Welcome to the Era of Big Data and Predictive

Analytics in Higher Education

Ellen Wagner
WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies

Joel Hartman
University of Central Florida
 The Focus of this Session

This session will present an introduction to the emerging and

evolving topics of Big Data and predictive analytics particularly
as they apply to higher education and the use of data to improve
student persistence and outcomes.
An overview of Big Data, an introduction to the Predictive
Analytics Reporting (PAR) Framework, and an institutions
perspective on these issues along with their implementation of
analytics will be presented.
 Postsecondary Education and
the New Normal
Unprecedented demands for Accountability, Efficiency,
Effectiveness
Increased expectations for greater transparency
A recognition that shared services are more than just a good
idea that somebody else should do
More competition than ever before.
 We Can RunBut We Cant Hide
New Approaches to the New Normal: 2012 Higher Education
Legislative Recap in the West (Nov 27, 2012)
(http://www.wiche.edu/info/publications/PI-2012PolicyInsights )
Notable issues: postsecondary finance, including attempts to
implement a new wave of outcomes-based funding;
completion, accountability and major governance changes.
Specific issues include adult learners, workforce development,
and the implementation of Common Core Standards.
Tight budgets will continue to impact higher ed leading to an
increased focus on productivity and flexibility for institutions
and students
 Costs increase and completion rates
Graduation rates at 150% of time
70
2-yr colleges
60 4-yr colleges

50

40

30

20

10

1997

2004
1996

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

2005
Cohort year

Source: New York Times; NCES

 The need to flip the curve
90% of community Additional 300k to 1 Demands of globalized,
colleges in 2010 and million credentials information economy
69% in 2011 needed per year

Deeper
Rising Higher More
learning
enrollments completions
expectations outcomes

Limited Declining
Budget
seat family
Constrained cuts
capacity ability to
resources pay

32% of community 58% of community Student load debt now

college students unable college budgets cut in greater than all
to enroll in classes; CA 2011-2012; 41% of cuts consumer loan debt
turning away up to 670k >5%; long-term
students per year competition with
healthcare

Source: 2011 Community Colleges and the Economy, AACC/Campus Computing Project, April 2011;
Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive, Field dates: September 27th
through November 4th, 2010
 Innovation and Educational
Transformation
The term innovation derives from the Latin word innovare "to
renew or change."
Innovation generally refers to the creation of better or more
effective products, processes, technologies, or ideas that
affect markets, governments, and society.
Technologies frequently featured in todays mix of solutions
for solving problem and promoting innovation
 Tech Trend and Analytics
Data Warehouses and the Cloud make it possible to collect,
manage and maintain massive numbers of records.
Sophisticated technology platforms provide computing power
necessary for grinding through calculations and turning the
mass of numbers into meaningful patterns.
Data mining uses descriptive and inferential statistics
moving averages, correlations, and regressions, graph
analysis, market basket analysis, and tokenization to look
inside those patterns for actionable information.
Predictive techniques, such as neural networks and decision
trees, help anticipate behavior and events.
 Why the Emergence of Big Data?

Expectations for accountability to stakeholders

Demands for evidence to guide and support decision-making
Finding metrics that matter to institutions AND individuals
Technology platforms provide a means to the end.
Where are we headed? Business Models
Provide Guidance

Courtesy Phil Ice

Big Data and Analytics and
Frameworks, Oh, My
BIG DATA AND ANALYTICS ARE
TAKING HIGHER EDUCATION BY
STORM
 Where to Begin?????
Uncertainty about where to start
No established industry best practice about what to
measure
No established industry best practice around methodology
Institutional Culture, Learning Culture and Status Quo
Enterprise concern about what the data will show
Competing priorities and lack of incentive for collaboration
between different groups
Siloed data across the enterprise doesnt help.
13

Sage Road Solutions LLC

Evidence-based decision-making
Success and decision making are predicated on access to
data
Understanding strengths and weaknesses is dependent on
having access to all data within the enterprise
Data tells us what has happened and improves strategic
planning moving forward

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 What is the PAR Framework?
A big data analysis effort identify drivers related
to loss and momentum and to inform student loss
prevention

WCET member institutions voluntarily contribute

de-identified student records to create a single
federated database.
 Making Data Matter

Turn the Use the

Gather
data into information to
the data
information help learners
 Institutional Partners

American Public University Troy University

System*
University of Central Florida
Ashford University
Broward College University of Hawaii System*
Capella University University of Illinois
Colorado Community College Springfield*
System* University of Maryland
Lone Star College System University College
Penn State World Campus
University of Phoenix*
Rio Salado College*
Sinclair Community College Western Governors University
 Predicated on a framework
of common data definitions
Common data definitions at the foundation of
reusable predictive models and meaningful
comparisons.
Common data definitions openly published via
a cc license
https://public.datacookbook.com/public/instit
utions/par
 Multi-
institutional data

Institutional
Data

College Data

33 Variables >70 variables

and Program
and growing
common Data
during
definitions implementation
Classroom
from POC /Instructor
Data
Studen
t Data

LMS
DATA
Making Data Matter Via Modeling

Model building is an
iterative process
Around 70-80% efforts
are spent on data
exploration and
understanding.

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 What are we going to DO
with what weve learned????
 Some of PARs Products
Reflective Report
Validated Multi-
Institutional
Benchmark
Reports
Dataset
Aggregate Models Policy

Institutional
Local Intervention
Models
Student Watch Comparative
List Interventions
Actionable Predictive Models
 PAR Student Success Matrix
Powerful Framework for benchmarking student
services and interventions
Quantification
Quantified of Intervention
intervention Effectiveness
effectiveness
Quantified intervention effectiveness results
results
 ACT

Student level
watch lists for
targeted
PREDICT interventions
Reusable
Measurable RESULTS
predictive
results
models

Common Definitions Common Definitions

of Risk of interventions

Multi-Institutional collaboration

Scalable cross-institutional improvements

 Partner Perspectives:
The University of Central Florida

Dr. Joel Hartman

Vice Provost for Information Technologies and
Resources and CIO
THANKS for your interest
http://parframework.org
http://wcet.wiche.edu
 Big Data
&
UCF Student
Success
1
 From Data To Information
Era Evolutionary Step Technologies Perspective
1960s- Data Collection Computers, tapes, disks Retrospective, static
1970s data delivery

1980s Data Access RDBMS, SQL, ODBC Retrospective, dynamic

data delivery

1990s Data Warehouses, Data Data warehouses, Retrospective, dynamic

Marts, Decision Support data marts, OLAP data delivery
Tools, BI

2000s Data Mining / Models, algorithms, Prospective, proactive

Big Data fast computers, information delivery,
massive databases, visualization, and
dashboards exploration

Source: Kurt Thearling

An Information Architecture
Policy, security, technology infrastructure,
software, and people
Hierarchy of users and information needs
Hierarchy of tools and methods
Full-service to self-service support
In support of information-driven planning
and decision making
Analytics / Data Science
The extraction of hidden predictive
information from large databases
determination of rules working in the target
environment, but hidden in the data
future events, trends, behaviors
can tag individuals
predictive capabilities
Barriers
Lack of executive vision or familiarity
Inability to associate important business
problems with big data solutions
Users or executives rooted in a
retrospective or green bar mentality
Cost
No data warehouse or analytical tools
Data quality issues
Uncollected data cannot be analyzed
UCF Information Architecture

6
Student Success Initiative Goals
Increase student completion rates
Reduce time to degree
Minimize excess credit hour accumulation

7
 PeopleSoft Mapping &
Degree Audit Tracking

BIG DEGREE
DATA PROGRAM
SUPPORT

Academic
Support
Core Services Support
PROGRESS Programs
Intervention Programs
Intervention
Intervention

INTERVENTIONS
P.R.O.G.R.E.S.S. Probing to Remove Obstacles toward Graduation and Retention for Enrolled Student Success 8
 Different Levels of Insight
Descriptive Analytics
1. How many logins, page views,
and other metrics have
occurred over time?
2. What were the course
completion rates for a
particular program over time?
What were the attributes of
the students who didnt
successfully complete?
3. Which tools are being used in
courses the most?
Predictive Analytics
1. Which students are exhibiting
behaviors early in the semester
which put them at risk for
dropping or failing a course?
2. What is the predicted course
completion rate for a particular
program? Which students are
currently at risk for completing
and why?
3. Which tools and content in the
course are directly correlated
to student success?
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Civitas Learning and PAR
Project: Insights from Big Data

Translate complex data into real-time, personalized

recommendations to inform decisions and
interventions that
lead to student success
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15
 Big Data
&
UCF Student
Success
16