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ISBN 938059097-0
: 978-93-80590-97-4
9 789380 590974
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
Editor & Director
Dr. R.K. Thukral
Research Editor
Dr. Shafeeq Rahman
ISBN : 978-93-86370-48-8
Price : Rs.5000/-
Printed in India
An Analysis of Assembly Constituencies
Election Results of
HIMACHAL PRADESH
for Assembly Election 2012 & Assembly
Segment of Parliamentary Election 2014
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
iv ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
PREFACE
Himachal Pradesh, the land of natural beauty, hill stations, and temples has one of the highest proportions
of Hindu population in India, i.e. 95.17%. Prominent national political parties namely the INC and the BJP
are blowing the poll bugle in Himachal Pradesh for the upcoming assembly elections to be held in the late
2017. Interestingly, from the very beginning the politics of the state is mainly revolves around the INC and
the BJP. Even the political scenario of the hill state is also quite different since no single party, i.e. neither the
INC nor the BJP have a second consecutive term from the year 1985. The BJP will try hard to close 2017
with a victory in this hill state like the Uttarakhand, in the run up to a clutch of assembly polls in 2018 and
general elections the next year i.e. 2019. This time the INC will make every possible effort to revive its position
by winning the forthcoming Himachal Pradesh assembly election under the leadership of the octogenarian
active politician, Virbhadra Singh who has held the top office in the state for five times in the past. On the
other hand the saffron party will also leave no stone unturned since it desperately want to win the hill state to
move a step closer to their dream of the BJP government across the country. Definitely, in the 2017 assembly
election a tug of war will be start between the two significant national political parties, the BJP and the INC
but these arch rivals both will ensure not to give each other an inch.
Most of the time it is observed that the demographic composition of a constituency comprising its population
by religious group, caste and literacy therein, reservation nature of the constituency and its location in rural
or urban areas affects the election results significantly. The importance of the election data can never be
neglected since every political party, pressure group, political analyst, political scholars and individual are
interested in the election results so that they can easily chalk out the weak and strong regions of the political
parties, candidate performance in their constituency, impact of demographic profiles, loss and gains of
legislative seats, vote difference and swings of votes among the contesting political parties.
This report has been made by keeping into consideration the usefulness of analysis of the past election result
with linking of socio-religious profile of AC arises in a wider prospective in the contemporary era for the pre
election readiness by the analysis of previous election results. In it thematic maps has been used to put up a
detail insight report of the state assembly election results and the assembly segments of the parliamentary
election since these maps are recognised as the most excellent method to present the sea of information
at a glance. The unique feature of this report is its notable attempt to analyse the variables of the last
assembly result 2012 and the assembly segment in Parliamentary election 2014 comparatively, so that the
readers can have a crystal clear picture of the changing situations of the Himachal Pradesh elections in the
forthcoming Assembly election 2017.
This report of analysis is divided into nine chapters, leading from the basic features of Assembly constituencies,
demographic profile of the state, electoral features, election results and analysis of results, vote difference
and swings, state level time series comparison, top ten ranking of assembly constituencies and candidates
and the supporting datasheets.
This report is a reader oriented one and mainly aimed at serving as a pre-election reference book which
would be resourceful for politicians, policy makers, researchers, psephologists, media professionals and
academia that have interest in election politics of Indian states.
ElectionsinIndia.com v
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
RR Turnout :-
YY Himachal Pradesh voters turnout was 64.42% in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 72.69% in 2012 Assembly
Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, maximum voters turnout was 75.06% in Paonta Sahib AC under Shimla (SC) PC and Doon
AC has 89.01% in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, minimum voters turnout was 53.53%in Karsog (SC) AC under Mandi PC and Shimla AC has
59.21% in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY As much as 65.46% of female and 63.43% of male voters in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 76.20% of
female and 69.39% of male voters in 2012 Assembly Election exercised their franchise.
YY Assembly Election 2012 have seen the second highest voters-turnout in the state since first assembly election with 72.69%
of the electorate casting vote. The previous highest was 74.51% recorded in 2003 Assembly Election.
YY In the previous Assembly Election held in 2012, voters turnout was 72.69%. In absolute numbers, out of the total 4810071
electors, 3092923 people cast their vote in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Candidates :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the total 38 candidates contested the election as compared with 459 candidates in 2012
Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 12 candidates contested from Kangra PC while maximum
number of 16 candidates contested from Dehra AC in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 7 candidates contested from Shimla PC while the minimum
number of 3 candidates contested from Churah AC and Nadaun AC in 2012 Assembly Election.
RR Election Results :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 35500 votes secured by Ram Swaroop Sharma (BJP) in
Jogindernagar AC under Mandi PC as compared with 35341 votes in 2012 Assembly Election by Krishan Lal Thakur (BJP)
in Nalagarh AC.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 12 votes secured by BMUP candidate Devender Dev in Lahaul
& Spiti (ST) AC under Mandi PC as compared with19 votes secured by LJP candidate Gurdassin Lahaul & Spiti (ST) AC in
2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 8127 votes secured by a winner Pratibha Singh (INC) in Lahaul
& Spiti (ST) AC under Mandi PC as compared with 10187 votes in 2012 Assembly Election by Ravi Thakur (INC) in Lahaul &
Spiti (ST) AC.
YY Jogindernagar AC under Mandi PC with 19911 votes (Winner 35500 votes, Runner-up 15589 votes) has the maximum
vi ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
winning margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Rohru (SC) AC with 28415 votes (Winner-34465 votes,
Runner-up-6050 votes) in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY Kullu AC under Mandi PC with 368 votes (Winner 22473 votes, Runner-up 22105 votes) has the minimum winning margin
in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Kasauli (SC) AC with 24 votes (Winner 19960 votes, Runner-up 19936
votes) in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY More than 29 thousand voters, (0.94%) chose NOTA in 2014 Parliamentary Election and in 2 Assembly constituencies,
NOTA were the third choice of voters.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 4 candidate won among 14 candidates fielded by National parties as compared to 62
won among 237 candidates in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, not a single candidate won among 13 candidates fielded by state parties and un-
recognised registered parties as compared to 1 won among 117 candidates fielded by state parties and un-recognised
registered parties in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, not a single candidate won among 11 Independent candidates contested as compared
with 5 won among 105 Independent candidates contested in 2012 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 38 candidates contested the Election and an average number of contestants per seat
were 10 as compared with 459 candidates contested in Assembly Election 2012 and an average contestants per seat
were 7 contestants.
RR Polarity of Parties :-
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, Single-party dominated ACs were 2, out of which both seats won by INC. While amongst 3
single-party dominated ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election, all seats won by BJP.
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, the numbers of Bi-polar ACs were 44 and major contest on 41 seats was between BJP-INC,
out of which 24 &18 seats won by INC and BJP respectively, while amongst 65 Bi-polar ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election
major contest was between BJP-INC, out of which 56 and 09 seats won by BJP & INC respectively.
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, the numbers of Tri-polar ACs were 17and contest was among BJP-INC-IN Don 14 seats, out of
which 8 & 7 seats won by INC and BJP respectively, while in 2014 Parliamentary Election, there is no Tri-polar ACs.
YY In 2012 Assembly Election, out of 5 Multi-polar ACs 2, 1, 1 & 1 seat won by INC, BJP, HLP and IND respectively, while in 2014
Parliamentary Election, there is no Multi-polar AC.
RR Social Groups :-
YY By general-reserved break up, Scheduled Castes Reserved, Scheduled Tribes Reserved, Scheduled Castes dominated,
Scheduled Tribes dominated and General ACs are 17, 3, 54, 5and 48 respectively.
YY Out of17 SC reserved constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 10 in 2012 Assembly Election to 3 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election, while those won by BJP increased from 6 in 2012 Assembly Election to 14 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 3 ST reserved constituencies, all 3 seats won by INC in 2012 Assembly Election and in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 54 SC dominated constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 27 & 3 in 2012 Assembly Election to 5 & 0 in
2014 Parliamentary Election, while those seats won by BJP increased from 23 in 2012 Assembly Election to 49 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 5 ST dominated constituencies, seats won by INC and BJP remained same 3 & 2 respectively in 2012 Assembly
Election and in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 48 unreserved (general) constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 23 & 4 in 2012 Assembly Election to 3
& 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 20 in 2012 Assembly Election to 45 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
ElectionsinIndia.com vii
v
RR Religious Groups :-
YY Hindu and Buddhist dominated ACs are 66 and 2 respectively.
YY Out of 66 Hindu-dominated constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 34 & 5 in 2012 Assembly Election to 7 &
0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 26 in 2012 Assembly Election to 59 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 2 Buddhist-dominated constituencies, both seats won by INC in 2012 Assembly Election and in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
RR Rural-urban break-up :-
YY Rural, Urban and Rural + Urban assembly ACs are 48, 1and 19 respectively.
YY Out of 48 Rural constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 26 & 2 in 2012 Assembly Election to 8 & 0 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those all won by BJP increased from 20 in 2012 Assembly Election to 40 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
YY 1 Urban constituency, seat won by BJP in 2012 Assembly Election and in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 19 Rural + Urban constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 10 & 3 in 2012 Assembly Election to 1& 0 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 5 in 2012 Assembly Election to 18 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
06 Estimated Population 12
54-55 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 2000 Votes 66-67
56-57 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 2000 to 5000 Votes 68-69
58-59 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5000 to 10000 Votes 70-71
60-61 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10000 to 20000 Votes 72-73
62-63 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 20000 Votes 74-75
66-67 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 5% Votes 78-79
68-69 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5% to 10% Votes 80-81
70-71 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10% to 15% Votes 82-83
72-73 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 15% to 25% Votes 84-85
x ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
74-75 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 25% Votes 86-87
76-77 NOTA Votes are more than Winning Margin and Winner & Runner-up therein 88-89
84-85 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Above Average Poll Percentage 96-97
86-87 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Below Average Poll Percentage 98-99
88-89 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Hindu Dominated ACs 100-101
90-91 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Buddhist Dominated ACs 102-103
92-93 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Dominated ACs 104-105
94-95 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Reserved ACs 106-107
96-97 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Dominated ACs 108-109
98-99 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Reserved ACs 110-111
100-101 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Unreserved (General) ACs 112-113
106-107 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Rural + Urban ACs 118-119
108-109 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against BJP 122-123
110-111 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against INC 124-125
112-113 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against INC 126-127
114-115 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against BJP 128-129
ElectionsinIndia.com xi
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
Top Ten Assembly Constituencies with Highest and Lowest Poll Percentage 136
Top Ten Winner Candidates Secured Highest and Lowest Numbers of Votes 137
Top Ten Winner Candidates with Highest and Lowest Acceptance in Total Electors 138
Top Ten Candidate with Highest and Lowest Winning Vote Margin 139
I. Data Information
J. Annexure
Disclaimer 161
xii ElectionsinIndia.com
A
Basic Features of Assembly
Constituencies
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
2011
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Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com 43
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com 65
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
Map No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Parliamentary Estd. % Estd. Estd.
Number and Name District-wise Res. Rural, Urban Estd. % Estd.
Constituency of Hindu Buddhist Estd. SC
of AC Distribution of and and Estd. Pop. - of Rural Religious
wise Urban Pop. - Pop. - Pop. (In
Assembly Unres. Rural+Urban 2011 Pop. - Dominance*
Distribution of Pop. - 2011 2011 %)
No. of AC Name of AC Constituencies AC AC 2011 - 2011
AC 2011 (In %) (In %)
1 Churah (SC) Chamba Kangra SC Rural 102921 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
2 Bharmour (ST) Chamba Mandi ST Rural 99665 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
3 Chamba Chamba Kangra GEN Rural+Urban 113631 82 18 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
4 Dalhousie Chamba Kangra GEN Rural+Urban 103682 90 10 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
5 Bhattiyat Chamba Kangra GEN Rural 99181 94 6 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
6 Nurpur Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 109001 91 9 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
7 Indora (SC) Kangra Kangra SC Rural 109704 96 4 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
8 Fatehpur Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 101087 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
9 Jawali Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 112746 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
10 Dehra Kangra Hamirpur GEN Rural 88548 95 5 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
11 Jaswan-Pragpur Kangra Hamirpur GEN Rural 84965 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
12 Jawalamukhi Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 91028 94 6 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
13 Jaisinghpur (SC) Kangra Kangra SC Rural 84820 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
14 Sullah Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 113134 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
15 Nagrota Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 102688 94 6 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
16 Kangra Kangra Kangra GEN Rural+Urban 97568 90 10 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
17 Shahpur Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 105698 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
18 Dharamshala Kangra Kangra GEN Rural+Urban 112437 62 38 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
19 Palampur Kangra Kangra GEN Rural 93810 96 4 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
20 Baijnath (SC) Kangra Kangra SC Rural 102841 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
21 Lahaul & Spiti (ST) Lahaul & Spiti Mandi ST Rural 31564 100 0 B 20-50 50-80 0-20
22 Manali Kullu Mandi GEN Rural 107482 92 8 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
23 Kullu Kullu Mandi GEN Rural+Urban 121027 74 26 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
24 Banjar Kullu Mandi GEN Rural 99388 99 1 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
25 Anni (SC) Kullu Mandi SC Rural 110006 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
26 Karsog (SC) Mandi Mandi SC Rural 93126 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
27 Sundernagar Mandi Mandi GEN Rural+Urban 102401 76 24 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
28 Nachan (SC) Mandi Mandi SC Rural 105170 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
29 Seraj Mandi Mandi GEN Rural 106402 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
30 Darang Mandi Mandi GEN Rural 113436 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
31 Jogindernagar Mandi Mandi GEN Rural 110302 95 5 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
32 Dharampur Mandi Hamirpur GEN Rural 82832 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
33 Mandi Mandi Mandi GEN Rural+Urban 91262 71 29 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
34 Balh (SC) Mandi Mandi SC Rural 96354 98 2 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
35 Sarkaghat Mandi Mandi GEN Rural 98492 95 5 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
36 Bhoranj (SC) Hamirpur Hamirpur SC Rural 88093 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
37 Sujanpur Hamirpur Hamirpur GEN Rural+Urban 82162 90 10 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
38 Hamirpur Hamirpur Hamirpur GEN Rural+Urban 88340 80 20 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
39 Barsar Hamirpur Hamirpur GEN Rural 93177 98 2 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
40 Nadaun Hamirpur Hamirpur GEN Rural 102996 96 4 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
41 Chintpurni (SC) Una Hamirpur SC Rural 102404 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
42 Gagret Una Hamirpur GEN Rural 102100 93 7 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
43 Haroli Una Hamirpur GEN Rural 104262 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
44 Una Una Hamirpur GEN Rural+Urban 110650 66 34 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
45 Kutlehar Una Hamirpur GEN Rural 101757 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
46 Jhanduta (SC) Bilaspur Hamirpur SC Rural 91562 97 3 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
47 Ghumarwin Bilaspur Hamirpur GEN Rural 100832 92 8 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
48 Bilaspur Bilaspur Hamirpur GEN Rural+Urban 98609 86 14 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
49 Sri Naina Deviji Bilaspur Hamirpur GEN Rural 90953 99 1 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
50 Arki Solan Shimla (SC) GEN Rural 113850 97 3 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
51 Nalagarh Solan Shimla (SC) GEN Rural 126643 92 8 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
52 Doon Solan Shimla (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 115436 74 26 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
53 Solan (SC) Solan Shimla (SC) SC Rural+Urban 119496 67 33 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
54 Kasauli (SC) Solan Shimla (SC) SC Rural+Urban 104895 82 18 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
55 Pachhad (SC) Sirmour Shimla (SC) SC Rural 102799 97 3 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
56 Nahan Sirmour Shimla (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 116465 75 25 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
57 Sri Renukaji (SC) Sirmour Shimla (SC) SC Rural 96628 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
58 Paonta Sahib Sirmour Shimla (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 116668 78 22 H* 50-80 0-20 0-20
59 Shillai Sirmour Shimla (SC) GEN Rural 97295 100 0 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
60 Chopal Shimla Shimla (SC) GEN Rural 103047 98 2 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
61 Theog Shimla Shimla (SC) GEN Rural 103697 95 5 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
62 Kasumpti Shimla Shimla (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 106257 55 45 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
63 Shimla Shimla Shimla (SC) GEN Urban 104113 0 100 H 80-100 0-20 0-20
64 Shimla Rural Shimla Shimla (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 100464 78 22 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
65 Jubbal-Kotkhai Shimla Shimla (SC) GEN Rural 90648 97 3 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
66 Rampur (SC) Shimla Mandi SC Rural+Urban 103780 90 10 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
67 Rohru (SC) Shimla Shimla (SC) SC Rural 102004 93 7 H 80-100 0-20 20-50
68 Kinnaur (ST) Kinnaur Mandi ST Rural 84121 100 0 B 50-80 20-50 0-20
Note : * : H : Hindu with above 80% population.
H* : Less than 80% but Hindus have the largest population without having notable presence of Minorities.
B : Buddhist with above 20% population.
Rural : Rural population above 90%.
Urban : Urban population above 90%.
Rural+Urban: AC neither have Rural nor Urban population above 90%.
142 ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Himachal Pradesh : 2012 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
ISBN
ISBN 938059097-0
: 978-93-80590-97-4
9 789380 590974