Professional Documents
Culture Documents
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on October 26-28, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 2%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 98%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
(For the 98% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Dec 96%
Jan '18 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 5%
Average:
Apr 0%
December
2017
May 0%
Jun 0%
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
Sep 0%
After
Sep 0%
4.00
3.50
3.16
2.98 3.03
3.00
2.85 2.88
2.78
2.66 2.86
2.50
Average
2.50 2.63
1.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31
Survey Dates
Avg. forecast
Mar 14 May 2 June 13 July 25 Sept 19 Oct 31
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 58%
Overall average
No,
leave for all
current 2% respondents
system
unchanged
20.2%
Don't
know/ 9%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 30%
No 65%
Don't
know/ 5%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Workers,
through
higher 12%
wages
Shareholders
and 54%
executives
Both
about 35%
equally
90%
80%
70%
64%
62%
60% Realistic
56% 56%
50% 49%
50%
44%
47%
40% 44%
42% 41%
39% 39%
36% Too optimistic
30%
32% 31%
20%
Don't know/unsure
11% 10%
Too pessimstic
10%
5% 5% 7% 5%
2% 3% 2% 3%
2%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 33%
No 62%
Don't
know/ 5%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very
concerned 9%
Somewhat
concerned 70%
Not at all
concerned 14%
Don't
know/ 7%
unsure
Sep 19 Oct 31
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
34%
More optimistic
51%
17%
Less optimistic
7%
49%
About the same
42%
Don't 0%
know/
unsure 0%
13. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?
2,800
2708
2,700
2593 2617
2588
2,600 2564
2555
2562 2515
2,500
2453 2493
2480
2427
2442
2,400
2409
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2234 2242
2,200
2200
2158
2,100
2107
2,000
1,900
1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31
2016 2017
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.44% 3.43%
3.5%
3.37%
3.22%
3.09% 3.06%
3.05%
2.96%
3.0% 2.88%
3.03%
2.90%
2.95%
2.88%
2.83%
2.54% 2.74% 2.54%
2.5% 2.61%
2.58% 2.59%
2.26%2.28%
2.42%
2.24% 2.25%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31
2016 2017
Survey Dates
15. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020
3.0%
2.73%
2020 2.70%
2.70% 2.68%
2.67%
2.56% 2.60%
2.49%
2.5%
2.25% 2.42%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15% 2.14%
2.07% 2.10% 2.06%
2.03%
2.0%
1.87%
2.02%
1.81%
1.62%
1.61%
1.61% 1.60% 1.78%
1.69%
1.49%
1.5% 1.43%1.42%
1.39% 1.40%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22% 1.37% 1.35%
1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%
0.5%
0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31
2016 2017
16. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Oct 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Sep 20
Jan 26 '16
Sep 19
Jan 27, '15
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jan 31 '17
Oct 31
Jul 28
Jul 26
Mar 14
Jun 13
Aug 20
Jul 25
Apr 28
Aug 25
Apr 26
Aug 24
Dec 16
Dec 15
Dec 13
Nov 1
May 2
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
+2.62% 2.61%
+2.57% 2.60%
2.6%
+2.58%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41% +2.45%
2.4% 2.45%
+2.38%
2.30%
+2.28%
+2.26% +2.25%
+2.31%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan
Dec Mar Apr Jun Aug Sep Dec Jan Mar Jun Sep Oct
26 Jul 26 Nov 1 May 2 Jul 25
15 15 26 14 24 20 13 31 14 13 19 31
'16
2017 +2.43 +2.31 +2.41 +2.21 +2.25 +2.26 +2.24 +2.28 +2.16 +2.57 +2.51 +2.38 +2.24 +2.25 2.25% 2.21% 2.30%
2018 +2.76 +2.75 +2.62 +2.58 +2.45 2.45% 2.60% 2.61%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.50%
2.44%
2.38%
2.4%
2.36% 2.37%
2.24% 2.28% 2.23%
2.20% 2.23%
2.2% 2.16% 2.15%
2.12%
2.13% 2.14%
2.12% 2.12%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0% 1.97%
2.02% 1.92%
1.88%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31
2016 2017
Survey Dates
-0.25
-0.33
-0.80
-0.83 Stocks
-0.86
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Lower yields 0%
Don't know/unsure 0%
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 0 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 0 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 0 4 9 0
Other responses:
Debt/GDP level Markets
Failure to act on taxes, health Repricing in asset markets due
care, reg reduction (already to shift in investor expectations
happening) regarding future monetary
Fear itself policy
Insufficient optimism Tax cuts
Lying liberal media
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 16.7%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
19.3%
15.1% 16.7%
16.2% 16.4%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
Jun 16
Aug 11, '11
Oct. 31
Mar 16
Mar 19
Jul 28
Jan 15 '16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jan 31 '17
Mar 14
Jul 31
Jun 18
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Jul 30
Jul 29
Sep 16
Jul 26
Jun 13
Dec 16
Dec 15
Sep 20
Jul 25
Dec 13
Sep 19
Jan 23, '12
Sep 12
Dec 11
Jan 29, '13
Dec 17
Sept 19
April 28
Sept 16
Aug 24
May 2
Sep 6
Oct 29
Oct 28
Oct 27
Nov 1
Oct 31
Apr 24
Apr 30
Apr 28
Jan 26
Apr 26
Other
23%
Currencies
0%
Economics
Fixed Income
50%
14%
Equities
14%
Comments:
Jim Bianco, President, Bianco Research: The next Fed chair will
have a hawkish board as Trump will appoint independently-minded
governors that will not be afraid to dissent.
Kurt Karl, Chief Economist, Swiss Re: The current status of the
negotiations on NAFTA are disturbing and if escalated to other trade
agreements could result in a disastrous trade war.