Intro-Crisis 2006 PDF

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(Area Studies)
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, ................................ 31
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; ................................................ 40
: , Michael BRECHER.. 44
........................................................................................................................ 44
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: ............................................................................................................... 60
: ............................................................................................ 77
.................................................................................................................... 88
, Michael BRECHER & Hemda

Ben YEHUDA ..................................................................................................................................... 89
.......................................................................................................................... 89
.............................................................................................................................. 98
......................................................................................................... 106
(unit) - (system) ................................................................... 110
, . ............................................... 117
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1: *........................................................... 123
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1: ........................................................................... 128
2: ........................................................... 131
3: ............................................................................. 132
............................................................................................................ 134
- ................................................................................................... 137
..............................................................................................................................139
..................................................................139
, Alexander L. GEORGE...................................... 140

................................................ 143
1. (Blackmail)....................................................................................................... 143
2. , (the limited, reversible probe)............. 146
-3-
3. (the strategy of controlled pressure)...... 148
4. (the fait accompli strategy) .............................. 149
5. (the attrition strategy) ................................................... 150
................................................ 151
1. (coercive diplomacy) ................................................. 152
2.
(limited escalation) ........................................................................ 158
3.
(tit-for-tat) ................................................................................................. 159
4.
(test of capabilities) ........................................................... 160
5. (the strategy of "drawing a line") .... 161
6.
(conveying commitment and resolve) ........................................... 162
7.
(buying time) ........................................................................................... 165
..................................................................................................................... 167
Phil WILLIAMS ......................................................................... 168

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I. .............................................................................................. 176
V. .................................................................................................. 179
V. ........................................................................................................ 185
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1. .................................................................................................................................... 247
1.1. .................................................................................................................... 247
1.2. ..................................................................... 249
1.3. ............................................................................................................ 250
1.4. ............................................................................................... 251
2. .................................................................................................. 252
2.1. : . 252
2.2. ........................................... 253
2.2.1. ................................................................................................................... 253
2.2.2. .................................................................................... 256
2.2.3. .......................................................................................... 257
2.2.4. ...................................................................................... 258
2.3. .................................................................................... 260
3. ............................................................................................. 264
3.1 ....................................................................... 264
3.2 .................................................................................................. 266
3.2.1. ; ........................................................ 267
............................................................................................................ 267
........................................................................................................... 268
... ........................................................................................................ 269
3.2.2. ; ......... 270
3.2.3. ; ......................................... 272
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................................................................... 274
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4. ............................................................................................................................ 277
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, ,
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,
, Michael
Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality, (Oxford, New York, Seoul, Tokyo:
Pergamon Press; 1993) , ,
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, , Michael Brecher & Hemda Ben Yehuda, System
and Crisis in International Politics ( : Review of International Studies, 1985, 11, pp.17-
36). -
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"Strategies for Crisis Management" Alexander L. George, ,
Alexander L. George (editor), Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management, (Boulder, San
-6-
Francisco, Oxford, Westview Press; 1991), . 377-394. ,
"Crisis Management" Phil Williams,
J.Baylis, K.Booth, J.Garnett & P.Williams, Contemporary Strategy: Theories
and Policies, (London: Groom Helm; 1975), . 152-171.

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, 1996-1997
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:
Stelios Alifantis, Greek National Defense in the aftermath of the Imia crisis: The
concept of flexible retaliation, in C. Yiallourides-P. Tsakonas, Greece and Turkey in
the post Cold War Era, New York 2001
,
, , .11, . 2000
- ,
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1999
S. Alifantis-P. Kofakis, Crisis-Eval: A crisis information analysis and evaluation
system, http://www.imm.gr/Study-Centers/Crisis/Crisis-Eval.pdf,
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Michael
Brecher & Hemda Ben Yehuda A. George P. Williams.

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Michael BRECHER & Hemda Ben YEHUDA

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M.Haas (1974: 336-56),
21
,
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and Nye (1977), Lampert (1980),
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O Brecher
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. , Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Concepts and Models,
(New York: Pergamon Press, 1993), . 1.
2
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- 118 -

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Arms and Influence, (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1966), . 116-125.
, Phil Williams, "Crisis Mangement" (. 8), J. Baylis, K. Booth, J. Garnett,
and P. Williams, eds., Contemporary Strategy: Theories and Policies, (London: Groom Helm,
1975), . 158-160.
4
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, M. Brecher, . ., . 290-298 (
. ,
M. Brecher Hemda Ben Yehuda, "System and crisis in international politics", Review
of International Studies, No. 11, (1985), . 17-36.
6

M. Mandl, , Le conflit de
faible intensit: analyse d une conception amricaine, Dfence Nationale, Juillet 1995, .
75 - 81.
- 120 -
7. Brecher,
, ,
, ,
. ,
- 8. ,

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.
,
.
8
, ,
, , M. Brecher Hemda Ben Yehuda, "System and crisis
in international politics", . .,

Brecher.
- 121 -
, .
, .

,
,
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, :
(, ),
(,
).

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)9.
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10.
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9
...
status quo, ., , ,
30, 1997, . 16 - 17.
10
(Field Manual 100-20),
, -
,
,

. M. Mandl, . .
- 122 -
,
, ,
"" .
,

" " ( 1),

( , )11.
1: *
* : CSM James J. Gallagher, USA (Ret.), Low-Intensity Conflict: A Guide for Tactics,
Techniques, and Procedures, (Pennsylvania: Stackpole Books, 1992), . 2.
, , ,
. ,
,
, .
,
, (. 81, ).
11
, CSM James J. Gallagher, USA (Ret.), Low-Intensity Conflict: A Guide for Tactics,
Techniques, and Procedures, (Pennsylvania: Stackpole Books, 1992), . 1-3.
- 123 -

.

12. ,
, ""
. ,
, , , ..,
.
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(),
( ),
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.

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(nation at arms),
, . ,
,
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.
,
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.

12
, ,
,

,
. Martin Van Creveld, The Transformation of War,
New York, 1991, .206 - 208.
- 124 -
. , ,
- ( ,

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, .., , ,
, .),
(, 1).
,
.

(limited war). ,

.
()
. ,
,

, Brecher,
, .

(). ,
.
, . (deterrence)
,

. :
13.
13

Snyder,
[] .
(,
). , Glenn H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense : Toward a
Theory of National Security, (Princeton - New Jersey, 1961).
- 125 -
, (coercion) ,
(
) .
, - .

.

. , -
14. ,
.
(defence) ,
.
(perceptions) , (reality)
. , ,
.

15. (offence) /
, ,
.
;
,
.
Snyder 16.
,
.
, :
(1) ,
(1) ,
(1) ,
14
, Schelling, . .,

( )
(
).
15
Snyder,
. .
16
, . 12.
- 126 -
(1)
.
, :
(2) ,
(2) ,
(2) ,
(2) , .

( ),
. , . , :
: 1 1 - 1 1
: 2 2 2 - 2

, .
, (deterrence),
(coercion). ,
(defence),
(offence).
, ,
. , (1.1)
(1.1)17.
,
. ,

,
1.1< 1.1 . ,

, , 2.2.2< 2 .
17
.
,
.
- 127 -
,
, ,

. , (2.2.2<
2), ,
x, ( x
). 2.2.2< x .2 ( x .2> 2) -
post-attack coercion coercion 2. ,
,
.
2.2.2> 2,
(1.1> 1.1).
1:
<
2.2.2 2 <
1.1 1.1
() ()

1.1> 1.1
1.1> 1.1
() & 2.2.2 2>
()
<
2.2.2 x.2
( 2)

,
, (2) , . .
,
: (1)
(1). ,
(1)
(1).
, , .
- 128 -
(1).
(1) (1),
.
1, 1, 1,
.

.
;
1,
.
. ,

(2), (2),
(2), , .

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),
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.

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18
, : ,

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.
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) ( ,
).
,
( )
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- 129 -
(, ,
), , ,

. 2.2.2> 2
(defence).
,
,
( , )
.
2.2.2> 2
.

(, 1948-49,

).
2
, . ,
:
1. ( ) ,
2. ,
3. ,
4. .
.
.
. , ,
. :
1) ,
,
- ( ),
2) ,
,
,
(intrinsic) (power values).

, , .
- 130 -
3) , ,
.
2:

.
.
.
. ,
.
. ,
19.
,
.
,
, (action-reaction effect)20.
, .
. ,
.

,
(
) 21.
19
,
.
, Ole R. Holsti, Crisis Escalation War, (Montreal and London, 1972).
20
/ ( ,
, .), ( /
). Richard Smoke, War: Controlling Escalation, (Massachusetts and London,
1977), . 23 - 26.
21
Smoke
(saliencies) Schelling, :
,
- 131 -
(
) ( ).

,

.

:
22.
, ,
. . ,
1.1> 1.1.
, .
,
(, > x). , 1.1< 1.1.
2.2.2< 2..
,
.
,
, ( )

.
.
,

,

.
3:

. , . 35.
22
, . , ,
: , , 1997, .
26-28.
- 132 -

2 3
1.1> 1.1> 1.1<

1.1 1.1/ 1.1.
offence
2.2.2< 2.2.2<
2 x.2
coercion coercion 2
2.2.2> 2.2.2> 2.2.2<
2 2/ 2.
defence
1.1<
1.1
deterrence
:
x (): .
(): ( ).
: .
, (2)
, ,

(x.2).
,
. ,
,
,
,
, (
). ,
2.2.2< x.2 (coercion 2),
,
1.1> 1.1/, ( 1)
.
,
,
,

. ,

- 133 -
. ,
, 2.2.2> 2/, ,
. 3.
,
, : - - ,
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23.
.
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( , )

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.
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,
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.
.
,
23
(
) , Snyder.
- 134 -
( )
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:
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,
,

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,
24.
,
,
(
).

,
.
- , ,

. ,
,
.
, .
,
,

. ,

,
.
,
.
24
Schelling,
. the idiom of reprisal (. ., . 141-
151).
- 135 -
.
, .
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.
,
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.
.
,
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.

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.

- 137 -
, ,
,
,
.

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,
.

.
- 138 -

- 139 -
, Alexander L. GEORGE
,
Robert McNamara ",
-
". , McNamara
- ,
,
,
.
McNamara,
.
,
3,
. ,

.
, ,

, ,
.
,
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,
.
, McNamara
, . -
McNamara -

- 140 -
.
, ,
, .
3,

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- 141 -

.
,
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,

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("" )

("" ). ,

status quo1.
,

,
.
1
"" ""
.
"/ " ""
. ,
status quo '50,
""
. , ,
.
, Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign
Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), 9
12.
- 142 -

status quo .
: (1) , (2)
, (3) , (4) , (5)
.
( , ),
()
, .

. ,
:
, ,
, ,

2.
.

. ,

.
.
, .

.
1. (Blackmail)
2

, Janice Gross Stein,
"Deterrence and Reassurance", Philip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, Paul
Stern and Charles Tilly, eds., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, Vol. 2 (New York: Oxford
University Press, 1991).
- 143 -
(
)
,
.
,
( )
. , ,

,
.
, ,

.
,
,
. ,

. ,
,
(
),
.

; , ,
.
, ""
.
status quo ,
,
,
.
,
.

(,
),
- 144 -

. ,
,

,
status quo,
. ,

,
.

,
. ,

,

,
. ,
. ,

.

.
.
""
,
,
. ,

,
.
, ,
. ,

,
- 145 -

.

.
"" 1958-59

19613.
2. , (the limited, reversible probe)4
,

status quo,
,
. ,
status quo, .

status quo. ,

status quo.
status quo,

, ( )
. ,

status quo,
,
.
3
, George and Smoke, Deterrence,
13 14.
4
George and Smoke, Deterrence. , .
540-543. ,

1948-49
- 146 -

.

status quo,
,
, .
, ,
,
. ,

, status quo,
.
,
status quo. ,
status quo,

. ,

status quo,
.
,
,
. .

, .

.
1961.
1954-55 1958.
- 147 -
3. (the strategy of controlled pressure)5
,
status quo.
, status quo
, ,
.
,
status quo, ,

.

status quo,
, " "
,

.

.
1948-
49, 1958-59 1961.
,
.

.
,
status
quo.

( ).
5
543-547. ,

.
- 148 -
,
, , ,
.
, ,
( ) ,
( ) ,
. ,
.
, Christer Jnsson
1956,
. , ,
, status quo
.
4. (the fait accompli strategy)6
,
.

.
.

status quo, ,
,
status quo
.
1954-55
1958.
6
536-540. ,
1956 1968,
.
,
1950, ,
, 1956
Christer Jnsson 9 ( ).
- 149 -
( ,
,
,
).
,
, ,
status quo,
. ,

,
. ,
status quo,

.
,
.
, , ,

. ,
,
, 1956
Jnsson 9 ( ). ,

.
,
-
. , ,
status quo
-

1950.
5. (the attrition strategy)
- 150 -
, status quo
.

.
,
,
, .
,
( 1969-70),

. ,
(
1979,
1969 - )

,
.

status quo
.
,
.
, ,
(
).
: (1)
, (2)
,
, (3)
,
- 151 -
, (4) " "
,
(5) , (6)
, (7)

,
.
1. (coercive diplomacy)7
( "compellance",
8)

- ,
.

.
, .
,
(
) . ,

. ,

.
, ,
. ,

. ( )
, , ,
.
7
A. L. George, D. K. Hall, and W. E. Simons, The
Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown, 1971).
8
" "
"". , ""
. "" (blackmail)
.
- 152 -

;
( )
, ,

. ,
. -
,
1965 -
,
. ,
,
,
.

, , ,

.
( ,

1956)
( , 1941,
, ),
.
:
:
1. ,
2.
,

3.

,
.
,
1941,
- 153 -
. ,
,
.

,
.
,
9.
.
:
, ,
,
,
.

. ,
.

.
, , ,
,
.
.
,
("try-and-see"). ,
- , -
.
,
. .

. , ,

. ,
9
Cf. Paul Gordon Lauren, "Ultimata and Coercive Diplomacy", International Studies
Quarterly, 16 (1972): 131-165.
- 154 -

. .
,
.

.

. ,
,
, ,
. ,
.

. ,
,
,
.
, ,
,
.
,

, .
,

10. ,
10
( ). ,
,
. , (1)
, (2)

,
, , (3)

, (4)
,
, (5)

- 155 -
.

,
, (
) ,
.
, ,

,
. ,
,

.
,

,
,
Jupiter .
,
" " , ,
, . ,
, ( ),
, , ,
.

,
. ,
,
.

.
, ,
, (6)

, (7)

- 156 -
, .

. ,
.
,
,
.
,
. ,
, ,
.
,
,
.
, , ,
, . ,
. ( )
,
( )
. ,
,
,
.
.
,

.
,
.
- ,
. ,
,
,
.
. , George, 4 (
24-25).
- 157 -
2.
(limited escalation)

,
. ,
-
-
,
. ,
,
,
.
,
,
,
.

- ,
.
, .

,
,
.
Bar-Siman-Tov
( ),
. ,

, ,
,
,
. ,
.
- 158 -

. ,
.
.
" "
. ,

. "
" .

, .

.
.

1948, .

.
3.
(tit-for-tat)

,
, .
,
.

.
,
, .
, -
- 159 -
1969 -

, .

,
.
,
.
- 1969,
,

.
4.
(test of capabilities)

. ,
status quo,

.

,
, ,
.
,
,
,
( ) ,

.

,
. ,
,
- 160 -
, (
1958),
.

( )
1948
1958.
5. (the strategy of "drawing a line")
,
(
),
. , ,

. ,
.
, -
,
. ,

,
. , ,
, ,
,
"" , ,
.

,
. ,
.
, 11.
11

,
Richard Ned Lebow, Nuclear Crisis Management: A Dangerous Illusion (Ithaca, N.Y.:
Cornell University Press, 1987), . 104-109.
- 161 -
,
,
,
1950, , .
, ,
12.
,
,
. ,
, ( ) 1977-
78,
.
,
1983,
,
13.
6.
(conveying commitment and resolve)
.
,
. , .

status quo,
.
.
, , ,
status quo.

,
12
,
, George and Smoke, Deterrence, 6.
13
, Larry C. Napper, "The Ogaden War: Some Implications
for Crisis Prevention", . 10, A. L. George, ed., Managing U.S.-Soviet Rivalry
(Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1983).
- 162 -
()
. , status quo

- , .
,
status quo.
, :
, ;

, . ,
, ,

.
,
Stan A. Taylor Theodore J. Ralston,
(surprise attack).
,
,
. ,
,
.

, , , .
, ,

, .
. ,
,

.
status quo,
.

,
- 163 -

14.
, ,
, ;
,
( )
.
status
quo,

.
, ,
, 15.
, ,
, 16.
,

, .
,
,
.

.
, ,

14
, George and Smoke,
Deterrence, . 572-576.
15
,
: (1)
,
(2)

(, ), (3)
status quo,

.
16

Janice Gross Stein Richard Ned Lebow
""
(, 2).
- 164 -
17.
.

status quo. ,
,
,
18.
, ,
,
,
,
.
7.
(buying time)
status quo ,
,

. ,
(
) , .

.
,
17
, ,
1954-55
,
.

( ) , ,
1958. ,
George and Smoke, Deterrence, . 9 12.
18
1961
, .

1961,
.
- 165 -
, ,
.
,
,
, ,
.

.

- ,
.

,
.
, ,
.
,

. , ,

,
.
1948
.

.
,
. ,
, ,
- -
.

, George and Smoke, Deterrence, . 576-580.
- 166 -

status quo ,
. ,

. ,
, ,
. ,
,
,
.

,
, ,
.
- 167 -
Phil WILLIAMS
. :
" . . . , . .
. .
".
,
1.
,
,

.
.
,
, ,
.

.

' .

.

.

.
. ,
" "
1
O. R. Olsti, Crisis, Escalation, War
(Montreal and London: Mc Gill - Queen' s University Press, 1972).
- 168 -

2.

. ,
,
,

3.

.

.

.
,
, .

. ,
" "4.

,
" ",
.

5.
2
T. C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven and London: Yale University Press,
1966), . 3.
3
O. R. Young, The Politics of Force: Bargaining
during Superpower Crises (Princeton University Press, 1968),

.
4
" " A. L.
George, D. K. Hall, W. E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy:
Laos, Cuba, Vietnam (Boston: Little Brown, 1971).
5
C. F. Hermann (ed.), International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research (New
York: Free Press, 1972).
- 169 -
,
,
, . ,

,

6.
,
.
, , ,
.

,
. ,

.
,
. ,
,
,
.
,

. ,

.
. ,
. ,
,

. ,
,
6
Olsti, . .
- 170 -
.
,
. ,

.

.
, 1945

. ,

,
. Glenn Snyder:

,
,
, .

7.
,
, .

,

.
.
, , William
Kaufmann. Kaufmann ,
" ,
7
G. H. Snyder, "Crisis Bargaining", Herman, . ., . 220.
- 171 -
"8.
1945
.
. , , "
" 9. ,
.
,
. .
, .

. ""
""

.
' .
.

.
,
10.
1914
,

11. ,

. 1930 ,

,
.
.
8
W. W. Kaufmann, Military Policy and National Security (Princeton: Princeton University
Press, 1956), . 262.
9
T. C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (New York: Oxford University Press, 1963),
. 9.
10
1914
I. F. Clarke, Voices Prophesying War (London: Oxford University Press, 1966).
11
B. Tuchman, August 1914 (London: Constable, 1962). ,
L. L. Farrar Jr., The Short-War Illusion (Oxford: ABC-CLIO Inc., 1973).
- 172 -
1914 . ,
.
,
'30.

, ,

. , ,
,

.

1945.

.
,
.

. ,
.

.

, ,

.
-
,
, ,
, ,

12.

.
,
- 173 -
- . ,
13.
,
14. Stanley Hoffman
"" (game of chicken),
'
15.
,
16.
,
. " " ,
" " 17.
()

.

. Snyder, "

"18. ,
:
. ,

(
) ,

. ,
. , ,
,
12
K. Boulding, Conflict and Defence (New York: Harper, 1962), . 314.
13
Young, . .
14

, M. D. Shulman, Beyond
The Cold War (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1966), . 5.
15
S. Hoffmann, The State of War: Essays on the Theory and Practice of International
Politics (London: Pall Mall, 1965), . 142.
16
F. L. Schuman, The Cold War: Retrospect and Prospect (Baton Rouge: Louisiana
State University Press, 1967), . 72.
17
Schelling, Arms and Influence, . ., . 120.
18
Snyder, . ., . 240.
- 174 -
,

,
.

19.
-

-
,

,
. ,
,
. ,
,
20. ,
, ,

.
, ,
. ,
. ,

. ,

. ,
.

, ,
19
G. Snyder, . ., . 240-55.
20
Snyder, . ., . 241-2,
"" " "
"
". , T. Schelling, Arms and Influence, . ., . 97.
- 175 -

.

.
, , ,
21.
I.
.
,

.
.
,
,

.
.

' . ,
, , "
"22. ,
,
(chicken game)
,
23.
21

Hannes Adomeit "Risk and Crisis: Concepts and
Processes".
'Soviet Risk-Taking and Crisis Behaviour',
Adelphi Paper No. 101, (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1973).
22
H. Kahn, On Escalation: Metaphors
and Scenarios (New York: Praeger, 1965).
23
. , Schelling, Arms and Influence, . ., . 116-25,
.
- 176 -
, ,
.

.

. , ,
.
,
,
.

.
, .
,
, " "24.

,
. , ,
, .
,
" ".
,
.

.
,
. - -
.
,
.

, .
24
Schelling, Arms and
Influence, . ., . 43-44. , Young, .
., . 9, "Freedom of Choice".
- 177 -
,
, ,
.
, ,

,
25. ,

,
,
.
.
,

26. ,

. ,
.
-
-
. ,
" "

27.
,
.
.

-
25
Snyder, . ., . 237.
26
R. Jervis The Logic of Images in International
Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970).
27
Schelling, Arms and Influence, . ., . 36-43,
. , The Strategy of Conflict, . ., . 16-20,
.
- 178 -

.

.

.
"
"28. :
,
,
. ,
.

.
.
V.

,

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( )

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1.2.
1.3.
1.4.
2.
2.1. .
2.2.
2.2.1.
2.2.2
2.2.3.
2.2.4.
2.3.
3.
3.1.
3.2.
3.2.1. ;

...
3.2.2. ;
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. ,
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. ,
. ,
. , ,
,
. ,
.

.15

. ,
,
.
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. ,
.

.
,
, ,

.16
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Ken Booth . ,
, ,
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,

.

. ,
.
,
.17
, , ,
: )
, ) - )
.18
.
.
,
. ,
(brinkmanship)
.19
.
.
, ,
.
,
, .
. ,
. ,
o ,
,
.
.20 ,
,
.
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Michael Brecher, Introduction: Crisis, Conflict, War-State of the Discipline,
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,
.
.
.21
.
,
.22
, , .
, , .23 ,
,
, .
, .24 ,
.25
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, ,
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Glenn Snyder, Deterrence..., .., . 107-108.
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.25 ,

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. . Bernard Brodie, The Anatomy of Deterrence, World Politics, . , .
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, .27
, ,
.28 ,
.
.
. , , ,
.
Mearsheimer ,
, .
(Blitzkrieg),
,
.29 ,
,
.30
, -.31
,
, .
.32
, ,
,
, , ,
, . ,
,
. ,

,
. ,
.
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, . ,
. ,
. ,

. ,
,
: ) ,
, )
,
. , .

. ,
,
.33 , .
2.2.2.
(strategy of coercive diplomacy)

.34

.
. ,

.35 ,

.

. ,
,

. ,
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,
, .

.36
,
, .
33
. J. Holsti, International Politics, .., . 257, Phil Williams, Deterrence, .., .
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36
Ibid, .., . 209.
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, .
.37
,
.

(strategy of
coercion) .

.38
, .
. ,

.
.39
,
.
.
, ,

.40 ,

.41
2.2.3.
,
,
.42 .43
37
homas Schelling, The Diplomacy of Violence, John Garnett (ed.), Theories of
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38
. Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft, .., . 197.
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. Alexander L. George, Strategies for Crisis Management, .., . 384-387.
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Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft, .., . 197-198
Alexander L. George, Strategies for Crisis Management, .. . 384
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Bernard Brodie, Limited War, .., . 219-221.
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.44
,
.
.

.45
.46 ,
.
.
.47

.48 ,
. ,
.

, ,
.49
,

.

.
2.2.4.
.
, , ,
(preventive war) (preemptive attack).

44
Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, .., . 6. ,
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.

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, .
,
.

, , .51
.
. :
,

,
,
. ,

. ,
. ,
.
.52

. ,
.
,
. ,
.53

, ..

.54 ,
.55 ,

. ,
,
50
Richard K. Betts, Surprise Attack, The Brookings Institution,
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51
bid, . 11.
52
bid, . 4, 5, 23 111-118.
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. ,
Aaron L. Friedberg, The Assessment of Military Power,
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53
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55

.
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.56 ,
,
. ,
,
, .
,
. ,
,
. ,
.
,
.
2.3.
, , .
,
.
, ,
, ,
, .57 ,

.58
,
.
,
.
,
, ,
,
.59

.
.
,
. ,
, ,
56

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.
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Phil Williams, Crisis Management, John Baylis, et.al., Contemporary Strategy, ..,
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, ,
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.
,
.
,
.61
,
,62
,

, . ,

.

. 63
,
,
.64

,
. :
,
. ,
,

,
, ,
.
,

. ,
,
,
. ,
60
Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft, .., . 214-215, 223-
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. Michael I. Handel, Clausewitz in the Age of Technology, Michael I. Handel
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. John J. Weltman, World Politics and the Evolution of War, The Johns Hopkins
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Gordon A. Craig and
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,
,
, ,

.
.

,
. :
,
, ,65
-
,
,
. ,
,
,
.
.66
,
.
, ,
.67
,
,
.
.

,
,

.

.
,

. ,
,
,
,
65
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66

.
,
Phil Williams,
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67

. , ,
. Ibid,
.160
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.
. )
) )
)
)
.

.
,
. ,

.68
:

.
,
,
,
. .
, .
,
. ,
, ,
,
,

.
68
Ibid, . 155.
- 263 -
3.
3.1 69
26 1995
,
.
()

.
29 .
,
.
9 1996

.
, , 16 ,
,
.

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.
( 22 )
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69
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- 264 -

, 29
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- 265 -
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: ) .

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. Waltz
,

.70 ,
,
.
, .
,
.
, , ,
, .
,
( ) (
) ... ( ).

.
.
70
. Kenneth N. Waltz, heory of International Politics, .., . 65.
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,
.
3.2.1. ;
;
;
; ,
, ...

. ,

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.

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- 267 -

.71 ,
.

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.

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, .

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,
.
,
, ,
.
.
71
,
. . Robert Jervis,
Deterrence and Perception, International Security, . 7, . 3, 1982/1983.
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,
, .
, .
.
,
,

.
,
,

.
,
,
- .
, ,
, ,
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...
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. ,
,
, .

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...
- .
, ,
. , ...

,
.72
72
.
a
war in which there is a reasonable probability of a new decisive victory by at least one side
that could lead to the emergence of a new dominant or leading power, and hence to the
- 269 -
, ... ,
.
,
.
, .
, ,
.
.
. , ,
,
, .
,
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, .

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.

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.
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;
,
,
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. ,
:
,
.
.

.
:
. ,
,
.
; ,
:
;
structural transformation. Jack S. Levy, Theories of General War, World Politics, .

XXVII, . 3, 1985, . 364.
- 270 -
,
45 ,
, .
,
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,

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- 271 -
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.73
3.2.3. ;

,

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- .
,
.

. ,

.

, ,
. ,

.

.

,
73
,
, ,
, ,

. , Lieutenant General
Dimitrios Skarvelis, Freedom in Valour-Mission and Role of the Army, NATOs Sixteen
Nations, , . 1, 1993 Vice Admiral Ioannis Stagas N.N., The Hellenic
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,
. , , . ,
, , 7
1996, . 34-36.
, ,
3 1/2 6 ,
. 34.
,

,

. , , 19 1996, . 11.
- 272 -
. ,
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...
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- 273 -
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- 274 -

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,74
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...,

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,

- ,75

,76
, - ,
,
,

.

.
74
. Michael Brecher, Crisis Escalation..., .., . 219. , , Robert S.
Chase, Emily B. Hill, Paul Kennedy, Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy, Foreign Affairs, .
75, . 1, / 1996 Graham E. Fuller and John Arquilla, The
Intractable Problem of Regional Powers, Orbis, . 40, . 4, 1996.
75
, , , 1990, . 22.
76
Ibid, . 23.
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:
, -
,

,
,
,
,

, ,

,
,
,

.

. , ...
.
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.

,

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.

.77
. ,
.
,
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, -

, ) ,
.
. ,
,

- .78
77
, Jack Snyder, The Concept of Strategic
Culture: Caveat Emptor, Carl G. Jacobsen (ed.), Strategic Power USA/USSR,
Macmillan, London 1990 Ken Booth, The Concept of Strategic Culture Affirmed,
Carl G. Jacobsen (ed.), Strategic Power, ...
78

. ,

- 276 -
,
, ,
,
.
.
.
, ,
.
,
. ,

,
, .
87 76
. ,
,
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: ,

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:
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:
,
: ,
.
4.

,

.
: ) ,
. )
,

) -
....
. Harold E. Shear and Bruce L. Valley, The

Armed Forces of Turkey, The Royal United Service Institute for Defence Studies,
Defence Yearbook 1981, RUSI and Brasseys, London, 1980, . 117-118.
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. ,
. ,
. ,
, ,

.
.
.
,
.
, , ,
.

.

. ,
, ,
.
,

.

, 76 87,
. ,
.
,
, .
,
, .
,
,
. .
.
.

.
.
, ,
. , ,

.
.
,

.79 , , ,
, :
79
. Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining Decision
Making and Systems Structure in International Crises, Princeton University Press, Princeton
1977, . 455.
- 278 -
.
,
,
(, , .).
,
.
, ,
. ,
.
, . ,
.80 ,

,

. ,

.
, ,
.
,
. , . ,
,
.
,
,
.
80

. . ,
,
. Phil Williams, Crisis Management: From Cuba to
Sarajevo, Ken Booth, New Thinking About Strategy, .., . 140.
- 279 -

Brecher, ,
- -
:
- -
accommodation change
actor change power change

alliance change alliance change

attributes actor change

boundaries interaction
breakpoint superpower
involvement
change disequilibrium
context heterogeneity
de-escalation dissimilar
disequilibrium reversibility
disintegrative reversible
disruptive de-escalation
dissimilar number of actors
distortion instability
distribution of violence
- 280 -
power
environment geostrategic
salience
equilibrium process
escalation structure
exitpoint severity
geostrategic issue
salience
heterogeneity equilibrium
importance rules of the game

instability distribution of
power
integrative escalation
interaction steplevel
irreversibility irreversibility

irreversible irreversible
issue disintegrative
number of actors similar
power change boundaries
process distortion
reversibility environment
reversible context
rules of the game trigger

severity accommodation
similar disruptive
stability exitpoint
steplevel breakpoint
structure importance
superpower stability
involvement
termination integrative
trigger termination
violence attributes
1 Stelios Alifantis, Greek National Defense in the aftermath of the Imia crisis:
The concept of flexible retaliation, in C. Yiallourides-P. Tsakonas, Greece
and Turkey in the post Cold War Era, New York 2001
2 ,
, , .11, . 2000
- 281 -
3 M. Brecher, Crisis in World Politics, Pergamon Press, 1993
4 M. Brecher, Crisis in World Politics, op.cit.
5 ,
, & 2001,
, 2001
6 M. Brecher, Crisis in World Politics, op.cit.
7 L. Bloomfield-A. Moulton, Managing International Conflict: From Theory to
Practice, M.I.T., St. Martin Press, N.Y. 1997
8 : http://www.imm.gr/Study-Centers/Crisis/crisiseval-gr.html
9 - ,
, -
, 1999
10 , Crisis Eval, :
, FYROM:
, , 2003
11 ibid
12 ibid
13 , FYROM:
, , 2003
14 , , ,
, 2001
15 :
FYROM, ibid.
16
Stephen M. Walt, The Renaissance of Security Studies, International Studies Quarterly,
Vol. 35, No. 2 (1991), . 212.
17
Richard H. Ullman, Redefining Security, International Security, Vol. 8,
No. 1 (1983), . 129-153; Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Redefining Security, Foreign
Affairs, Vol. 68, No. 2 (1989), . 162-177; Theodore C. Sorensen, Rethinking National
Security, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 69, No. 3 (1990), . 1-18.
18
: )

Sun Tzu, Machiavelli Clausewitz
Mackinder, )

- 282 -
.
Neta C. Crawford, Once and Future Security Studies, Security Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2
(1991), . 283-316.
19
Ole Wver, ,
-
. ,
Wver ,
-
. Ole Wver, Aberystwyth, Paris, Copenhagen New 'Schools' in Security
Theory and their Origins between Core and Periphery, paper delivered at the ISA
Conference, Montreal, 17-20 February 2004,
http://zope.polforsk1.dk/securitytheory/waevermontreal/.

,

.
20
: Bill
McSweeney, Identity and Security: Buzan and the Copenhagen School, Review of
International Studies, Vol. 22, No. 1 (1996), . 81-96.
21
Barry Buzan, People, States & Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the
Post-Cold War Era, 2nd edition (Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1991).
22
Ole Wver, Security The Speech Act: Analysing the Politics of a Word, Copenhagen:
Center for Peace and Conflict Research, Working Paper 19/1989.
23
Michael C. Williams, Words, Images, Enemies: Securitization and International Politics,
International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 4 (2003), . 512-521; Jef Huysmans,
Revisiting Copenhagen: Or, On the Creative Development of a Security Studies Agenda in
Europe, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 4, No. 4 (1998), . 482-483.
24

, , , .
Carsten Bagge Laustsen and Ole
Wver, In Defence of Religion: Sacred Referent Objects for Securitization, Millennium:
Journal of International Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3 (2000), . 705-739.
25
Barry Buzan, Ole Wver and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis
(Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), . 36.
26
Ibid., . 22-23.
27
Ibid., . 7.
- 283 -
28
Barry Buzan and Richard Little, International Systems in World History: Remaking the
Study of International Relations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), . 72-77.
29
Ole Wver, Securitizing Sectors? Reply to Eriksson, Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 34,
No. 3 (1999), . 335.
30
Ibid.
31
Barry Buzan and Ole Wver, Slippery? Contradictory? Sociologically Untenable? The
Copenhagen School Replies, Review of International Studies, Vol. 23, No. 2 (1997), .
246.
32
Barry Buzan, Ole Wver and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework, . 21.
33
Barry Buzan, Rethinking Security After the Cold War, Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.
32, No. 1 (1997), . 14; Ibid.
34
Ibid., . 23-24.
35
Ole Wver, Barry Buzan, Morten Kelstrup, Pierre Lemaitre, et al. Identity, Migration and
the New Security Agenda in Europe (London: Pinter Publishers Ltd., 1993), . 189; Ole
Wver, Insecurity, Security and Asecurity in the West European Non-war Community, in,
Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett, (eds.), Security Communities (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 1998), . 81.
36
Barry Buzan, Ole Wver and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework, . 25.
37
Ibid., . 26-27.
38
Ole Wver, Securitization-Desecuritization in, Ronnie D. Lipschutz, (ed.), On Security
(New York: Columbia University Press, 1995), . 55.
39
Jef Huysmans, The Question of the Limit: Desecuritisation and the Aesthetics of Horror in
Political Realism, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 27, No. 3 (1998), .
569-589.
40
Nikolaos Tzifakis, Securitization and Desecuritization Dynamics in South Eastern Europe
(1992-1997), PhD Dissertation, (Lancaster: Lancaster University, September 2002).
41
Michael C. Williams and Keith Krause, Preface: Toward Critical Security Studies in,
Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams, (eds.), Critical Security Studies: Concepts and Cases
(London: UCL Press, 1997), . x-xi.
42
Keith Krause, Critical Theory and Security Studies: The Research Programme of Critical
Security Studies, Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 33, No. 3 (1998), . 299.
43
Ibid., . 317.
44
Ibid.
45
Michael C. Williams, Identity and the Politics of Security, European Journal of
International Relations, Vol. 4, No. 2 (1998), . 208-217.
46
Ibid.
- 284 -
47
Simon Dalby, Contesting an Essential Concept: Reading the Dilemmas in Contemporary
Security Discourse in, Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams, (eds.), Critical Security
Studies, . 9.
48
Ibid.
49
Ibid. . 14.
50
Ibid., . 15.
51
Michael G. Dillon, The Alliance of Security and Subjectivity, Current Research of Peace
and Violence, Vol. XIII, No. 3 (1990), . 115.
52
David Campbell and Michael Dillon, The End of Philosophy and the End of International
Relations in, David Campbell and Michael Dillon, (eds.), The Political Subject of Violence
(Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1993), . 1-47.
53
Michael G. Dillon, The Alliance of Security and Subjectivity, . 114.
54
Michael G. Dillon, Modernity, Discourse and Deterrence, Current Research on Peace
and Violence, Vol. XII, No. 2 (1989), . 101-102; Karsten Friis, From Liminars to Others:
Securitization through Myths, Peace and Conflict Studies, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2000),
http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/Friis72PCS.htm.
55
Jef Huysmans, Security! What Do You Mean? From Concept to Thick Signifier,
European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 4, No. 2 (1998), . 239.
56
David Campbell, Writing Security: United States Foreign Policy and the Politics of Identity
(Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1992), . 12.
57
Simon Dalby, . 24.
58
Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams, From Strategy to Security: Foundations of Critical
Security Studies in, Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams, (eds.), Critical Security Studies:
Concepts and Cases, . 43.
59
Ken Booth, Security and Emancipation, Review of International Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4
(1991), . 318; Andrew Mack, A Signifier of Shared Values, Security Dialogue, Vol. 35,
No. 3 (2004), . 366.
60
-
. inter alia Michael
Dillon, Politics of Security: Towards a Political Philosophy of Continental Thought (London:
Routledge 1996); Costas Constantinou, Poetics of Security, Alternatives, Vol. 25, No. 3
(2000), . 287-306.
61
Kanti Bajpai, Human Security: Concept and Measurement, Kroc Institute Occasional
Paper, Vol. 19, No. 1 (August 2000), . 37,
http://www.nd.edu/~krocinst/ocpapers/op_19_1.PDF.
- 285 -
62
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 1994 (New
York: Oxford University Press, 1994), . 23, http://www.undp.org/hdro/1994/94.htm.
63
Owen Taylor, Human Security Conflict, Critique and Consensus: Colloquium Remarks
and a Proposal for a Threshold-Based Definition, Security Dialogue, Vol. 35, No. 3 (2004),
. 377.
64
inter alia Keith Krause, The Key to a Powerful Agenda, if Properly Delimited,
Security Dialogue, Vol. 35, No. 3 (2004), . 367-368.
65
inter alia Fen Osler Hampson, A Concept in Need of a Global Policy Response,
66
Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams, From Strategy to Security..., . 46.
67
Barry Buzan, Ole Wver and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework, . 207-208.
68
Barry Buzan, A Reductionist, Idealistic Notion that Adds Little Analytical Value,
69
Lene Hansen, The Little Mermaids Silent Security Dilemma and the Absence of Gender
in the Copenhagen School, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 29, No. 2
(2000), . 285-306.
70
Barry Buzan, Rethinking Security After the Cold War, . 19-21.
71

,
, Jef Huysmans, Defining Social Constructivism in
Security Studies: The Normative Dilemma of Writing Security, Alternatives, Vol. 27,
Special Issue (2002), . 41-62.
1
Joseph Nye. "Europe is too Powerful to be Ignored." Financial Times, 11
March 2003,
Lily Gardner Feldman, The Implications of EU Enlargement for the EU as an International Political
Actor: Opportunities and Risks in Cathleen S. Fisher (Ed.), EU Enlargement And Transatlantic
Relations: Background Analyses, AICGS Policy Report no 7, 2003
2
Timo Behr, US attitudes towards Europe: a shift of paradigms? Notre
Europe, Research and European Issues N29, November 2003
3
Lily Gardner Feldman, Cooperative Differences in U.S. and EU Balkans Policies: An American
Perspective on the Political Dimension, AICGS German Issues Volume 26 2001
4
Angela Stent A New Security Agenda for U.S.-German-Russian Relations: Interim Report. AICGS,
Washington, D.C.: 2002, Trans-Atlantic Relations: Germany's Tight-Rope Walk Between Russia
and the US, 20-12-2004 http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,333756,00.html,
5
Ulrike Gurot, Constitutionalization in an Enlarging Europe in Cathleen S. Fisher
(Ed.), EU Enlargement And Transatlantic Relations: Background Analyses, AICGS
Policy Report no 7, 2003
- 286 -
6
, " :
", , 36, / 1995, . 105-114.
7
Katrin Bennhold, EUs inner club grows less exclusive, IHT Wednesday, June 23,
2004
8
Joseph Quinlan, Drifting Together or Growing Together? The Primacy of the Transatlantic Economy
Center for Transatlantic Relations, The Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C., 2003, Daniel S.
Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan, Partners in Prosperity: The Changing Geography of the Transatlantic
Economy, Center for Transatlantic Relations, The Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C., 2003
9
Where is the EU heading? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3659659.stm
10
Jean-Louis Quermonne, Andras Maurer, Joaquim Schild, Renaud Dehousse,
Jean Nestor, The new institutional Architecture of the European
Union: a franco-german third way? Notre Europe, Research and European Issues
N23,April 2003
11
Martin Koopmann, A driving force despite everything: Franco-German relations and the Enlarged
European Union, Notre Europe, Studies & Research N36, August 2004
12
Philip Gordon and Stephen F. Szabo, Parting Ways: The Crisis in German-American Relations,
Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C 2004
13
Philip H. Gordon, Franco-German Security Cooperation in a Changing Context, in: Franco-German
Relations and European Integration: A Transatlantic Dialogue, AICGS, The Johns Hopkins University
Washington, DC, 1999
14
Matt Browne, Carlos Closa, Soren Dosenrode, Franciszek Draus, Philippe de Schoutheete, Jeremy
Shapiro, A view from outside: the franco-german couple as seen by their partners, Notre Europe,
Research and European Issues N33, April 2004
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"" -

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- 288 -

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, Michael BRECHER & Hemda

, Alexander L. GEORGE...................................... 140

Phil WILLIAMS ......................................................................... 168

Crisis Indexes / Statistics

(1988), Midlarsky (1989b), Brecher and Wilkenfeld (1991).

, - Singer and Small

Young (1968a: 23),

. , Gilpin (1981: 156-85)

(intrinsic) (power values).

1.1> 1.1> 1.1<

2. , (the limited, reversible probe)4

4. (the fait accompli strategy)6

5. (the attrition strategy)

5. (the strategy of "drawing a line")

" " " "

"" "". '

Turkey in The New World, Strategic Review, . XXII, . 1, 1994, ,

Security, . 2, . 4, 1978. Richard K. Betts, Nuclear Blackmail and

(strategy of coercive diplomacy)

structural transformation. Jack S. Levy, Theories of General War, World Politics, .

. Harold E. Shear and Bruce L. Valley, The

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