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When Do You Enter and Exit at All Times
When Do You Enter and Exit at All Times
Trend Following systems have also been reverse engineered to answer these
questions:
Trading: Traders are different. They have a defined strategy to profit in all
climates. Trend following traders do not care what they buy or sell as long as they
make money.
Absolute Returns: Trend Following has above-average performance over the
last 7 decades. The potential to compound wealth is huge.
Up and Down Trends: Trend Following makes money in up or down markets,
bull or bear.
Tail Risk: Michael's unique trend following strategy performs above average when
market bubbles pop, when the Black Swan arrives. For example, trend following
made huge money during the Stock Crash (197374), Black
Monday (1987), Barings Bank (1995), LTCM & Asian Crisis (1998), Stock
Crash (2000-02), 9/11 (2001), Great Recession(2008-09), Oil Market (2014-16)
and Brexit (2016).
Portfolio Diversification: Trend Following returns are uncorrelated to traditional
investments.
Works on All Markets: Trend Following doesn't trade one market alone.
Inefficient Markets: Trend Following goes against the academic nonsense of
the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH).
Research: Trend Following has profited for centuries. Review the third party
research: PDF 1 and PDF 2.
Nurture Beats Nature: Winning traders dont have a special gene, divine gift,
innate talent, inside knowledge or huge starting capital.
Everything Flows: Trend followers react to market movements and follow along--
without a story about why.
Statistical Thinking Is Paramount: During a Monday Night Football game, Ron
Jaworski put numbers in perspective: "Play calling is about probability not
certainty."
Market Bubbles: The mythological 100-year flood happens all the time. Since
1929 there have been 18 market crashes--always rooted in irrational exuberance.
Fundamentals Are Religion: To paraphrase trader Paul Tudor Jones: The illusion
has been created that there is an explanation for every market move with the
primary task to find that explanation. Trend Following does not need news,
fundamentals or chart patterns. It is not day trading.
The Market Is Never Wrong: People pine nonstop for the market to go their
direction, then hang on and pray it'll come back if it doesn't go in their favor. The
market is never wrong.
You Have to Bet to Win: Take a big risk if you want a big reward. If you want an
average reward, take an average risk. No balls, no babies. However, as Larry
Hite said, "Don't bet your deli to win a pickle."
Process Beats Outcome: Do you want to be right or rich? You really have no
control over the results; you have control over your action. You can only control
how much you lose.
Think Like Kenny Rogers: If you must play decide upon three things at the start:
the rules of the game, the stakes and quitting time. You've got to know when to
hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. Know when to run.
Behavioral Biases: The lessons of the greatest trading psychology pros are part
of Trend Following. See the podcast.
Learn to Love Losses: P.T. Barnum famously said, "This way to the egress!" If
famed trader Amos Hostetter lost 25 percent he'd exit: "Never mind the cheese. Let
me out of the trap."
Technology Is No Mistress: Pablo Picasso famously said, "Computers are
useless. They can only give you answers." Start by answering your daily market
questions in advance. Automating answers is the easy part.
Zero Sum Battles Are Life: If you are going to win, someone else will lose. Does
survival of the fittest make you uneasy? Stay out of the zero sum game (PDF).
Hero Worship Kills Accounts: When TV pundits say it's time to buy Google or
dump Apple, millions follow random advice blindly. Don't drink the Kool-Aid.
Buy and Hold (Hope) Is Dead: Buy and hold works for investors who live forever.
It also works for those who believe in magical thinking and pixie dust. Mutual funds
and cosmetics: They both sell hope.
No Balance Sheets: It does not matter if you're trading stocks or soybeans:
"Trading is trading, and the name of the game is to make money, not get an A in
'How to Read a Balance Sheet?'"
No Tops and Bottoms: Trend following aims to capture the middle, or the meat, of
a market trend, up or down, for profit. You will never get in at the absolute bottom
or get out at the absolute top.
Have Markets Changed? Not only have markets changed, they will continue to
change: "If you have a valid market philosophy, learning to accept that change and
flow with it is your greatest asset. No matter how ridiculous market moves appear
at the beginning, and no matter how extended or irrational they seem at the end,
following trends is the rational choice in a chaotic, changing world." That's how the
owner of the Red Sox made his trend following fortune.
True Reality: "If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what
the market is doing. Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the
market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the market,
the more money you will lose."
Price Makes Markets the Same: "You do not need to know anything about bonds.
You do not need to understand different currencies. They are just numbers. Corn is
a little different than bonds, but not different enough to trade them differently. Some
people have a different system for each market. That is absurd. You are trading
mob psychology. You are not trading corn, soybeans, or the S&P. You are merely
trading numbers."
No Discretion: "You cannot test or simulate how you were feeling when you got
out of bed 15 years ago when you're looking at historical simulations. If you're
going to trade using a system, you must slavishly use the system and avoid
discretionary overrides. You do whatever the hell the system says no matter how
smart or dumb you might think it is at that moment."
Proper Betting: If you have $100,000 and you want to trade Gold, well, how much
of your $100,000 will you trade of Gold on your first trade? Will you trade all
$100,000? What if you're wrong? What if you're wrong in a big way, and you lose
your entire $100,000 on one bet? Not smart.
Prenuptial Agreement: The paramount factor when the market goes against you
is being able to say: "I'm out!" You need a prenuptial agreement with the market.
That means the time to think most clearly about when you will exit is before you
ever get in.
Home Run Trades: A trend following baseball coach would approach it like the
former manager of the Baltimore Orioles: "Earl Weaver designed his offenses to
maximize the chance of a three-run homer. Weaver did not bunt or want guys who
slapped singles. He wanted guys who hit big home runs."
The Babe Ruth Parallel: Babe Ruth struck out a lot, but he was one of baseball's
greatest sluggers. His home runs made up for the strikeouts.
Armed with no college degree he made his fortune with trend following and bought the Red Sox.
The Challenge
In the last 20 years there have been multiple booms and busts. There has been
government rigging from bailouts to quantitative easing (QE) to zero interest rate policy
(ZIRP) to negative interest rate policy (NIRP). These policies insure that all markets go
up and down all the time, but no one can predict market direction. However, prediction
is not needed for trend following success. For example, why a particular market is
moving is not relevant. The Eastern philosopher Alan Watts knew trend following (even
if unintentional):
The question, "What shall we do about it?" is only asked by those who do not understand the
problem. If a problem can be solved at all, to understand it and to know what to do about it is the
same thing. On the other hand, doing something about a problem that you do not understand is like
trying to clear away darkness by thrusting it aside with your hands. When light is brought, the
darkness vanishes at once.
Overcoming fear (and moving you toward rich) is part of Trend Following Flagship:
The global Deep State governmental authorities don't want you thinking. They want you
in the Matrix:
Those who dominate the educational [system] control who is accepted and who is rejected, not by
measure of intelligence or skill, but by their willingness to conform to the establishment ideal. They
construct a kind of automaton class, which has been taught not to learn independently, but to parrot
propaganda without question. Those of us who do not make the grade are relegated to the role of
obliged worshippers; accepting the claims of the professional class as gospel regardless of how
incorrect they happen to be. The whole thing is disgustingly inbred.