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MPP7 LN04V Chinh Sach Tai Khoa Do Thien Anh Tuan 2014 10-06-16490568
MPP7 LN04V Chinh Sach Tai Khoa Do Thien Anh Tuan 2014 10-06-16490568
Ghi ch Bi ging 4
Chnh sch ti kha c th hiu l cc bin php can thip ca chnh ph n h thng thu
kha v chi tiu ca chnh ph nhm t c cc mc tiu ca nn kinh t v m nh tng
trng kinh t, to cng n vic lm hoc n nh gi c v lm pht. Nh vy, vic thc thi
chnh sch ti kha s do chnh ph thc hin lin quan n nhng thay i trong cc chnh sch
thu hoc/v chi tiu chnh ph. Cn phi lu rng, ch chnh quyn trung ng (chnh ph)
mi c quyn v chc nng thc thi chnh sch ti kha, cn chnh quyn a phng khng c
chc nng ny. y cng chnh l mt trong nhng yu t gip phn bit gia mt chnh sch ti
kha vi mt chnh sch chi tiu thuc phm vi ngn sch theo phn cp ca chnh quyn a
phng.
thc thi chnh sch ti kha th chnh ph s cn phi s dng cc cng c ca n. Cc cng
c ca chnh sch ti kha bao gm cc cng c v thu, cng c chi tiu, v cng c ti tr cho
thm ht ngn sch. C nhiu loi thu khc nhau chng hn nh thu thu nhp doanh nghip,
thu thu nhp c nhn, thu gi tr gia tng, thu tiu th c bit, thu bt ng sn, v.v... nhng
tu trung li c th chia ra lm hai loi thu l thu trc thu (direct taxes) v thu gin thu
(indirect taxes). Thu trc thu l thu nh trc tip ln ti sn v/hoc thu nhp ca ngi dn,
cn thu gin thu l thu nh ln gi tr ca hng ha, dch v trong lu thng thng qua cc
hnh vi sn xut v tiu dng ca nn kinh t. Tng t, cc chnh sch chi tiu ca chnh ph
cng ht sc a dng nhng cng c th tm chia thnh hai phn chnh l chi tiu thng xuyn
(chng hn nh chi lng cho cng chc, chi cho cc hot ng gio dc, y t, khoa hc-cng
ngh, an ninh-quc phng) v chi u t pht trin (chng hn nh chi xy dng kt cu h tng
kinh t - x hi). Cc vn thu kha v chi tiu chnh ph c th s c trnh by trong mn
Kinh t hc Khu vc Cng (Public Sector Economics) trong Hc k Xun. mn hc ny v c
th l bi ging ny chng ta ch cn hiu nm na l chnh sch thu (T) ni chung (khng ch c
thu m cn cc khon thu ngn sch ngoi thu khc v khng tnh n vay. Ngoi ra, chng ta
xem tr cp nh mt loi thu m) v chi tiu chnh ph (G) (chi tiu mua sm hng ha, dch v
ca chnh ph). Ngoi cng c thu v chi tiu, cc cng c ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch hay
ti tr n ca chnh ph (tm gi l n cng) cng c xem l mt phn ca chnh sch ti
kha.
Lu rng cc khon thu (T) v chi ngn sch (G) ny khng bao gm cc khon vay v tr n.
Khi trng thi ngn sch s c gi l thng d/thm ht/cn bng ngn sch c bn. Nu
tnh c cc khon vay tr n na th gi l thng d/thm ht/cn bng ngn sch tng th. Trong
bi ging ny, nu khng ni g thm th chng ta hiu l trng thi ngn sch c bn.
Trong trng hp ngn sch thng d (T > G) chng ta thy chnh ph khi c khon tit kim
dng. Khon tit kim ny c th c dng tr n cng (do thm ht tch ly trong nhng
nm ti kha trc) hoc cho vay nn kinh t trong nc hay nc ngoi. Ngc li, nu ngn
sch thm ht th chnh ph s phi i vay ti tr cho phn thm ht . C mt s cch
chnh sch ti tr thm ht ngn sch, chng hn nh pht hnh tn phiu/tri phiu chnh ph
(ngha l i vay trong nc hoc nc ngoi), bn bt cc ti sn quc gia (chng hn bn ti
nguyn hay bn c phn trong cc doanh nghip nh nc) hoc thm ch c th in tin. Tt
nhin chnh ph s phi cn nhc cc la chn ny v mi mt la chn nh vy u c li ch v
chi ph kinh t i km. Chng hn nh vay n s phi tr li sut, thm ch vay nc ngoi (vay
ngoi t) s cn chu ri ro bin ng t gi hi oi. Tng t, nu bn ti sn quc gia c th
lm suy gim ngun lc ca th h tng lai, hay in tin c th gy p lc lm pht v bt n v
m...). Ngoi vn la chn knh ti tr thm ht, vic s dng ngun ti tr nh th no
cng l mt thch thc khng nh. C mt nguyn tc ti tr thm ht l chnh ph khng nn i
vay chi tiu m phi dng cho u t pht trin. Ngi ta gi l nguyn tc ti kha vng
(golden rule). Ng y l vic i vay chi tiu s khng th to ra ngun tin cho vic tr
n trong tng lai, nh hng n tnh an ton ca n cng. Thay vo , vic i vay ch c
dng ti tr cho cc d n u t c kh nng thu hi vn hoc t nht l cng to ra nng lc
sn xut cho nn kinh t.
Tc ng chn ln u t t nhn
Nhiu ngi cng hoi nghi rng, ngoi tc ng chn ln, vic chnh ph tng chi tiu v ti tr
thm ht cng cha hn gip gia tng tng cu ca nn kinh t. H lp lun rng, khi chnh ph
tng cng vay mn trong hin ti th s phi tm cch tng thu trong tng lai tr n. Vic
tng thu trong tng lai chc chn s nh hng n thu nhp kh dng ca h trong tng lai
v nh vy cng s nh hng n kh nng chi tiu ca h trong tng lai. Tuy nhin, khi
ngi dn ngh nh vy th ngay hin ti h bt u gim chi tiu v tng tit kim nhm c
tin np thu trong tng lai v b li phn chi tiu c th s gim i trong tng lai . Nu
iu ny xy ra th cu tiu dng ca khu vc h gia nh v k c cu u t ca khu vc doanh
nghip gim ngay trong nm hin ti. Nh vy, khon chi tiu tng thm ca chnh ph s
c b p bi khon st gim trong chi tiu ca h gia nh v u t ca t nhn. Ngi ta
gi y l tng ng Ricardo (Ricardian Equivalence).
Khi ni n iu hnh chnh sch ti kha, ngi ta thng ni n cc loi nh chnh sch ti
kha trung lp (neutral fiscal policy), chnh sch ti kha m rng (expansionary fiscal policy),
v chnh sch ti kha thu hp (contractionary fiscal policy). Chnh sch ti kha trung lp l
chnh sch cn bng ngn sch, tc chi tiu ca chnh ph hon ton c ti tr t ngun thu
Thng thng khi nn kinh t suy thoi th chnh ph s thc thi chnh sch ti kha m rng v
ngc li khi nn kinh t tng trng th chnh ph s thc thi chnh sch ti kha thu hp. iu
hnh chnh sch ti kha theo hng ny c gi l chnh sch ti kha nghch chu k
(counter-cyclical fiscal policy). Ngc li cng c nhng quc gia iu hnh chnh sch ti
kha thun chu k (pro-cyclical fiscal policy), tc l khi nn kinh t suy thoi th thu hp ti
kha, cn khi nn kinh t tng trng nng th m rng ti kha. Nhiu nghin cu cho thy
rng, cc nc pht trin thng chnh sch ti kha c tnh nghch chu k, ngc li cc
nc ang pht trin th chnh sch ti kha li thng c tnh thun chu k). Chng ta s cn
bn tip v tnh thun v nghch chu k ca chnh sch ti kha ni ring, chnh sch v m ni
chung trong mt s bi ging ti.
tr chnh sch
Khi ni n tnh hiu lc ca chnh sch ti kha, ngi ta ni n vai tr ca tr chnh sch.
tr chnh sch bao gm tr trong v tr ngoi. tr trong c ngha l khong thi
gian t khi vn trc trc ca nn kinh t v m c nhn din cho n khi chnh sch ti kha
can thip c hoch nh v c c quan c thm quyn thng qua. tr ngoi l khong
thi gian t khi chnh sch ti kha c thng qua cho n khi n c trin khai v bt u
pht huy tc dng. tr chnh sch l mt trong nhng l do lm gim tnh hiu lc ca chnh
sch ti kha. iu ny l bi v k t khi nhn din c trc trc cho n khi chnh sch c
thit k, thng qua, v trin khai c qu nhiu yu t lm cho tnh hnh thay i. Khi , cc
chnh sch d c thit k tt nhng li c th khng ph hp vi bi cnh v cc trc trc mi
ny sinh.
cp v tnh ch ng trong iu hnh chnh sch ti kha, ngi ta chia lm hai loi gm
chnh sch bnh n t ng v chnh sch ti kha ty nghi. Chnh sch c xem l bnh n
t ng khi chnh sch thu v chi tiu s ph thuc vo s bin ng ca chu k kinh t. Chng
ta c th nhn thy iu ny khi nn kinh t tng trng hay suy thoi. Chng hn, khi nn kinh
t tng trng ngun thu thu ca chnh ph cng s tng ln trong khi nhu cu chi tiu hay quy
m ca cc gi tr cp ca chnh ph cng s gim i. Ngc li, khi nn kinh t suy thoi th
ngun thu thu ca chnh ph cng s b suy gim v nhu cu tr cp ca chnh ph cng s tng
ln. Trong khi , chnh sch ti kha l ty nghi khi chnh ph s hnh ng nhm thay i cc
chnh sch thu v chi tiu m khng ph thuc vo chu k kinh t.
S nhn ti kha
Chng ta bit rng mt chnh sch ti kha m rng (tng G hoc gim T) s gip y ng
tng cu sang phi. Ngc li, mt chnh sch ti kha thu hp (gim G hoc tng T) s y
ng tng cu sang tri. i vi nh hoch nh chnh sch, h cn phi bit thm rng vi mt
chnh sch ti kha m rng hay thu hp nht nh s lm ng tng cu dch chuyn bao nhiu
thay v ch l dch chuyn sang phi hay sang tri. bit c iu ngi ta s dng khi
nim s nhn ti kha.
S nhn ti kha (fiscal multiplier) l t s ca s thay i GDP thc do thay i mang tnh t
nh trong chi tiu hoc thu ca chnh ph. Chng ta c th gii thch ngn gn hiu ng ny
nh sau. Khi chnh ph gia tng chi tiu s to ra doanh thu cho nhng doanh nghip sn xut v
cung ng hng ha, dch v cho chnh ph. Doanh thu ny s chy vo cc h gia nh di hnh
thc l tin lng, tin li, li nhun, tin thu. S gia tng thu nhp kh dng ny li dn n
tng chi tiu tiu dng. Tip , tng chi tiu tiu dng s lm cho cc doanh nghip tng c
sn lng v doanh thu, ri li dn n mt vng tng thu nhp v chi tiu mi, v c nh vy.
Tc ng cui cng ca chnh sch tng chi tiu ca chnh ph l lm cho tng thu nhp ca nn
kinh t tng ln mt lng thm ch cn ln hn c lng chi tiu tng thm ca chnh ph.
Ngi ta gi y chnh l hiu ng ca s nhn.
Y = 100*[1 + (MPC*(1 t)) + (MPC*(1 t))2 + (MPC*(1 t))3 + ... (MPC*(1 t))n]
Khi n , ta c:1
*100
1
Cc bn c th p dng cng thc tnh tng ca mt chui s c dng cp s nhn vi cng bi q = MPC*(1 t) l:
Sn = a1(qn 1)/(q - 1).
Ni v chnh sch ti kha s cn nhiu vn phc tp khc na, song trong phm vi bi ging
ny chng ta hy tm dng cc ni dung l thuyt y. Cc vn ti kha phc tp khc s
tip tc c tho lun xen ln trong cc bi ging tip theo. Cui cng, mc tiu ca chng ta l
hy vn dng ht tt c nhng nn tng l thuyt c trnh by trong ghi ch bi ging ny
cng t li nhng vn kinh t v m ca Vit Nam thi gian qua, qua hy th tho lun
xem Chnh ph Vit Nam nn c nhng ng hng can thip ti kha nh th no t c
cc mc tiu kinh t v m m Chnh ph ang theo ui./.