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METODOS CUANTITATIVOS:
( + 1 + + + 1
+ 1 =
Donde:
n : nmero de periodos.
Entonces:
(15 + 10 + 65)
4 = = 30
3
(28 + 15 + 10)
5 = = 17.667
3
(75 + 28 + 15)
6 = = 39.333
3
(12 + 75 + 28)
7 = = 38.333
3
(27 + 12 + 75)
8 = = 38
3
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 28 30 = |-2| =2
E5 = 75 17.667 = 57.333
E6 = 12 39.333 = |-27.333| = 27.333
E7 = 27 38.333 = |-11.333| = 11.333
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (2+57.333+27.333+11.333) /4
MAD = 24.50
B. PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO:
Donde:
Entonces:
F7 = (0.5)12+(0.3)75+(0.2)28 = 34.10
F8 = (0.5)27+(0.3)12+(0.2)75 = 32.10
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 28 23.5 = 4.5
E5 = 75 20.5 = 54.5
MAD = (4.5+54.5+36.9+7.1) /4
MAD =25.75
C. SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL:
Donde:
: valor seleccionado , 0 1.
Entonces:
= 0.10
F4 = (15+10+65) /3 = 30
E4 = 28-30 = |-2| = 2
E5 = 75-29.8 = 45.2
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (2+45.2+22.32+5.09) /4
MAD =18.65
D. REGRESION LINEAL.
Y = a + b(X)
Donde:
b: pendiente de la recta.
MES PERIODO(X) DEMANDA(Y) X y XY
Marzo 1 65 1 4225 65
Abril 2 10 4 100 20
Mayo 3 15 9 225 45
Junio 4 28 16 784 112
Julio 5 75 25 5625 375
Agosto 6 12 36 144 72
Setiembre 7 27 49 729 189
TOTAL 28 232 140 11832 878
X y X y XY
coeficiente de correlacin:
=
( 2 ( )2 ) ( 2 ( )2 )
7(878) (28.232)
=
((7 140) (28)2 )((7 11832) (232)2 )
350
=
2384.11
= 0.147
X 28
x = = =4
7
Y 232
y = = = 33.14
7
XYn
b= a= y x
X2 2
a= 33.14 (1.78)(4)
8787(4)(33.14)
b= = 1.78 a= 40.26
1407(4)2
Reemplazando en la frmula:
Yi= 40.26 +(-1.78) Xi
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E5 = 75 31.36=43.65
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (5.14+43.65+17.58+0.8) /4
MAD =16.79
METODOS CUANTITATIVOS:
( 1+.. + + 1)
+ 1 =
Donde:
n : nmero de periodos.
Entonces
(20 + 13 + 20)
4 = = 17.667
3
(31 + 20 + 13)
5 = = 21.333
3
(13 + 31 + 20)
6 = = 21.333
3
(17 + 13 + 31)
7 = = 20.333
3
(15 + 17 + 13)
8 = = 15
3
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 31 - 17.667 = 13.333
E5 = 13 - 21.333 = |-8.333| = 8.333
E6 = 17 - 21.333 = |-4.333| = 4.333
E7 = 15 - 20.333 = |-5.333| = 5.333
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (13.333+8.333+4.333+5.333) /4
MAD =7.833
Entonces:
F7 = (0.5)17+(0.3)13+(0.2)31 = 18.6
F8 = (0.5)15+(0.3)17+(0.2)13 = 15.2
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 31-17.9 =13.1
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (13.1+11.1+2.8+3.6) /4
MAD =7.65
C. SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL:
Donde:
: valor seleccionado , 0 1.
Entonces:
= 0.10
F4 = (20+13+20) /3 = 17.67
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 31 17.67 =13.33
E5 = 13 19.00 = |-6| = 6
E6 = 17 18.4 =| -1.4|=1.4
E7 = 15 18.26 = |- 3.26|=3.26
Desviacin Media Absoluta: MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
MAD = (13.33+6+1.4+3.26) /4
MAD =6.00
D. REGRESION LINEAL.
Y = a + b(X)
Donde:
b: pendiente de la recta.
=
( 2 ( )2 )( 2 ( )2 )
= 0.0004
X 28
x = = =4
7
Y 129
y = = = 18.43
7
XYn
b= a= y x
X2 X2
= 18.43 (1825)(4)
5027(4)(18.43)
b= = 1825.07 a= 7318.43
1407(4)2
Reemplazando en la frmula:
10000
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-5000
-10000
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 31 18.15 =12.85
E5 = 13 -1806.92 =1819.92
E6 = 17 -3631.99 = 3648.99
E7 = 15 - 5457.06 = 5472.06
MAD = (12.85+1819.92+3648.99+5472.06) /4
MAD = 2738.46
MES DEMANDA
MARZO 12
ABRIL 12
MAYO 36
JUNIO 24
JULIO 12
AGOSTO 12
SETIEMBRE 18
METODOS CUANTITATIVOS:
Donde:
n : nmero de periodos.
Entonces:
(36 + 12 + 12)
4 = = 20
3
(24 + 36 + 12)
5 = = 24
3
(12 + 24 + 36)
6 = = 24
3
(12 + 12 + 24)
7 = = 16
3
(18 + 12 + 12)
8 = = 14
3
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 24 - 20 = 4
E5 = 12 - 24 = |-12| =12
E6 = 12 24 =|-12| =12
E7 = 18 16 = 2
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (4+12+12+2) /4
MAD =7.5
B. PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO:
Donde:
Entonces:
F4 = (0.5)36+(0.3)12+(0.2)12 = 24
F6 = (0.5)12+(0.3)24+(0.2)36 = 20.4
F7 = (0.5)12+(0.3)12+(0.2)24 = 14.4
F8 = (0.5)18+(0.3)12+(0.2)12 = 15
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 24 24 =0
E6 = 12 20.4 = | -8.4|=8.4
MAD = (0+13.02+8.4+3.6) /4
MAD =6.26
C. SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL:
Donde:
: valor seleccionado , 0 1.
Entonces:
= 0.10
F4 = (36+12+12) /3 = 20
E4 = 24 20 =4
E6 = 12 19.56= |-7.56|=7.56
MAD = (SUMATORIA DE | Et |) / n
Desviacin Media Absoluta:
MAD = (4+8.4+7.56+0.8) /4
MAD =5.19
D. REGRESION LINEAL.
Y = a + b(X)
Donde:
b: pendiente de la recta.
MES PERIODO(X) DEMANDA(Y) X y XY
Marzo 1 12 1 144 12
Abril 2 12 4 144 24
Mayo 3 36 9 1296 108
Junio 4 24 16 576 96
Julio 5 12 25 144 60
Agosto 6 12 36 144 72
Setiembre 7 18 49 324 126
TOTAL 28 126 140 2772 498
X y X y XY
Coeficiente de correlacin:
=
( 2 ( )2 ) ( 2 ( )2 )
7(498)(28126)
=
(7140)(28)2 )(72772)(126)2 )
= 0.05
X 28
x = = =4
7
Y 126
y = = = 18
7
XYn
b= a= y x
X2 2
a= 18 (0.21)(4)
4987(4)(18)
b= = 0.21 a= 18.84
1407(4)2
Reemplazando en la frmula:
PRONOSTICO DE POLOS
DEMANDA(Y) PRONOSTICO
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Error de Pronstico: Et = At Ft
E4 = 24 18 =6
MAD = (6+5.79+5.58+0.63) /4
MAD = 4.5