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Bodie 7e 05
Bodie 7e 05
RISKAVERSIONANDCAPITALALLOCATIONTORISKY
ASSETS
1. a. Theexpectedcashflowis:(0.5x$70,000)+(0.5x200,000)=$135,000
Withariskpremiumof8%overtheriskfreerateof6%,therequiredrateofreturnis
14%.Therefore,thepresentvalueoftheportfoliois:
$135,000/1.14=$118,421
b. Iftheportfolioispurchasedfor$118,421,andprovidesanexpectedcashinflowof
$135,000,thentheexpectedrateofreturn[E(r)]isderivedasfollows:
$118,421x[1+E(r)]=$135,000
Therefore,E(r)=14%.Theportfoliopriceissettoequatetheexpectedrateorreturn
withtherequiredrateofreturn.
c. IftheriskpremiumoverTbillsisnow12%,thentherequiredreturnis:
6%+12%=18%
Thepresentvalueoftheportfolioisnow:
$135,000/1.18=$114,407
d. Foragivenexpectedcashflow,portfoliosthatcommandgreaterriskpremiamustsell
atlowerprices.Theextradiscountfromexpectedvalueisapenaltyforrisk.
2. WhenwespecifyutilitybyU=E(r).005A2, theutilityfrombillsis7%,whilethat
fromtheriskyportfolioisU=12.005Ax182 =121.62A.Fortheportfoliotobe
preferredtobills,thefollowinginequalitymusthold:121.62A>7,or,
A<5/1.62=3.09.Amustbelessthan3.09fortheriskyportfoliotobepreferredtobills.
3. Pointsonthecurvearederivedasfollows:
U=5=E(r).005A2 =E(r).0152
ThenecessaryvalueofE(r),giventhevalueof2, istherefore:
2
E(r)
0% 0 5.0%
5 25 5.375
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10 100 6.5
15 225 8.375
20 400 11.0
25 625 14.375
Theindifferencecurveisdepictedbytheboldlineinthefollowinggraph(labeled
Q3,forQuestion3).
4. RepeatingtheanalysisinProblem3,utilityis:
leadingtotheequalutilitycombinationsofexpectedreturnandstandarddeviation
presentedinthetablebelow.Theindifferencecurveistheupwardslopinglineappearing
inthegraphofProblem
3,labeledQ4(for
Question4).
E(r) U(Q4,A=4)
U(Q3,A=3)
2
E(r)
0%
0
4.00%
5
25
5
4.50 U(Q5,A=0)
10
4
100
6.00
15
225
8.50
20 U(Q6,A<0)
400
12.00
25
625 16.50
TheindifferencecurveinProblem4differsfromthatinProblem3inbothslopeand
52
intercept.WhenAincreasesfrom3to4,thehigherriskaversionresultsinagreater
slopefortheindifferencecurvesincemoreexpectedreturnisneededtocompensatefor
additional . ThelowerlevelofutilityassumedforProblem4(4%ratherthan5%),
shiftstheverticalinterceptdownby1%.
5. Thecoefficientofriskaversionofariskneutralinvestoriszero.Thecorresponding
utilityissimplyequaltotheportfolio'sexpectedreturn.Thecorrespondingindifference
curveintheexpectedreturnstandarddeviationplaneisahorizontalline,drawninthe
graphofProblem3,andlabeledQ5.
6. Arisklover,ratherthanpenalizingportfolioutilitytoaccountforrisk,derivesgreater
utilityasvarianceincreases.Thisamountstoanegativecoefficientofriskaversion.The
correspondingindifferencecurveisdownwardsloping,asdrawninthegraphofProblem
3,andlabeledQ6.
7. 3.[Utilityforeachportfolio=E(r).005x4x 2. Wechoosetheportfoliowiththe
highestutilityvalue.)
8. 4.[Wheninvestorsareriskneutral,A=0,andtheportfoliowiththehighestutilityisthe
onewiththehighestexpectedreturn.]
9. b
10. Theportfolioexpectedreturncanbecomputedasfollows:
Portfolio Portfolio
Wbills x + Wmarket x = standard deviation
_______________________________________________________________(=w x17.12%)___
market
53
Wbills Wmarket E(r) 2 U(A=3)
U(A=5)
___________________________________________________________________
TheutilitycolumnimpliesthatinvestorswithA=3willpreferapositionof60%in
themarketand40%inbillsoveranyoftheotherpositionsinthetable;thosewith
A=5willprefer20%inthemarketand80%inbills.
12. ThecolumnlabeledU(A=5)inthetableaboveiscomputedfromU=E(r).005 A2 =
E(r) .0252 (sinceA=5).Itshowsthatthemoreriskaverseinvestorswillpreferthe
positionwith20%inthemarketindexportfolio,ratherthanthe40%marketweight
preferredbyinvestorswithA=3.
13. Expectedreturn= .38% + .718% = 15%peryear.
Standarddeviation = .728% = 19.6%
Client'srewardtovariabilityratio = = .3571
16.
54
30
25
CA L (Slope = .3571)
20
E(r) P
15
% Client
10
0
0 10 20 30 40
Iftheexpectedreturnoftheportfolioisequalto16%,thensolvingforyweget:
16 = 8 + l0y, and y = = .8
Therefore,togetanexpectedreturnof16%theclientmustinvest80%oftotalfundsin
theriskyportfolioand20%inTbills.
b. Investmentproportionsoftheclient'sfunds:
20%inTbills,
.827% = 21.6% in stock A
.8 33% = 26.4% in stock B
.8 40% = 32.0% in stock C
y=18/28=.6429=64.29%intheriskyportfolio.
55
b. E(rC) = 8 + 10y = 8 + .642910 = 8 + 6.429 = 14.429%
19. a.
y* = = = = .3644
Sotheclient'soptimalproportionsare36.44%intheriskyportfolioand63.56%inT
bills.
Thediagramisonthefollowingpage.
b. Myfundallowsaninvestortoachieveahighermeanforanygivenstandarddeviationthanwoulda
passivestrategy,i.e.,ahigherexpectedreturnforanygivenlevelofrisk.
12
10
CML: Slope = .20
8
6
4
2
0
0 10 20 30
Standard Deviation
21.a. With70%ofhismoneyinmyfund'sportfoliotheclientgetsameanreturnof15%per
56
yearandastandarddeviationof19.6%peryear.Ifheshiftsthatmoneytothepassive
portfolio(whichhasanexpectedreturnof13%andstandarddeviationof25%),his
overallexpectedreturnandstandarddeviationbecome:
Inthiscase,rf=8%andE(rM)=13%.Therefore,
E(rC) = 8 + .7(13 8) = 11.5%
Thestandarddeviationofthecompleteportfoliousingthepassiveportfoliowouldbe:
Therefore,theshiftentailsadeclineinthemeanfrom14%to11.5%andadeclineinthe
standarddeviationfrom19.6%to17.5%.Sincebothmeanreturnandstandarddeviation
fall,itisnotyetclearwhetherthemoveisbeneficialorharmful.Thedisadvantageofthe
shiftisthatifmyclientiswillingtoacceptameanreturnonhistotalportfolioof11.5%,
hecanachieveitwithalowerstandarddeviationusingmyfundportfolio,ratherthanthe
passiveportfolio.Toachieveatargetmeanof11.5%,wefirstwritethemeanofthe
completeportfolioasafunctionoftheproportionsinvestedinmyfundportfolio,y:
Becauseourtargetis:E(rC)=11.5%,theproportionthatmustbeinvestedinmyfundis
determinedasfollows:
b. Thefeewouldreducetherewardtovariabilityratio,i.e.,theslopeoftheCAL.Clients
willbeindifferentbetweenmyfundandthepassiveportfolioiftheslopeoftheafterfee
CALandtheCMLareequal.Letfdenotethefee.
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= .20
22.a. Theformulafortheoptimalproportiontoinvestinthepassiveportfoliois:
y* =
y*==.2286
b. Theanswerhereisthesameasin9b.Thefeethatyoucanchargeaclientisthesame
regardlessoftheassetallocationmixofyourclient'sportfolio.Youcanchargeafeethat
will equalizetherewardtovariability ratio ofyourportfoliowiththatofyour
competition.
E(r)
borrow
lend CAL
CML
P
13
25
24. Forytobelessthan1.0(sothattheinvestorisalender),riskaversionmustbelarge
enoughthat:
58
y= < 1
= 1.28
Forytobegreaterthan1.0(sothattheinvestorisaborrower),riskaversionmustbe
smallenoughthat:
y= > 1
= .64
Forvaluesofriskaversionwithinthisrange,theinvestorneitherborrowsnorlends,but
insteadholdsacompleteportfoliocomprisedonlyoftheoptimalriskyportfolio:
59
E(r)
CML
M
13 F CAL
11
9
15 25
26. The maximum feasible fee, denoted f, depends on the reward-to-variability ratio.
For y < 1, the lending rate, 5%, is viewed as the relevant risk-free rate, and we solve for f
from:
=
f = 6 = 1.2%
For y > 1, the borrowing rate, 9%, is the relevant risk-free rate. Then we notice that even
without a fee, the active fund is inferior to the passive fund because:
More risk tolerant investors (who are more inclined to borrow) therefore will not be
clients of the fund even without a fee. (If you solved for the fee that would make
investors who borrow indifferent between the active and passive portfolio, as we did
above for lending investors, you would find that f is negative: that is, you would need to
pay them to choose your active fund.) The reason is that these investors desire higher
risk-higher returncompleteportfoliosandthusareintheborrowingrangeoftherelevant
CAL.Inthisrangetherewardtovariabilityratiooftheindex(thepassivefund)isbetter
510
thanthatofthemanagedfund.
27.a. If19572009isassumedtoberepresentativeoffutureexpectedperformance,A=2,
E(rM)rf=4.20%,andM=17.74%(weusethestandarddeviationoftheriskpremium
fromthelastcolumnofTable6.8),theny*isgivenby:
y*==4.20/(.01x2x17.742)=.6672
Thatis,66.72%shouldbeallocatedtoequityand33.28%tobills.
b.If19932009isassumedtoberepresentativeoffutureexpectedperformance,A=2,
E(rM)rf=7.56%;andM=18.89%,theny*isgivenby:
y*=7.56/(.01x2x18.892)=1.0593
Therefore,105.93%ofthecompleteportfolioisallocatedtoequityand5.93%tobills.
c. In(a)themarketriskpremiumisexpectedtobelowerwhilethemarketriskisexpected
tobeatalowerlevelthanin(b).Thefactthattherewardtovariabilityratioisexpected
tobemuchlowerin(a)(4.20/17.74=0.2368)versus7.56/18.89=0.40)explainsthemuch
smallerproportioninvestedinequity.
28. Assumingnochangeintastes,thatis,anunchangedriskaversioncoefficient,A,the
denominatoroftheequationfortheoptimalinvestmentintheriskyportfoliowillbe
higher.Theproportioninvestedintheriskyportfoliowilldependontherelativechange
intheexpectedriskpremium(thenumerator)comparedtothechangeintheperceived
marketrisk.Investorsperceivinghigherriskwilldemandahigherriskpremiumtohold
thesameportfoliotheyheldbefore.Ifweassumethattheriskfreerateisunaffected,the
increaseintheriskpremiumwouldrequireahigherexpectedrateofreturnintheequity
market.
29. Theexpectedreturnofyourfund=Tbillrate+riskpremium=6%+10%=16%.
Theexpectedreturnoftheclient'soverallportfoliois.616%+.46%=12%.
Thestandarddeviationoftheclient'soverallportfoliois.614%=8.4%.
30. Rewardtovariabilityratio===.71.
31. [.650,000+.4(30,000)5,000=13,000]
32. b
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33. a)Curve2
b)PointF
Appendix5A
1. Your$50,000investmentwillgrowto$50,000(1.06)=$53,000byyearend.Without
insuranceyourwealthwillthenbe:
Probability Wealth
No fire: .999 $253,000
Fire: .001 $ 53,000
whichgivesexpectedutility
andacertaintyequivalentwealthof
exp(12.439582)=$252,604.85
Withfireinsuranceatacostof$P,yourinvestmentintheriskfreeassetwillbeonly
$(50,000P).Youryearendwealthwillbecertain(sinceyouarefullyinsured)andequalto
(50,000P)x1.06+200,000.
Settingthisexpressionequalto$252,604.85(thecertaintyequivalentoftheuninsuredhouse)
resultsinP=$372.78.Thisisthemostyouwillbewillingtopayforinsurance.Notethat
theexpectedlossis"only"$200,meaningthatyouarewillingtopayquiteariskpremium
overtheexpectedvalueoflosses.Themainreasonisthatthevalueofthehouseisalarge
proportionofyourwealth.
2.a. With1/2coverage,yourpremiumis$100,yourinvestmentinthesafeassetis$49,900
whichgrowsbyyearendto$52,894.Ifthereisafire,yourinsuranceproceedsareonly
$100,000.Youroutcomewillbe:
Probability Wealth
Fire .001 $152,894
No fire .999 $252,894
Expectedutilityis
512
.001xloge(152,894) + .999xloge(252,894) = 12.440222
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