3 13 27

33 37

20164
II
20164

( Joseph Luc Ngai ) l

( John Qu ) l
( Nicole Zhou ) l
( Vincent Zheng ) l
( Lisa Tsai ) l


13

13

18

23

27

27

29

29

30

33

33

33

34

37
VI


201530
20073GDP290%
2015
12744431816
1.67%0.410

30%

30%
25%

1
2


2015

2009GDP20156.9%
20155.2%15
20091

1

GDP (1996-2015)

GDP

30

25

20

15

10

-10
2000 03 06 09 12 2015

WMM,

3

20162016
6.5%7%
201623.31
12.6%1.9613.1%1.3511.8%

2015
GDP 200772015
302007GDP158%2015GDP

290% 290%2
2018400%/GDP

GDP290%
GDP

2015

290

51
51 132 39 68 290

158 132 34 70 116 58 279

121 42
23 90 68 76 36 270
72 39
83
20 68 81 54 54 70 260
7 8 24

2000 2007 2015 Q2 69 62 92 25 249

1.9 6.9 30.0

4


GDP200023%201551%

2015 201512744
431850%161.67%
0.08103

12744
2015

70021.66%0.432%
71%4

2015
1.60%431.68%
575

2010-15

14 1.7 1.8
1.6
12
1.3 1.4
10
1.1 1.2
1.0 1.0 1.0
8 1.0

6 12.7 0.8
0.6
4 8.4
5.9 0.4
4.3 4.3 4.9
2
0.2
0 0
2010 11 12 13 14 2015

5
 4

2014 2015

+47%

7,002

4,765 +71%
+57%
+42%
2,536
1,619 1,862
855 1,213 1,091 +35%
96 130

2013-2015

1.68
1.7
1.60
1.6
1.56
1.5
1.43
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
13 13 14 14 15 15

6




2015


62015
3.04%6.09%
4.67%7.09%

2015
20152.89
3.79%20140.68%

3.79%
201450%

7

2010-2014


388 2.64%

3,036 2.42%

264

206
2,150
114 129
1,771
2,695 3.05%
1,453 1,454

1,700
549 564 1,071 0.5%
263
440 353 214 0.72%
100 109 279 214
120 129
947 1 0.74%
1,217 1,238 994 824

640 882 0.62%

422 432 487

2010 11 12 13 2014
1 15

7
 7

12011-2014

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2011 12 13 2014

1 =/x100%

8

2011 2013 2015

2012 2014

900
829 828

756 759

606 603
600
527
497
460

387
356
330
300 265 273
230 214 215
174 189
138 136
103 107
85 68

WIND

8

 5-78

(Early Warning SystemEWS)

10

11
12


2


1









3

13


EWS

10

EWS


11

10

14



12

11

0-1

/1

ID x x

12345 0.76

50065 0.75

32584 0.68 X%

45788 0.68
X X X X
14541 0.65
16325 0.61
35874 0.61 0%
25462 0.55
22542 0.53 X X X X
36854 0.40 X
99845 0.32

12542 0.07
88547 0.06 /

12

/









/





/

15


13

13

1

/

2


3

16



2012
20122011230

2013
1000

31%11%2014
24%7%14

14

2014(1)2013


1000

-11%

-31%

1 20141

17


15

15

/



...

16

18

 16

/
/

17

18

70%
(:/)30%(
)19

20

19
 17

b


c

e


f 1

18


/





/

/

/
/
/

20

 19

KPI

KPI - 90
70%
90

(0

1-9090

KPI -
90
30%

20

+

-
1

30%

60-75%
2
25-40%




1
3

4 25%

21





2321

21


1

2
90+

+40-50%
+20-30%

Text

// 2

x3.3
KPI x2.0

1
2

22


22

22

IT
CRM

NPL analyzer

23

23
 24
23

(
)
(

)

(
/




)

SOURCE: McKinsey Risk Practice - Collections Service Line

50
24

25

24

 24

25

25
26


(crash program)

26

:


? (
)

27

20%

20%
6-12

2008


27

20

27
3




2,000 1,908 1,937


1,423 1,453
1,500 1,334
80
1,132

910
9 1,000
3
736
20 +
586
500
426
500
282

127

0
2 16 30 13 4 18 15 14 7 21 5 9 23

3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 11 11

28


()

2008
27.65
2015

29


()

28

28

30



31
32


33


34

 35
36


37


38



800060100

100

Joseph_Luc_Ngai@mckinsey.com John_Qu@mckinsey.com

Nicole_Zhou@mckinsey.com Vincent_Zheng@mckinsey.com

Lisa_Tsai@mckinsey.com

39

20164
Copyright McKinsey & Company
Design contact: GCO NewMedia
www.mckinseychina.com