1.

1Introduction to Chance Models

Statistical significance: unlikely to occur due to random chance.

Plausible: if an event can happen due to random chance.

Sample: observational units on which we collect data.

Sample size: how many observational units are in the sample.

Sample size= 16

Parameter: long run numerical property

Flipping a coin: 50%

Randomly guessing on a four- choice multiple choice question= 25%

Average hours of sleep American adults get per night =?

Statistic: numerical summary of the sample

Random sample of 1,031 American adults showed they got an average of 6.8

hours of sleep per night.

Statistic comes from sample (known value)

Parameter comes from Population (unknown value)

Chance Model: generate data for simulation purposes

3S Strategy:

statistic:

simulate: repeat simulated values of statistic under the chance model (value

believed to be true).
Strength of evidence: how unusual statistic is.

If statistic is unlikely not occurring due to chance.

If statistic is not unlikely=> chance model is plausible.

Doris and buzz example:

Reaserachers wanted to test if dolphins could communicate with each other and

tested it by putting two buttons each in a pool for Doris and Buzz. When the

researcher turned on a headlight, it signaled them to press the right button and

whne the researcher turned it on and off, it signaled them to press the left button.

Afterwards, they were trained so that Doris pressed the button first and then buzz.

To see if they could communicate, they put a curtain in the pool so only Doris

could see the headlight and Doris had to communicate with buzz to press the

correct button.

Step 1: ask a research question: can dolphins communicate?

Step 2 : design a study and collect data

Observational units: buzzs attempts

Variable result/did buzz press the correct button

Step 3: (explore the data): Buzz pushed the correct button 16 out of 28 times

(57%).

Step 4 : (draw inference) 0.268> 0.05 so its plausible

if something happens more than 5% of the time it is plausible. If something

happens less than 5 % its unlikely.

Step 5 (Formulate Conclusions): its plausible buzz is just guessing

Step 6 : ( look back and ahead).