S5-2b-GRIP Understanding Risk Assessment PDF

Disaster Risk Assessment:
Understanding the Process
Dr. Jianping Yan

Disaster Risk Assessment Specialist
Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agriculture Sector Ljubljana, Slovenia, Sept.20-24, 2010
GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org
Session Outline
What is Risk Assessment?

What are the issues & challenges?
How to design a disaster risk
assessment?
What is Risk Assessment?
Risk assessment is a multi-disciplinary process, rather

than an activity, that allows for the identification,
quantification and understanding of the nature and
extent, and impacts of the risks a community or
society is facing, which are associated with
unanticipated extreme events and the vulnerability of
the exposed community or society.
Risk assessment is an integral part of decision/policy

making processes and its implementation should
involve and require close collaboration among all the
sectors of society.
Generalized Risk Management Framework
EMA (2004)
Risk Treatment
Communication/Dialogue
Monitoring/Review
Risk Evaluation
Risk Analysis
Context Definition
Risk Assessment Process
(ISDR, 2004)
Risk Identification
Risk Analysis
Hazard: Determine geographic location, extent, intensity,
probability;
Exposure: Inventory of elements at risk;
Vulnerability: Determine susceptibility, resilience, coping
Risk Assessment
capacity
Risk Profiling
Risk Evaluation
Risk Evaluation
Establishment of acceptable levels of risk
Elaboration of risk scenarios and measures
Social & economic cost/effective analysis
Establishment of priorities
Risk-based Decision Making
(USCG)
Context Definition
Problem statement
Decision making
Needs and requirements for information
Scientific conventions & criteria
Question: What decision needs to be made?

Requirements: Clear definition
Outputs: Scope & context
Risk Analysis
Hazard characterization
Exposure assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Loss/impact assessment
Disaster risk profiling
Question: What can happen?

Requirements: Facts
Outputs: Disaster risk profiles
How to Understand Risk?
Understanding
Risk
How likely is What can What are the

it? happen? impacts?
Risk Assessment Foundation

Historic Analytic Knowledge &
experience methods intuition
(Source: Mitchell, 2004)
Risk Evaluation
Concern assessment
Risk perceptions
Socio-economic concerns & impacts
Situation assessment
Risk acceptability & tolerability
Needs for and capacity of risk reduction
Question: What may happen?

Requirements: Judgement & valuation
Outputs: Acceptable and tolerable risks
Risk Evaluation
Informal risk evaluation Formal risk evaluation

By individuals By authorized experts
Laws, safety norm &

Risk perception
economic principles
Individual acceptance Expert acceptance
Integration of public needs

Sources: Bell et al. (2005) & Heinmann (2002).
Risk Treatment
Identification of all possible measures

Cost-effectiveness analysis of all
measures
Establishing priorities
- Question: What can be done?

- Requirements: Actions needed
- Outputs: DRR measures
Risk Treatment
Category Measures
Total original risk
Tolerable risk level
Acceptable risk level
Risk Treatment
Category Measures
Policy,
Risk regulations,
prevention land use
planning
Total original risk
Risk Treatment
Category Measures
Policy,
Risk regulations,
prevention land use
planning
Total original risk
Technical
Risk
Measures,
Reduction Preparedness
Risk Treatment
Category Measures
Policy,
Risk regulations,
prevention land use
planning
Total original risk
Technical
Risk
Measures,
Risk
Insurance
Transfer
Risk Treatment
Category Measures
Policy,
Risk regulations,
prevention land use
planning
Total original risk
Technical
Risk
Measures,
Residual risk Risk

Insurance
Transfer
Tolerable risk level Living with
Risk Risk with or
Acceptable risk level Without
Retention
caution
Key Requirements for Risk Reduction
As low as reasonably possible (ALARP)

Technically feasibly and economically
reasonable
Cost-effective
Uncertainties should be as small as
possible
Sustainable
Quantifiable effects of measures
Cost-Effective Risk Reduction
Levels of Decision Making
Examples
National DRR Strategy

Policy & regulation
Strategic
- DRM Programming
- Budget Allocation
Programmatic
- DRR measures
Project and Operational - Action plan
- Development planning
Levels of Risk Assessment
Level Purposes
Detail Uncertainty
National strategy, policy,
L1:
L1: National
National Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment Regulation, budget
allocation, programming
Contingency & recovery

L2:
L2: Local
Local Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment planning, DRR action plan,
Land use planning
Risk awareness,
L3:
L3: Community
Community Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment disaster preparedness
Facility safety,
L4:
L4: Object
Object Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment Critical infrastructure
protection
Issues in Risk Assessment
Risk assessment is not being utilized in decision making

processes. Many activities and projects are implemented, and
many resources utilized, without even knowing if they are solving
the problem or not. In many cases, they may be even worsening
the situation.
End users, the people and institutions that would actually be

implementing DRR actions, are not involved in the risk
assessment process. They are not able to provide their inputs in
the diagnosis and the development of solutions but, more
importantly, they have no opportunity to understand the problem
and the effectiveness of the risk reduction options. As a result,
there is no utilization of the risk assessment studies.
Issues in Risk Assessment
There are no sustainable mechanisms. Risk assessment, when

done, is considered a one-time effort, forgetting its vital role in
tracking the effectiveness and progress of DRR programmes. As a
result, there is no way to show the impact of DRR investments and
justify the continuation of those investments.
The local capacity needed to ensure validity of the assessments,

effectiveness of the solutions, and sustainability of DRR
programmes is lacking. Consequently, external consultants
unfamiliar with local realities produce reports that nobody
understands, takes ownership or applies. Local capacity
development should be the first priority of any risk assessment
project.
Challenges in Risk Assessment
Different understanding of the concept of

risk
Different understanding of risk
assessment
Data and information integration
Capacity of coordination
Urgent demand for risk information
Design a DRA Project
Scope and Context

Implication on DRR
Target Groups
Partners and Stakeholders
Implementation Strategies
Typical outputs
Indicative Activities
Specific M&E Considerations
Useful tools and resources
Useful Tools & Resources
To better understand the thematic area

Risk Identification and Assessment, please
visit GRIP site: http://www.gripweb.org.
To better design thematic area specific

interventions, please refer to the following
materials that are available upon request.
Booklet on GRIP service package
Concept paper on GRIP country support
Concept notes on National Risk Assessment
Framework
Useful Tools & Resources (cont.)
Template ToRs for SIERA, NRA, NDO, URA
projects
Guidelines for implementing NRA, NDO, and URA
Concept notes on national workshops on SIERA,
NRA, NDO
Sample applications of risk assessment
National DRR strategy
Urban planning
Pre-disaster shelter planning
Climate change adaptation
Poverty - disaster nexus
Methodologies
RAIDUS tool
Flood Risk Assessment Tool
SIERA methodology
National disaster coding system
Hazard categorization and definition
Summary
Risk assessment is an integral part of

decision making process.
Risk assessment is a 2-step process

risk analysis and risk evaluation.
A principle of RA is that it is better to be

roughly right than exactly wrong.
Any Questions?

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Disaster Risk Assessment:

Understanding the Process

Dr. Jianping Yan

What is Risk Assessment?

Risk assessment is a multi-disciplinary process, rather

Risk assessment is an integral part of decision/policy

Question: What decision needs to be made?

Question: What can happen?

How likely is What can What are the

Risk Assessment Foundation

Question: What may happen?

Informal risk evaluation Formal risk evaluation

Laws, safety norm &

Individual acceptance Expert acceptance

Integration of public needs

Identification of all possible measures

- Question: What can be done?

Tolerable risk level

Acceptable risk level

Tolerable risk level

Acceptable risk level

Tolerable risk level

Acceptable risk level

Acceptable risk level

Residual risk Risk

As low as reasonably possible (ALARP)

National DRR Strategy

Contingency & recovery

Risk assessment is not being utilized in decision making

End users, the people and institutions that would actually be

There are no sustainable mechanisms. Risk assessment, when

The local capacity needed to ensure validity of the assessments,

Different understanding of the concept of

Scope and Context

To better understand the thematic area

To better design thematic area specific

Risk assessment is an integral part of

Risk assessment is a 2-step process

A principle of RA is that it is better to be

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