Problem Set 1: Probability Solutions

Problem 1: a) False
b) False
c) True
Problem 2: a) Invalid 1
b) Valid
c) Invalid 1
d) Invalid


e) Valid
f) Invalid


Problem 3: a) A B
(Independence)
b) a) P( A B) P( A) P( B) 0.21
b) P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B) 0.79
c) P( A | B) P( A) 0.3
c) independence A B independence
P( A B) 0.21

P( A B)
e) P( A | B) 0.143
P( B)

Problem 4: a) mutually exclusive, 0.18 Liberal

Democrat Earth is warming
b) P( warm liberal ) 0.6 0.2 0.18 0.62
c) P( warm | liberal ) 0.9
d) P( warm | conser ) 0.33
e) independence, c d
f) P( Mod / Lib | not _ warm) 0.1765
Problem 5: a) mutually exclusive, 6 category
b) 0.65
 c) 0.72
d) assumption

P(male female) P(male) P( female) 0.468

e) P(like _ umami) P( female) P(like _ umami female) 0.514

Problem 6: a)
b) P(can | pass) 0.8411
0.2582
Problem 7: P( HIV | ) 0.8249
0.313

Problem 8:
lupus
7.14%
0.0196
P( Lupus | ) 0.0714
0.2744

Its never lupus
Problem 9: a) P( Blue) 0.3
b) 0.3
c) 0.3
d) 0.3 0.3 0.9
e) Independence
Sample Space Event


2
Problem 10: a) P(2nd _ Blue)
9
3
b)
9

c) 0.067
d) independence
Sample Space
Event
5 7 6
Problem 11: P(leg , jean, jean) 0.0173
21 23 22
 3

0.0517
5
Problem 12: a) 455
3

b) 6
9
9
3 84
3

c) conditional probability
P(3rd Not _1st 2nd )
P(3rd | Not _1st 2nd )
P( Not _1st 2nd )

P(3rd Not _1st 2nd )

P(3rd | Not _1st 2nd ) P( Not _1st 2nd )
P(3rd | Not _1st 2nd ) P( Not _ 2nd | Not _ 1st ) P( Not _1st )

.
1. .

14

P( Not _1st ) 0.8
3
15

3

2. .


11

P( Not _ 2nd | Not _1st ) 0.75
3
12

3

3. .

8

P(3rd | Not _1st 2nd )
2 1
9 3

3

P(3rd Not _1st 2nd ) 0.2
 d)
2
3 2 1
1
13 13
299
3 1
13
e) P(couple) 0.0434
299

f)


5 5
5


d) 3

5
299 289
3
13
g) P(couple)
289

Problem 13: a)
P( gulty) 0.5


P( witness | gulty ) p

P( w | g ) P( g )
P( g | w)
P( w | g ) P( g ) P( w | not _ g ) P(not _ g )

0.5 p
P( g | w) p
0.5 p (1 p)0.5

b)

P(2w | g ) P( g )
P( g | 2w)
P(2w | g ) P( g ) P(2w | not _ g ) P(not _ g )

0.5 p 2 p2
P( g | w)
0.5 p 2 (1 p 2 )0.5 p 2 (1 p)2

c) a b



Bayes Theorem
Problem 14:
365 364 363 341
0.43
365 365 365 365

1 0.43 0.57 57%

Problem 15: a) 56
b) 30
c) 10
Problem 16: 2
2
3
= 70
Problem 17: 4

, E 2 , S 2 , E
2 S 2 = 113
13 39

a)
5 0 33
Problem 18:
52 66640

5

13 39

b)
4 1 143
52 13328

5

4 4 44

c)
2 2 1 33
52 54145

5

19
Problem 19: a)
64
19 45
b) 1
64 64

Problem 20: a) 0.0001

b) 0.9999
Problem 21: 0.3175 0.2857 0.6032
Problem 22: a) 0.9405
b) 1 0.9405 0.0005 0.059
Problem 23:
1
a)
4
5
b)
27
1
c)
20