (m/s2) ; CD , CM H s thy ng ;
Bng nhng l thuyt sng L
khc nhau: sng tuyn tnh (Airy),
x,z,t)
sng phi tuyn (Stokes, Cnoidal,
Hm dng ...) ta xc nh c

H
thnh phn vn tc v gia tc ca
phn t nc ti mt im trong
khng gian. Mi l thuyt c phm

d
vi p dng khc nhau ph thuc vo
Z
mi quan h gia bc sng v
chiu su nc. Trong bi bo ny
X
chng ti s dng l thuyt sng
Stokes bc 5 c xem nh tng
i ph hp vi vng bin Trng Hnh 1. Thng s hnh hc c bn ca sng
Sa DKI.
Nh vy theo quan im sng ngu nhin khi thit k ly thng s sng theo trng thi cc
hn hoc trng thi s dng th chiu cao sng lun nhn mt gi tr trung bnh hs vi mt sai s no
hs v ti trng tc dng ln h cng thay i tng ng. Trn c s m phng qu trnh ngu
nhin ca sng c c mt tp cc th hin thi im t (thng ly t=0) t xc nh c hs v
sai lch hs. Khi chp nhn gi thit qu trnh ngu nhin ca sng l dng, egodic v phn b chun
ta c th p dng cc cng c khc nh gi tin cy ca kt cu chn cng trnh bin.
c) Tnh ngu nhin ca hng sng v chiu su nc
trn trnh by tnh ngu nhin ca cao mt sng v cch xc nh dng mt sng theo
ph P-M hay ni cch khc ta xc nh uc chiu cao sng ngu nhin cc i ng vi mt trng
thi bin theo cc tham s : chiu cao sng danh ngha, chu k ct khng trung bnh v chiu su bin
thi im tnh.
Nh chng ta u bit, s c i vi cng trnh bin thng xy ra khi c gi bo (trng thi
hot ng cng nh trng thi cc hn). Ti mt v tr xy dng cng trnh, theo s liu thng k ta
xc nh c hng sng, gi thng xy ra. Tuy nhin trong cn bo hng sng, gi tc ng vo
cng trnh l khng th lng trc. Vi nhng cng trnh khng tht s i xng th ng x ca
cng trnh s khc nhau khi hng ti trng tc ng thay i. Do vy thi gian gn y, khi tnh ti
trng sng, gi, dng chy thng chp nhn gi thit ba thnh phn l cng chiu v tc ng vo
cng trnh nh nhau theo mi hng (phn b u trong khong 2). Trong tnh ton ca chng ti
hng sng ngu nhin c tnh theo cng thc :

beta 15*int(24* rand (0,1));

Theo cng thc hng sng beta s c xc nh ngu nhin theo lut phn b u trong
24 kh nng cch nhau 15 .
 Vi chiu su nc, do tc ng ca triu v nc dng nn s thay i trong khong t chiu
su nc cc tiu (dmin) n chiu su nc cc i (dmax). n gin ta chp nhn gi thit s thay
i ny cng theo lut phn b u v tnh theo cng thc.

d d min rand (0,1) *( d max d min );

Hai yu t trnh by trn c a thm vo chng trnh khi tnh ton tnh ngu nhin ca
ti trng nh trnh by mc d.
d) Cc bc xc nh ti trng sng ngu nhin tc ng ln cng trnh
1. Xc nh cc s liu ban u v cng trnh v mi trng bin vng xy dng bao gm:
Thng s m t cng trnh ; Chiu cao sng c ngha, thi gian chu k T0, mc nc tnh
d, tc gi tng ng ;
2. S dng ph sng P-M theo cc cng thc phn a mc 4.2 xy dng tp cc s liu
(t); Trn c s tp s liu c xc nh c thng s sng cc tr ng vi trng thi
bin c m phng (HsMax v T tng ng) ;
3. Chn ngu nhin hng sng theo lut phn b u trong khong 2. Chn ngu nhin
chiu su nc theo lut phn b u trong khong mc nc thp nht v cao nht.
4. S dng phng trnh Morison v l thuyt sng Stokes bc 5 vi cc s liu sng bin
xc nh bc 2 tnh ti trng tc dng ln h.
4. Phng php Monte Carlo v nh gi tin cy ca h kt cu
Nh vy xc nh c gii hn tin cy ca h thng trc ht phi xc nh tin cy
ca cc phn t cu thnh h thng . Thc t hm biu din trng thi ca phn t kt cu l hm
nhiu bin v phi tuyn thm ch khng tng minh nn vic xc nh chnh xc xc sut an ton PS
hoc ch s tin cy theo cc cng thc gii tch gp nhiu kh khn. Do vy trong tnh ton
thng s dng phng php gn ng nh : phng php xp x bc mt FORM, phng php
xp x bc hai SORM hoc phng php m men thch hp v phng php m phng Monte-Carlo
[1] [2] [5][14][15][16].
4.1. Phng php m phng Monte Carlo

Hm trng thi ca h thng (hoc phn t) G g X N c xc nh bi tp cc bin ngu

nhin X
N
x1 , x2 , ..., xm , nu nh bit lut phn b ca tng bin trn c s s dng my tnh ta c
th m phng c tng i lng nhin u vo v xc nh c gi tr trng thi ca n. So vi trng
thi cho php ta s nh gi c h thng ( hoc phn t) h hng hay an ton. Nu gi s ln th
nghim l (ntest) v s ln h hng ng vi mi phn t l nfi. Xc xut h hng i vi tng phn t
c xc nh bng t s Pfi = nfi /(ntest). Sau khi xc nh c Pfi ta s nh gi c gii hn tin cy
ca h. y l phng php mnh, tin cy song cn t c s dng do yu cu thi gian tnh ln.
chnh xc ca phng php ch ph thuc vo s ln th nghim. Cc bc tnh ca phng php m
phng Monte Carlo nh sau :

1. Bng m phng to lp cc i lng ngu nhin u vo X iN x1,i , x2,i , ..., xm,i ;
2. Xc nh trng thi gii hn ca tng phn t theo tp cc bin ngu nhin trn.
3. So snh vi trng thi cho php, xc nh c trng thi h hng hoc khng h hng, m
s ln h hng i vi mi phn t.
 4. Quay li bc 1, thc hin (ntest) ln. Tnh t s gia s ln h hng v s ln th nghim ta
c xc sut xy ra h hng ca phn t ; theo cng thc (13)&(14) xc nh c cn trn
v di ca tin cy ton b h.
4.2. nh gi tin cy ca chn cng trnh bin
Chn cng trnh bin l mt h kt cu phc tp chu tc ng thng xuyn ca sng
bin. Trng thi c xem xt khi nh gi tin cy chnh l nhng phn ng ca tng phn t i
vi ti trng tc ng. Khi ti trng tc ng gy ra nhng phn ng vt qu gii hn, phn t s h
hng. phn tch nhng ng x c hc ca h kt cu do tc dng ca ngoi lc cho n nay vn
thng dng phng php phn t hu hn. Nh vy, mi mt ln th nghim theo phng php
Monte Carlo i vi kt cu chn cng trnh bin l mt ln xc nh gi tr cc tr ngu nhin
ca ti trng sng v phn tch ng x ca h bng phng php PTHH. Do sng bin l mt qu
trnh ngu nhin nn vic xc nh gi tr ti trng nh gi tin cy kt cu s kh khn hn.
Tuy nhin mt trng thi bin dng ko di nhiu nht trong vi gi c c trng bng chiu cao
sng ng k Hs v chu k ct khng trung bnh [8][9]. Theo ni dung trnh by phn trn ta xc
nh c cc i lng ngu nhin cn thit tnh ti trng. Bi ton ngu nhin s tr thnh bi
ton tt nh mi ln th nghim. Cc bc tnh ton xc nh gii hn tin cy ca kt cu
chn bng phng php m phng Monte Carlo c th tm tt nh sau :
1. Chun b cc s liu ban u : S liu v kt cu, nhng s liu cn thit v mi trng bin.
Cc thnh phn ti trng khng mang c tnh ngu nhin. Cho s ln th nghim ntest.
2. Xc nh tnh cht c hc ca vt liu theo lut phn b ngu nhin cho; Tnh ton cc c
trng ca sng bin theo ni dung trnh by mc 3.2; Tnh ti trng sng tc ng ln cng
trnh theo cc c tnh ngu nhin xc nh.
3. Theo cc s liu ban u bc 1 v kt qu tnh ti trng bc 2 xy dng t hp ti ph
hp vi cc tiu chun thit k. Phn tch ng x ca kt cu chn bng phng php
PTHH.
4. So snh trng thi chuyn v ca cc nt, trng thi bn, n nh ca mi phn t vi trng thi
cho php. Ghi li nhng trng hp h hng ca mi nt v mi phn t nfi.
5. Kim tra s ln th, nu cha t quay li bc 2 nu tha mn chuyn sang bc 6.
6. S l s liu c xc nh Pfi = nfi / ntest. Vi c h kt cu gii hn trn ca xc xut an
ton tnh theo cng thc : Max Pss (1 Max Pfi ) ; (13)

Min Pss 1 Pfi ;

ntest
V gii hn di : (14)
i 1

Pss Xc xut an ton ca h; Pfi Xc xut h hng ca phn t;

Trn c s cc ni dung trnh by, kt hp vi phng php phn t hu hn vit cho h
thanh khng gian chng ti xy dng chng trnh tnh gii hn tin cy chn cng trnh bin
bng thp dng mng cc.
5. V d tnh ton
S dng chng trnh vit, tin hnh xc nh gii hn tin cy kt cu chnh ca cng
trnh c xy dng vng bin DKI t nhng nm 1990; cng trnh bao gm hai khi : khi chn
v khi thng tng (khng bao gm khi nh ). Chn hnh chp ct c 4 cc chnh,
nghing cc panen l 1: 15.6; Tng chiu cao n sn cng tc (tnh t y bin) l 36m, ring chn
 cao 28m, ton b kt cu bao gm 6 nhm phn t vi kch thc mt ct ngang ca tng nhm
phn t cho bng 2. Nhm 1- phn t cc; nhm 2 - ng chnh ca chn ; nhm 3, 4, 5, 6 cc
phn t lin kt khc. Vt liu l cc loi thp ng API c nhng c tnh nh sau: Gi tr danh ngha
ca gii hn chy Fy = 450 345 Mpa, Sai lch trung bnh Fy = 9%; M uyn n hi E = 2.078 E5
Mpa (Coi nh khng i); Tnh ton c thc hin vi hai b s liu khc nhau v trng thi bin.
Th nht l b s liu c s dng tnh ton thit k v gia c sa cha cho tt c cc cng trnh
trc nm 2009. Th hai l b s liu c s dng thit k nng cp sa cha cc cng trnh t 2010
n nay.
Bng 2. iu kin mi trng bin (khu vc Bi T Chnh):
Cc thng s S liu c S liu mi
Chiu su nc tnh trung bnh (m) 22 22
Mc nc cao nht (m) 23 25.5
Mc nc thp nht (m) 20.9 20.6
Chiu cao sng c ngha H 8.25 9.45
Chu k ct khng trung bnh T0 (s) 10 11
Chiu cao sng trng thi s dng Hs (m) 11.7 11.7
Chu k sng T (s) 12.7 12.27
Chiu cao sng cc hn cho thit k Hs (1%) m 14 16.56
Chu k sng T (s) 11 13.8
Dng chy mt (m/s) 2.5 2.47
Dng chy y (m/s) 1 2.36
Ti trng do phn thng tng tc dng ln khi chn : Theo phng thng ng Pz=
4270.0 KN;
Bng 3 : Kch thc mt ct ngang ca cc nhm phn t (mm)
Nhm 1 Nhm 2 Nhm 3 Nhm 4 Nhm 5 Nhm 6
Phng n thit k 720 / 32 812/20.63 609.6/12.7 377/ 12.0 I 700x300 I 360x150

Cng trnh c tnh ton thit k theo s ngm cng vi chiu su ngm gi nh l 1m.
Hng tc dng ca sng trong iu kin cc hn l hng ng Bc. B s liu mi trng bin
s dng l s liu ca Trung tm kh tng thy vn bin cung cp. T hp ti trng chn cho tnh
ton kim tra l t hp A (Ti trng c nh k =1.0 ; Ti trng thng xuyn k=1.0 ; Ti trng tm
thi trn cc sn k=0.75 ; Ti trng gi k=0.8 ; Ti sng v dng chy k=1).
 +15.0

+12.8

377x12

3
x1

77
77

x1
3

2
+6.0(WP)
+5.5 377x12
+4.8

3
77
x1
2

812.8x20.6
MSL (0.0) 0.0

-2.1 377x12

2.7
1 x1
09
6

15.6
609x12.7
-10.0

60
9 x1
2.
7

.7
12
9x
60

720x20
MUD LINE -22.0

-24.0

Hnh 1. S tnh
Tnh ton c thc hin vi s ln th nghim ntest = 10000, mi phng n tnh 3 ln.
Chng trnh c th thng bo chiu cao sng cc i xut hin sau th nghim v s ln h hng
xut hin cc phn t. Kt qu tnh cho trn bng 4.
Bng 4. Gii hn tin cy trn v di theo tnh ton

Chiu su ngm 1m 2m 3m 4m (~6Dc)

Xc sut an ton PsMax PsMin PsMax PsMin PsMax PsMin PsMax PsMin
0.9999 0.9999 0.9988 0.9967 0.9884 0.9576 0.9557 0.8400
S liu mi trng bin c

Ln tnh 1
(1, 0, 0, 0)* (6, 12, 10, 5) (108,101,116,106) (436,433,443,393)
1.000 1.000 0.9992 0.9973 0.9892 0.9628 0.9562 0.8408
Ln tinh 2
(0, 0, 0, 0)* (5, 8, 6, 8) (75,108,97,97)* (418,430,438,410)
0.9999 0.9999 0.9985 0.9969 0.9888 0.9593 0.9556 0.8465
Ln tnh 3
(0, 0, 1, 0) (6, 15, 4, 6) (92,102,112,107) (394,427,444,367)
Trung bnh 0.9999 0.9999 0.9988 0.9970 0.9888 0.9599 0.9558 0.8424
0.9923 0.9733 0.9923 0.9733 0.9622 0.8681 0.8867 0.6218
Ln tnh 1
S liu mi trng bin mi

(63,77,62,67) (63,77,62,67) (315,378,367,320) (1092,1103,1133,1099)

0.9991 0.9952 0.9937 0.9759 0.9648 0.8699 0.8922 0.6364
Ln tinh 2
(4, 5, 9, 4) (61,63,63,56) (339,352,339,332) (1060,1051,1062,1078)
0.9993 0.9975 0.9917 0.9708 0.9611 0.8649 0.8818 0.6259
Ln tnh 3
(7, 4, 4, 1) (72,83,60,68) (332,389,365,338) (1043,1182,1153,1030)
Trung bnh 0.9969 0.9886 0.9926 0.9733 0.9627 0.8676 0.8869 0.6280
Khi tnh ton theo s liu mi trng bin mi h hng khng ch xut hin i vi cc m cn
xut hin cc thanh cho t cao trnh -2.1 n +4.8 v cc ct ng ca khung ni.
*) Thng k s ln h hng ti v tr cc phn t cc 1 4.
 Kt qu tnh ton cho thy: Vi chiu su ngm gi nh khong 1 2 mt cng trnh c
tin cy cao trong c hai iu kin mi trng c v mi. Tuy nhin cc thanh cho cao trnh -2.1
+4.8 m s dng ng 377x12 l yu nn c kh nng h hng iu kin mi trng bin mi.
tin cy ca cng trnh suy gim nhanh khi c hin tng gim chiu su ngm so vi thit k ban u.
Nu chiu su ngm gi nh chn bng khong (5 6)Dc nh cc cc cng trnh thit k gn y th
phng n cng trnh l khng tin cy. Khi k n tnh ngu nhin ca hng sng kt qu xc
nh tin cy gii hn tng ln so vi s liu cng b [15], iu ny l do h hng khng tp
trung cho mt phn t nm hng ch o na m xy ra u hn tt c cc phn t cc.
Kt lun:
tin cy ca cng trnh bin ni chung v cng trnh phc v an ninh quc phng ni ring
c ngha ht sc quan trng. Vic nh gi tin cy cng trnh theo trng thi h hng hon ton
hoc theo trng thi mi cha t c mc chnh xc mong mun do cn nhiu yu t ban u
cha xc nh c y . Tuy nhin vi cch tip cn v kt qu xc nh gii hn tin cy nh
trnh by trn cho chng ta kh nng nh gi c mc an ton ca cng trnh bin c nh
dng Jacket. T nhng nh gi ny c th xy dng nhng gii php hp l gim ti a nh
hng ca nhng thng s mang tnh bt nh ln.

Ti liu tham kho

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