,

(-)

- -

2015

:
()

: (UNDP)
(GIZ)

:
(-),
.
-
-

. -
(): ,
(-)

: . -
,
, .

:
: -

(GIZ):

________________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________________ 1
________________________________________ 1

_________________________________________ 2

____ 6

__________ 10
________________________________ 10

__________________________________________ 13

_______________________________ 18
_____________________ 21
_______________________________________ 21

_________________________________23

_________24

_________________________________________25

CO2 _____________________________________________________26

____________________________________________27

____________________________________ 29

________________________ 35

_____________ 40

______________________ 44
___________________ 44

___________________________ 44

_________________________________________________ 46
:
______________________________________ 47
______________________________________ 47

_________________________________________________ 48

__________________________________________48

_________________________________________________________61

______________________________________________________69


1. 2 2030 ........................................... 11
2. 2030 ..................................................... 12
3. 2030 ............. 13
4. ................................................. 17
5. ........... 23
6. ...... 24
7.
..................................................................................... 25
8. .......................... 26
9. 2 ........................................................ 26
10. .... 27
11.
.......................................................................................... 33
12. 2 .......................................... 33
13.
................................................................. 38
14. CO2 .................. 38
15. CO2 ....................................................................... 40
16. kgCO2/2005 USD ............................................. 41
17. tCO2/ ................................................... 42
18. kgCO2/2005 USD ................................... 43
19. tCO2/ ............................................ 43


1.
...................................................................................................................... 5
2. INDC ........................................... 7
3. ............................................... 28
4.
: ....................................................................................... 29
5. ............................................. 32
6.
: ........................................................... 35
7. ................... 37
8. 2
.................................................................................................................. 44
9. 2 2030
1990 ( 1990) ............................................................................ 45
10. 2 2030
( 2005 2012) .................................................. 45
11. .......................... 48
12. ...................... 49
13. ......................... 50
14. ............................... 51
15. .............................. 52
16. ............................ 53
17. ................................. 54
18. .................... 55
19. .............. 56
20. 5% ....................................... 57
21.
.................................................................................................................................. 58
22. ... 59
23. 10% ..................................... 60
24. ....... 61


25.
...................................................................................................... 62
26.
.............................................................................................. 63
27. ,
......................................................................................................................... 64
28. ......................... 65
29. ...................... 66
30. . . .... 67
31. ................ 68
32.
............................................................................................................ 69
33. .......................... 70
34. ,
............................................ 71
35. ...................................... 72

. 01

(UNFCCC)
2020 , ,
2015 .
,
,
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(INDC). , Intended
,
, ,
.
, Nationally Determined
, ,
. ,
Contribution

(GHG)
2.

.

,
,
.

. 02

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)

, ,

,

INDC,

INDC 1
( )

. ,
()

.
1
,

(
) ,
. , ,


.
,
,
,
,
.

,
,
INDC
.

, INDC , INDC
,

. 03

. ,
.

INDC .

, , 80%
INDC CO2

, ,
CO2
. , INDC
CO2 ,

.
,

(

)

, :

-




. 04

INDC
(),

UNFCCC,
()

(), -
() ()
, ,
.

,
.
,
(UNDP)
(GIZ), .

,
,
( 1).
INDC

,
.

. 05

1.

1.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. 5%
11.
12.
13. 10%

14.
15. ,
16. (
Directive 2010/31/EU)
17. (
Directive
2010/31/EU)
18.
19.

20.
21.

22.
23.
24. ,

25.
26.

. 06

2015
, ,
,
,
,
, (
),
.

(GIZ)
, ,
(BMUB)
(UNDP)

.

. , ,

(-),
() ()

( 2)

,


. INDC
(Background document) INDC (Submission

. 07

document). (
1)
. ( )

INDC.

2. INDC

(:)
1:
, :

/

E:

:
(bottom-up)
MOE, MT, :


/


2:



:

E:
,
E:

1 www.moepp.gov.mk; www.klimatskipromeni.mk

. 08

(:)
3:
-
-
E: ,
,
,

,



:
(Marginal Abetment Cost Curve

MAC Curve)
E:
-



;


E: ,
4:
MA: ,

E:
,

:
MOE, MT, :
5: E: , ,
- ,

INDC
E: , ,
( ,
)
INDC

. 09

(:)
MA: (, ,
)
INDC :
MOE, MT, :


6:




M:

: ,



: ,

,





UNFCCC

. 10

(Marginal Abatement Cost urve - ).

(business-as-usual).

.
, .
,

.

.

,
, -
.

.

.


. 11

, 1.
:

: ,


,
.

1746
1246
kt CO2
1000

900

. 800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
.

10%

5%

. .

.
. .

1. 2 2030

3.

. ,

.

100 /tCO2. (

. 12

2030 , ,
,

) .
, 2
(
)
4 t
.

. /t CO2
100

50

-50

-100

-150

-200

5%

10%

. .

. .

-626

2. 2030

, (
) ( 3).
, 2030 , 2
4 t (22%) .
, , 2
2 t ( 11%).

. 13

100. 590

5%

50.

2025
(/t)

0.
0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

10%

-50.

-100.



-150.
. .

-200. ,
Mt CO2
-626

3. 2030

,
.
,
,
.
,
, (
- white-collar jobs),

( mixed white and blue-collar jobs).

,
(, ). ,
, .

. 14

Input-Output
2. ,

3.

.

: , .

,
, .
(

)

(, , , ).
,

.
,

2http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/research_brief/PERI_USGBC_Research_Brief.pdf
3Max Wei, Shana Patadia, Daniel M. Kammen, Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work:How
many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?, Energy Policy 38(2010); 919931

. 15

. ,
. ,

. ,

,
3.500

2030 .

3.500.
,
. ,
,
.
5,1
4,2 .
.
,

,
, , .
3,7 (

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500 2030 .

.
,
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. , 2030

. 16

,
. ,
.
,
.

., .

,

.

,
,
.
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, , , ,

-,

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,
, .
1.300
, 2 kW
,
( ).

.

. 17

, ,
.
600 2030 .

.
.

, 4, 6.000
O 6.000
2030
(
2030
).


7000

6000

5000
.

.
4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2020 2025 2030

4.

. 18

(, , , , ,
,
)
.
(
) ,
:

,


,


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:

1) :
,


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. 19

,
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,
,

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.
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. 20

- (
)
-

(3)
: ,
:

-

- 2
- 10%
-
-
-

INDC.

(26 )
/
INDC. ,

.

. 21

,
.
(scenario without measures).
,

. ,

.
2035
:

:
4,5%.
(): 4,5% 2035

: -0,09% 2035

:
0,09%

/
.


.
, 65,4 MW , 50 MW , 18 MW
7 MW .

. 22

.
.

(
),
.

4. 4-5
35-45 /Wh , a 2035
70 /Wh5

World Energy Outlook 2014, New policy scenario

.

.

4 (Hungarian Power Exchange HUPX,

https://www.hupx.hu/en/Pages/hupx.aspx?remsession=1)
5 IEA World Energy Investment Outlook , Special Report, 2014

. 23

ARKAL
, .

,
70%,
1.885 ktoe 70% 2030 2012
2012 , 1.885 ktoe 3.178 ktoe ( 5).
3.178 ktoe 2030
.

38% 33%
( 5).
1% 2012 8% 2030 ,
11% 8%.

4000
3500
3000
2500
ktoe

2000
1500
(., .)
1000
500
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

WOM
1% 3% 10% 2% 8%
0%
11% 8%

39% 38%

32% 33%

3% 1% 3% 8%

5.

.

. 24

2012 ( 7.000 GWh),

8.294 8.300 GWh
GWh 2012 33%.
14.487 GWh o 52%, 12%
2030.
4%. 2030
12.196 GWh (74%

2012) ( 6).

14.487 GWh (93% 2012 ).
72%
, 14% , 12% 1%
.

17000
15000
13000
11000
GWh

9000
7000
5000
3000 -
1000
-1000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

WOM
12% 1%
12% 0%
4%
14% .
.
52%
32% -1% 72%

6.

2030 58%

. 25

2012 1.836 MW 2.893 MW ( 7).

55%, 25%, -
18% 2%.

3500
55%.
3000
2500
2000
MW

1500
1000

500
0

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
11% 0% WOM 0% 2% -

25%
40%

33% 55%
18%
16%

7.

2030 73%

2.900 ktoe 2012 5.100 ktoe 2030
( 8). 2012 50%
73% 4%.
2030 .
2012

25%.
54%. 8,5% 2030 12,3%.
1,5% 2030
4,9%, (., .)
3,5%, 2012 .

. 26

6000
5000

4000
3000
ktoe

2000

1000

0
. (-)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
-1000

WOM
3.4% 6.4% 3.5% 4.9%

29.0% 25.1%

49.6% 54.1%
3.9% 12.3%
7.8% -0.1%

8.

CO2


CO2 e CO2 87%, 9.500 kt
87%, 2012, 17.700 kt ( 9). 2
2030 2032 (17.900 kt),

17.700 .
kt.
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
kt CO2

10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

9. 2

. 27

7,5% 2012

40.427.

40.427 , ,
, 2012-2035 .
2012-2035 .

2012 2030
( 10).
17,8%
7 2013 260 2030 .

1.833
2030 .

7000

6000 ( )

5000
( )
2012 Meuro

4000

3000 ( )

2000
( )
1000

0
2014

2032
2012
2013

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031

2033
2034
2035

WOM

10.

2015-2030
21 .

11%.

. 28

3 .

2,9%
2012-2030 , 3,1%,
2,6%, 3,1%.

3.

2012 2020 2030
2012/2020 2012/2030
2012/2020 2012/2030
(%) (%)
(%) (%)

(ktoe) 1885 2357 3178 2.8% 2.9% 25.0% 68.6%

(GWh) 6998 8973 12196 3.2% 3.1% 28.2% 74.3%

(GWh) 8294 10618 14487 3.1% 3.1% 28.0% 74.7%

(GW) 1836 1727 2893 -0.8% 2.6% -5.9% 57.6%

2939 3313 5097 1.5% 3.1% 12.7% 73.4%
(ktoe)

CO2 (kt) 9438 9640 17663 0.3% 3.5% 2.1% 87.1%


. 29

17 /
.
17
-
/
/ ,
/
,
.. .
( with existing measures WEM ).
/, 4
. ,
CO2.
/
,

/. .

1.746 kt.

4.
:

/
2
,
,
1.746



, ,
. 296


. 30

,
, 50

,

, 35




. 77



,
214

,
, 4



167



, ,
, 121

,



,
, 46

,
, 37

,


. 31

,
, ,
106

,
,



,
, 0,5

,



,
, 48

,


0,8


9,4

5% 209
: 3.166

,
/ 4, 5

:

2,2%
2,2%,
48% 2030 2012 .
1,7%, 2030 2.979 ktoe.


0,7% ( 11).
1,8%, 2
1,5%

. 32

2030
9.188 GWh 2012 31%
1,5%.
1,6% ( 11).

2012 30%,
1,4%
/
50%.
2030
4.000 ktoe 2012 37%
1,8%.
CO2 2 32% 2030

12.435 kt 2030 12.435kt.
12
5.

2012 2020 2030
2012/2020 2012/2030
2012/2020 2012/2030
(%) (%)
(%) (%)

(ktoe) 1885 2496 2797 3.6% 2.2% 32.4% 48.4%

6998 8501 9188 2.5% 1.5% 21.5% 31.3%
(GWh)

8294 9964 10734 2.3% 1.4% 20.1% 29.4%
(GWh)

(GW) 1836 2248 2753 2.6% 2.3% 22.4% 49.9%

2939 3572 4035 2.5% 1.8% 21.5% 37.3%
(ktoe)

CO2 (kt) 9438 10753 12435 1.6% 1.5% 13.9% 31.8%


. 33

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-2.5%

11.

14000

12000

10000

8000
kt CO2

6000

4000

2000

12. 2



7,5% 2012

37.871 2012-2035 ,
2.555 2.555 .
.

. 34

4.268 267 .
2,2% .

2,2% .

. 35

( 4)

( 6). .. (with

24 additional measures WAM scenario).

/ .

(
) 1.247
kt.

6.
:

/
2



:3,082
,


, ,
.,
, 342

.
,
972

,
, 84

,
,
135
,

. 36

. 51






, ,
, 1247

,



,
, 0.6

,

10% 209
: 6,122

7
:

2,1%

44% 2030 2012 .

2,1%, 2030 2.717 ktoe.

1%. 0,9% ( 13).
2030
8.371 GWh 2012 20%
1%.
2,1% ( 11).

2012 30%,
1,4%

. 37

/

45%.

2030
1,4%, 3.800 ktoe 2012 30%
2
1,4%.
1%
2 20% 2030
11.359 kt ( 14).
7.

2012 2020 2030
2012/2020 2012/2030
2012/2020 2012/2030
(%) (%)
(%) (%)

(ktoe) 1885 2415 2717 3.1% 2.1% 28.1% 44.2%

6998 7483 8371 0.8% 1.0% 6.9% 19.6%
(GWh)

8294 8708 9724 0.6% 0.9% 5.0% 17.2%
(GWh)

(GW) 1836 2248 2665 2.6% 2.1% 22.4% 45.2%

2939 3467 3790 2.1% 1.4% 18.0% 28.9%
(ktoe)

CO2 (kt) 9438 10741 11359 1.6% 1.0% 13.8% 20.4%


. 38

CO2
0.0%

11.359 kt 2030
-0.5%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-2.5%

-3.0%

13.

14000

12000

10000

8000
kt CO2

6000

4000

2000

14. CO2

7,5% 2012

. 39

37.176,

.3.250 .



3.250
4.504 281 .
.
2,3% .

2,3% .

. 40

(WOM), CO2 2030
( 9.000 kt 18.000 kt). 17-
(W), 2030
30% .
(WAM),
, 2030 36%
.
, 2030
2032 , .

20000

18000

16000

14000

12000
kt CO2

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Year

15. CO2

2
1,1%,
2 3,6%,

. 41

2030 2/ 1.08 kg ( 16), 2/ 8.63 t

( 17) .

, 2/
3%, 2/ 1,6%, CO2
43%, 2 33% 2012
. 2/ 0.76 kg (
16), 2/ 6.07 t ( 17).

, 2/
3,5%, 2/ 1,1%,
CO2 47%, 2
21% 2012 . 2/
0.7 kg ( 16), 2/ 5.55 t ( 17).

1.4

1.2

1
kg CO2/2005 USD

0.8
WOM

0.6
WEM
0.4

WAM
0.2

0
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

16. kgCO2/2005 USD


. 42

10

7

6
tCO2/

WOM
5

4 WEM

3

2 WAM

0
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

17. tCO2/

CO2 .
.
, 2030 ,
2012 , ,
0.4 kg CO2/2005 USD . ( 18 ).

CO 2
, , , .
,
2035 2012 ( 19).

. 43

1.8 OECD


1.6


1.4


1.2

kg CO2/2005 USD

1


0.8


0.6


0.4


0.2


0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 WOM
WEM
WAM

18. kgCO2/2005 USD

16 OECD


14



12



10

tCO2/

8



6


4


2


WOM
0 WEM
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 WAM

19. tCO2/

.44

2030 ,
30% .
2
2030 (

) 8.
36%
8. 2

2 2030 (kt)

17.663

12.435 -30%

11.359 -36%

87% ( )
2030
. , 2030,

1990 ( ).
, 31% (
INDC) 1990

20% 9.445 kt .
31%
20% ( 9).


1990


.45

9. 2 2030 1990 (
1990)

CO2 e 1990 . (kt) 9.445

CO2 2030
1990
(kt)

17.663 +87%

12.435 +31%

11.359 +20%

90% 2 2005.
2030 2

2005 9.278 kt.

, 34%
o 34%,
22% 2005 ( 10).
22%
10. 2 2030 (
2005 2012)
2
2005 (kt) 9.278
2005 2
2012 (kt) 9.438

CO2 e 2005 2012
2030 (kt)

17.663 +90% +87%

12.435 +34% +32%

11.359 +22% +20%


.46

1990.
.

30%, 36% ,
2030 .
80%

,

( ),
2030 31%,
20% ,
1990 . ,
2030 2032 .
 :

.47

:




2035 (MARKet ALlocation).

, / .
, , ,
..

.

,
,

.

.

.

: .
, 2012 .

.
 :

.48

/
.

11.

:
,
;

17% 11%

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 167

(/t)
-34,3
2030
 :

.49

12.

:
, ;

II
-

2016-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 120

(/t)
-16,2
2030
 :

.50

13.

:
, 17.04.2013;
,


;

180 MW 2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 45,6

(/t)
-20,1
2030
 :

.51

14.

:
, 17.04.2013;
,


;

263 MW

2035

2016-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 106,5

(/t)
6
2030
 :

.52

15.

:
, 17.04.2013;
,


;

180 MW

2035

2016-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 37,2

(/t)
-21,9
2030
 :

.53

16.

:
, 17.04.2013;
,


;

15 MW

2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 0,46

(/t)
61,5
2030
 :

.54

17.

, :
, 17.04.2013;

;

15 MW
2035

2020-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 48,4

(/t) 36,4
2030
 :

.55

18.

:
,
;

2015-2019

CO2 (kt) 2030 0,76

(/t)
590,6
2030
 :

.56

19.

:
,
;

60%
50% 2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 9,4

(/t)
-166
2030
 :

.57

20. 5%

/ 5%

5% 2020

:
, ;
: DIRECTIVE 2003/30/EC on the promotion of the
use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport

2025 , 5%

2020 10% 2025
, 2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 210

(/t)
3
2030
 :

.58

21.

,
:

1.090 MW
, 750 MW
WOM 2035 .

2025-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 1.248

(/t)
1,89
2030
 :

.59

22.

:
,
;

15 MW

2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 0,6

(/t)
-120
2030
 :

.60

23. 10%

/ 10%

10% 2020

:
, ;
: DIRECTIVE 2003/30/EC on the promotion of the
use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport

2003/30/EC,
10% 2020 ,
2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 210

(/t)
3,4
2030
 :

.61

24.

( ++,+,, )

(,

)

:

.
: DIRECTIVE 2010/30/EU

, on the indication by labelling and standard product

information of the consumption of energy and
other resources by energy-related products;
New EU Energy Labels for Domestic Ovens and
Range Hoods:
Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 65/2014

: ,
40% 2035;

:
, 30% 2035

2015-2035

CO2 (kt) 2030 1.746

(/t)
-28
2030
 :

.62

25.

, (CFL) LED

(, )

: COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) No 244/2009

implementing Directive 2005/32/EC of the European Parliament
and of the Council with regard to
ecodesign requirements for non-directional household lamps

, 2016 ,
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2015-2020

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28.

()

:

,
: DIRECTIVE 2010/31/EU OF THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL
on the energy performance of buildings

1%
,
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2015-2035

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9,3
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29.

()

:

,
: DIRECTIVE 2010/31/EU OF THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL
on the energy performance of buildings

,

C (90 kWh/m2)

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,

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.

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31.

()

: DIRECTIVE 2010/31/EU OF THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL

on the energy performance of buildings,
,
member States shall ensure that by 31 December 2020 all

new buildings are nearly zero-energy buildings

A+ (15 kWh/m2).

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

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20%

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2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

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CO2 2020 95 g/km
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