Theoretical considerations of day-to-day temperature variability applied to Toronto

and Calgary, Canada data

A probable summary

In general, the variability is measured using standard deviation. For example, each month of the
year at given location is characterized by a mean value of the climate variable, such as
temperature, and the standard deviation is a common measure of data variability. In this research
paper a new measure of variability is introduced. The research question that has been asked is,
Does the standard deviation represent accurately the day to day variability that is experienced?
To answer this question three different possible climates were considered, linear, random and
oscillatory based on the Day-to-Day (DTD) temperature variability. Statistically it is calculated
using the departure of a given day, not from the monthly mean, but from the value of the
previous day. This is used to identify the three categories of climate using
R = DTD/SD
Using theoretical days the three climates can be characterized as
1. Linear climate (strong memory), R < 1
2. Random climate (little to no memory), R ~ 1
3. Oscillatory climate (reactionary swings), R > 1

To test this category real data from Toronto and Calgary were used. The climates of both cities
were characterized not as random but have some climate memory. This was analyzed using
temperature counts of 5oC swings and 10oC swings for both maximum and minimum
temperatures. The swings were calculated by the number of times a change from one day to the
next exceeded 5 oC for each month for the period 1971 2000. This was followed by a similar
analysis using a threshold of 10 oC. The results show that Calgary has a drier climate which
means the available energy heats up the surface rather than evaporate. It also shows more
extreme swings since the climate of Calgary is affected by Chinooks which can produce rapid
changes in temperature on the leeside of the Rockies. On the contrary, the climate of Toronto
experiences less swings in temperature than Calgary since it is affected by Lake Ontario which
mitigates the extremes.