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Value of Information in Decision Trees PDF
Value of Information in Decision Trees PDF
in Decision Trees
19
19.1 VALUE OF INFORMATION
Useful concept for
Evaluating potential information-gathering activities
Comparing importance of multiple uncertainties
0.3
Introduce Product Medium Sales
$100,000
-$300,000 $400,000
0.2
Low Sales
1 -$200,000
$100,000
Don't Introduce
$0
$0
0.3
Introduce Product Medium Sales
$100,000
$190,000
0.2
Low Sales
1 -$200,000
$190,000
Don't Introduce
$0
The two figures above show what is called the prior problem, i.e., the decision problem under
uncertainty before obtaining any additional information.
19.2 Expected Value of Perfect Information 225
High Sales
Don't Introduce
High Sales
Don't Introduce
High Sales
Don't Introduce
Before you get a perfect prediction, you are uncertain about what that prediction will be.
If you originally think the probability of High Sales is 0.5, then you should also think the
probability is 0.5 that a perfect prediction will tell you that sales will be high.
After you get a prediction of "High Sales," the probability of actually having high sales is 1.0.
226 Chapter 19 Value of Information in Decision Trees
0.0
Introduce Product Medium Sales
$100,000
$400,000
0.5 0.0
"High Sales" Low Sales
1 -$200,000
$400,000
Don't Introduce
$0
0.0
High Sales
$400,000
1.0
Introduce Product Medium Sales
$100,000
$100,000
0.3 0.0
Perfect Prediction "Medium Sales" Low Sales
1 -$200,000
$230,000 $100,000
Don't Introduce
$0
0.0
High Sales
$400,000
0.0
Introduce Product Medium Sales
$100,000
-$200,000
0.2 1.0
"Low Sales" Low Sales
2 -$200,000
$0
Don't Introduce
$0
Introduce Product
0.5 $400,000
High Sales
1
$400,000
Don't Introduce
$0
Introduce Product
0.3 $100,000
Perfect Prediction Medium Sales
1
$230,000 $100,000
Don't Introduce
$0
Introduce Product
0.2 -$200,000
Low Sales
2
$0
Don't Introduce
$0
Figure 19.6 Payoff Table for Prior Problem with Expected Values
Alternatives
Probability Event Introduce Don't
0.5 High Sales $400,000 $0
0.3 Medium Sales $100,000 $0
0.2 Low Sales -$200,000 $0
For each row in the body of the payoff table, if you receive a perfect prediction that the event in
that row will occur, which alternative would you choose and what would your payoff be?
Before you receive the prediction, you don't know which of the payoffs you will receive (either
$400,000 or $100,000 or $0), so you summarize the payoff distribution using expected value,
EVPP.
228 Chapter 19 Value of Information in Decision Trees
Introduce Product
Low Sales
Success Prediction
Don't Introduce
High Sales
Introduce Product
Low Sales
Market Survey Inconclusive
Don't Introduce
High Sales
Introduce Product
Low Sales
Failure Prediction
Don't Introduce
High Sales
Introduce Product
Low Sales
Don't Survey
Don't Introduce
19.3 DriveTek Post-Contract-Award Problem 231
0.5
Electronic success
+$150,000
0.5 Try electronic method +$150,000
Awarded contract
2 +$90,000 0.5
+$90,000 Electronic failure
+$30,000
+$30,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal +$120,000
Try magnetic method +$120,000
+$20,000
+$84,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
$0
No Additional Information
1 1 0.5
+$20,000 +$20,000 Not awarded contract
-$50,000
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic success
+$150,000
0.5 Try electronic method +$150,000
Awarded contract
3 +$90,000 0.5
+$120,000 Electronic failure
+$30,000
+$30,000
1.0
2 Magnetic success
+$30,500 Prepare proposal +$120,000
Try magnetic method +$120,000
+$35,000
+$120,000 0.0
Magnetic failure
$0
0.7 $0
"Magnetic Success"
1 0.5
+$35,000 Not awarded contract
-$50,000
-$50,000
0.5
Perfect Prediction Electronic success
+$150,000
+$30,500 0.5 Try electronic method +$150,000
Awarded contract
2 +$90,000 0.5
+$90,000 Electronic failure
+$30,000
+$30,000
0.0
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal +$120,000
Try magnetic method +$120,000
+$20,000
$0 1.0
Magnetic failure
$0
0.3 $0
"Magnetic Failure"
1 0.5
+$20,000 Not awarded contract
-$50,000
-$50,000
The following decision trees show costs for cash flows, terminal values, and rollback values. The
rollback method uses TreePlans option to minimize cost of immediate successors.
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$50,000
Try electronic $0
$50,000 0.5
Electronic failure
$170,000
$120,000
0.7
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $0
$80,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$120,000
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$50,000
Try electronic $50,000
2 $110,000 0.5
$110,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
0.7
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$116,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$200,000
Figure 19.14 Expected Cost with Perfect Prediction for Electronic Uncertainty
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
1.0
Electronic success
$50,000
0.5 Try electronic $50,000
"Electronic success"
2 $50,000 0.0
$50,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
0.7
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$116,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$83,000 $200,000
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.0
Electronic success
$50,000
0.5 Try electronic $50,000
"Electronic failure"
3 $170,000 1.0
$116,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
0.7
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$116,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$200,000
ECPP(Electronic) = Expected Cost with Perfect Prediction for Electronic Uncertainty = $83,000
EVPI(Electronic) = ECUU ECPP(Electronic) = $110,000 $83,000 = $27,000
234 Chapter 19 Value of Information in Decision Trees
Figure 19.15 Expected Cost with Perfect Prediction for Magnetic Uncertainty
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$50,000
0.7 Try electronic $50,000
"Magnetic success"
3 $110,000 0.5
$80,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
1.0
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$80,000 0.0
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$89,000 $200,000
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$50,000
0.3 Try electronic $50,000
"Magnetic failure"
2 $110,000 0.5
$110,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
0.0
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$200,000 1.0
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$200,000
ECPP(Magnetic) = Expected Cost with Perfect Prediction for Magnetic Uncertainty = $89,000
EVPI(Magnetic) = ECUU ECPP(Magnetic) = $110,000 $89,000 = $21,000
19.3 DriveTek Post-Contract-Award Problem 235
Figure 19.16 Expected Cost with Perfect Prediction for Both Uncertainties
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
1.0
Electronic success
$50,000
0.7 Try electronic $50,000
"Magnetic success"
2 $50,000 0.0
0 $50,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
1.0
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
1.0
Electronic success
$50,000
0.3 Try electronic $50,000
"Magnetic failure"
2 $50,000 0.0
0 $50,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
0.0
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$200,000 1.0
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$71,000 $200,000
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.0
Electronic success
$50,000
0.7 Try electronic $50,000
"Magnetic success"
3 $170,000 1.0
0 $80,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
1.0
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
Use mechanical
$120,000
$120,000
0.0
Electronic success
$50,000
0.3 Try electronic $50,000
"Magnetic failure"
1 $170,000 1.0
0 $120,000 Electronic failure
$170,000
$170,000
0.0
Magnetic success
$80,000
Try magnetic $80,000
$200,000 1.0
Magnetic failure
$200,000
$200,000
236 Chapter 19 Value of Information in Decision Trees
ECPP(Both) = Expected Cost with Perfect Prediction for Both Uncertainties = $71,000
EVPI(Both) = ECUU ECPP(Both) = $110,000 $71,000 = $39,000
EVPI(Electronic) + EVPI(Magnetic) = $27,000 + $21,000 = $48,000
Here, EVPI(Both) EVPI(Electronic) + EVPI(Magnetic)
And, in general, as here, EVPIs are not additive.
In some special cases, EVPI(Two Events) = EVPI(First Event) + EVPI(Second Event)