China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The writer delivered a talk on China-Pakistan Energy Corridor and its ramifications at
Thinkers Forum Pakistan on May 31, 2015, chaired by Air Chief Marshal (retd) Kaleem
Saadat and attended by Lt Gen (retd) Lodhi, and members both from civil and military.
After the talk, there was long question/answer session followed by summing up by the
Chairman. Details of presentation are covered in succeeding paragraphs:

1- CPEC:

Establishment of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was first proposed by Chinese

Premier Li Keqiang during his visit to Pakistan in May 2013. The proposed project of linking
Kashgar in northwest China with Gwadar Port on Arabian Sea coastline in Baluchistan was
approved on July 5, 2013 during the visit of PM Nawaz Sharif to Beijing, which included
construction of 200 km long tunnel.

2- Chinas Investments:

In December 2013, China committed $6.5 billion for the construction of a major nuclear
power project in Karachi. In May 2014, another agreement was signed to supplement
Orange Line metro train project in Lahore worth $1.27 billion. In November 2014, the two
countries signed 19 agreements related to CPEC. In addition, Chinese firms started work on
six mega power projects in Gilgit-Baltistan such as Dassu, Phandar, Bashu, Harpo, Yalbo to
tackle Pakistans energy crisis.

3- Quest for Warm Waters:

Mindful of the under development of its western provinces which are its soft belly and
ongoing Uighur movement, China wants speedy modernisation of Xingjiang and other under
developed provinces to bring them at par with eastern provinces. For the accomplishment of
these dreams, China needs access to warm waters in Arabian Sea through Gwadar since
this route to world markets is the shortest and the cheapest. This access was never granted
to Russia.

4- Visit of President Xi Jinping:

With this objective in view, President Xi Jinping visited Islamabad on April 20-21, 2015 and
raised the level of investment from $ 26 billion to $ 46 Billion. He signed 51
agreements/MoUs worth $28 billion, with $17 billion in pipeline spread over 15 years. His
visit achieved the milestone of the groundbreaking of historic 3,000 km-long strategic CPEC.

5- Projects in Hand:

It includes $ 33 billion worth energy projects such as coal, solar, hydroelectric power
projects which will inject 10,400 MW electricity in the national grid by 2017/18, and hydro
power projects. Other projects are fibre optic cable from Xingjiang to Rawalpindi, 1240 km
long Karachi-Lahore motorway, metro and bus service in six major cities, up gradation of
1300 km long Karakorum Highway, oil/gas pipelines to connect Kashgar to the seaport of
Gwadar, 1,800-km railway line, commercial sea-lanes, special economic zones, dry ports
and other infrastructure.
6- Routes:

Three routes have been marked:-

I- Western route originating from Gwadar will pass through Turbat, Panjgur, Naag, Basima,
Sohrab, Kalat, Quetta, Qila Saifullah, Zhob DIK, Mianwali, Hasanabdal, Isbd.

II- Central route will originate from Gwadar, Quetta, and reach DIK via Basima, Khuzdar,
Sukkar, Rajanpur, Liya, Muzaffargarh, Bhakkar, DIK.

III-Eastern route will include Gwadar, Basima, Khuzdar, Sukkar, RYK, Bwp, Multan,
Lahore/Fsbd, Isbd, Mansehra.

7- Importance of Gwadar:

Gwadar is one of the least developed districts in Baluchistan province. It sits strategically
near the Persian Gulf and close to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the
worlds oil passes. Work on Gwadar deep-seaport had started in 2002 with Chinas
investment. In 2013, management of the seaport which was in the sloppy hands of
Singapore PSA International was handed over to Chinas Port Holdings. It is planned to
develop Gwadar into free trade zone with a modern airport on the model of Singapore or
Hong Kong and a gateway to CPEC. It will be largest, deep seaport, overshadowing
Chahbahar and Dubai seaports.

8- Views of Analysts:

Some analysts perceive Gwadar seaport turning into Chinas naval base in the Indian
Ocean, enabling Beijing to monitor Indian and American naval activities and thus frustrating
their ambition to convert the ocean into exclusive Indian lake. Modernization of Pak Navy by
China is seen as a step in that direction.

Analysts say the projects conceived under CPEC will ease Pakistans energy shortages and
make a substantial difference in the long term.

Some experts opine this initiative can bring greater cohesion in South Asia, one of the
worlds least economically integrated regions. It is also feared that clashing geo-economic
interests may lead to unhealthy competition.

9- Gains for China:

While the CPEC may be monumental for Pakistan, for China it is part of more ambitious
plans to beef up the countrys global economic muscle. Chinese officials describe the
corridor as the flagship project of a broader policy One Belt, One Road which seeks
to physically connect China to its markets in Asia, Africa, Europe and beyond. The New Silk
Road will link China with Europe through Central Asia and the Maritime Silk Road to ensure
a safe passage of Chinas shipping through the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.
CPEC will link China with nearly half of the population of the world.

Access to Indian Ocean via Gwadar will enable Chinas naval warships and merchant ships
to bypass Malacca Strait and overcome its Malacca Dilemma.
Development of Gwadar seaport and improvement of the infrastructure in the hinterland
would help China sustain its permanent naval presence in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian
Sea.
At the same time, the new silk roads are bound to intensify ongoing competition between
India and China and to a lesser extent between China and the US to invest in and
cultivate influence in the broader Central Asian region.

10- Indian Concerns:

Modi is at the horns of dilemma; whether to bow to RSS agenda of Hindutva and remain
captive to entrenched interest groups and lobbies in India with hardened mindset who are
doggedly resisting any paradigm shift in relations with rising China and cling to the myth of
Mahabharat. The dice of connectivity loaded by China has left India confused and
bewildered, whether to remain tied to the aprons of declining super power which is not in a
position to make big investments, or to hitch the bandwagon of ascending power which
promises a lot.

Modis position will become more vulnerable when Pakistan starts politically stabilizing and
economically shining and Lahore turning into a regional capital and he unable to fulfill the
development agenda.

India is also concerned about Chinas huge investment in Pakistan, particularly its recent
decision to fund a new batch of nuclear reactors. Pakistan plans to add four new nuclear
plants by 2023, funded by China, with four more reactors in the pipeline (adding up to a
total power capacity of 7,930 MW by 2030). China is helping Pakistan in producing
plutonium at Chinese built Khushab reactor and will also sell 8 submarines worth $5 billion,
which will give a quantum jump to Pak Navys sea capability.

Possibility of India making another somersault after finding the dicey US Asia-Pacific pivot
less attractive and Chinas policy of peace and friendship more beneficial cannot be ruled
out. However, this strategic shift will take place only when China agrees to give preference
to India over Pakistan (as had happened in 1990 when the US ditched Pakistan and
befriended India).

11- Pakistans Travails:

Pakistan has remained under a dark star for a long period. It has bravely sailed past the
period of trials and tribulations but at a very heavy cost. Pakistan has acted as the frontline
state against the Soviets and against global terrorism and suffered enormously, but in the
process it allowed China 35 free years to develop and prosper unobtrusively.

12- Changing Geo-Political Environment:

Geo-political scenario is fast changing and things are brightening up for Pakistan after its
long rocky journey. China has entered into a new era of geo-economic relationship with
Pakistan and plan to boost two-way trade from current $12 billion to $20 billion. Pak-Afghan
relations have dramatically improved. ISI and NDS have inked intelligence sharing
agreement. Afghanistan and China no more listen to Indias song of terrorism emanating
out of Pakistan.

Pakistan wisely deciding not to take part in Yemen war has helped in improving Pak-Iran
relations. Possibility of revival of IPL project and its extension up to China has brightened up
after gradual lifting of US sanctions on Iran. Russia is warming up to Pakistan and
establishing military ties with it. China and Russia are strategic partners and boosting their
respective strategic ties with Iran. Pakistan is likely to be inducted as member of the SCO
and possibly member of BRICS.
Internally, Pakistan economic indicators and GDP are improving; foreign exchange reserves
are rising and inflation is down. Railway has gone in profit for first time. Energy crisis is
being tackled earnestly. The leaders and the led are on one page to deal with scourge of
terrorism on war footing. The world is fast changing its negative opinion about Pakistan and
it is now being looked at with respect. Pakistan flags are being routinely hoisted in occupied
Kashmir; IDPs are returning to South and North Waziristan, and so are Afghan refugees.

China has risked investing so much of amount in Pakistan since it is convinced of the
genuineness of the Pakistani claim of a paradigm shift in its approach to terrorist groups.
This change has come as a consequence to across the board Operation Zarb-e-Azb in FATA
and spectacular successes achieved against terrorists of all hues including the Uyghur.

The Silk Road Economic Belt will not only connect and develop China and Pakistan but also
the regional countries for the first time and promote peace. This phenomenon will be
against Indias aggressive chemistry.

13- Pakistans Expected Gains:

a. CPEC has opened vista of great opportunities for Pakistan and will greatly help in
overcoming poverty, unemployment, inequities of smaller provinces and help Pakistan in
becoming the next Asian tiger.

b. CPEC from all counts will prove a game changer and will make China a real stakeholder in
Pakistans stability and security. It is a win-win situation for both. It will greatly expand the
scope for the sustainable and stable development of Chinas economic development.

c. Investments by China will boost Pakistans $274 billion GDP by over 15 %.

d. Corresponding progress and prosperity in Pakistan and Chinas patronage will help
Pakistan in getting rid of the decade old labels of epicentre of terrorism, most dangerous
country and a failing state.

e. Given the solid foundations of friendship at the people-to-people level between China and
Pakistan, Chinese influence in Pakistan is destined to endure the test of time.

f. Pakistan seems to have found a saviour in China, which has promised to stand by the
country in its dark hour. Once Pak-China connectivity strike roots, Pakistans geo-strategic
security interests whenever threatened will be guarded by China.

g. Chinas investment surpasses all foreign investments in Pakistan in the past. Win-win
cooperation is based on trust, confidence and convergence of interests. The Chinese
influence in Pakistan has touched an unprecedented high level and it has surpassed the US
which has remained the most preferred ally since 1954.

h. The US which has repeatedly betrayed Pakistan and is widely disliked by the public will
have to negotiate with Pakistan harder than ever from now onward. The elites under the
magic spell of the US are also inclined to change their western oriented mindset and change
their orientation.

j. Pakistan enjoys a more favorable fiscal budget situation compared to India by reducing its
budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP in 2014 (as against Indias 7%) and Pakistan is much cheaper
as an emerging market.
k. Chinas economic and military assistance will help Pakistan a great deal in narrowing its
ever widening gap in economic-military-nuclear fields with India and in bettering its defence
potential.

l. Keeping strategic parity with India has now become an achievable goal for Pakistan.

m. Revival of economy in the coming period is bound to make Pakistan an attractive

destination for foreign investors and will greatly help in removing socio-economic inequities
of smaller provinces and in squeezing the space for anti-Pakistan elements.

n. The success of the Sino-Pak partnership is critically linked to the success of stabilization
of the Afghan situation. China and Pakistan have a shared interest in the stabilization of
Afghanistan, because the main threat to the realization of the Belt and Road projects in
Pakistan come from the terrorist groups operating out of the Af-Pak region.

o. Pakistan is far more comfortable with China as a facilitator of the Afghan peace talks than
it is with the US, whose intentions are highly suspect.

p. Chinas investment in Pakistan has conveyed a big message to the other South Asian
countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal to hurry and climb on board the Chinese
Belt and Road Initiative to derive growth benefits.

q. Pakistans gravitation in the direction of China and Russia at this juncture underscores a
strategic realignment in the making.

r. China is uniquely placed to pull the key regional states Russia, Iran, Central Asian
states to its side.

14- Efforts to Scuttle CPEC:

Strategic economic moment for Pakistan has arrived and interesting part is that Pakistan
has assumed the position of economic pivot for the whole region. This paradigm shift in
circumstances is a cause of great worry for the enemies of Pakistan both within and outside.
India, Iran, UAE, Gulf States, Israel, US are unhappy. For India, CPEC is a thorn in its paw
They have put their heads together to work out new strategies how to block the forward
march. RAW has opened a special office in Delhi and has been allotted $300 million to
disrupt CPEC. Already one can notice sudden upsurge in acts of terror in the three restive
regions and activation of certain NGOs and think tanks all trying to air misgivings and create
fear psychosis.

ANP, Baloch nationalists, PkMAP raised serious objections on the routes of CPEC and alleged
these have been changed. Even PTI and JUI-F showed inclinations to climb the bandwagon
of anti-CPEC forces. Objections were being raised despite assurances by the government
that no change has been made.

15- Controversies Raised in CPEC:

Eastern route benefits Punjab and Sindh and bypasses major portion of Baluchistan and KP.

In their view, western route is original route, conceived in 2006 and is shortest.

CPEC not transparent and kept under wraps.

Three-route theory is a cover story to hide change of route.

Eastern route is six-lane motorway.

Western route is 1-2 lane roads.

Orange Line Train project is from CPEC allocations.

Special Economic Zones are inequitably distributed.

Eastern route is unsafe being close to Indian border.

16- Governments Stance:

No original route in existence before 2013.

CPEC project director Maj Gen Zahir Shah stated that no document is in existence showing
original route; hence changing of original route doesn't arise.

Western route will be developed as motorway by extending Kashgar-Karakorum Highway.

Work on three routes has started simultaneously.

15 year project has short/mid/long term projects.

Government and China wished to first develop eastern route due to factors of security,
better infrastructure and early completion.

Western route will be a long term project since it is uninhabited, insecure, time consuming.

Provincial capitals will be nodes of CPEC.

Orange Line project is Punjab project funded by Punjab govt.

Proposed 16 industrial zones not yet finalised.

Development of backward provinces is high priority of govt.

Power projects are more in KP, followed by Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan respectively.

17- Ramifications:

Political consensus, security and law and order are pre-requisites for early completion of
CPEC

China has other options to exercise if Pakistan fails to deliver.

Pakistan cannot afford to lose this golden opportunity.

Successive govts will have to remain focused and committed to completion of projects in
hand.

Provinces should focus on industrial parks, energy projects instead of routes.

Trade routes are not developed on basis of ethnicity but on basis of convenience and
requirements.

There is skepticism that administrative, technical and operational capacity of workforce and
staff of Pakistan employed in CPEC may not match the Chinese efficiency/commitment, and
also fail to absorb huge investment productively.

18- Actions in hand:

Operations in restive areas have been geared up.

Agenda of NAP has been expedited, although not satisfactorily.

10,000 strong Special Security Division has been created to provide foolproof security.

APC was held on May 13 to remove misgivings on CPEC. Another meeting was held on May
28 and in this consensus was achieved after PM agreed to develop western route first.

Special Parliamentary Committee has been formed to address complaints.

Working groups will be formed in July and economic zones decided in consultation with
provinces.

No funds will be transferred from CPEC allocations for Orange Line project. China will
however gift additional funds to complete this project in two years.

19- Conclusion:

The CPEC connected to Gwadar has the potential to radically alter the regional dynamics of
trade, development and politics. CPEC is a game changer for the entire region. It will uplift
the lives of about 3 billion people across China, Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle
East.

The time and tide is not in favor of the detractors. They will die their death in the hurricane
of CPEC since China is determined to make Pakistan a success story. $46 billion economic
package is Chinese gift for people of Pakistan

Gwadar Port and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Gwadar, Pakistan

10 Facts you should know about Gwadar, Gwadar Port and China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC).

1. December 8, 1958
Gwadar has been part of Pakistan since 8 December 1958. It is located on the coast of
Arabian Sea.

2. 533 km from Karachi

Gwadar is about 533 km from Karachi, the largest city of Pakistan, 120 km from Iran and
380 km from Oman.
3. Oil & Gas + Supply Line
Gwadar is located at the corridor of rich Oil and Gas producing countries in Persian Gulf and
supply line.

4. Warm-Water & Deep-Sea Port

Gwadar is famous for its warm-water and deep-sea port, known as Gwadar port.

5. Gwadar & Central Asia

Gwadar Port is also the nearest seaport to the energy-rich Central Asian Countries.

6. Gwadar to Kashgar
The under-construction China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will connect Gwadar Port
in Pakistan to the city of Kashgar in China.

7. 3,000 km
The CPEC (from Gwadar to Kashgar) is about 3,000 km long.

8. Highways, Railways, Pipelines + Electricity Production

The CPEC is a network of highways, railways and pipelines to transport oil and gas from
Gwadar to China along with other electricity production projects in different parts of
Pakistan.

9. $46 billion
China will spend $46 billion for the construction of CPEC.

10. From 16,000 km to 5,000 km

China imports 60% of oil from Persian Gulf. With the completion of CPEC, the distance for
this import will reduce from 16,000 km to a mere 5,000 km.
South China Sea Conflict

Territorial disputes have plagued the South China Sea for the past sixty years, inciting
episodes of heated conflict followed by periods of relative inaction. Various states in the
region, including Brunei, China, Malaysia, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam have claimed
various territories or islands within the Sea as their own, based on a wide variety of
justifications. But an upsurge in tension during the recent years has sparked concerns that
the area is becoming a flashpoint with possible global consequences. It is also evident from
the fact that the South China Sea was front and centre at recent meetings, held in Kuala
Lumpur, between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other regional
players, despite Chinas protestations against discussing the issue. Amid criticisms of
Chinas island-reclamation activities, the US and China continued to trade accusations that
the other is militarizing the South China Sea.

INTRODUCTION
Tensions in South China Sea are shaping, and are being shaped by, rising apprehensions
about the growth of Chinas military prowess and its regional intentions. China has
embarked on a substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as naval
capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by force, if necessary. At the
same time, it is developing capabilities that would put US forces in the region at risk in a
conflict, thus potentially denying access to the US Navy in the western Pacific.

TERRITORIES INVOLVED & DISPUTED

The South China Sea comprises a stretch of nearly 1.4 million square miles in the Pacific
Ocean that encompasses an area from the Singapore and Malacca Straits to the Strait of
Taiwan, spanning west of the Philippines, north of Indonesia, and east of Vietnam. The
islands in South China Sea number in hundreds, although the largest and most contentious
territories include the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Pratas Islands, Macclesfield Bank,
and Scarborough Shoal, to which all of the six major Southeast Asian nations lay various
claims. These islands are generally tiny, hundreds of kilometres offshore, and for the most
part, completely unable to support self-sustaining economic life. Since the islands have
never had an indigenous population, therefore, the issue of historical sovereignty is still a
thorny issue to resolve.
The conflicts have, however, focused basically on two groups of islands, the Paracel Islands
and the Spratly Islands.

1. THE PARACEL ISLANDS

The Paracel Islands are located about 200 kilometres offshore from the Chinese coast and
are currently being claimed by China, Vietnam and Taiwan.

2. THE SPRATLY ISLANDS

These are located over a thousand kilometres south of China. The islands in the Spratly
archipelago are being contested by: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, China and
Taiwan.

WHO CLAIMS WHAT?

1. CHINA

China claims by far the largest portion of territory an area defined by the nine-dash line
which stretches hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of
Hainan. Beijing says its right to the area goes back centuries to when the Paracel and
Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation. So, these
islands, and the sea that surrounds them, belong to China. The Chinese claim has existed
since 1947 and was largely unenforced until the leadership of Deng Xiaoping in the 1970s
and subsequent administrations. When looking at a map of the South China Sea, Chinas
claim looks like a giant U superimposed on the region; which is why the Chinese claim is
often referred to as the U-Shape line.

2. VIETNAM

Vietnam hotly disputes Chinas historical account, saying China had never claimed
sovereignty over the islands before the 1940s. Vietnam says it has actively ruled over both
the Paracels and the Spratlys since the 17th Century.

3. PHILIPPINES

The other major claimant in the area is the Philippines, which invokes its geographical
proximity to the Spratly Islands as the main basis of its claim for part of the grouping. Both
the Philippines and China lay claim to the Scarborough Shoal (known as Huangyan Island in
China) a little more than 100 miles (160km) from the Philippines and 500 miles from
China.

4. MALAYSIA & BRUNEI

Malaysia and Brunei also lay claim to territory in the South China Sea that they say falls
within their economic exclusion zones, as defined by UNCLOS the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Brunei does not claim any of the disputed islands, but Malaysia claims a small number of
islands in the Spratlys.
Here a question arises: why are these tiny, uninhabitable, and remote islands important to
China and opther Southeast Asian nations? The answer is simple: trade routes, resources
and national pride. It leads us to explore the significance of South China Sea.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

1. INTERNATIONAL TRADE ROUTE

The South China Sea is a crucial naval passage for both economic and military purposes. It
is one of the most heavily trafficked trade routes in the entire world. As much as 50 percent
of global oil tanker shipments pass through the South China Sea, which is three times more
tanker traffic than the Suez Canal and more than five times that of the Panama Canal,
making the waters one of the worlds busiest international sea lanes. More than half of the
worlds top ten shipping ports are also located in and around the South China Sea,
according to the International Association of Ports and Harbors. Part of the regional tension
is generated from the fact that the possession of certain islands, and the buildup of military
force on these islands, could easily allow the obstruction of these crucial logistical arteries.

2. NATURAL RESOURCES

Natural resources also play a major role in the struggle. No one doubts that the South China
Sea has large deposits of both oil and natural gas that could be commercially extracted for
domestic and international use. According to the World Bank, the South China Sea holds
proven oil reserves of at least seven billion barrels and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet
of natural gas, which offer tremendous economic opportunity for smaller nations like
Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and energy security for Chinas large, growing
economy.
In December 2012, Chinas National Energy Administration named the disputed waters as
the main offshore site for natural gas production, and a major Chinese energy company has
already begun drilling in deep water off the southern coast. Competitive tensions escalated
when Indias state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp announced it had partnered with
PetroVietnam for developing oil in the disputed waters.
Hostilities resurfaced in May 2014, when Chinese vessels fired water cannons at a
Vietnamese flotilla that allegedly approached a large Chinese drilling rig near the Paracel
Islands.

WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW SAYS?

Back in 1982, the international community attempted to codify and better explain certain
customary international laws with regard to sovereignty and the seas. The final product of
the conference was a treaty called the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea,
also known as UNCLOS. At present, a total of 167 States are parties to the treaty, including
China, the most notable exception being the United States.
In the South China Sea, the six claimants have mixed and matched sovereignty laws
doctrines in order to stitch together the legally convincing claims. Some claimants, like
China and Vietnam, have tried to unearth a long history of effective occupation by their
national predecessors. Vietnam has also tried to justify its ownership by tracing title back to
its colonial occupier, France. In contrast, the Philippines has argued that whatever the
history of Chinese and Vietnamese use the Spratly Islands were abandoned by the time
that Philippine citizen Thomas Cloma stumbled upon them in the 1950s, and that Cloma was
able to acquire and then transfer sovereignty over them to the Philippines.
Whats interesting about Chinas strategy is that they are currently pursuing a policy that is
attempting to conform to both modern and outdated customary international laws; the type
of law that they use depends on their particular interests. UNCLOS is the modern standard,
while what is termed historic rights is a largely outdated form of customary international
law that places a special emphasis on any evidence of long-term involvement in a disputed
area.
In any event, the claimants have shown little appetite thus far for handing over the
territorial issues in the South China Sea dispute to an impartial tribunal, perhaps because no
claimant is especially confident in their legal justifications. As a result, the territorial issue
seems most likely to be resolved ultimately on the basis of a political settlement rather than
a legal ruling.

WHAT DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD SAY?

Although China has tended to favour bilateral negotiations behind closed doors, other
countries want international mediation. But even if the Philippines is successful in its
attempts to pursue China at a UN tribunal, China would not be obliged to abide by the
ruling.
Recent attempts by regional grouping Asean to discuss new ideas for resolving the dispute
appear to have left the bloc severely divided.
The US has warned China not to elbow aside the countries it is in conflict with over the
islands.

WHY WASHINGTON WONT ACT?

The US pivot to Southeast Asia, coupled with the regions myriad conflicts, raises concerns
about the future of US interests in the region. The Obama administration has not only
worked to strengthen ties with ASEAN, but has also tried to forge tighter relations with
individual countries like Myanmar, where it has developed a new focus and strategy of
engagement. Experts say that the United States faces a dilemma and tough balancing act in
the region, as some Asean countries would like it to play a more forceful role to counter
what they see as a greater Chinese assertiveness, while others want to see less US
involvement. The priority on all sides still is to avoid military conflict.
However, if China and the US get engaged in a game of bluff, then China may have more
stomach for the fight. Its tactic is to pick quarrels over seemingly small-bore matters that
individually are not worth shedding blood over. Yet collectively, almost imperceptibly, they
advance Chinas ambition to challenge US primacy in the region. Chinas president has
pressed for a new type of great power relationship that would bring Beijing greater
respect and power in Asia. That does not threaten US primacy globally, but it does
challenge it in Asia.