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Perhitungan Ekuitas PKT-r6
Perhitungan Ekuitas PKT-r6
Penjualan
Hasil Penjualan 9,953,073 11,664,500 16,511,771
Pendapatan Subsidi 6,277,375 3,592,676 -
Total Penjualan 16,230,448 15,257,175 16,511,771
- - -
1,088,121 1,534,467 3,086,727
Penjualan
Hasil Penjualan 9,953,073 11,664,500 14,879,418
Pendapatan Subsidi 6,277,375 3,592,676 -
Total Penjualan 16,230,448 15,257,175 14,879,418
- - -
- 882,485 - 250,060 554,273
- - 144,111
- 882,485 - 250,060 410,162
PER Model
No Company PER PKT's EPS
1 Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers 10.19 225.82
2 National Fertiliser 13.25 225.82
3 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals 5.31 225.82
4 Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chem 2.72 225.82
5 Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore 18.31 225.82
6 Southern Petrochemical Industries Corporation 0.31 225.82
7 Zuari Agro Chemicals 19.95 225.82
Average 10.01
PBV Model
No Company PBV PKT's Equity Book Value
1 Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers 0.99 2,496.81
2 National Fertiliser 1.19 2,496.81
3 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals 0.67 2,496.81
4 Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chem 0.47 2,496.81
5 Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore 2.36 2,496.81
6 Southern Petrochemical Industries Corporation 0.89 2,496.81
7 Zuari Agro Chemicals 0.85 2,496.81
Average 1.06
PSR Model
No Company PSR PKT's Sales per share
1 Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers 0.34 2,376.73
2 National Fertiliser 0.26 2,376.73
3 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals 0.49 2,376.73
4 Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chem 0.30 2,376.73
5 Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore 0.64 2,376.73
6 Southern Petrochemical Industries Corporation 0.13 2,376.73
7 Zuari Agro Chemicals 0.10 2,376.73
Average 0.32
Expected Price
2,301
2,992
1,200
613
4,135
70
4,505
2,259
Expected Price
2,467
2,981
1,683
1,173
5,892
2,222
2,122
2,649
Expected Price
813
618
1,165
713
1,521
297
238
766
Rekonsiliasi Model
Base Case Optimistic Case Pesimistic Case
No Model Bobot Estimasi Rentang Harga Saham Estimasi Rentang Harga Saham Estimasi Rentang Harga Saham
Harga Harga Harga
Saham Batas Bawah Batas Atas Saham Batas Bawah Batas Atas Saham Batas Bawah Batas Atas
1 DFCFE 60% 2,923 2,704 3,142 3,194 2,954 3,433 2,572 2,379 2,765
2 PER 20% 2,259 2,090 2,429 2,259 2,090 2,429 2,259 2,090 2,429
3 PBV 20% 2,649 2,450 2,847 2,649 2,450 2,847 2,649 2,450 2,847
Rekonsiliasi 2,735 2,530 2,941 2,898 2,681 3,115 2,525 2,336 2,714
Ke = Rf + b (Rm - Rf)
2 National Fertiliser
Date Open High Low Close Adj Close Volume Return
12/31/2014 36.80 40.85 36.05 36.20 34.68 9,690,293
1/31/2015 36.40 42.80 35.00 37.75 36.17 16,626,347 4.28%
2/28/2015 36.60 36.65 25.45 28.10 26.92 6,781,726 -25.56%
3/31/2015 29.55 34.90 27.85 28.55 27.35 10,120,783 1.60%
4/30/2015 28.55 31.50 27.00 27.50 26.35 4,999,316 -3.68%
5/31/2015 27.80 28.40 23.55 26.30 25.20 3,727,019 -4.36%
6/30/2015 26.95 30.35 26.30 27.55 26.40 5,782,196 4.75%
7/31/2015 27.30 29.60 21.95 24.45 23.43 3,267,442 -11.25%
8/31/2015 24.00 26.20 21.15 24.90 23.86 2,271,650 1.84%
9/30/2015 25.65 28.55 25.15 26.15 25.24 3,302,565 5.79%
10/31/2015 25.80 27.95 24.10 27.15 26.20 1,837,116 3.82%
11/30/2015 27.45 31.40 25.70 29.10 28.09 7,094,024 7.18%
12/31/2015 29.50 32.60 25.25 28.35 27.36 7,547,076 -2.58%
1/31/2016 28.50 31.00 23.70 26.85 25.92 5,360,339 -5.29%
2/29/2016 27.30 29.10 26.50 28.30 27.31 4,188,138 5.40%
3/31/2016 28.80 33.20 28.20 29.85 28.81 9,182,868 5.48%
4/30/2016 29.85 35.60 29.30 32.85 31.71 11,300,994 10.05%
5/31/2016 33.10 39.60 30.80 36.70 35.42 11,598,743 11.72%
6/30/2016 36.95 38.40 33.90 34.05 32.86 7,066,106 -7.22%
7/31/2016 34.25 36.30 31.50 33.45 32.29 4,806,857 -1.76%
8/31/2016 33.50 35.85 31.00 33.05 31.90 5,613,123 -1.20%
9/30/2016 33.20 37.00 32.40 34.90 34.90 8,027,743 9.41%
10/31/2016 35.60 36.40 29.50 32.95 32.95 4,124,049 -5.59%
11/30/2016 33.40 38.20 32.15 35.20 35.20 8,838,869 6.83%
12/31/2016 35.50 54.70 34.90 51.50 51.50 41,942,067 46.31%
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4804095355
R Square 0.2307933218
Adjusted R Square 0.1958293819
Standard Error 0.0924730879
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.0564460548 0.0564460548 6.600895733 0.0174963213
Residual 22 0.1881279837 0.008551272
Total 23 0.2445740384
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.000503697 0.0189169625 -0.02662674 0.9789975024 -0.0397350761 0.038727682 -0.0397350761 0.038727682
X Variable 1 0.6877172008 0.2676753939 2.5692208416 0.0174963213 0.1325924105 1.2428419912 0.1325924105 1.2428419912
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3994889307
R Square 0.1595914058
Adjusted R Square 0.1213910151
Standard Error 0.1160946838
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.0563075151 0.0563075151 4.1777427683 0.0531114301
Residual 22 0.2965154632 0.0134779756
Total 23 0.3528229783
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.0201293768 0.0237491667 0.8475824479 0.4057975574 -0.0291233803 0.069382134 -0.0291233803 0.069382134
X Variable 1 0.6868727251 0.336051179 2.0439527314 0.0531114301 -0.0100547644 1.3838002146 -0.0100547644 1.3838002146
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3191485742
R Square 0.1018558124
Adjusted R Square 0.0610310766
Standard Error 0.10063847
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.0252691414 0.0252691414 2.4949533764 0.1284833528
Residual 22 0.2228182362 0.0101281016
Total 23 0.2480873776
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.0084366989 0.020587332 0.409800499 0.6859152504 -0.0342588144 0.0511322123 -0.0342588144 0.0511322123
X Variable 1 0.4601382466 0.2913111556 1.5795421414 0.1284833528 -0.1440041135 1.0642806067 -0.1440041135 1.0642806067
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4017107587
R Square 0.1613715337
Adjusted R Square 0.1232520579
Standard Error 0.1700867423
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.1224675229 0.1224675229 4.2333093661 0.051681737
Residual 22 0.636448998 0.0289294999
Total 23 0.758916521
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.0536416609 0.034794172 1.5416852254 0.1374123325 -0.0185170353 0.125800357 -0.0185170353 0.125800357
X Variable 1 1.0129862662 0.4923382228 2.0575007572 0.051681737 -0.0080607143 2.0340332467 -0.0080607143 2.0340332467
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4567058727
R Square 0.2085802542
Adjusted R Square 0.1726066293
Standard Error 0.0997643657
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.0577085129 0.0577085129 5.7981439251 0.0248679235
Residual 22 0.2189644306 0.0099529287
Total 23 0.2766729435
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.0006535905 0.0204085189 -0.032025378 0.974740587 -0.0429782683 0.0416710872 -0.0429782683 0.0416710872
X Variable 1 0.6953653273 0.2887809469 2.4079335383 0.0248679235 0.096470299 1.2942603557 0.096470299 1.2942603557
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4031481944
R Square 0.1625284667
Adjusted R Square 0.1244615788
Standard Error 0.1247480402
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.0664430452 0.0664430452 4.2695496198 0.0507728486
Residual 22 0.3423656179 0.0155620735
Total 23 0.408808663
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.0061251394 0.0255193597 0.2400193225 0.8125375838 -0.0467987734 0.0590490523 -0.0467987734 0.0590490523
X Variable 1 0.7461357597 0.361099446 2.066288852 0.0507728486 -0.0027386562 1.4950101755 -0.0027386562 1.4950101755
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.5930379702
R Square 0.3516940341
Adjusted R Square 0.3222255811
Standard Error 0.1278433745
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.1950581563 0.1950581563 11.934594401 0.0022564731
Residual 22 0.3595664247 0.0163439284
Total 23 0.5546245811
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.0207852406 0.0261525637 0.7947687617 0.4352386945 -0.0334518568 0.0750223381 -0.0334518568 0.0750223381
X Variable 1 1.2784246855 0.370059294 3.4546482311 0.0022564731 0.5109686821 2.0458806889 0.5109686821 2.0458806889
National Fertiliser
Date Shares Outstanding Price Market Value of Equity Market Value of Debt DER
3/31/2015 490,578,400 33.57 1,647 6,787 412.16%
3/31/2016 490,578,400 26.18 1,284 5,277 410.89%
Average 1,466 411.53%
National Fertiliser
Year EPS Price
2012 2.58 75.04
2013 -3.48 66.83
2014 -1.83 24.66
2015 0.53 33.57
2016 4.02 26.18
Average
National Fertiliser
PER Year PSR
29.09 2012 0.48
-19.20 2013 0.33
-13.48 2014 0.15
63.33 2015 0.16
6.51 2016 0.18
13.25 Average 0.26
National Fertiliser
Year PBV
2012 2.01
2013 1.38
2014 0.79
2015 0.93
2016 0.86
Average 1.19