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August 26, 2010

For Whom the Bell Tolls


Builder Toll Brothers Pops Despite More Dismal Housing Data
Markets absorbed more bad housing data yesterday as new home sales
unexpectedly plunged more than 12% for July and posted the worst seasonally
adjusted sales pace since record keeping began back in 1963. However, bottom
feeders took control and some builders saw pops in their share prices.
TOLL BROTHERS INC. (TOL) benefited from this buying. TOLL BROTHERS INC.
designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and
attached homes in middle and high income residential communities in thirteen states
and five regions around the country. TOLL BROTHERS posted decent numbers
Wednesday, but did mention that there have been fewer contracts signed since teh
first few weeks of May.
ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for TOLL BROTHERS.
Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that
TOLL BROTHERS has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for
the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE company size, expected EPS growth
and volatility. Our models have liked this ticker for a while now. It shares this ranking
with KB Home (KBH.)
Of course, it remains to be seen as to whether the bottom feeders are
right. Data is particular bad for housing right now and our own Chief Market Strategist
Richard Suttmeier finds that housing must still decline an additional 30% for prices to
match pre-bubble levels. Inventories of pre-existing homes are back up over the 12
month level and there are still a massive number of foreclosures which must be wrung
out of the system. It is difficult to see how the market absorbs all the foreclosures, short
sales, etc. without there being additional downward pressures on prices and--by
extension--builders.
Subscribers can check out the latest figures on TOLL BROTHERS from our models
HERE
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MARKET OVERVIEW
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued 79.02%
Stocks Overvalued 20.98%
Stocks Undervalued by 20% 46.69%
Stocks Overvalued by 20% 6.57%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Last 12- P/E
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation
MReturn Ratio
Basic Industries 0.61% -6.06% 14.21% 11.09% undervalued 31.07% 23.08
Capital Goods 0.38% -9.29% 3.96% 17.06% undervalued 6.70% 19.08
Consumer Durables 0.86% -8.50% 1.90% 21.37% undervalued 20.99% 17.64
Consumer Non-Durables 0.59% -5.43% -1.03% 11.49% undervalued 16.58% 16.07
Consumer Services 0.74% -7.58% -1.89% 19.60% undervalued 9.26% 19.92
Energy 0.15% -7.36% -8.26% 8.48% undervalued 26.82% 24.9
Finance 0.52% -6.44% 4.63% 15.54% undervalued 1.18% 16.86
Health Care 0.98% -4.38% 9.87% 23.02% undervalued 1.15% 18.75
Public Utilities 0.53% -4.49% -5.28% 10.35% undervalued 9.60% 17.84
Technology 0.18% -5.63% 1.73% 20.55% undervalued 16.53% 23.53
Transportation 0.57% -9.28% -1.01% 13.86% undervalued 10.16% 16.41

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