Contents

Nhn li v nh gi TTCK Qu 3 nm 2017 ...................................................................................................................3

Top cc c phiu ca 9T/2017 .......................................................................................................................................5
So snh tng trng ngnh v VN-Index 9T2017 ..........................................................................................................6
Chin lc u t ngnh qu 4/2017 ............................................................................................................................8
Trin vng Ngnh Qu 4 v ca nm 2017 ....................................................................................................................10
nh gi cc chnh sch v thng tin s co anh hng ln n TTCK 2017 ................................................................11
So snh ngang vi TTCK khu vc .................................................................................................................................12
Danh mc c phiu lu .............................................................................................................................................13
Trin vng cc Ngnh Q4 2017 ....................................................................................................................................15
Ngnh Ngn hng [Kha quan] .................................................................................................................................15
Ngnh Bt ng san [Kha quan] ..............................................................................................................................21
Ngnh Xy dng [Kha quan] ....................................................................................................................................24
Ngnh Cng ngh [Kha quan] ..................................................................................................................................27
Ngnh in [Kha quan] ...........................................................................................................................................29
Ngnh Phn bn [Kha quan] ...................................................................................................................................31
Ngnh Cao su [Kha quan] ........................................................................................................................................35
Ngnh Sm lp [Trung lp] ......................................................................................................................................38
Ngnh Dc phm [Trung lp] ................................................................................................................................40
Ngnh Nha [Trung lp] ..........................................................................................................................................43
Ngnh Du kh [Trung lp].......................................................................................................................................45
Ngnh Thp [Trung lp] ...........................................................................................................................................48
Ngnh Xi mng [Trung lp] ......................................................................................................................................51
Ngnh Gch men [Trung lp] ..................................................................................................................................53
Ngnh Dt may [Trung lp] .....................................................................................................................................55
Ngnh Bao him phi nhn th [Trung Lp] .............................................................................................................58
Ngnh ung [Trung lp] .....................................................................................................................................61
Ngnh Cang bin [Trung Lp] ..................................................................................................................................64
Ngnh Vn tai bin [Trung Lp] ...............................................................................................................................66
Ngnh Thy San [Km kha quan] ............................................................................................................................68
Ngnh Ma ng [Trung lp] .................................................................................................................................70
Nhn li v nh gi TTCK Qu 3 nm 2017
Din bin th trng trong qu III nhn chung kh ph hp vi nhn nh xu hng tch cc qu II ca
chng ti ti Bo co trin vng V m th trng 2017 v cc ngnh tng trng tt nh Xy dng v
VLXD, BS, Ti nguyn c ban, bn l v thc phm ung u c cp trong Bo co trin vng
ngnh 2017:
(1) Xt v din bin th trng. Ch s th trng ca hai sn trong xu hng tng v im s trong
thng 9, tip tc chinh phc cc mc khng c ngn hn mi l 815 im ca VN-Index v 110
im ca HNX-Index. Tnh n thi im 30/09/2017, VN-Index t 804.42 im chnh thc
tng 21.66 im so vi thi im cui thng trc, v tng 27.95 im so vi thi im cui qu
trc, tng ng vi cc thi k tng 2.77% v 3.4%; v HNX-Index t 107.66 im tng 3.78
im ch s so vi thng trc v tng 8.52 im so vi thi im cui qu trc, tng ng vi
cc thi k tng 8.6% v 34.37%. So vi thi im u nm 2017, ch s VN-Index tng 139.55
im (20.99% ytd) v ch s HNX-Index tng 27.54 im (34.37% ytd).
Mc d v im s vn tip tc tng trng trong thng, duy tr tng t u nm tuy nhin
thanh khoan cha co s cai thin so vi thng trc. tng ch s phn ln ph thuc vo
nhm c phiu Blue-chip trong VN-30. Trong o, c phiu GAS, VIC, MSN ong gop khoang 16.2
im tng cho ch s, tnh ring GAS ong gop 6.3 im cho ch s, chiu ngc li c phiu
PLX v BID tc ng 1.9 v 1.5 im tng ng trong km hm tng ch s chung trong ton
thng. Tnh t u nm n ht Qu 3, nhng c phiu ong gop ln nht vo tng ca ch s
VN-Index gm co VNM (+18.97 im), SAB (+16.63 im), PLX (+10.53 im), GAS (+10.28 im)
v VIC (+9.66 im). chiu ngc li, nhm cc c phiu lm giam im th trng nhiu nht
gm c: PVD (-1.04 im), BHN (-1.04 im), VPB (-0.78 im), BMP (-0.62 im) v HT1 (-0.55
im). Top 10 c phiu tng im mnh nht t u nm ong gop 105.88 im (+16.42% ytd)
trong khi top 10 c phiu giam mnh ch khin VN-Index giam 5.8 im (-0.87% ytd).
120

115

110

105

100

95

90

BCs Index LargeCap Index MidCap Index SmallCap Index Penny Index

Ngun: BSC Research

 Ghi ch - phn loi theo vn ha: BCs Trn 5000 t; LargeCap 3000 - 5000 t; MidCap 1000 -
3000 t; SmallCap 500 - 1000 t; Pennies Di 500 t
(2) V xu hng Nhm c phiu qu 3 2017, Nhm cc c phiu phn theo quy m vn ha th
trng c s phn ha v hiu sut trong qu III, trong o nhm Penny c hiu sut tng tt
nht th trng vi mc tng 11.2% so vi cui qu II. Tip n l nhm c phiu BCs v
LargeCap cng trong xu hng tng nhng km tch cc hn, tng ng 3.25% v 0.27%. Nhm
c phiu Midcap v Smallcap c t sut m trong qu III vi 0.97% v 3.68%.
Vn ho trn ca 2 sn t 2,255.68 nghn t VND tng ng vi 99.37 t USD, tng 3.67%
(MoM). T u thng 09/2017, trn sn HOSE co 156.93 triu c phn nim yt b sung, hn
4.5 triu chng ch ETF hu nim yt, 1 triu chng ch qu ETF nim yt b sung. 380 c phiu
nim yt trn HSX vi gi tr nim yt ln ti 578.59 nghn t ng, trong o c phiu chim t
trng 97.98% vi gi tr nim yt t 566.92 nghn t ng.
Top cc c phiu ca 9T/2017
TOP 5 CP TC NG TNG LN VN - INDEX TOP 5 CP TC NG TNG LN HNX - INDEX
Index Index
CK 30/09/2017 %Chg CK 30/09/2017 %Chg
point point
VNM 149.200 25,35 18,96 ACB 25,900 47.16% 7.24
SAB 260.000 31,51 16,63 SHB 7,600 65.22% 2.91
PLX 63.100 41,94 10,53 VCS 183,400 44.39% 1.15
GAS 69.100 24,64 10,28 SHS 14,300 258.63% 1.04
VIC 51.200 21,9 9,66 VND 21,400 58.52% 0.98

TOP 5 CP TC NG GIM LN VN INDEX TOP 5 CP TC NG GIM LN HNX - INDEX

Index Index
CK 30/09/2017 %Chg CK 30/09/2017 %Chg
point point
PVD 14.150 -31,64 -1,038 DBC 28.400 -15,57 -0,31
BHN 124.700 -4,16 -1,037 SHN 9.800 -15,52 -0,22
VPB 37.500 -3,85 -0,78 VC3 18.800 -28,19 -0,2
BMP 77.500 -25,35 -0,62 SIC 12.200 -63,03 -0,19
HT1 14.700 -27,86 -0,54 MSC 17.500 -41,48 -0,19

TOP 5 CP TNG MNH NHT TRN VN-INDEX TOP 5 CP TNG MNH NHT TRN HNX
(Gi > 10,000 ng. KLTB >70,000 c phiu/phin) (Gi > 10,000 ng. KLTB >20,000 c phiu/phin)
CK 3/1/2017 30/9/2017 %Chg CK 3/1/2017 30/9/2017 %Chg
HAR 2.517 12.150 383% PIV 7.333 42.500 480%
QCG 3410 16.500 384% ALV 2.467 11.500 366%
ANV 2567 9.080 254% MIM 2.900 13.000 348%
LDG 4708 16.100 242% SHS 4.376 17.800 307%
LCG 3786 11.350 200% KST 5.100 15.000 194%

TOP 5 CP GIM MNH NHT TRN VN-INDEX TOP 5 CP GIM MNH NHT TRN HNX
(Gi > 10,000 ng. KLTB >70,000 c phiu/phin) (Gi > 10,000 ng. KLTB >20,000 c phiu/phin)
CK 3/1/2017 30/9/2017 %Chg CK 3/1/2017 30/09/2017 %Chg
HID 30.600 4.800 -84% C92 37.900 7.100 -81%
CDO 8.410 3.600 -57% KDM 14.000 3.800 -73%
KPF 10.800 4.840 -55% HTP 18.000 5.000 -72%
HTT 15.100 7.010 -54% SIC 29.700 12.200 -59%
TNI 13.050 7.050 -46% CET 12.600 6.400 -49%

TOP 5 CP C KLGD NHIU NHT VN-INDEX TOP 5 CP C KLGD NHIU NHT HNX
KLGD BQ / phin (c
CK CK KLGD BQ / phin (c phiu)
phiu)
FLC 15.967.400 SHB 8.525.805
HAI 5.133.768 KLF 8.959.173
MBB 3.153.606 ACB 1.609.326
FIT 5.705.719 VCG 1.544.741
HQC 8.059.132 SHS 1.692.652
So snh tng trng ngnh v VN-Index 9T2017

Ngnh Bo him v VnIndex Ngnh Dc v Vnindex Ngnh Bt ng sn v Vnindex Ngnh Ma ng v VnIndex

5 40 50 60
- 30 40
40
(5) 30
20
(10) 20 20
10
(15) 10
-
(20) - -
(25) (10) (10) (20)
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9

Ngnh dt may v Vnindex Ngnh thp v Vnindex Ngnh CNTT v VnIndex Ngnh Cao su v Vnindex
30 20 15
15

20 10 10
10

10 5 5
-
- - -

(10) (5) (10) (5)

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9

Ngnh Bo him v VnIndex - Ngnh cng bin v

Ngnh Xy dng v Vnindex Ngnh Oto v Vnindex
15 5 VnIndex
5 30
10 -
- 20
(5)
5
(10) (5) 10
-
(15)
(5) (10) -
(20)
(10) (25) (15) (10)
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9

Ngnh Phn Bn v Vnindex

20 Ngnh xi mng v VnIndex Ngnh in v Vnindex Ngnh du kh v Vnindex
- -
5
10 (10)
- (5)
(20)
-
(5)
(30)
(10)
(10) (10)
(40)
(20) (50) (15) (15)
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9

Ngnh Nha v Vnindex Ngnh Thy sn v Vnindex Ngnh lp v VnIndex Ngnh Vn ti bin v VnIndex
5 -
- 10
- 5
(5) -
(5) (20)
(5)
(10) (10)
(10) (40)
(15) (15)
(20)
(20)
(15) (60) (25)
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9
T1 T2T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9

Ngun: BSC Research

Nhn li Q3/2017, BSC a ra nhn nh tng i chnh xc vi ngnh Ngn hng, Bt ng san vi
nhng din bin kha quan, tn dng t tc tng trng nhanh nht k t nm 2012 tr li y,
KQKD Q2 v d kin 6 thng tng trng tch cc, cc c phiu khuyn ngh ln lt t mc gi k vng
ca chng ti (MBB, ACB, VCB), nhm ngnh bt ng san vi s lng ln cc d n c bn giao
trong cui nm 2017 (DXG, VIC, SCR, NLG) . Tuy nhin, chng ti cha chnh xc vi ngnh Cang bin
do c s cnh tranh gay gt v gi cho thu cho nn anh hng mnh n kt qua kinh doanh.
Trong Q3/2017, ch c 7 trn tng s 16 nhm ngnh c theo di c tng trng gi c phiu tt
hn so vi VN-index, bao gm Ngn hng, Bt ng san, Ma ng, Dt may, Thp, Dc, Xy Dng v
Cao su. Cc nhom ngnh trn co nhng thng tin h tr tch cc nh: thng tin ni room cho nhm
ngnh Ngn hng v Dc phm; k vng im ri li nhun ca ngnh bt ng san, xy dng; s phc
hi ca gi cao su; kt qua kinh doanh lc quan ca nhm ngnh Thp v s hi phc tng trng dt
may xut khu.

Nhm ngnh bin ng tng ng Vnindex trong Q32017 bao gm: Nhm ngnh t, in, CNTT.

Cn li, hu ht cc nhm ngnh c s suy giam mnh: Cng bin, phn bn, xi mng, du kh, nha,
thy sn, xm lp v vn ti bin. Mt s nhm ngnh c BSC k vng l c hi u t trong
nm 2017 nh du kh v phn bn. Cc ngnh ny co nhiu bin ng trong 9 thng, nhng cha
c nh s k vng ca chng ti.
Chin lc u t ngnh qu 4/2017
Bi cnh kinh t th gii nhn chung n nh, chng khon tip tc l knh u t hiu qu. Ch s
Global composite PMI u n trn mc 50 v t l cc quc gia co PMI trn 50 theo xu hng cai
thin tng, duy tr trn 60% phan nh kinh t th gii ang cai thin tt. Cc nn kinh t thuc Eurozone
ln u tin cng tng trng trong thi k hu khng hoang, kinh t Trung Quc tip tc duy tr tng
n tng trc thm i hi ang cng san ln th 19 c khai mc ngy 18/10/2017 (tng trng
GDP ca TQ Q2 t 6.9% v Q3 c 6.8%). Cng vi o, kinh t M t mc tng trng GDP Q2 3%,
mc rt cao, t l tht nghip tip tc giam xung cn 4.2% trong thng 9, y l t l thp nht t
thng 2/2001, t l tng trng lng hng nm ca M ang mc 2.4%, thp hn nhiu so vi mc
4% thng thy khi bt u bc vo cc cuc khng hoang trong lch s. Qua o cho thy tnh hnh
ton cu hin nay tng i lc quan v chng khon vn tip tc l knh u t thch hp.
Kinh t v m trong nc tip tc n nh, tng trng GDP c nm mc tiu 6.7%. Trong Q3/2017,
tng trng GDP t mc n tng 7.46%, lm pht 9T l 1.83%, t mc tiu tng trng GDP ca
nm 6.7% nh Chnh ph ra th tng trng GDP Q4 c phai t mc 7.5% 7.7%. BSC cho rng
mt s yu t s gp phn thc y tng trng kinh t trong Q4 l vic giam mt bng li sut cho vay
v tng trng tn dng t 21 22% thay v mc 18% nh k hoch u nm. Tnh n cui thng
9/2017, tn dng tng trng khoang 12%, vi s d n 5.5 triu t ng cui nm 2016 th nn kinh t
d kin s c bm thm khoang 550 ngn t ng t c mc tng trng tn dng 22%. BSC
cho rng kinh t v m Vit Nam s tip tc n nh trong Q4/2017.
Cc ch u t ng lu trong Q4.
Ch u t lin quan n Nhm c phiu OTC ln nim yt (Viettel Post, Viettel Global, Viettel
Cng trnh, ), v Nhm doanh nghip nh nc C phn ha (lc ha du Bnh Sn, PV Oil, PV
Power, VRG, Idico, TCT Sng , ) s tip tc l cu chuyn thu ht s ch ca th trng trong cui
nm 2017. Bn cnh o, nm 2018 theo Cng vn 991/TTg-MDN (10/07/2017) s c mt lot cc tn
tui ln tin hnh CPH l Mobifone, VTC, Vicem, HUD, Genco 1, Genco 2, Cty Vng bc qu Si Gn
SJC, TCT Cp nc Si Gn s thu ht s quan tm ln ca NT trong v ngoi nc.
Ch u t lin quan n Nhm c phiu thoi vn hoc ht room. Trong Q4/2017, c hi c th
n t vic SCIC thoi vn BMP v NTP, trong o, chng ti k vng li nhun sau thu ca NTP s c
cai thin mnh nh thay i chnh sch phn phi nh cp trong cc bo co trc y. Bn cnh
o, vic nh nc tin hnh thoi vn ti SAB v BHN s l im nhn cui nm ca TTCK, bin ng gi
ca c phiu SAB s c anh hng ln n ch s VNIndex, VN 30 v th trng chng khon phi sinh.
Bn cnh o, theo Quyt nh s 1232/Q-TTg (17/08/2017), trong nm 2017 Nh nc s tin hnh
thoi vn ti TCT My ng lc v My nng nghip Vit Nam (VEAM), TCT Dc Vit Nam, TCT VLXD s
1 FICO, TCT Xy dng s 1, TCT Licogi. Trong thng 10/2017, d kin SCIC s tip tc bn 3.3% vn s
hu ti VNM (giam t l SH ca SCIC ti VNM cn 36%), d kin thu v t 6.5 7 nghn t ng. Nhn
chung cc thng v thoi vn ln khng ch l c hi vi NT trong v ngoi nc v cng l ngun thu
ngoi t cho nh nc, gp phn bnh n chnh sch t gi.
Chng ti cng lu c phiu FPT trong ch u t lin quan thoi vn. Hin ti doanh nghip ang
tin hnh giam t l s hu ti mang Phn Phi v Bn l. Trong Q4, FPT s tin hnh bc 2 ca thng
v bn vn ti khi Bn l (khoang 10%) cho nh u t c nhn thng qua cc Cng ty chng khon. Do
o, nh gi ca doanh nghip cng s c iu chnh ph hp vi hot ng ct li l CNTT v Vin
thng
Ch Nhm c phiu c bn, u ngnh, c tc cao, khi KQKD Q3 dn c cng b, cc c phiu
chng minh c sc tng trng tt, s tip tc t mc gi cao. Chng ti lu nhom c phiu Ngn
hng, kt qua kinh doanh ca cc ngn hng c k vng tch cc nh tng trng kinh t, tn dng v
y mnh cc hot ng ngoi li. Ngh quyt x l n xu c thng qua, k vng y nhanh qu trnh
x l n xu, ti san am bao, a ngun vn vo lu thng v to ra li nhun cho cc ngn hng. Nhn
chung, cc c phiu c ban, u ngnh ng lu l DXG, KBC, CTD, FPT, NT2, BFC, NTP, RAL, GAS, HPG,
NKG, CVT, VGC, TNG, SAB, VNM.
Ch u t Cc Hip nh Thng mi t do v XNK, Vn u t FDI tng k lc, trong 9T2017,
Vit Nam thu ht c 25.48 t USD vn u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI), tng 34.3%yoy. Vn giai
ngn FDI cng tng mnh, t khoang 12.5 t USD, tng 13.4%yoy. Do o, trin vng s n vi nhng
ngnh Xut nhp khu, h tng Khu Cng nghip, Logistics. Bn cnh o d hip nh TPP khng c
thng qua, ngnh Dt may Vit Nam ang ly li phong vi mc tng trng xut khu t trn 8.6%
trong 9T2017, nhm c phiu lin quan n cc Hip nh thng mi t do l H tng KCN, Logistics
cng ng lu vo thi im Q4.
Trin vng Ngnh Qu 4 v c nm 2017
Chng ti duy tr nh gi KH QUAN vi cc ngnh: Ngn hng, Bt ng sn, Xy dng,
Cng ngh, in, Cao su, Phn bn.
Chng ti nh gi TRUNG LP vi cc ngnh: Du kh, Thp, ung, Xi mng, Gch men,
Nha, Sm lp, Dc, Dt may, Vn ti bin. Chng ti h trin vng ca ngnh Cng bin
v Bo him t Kha quan xung Trung lp do s d tha ngun cung, cnh tranh cao v gi
dch v Cang v Li sut trong cc thng cui nm co th giam nhm thc y tng trng
kinh t. Trin vng chung ca nhom ny an xen tt v xu, nn c hi nu c s khng n
vi ton b c phiu.
V pha cc ngnh KM KH QUAN, chng ti cho rng ngnh Thy sn s vn gp nhiu kh
khn trong Q4 nm 2017. Bn cnh o chng ti cng h trin vng ngnh Ma ng xung
Km kha quan do Theo l trnh trin khai Hip nh Thng mi hng ha ASEAN (ATIGA) k
t nm 2018, mt hng ma ng s phai xa b hon ton hn ngch thu quan v mc
thu sut NK ch 5%, dn ti th trng trong nc s b cnh tranh cao bi ng nhp khu
gi r.

STT Phn Ngnh Nhn nh Q4 Khuyn ngh Trung Theo di

2017 v Di hn
1 Ngn hng Kha quan MBB, CTG, VCB ACB, VIB
2 Bt ng san Kha quan DXG, KBC VIC, KDH, SCR, DIG
3 Xy dng Kha quan CTD, FCN HBC, VCG, HUT, CTI, PC1, LCG, VNE
4 Cng ngh Kha quan FPT, CMG ITD,ELC
5 in Kha quan NT2, VSH PPC, SJD, CHP
6 Phn bn Kha quan BFC, SFG DPM, LAS
7 Cao su Kha quan TRC, PHR, DPR, DRI
8 Sm lp Trung lp DRC, CSM
9 Dc Trung lp DHG, IMP, DP3, DBD
10 Nha Trung lp NTP, BMP AAA
11 Du kh Trung lp PVS, GAS
12 Thp Trung lp HSG, HPG, NKG SMC, VIS
13 Xi mng Trung lp HT1, BCC, BTS
14 Gch men Trung lp CVT, VGC TTC, VHL, VIT, TLT
15 Dt may Trung lp VGG, VGT, TCM, TNG
16 Bao him Kha quan PVI, BMI VNR
17 ung Trung lp VNM SAB, GTN, QNS
18 Cang bin Kha quan VSC, PHP, HAH CDN, GMD
19 Vn tai bin Trung lp PVT, GSP VTO, VIP
20 Thy san Km kha quan VHC
21 Ma ng Km kha quan SBT, SLS, LSS
Ngun: BSC Research
nh gi cc chnh sch v thng tin s c nh hng ln n TTCK
2017
Trong nm 2017, BSC lu nhng thng tin v chnh sch sau s c anh hng ln ti KQKD cng nh
c hi u t vo cc Ngnh:

Mc
Ngy hiu Tnh trng
STT Chnh sch v Thng tin v m cng b nh hng nh
lc 30/09/2017
hng
Chnh sch V m v kinh t Quc t
1 FED nng li sut N/A Mnh anh hng
2 Brexit ng GBP mt gi Tiu cc Mnh anh hng
3 ECB dn chm dt chnh sch tin t ni lng Tch cc Mnh ang anh
4 Chnh sch Abenomics t Nht (JPY mt gi) Tch cc Mnh hng
anh hng
5 Kinh t Trung Quc phc hi Tch cc Rt mnh ang anh
6 Mt bng gi nguyn liu (gi du, qung st,..) an xen Rt mnh hnganh
ang
7 S thay i trong cc chnh sch ca Trump N/A Rt mnh hnganh
ang
8 H Lan tng tuyn c 15/03/2017 N/A Trung bnh hng
anh hng
9 Hn m phn Bexit 31/03/2017 N/A Mnh anh hng
10 Bu c tng thng Php vng cui 07/05/2017 N/A Rt mnh anh hng
11 Bu c lin bang c Ma thu N/A Rt mnh anh hng
12 i hi ang Trung Quc 2017 thu
Ma N/A Rt mnh Cha anh
Chnh sch V m v Kinh t trong nc 2017 hng
1 Thng t 06/2016/TT-NHNN 1/7/2016 Tiu cc Mnh ang anh
2 Trin khai Hip c vn Basel II 2017 Tiu cc Mnh hnganh
ang
3 Thu TNDN giam t 22% xung cn 20% 1/1/2016 Tch cc Trung bnh hnganh
ang
4 iu chnh tng thu sut thu Ti nguyn 1/1/2016 Tiu cc Trung bnh hnganh
ang
5 TTCK Phi sinh (Hp ng tng lai) 2017 Tch cc Trung bnh hng
ang anh
6 Kha nng giam li sut VND 2017 Tch cc Mnh hng
ang anh
7 Tng u t cng vo c s h tng Tch cc Mnh hnganh
ang
8 Tng c phn hoa doanh nghip nh nc Trung lp Trung bnh hnganh
ang
9 Thoi vn doanh nghip Nh nc (SCIC, B ngnh) Tch cc Rt Mnh hnganh
ang
10 Tng GDP, FDI, PMI, ODA, kiu hi, tn dng, XNK Tch cc Trung bnh hnganh
ang
11 Ngh nh 145/2016/N-CP 15/12/2016 Tch cc Mnh hnganh
ang
12 Thng t s 180/2015/TT-BTC 01/01/2016 Tch cc Rt mnh hng
ang anh
13 Thng t s 115/2016/TT-BTC 01/11/2016 Tch cc Rt mnh hnganh
ang
14 Ngh quyt n xu 15/08/2017 Tch cc Rt mnh hnganh
ang
Cc Hip nh thng mi t do hng
1 ACFTA Thng t 166/2014/TT-BTC 1/1/2015 TB Mnh anh hng
2 FTA Vit Nam - Hn Quc 20/12/2015 Tch cc Mnh ang anh
3 FTA Vit Nam - Lin minh kinh t u 2016 Tch cc Trung bnh hnganh
ang
4 Hip nh TPP (*) 2018 TB Mnh hnganh
Cha
5 FTA Vit Nam - EU 2018 Tch cc Mnh hnganh
Cha
6 RCEP ASEAN + 6 ang P Tch cc Mnh hnganh
Cha
7 Thnh lp Cng ng kinh t ASEAN (AEC) 31/12/2015 Tch cc Trung bnh hnganh
ang
hng
Ngun: BSC Research, (*) Hip nh TPP s c tip tc m phn m khng c M
So snh ngang vi TTCK khu vc
Xt trong phm vi cc th trng mi ni trong khu vc ASEAN, ti ngy 30/9/2017, Vit Nam c mc
P/B v P/E mc trung bnh so vi cc quc gia cn li, trong o PE hin cao hn Singapore v Lo.
KQKD cai thin tt, nn kinh t v m n nh gip mc nh gi ca VN Index tip tc tin gn ti mc
nh gi cao hn trong khu vc.

Trong tng lnh vc, mc chit khu xt trn tng ngnh co s phn ha.

So snh P/E & P/B Vit Nam v khu vc

2.60 PCOMP

2.40 JCI
VN Index
(2,3 ; 16,1)
2.20

SET
2.00

1.80
KLCI
1.60

1.40
13.00 15.00 17.00 19.00 21.00 23.00 25.00

Ngun: Bloomberg, BSC Research

So snh vi cc quc gia thuc khu vc chu mi ni l Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia v Philippines cc
ngnh ca Vit Nam nhn chung ang c nh gi mc tng i hp dn. Trong s o co nhng
ngnh co mc chit khu tt hn kh nhiu so vi khu vc nh: Tiu dng, VL c ban, Cng ngh, Vin
thng. Bt ng san, chng khon, ngn hng v bao him ang c nh gi cao hn tng i so vi
trung bnh khu vc.

Vietnam Median Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Thailand

Ti chnh 23.11 21.85 37.21 14.48 25.50 18.20
Hng tiu dng 27.70 37.74 50.03 23.34 54.21 25.44
Cng nghip 33.10 26.89 49.69 22.43 21.02 31.34
Du kh 16.35 14.29 16.36 24.08 12.13 12.22
Dch v tiu dng 17.12 36.64 38.82 14.57 34.80 38.48
Vt liu c ban 12.46 16.38 17.60 17.85 15.15 14.03
Tin ch 13.05 16.15 15.60 16.46 15.84 20.55
Cng ngh 18.54 45.69 75.22 16.15
Sc khe 20.42 43.55 43.55 51.62 35.26
Vin thng 12.54 30.66 29.09 39.37 15.97 32.22
Ngun: Bloomberg, BSC Research
 Danh mc c phiu lu
Nh trong cc bo co Trin vng Ngnh trc y BSC tip tc theo di v a ra gi khuyn ngh vi
cc m c th nh sau:

LNST Gi ng
DT 2017 ROE Gi mc
M CK 2017 (t EPS 2017 PE 2017 PB 2017 ca
(t ng) 2017 tiu
ng) 29/09/17
MBB 2,272 9.57 1.93 13.05% 21,750 26,000
ACB 1,872 16.35 2.58 11.48% 30,600 30,200
Ngn
CTG 1,648 11.23 1.85 12.06% 18,500 21,500
hng
VCB 2,009 18.72 2.75 15.32% 37,600 41,100
VIB N/A N/A 2.54 7.15% 21,600 N/A
VIC 80,000 3,000 1,137 45.00 4.20 7% 51,200 N/A
DXG 3,300 800 2,641 7.90 1.32 19% 21,000 23,800
KDH 3,200 500 2,136 11.20 1.90 12% 24,000 25,100
BS
SCR 2,500 205 903 12.40 0.90 6% 11,200 11,600
KBC 4,000 750 1,596 8.80 1.00 10% 14,600 20,000
DIG 1,406 128 504 31.50 1.30 4% 15,900 16,500
CTD 27,158 1,879 21,434 9.70 2.70 27% 208,000 252,300
HBC 16,000 828 6,426 9.60 3.90 42% 61,400 n/a
VCG 10,222 585 1,324 15.60 1.50 8% 20,700 n/a
FCN 2,800 210 4,242 5.10 1.20 16% 21,600 28,100
Xy
HUT 3,309 462 2,447 4.90 0.50 17% 12,100 14,700
dng
CTI 1,396 141 2,309 13.40 1.60 16% 30,900 31,800
PC1 3,585 307 3,137 11.30 1.30 15% 35,350 39,600
LCG 1,500 70 917 12.40 0.70 7% 11,350 n/a
VNE 1,113 111 1,228 6.70 1.00 11% 8,260 n/a
FPT 46,619 3,058 5,157 9.09 2.09 20% 48,750 60,228
CNTT
CMG 5,042 198 2,237 6.79 0.95 10% 16,700 20,359
NT2 7,161 884 3,104 9.43 1.62 23% 26,550 32,400
PPC 6,567 600 1,712 11.92 1.18 11% 20,250 19,300
in SJD 468 225 3,261 7.36 1.01 17% 23,250 NA
CHP 667 298 2,366 11.16 1.80 22% 27,000 23,200
VSH 643 381 1,846 9.15 1.18 12% 18,400 20,530
BFC 6,564 344 5,411 7.45 2.35 28% 40,300 48,700
SFG 2,591 99 1,916 7.31 1.14 17% 14,000 16,300
Phn
DPM 7,748 946 2,120 10.73 1.10 11% 22,750 22,800
bn
LAS 4,000 163 1,355 11.51 1.34 12% 15,600 16,200
DDV 2,041 1.2 8 987.50 1.19 0% 7,900 N/A
TRC 444 87 2,319 12.00 0.58 5% 28,400 33,000
PHR 1,464 373 3,753 11.00 1.54 16% 42,000 45,900
Cao su
DPR 680 202 3,523 12.00 0.87 7% 41,000 49,000
DRI 546 101 1,311 10.00 1.08 13% 12,600 15,700
DRC 3,563 213 1,523 15.10 1.82 13% 23,000 N/A
Sm lp
CSM 3,575 197 1,701 8.70 1.13 17% 14,800 N/A
DHG 4,250 780 5,369 19.84 4.95 27% 106,500 N/A
Dc
IMP 1,260 128 3,282 19.20 1.99 13% 63,000 N/A
 DP3 250 26 3,823 15.64 3.07 19% 59,800 N/A
DBD 1,500 144 2,474 20.17 3.08 18% 49,900 N/A
NTP 4,663 442 4,621 15.47 3.30 22% 71,500 83,900
Nha BMP 3,764 460 5,614 13.80 2.72 19% 77,500 119,400
AAA 2,900 200 3,468 9.88 2.00 22% 34,250 N/A
GAS 72,155 8,613 4,500 15.00 3.00 20% 69,100 74,047
Du kh
PVS 18,165 834 1,876 9.6x 0.7x 8% 16,300 20,500
HPG 46,867 7,795 5,602 6.94 2.05 29% 38,900 46,945
Thp HSG 26,410 1,671 4,774 5.99 1.84 31% 28,600 35,803
NKG 12,093 711 6,772 4.89 1.79 37% 35,250 43,882
HT1 8,649 492 1,288 11.41 0.99 9% 14,700 17,540
Xi mng BCC 4,066 130 1,065 8.15 0.46 6% 8,680 11,606
BTS 3,348 108 808 6.81 0.45 7% 5,500 8,976
CVT 1,305 177 6,300 8.10 3.36 46% 50,900 58,000
TTC 348 20 3,367 5.50 1.10 18% 18,500 N/A
Gch VHL 1,972 167 6,676 7.10 1.90 24% 47,100 N/A
men VIT 1,164 70 3,589 6.12 1.70 29% 22,000 28,700
VGC 8,738 827 1,576 14.50 1.57 15% 22,800 23,200
TLT 515 45 6,438 2.80 3.00 N/A 17,800 N/A
VGT 15,640 310 620 18.40 0.90 4% 11,400 13,619
VGG 8,113 380 8,460 6.40 1.40 24% 53,900 60,204
Dt may
TCM 3,315 182 3,324 8.10 1.40 23% 27,000 32,000
TNG 2,553 111 2,567 5.90 1.05 18% 15,200 18,538
BMI 3,836 195 2,410 13.00 1.00 8% 29,200 32,150
Bo
PVI 7,283 465 1,987 19.10 1.10 6% 32,200 38,000
him
VNR 1,788 249 1,900 12.60 1.20 10% 26,300 26,500
SAB 34,495 4,703 7,051 29.30 10.50 36% 260,000 168,600
VNM 52,945 11,220 7,733 19.80 8.94 50% 149,200 180,000
ung QNS 7,665 1,349 5,425 15.20 4.40 23% 69,700 82,500
GTN 3,950 70 280 60.70 1.50 3% 16,350 n/a
VLC 2,800 115 1,822 9.00 1.16 17% 16,000 n/a
GMD 4,354 579 2,774 16.33 2.06 11% 43,750 N/A
PHP 2,529 504 1,432 10.40 1.39 11% 14,000 22,980
Cng
VSC 1,187 320 7,020 10.67 2.11 20% 56,400 64,500
bin
HAH 520 130 3,578 6.53 0.91 16% 23,000 30,640
CDN 640 147 1,634 13.77 1.98 16% 24,800 N/A
PVT 6,426 410 1,303 11.09 1.00 14% 14,900 19,000
Vn ti GSP 1,286 69 2,300 5.60 0.99 18% 13,550 15,200
bin VTO 1,312 120 1,521 4.83 0.51 8% 7,300 N/A
VIP 655 110 1,606 4.76 0.47 8% 7,240 N/A
HVG 23,400 220 870 10.25 0.73 8% 6,340 N/A
Thy sn VHC 8,610 692 6,700 8.97 1.78 15% 51,000 N/A
FMC 2,800 83 4 7.81 1.15 20% 19,000 N/A
SBT(*) 10,156 509 1,058 24.56 1.90 7% 26,000 N/A
Ma
SLS 653 173 18,660 9.40 3.40 32% 175,000 N/A
ng
LSS 2,272 115 1,540 7.40 0.46 8% 11,400 N/A
Ngun: BSC Research
 Trin vng cc Ngnh Q4 2017
Ngnh Ngn hng [Kh quan]
Tn dng tng 11.5%, huy ng vn tng 9.1% trong 8T2017
T l s dng vn ngn hn cho vay trung v di hn nm 2018 c ni ln 45% (d thao sa
i thng t 36/2014/TT-NHNN) thay v 40% nh quy nh hin hnh.
Ngh quyt x l n xu (NQ 42) chnh thc c hiu lc t ngy 15/8/2017
Cu chuyn c ng chin lc ca cc ngn hng
Nhiu ngn hng d kin nim yt c phiu.
KQKD cc ngn hng tch cc.

Thc trng Qu 3/2017

Tn dng tng nhanh, tng 11.5% trong 8 thng u nm 2017. y l tc tng trng cao nht k Comment [WU1]: tin dung 9 thng co si, co
ca tn dng ngoi t v VN (nu vo)
t nm 2013 tr li y. Tnh n ht qu 2/2017, tc tng trng tn dng ca nhiu ngn hng S 9 thng m a ni l s ca tng cc thng k ,
tin st mc trn quy nh u nm bi NHNN (VCB, ACB, MBB, VIB, BID). Ti cuc hp Thng trc n 20/9/2017 l 11.02%. S ny khc vi s thng
k ca NHNN (v d, s ca NHNN thng 9/2016
Chnh ph, Th tng Nguyn Xun Phc t vn nng ch tiu tng trng tn dng ca nm ln l 11.64% nhng s ca tng cc thng k ch l
21-22% trong nm 2017. Mt s ngn hng c ni room tng trng tn dng gm VCB (t 16% 10.46% thi .
Nn e vn dng s ca NHNN v n thng 8 nh a
ln 18%), MBB (t 16% ln 20%), ACB (t 16% ln 20%), VIB (t 16% ln 24%)
Comment [TTHT2]: tnh li xem nu cc Bank
Trng tn dng ca ngnh Ngn hng Tng trng tn dng ca mt s ngn hng u c ni room th TTTD ln c bao nhiu lp 1
bang quy m tnh dng v tng tng ng k nh
25% (cc Bank chnh v others)
20.00%
18.00% TL: E ch xin c s ni room tn dng ca mt s
20% banks ny , cc banks khc khng c thng tin.
16.00% Em c lp bang v tnh th, th nhm cc banks ln
14.00% ny chim khoang 50% quy m tn dng ca h
15% thng, nu tng trng ln 18%-20% nh s c
12.00% ni, v nhm cc banks nh tng ln 25% th h
10.00% thng s t mc 21% . Nhng mnh k co s ca
10%
tng banks nh, nn cng kho bit nhm ny s
8.00% tng bao nhiu, mt s banks quy m nh nhng
5% 6.00% hiu qua, e ngh vn c th tng ln ti s o,
4.00%
0% 2.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.00%
-5% VCB CTG BID MBB ACB STB SHB EIB VIB
2013 2014 2015
Tng trng cho vay 6T2017
2016 2017 2017E
Trn tng trng (u nm 2017)

Ngun: BSC research, SBV, V tn dng

Huy ng vn tng 9.1% trong 8T2017. Theo thng k ca Ngn hng Nh nc, t l cp tn dng so
vi huy ng tip tc mc cao, t 88.73% n cui thng 7/2017, trong o, khi Ngn hng Nh
nc ln ti 94.85% (trn l 90%), khi Ngn hng TMCP l 81.76% (trn l 80%). Cc ngn hng cn y
mnh hn na hot ng huy ng vn, am bao thanh khoan v tc tng trng trong di hn.

D tho sa i, b sung mt s iu ca thng t s 36/2014/TT-NHNN. ng ch , trong ni dung

ca d thao, NHNN xut ni rng t l s dng vn ngn hn cho vay trung v di hn trong nm
2018 t mc 40% ln mc 45% (nm 2017 t l p dng l 50%). Sau o, t l ny s giam xung cn
40% t nm 2019. iu ny s to thm ngun lc cho vay trung, di hn cho cc ngn hng, ng thi,
nhm vay bt ng san, xy dng v ti tr d n s l nhng i tng hng li chnh t s m rng
ny. y cng phn khc khch hng v k hn c mc li sut cao hn, do vy, k vng cai thin NIM
trong ngn hn cho cc ngn hng.

Ngh quyt x l n xu (NQ 42) chnh thc c hiu lc t 15/8/2017. Ngy 20/7/2017, NHNN ban
hnh ch th s 06/VT-NHNN v thc hin ngh quyt s 42. Nh chng ti cp trong bo co nh
gi tc ng ca Ngh quyt v Lut sa i, b sung Lut cc TCTD, cc quy nh php lut ny s h tr
mnh m cho cc TCTD trong qu trnh thu hi, x l n xu v ti san am bao. Trong ngn hn, t l
n xu c th tng nh do cc ngn hng minh bch hoa c hng cc c ch x l p dng trong
Ngh quyt. Trong di hn, iu ny c k vng giai quyt n xu trong cc ngn hng thng mi.
Mc tc ng ca Ngh quyt vo tng ngn hng ph thuc vo nng lc x l n xu v quy m n
xu, ti san am bao ca chnh ngn hng o. Mt s ngn hng c quy m/ t trng n xu, ti san am
bao ln bao gm BID, CTG, STB, SHB, VPB, EIB.

VCB CTG BID MBB ACB STB SHB EIB NVB VIB

N nhom 2 4,687 3,570 27,608 2,346 196 5,286 2,207 693 1,704 501

N xu 7,922 8,520 15,380 2,216 2,006 13,903 3,334 2,598 609 1,789

TP VAMC rng - 6,541 14,773 4,479 1,069 37,134 6,628 5,344 6,888 1,878
Li, ph phai
5,261 15,006 8,358 2,910 2,660 4,752 8,989 1,027 3,208 1,059
thu
Tng cng 17,870 33,637 66,119 11,951 5,932 61,075 21,157 9,662 12,409 5,227

% d n 3.41% 4.61% 8.19% 6.92% 3.27% 27.95% 11.77% 10.77% 45.00% 7.55%

Gi tr ti san
738,115 1,395,070 954,707 516,533 356,354 395,584 384,526 182,561 85,005 191,783
am bao

% Tng d n 141% 191% 118% 299% 196% 181% 214% 203% 308% 277%

Ngun: BSC research

Cu chuyn c ng chin lc ca cc ngn hng. Tng vn ch s hu v pht hnh cho c ng

chin lc l xu hng gip cc ngn hng tng cng ngun lc v vn, nhn s, p ng yu cu ca
Basel II v am bao tng trng trong di hn. Bn cnh mt s ngn hng d kin bn vn cho nh u
t nc ngoi (OCB, Oceanbank, GPbank) nh cp trong bo co cp nht qu trc, VCB tip tc
theo ui k hoch pht hnh tng vn cho c ng ti chnh GIC; BIDV ang n lc tm kim c ng
 chin lc. chiu ngc li, sau nhiu nm gn b, Standard Chartered xc nhn k hoch thoi vn
ACB, HSBC d kin thoi ton b 19.41% vn ti Techcombank.

Nhiu ngn hng d kin nim yt. 1.3 t c phiu VPBank chnh thc giao dch ti sn HOSE vo ngy
17/8/2017. LienVietPostBank d kin nim yt sn Upcom vi gi khi im 14,800 ng/cp vo ngy
5/10/2017. Mt s ngn hng d kin nim yt trong thi gian ti bao gm: Techcombank (VL 8,879 t
ng), HDbank (VL 8,100 t ng), Maritimebank (VL 11,750 t ng), TPbank (VL 5,842 t ng),
Seabank (VL 5,466 t ng), OCB (VL 4,000 t ng), ABBbank (VL 5,319 t ng), Saigonbank (VL
3,080 t ng), , Nam Bank (VL 3,021 t ng), Vit Bank (VL 3,500 t ng).

KQKD tch cc. 6T2017, tng li nhun trc d phng ca 11 ngn hng nim yt t 44,240 t ng,
tng 29% yoy. Mt s ngn hng c tc tng trng li nhun hot ng li cao gm ACB (+ 86% yoy
do y mnh thu ngoi li v khng cn phai trch lp d phng tri phiu u t), MBB (+ 57%), VPB (+
49% ), SHB (+33%) v CTG (+33%) nh y mnh hot ng thu ngoi li v pht trin khch hng bn l.
Trong khi o, kt qua kinh doanh trc d phng ca mt s ngn hng suy giam, ng ch l STB (-
44% yoy) v EIB (-11% yoy). Mt s ngn hng ghi nhn li nhun sau thu tng trng cao, bao gm EIB
(+438% yoy), SHB (+ 57% yoy), ACB (+54% yoy), MBB (+33% yoy), STB (+37% yoy) v VCB (+23% yoy).
Chng ti lu , kt qua li nhun sau thu ca mt s ngn hng nh STB, EIB, d tng trng cao
nhng cha phan nh ng kha nng sinh li thc t ca doanh nghip do li nhun trc d phng
tng trng m, trong khi p lc trch lp d phng cao, ngn hng c th phai y mnh trch lp trong
na cui nm 2017 v cc nm sau o.

KQKD ca cc ngn hng nim yt 6 thng u nm 2017

VCB CTG BID MBB ACB STB SHB EIB NVB VIB VPB

Quy m

Vn iu l (t ) 35,978 37,234 34,187 17,127 10,273 18,852 11,197 12,355 3,010 5,644 10,765

VCSH (t ) 52,110 60,320 48,125 27,309 14,884 22,443 13,942 13,748 3,202 8,746 19,523

Tng ti san (t ) 849,298 1,035,639 1,100,433 276,245 265,842 355,973 251,785 135,914 63,200 115,384 248,714

Vn ch s hu/TTS 6.14% 5.82% 4.37% 9.89% 5.60% 6.30% 5.54% 10.12% 5.07% 7.58% 7.85%

Tng trng (ytd)

Tng trng ti san 7.79% 9.16% 9.34% 7.80% 13.76% 7.21% 7.62% 5.52% -8.42% 10.40% 8.72%

Tng trng cho vay 13.86% 10.28% 11.56% 14.56% 11.15% 9.90% 10.69% 3.29% 8.77% 15.00% 12.04%

Tng trng tin gi 10.00% 5.78% 11.78% 4.36% 11.17% 8.72% 8.85% 10.57% 4.37% 4.93% 4.71%

Tin gi khng k hn 26.52% 14.20% 16.45% 32.30% 14.15% 12.96% 9.56% 13.26% 5.43% 18.27% 9.85%

Cho vay/tin gi 80.79% 105.36% 99.49% 84.93% 78.90% 68.92% 99.12% 79.30% 63.22% 111.29% 125.05%

Cht lng ti sn

T l n xu 1.51% 1.17% 1.90% 1.28% 1.10% 6.36% 1.85% 2.89% 2.21% 2.59% 2.81%
T l n xu bao gm n 1.51% 2.04% 3.67% 3.78% 1.68% 19.96% 5.35% 8.35% 21.75% 5.16% 2.81%
bn cho VAMC
DPRR n xu/ Tng d n 2.12% 1.11% 1.57% 1.32% 1.45% 1.12% 1.08% 1.47% 1.17% 1.25% 1.61%

DPRR n xu/ Tng n xu 140.25% 94.87% 82.67% 102.93% 130.85% 17.63% 58.42% 50.67% 52.97% 48.40% 57.24%
Li thc thu/ TN li (ytd) 102.44% 97.83% 103.30% 100.21% 106.02% 105.12% 86.61% 96.24% 91.17% 97.09% 99.88%

Li, ph phai thu/ cho vay 1.00% 2.06% 1.04% 1.69% 1.46% 2.17% 5.00% 1.14% 11.63% 1.53% 2.59%

Ti san nghi ng 23,713 48,816 77,617 21,677 10,402 98,534 30,891 12,249 17,422 5,909 31,222

% TTS 2.79% 4.71% 7.05% 7.85% 3.91% 27.68% 12.27% 9.01% 27.57% 5.12% 12.55%

% VCSH 45.51% 80.93% 161.28% 79.37% 69.88% 439.03% 221.56% 89.10% 544.07% 67.56% 159.93%

Hiu qu kinh doanh (ytd)

% Thu nhp li thun 74.82% 82.57% 83.40% 80.54% 72.06% 63.42% 92.08% 79.50% 88.07% 83.75% 84.81%
LN thun trc DPRRTD (t 8,257 9,657 9,915 3,846 2,229 616 1,094 656 80 631 7,259
)
% yoy 13.37% 32.61% 26.77% 57.35% 85.90% -43.69% 33.36% -11.47% 18.60% -4.24% 48.99%

Chi ph DPRR TD (t ) (3,002) (4,844) (6,207) (1,322) (966) (38) (292) (258) (72) (251) (3,995)

% vs LN trc DP 36.36% 50.15% 62.60% 34.37% 43.37% 6.11% 26.72% 39.42% 89.81% 39.76% 55.04%

LNST (t ) 4,222 3,904 2,706 1,998 980 422 646 327 6 304 2,606

% yoy 23.42% 14.57% 1.94% 32.78% 47.83% 36.57% 56.84% 438.24% -18.00% 24.78% 107.77%

NIM (TTM) 2.65% 2.68% 2.80% 3.95% 3.25% 1.60% 2.16% 2.32% 1.90% 2.87% 8.44%

CIR (TTM) 43.19% 38.14% 38.84% 37.96% 54.08% 82.04% 48.45% 61.52% 83.86% 61.54% -35.74%

ROA (TTM) 0.96% 0.75% 0.61% 1.31% 0.67% 0.14% 0.49% 0.44% 0.02% 0.60% 2.38%

ROE (TTM) 15.32% 12.06% 13.85% 13.05% 11.48% 2.13% 8.82% 4.25% 0.37% 7.15% 30.40%

EPS (ng/cp) (TTM) 2,120 1,961 1,817 1,950 1,666 269 1,085 468 40 1,104 5,033

Gi tr ghi s (/cp) 14,442 16,126 13,218 15,208 14,488 11,905 12,452 11,127 10,638 15,494 18,135

Sources: BSC research

Quan im u t Kh quan.

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Kh quan i vi nhm c phiu Ngn hng. Kt qua kinh doanh ca cc ngn
hng c k vng tch cc nh tng trng kinh t, tn dng v y mnh cc hot ng ngoi li. Cc
ngn hng y mnh thu hi v x l n xu. c bit, Ngh quyt x l n xu c thng qua, k vng
y nhanh qu trnh x l n xu, ti san am bao, a ngun vn vo lu thng v to ra li nhun cho
cc ngn hng.

MBB MUA Gi mc tiu 26,000 ng/cp upside 20%

Chng ti duy tr khuyn ngh MUA c phiu MBB vi gi mc tiu 26,000 ng/cp da theo phng
php P/B iu chnh. Cht lng ti san tt, t l sinh li cao, v quan trng, ngn hng hin ang c
nh gi thp hn so vi cc ngn hng nim yt vi P/B iu chnh l 1.85x, do vy, MBB thch hp u
t trung v di hn.

Tc tng trng tn dng cao, t 15% trong 6T2017, ngn hng c chp thun ni room
tng trng tn dng ln 20% cho ca nm 2017. ng thi, ngn hng tch cc m rng mang
kinh doanh phi tn dng thng qua cc nghip v bn cho san phm v tn dng mng li
khch hng ln t Viettel, thu nhp ngoi li tng 12% trong 6T2017. Kha nng sinh li cao hn
 cc ngn hng nim yt, NIM cao v tng t mc 3.58% nm 2016 ln ti 3.95% trong 6T2017,
ROE t 13.05% v c k vng tng ln ti 15% trong 3 nm ti.

T l n xu tnh n cui qu 2 ca ngn hng l 1.28%, t l d phng ri ro n xu/tng n

xu cao, t ti 103%, tng ti san nghi ng theo tnh ton ca BSC l 21,677 t ng, tng
ng 79% vn ch s hu, thp hn nhiu so vi cc ngn hng nim yt. Do vy, chi ph d
phng ri ro n xu ca ngn hng c k vng giam mnh t nm 2018.

Ngoi ra, Mcredit chnh thc i vo hot ng t thng 5/2017 c k vng ong gop ng
k vo kt qua kinh doanh ca ngn hng trong cc nm ti cng vi xu hng pht trin ca
lnh vc ti chnh tiu dng ti Vit Nam. MBB d kin bn 49% Mcredit cho i tc nc ngoi,
li t thoi vn d kin c ghi nhn vo vn ch s hu, qua o lm tng gi tr s sch ca
ngn hng. Bn cnh o, ngn hng d kin thoi vn MBland, giam t l s hu t 65.29%
xung cn 11%.

BSC d bo, li nhun sau thu nm 2017 t 4,062 t ng (+42% yoy), tng ng EPS 2017
l 2,272 ng/cp ( tr qu khen thng phc li).

ACB Nm gi - Gi mc tiu 30,200 ng/cp.

C phiu ACB tng 29% k t ngy pht hnh bo co khuyn ngh Mua ACB ca chng ti (Link). ACB
l ngn hng a thch ca chng ti vi kt qua kinh doanh hot ng li tng trng tch cc, cht
lng ti san tt, cng vi k vng ngn hng hon tt x l n xu ca nhom G6, lin quan n bu
Kin trong nm 2017.

Cho vay tng trng 11.15% trong 6T2017. Ngn hng c SBV chp thun ni room tn dng
ln 20% cho ca nm 2017. Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh trc d phng tng n
86% trong na u nm 2017.

Quan tr ri ro cht ch, cht lng ti san tt. T l n xu n cui qu 2/2017 l 1.1%, tng
ti san nghi ng theo tnh ton ca BSC l 10,402 t ng, tng ng 70% vn ch s hu ca
ngn hng. T l d phng ri ro n xu/tng n xu t 131%.

D kin hon thnh d phng nhom G6 trong nm 2017, sm 1 nm. Tng gi tr cc khoan n
cn li ca nhm G6 ti ACB n 30/6/2017 l 3,527 t ng, ng ngha vi vic ngn hng
thu hi khoang 388 t ng. Tng gi tr cc khoan n cn li ca nhm G6 sau trch lp d
phng l 558 t ng, y cng l gi tr ln nht ACB phai trch lp d phng cho nhm ny
trong 6 thng cui nm 2017. Trong khi o, tng gi tr ti san am bao cho cc khoan n ca
nhm G6 ln ti 3,568 t ng, trong o co 1,237 t ng l gi trj bn th ba cho mua c
phiu ca TCTD nim yt khc ( t cc 416 t ng), 25 t ng l tin gi ti ngn hng
khc. Do vy, chng ti cho rng, ACB c th c ghi nhn cc khoan hon nhp d phng khi
x l khi ti san am bao trn.

BSC d bo, LNST nm 2017 t 1,896 t ng (+43% yoy), tng ng EPS 2017 sau khi tr
qu khen thng phc li l 1,872 ng/cp.
CTG MUA Gi mc tiu 21,500 ng/cp- upside 16%.

CTG l mt trong nhng ngn hng c quy m ln nht h thng (v mng li, quy m cho vay, huy
ng), c nh gi tng i r, vi P/B iu chnh l 1.85x. Ngn hng t k hoch li nhun trc
thu t 8,800 t ng, tng 3% yoy, tng ng EPS 2017 l 1,568 ng/cp. ng ch , CTG d kin
mua li ton b n xu bn cho VAMC v t x l trong nm 2017 (gi tr rng cn li l 6,541 t
ng). Chng ti lu , vi quy m ti san nghi ng ln (54,350 t ng), nhiu khoan cho vay tp trung,
gi tr ti san am bao ln (trung bnh l 179% gi tr cho vay), CTG s c hng li sau khi Ngh quyt
x l n xu i vo thc thi, qua o, cai thin cht lng ti san v ngun thu nhp cho ngn hng.

Gi
P/B
EPS BV iu Gi ngy hp l
BV ROA ROE CAR P/B iu Link
2017F chnh 29/09/2017 ca c
chnh
phiu
MBB 2,272 15,945 11,248 1.31% 13.05% 12.50% 1.36 1.93 21,750 26,000 Link
ACB 1,872 15,097 11,842 0.67% 11.48% 13.19% 2.03 2.58 30,600 30,200 Link
CTG 1,648 16,200 9,996 0.75% 12.06% 10.40% 1.14 1.85 18,500 21,500 Link
VCB 2,009 14,484 13,697 0.96% 15.32% 11.13% 2.60 2.75 37,600 41,100 Link
VIB N/A 15,494 8,507 0.60% 7.15% 13.30% 1.39 2.54 21,600 N/A

Sources: BSC research

Ngnh Bt ng sn [Kh quan]
Th trng cn h bn tip tc giao dch si ng, tng lng giao dch trong Q2/2017 ti
TP.HCM t nh t nm 2011 ti nay vi 11,600 cn, tng 67% YoY.
S lng cn h m bn mi giam ti Tp. H Ch Minh v H Ni.
Tc giam gi tr hng tn kho c du hiu chm li.
KQKD ca ngnh bt ng san tng trng mnh phan nh giai oan phc hi ca ngnh bt ng
san.

im ri li nhun s bt u t Q4/2017 v nm 2018.

Lnh vc BS khu cng nghip duy tr trin vng tch cc do ngun vn FDI tng mnh
Chng ti nh gi KH QUAN vi cc c phiu trong ngnh Bt ng san.

Thc trng Qu 3 2017

Th trng cn h bn tip tc giao dch si ng: Tng lng giao dch trong 1H2017 ti th trng
Tp. H Ch Minh t 11,600 cn, tng mnh +67% YoY, lng giao dch trong Q2/2017 t nh t
nm 2011 ti nay; tp trung ch yu ti khu vc pha Ty bao gm cc qun 6, 8, Tn Ph v Bnh khi ln
song u t chuyn hng t khu ng sang khu Ty. Ti th trng H Ni, tng lng giao dch t
6,800 cn h, tng 13% YoY. Phn khc si ng nht vn l cn h Hng B tp trung ti cc qun H
ng, Hong Mai, T Lim v Thanh Xun, chim khoang 60% th phn.

S lng cn h m bn mi gim ti Tp. H Ch Minh v H Ni. Theo bo co th trng qu 2/2017

ca Savills, s lng cn h m bn mi ti Tp. H Ch Minh t 4,700 cn (+8.05% YoY), dn ti tng
ngun cung s cp giam 7% YoY so vi mc tng 13% ca Q1/2016. Trong khi o, s cn h m bn mi
ti H Ni t 6,850 cn, giam nh 4% YoY; tuy nhin nh s lng cn h m bn Q1/2017 tng mnh
gip cho tng ngun cung s cp ti H Ni t 24,550 cn (+42% YoY).

Tc gim gi tr hng tn kho c du hiu chm li. Tnh n 20/6/2017, theo s liu ca Hip hi
bt ng san Vit Nam (VNReal), tng gi tr tn kho bt ng san ca nc t 27,341 t ng (-13.2%
YTD), BSC nhn thy tc giam gi tr hng tn kho bt u chm li sau qu trnh phc hi m dn
ln ca ngnh bt ng san. Hin ti, phn khc t nn nh vn chim t trng cao nht 47.6% tng
gi tr hng tn kho , phn khc nh thp tng v cn h chung c chim ln lt 26.6% v 16.7% c cu
tn kho, phn cn li thuc v t nn thng mi.

KQKD ca ngnh bt ng sn tng trng mnh phn nh giai oan phc hi ca ngnh bt ng
sn. Theo thng k, tng doanh thu 6 thng u nm 2017 ca cc doanh nghip BS trn sn t 57.4
nghn t (+41.2% YoY) , tuy nhin LNST t 4,023 ngn t , tng nh 3% so vi cng k, ch yu anh
hng NVT. Tuy nhin, ch c 30/52 doanh nghip ghi nhn KQKD cai thin so vi nm ngoi phan nh
s phn ha trong ngnh, khi nhng doanh nghip c san phm cht lng, uy tn v am bao tin
mi co c hi pht trin trong bi canh ngun cung tng i di do trn th trng.
 DT DT % LNST LNST % Hng tn KH tr tin KH Tr tin
M
1H2016 1H2017 tng/gim 1H2017 1H2016 tng/gim kho trc trc/ HTK
VIC 35.194 24.005 47% 1.715 1.543 11% 53,647 57,992 108%
DXG 879 1.087 -19% 203 148.9 36% 1,394 899.6 65%
KDH 1.955 1.252 56% 234 201 16% 4,034 777.7 19%
SCR 550 168 228% 67 37 79% 3,795 2,778 73%
DIG 586 488 20% 8 1 773% 3,154 767.7 24%
ITC 293 69 323% 38 0 28249% 2,686 313.7 12%
NVL 3.333 4.966 -33% 840.5 1,553 -184% 20,030 6,905 34%
KBC 484 1.113 -56% 414 391 5% 8.217 399.1 5%
NLG 1.262 1.068 18% 310 127 143% 3.495 1,160 33%
Ngun: BCTC doanh nghip, BSC Research
im ri li nhun s bt u t Q4/2017 v nm 2018. Do tr trong ghi nhn doanh thu v li
nhun nn nhiu doanh nghip mc d c tc bn hng tt nhng hin ti vn cha phan nh ht
vo KQKD. T l KH tra tin trc/Hng tn kho ca mt s doanh nghip trong Q2/2017 cng co cai
thin so vi Q1/2017 nh VIC, DXG, SCR, NVL, NLG. Do o, chng ti k vng KQKD ca nhiu doanh
nghip (VIC, DXG, SCR) s tip tc tng trng mnh t cui nm 2017 khi co thm cc d n ln tip
tc c bn giao nh nh Opal Riverside - Opal Garden (DXG), Charmington La Pointe (SCR), Vinhome
Central Park Time City Park Hill (VIC), Orchard Garden Lakeview City Rivergate Residence The
Tresor Residence GardenGate Residence (NVL).

Lnh vc BS khu cng nghip duy tr trin vng tch cc do ngun vn FDI tng mnh. C th, trong 9
thng u nm 2017, vn u t nc ngoi FDI ng k cp v gp vn mua c phn t 25,48 t USD
(+34.3% yoy), lng vn giai ngn t 12.5 t USD (+13,4% yoy) cao hn so vi d bo u nm l 24 t
USD cho FDI ng k v 15.5 t USD cho FDI giai ngn. iu ny c k vng to ra lng cu ln v
thu t ti khu cng nghip. Cc doanh nghip trn sn c qu t ln v cn din tch m rng cho
thu l KBC, LHG v VGC.

Quan im u t

Chng ti nh gi KH QUAN vi cc c phiu trong ngnh Bt ng san khi tnh hnh giao dch trn th
trng bt ng san vn duy tr c s si ng, c bit cc phn khc cn h trung cp v gi r.
Tnh hnh thu tin theo tin ca khch hng tip tc cai thin so vi Q1/2016 gip cc doanh nghip
cn i c dng tin v giam bt p lc ph thuc vo dng vn vay ca ngn hng b sit cht theo
TT36. Giai on 2017-2018, kt qua kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip BS d bo tip tc cai thin nh
chu k ghi nhn doanh thu. Chng ti duy tr nh gi tch cc i vi nhng ch u t co san phm
cht lng v tin bn hng tt nh VIC, KDH, SCR v DXG.

DXG Gi mc tiu 23,800 ng/cp Upside 17.8%

DXG l mt trong nhng cng ty mi gii co uy tn hng u ti Vit Nam, ngoi ra DXG cng l mt
trong nhng ch u t tp trung vo phn khc trung cp. Trong 6T2017, doanh nghip ghi nhn
khoang 270 t ng LNST. D kin trong 6T cui nm, vi nhm d n s cp, DXG s ghi nhn 100% d
n Opal Riverside (LNTT khoang 383 t ng) v 50% d n Opal Garden (LNTT khoang 106 t ng),
ngoi ra s tip tc ghi nhn ngun thu t cc d n th cp. c tnh ca nm 2017, LNST ca DXG ca
nm 2017 s t t 800 1,200 t ng (+49% - 123%yoy), tng ng EPS 2017 t t 2,641 3,961
ng, ch yu c ghi nhn trong Q4/2017. BSC cho rng mc tng trng cao ca LNST s tip tc
c duy tr trong nm 2018. Vi 5 d n ang c trin khai (Opal Gargden, Opal Skyview, Opal
Tower, Lux Gardern, Lux Riverview) c LNTT c th ghi nhn trong nm 2018 t mang s cp l 600 t
ng, ngoi ra cc d n th cp s l ngun li nhun chnh cho DXG trong nm 2018. Cho giai on
2019 2020, DXG ln phng n trin khai khoang 9 d n v xy dng qu t ti cc tnh cp 2
chun b cho k hoch 5 7 nm ti.

KBC Gi mc tiu 20,000 ng/cp upside 17%

KBC l doanh nghip hng u trong lnh vc bt ng san khu cng nghip do c li th ln vi qu t
chim khoang 8% tng din tch t KCN ton quc cng vi chi ph giai phng mt bng r. KBC l mt
trong nhng cng ty u t bt ng san KCN hng u trn sn. Tng din tch ln n 5,174 ha t
khu cng nghip (KCN) chim 6% din tch KCN ca nc v 1,063 ha t khu th (KT). Trong nm
2017, doanh thu ca KBC s n ch yu t KCN Quang Chu, KCNTrng Du 2 v KT Phc Ninh. Chng
ti c tnh LNST cho c ng cng ty m ca KBC nm nay c t khoang 750 t ng, EPS forward
2017 = 1,596 ng/cp, tng ng P/E forward = 8.8x.

Trong di hn, chng ti nh gi trin vng tch cc i vi KBC nh xu hng tng mnh ngun vn
FDI vo Vit Nam, trong o: (1) doanh thu chnh tip tc n t khu cng nghip Quang Chu (Bc
Giang) v khu th Phc Ninh (Bc Ninh) - Ngoi giao m v (2) Khu cng nghip Trng Du 2 (Hai
Phng), khu cng nghip Nam Sn Hp Lnh (Bc Ninh), KCN Qu V s bt u ong gop vo doanh thu
k t nm 2018.

M DT 2017 LN 2017 EPS P/E FW P/B ROE C tc Gi ng Gi mc

CK (t ng) (t ng) 2017 2017 2017 ca tiu
30/09/2017
VIC 80,000 3000 1,137 45 4.2 7% n/a 51,200 N/A
DXG 3,300 800 2,641 7.9 1.32 19.4% 20% 21,000 23,800
KDH 3,200 500 2,136 11.2 1.9 11.7% 10% tin 24,000 25,100
SCR 2,500 205 903 12.4 0.9 6.3% n/a 11,200 11,600
KBC 4,000 750 1,596 8.8 1 10.2% n/a 14,600 20,000
DIG 1,406 128 504 31.5 1.3 4.3% 6% - 8% 15,900 16,500
Ngun: BSC Research
 Ngnh Xy dng [Kh quan]
Thc trng 2Q2017
Gi tr san xut xy dng tng trng n nh t 506.6 nghn t ng, tng 11% yoy.
KQKD ngnh xy dng tng trng mnh trong 1H2017 nhng phn hoa ln gia cc doanh
nghip nim yt: 52/108 DN tng trng so vi cng k 2015.
Th trng xy dng cng nghip k vng tng trng tt nh vo lng vn FDI vo Vit Nam
ghi nhn mc tng trng 2 con s
BSC duy tr nh gi Kha quan i vi ngnh Xy dng trong Q4 nm 2017.
Gi tr sn xut xy dng tng trng n nh: 6 thng u nm 2017, gi tr san xut xy dng theo
gi hin hnh c t 506.6 ngn t ng (+11% YoY); khu vc xy dng ngoi nh nc vn tip tc
ong gop chnh trong c cu t trng vi gi tr xy dng t 443.2 t ng (+12.4% YoY). Trong khi khu
vc nh nc ghi nhn mc tng nh 3.9% YoY, khu vc c vn u t nc ngoi tng nh 1.2% YoY.

T trng ngnh xy dng 1H2017 Tng trng so vi cng k

5.3%
7.4% 14.0% 12.4%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0% 3.9%
4.0%
1.2%
87.5% 2.0%
0.0%
Khu vc Nh nc Khu vc ngoi Nh nc Khu vc Nh nc Khu vc ngoi Nh Khu vc co VT
Khu vc VT nc ngoi nc nc ngoi

Ngun: Tng cc thng k % BSC tng hp

KQKD ngnh xy dng tng trng mnh trong 1H2017 nhng phn ha ln gia cc doanh nghip
nim yt. Trong 1Q2017, tng doanh thu ca cc doanh nghip xy dng t 46,841 t ng (+1.9%
YoY), vi tng li nhun sau thu tng mnh ln 2,312 t ng (+14% YoY). S tng trng mnh v
LNST ny c ong gop ch yu nh vo vic cai thin bin li nhun rng ca nhm ngnh xy lp
nh HBC, VCG, FCN, LCG. S tng trng thu hp li vi ch 52/108 doanh nghip ghi nhn tng trng
v li nhun so vi cng k nm trc, trong o cc doanh nghip u ngnh tip tc ghi nhn tng
trng mnh m: CTD (LNST +20% YOY), HBC (LNST +175% YoY).

LNST BIn LNG Bin LNG P/E P/B

1H2017 DT ( t ) % yoy %yoy
(t ) 1H2017 1H2016
CTD 10.544 29% 713 20% 8,7% 6,8% 10,3 2,5
HBC 6.757 66% 377 175% 11,4% 5,3% 9,9 4,4
VCG 4.189 29% 276 43% 16,4% 5,7% 15,9 1,5
PC1 1.381 -12% 122 -38% 17,5% 10,1% 9,8 1,7
FCN 706 10% 57 28% 15,8% 7,4% 6,4 1,1
HUT 1.034 -13% 183 15% 28,3% 14,5% 5,3 0,9
CTI 558 -2% 70 26% 38,9% 10,5% 10,5 1,6
LCG 511 52% 41 106% 12,1% 6,2% 9,7 0,8
VNE 509 74% 74 -401% 15,1% 1,3% 6,9 0,7
Ngun: BCTC doanh nghip, BSC Research
BSC duy tr nh gi Kh quan i vi ngnh Xy dng trong Q4/2017 nh vi ng lc chnh n t:
(1) Q4 thng l qu ghi nhn kt qua kinh qua kinh doanh tt nht ca cc doanh nghip xy dng nh
vo tnh cht ma v bn giao nh ca cc cng ty bt ng san. (2) Backlog ca cc doanh nghip u
ngnh vn duy tr c mc tng trng n tng CTD (30,451 t, +10% YoY), HBC (21,000 t, +20.1 %)
so vi u nm), (3) dng vn FDI tip tc ghi nhn mc tng trng k lc. Chng ti cho rng cc
nhm ngnh xy dng dn dng u ngnh nh CTD v HBC vn cn d a tng trng tip tc trong
nm 2018. Nhom c phiu xy dng cng nghip v xy dng h tng cn kh nhiu tim nng.
CTD Gi mc tiu 252,300 ng/cp upside 21.2%

Doanh thu 1H2017 ca CTD t 10,544 t ng (+29.9% yoy), li nhun gp 1H2017 t 879 t ng
(+20.0%), li nhun rng t 713 t ng (+19.7% yoy), tng ng hon thnh xx% k hoch doanh
thu v 40.7% k hoch li nhun ca nm. Hin ti, CTD cng b 1 s cc hp ng ln trong 2H2017
nh Casino Hi An (7,000 t ng), nh my Paohong giai on 2 v 3 (1,900 t ng). BSC d bo nm
2017, DTT ca CTD s t 27,158 t ng (+30.7% yoy) hon thnh k hoch nm. LNG c tnh t
2,308 t (+28.3%yoy) nh vo tng trng t gi tr hp ng k mi v backlog nm 2016. LNST 2017
t 1,879 t (+35.2%yoy) tng ng EPS 2017 = 21,434 ng (gia nh trch 7.5% qu khen thng phc
li); P/E Forward = 10,1 ln

HUT Gi mc tiu 14,700 ng/cp upside 27.2%

HUT l mt trong nhng doanh nghip dn u lnh vc xy dng h tng giao thng ti min Bc.T 2
nm tr li y, HUT chuyn hng dn sang mang Bt ng san bng hnh thc trin khai cc d n
BT i t. ng lc tng trng chnh cho KQKD 2H2017 ch yu n t 2 d n 2 d n Xun Phng
Residence v South Building, vi t l cn h bn 100%, c tnh ghi nhn 3,300 t ng. Ngoi ra,
HUT cng s ghi nhn khoang 800 t cn li t d n Foresa Villa. Doanh thu t mang thu ph BOT c
tnh t 600 t nm 2017 (+57% yoy). Khi 5 trm BOT i vo hot ng n nh, HUT s c khoang 800 t
doanh thu mi nm. BSC c tnh DT 2017 hp nht t khoang 4,600 t, LNST khoang 550 t v EPS
2017 =2.287 ng. P/E forward = 5.1x ln.
PC1 Gi mc tiu 39,600 ng/cp upside 11.3%.
PC1 l doanh nghip u ngnh trong lnh vc xy lp truyn tai in (40% th phn). PC1 cng tham gia
u t vo phn khc Bt ng san trung cp v s hu danh mc u t Thy in vi tng cng sut
162 MW. Trong nm 2017, hot ng xy lp ng truyn tai in s gi vai tr ong gop ct li trong
c cu doanh thu. Tnh t u nm 2017, PC1 k c 63 triu USD hp ng, qua o nng tng gi
tr hp ng cha thc hin ln 120 triu USD. Tuy nhin, trong nm 2017, mang bt ng san s khng
co ong gop vo doanh thu, d kin nm 2018 PC1 s ghi nhn 1,200 t doanh thu t d n M nh
Plaza 2. i vi mang thy in, t thang 12/2017, hai nh my mi Bao Lm 3 (cng sut 46MW) v
Bao Lm 3A (cng sut 8MW) s i vo hot ng, tng ng, + 91% tng cng sut. Ngoi ra, cng
ty cng co k hoch xy dng 2 nh my thy in na l Mng An (cng sut 30MW) v Bao Lc B
(cng sut 18MWG), +42% tng cng sut. Do o BSC cho rng trong nm 2017 tng trng doanh thu
ca PC1 s khng co t bin, im ri li nhun s bt u t nm 2018 nh ong gop t BS v thy
in.
CTI Gi mc tiu 31,800 ng/cp upside 7.8%.
Chng ti duy tr khuyn ngh Mua c phiu CTI vi gi mc tiu 31.800 ng/cp. Ngy 30/09/2017, c
phiu CTI c giao dch ti mc gi 30,150 ng/cp, tng ng P/E FW l 9.4x. Nh chng ti
cp trong cc bo co phn tch v cp nht trc y, chng ti a thch c phiu CTI nh (1) hot
ng thu ph BOT mang li dng tin n nh, bin li nhun cao, t t 62-88% trong nm 2016 v ri
ro thp; (2) trin vng kinh doanh di hn n t vic y mnh khai thc cc m v vn hnh khu
cng nghip. Chng ti cho rng trong nm 2017, doanh thu v li nhun ca CTI s khng t bin
ng k. Chng ti t k vng cao vo mang cho nm 2018. C th, CTI d kin s em vo khai thc
khoang 2 triu m3 . CTI hin ang s hu 4 m l Tn Cang 8, i Cha 3, Bnh Li v Xun Ha vi
tng tr lng cn li ln ti 38 triu m3, thi gian khai thc cn li di (n nm 2034) trong bi canh
(1) nhiu m trong, khu vc s ht hn giy php khai thc trong nm ti, (2) gi bn tng khoang
15%-20% so vi cng k nh vo nhu cu xy dng tng mnh.
M DT 2017F LN 2017F EPS P/E P/B ROE Dividend Gi ng Gi mc
CK (t ng) (t ng) 2017F 2017F 2017F 2017F 2017 ca tiu
30/9/2017
CTD 27,158 1,879 21,434 9.7 2.7 27% 30% tin 208,000 252,300
HBC 16,000 828 6,426 9.6 3.9 42% 15% tin 61,400 n/a
VCG 10,222 585 1,324 15.6 1.5 7.8% 10% tin 20,700 n/a
FCN 2,800 210 4,242 5.1 1.2 16.3% 10% tin 21,600 28,100
HUT 3,309 462 2,447 4.9 0.5 17.4% 15% tin 12,100 14,700
CTI 1,396 140.9 2,309 13.4 1.6 16.2% 17% tin 30,900 31,800
PC1 3,585 307 3,137 11.3 1.3 14.5% 20% tin 35,350 39,600
LCG 1,500 70 917 12.4 0.7 6.5% 7% tin 11,350 n/a
VNE 1,113 111 1,228 6.7 1 11.3% 10% tin 8,260 n/a
Ngun: BSC Research
Ngnh Cng ngh [Kh quan]
Mng 4G ph sng ti 95% dn s Vit Nam
Cht lng tng trng vin thng Vit Nam c cai thin, doanh thu lnh vc vin thng 9
thng nm 2017 c tnh t 283.9 nghn t ng, tng 8.1% so vi cng k nm 2016
KQKD ca nhm doanh nghip CNTT Vin thng tip tc tng trng tt
Mng 4G ph sng ti 95% dn s Vit Nam. Hn 80,000 trm thu pht song 4G v ang c
trin khai nhm mc tiu ph sng 4G trn ton b lnh th Vit Nam t nay cho n cui nm 2017.
Sau qu trnh khi ng, VNPT trin khai lp t trm 4G ti nhiu a phng chun b cho vic
ph bin mng ny trn ton quc trong nm 2017. Theo k hoch, trong nm nay, VNPT s a khoang
15,000 trm thu pht sng 4G chnh thc i vo hot ng, ph sng tt ca cc khu vc trng im ti
63 tnh thnh trn ca nc. Trong khi o, Viettel khai trng dch v 4G LTE trn ton quc s dng
cng ngh 4T4R trong thng 4 va qua, ng thi tin khai 36,000 trm thu pht sng, ph sng 95%
dn s. Ring nh mng MobiFone, hin nay MobiFone xy dng c 4.500 trm pht sng 4G LTE
v d kin con s ny s l 30,000 trm pht song 4G giai on 2017 2018. Mc ph song tng
trng nhanh nh vy s thc y s pht trin khng ch cho ton x hi m cn ton ngnh bn l
thit b di ng h tr chun 4G nh tnh trng xay ra ti Trung Quc vo u nm 2016.

Cht lng tng trng vin thng Vit Nam c ci thin. Theo Tng cc Thng k, hin c 113.2
triu thu bao di ng giam 12.7% so vi cng k nm ngoi do B Thng tin v Truyn thng tip tc
thc hin thanh tra i vi cc nh mng trong vic quan l sim rc, d kin s lng thu bao di ng
tip tc b ct giam. Bn cnh o, s thu bao Internet bng rng c nh c tnh t 10.5 triu thu
bao, tng 19.5% so vi cng k nm 2016. Doanh thu lnh vc vin thng 9 thng nm 2017 c tnh t
283.9 nghn t ng, tng 8.1% so vi cng k nm 2016.

Cp nht KQKD Q2 2017 v Q1 2017 ca cc doanh nghip.

KQKD 6 thng 2017 ca FPT tng i n tng vi LNTT ca khi Cng ngh t 453 t ng (+32%yoy,
tng trng ch yu ong gop bi mang Xut khu phn mm) v khi Vin thng t 623 t ng
(+1%yoy, ong gop chnh bi mang dch v vin thng t tng trng 18%yoy do chi ph cp quang
giam).

M Doanh thu thun LNST thuc v c ng FPT EPS

6T2017 6T2016 yoy 6T2017 6T2016 yoy 6T2017 6T2016 yoy
FPT 19,365 17,425 11% 924 820 12.7% 1,747 1,556 12.3%

Hai doanh nghip CMG v ITD c qu ti chnh Q12017 kt thc vo 30/06 cng cng b BCTC
Q12017, theo o ITD ghi nhn LNST giam 59.4%yoy. Vi CMG, tng trng ong gop phn ln bi mang
lnh vc vin thng , vi DT Q12017 mang vin thng t 321.8 t ng (+6% YoY), LNTT t 30.6 t
ng (+7.5% YoY), nh tuyn cp quang bin APG i vo hot ng.

M Doanh thu thun Bin LNG LNST EPS

Q12017 Q12016 yoy Q12017 Q12016 Q12017 Q12016 yoy Q12017 Q12016 yoy
CMG 1,040 987 5.4% 13.46% 12.87% 26.5 20.6 28.6% 398 259 53.7%
ITD 73 101 -27.7% 35.62% 24.75% 1.5 3.7 -59.4% 73 243 -69.9%
Quan im u t Kh quan

Chng ti nh gi Kha quan vi Ngnh CNTT Vin thng nh trong cc bo co trc ca BSC. Chng
ti duy tr khuyn ngh Mua trung v di hn vi hai m c phiu u ngnh l FPT v CMG do hot ng
kinh doanh tip tc tng trng n nh v bn vng.

FPT Mua Gi mc tiu VND 60,228

Cp nht KQKD 8T2017: DTT t 27,340 t ng (+11%yoy), LNTT t 1,992 t ng (+16%yoy), LNST
thuc v c ng cng ty m t 1,303 t ng (+16%yoy), EPS 8T2017 = 2,460 ng.

Thoi vn ti Khi Bn l: FPT hon thnh thoi vn bc 1 (30% t l SH) cho nh u t t chc,
giam t l s hu ca FPT t 85% (hin ti) v 55%. Bc 2: Bn ti a thm 10% cho cc nh u t
khc thng qua cng ty chng khon, giam t l s hu ca FPT ti FPT Retail xung di 50%. D kin
thng v s c hon thnh trong nm 2017, sau o FPT Retail s ln nim yt trn HSX trong nm
2018. BSC c tnh nu FPT giam t l s hu l 35% ti FPT Retail th EPS mi c phiu FPT tng thm
1,131 ng/cp.

Thoi vn ti Khi Phn phi: tng lng tin thu c t thng v ny l khoang 1,431 t ng (bao
gm 638 t ng nhn v t li nhun gi li ca FPT Trading).

CMG Mua Gi mc tiu VND 20,359

Theo BCTC ca CMG, DTT Q1 nm ti chnh 2017/2018 t 1,040 t ng (+5.37%yoy), bin LNG t
13.47% tng nh so vi mc 12.96% ca cng k 2016. LNST thuc v c ng cng ty m t 26.51 t
ng (+28.59%yoy), EPS Q1 = 398 ng

Tip tc y mnh u t cho Data center v ng truyn. Hin nay CMG ang co Data Center din
tch hn 1,000m2 ti H Ni, doanh thu d kin mi nm t 90 100 t ng, bin LNTT l 10 15%, chi
ph u t cho DC 1,000 m2 khoang 40 t ng. Trong thi gian ti, CMG d kin s thu khu t
9,000m2 ti Tn Thun Tp. HCM xy dng complex, trong o khu DC rng t 3,000 4,000 m2, bn
cnh o s c khu lp trnh phn mm v khu vn phng cho cn b ti tp. HCM. V vic xy dng
ng truyn, trc Bc Nam ca CMG d kin c khnh thnh trong thng 9/2017, tng vn u t
khoang 200 t ng, khu hao trong 10 nm, doanh nghip c tnh khi a trc Bc Nam vo s dng
s gip tit kim chi ph do chi ph khu hao mi nm s thp hn chi ph i thu hin ti, ngoi ra CMG
c th cho i tc thu ng truyn.

Gi ng
LNST EPS ROE Div Gi mc
M DT 2017 PE 2017 PB 2017 ca
2017 2017 2017 2017 tiu
29/09/2017
FPT 46,619 3,058 5,157 9.09 2.09 19.88% 20%tm 48,750 60,228
CMG 5,042 198 2,237 6.79 0.95 10.18% N/A 16,700 20,359
Ngun: BSC d bo, vi CMG l d bo cho nm ti chnh 2017 (01/04/2017 31/03/2018), LNST thuc
v c ng cty m CMG 2017/2018 d bo t 155.8 t ng
Ngnh in [Kh quan]
San lng in thng phm 8T2017 t 113.9 t kWh (+8.8%yoy).
1H2017, nhit in giam su, thy in tip tc tng trng.
C phiu thy in s n nh, nhiu c hi t cc c phiu nhit in.
8T2017, sn lng in thng phm t 113.9 t kWh (+8.8%yoy), trong o in thng phm ni
a c t 113,17 t kWh, tng 9%. T trng thy in trong 6T2017 tng ln mc gn 23% so vi
mc ch 13% trong cng k 2016 nh tnh hnh thy vn din bin thun li. Ngc li, t trng nhit
in kh giam mnh t 37% xung ch cn 31% trong tng lng in bn trn th trng pht in cnh
tranh, do gi kh u vo tng 16% yoy.

Kt qu kinh doanh qu 1H2017. Thy in tip tc tng trng mnh nh lng nc v tip tc
gi mc cao. Trong khi o, xt cc doanh nghip nhit in than v kh, gi u vo tng mnh so vi
cng k 2016 gip doanh thu tng trng kh tuy nhin tc ng tng ng ti BLNG, kt hp vi thy
in hot ng rt hiu qua trong k lm LNST giam su ( tr PPC nh giam mnh l chnh lch t gi).

Tng hp kt qu kinh doanh qu 1H2017

Revenue Net income
1H2017 YoY 1H2017 YoY P/E P/B
NT2 3,549.97 20% 456.32 -34% 9.20 1.51
KHP 1,747.48 9% (26.92) NA 50.88 0.70
NBP 319.97 -9% 5.79 -65% 18.08 0.75
PPC 3,157.88 -1% 593.49 NA 4.34 1.17
BTP 385.11 -51% (33.43) -176% 16.76 0.67
CHP 411.89 135% 197.70 11090% 7.79 2.10
SHP 224.27 72% 22.32 -142% 12.37 1.77
SJD 213.83 56% 88.90 48% 8.05 1.49
TMP 361.33 80% 158.87 470% 10.11 2.53
TBC 132.95 -4% 65.64 -10% 15.37 1.84
SBA 140.65 166% 54.13 55609% 7.96 1.38
Ngun: BCTC cc cng ty

Quan im u t
Hai qu cui nm thng l thi im san lng ca cc doanh nghip nhit in c huy ng cao
hn do a s cc doanh nghip thy in bc vo ma kh, v vy san lng bn s cai thin so vi 2
qu u nm. Vi cc doanh nghip thy in, trin vng qu 4 v nm 2018 s kh gi c tng
trng mnh nh nm 2017. Chng ti duy tr khuyn ngh Kha Quan vi ngnh in nh tnh phng
th cao. Chng ti cng cho rng cc doanh nghip thy in c ban i vo giai on n nh, cc c
phiu nhit in s c nhiu c hi hn trong qu 4 v nm 2018.
NT2- Khuyn ngh Nm gi- Gi mc tiu 32.400 ng
Trong khoang thi gian t 1/9 ti 14/10, NT2 s thc hin i tu 2 t my khin k hoch san xut in
nm 2017 ch mc khoang 4.5 triu kWh. Tuy nhin yu t ngn hn ny theo chng ti khng anh
hng ln ti yu t ni ti bn vng ca cng ty. Ti ngy 31/12/2016, NT2 co d n ngoi t l trn
123 triu USD v 112 triu EUR. Trong 1H2017, t gi EUR tng khoang 12% so vi ng VND, mt
trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh lm cho NT2 ghi nhn l t gi 128 t (so vi li t gi 49 t trong
1H2016). Tuy nhin chng ti nhn nh yu t ny ch co tc ng tm thi ln NT2. Trong qu 4/2017,
B cng Thng thc hin ngng th trng pht in cnh tranh v u tin huy ng in t nhit
in kh s gip san lng in ca NT2 cai thin ng k, c bit sau khi NT2 hon thnh sa cha
ln.
PPC- Khuyn ngh Nm gi- Gi mc tiu 19.300 ng
Vic PPC thc hin k hoch ti cu trc n vay bng ng JPY, giam mnh ri ro bin ng t gi, lm
cho chng ti thay i quan im nh gi vi PPC. n cui nm 2016, PPC co d n bng ng yn
khoang 21.35 t JPY. Trong thng 2, PPC thc hin tra trc 8 t JPY vi t gi theo tnh ton l 204
VND/JPY, ti tr bng ngun vn nhn ri ca cng ty. Trong thng 5/2017, PPC tip tc tra tip 8 t JPY,
giam d n ng JPY xung cn khoang 6 t JPY. Mt s ri ro nh u t cn cn nhc: (1) . Nh my
PL1 ht khu hao nn hiu sut s dng kh thp, to ra kho khn cho PPC trong vic xin Qc cho nh
my ny. (2) 817 t ng u t vo QTP phai trch lp d phng 409 t nm 2015, hon nhp 85 t
nm 2016. Tuy nhin d bo tnh hnh kinh doanh ca QTP trong nm 2017 s kh khn do chnh lch t
gi.
VSH- Khuyn Ngh MUA- Gi mc tiu 20.530 ng.
Trong qu 1 v qu 2/2017, nh hng li t lng ma ln trong khu vc, kt qua kinh doanh ca VSH
tng trng mnh so vi cng k 2016. Chng ti nhn nh trong qu 3, KQKD ca VSH tip tc din
bin kha quan. Tuy nhin trong qu 4, thi im cc h cha ca VSH tch t nc dng cho san xut cc
qu u nm 2018, co th anh hng do d bo El Nino tr li. Tuy nhin chng ti nhn nh y ch l
anh hng tm thi. Tm nhn 1 nm, chng ti khuyn ngh Mua vi gi mc tiu 20.530 ng. Khuyn
ngh ny cha phan nh tim tim nng di hn ca d n Thng Kon Tum (cng sut 220 MW i vo
hot ng d kin t thng 3/2019).
M DT LNST ROE Gi ngy Gi mc
EPS 2017 P/E fw P/B
CK 2017 2017 2017 29/09/2017 tiu
NT2 7,161 884 3,104 9.43 1.62 23% 26,550 32,400
PPC 6,567 600 1,712 11.92 1.18 10.6% 20,250 19,300
SJD 468 225 3,261 7.36 1.01 17% 23,250 NA
CHP 667 298 2,366 11.16 1.80 22% 27,000 23,200
VSH 643 381 1,846 9.15 1.18 12% 18,400 20,530
 Ngnh Phn bn [Kh quan]
Tnh n 15/9/2017, xut khu phn bon tng 44% yoy v lng v 36% v gi tr; nhp khu
tng tng ng l 22% v 20%.
Gi phn bon tng nh trong qu 3/2017, tuy nhin, vn mc thp. Gi ure tng 4.94% yoy,
DAP tng 1.71% yoy trong khi gi NPK n nh.
Gi kh u vo tng 26% yoy lm giam hiu qua sinh li ca DPM
Thng 8/2017, B Ti chnh hon thnh d n sa i, b sung chnh sch thu, trong o a
phn bon vo i tng chu thu VAT. Comment [TTHT3]: thm l ln QH thao
lun na vo Thags 11 ny
Chnh thc p dng bin php thu t v 1.855.790 VND/tn i vi phn bn DAP v MAP Tra li: trong danh sch cc lut QH thao lun vo
thng 11 ny, 1 ln na li k c ni dung v lut
nhp khu t 19/8/2017, ko di khng qu 200 ngy. thu a . E cng ang nghe n l c th ni dung
ny khng c thng qua do p lc v ngn sch
Th trng phn bn dn hi phc vi nhiu doanh nghip c kt qua kinh doanh qu II/2017 (anh c th hi thm anh Khoa v ci ny ). Nu
ci ny li k c thng qua na, th phn bn
tng mnh nh DCM, LAS, BFC. cng k c tt lm, e ang phn vn vi khuyn
ngh kha quan cho ngnh PHn bn
Thc trng Qu 3/2017 http://nhandan.com.vn/chinhtri/item/34128502-
ngay-23-10-khai-mac-ky-hop-thu-4-quoc-hoi-khoa-
xiv.html
Nhp khu phn bn tng 22% v lng tnh n 15/09/2017, t 3.4 triu tn, tng 20% v gi tr, t
925 t ng. Mt s san phm nhp khu c tc tng trng nhanh l NPK (+68% yoy), DAP (+41%
yoy), Kali (+28% yoy), duy ch c nhp khu ure giam (-23% yoy).

Gi phn bn th gii c du hiu tng nh trong qu 3/2017. Trong qu 3/2017, trung bnh gi ure th
gii cao hn 4.94%yoy, gi DAP cao hn 1.71%yoy, trong khi gi NPK tng i n nh, ch cao hn
0.61%yoy. im tch cc l t thng 8/2017, gi cc loi phn bn th gii c du hiu tng tr li. Tuy
nhin, trong di hn, gi phn bon c d bo tip tc duy tr mc thp do d cung (IFA d bo,
cung ure d 7%, Kali d 14% ti nm 2021, trong khi o, phn ln c d bo d cung n nm 2019
v tng i cn bng cung- cu vo nm 2021). iu ny tip tc gy p lc gi gi phn bn mc
thp trong di hn, qua o, anh hng n hiu qua hot ng ca cc doanh nghip.

Din bin gi phn bn Din bin gi FO Singapore

390 350

340 300

290
250
240
200
190
150
140
100

Urea DAP
 Ngun: Bloomberg

Gi kh u vo tng. Gi u vo l nguyn liu chnh san xut phn ure ca cc nh my m Ph

M, m C Mau tng 2% so vi qu 2/2017 v tng n 26% so vi cng k nm 2016 lm tng mnh
chi ph u vo ca cng ty. iu ny lm giam mnh kt qua kinh doanh ca DPM (-42%) trong khi o,
nh gi kh tm tnh ca nm mc thp, kt qua kinh doanh ca DCM tng trng 62%yoy trong
6T2017. Chng ti cho rng, vi c ch gi kh PVN p cho DCM, cui nm 2017, li nhun trc thu
ca cng ty s quay v mc 12% vn ch s hu.

Phn bn thuc i tng chu thu VAT theo d tho sa i, b sung chnh sch thu. Theo o,
phn bon c cn nhc chuyn t i tng khng chu thu gi tr gia tng (VAT) sang i tng chu
thu theo mt trong hai phng n: (1) Chu thu VAT 5%; hoc (2) Chu thu VAT 10%, trong o, B Ti
chnh ngh phng n 1. Nu c thng qua, cc quy nh ca Lut d kin c hiu lc vo
1/1/2019. Vi quy nh ny, cc doanh nghip san xut phn n s c khu tr thu gi tr gia tng
u vo, qua o, giam p lc v chi ph. Chng ti c tnh chi ph thu c khu tr l 300 t ng i
vi DPM, hn 100 t ng i vi LAS v khoang 138 t ng i vi DDV.

Chnh thc p dng thu t v 1.855.790 VND/tn i vi phn bn DAP v MAP nhp khu t
19/8/2017, ko di khng qu 200 ngy. iu ny c k vng lm giam tnh trng cnh tranh khng
lnh mnh ca san phm phn bn DAP, MAP san xut trong nc vi phn bn nhp khu, qua o, cai
thin tnh hnh kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip san xut phn bn DAP, MAP nh DDV.

KQKD phn ha. Kt thc 6 thng u nm 2017, nhiu doanh nghip c kt qua kinh doanh cai thin
tch cc, bao gm: QBS (+53% yoy) nh tit tit giam mnh chi ph ti chnh (56 t ng), DCM (+62%)
nh san lng tng mnh v gi kh tm tnh thp, LAS (+55% yoy), BFC (+30% yoy) nh cai thin hiu
qua hot ng. Trong khi o, nhom cc doanh nghip kinh doanh phn bon nh PCN, PSE, PSW, PMB ghi
nhn kt qua kinh doanh st giam mnh.

Sn phm Bin LN thun

chnh DTT % yoy Bin LNG t HKD LNST % yoy
DPM Ure 4350 -2% 28% 13% 454 -42%
DCM Ure 3038 32% 35% 20% 561 62%
LAS Phn ln 2084 2% 20% 6% 95 55%
VAF Phn ln 703 9% 24% 6% 34 0%
NFC Phn ln 368 6% 17% 5% 15 6%
SFG Ln, NPK 1143 -7% 12% 6% 59 10%
BFC NPK 3223 6% 16% 8% 168 30%
DDV DAP 919 59% 3% -4% -41 -81%
QBS Thng mi 1816 -32% 6% 3% 46 544%
PCE Thng mi 1166 -6% 3% 1% 8 -37%
PSE Thng mi 1122 -6% 4% 1% 7 -40%
PSW Thng mi 1111 -2% 3% 1% 8 -45%
PMB Thng mi 821 8% 5% 2% 12 -28%
PCN Thng mi 19 -86% -2% -27% -5 2194%
Ngun: Bloomberg
Quan im u t- Kh quan

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Kh quan i vi nhm c phiu ngnh Phn bn. Trin vng tiu th tt hn
nh thi tit thun li v k vng thay i chnh sch thu VAT sang i tng chu thu c k vng
mang li cai thin li nhun cho nhm cc doanh nghip san xut phn n. Comment [WU4]: Co tin n l chnh sch ny
khng c thng qua

BFC MUA Gi mc tiu 48,700 ng/cp, upside 21%

L doanh nghip co nng lc bn hng tt nht ngnh phn bn vi thng hiu u Tru. Kt qua
kinh doanh tng trng tt trong nm 2017, doanh thu thun tng 6% yoy, li nhun sau thu tng n
30% yoy nh y mnh pht trin cc dng san phm c bin li nhun cao v ong gop t cng ty con
Bnh in Ninh Bnh (gip tit giam khoang t ng chi ph vn chuyn v chi ph thu). Chng ti k
vng, kt qua kinh doanh nm 2017 tip tc kha quan nh (1) nhu cu tiu th tng; (2) gi nng san
tng lm tng nhu cu gieo trng v s dng phn bn. BSC d bo doanh thu thun v li nhun sau
thu ca c ng cng ty m t ln lt l 6,564 t ng v 343 t ng, tng ng EPS 2017 (sau
khi tr qu khen thng phc li) l 5,411 ng/cp. So vi cc doanh nghip nim yt trn sn, c phiu
BFC hin c giao dch ti mc P/E l 7.3x, thp hn mc trung v ca cc doanh nghip nim yt
(10.19x).

SFG MUA Gi mc tiu 16,300 ng/cp, upside 16%

Chng ti k vng, xu hng tng trng li nhun ca cng ty tip tc kha quan trong thi gian ti nh
tng trng tiu th tt hn sau khi gi nhiu loi cy cng nghip (i tng s dng phn chnh ca
cng ty) phc hi, thi tit thun li hn. Ngy 29/09/2017/2017, c phiu SFG c giao dch ti mc
gi 14,000, tng ng P/E FW l 6.93x, tng i hp dn so vi cc cng ty cng ngnh. BSC d bo
doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu ca cng ty t ln lt l 2,591 t ng v 99 t ng, tng
ng EPS 2017 l 1,916 ng/cp.

DPM Theo di Gi mc tiu 22,800 ng/cp

C phiu DPM thu ht s quan tm tr li nh phc hi ca gi phn m v k vng thay i chnh

sch thu gi tr gia tng nh cp trn. Chng ti gia nh, san lng tiu th nm 2017 t 830
nghn tn, gi phn ure tng 1%, t trung bnh khoang 6,200 ng/kg, gi kh trung bnh tng ln 4.16
USD/MMBTU. Khi o, doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu ca DPM c d bo t ln lt l
7,748 t ng v 946 t ng, tng ng EPS 2017 l 2,120 ng/cp. ng thi, nu phn bn tr
thnh mt hng c p dng thu sut thu gi tr gia tng l 0%, li nhun trc thu ca cng ty c
tnh tng thm trn 200 t ng. Chng ti e ngi ri ro GAS thay i chnh sch phn phi gi kh i
vi DPM v khoan phai tra thay PVTEX thc hin trong nm 2017 s tc ng tiu cc n kt qua kinh
doanh ca cng ty trong nm 2017. Nh u t quan tm n DPM cn lu n tin thc hin v
tiu th ca cc d n mi ca DPM, bao gm: Tiu th UFC 85 v tiu th NH3, c bit trong bi canh
cc nh my phn m ca m H Bc v m Ninh Bnh ang hot ng di cng sut; D n NPK
cht lng cao, vi tng cng sut 400.000 tn, vn u t 5000 t ng v cc din bin thi tit, gi
ure v gi kh u vo.
LAS Theo di Gi mc tiu 16,200 ng/cp, upside 4%

L c phiu b nhiu nh u t lng qun do ngnh kho khn, kt qua san xut kinh doanh lin tc
suy giam t nm n nm 2016. Bc sang nm 2017, nh thi tit, nng v thun li hn v gi phn
bon tng tr li, san lng tiu th ti LAS co cai thin. Thm vo o, chnh sch thu VAT, nu thay
i cng s ong gop thm vo khoang 100 t ng li nhun trc thu cho LAS (k vng t nm
2019). Chng ti d bo, DTT v LNST nm 2017 ca cng ty t ln lt l 4,000 t ng v 163 t
ng, tng ng EPS 2017 l 1,355 ng/cp. Nu chnh sch thu VAT c thng qua, chng ti k
vng li nhun sau thu ca cng ty s tng ln n 243 t ng, tng ng EPS mi l 2,021
ng/cp.

DT LNST EPS ROE Gi ti ngy Gi Link bo

M CK P/E FW P/B Dividend 2016
2017E 2017E 2017 2017 29/09/2017 mc co
50% tin mt* tiu
BFC 6,564 344 5,411 7.45 2.35 28% 40,300 48,700 Link
20% cp thng
21% tin mt
SFG 2,591 99 1,916 7.31 1.14 17% 14,000 16,300 Link
10% cp thng
DPM 7,748 946 2,120 10.73 1.1 11% 35% tin mt 22,750 22,800 Link

LAS 4,000 163 1,355 11.51 1.34 12% 10% Tin mt 15,600 16,200 Link

DDV 2,041 1.2 8 987.50 1.19 0.12% N/A 7,900 N/A

Ngnh Cao su [Kh quan]
Th trng cao su th gii ht cung trong ngn hn, thiu ht khoang 500,000 tn trong 8T2017.
Ba quc gia san xut cao su ln nht , gm Thi Lan, Malaysia v Indonesia quyt nh khng
hn ch san xut mt hng cao su
Gi cao su th gii tip tc giam 12% trong qu 3/2017 so vi qu trc, tuy nhin, vn cao hn
8% yoy.
Gi cao su xut khu giam 6% qoq trong qu 3/2017 nhng vn cao hn 36% cng k 2016.

Thc trng Qu 3/2017

Th trng cao su ton cu thiu ht khong 500,000 tn cao su trong 8T2017. Theo thng k t Hip
hi cc quc gia san xut cao su thin nhin ton cu (ANRPC), trong 8T2017, tng nhu cu tiu th cao
su ton th trng l 8,544 triu tn, trong khi tng san lng san xut ch t 8,038 triu tn. Trung
Quc tip tc l th trng tiu th cao su ln nht ton cu, chim khoang 40% san lng. y cng l
quc gia c tc tng trng nhp khu cao su t nhin cao, tng 24.3% trong 8T2017 ln 4.45 triu
tn.

Ba quc gia sn xut cao su ln nht, gm Thi Lan, Malaysia v Indonesia quyt nh khng hn ch
sn xut mt hng cao su. Quyt nh ny c a ra ti Hi ngh cao su ton cu din ra t 12-
14/09/2017. Ba quc gia k trn hin chim khoang 70% ngun cung cao su ton cu. iu ny c d
bo s gy tc ng tiu cc ln gi cao su ton cu.

Gi cao su tip tc gim trong qu 3/2017. So vi qu 2/2017, trung bnh gi cao su RSS3 qu 3/2017
giam tip 12% qoq, do thi tit thun li v anh hng t quyt nh ca 3 quc gia san xut cao su ln
nht. D vy, vn cao hn cng k nm ngoi l 8%, t 181 USD/tn. Ti th trng Vit Nam, trung
bnh gi cao su xut khu giam tip 6% qoq cn 1,609 USD/tn trong qu 3/2017, tuy nhin, trung bnh
gi cao su xut khu 9T2017 vn cao hn 36% cng k 2016, t 1,705 USD/tn.

Din bin gi cao su RSS3

300

250

200

150

100

Ngun: Bloomberg
KQKD ci thin tch cc. Hu ht cc doanh nghip cao su u c kt qua kinh doanh cai thin mnh
trong 6T2017. Doanh thu thun ca nhm cc doanh nghip theo di tng 50%, t 1,536 t ng, li
nhun sau thu tng 2.42x t 441 t ng nh gi cao su xut khu trung bnh tng 37%yoy trong
1H2017 v gi thanh l g cao su tng. Mt s doanh nghip c tc tng trng li nhun sau thu
nhanh l DRI (Chuyn t l 40 t ng trong 1H2016 sang ghi nhn li 81 t ng trong 1H2017), TRC
(+250% yoy), DPR (+136% yoy) v PHR (+107% yoy). Cc doanh nghip c hiu qua kinh doanh cao l
DPR, TNC, DRI nh trnh by bang s liu di y.

Bin LN thun
DTT % yoy Bin LNG t HKD LNST % yoy
PHR 658 59% 19% 15% 139 107%
DPR 400 31% 46% 42% 137 136%
HRC 35 133% 26% 9% 3 -40%
TNC 26 0% 27% 85% 20 5%
TRC 144 0.17 22% 13% 61 205%
DRI 273 95% 44% 31% 81 -303%
Ngun: Bloomberg

Quan im u t- Kh quan

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Kh quan i vi nhm c phiu ngnh Cao su. Gi cao su nm 2017 c d
bo cao hn nm 2016 do d cu. D vy, trin vng gi cao vn ph thuc vo cc yu t th trng
nh gi du, t gi JPY/USD, tnh hnh chnh tr, v iu ny c th gy tc ng tri chiu i vi trin
vng phc hi ca gi cao su trong nm nay. ng thi, gi thanh l g cao su tng cng tc ng tch
cc vo trin vng li nhun ca cc doanh nghip cao su.

PHR MUA Gi mc tiu 45,900 ng/cp, upside 9%

Chng ti khuyn ngh Mua c phiu PHR da trn trin vng li nhun t vic n b t do vn cy
cao su b ly li lm t khu cng nghip v ghi nhn t thoi vn NTC. iu ny, s mang li tng trng
li nhun cho cng ty giai on 2017-2019 trong bi canh hot ng kinh doanh ct li l khai thc cao
su suy giam v san lng v ph thuc vo din bin gi cao su trn th trng th gii.

Li nhun thu c t VSIP. (1) Tin bi thng t, d kin ghi nhn l 1 t ng/ha. Vi 691
ha b thu hi, PHR d kin ghi nhn 300 t ng trong nm 2017 v 391 t ng vo nm 2018.
(2) Li nhun t cho thu khu cng nghip mang li dng tin n nh trong di hn cho PHR l
20% li nhun t khai thc khu cng nghip ny ca VSIP.
Thoi vn NTC. PHR hin nm gi 32.85% c phn ti NTC vi gi tr ghi s l 53 t ng, trong
khi o, gi tr th trng ti ngy 29/09/2017 ln ti 372 t ng. Hin ti, tp on cao su VRG
ang co ch trng s mua li phn vn ca NTC t Phc Ha, thay v k hoch Phc Ha
mua li phn vn t VRG nh trc kia. Tuy nhin, chi tit v gi thoi vn v thi im thoi
vn vn cha co c th.
Gi thanh l vn cy ca Phc Ha tng mnh, t 250 triu ng/ha trong 6T2017 (cng
k 2016 l 160 triu ng/ha). Vi gia nh gi thanh l vn cy cao su l 220 triu ng/ha,
 d kin, 6 thng cui nm 2017, PHR s ghi nhn li nhun l hn 100 t ng t thanh l vn
cy.
Trong khi , li nhun t mng cao su s khng cn tng trng do din tch khai thc giam
v gi bn cao su giam trong na cui nm 2017 nh cp trn.

BSC d bo, doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu nm 2017 t ln lt l 1,465 t ng (+24.3% yoy)
v 373.4 t ng (+67.2% yoy) v tng ng nm 2018 l 1,501 t ng (+3% yoy) v 406.8 t ng(-
6.3%). Lu , c tnh ca chng ti cha bao gm nhng khoan li nhun t bin t vic n b VSIP
v vic thoi vn NTC nu c thc hin trong nm 2017. Li nhun t vic nhng vn VSIP c t
300 t trong 2017 v 391 t trong 2018. Li nhun t vic thoi vn NTC c tnh vo khoang 250 t
ng cha r thi im thc hin.

DRI MUA Gi mc tiu 15,700 ng/cp, upside 25%.

L c phiu mi ln sn, vi nhng yu t c ban. (1) Quy m ln th 2 ton ngnh v din tch (7,775
hecta) v vn iu l (732 t ng) ch xp sau PHR. (2) Vn cy co tui tr - trung bnh tui khai
thc 5 nm, v nng sut thu hoch cao (1.99 tn/hecta) v s tip tc cai thin mnh trong cc nm ti
theo tui cy. (3) Li th t vic trng cy Lo gip gi nhn cng r v cc yu cu v bao him x hi
thp hn so vi chi ph tng ng Vit Nam. im nhn trong thi gian ti ca DRI l vic cng ty m -
Dakruco thoi vn khi DRI giam s hu t 66% xung cn 51%, d kin hon thnh trong qu 3/2017.
Sau o, doanh nghip d kin s chuyn sn t UPCOM sang HOSE. (4) Gi cao su tng trong nm 2017
so vi cng k 2016 gip cai thin kt qua kinh doanh ca cng ty. BSC d bo DRI c th t 610 t
ng doanh thu (+52% yoy) v 101 t ng LNST (+359% yoy), tng ng EPS 2017 t 1,311 VND/cp
(tr 5% qu khen thng phc li).

M DT2017 E LN2017 EPS P/E F P/B F ROE Dividend Gi ng Gi mc

2017 ca Link
CK (t ) E (t ) 2017 2017 (2017) 2017 tiu
(VND/cp 30/06/20
TRC 444.3 86.9 2319 12 0.58 5% 15% 28,400 33,000 Link
) 17
PHR 1464 373 3753 11 1.54 16% 18% 42,000 45,900 Link
DPR 680 201.5 3523 12 0.87 6.50% 20% 41,000 49,000 Link
DRI 546 101 1311 10 1.08 13% 7% 12,600 15,700 Link
Ngnh Sm lp [Trung lp]
San lng tiu th t giam 6% yoy trong 8T2017
Gi cao su giam 12% qoq nhng vn cao hn 8% so vi cng k nm 2016
KQKD suy giam mnh, tng li nhun sau thu ca 3 doanh nghip nim yt giam 51% yoy.

Thc trng Qu 3/2017

Sn lng tiu th t gim 6% yoy trong 8T2017. Theo thng k ca VAMA, san lng tiu th t 8
thng u nm 2017 t 177,030 chic (-6% yoy) trong o, san lng xe lp rp giam 11% (cn khoang
127,706 chic) v xe nhp khu tng 10%. San lng tiu th xe giam trong nm 2017 mt phn chu tc
ng ca vic thu nhp khu xe nguyn chic t cc nc Asean giam v 0% t ngy 1/1/2018.

Gi cao su trung bnh qu 3 gim tip 12% qoq nhng vn cao hn cng k 2016 l 8%, t 181
USD/tn, nh chng ti cp trong phn trin vng ngnh cao su. Vi thi gian tn kho ko di
khoang 1 qu, chng ti cho rng, bin li nhun gp ca cc doanh nghip san xut sm lp c cai
thin trong 2 qu cui nm so vi 2 qu u nm. Tuy nhin, cho ca nm 2017, d gi bn bnh qun san
phm tng trung bnh khoang 10% vn khng b p c tc tng chi ph u vo ca cc doanh
nghip.

KQKD gim mnh. Kt thc 6 thng u nm 2017, tng doanh thu thun ca 3 doanh nghip sm lp
nim yt tng 10% yoy , tuy nhin, do gi cao su tng trung bnh 50% yoy trong khi gi bn u ra khng
tng tng ng, khin tng li nhun sau thu ca cc doanh nghip trn giam 51% yoy. Ly k 9T2017,
li nhun sau thu ca DRC giam cn 131 t ng, giam 54% yoy.

Bin LN thun t
DTT % yoy Bin LNG HKD LNST % yoy
DRC 1764 8% 14% 7% 105 -47%
CSM 1695 14% 13% 3% 47 -62%
SRC 449 2% 19% 7% 24 -36%
Ngun: BSC research

Quan im u t Trung lp.

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Trung lp i vi nhm c phiu ngnh Sm lp. Gi cao su tng cao s tc
ng tiu cc n KQKD ca cc doanh nghip sm lp trong nm. chiu ngc li, c phiu sm lp
hin c giao dch ti mc P/E trung v l 8.3x, thp hn so vi cc c phiu cng ngnh thuc khu vc
chu -Thi Bnh Dng (emerging market) (14.81x). Tuy nhin, gi cao su tng cao trong nm 2017
cng vi tnh trng cnh tranh cao gy bt li cho hot ng ca cc doanh nghip sm lp.
DRC Theo di.

Ngy 29/09/2017, c phiu DRC c giao dch ti mc gi 23,000 ng/cp, tng ng P/E l 9.93x,
tng i thp so vi P/E ca cc c phiu sm lp trong khu vc chu -Thi Bnh Dng (14.81x). DRC
l doanh nghip u ngnh sm lp, vi nng lc bn hng tt. Cng ty c nhiu khch hng t chc l
cc nh lp rp t trong nc. San lng lp rp t trong nc c k vng tng cng vi nhu cu
tiu th t cao. T l chi tra c tc cao, nm 2016 cng ty tra 45% tin mt v 30% c phiu thng
trong nm 2016. BSC d bo, doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu ca DRC t ln lt l 3,563 t
ng (+6% yoy) v 213 t ng (-46% yoy). Lu , DRC ri k hoch hon thnh nh my Radial giai
on 2 sang qu 4/2018. Nh u t quan tm c phiu DRC cn ch n din bin gi cao su u vo
v gi lp u ra.

CSM Theo di.

Ngy 29/09/2017, c phiu CSM c giao dch ti mc gi 14,800 ng/cp, tng ng P/E FW
8.7x, tng i r so vi P/E ca cc doanh nghip sm lp trong khu vc chu -Thi Bnh Dng. Cng
vi DRC, CSM l mt trong hai nh san xut sm lp ln nht ti th trng Vit Nam c li th trong
phn khc lp xe my v lp t con. K vng tng trng chnh ca cng ty trong nm 2017 n t
vic tiu th lp Radial bn thp xut khu sang th trng Hoa K. Nh chng ti cp trong cc
bo co cp nht doanh nghip v ngnh trc y, i tc Tirex US nhn bao tiu 500,000 lp Radial
bn thp ca CSM. Nm 2017, CSM t mc tiu bn c 274 nghn lp cho i tc Hoa K, mang v
khoang 15-20 t ng LNTT. BSC d bo doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu ca cng ty t ln lt
l 3,575 t ng (+9% yoy) v 197 t ng (-24% yoy). Ti chnh lnh mnh, t l c tc cao (30% tin
mt v 40% c phiu thng trong nm 2016).

M DT2017 E LN2017 EPS 2017 P/E F P/B F ROE Dividend Gi ng Gi mc

Link
CK (t ) E (t ) (VND/cp 2017 2017 (2017) 2017 ca tiu
) 45% tin 30/06/201
DRC 3563 213 1523 15.10 1.82 13% 23000
7 N/A link
30% cp
30% tin
CSM 3575 197 1701 8.70 1.13 17% 14800 N/A link
40% cp
Ngnh Dc phm [Trung lp]
Nhp khu dc phm tng 6.5%, nguyn ph liu dc phm tng 0.8% tnh n 15/09/2017
D thao thng t thay th thng t 11/2016/TT-BYT u tin thuc san xut trn dy chuyn t
tiu chun GMP-EU
KQKD. Tng doanh thu tng 7% yoy, li nhun sau thu tng 17% yoy

Thc trng Qu 3/2017

IMS d bo tng trng ngnh dc Vit Nam t t 8-9% trong giai on 2017-2021. Nm 2016,
ngnh dc tng trng 9%, tng tiu th t 76 nghn t ng, trong o, thuc nhp khu chim ti
63% gi tr tiu th. Tnh n 15/09/2017, tng gi tr nhp khu dc phm Vit Nam t 1,936 t
ng, tng 6.5% yoy, tng gi tr nguyn ph liu dc phm nhp khu t 255 t ng, ch tng 0.8%.
iu ny phn no phan nh tc tng trng dc phm nhp khu so vi san phm trong nc.

D tho thng t thay th thng t 11/2016/TT-BYT v u thu thuc ti c s y t cng lp. Hin d
thao ny ang c B y t ly kin gp t cc doanh nghip. Mt s thay i quan trng trong d
thao bao gm: (1) Phn chia li nhm thuc i vi gi thu generic, (2) xc nh li danh mc thuc
c php d thu vo gi thu thuc bit c gc hoc tng ng iu tr. So vi quy nh ti
thng t 11/2016/TT-BYT, trong nhm 1 v 2 ca gi thu thuc Generic, l nhm c mc cnh tranh
thp hn, gi bn cao hn, ch tnh n thuc c san xut trn dy chuyn t tiu chun GMP-EU,
thuc san xut trn dy chuyn t tiu chun PICs khng cn thuc nhom ny. iu ny s anh hng
n trin vng li nhun ca cc doanh nghip co/ ang d kin dy chuyn san xut thuc t tiu
chun PICs (nh DMC), ng thi, buc cc doanh nghip chuyn hng xy dng cc nh my/dy
chuyn t tiu chun cao hn l EU-GMP. Danh mc thuc c d thu vo gi thuc bit dc gc
hoc tng ng iu tr khng bao gm cc thuc bit dc gc ht hn bao h, c nhiu thuc
Nhom 1 c cp giy ng k lu hnh p ng yu cu iu tr. iu ny cng m ra thm c hi
cnh tranh cho cc doanh nghip c thuc san xut thuc nhm 1 thay th c bit dc gc.

Mt s c phiu dc nim yt mi. Trong nm 2017, nhiu c phiu dc nim yt mi nh VDP,

DVN, DDN, HDP, DHD, DPH, VDC, AMP, DTG, D kin, trong qu 4/2017, CTCP Pymepharco, mt trong
nhng doanh nghip dn u ngnh dc v quy m, hiu qua v cht lng thuc s nim yt mang li
nhiu s chn hn cho nh u t trong nhom c phiu ngnh dc.

KQKD kh quan. Hu ht cc doanh nghip dc khao st ghi nhn doanh thu v li nhun sau thu
tng trng so vi cng k nm 2016. Tng doanh thu thun ca 13 doanh nghip nim yt t 7,053 t
ng, +7% yoy, li nhun sau thu t 897 t ng, tng 17% yoy. Mt s doanh nghip c kt qua kinh
doanh tng mnh l DHT (+54% yoy), IMP (+47% yoy), DMC (+32% yoy), DP3 (+22% yoy), DHG (+17%
yoy) v OPC (+15% yoy), a phn nh cai thin mnh hiu qua hot ng/ tit giam chi ph. Mt s
doanh nghip c hiu sut sinh li cao l DMC (22% bin li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh),
PMC (21%), DHG (19%), TRA (17%) v IMP (15%).
 Bin LN thun
DTT % yoy Bin LNG t HKD LNST % yoy
DHG 1808.1 7% 45% 19% 358.9 17%
TRA 859.3 -16% 56% 17% 109.2 8%
DHT 664.1 19% 15% 5% 27.8 54%
DBD 649.6 0% 37% 14% 75.8 11%
DMC 611.2 3% 40% 22% 106.8 32%
IMP 500.1 17% 43% 15% 59.8 47%
OPC 490.3 29% 44% 12% 43.9 15%
DBT 399.1 47% 22% 2% 8.7 -26%
DCL 368.5 4% 34% 12% 40.8 -1%
LDP 258.6 4% 15% 4% 9.0 -3%
PMC 207.9 5% 42% 21% 35.0 -1%
DP3 168.3 40% 57% 13% 18.3 22%
PPP 67.9 20% 19% 6% 3.3 -22%
Ngun: Bloomberg

Quan im u t Trung lp

Chng ti duy tr khuyn ngh Trung lp vi c phiu Ngnh dc. Gi nhiu c phiu dc tng cao k
t u nm 2017, DHT (+153% ytd), DP3 (+82% ytd), DHG (+ 65% ytd), DMC (+60% ytd), OPC (+41% ytd),
IMP (+23% ytd), PPP (+20% ytd). Nhiu c phiu dc ang c giao dch ti mc P/E cao, nh TRA
(22.16x), IMP (21.92x), DHG (21.39x), DMC (19.08x), DBD (17.93x), DP3 (17.57x), tuy nhin, vn thp hn
nhiu so vi mc trung v ca cc c phiu dc trong khu vc chu -Thi Bnh Dng (31.09x). C
phiu dc c tnh phng th thch hp cho mc ch u t trung v di hn. Nh u t quan tm c
phiu dc nn theo di cc thng tin v ni room, thay i t l s hu ca cc nh u t chin lc
v cc k hoch xy dng nh my mi.

DHG Theo di.

L doanh nghip dn u ngnh dc v quy m, vi tng doanh thu thun t 1,808 t ng, b xa
doanh nghip xp th hai l TRA (859 t ng). ng lc tng trng chnh ca DHG nh y mnh khai
thc, tng cng sut hai nh my mi Betalactam (1 t n v/nm) v Nonbetalactam (4 t n
v/nm), tn cng knh OTC vi mng li phn phi mnh, ph rng khp ca nc. Cng ty t mc
tiu tng trng doanh thu v li nhun trung bnh ln lt l 16%/nm v 11%/nm t nm 2017-
2020.

Vi 24.44% s hu bi Taisho, cu chuyn ni room cho nh u t nc ngoi ca DHG tip tc thu

ht s quan tm ca nh u t. Chng ti lu , vic ni room ny s ch c thng qua sau khi DHG
thay i ngnh ngh kinh doanh (d kin t nm 2018).

IMP Theo di.

Khc vi hu ht doanh nghip dc ni a la chn phn khc gi r, IMP la chn phn khc thuc
cht lng cao, hng n thay th hng nhp khu. im mnh ni bt ca IMP so vi cc cng ty
dc phm nim yt l cng ty s hu 3 dy chuyn san xut khng sinh t tiu chun EU-GMP. Chng
 ti lu , y l mt tiu chun quan trng gip cc san phm ca IMP trng thu thuc vo nhm 1
(nu san phm c php lu hnh ti th trng cc nc tham gia ICH) v nhm 2, l nhng nhm c
gi thu cao hn trong khi o, mc cnh tranh thp hn. Nh phn tch trn, d thao thng t
thay th thng t 11/2016/TT-BYT u tin i vi thuc san xut trn dy chuyn t tiu chun EU-
GMP cng s l mt li th ln cho IMP trong bi canh ca nc ch c 5 doanh nghip c dy chuyn san
xut t tiu chun ny.

DBD Theo di.

Bidiphar l mt trong nhng doanh nghip dn u ngnh dc Vit Nam v cht lng san phm, cng
ngh san xut, danh mc thuc a dng v c tim nng tng trng cao. ng ch , DBD l doanh
nghip san xut thuc ung th duy nht ti Vit Nam v l mt trong hai doanh nghip ni a s hu
cng ngh san xut thuc ng kh. 2 dng san phm ch lc ca DBD l thuc ung th v thuc ng
kh, chim khoang 27% tng doanh thu. Cng sut san xut 2 dng san phm ny tip tc tng nh u
t nh my Bidiphar cng ngh cao. Nhu cu tiu th tng nhanh, c bit trong phn khc thuc ung
th. Tnh trung bnh, mi ngy c khoang 315 trng hp t vong v cn bnh ung th. S ca nhim
bnh mi c d bo tng ln ti 190.000 ngi vo nm 2020. Trong di hn, tim nng tng trng
ca cng ty n t ong gop ca 3 nh my mi, xy dng theo tiu chun PICs hoc EU-GMP.

M DT2017 LN2017 EPS 2017 P/E P/B ROE Gi ng ca Gi mc

Dividend 2016 Link
CK E (t ) E (t ) (VND/cp) 2017 2017 (2017) 29/09/2017 tiu
DHG 4,250 780 5,369 19.84 4.95 27% 35% tin mt 106,500 N/A
IMP 1,260 128 3,282 19.20 1.99 13% 18% tin mt 63,000 N/A
DP3 250 26 3,823 15.64 3.07 18.5% 20% tin mt 59,800 N/A
DBD 1,500 144 2,474 20.17 3.08 18.3% 15% tin mt 49,900 N/A Link
Ngnh Nha [Trung lp]
Nhp khu nguyn liu ht nha tng 13% v san lng

Xut khu san phm nha tng 14% v gi tr

Gi ht nha PVC tng 15% yoy, PP tng 9% yoy, LDPE tng 1% yoy, v HDPE giam 1% yoy
Thay i s hu ca cc c ng ln trong cc doanh nghip nha
Mt s doanh nghip c KQKD kha quan AAA (+71% yoy) DNP (+45% yoy), TPC (+47% yoy).
Trong khi o, TPP (-91% yoy), BMP (-34% yoy), RDP (-32% yoy), VBC (-24% yoy) v DPC (-22%
yoy).

Thc trng Qu 3/2017

Sn xut nha thnh phm tng trng tch cc. Tnh n 15/09/2017, tng khi lng nhp khu
cht do nguyn liu vo Vit Nam t 3.5 triu tn, tng 13% yoy, gi tr nhp khu t 5.1 t USD, tng
21%. iu ny phan nh tc tng trng cao ca ngnh do 80-90% nguyn liu san xut nha ca
Vit Nam phai nhp khu. Trong o, xut khu san phm nha tng trng cao, tnh n 15/09/2017,
tng gi tr xut khu san phm t cht do t 1.7 t USD, tng 14% yoy.

Gi ht nha tng. Tnh n ht thng 9/2017, gi ht nha PVC tng 15% yoy, PP tng 9% yoy, trong
khi o, gi cc loi ht nha PE hu nh khng i, LDPE tng 1% yoy, v HDPE giam 1% yoy. Do thi
gian tn kho ca cc doanh nghip nha thng ko di khoang 1 qu, iu ny s tip tc tc ng tiu
cc n li nhun ca cc doanh nghip san xut ng nha (nguyn liu ch yu l PVC) trong qu cui
nm.

Thay i c cu s hu. Thng 9/2017, BMP chnh thc c UBCK Nh nc chp thun ni room
c ng khi ngoi ln 100%. y l iu kin cc c ng ngoi tng t l s hu ti BMP trong bi
canh cng ty gn kn room (48.57%). Cng trong thng 9/2017, sau 5 nm u t, c ng Thi Lan l
Nawaplastic ng k thoi ton b hn 21 triu c phiu (23.84%), cng thi im, nhiu c ng
ni b ca NTP ng k mua vo lng ln c phiu (hn 4.9 triu c phiu). Theo k hoch, nm 2017,
c ng nh nc l SCIC cng phai thoi vn ti BMP v NTP, t l s hu hin ti ca SCIC ln lt l
29.51% v 37.12%. Do o, c cu s hu trong hai doanh nghip trn d kin tip tc thay i mnh, v
k vng cai thin hiu qua hot ng sau thoi vn, c bit l vi NTP.

KQKD phn ha. Kt thc 6 thng u nm 2017, doanh thu thun ca cc doanh nghip nha nim yt
tng trng 14% yoy t 8,972 t ng, trong khi o, li nhun sau thu giam 9% yoy cn 685 t ng.
Mt s doanh nghip c kt qua kinh doanh kha quan bao gm, AAA (+71% yoy) nh san lng tiu th
tng mnh, DNP (+45% yoy), TPC (+47% yoy). Trong khi o, nhiu doanh nghip c kt qua kinh doanh
st giam mnh bao gm TPP (-91% yoy), BMP (-34% yoy), RDP (-32% yoy), VBC (-24% yoy) v DPC (-22%
yoy) do gi ht nha tng cao, hiu qua kinh doanh giam st.
 Sn phm Bin LN thun
DTT % yoy Bin LNG LNST % yoy
chnh t HKD
BMP ng nha 1737 9% 25% 16% 228 -34%
NTP ng nha 2053 3% 34% 11% 202 3%
ng nha v
DNP 676 -2% 18% 10% 60
nc sch 45%
DPC ng nha 32 -9% 19% 4% 1 -22%
Ca nha,
DAG 824 21% 9% 5% 32
thanh profile 7%
AAA Bao b 1582 68% 14% 10% 106 71%
RDP Bao b 604 4% 10% 3% 22 -32%
TPP Bao b 274 -1% 14% 0% 1 -91%
SPP Bao b 498 30% 11% 1% 6 12%
VBC Bao b 362 5% 11% 4% 12 -24%
TPC Bao b 327 -6% 10% 6% 16 47%
Ngun: Bloomberg

Quan im u t Trung lp

Chng ti duy tr quan im Trung lp i vi nhm c phiu ngnh Nha. KQKD ca cc doanh nghip
san xut ng nha c th b anh hng do cnh tranh cao (HSG, Tn i Thnh gia nhp ngnh), v
gi ht nha PVC tng 15% yoy. C hi c th n t vic SCIC thoi vn BMP v NTP. Nhm c phiu
bao b, trong o co AAA c k vng tip tc duy tr tc tng trng cao trong nm 2017.

NTP MUA Gi mc tiu 83,900 ng/cp upside 17%

L doanh nghip san xut ng nha ln nht ca nc, cng sut thit k ln ti 120.000 tn/nm (tng
ng BMP), cung ng ch yu ti th trng min Bc vi hn 60% th phn. So vi BMP, hiu qua hot
ng ca NTP thp hn nhiu (bin li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh ca NTP l 11% trong khi
ca BMP l 16% trong 6T2017), ch yu do khc bit v chnh sch phn phi cho khch hng. 6T2017,
chi ph cho nh phn phi ca NTP ln ti 236 t ng trong khi LNTT l 232 t ng. Chng ti k vng,
hiu qua san xut kinh ca NTP tng mnh sau khi SCIC thoi vn, c cu li hot ng ca doanh
nghip. Chng ti a ra 2 kch ban d bo li nhun vi NTP. Trng hp 1, cng ty gi nguyn chnh
sch chit khu vi nh phn phi, khi o, li nhun nm 2017 v 2018 c d bo t ln lt l 436
t ng v 460 t ng. Trng hp 2, sau khi SCIC thoi vn li ch ca cng ty v nh phn phi c
cn i hi ha hn, gia s t l chi ph cho nh phn phi/DT gi nguyn trong nm 2017 v giam cn
giam cn 6% trong nm 2018, khi o, li nhun sau thu ca NTP t 609 t ng trong nm 2018, tng
40% yoy, tng ng EPS 2018 l 6,276 ng/cp.

M DT2017 LN2017 EPS 2017 P/B ROE Gi ng ca Gi mc

P/E 2017 Dividend 2016 Link
CK E (t ) E (t ) (VND/cp) 2017 (2017) 29/09/2017 tiu
35% cash div
NTP 4663 442 4621 15.47 3.30 22% 71,500 83,900 Link
20% bonus shares
45% cash div
BMP 3764 460 5614 13.80 2.72 19% 77,500 119,400 Link
80% bonus shares
AAA 2900 200 3468 9.88 2.00 22% 7% cash div 34,250 N/A Link
Ngnh Du kh [Trung lp]
Gi du Brent t mc trung bnh $51.94 trong qu 3, tng 10.5% so vi cng k, thp hn mc
tng mnh 56% ca 1Q2017
Kt qua kinh doanh cc doanh nghip du kh trong 2Q2017 phn ha mnh, nhng hu ht cc
cng ty bt u ghi nhn li nhun.
Duy tr quan im trung lp khuyn ngh u t PVS, nm gi GAS v theo di PVD
Ni tip hi phc t cui qu 2, gi du Brent cui qu 3 v chm mc $57.17, sau mt giai on giam
mnh t mc $54 vo 23/5 v $44.8 ngy 21/6/2017. Gi du Brent t mc trung bnh $51.94 trong qu
3, tng 10.5% so vi cng k, cao hn so vi mc 7.8% ca qu trc. Gi LPG cng co din bin tng
t, tr li mc $500 vo cui thng 9 nhng vn thp hn mc 600$ qu I. Theo o, gi LPG trung bnh
trong Q3 2017 t $441, tng mnh 44.02% so vi cng k.

Din bin gi Brent (USD/barrel) Din bin gi LPG (Butane)

60 800
55 700
50 600
45 500
40 400
35 300
30 200
100
25
0
20

MA 1 year Gi du Brent MA 1 year Gi Butane

Ngy 22/9/2017, OPEC v cc quc gia khai thc du ln nht th gii thng nht gia hn thi gian quyt
nh ct giam san lng n 01/2018. Bn cnh o, ngun cung du vn chu p lc bi cc quc gia
M, Iran, Iraq v Lybia, u gia tng san lng khai thc. Tuy nhin, s tn ph ca cn bo Harvey, Irma
v bt n chnh tr xoay quanh s c lp ca ngi Kurk ti Iraq s gip duy tr gi du trong qu ti.
Do s tn ph ca cc cn bo v chi ph ha vn ngy cng giam ti M, s lng dn khoan du m i
vo hot ng ch cn 750 dn, giam 6 dn so vi qu trc.

Trong 8 thng u nm, Vit Nam khai thc hn 10.49 triu tn du th, trong o, khai thc trong
nc t 9.19 triu tn, nc ngoi l 1.30 triu tn, t 73.8% k hoch t ra cho nm 2017 l 14.2
triu tn du. Tng s lng du th c PVN v cc i tc l ch m du xut bn l 8.81 triu tn
(vi doanh thu t khoang 3.6 t USD), trong o xut khu l 4.98 triu tn (t 2 t USD) v bn cho cc
khch hng trong nc l 3.84 triu tn (t 1.59 t USD). Gi xut khu du th Vit Nam trung bnh
cho ca giai on 8 thng nm 2017 l 402.41 USD/tn.
Kt qu kinh doanh cc doanh nghip du kh trong 2Q2017 phn ha mnh, trong o nhn chung cc
doanh nghip vn chuyn/phn phi kh c kt qua kinh doanh kha quan hn hng li t gi du tng
ln. Cc doanh nghip thng ngun vn tip tc gp kho khn trong bi canh cc d n thm d u t
ang b dng, gin tin . Vi ban cht l doanh nghip khai thc du kh, PVD l doanh nghip duy
nht vn tip tc chu khoan l sau thu, tuy nhin khoan ny giam mnh so vi qu trc l 214 t.
Trong 2Q2017, tng doanh thu cc doanh nghip nim yt gn nh khng i 0.9% yoy v tng li
nhun cng ch tng 1.34% yoy.

Quan im u t Trung lp

Mc d gi du th gii ln li ngng ln hn 50 USD / thng nhng cc nc xut khu du m

OPEC v cc thnh vin khc nh Nga s kh giam thm san lng tip tc tng ca gi du. L do
rng, nu cc nc ny tip tc ct giam san lng du m, th phn m h ang co s b ri vo cc
cng ty du phin ti M. Tnh hnh gi du di hn s khng kha quan hn khi Citigroup Inc d bo
gi du ch vn ng quanh ngng 55 USD / thng. Bn cnh tnh hnh v m th gii, tnh hnh ngnh
du kh trong nc ang phn hoa cao gia cc cng ty pha thng ngun v cc cng ty pha h ngun
ca chui du kh. Nhng cng ty phi h ngun trc thuc tp on xng du Vit Nam c kt qua kinh
doanh n nh v t b anh hng bi gi du, trong o, LNST ca GAS tng 16%, PGS tng 28.1% v PVB
tng 111.8% so vi cng k nm ngoi. Nh o gi cc c phiu ny u tng ln rt tt GAS chm
70,000 VND tng 20%, PGS gi 23,000 VND tng 27.78% so vi gi ong ca ngy 30/6. chiu ngc
li, cc c phiu pha thng ngun ca ngnh du kh u ghi nhn mc LNST giam st v c bit PVD
tip tc ghi nhn thm mt qu l sau thu. iu ny khin PVD ri vo din theo di ca s HSX v
ang tm dng mua k qu.

Quan im u t ngnh du kh ca BSC l trung lp cho qu IV v mua di hn cho cc c phiu pha

thng ngun co c ban tt nh PVS, theo di vi PVD trong khi cc c phiu pha h ngun ang c
giao dch vi mc gi mc tiu v c th nm gi trong trung hn. Nhng c phiu pha thng ngun
cn nhng d n nh C Rng (2018-2020), S T Trng giai on 2 (2018-2020), Sao Vng-i
Nguyt (2019-2023) i vo vn hnh c ngun thu n nh vi bin li nhun cao. Nhng cng ty
pha h ngun ngnh du kh t gi tt v d a tng trng khng cn mu m nh trc, do o
chng ti khuyn ngh nm gi.

DT Q2 2017 LNST Q2 2017

%yoy %yoy
(t ng) (t ng)
GAS 16147.2 2.8% 1894.2 16.0%
PVS 4312.9 -8.3% 367.4 -17.1%
PVD 945.3 -46.7% -65.6 -291.6%
PGS 1214.3 -0.7% 29.6 28.1%
PGD 1687.8 48.3% 49.1 -56.5%
PVC 1078.4 16.4% 27.2 -339.5%
PVG 734.9 23.8% 1.5 -72.1%
PGC 675.9 19.1% 40.2 9.3%
PXS 398.1 -7.6% 13.5 -67.5%
PVB 15.4 1181.1% 6 111.8%
CNG 341.3 47.2% 27.8 -27.0%

GAS Gi mc tiu 72,000 VND/cp Theo di

Doanh thu GAS ph thuc nhiu vo din bin gi du FO, do hu ht chi ph u vo c k c nh

ti ming ging, trong khi 70% san lng u ra c neo theo 46% gi du FO ti thi im bn. Vi
din bin gi du FO rt kha quan cho thi im hin ti, n nh mc 325 USD/mtu, cao hn 44.5%
so vi mc trung bnh ca ca nm 2016, cng vi phn li nhun t bin 1000 t ng- khoan hi t
tin ph vn chuyn cho ng ng Cu Long, BSC c tnh GAS c th t 8,613 t ng li nhun
(+20.1% yoy), tng ng vi EPS 2017 t 4,500 VND/cp. Theo o, GAS ang c giao dch ti mc P/E
forward = 15.3x.

PVS Gi mc tiu 20,500 VND/cp Upside 25.77%

Kt qua kinh doanh ca PVS giam v doanh thu 7,684 t ng (-16%) nhng LNST li tng ln 689 t
ng (+22.6%). Mang doanh thu giam mnh nht trong na u nm nay l Xy lp cng trnh bin vi
mc giam 35% v s thc s phc hi t nm 2018. Ngoi ra, ngun thu t vic vn hnh v bao tr s l
ngun thu dch v n nh sau ny ca cng ty. BSC duy tr quan im PVS c th ghi nhn 18,165 t
ng doanh thu (-2% yoy) v 833.9 t ng LNST (-8% yoy), tng ng vi EPS t 1,876/cp. Sang
nm 2018 chng ti k vng EPS s tng mnh ln 2,200 VND/cp, nh ong gop hn 4,000 t t d n
C Rng . Trong thi gian ti, PVS d kin nhn c khoang 40 triu USD t tin bi thng lin
quan n vic tu FPSO Lam Sn kt thc sm hp ng tng thit hi lin quan n vic kt thc
sm hp ng ny l hn 200 triu USD. PVS s l s la chn tt cho di hn vi cc d n C Rng
(2018-2020), S T Trng giai on 2 (2018-2020), Sao Vng-i Nguyt (2019-2023) mang li ngun thu
ln v mang xy lp truyn thng vi doanh thu ln v bin li nhun cao.

PVD Theo di

Sau mt thi gian kh di giam s lng gin khoan cho thu, PVD ghi nhn l rng trong 6T2017 ln
ti -252 t ng. Tuy nhin, kt qua qu 2 cho thy s phc hi v doanh thu v cng l du hiu
rng cng ty vng y. Ngoi k vng v d n C Rng s gip PVD tng s lng dn khoan
cho thu nh th trng trong nc, th trng du m nc ngoi ang cho thy s hi phc cng s
gip PVD c nhiu hp ng mi hn. PVD k hp ng cho thu gin khoan PV DRILLING I ti Block
G10/48 vnh Thi Lan vi i tc KrisEnergy vi tng tr gi 6 triu USD tng ng 136 t ng v khi
ng vo thng 10. y l hp ng th 2 trong nm ca PVD cho i tc nc ngoi. Mc d k vng
rng nm 2018 s c chuyn bin tch cc r rt hn vi li nhun ca PVD nhng BSC vn khuyn ngh
nh u t theo di c phiu ny v kha nng c phiu tng gi sm do nh u t mun on u kt
qua kinh doanh di hn v cc tin hp ng nc ngoi mi hon ton c th xay ra.

Gi ti
LNST EPS ROE Dividend Gi mc
M CK DT 2017 P/E FW P/B ngy
2017E 2017 2017 2017 tiu
30/9/2017
GAS 72,155 8,613 4,500 15.0 3.0 19.7% 17% tin 69,100 74,047
PVS 18,165 833.7 1,876 9.6x 0.7x 7.6% 7% tin 16,300 20,500
Ngnh Thp [Trung lp]
Gi qung st bt u bt tng t cui thng 6/2017 v ca Q3 nhng hin ang quay u giam
Gi thp trong nc iu chnh tng trn 20% trong Q3 2017
KQKD ca nhm doanh nghip Thp c d bo kha quan

Thc trng Q3/2017

Gi qung st ang c s iu chnh gim t cui thng 8/2017. Nh nhn nh ca chng ti trong
Bo co Trin vng ngnh Q3/2017, s phc hi ca gi qung c th khng bn vng v hin ti trong
Q3 gi qung to nh 79.93 USD/tn ngy 21/08/2017 v ang tip tc giam xung cn 62.05 USD/tn
ngy 29/09/2017 (-29%). Nguyn nhn ca vic tng gi ch yu do Trung Quc ch ng ct giam san
lng thp thnh phm v tnh hnh tng trng kinh t n nh vi s kin i hi ang din ra vo
thng 10/2017. Tuy nhin ri ro v nhu cu tiu th vn ang hin hu khi Bc Kinh c th s cho dng
xy dng cc cng trnh cng cng ln trong ma ng ny nhm cai thin cht lng khng kh. Bn
cnh o, mt s chuyn gia khng nh Trung Quc hin khng thiu tn kho qung st v thp thnh
phm do lng tn kho qung st ti cc cang ang l 131.8 triu tn, cao hn mc 80 triu tn ca
cng k nm 2016.

Ngun cung qung st c d bo s tip tc tng khi n kt thc gio ma. Australia cng s tng
xut khu qung st ln mc 885 triu tn (nm ti chnh kt thc thng 6/2018) +4%yoy. Ngun cung
t Brazil cng s tng khoang 5%yoy. Do o, mc d thi gian qua gi qung c h tr t lc cu tt
t pha Trung Quc nhng ngun cung qung tip tc tng s to p lc giam gi ln gi qung.

Gi qung 62% Fe (USD/tn)

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
10/3/2012

12/3/2012

10/3/2013

12/3/2013

10/3/2014

12/3/2014

10/3/2015

12/3/2015

10/3/2016

12/3/2016
2/3/2013

4/3/2013

6/3/2013

8/3/2013

2/3/2014

4/3/2014

6/3/2014

8/3/2014

2/3/2015

4/3/2015

6/3/2015

8/3/2015

2/3/2016

4/3/2016

6/3/2016

8/3/2016

2/3/2017

4/3/2017

6/3/2017

8/3/2017

Ngun: Bloomberg, BSC Research

Cng vi s giam gi ca qung st, gi thp ni a Trung Quc cng ang co du hiu iu chnh sau
giai on tng lin tc. Ngy 29/09/2017, gi 1 tn thp thanh ti Trung Quc l 4,055 CNY, tng
ng khoang 14 triu ng/tn, cao hn so vi mc gi bn hin ti ca HPG l 12,8 triu ng/tn
thp thanh vn v 13 triu ng/tn thp cun xy dng.

China Domestic Steel Rebar 25mm Spot average price China Domestic HRC spot average price ( CNY/ton)
(CNY/ton)
5000
5000 4500
4500 4000
4000
3500
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000 2000
1500 1500
1000 1000
500 500
0 0
10/8/2012 10/8/2013 10/8/2014 10/8/2015 10/8/2016 10/8/2012 10/8/2013 10/8/2014 10/8/2015 10/8/2016

Ngun: Bloomberg, BSC Research

KQKD s lc quan trong Q3 2017 do gi qung st theo xu hng tng. Nhn li KQKD 6 thng u nm
2017, nhn chung bin LNG ca nhm doanh nghip thp giam so vi cng k nm 2016 do anh hng
tiu cc t din bin gi qung giam trong Qu 2. Tuy nhin, gi thp c du hiu tng tr li t cui
thng 6/2017, do o dn ti gi thp ni a cng c iu chnh tng, BSC d bo KQKD ca cc
doanh nghip Thp s tng i lc quan trong Q3 2017.

DTT 6T2017 LN t HKD 6T2017 Bin LN HKD

M CP yoy yoy
(01/01 30/06) (01/01 30/06) 6T2017 6T2016
HPG 20,876,836,829,643 37.43% 4,036,897,424,704 13.06% 19.34% 23.50%
HSG 13,443,649,715,047 49.73% 854,968,786,096 -24.00% 6.36% 12.53%
NKG 5,486,682,606,583 38.09% 372,369,835,721 4.69% 6.79% 8.95%
Ngun: BCTC doanh nghip

Quan im u t

Do din bin gi qung vn theo giam v tnh hnh xy dng ang co xu hng chng li, anh hng
t vic tng gi NVL, BSC nh gi Trung lp vi ngnh Thp trong Q4. Vi cc doanh nghip Thp ln,
c san lng tiu th tng trng tt nh HPG, HSG, NKG, BSC vn duy tr khuyn ngh Mua Trung v
Di hn.

HPG Mua Gi mc tiu VND 47,133

San lng tiu th thp ca HPG tip tc t mc cao trong 9T2017 vi thp xy dng t 1.61 triu tn
(+32.53%yoy) v ng thp t 431,000 tn (+27.14%yoy). ng ch din bin gi thp bn trong nc
iu chnh tng cng vi din bin gi qung st, ghi nhn gi thp HPG ti cui thng 6/2017 giao
ng khoang 10.5 triu ng/tn, hin ti gi t 12.8 triu ng/tn vi thp thanh vn v 13 triu
ng/tn vi thp cun, tng 22% trong Q3/2017. Chng ti d bo KQKD Q3 ca HPG s rt lc quan,
LNST t khoang 2,100 t ng (+30.74%yoy).
 HSG Mua Gi mc tiu VND 35,803

Trong 9 thng nin ti chnh 2016 2017, tng san lng thnh phm tiu th ca HSG t 1.17 triu
tn (+32%yoy) v t 78% k hoch nm. D kin n ht nm 2017, tng cng sut cn ngui ca HSG
s t 1.7 triu tn v cng sut m t 2.2 triu tn.

Nh chng ti cp trong BC trin vng ngnh Q3, KQKD Qu 2 ca HSG khng kha quan do anh
hng ca vic tch tr hng tn kho trong bi canh gi HRC giam. Chng ti d bo DTT nm 2017 ca
HSG t 26,410 t ng, LNST 1,671 t ng (cha tnh vic ghi nhn li nhun t thoi vn cang Quc
t Hoa Sen Gemandept, t l s hu ca HSG l 45%, gi tr s sch ti 30/06/2017 l 18.26 t ng,
trong o trch lp d phng 33.69 t ng).

NKG Mua Gi mc tiu VND 43,882

Tng San lng tiu th trong 6T2017 l 382,061 tn (+8%yoy). Trong o san lng xut khu l 152,030
tn (+22%yoy) cng k 2016 l 124,849 tn. T trng cc th trng xut khu (theo san lng) ch yu
l Indonesia 37% - M 17% - Malaysia 8% (cng k 2016 ln lt l 53% - 11% - 7%), bn cnh o NKG
ang y mnh xut khu qua chu u, c v mt s th trng khc ang iu tra CBPG vi thp Trung
Quc.

Nng lc san sut c cai thin ng k nh d n NK3, d kin sau khi hon thnh, tng cng sut
cn ngui ca NKG s t 1 triu tn/nm v cng sut m l 1.2 triu tn/nm. BSC c tnh DT 2017
t 12,093 t ng, LNST 2017 t 711 t ng.

Gi ng
LNST EPS PB ROE Gi mc
M DT 2017 PE 2017 Div 2017 ca
2017 2017 2017 2017 tiu
29/09/2017
HPG 46,867 7,795 5,602 6.94 2.05 29.35% N/A 38,900 46,945
HSG 26,410 1,671 4,774 5.99 1.84 30.65% N/A 28,600 35,803
NKG 12,093 711 6,772 4.89 1.79 36.64% N/A 35,250 43,882
Ngnh Xi mng [Trung lp]
Th trng xi mng ni a cnh tranh khc lit do chnh sch thu lm giam xut khu
D thao Lut sa i v thu GTGT s gip cai thin san lng tiu th xi mng
KQKD ca cc doanh nghip xi mng vn km lc quan

Thc trng Q3/2017

Th trng tiu th xi mng ni a cnh tranh khc lit. Nhn chung tnh trng d tha xi mng s tip
tc ko di, theo c tnh ca Hip hi Xi mng Vit Nam, tng cng sut ngnh xi mng l hn 86 triu
tn (nm 2017, nh my xi mng Long Sn cng sut 5 triu tn xi mng/nm v giai on 2 nh my xi
mng Xun Thnh H Nam cng sut 4.5 triu tn xi mng/nm bt u i vo hot ng), trong khi
o kha nng tiu th ni a ch khoang 60 triu tn. HH xi mng cng d bo tiu th xi mng trong
nc nm 2020 vo khoang 82 triu tn, v d tha t 36 47 triu tn xi mng.

Trong 9T2017, theo V VLXD (B Xy dng), tng san lng tiu th xi mng t 59.27 triu tn xi mng
(+6%yoy). Trong o, tiu th ni a t khoang 45.28 triu tn (+4%yoy) v xut khu t khoang 13.99
triu tn. Theo khao st thc t ti mt s doanh nghip xi mng, chng ti nhn thy tnh hnh tiu th
ang km hn, tc tng trng san lng tiu th mc m hoc tng nh so vi cng k 2016.

Xut khu xi mng tip tc b nh hng bi quy nh v Thu: Nm 2016 Chnh ph ban hnh mt s
quy nh lin quan n ngnh xi mng bao gm: Ngh nh s 100/2016/N-CP (xut khu hng ha
c ch bin t ti nguyn, khong san khng c khu tr thu gi tr gia tng u vo) v Ngh
nh s 122/2016/N-CP (cc vt t, nguyn liu, bn thnh phm c gi tr ti nguyn khong san cng
vi chi ph nng lng chim t 51% gi thnh san phm tr ln s chu thu xut khu 5%). Hai chnh
sch ny anh hng tiu cc n san lng xi mng xut khu, dn n tng ngun cung v cnh
tranh trong nc.

Hin ti, B Ti chnh ang xy dng D n Lut sa i v thu GTGT trong o co vic b quy nh
khng c hon thu GTGT vi san phm xut khu c ch bin t ti nguyn khong san cng vi
chi ph nng lng chim t 51% gi thnh san phm tr ln. Nu quy nh c thc hin s gip cai
thin tnh hnh cnh tranh khc lit ca th trng xi mng ni a.

Cp nht KQKD 6T2017. Nhn chung, KQKD ca cc doanh nghip xi mng u km kha quan trong na
u nm 2017, phan nh mc cnh tranh mnh ca th trng ni a. HT1 c hng li th th
trng min Nam nhng do tng gia cng ngoi nn bin LNG cng giam mnh t 20.2% v 16.97%.

Bin Li nhun
Doanh thu thun EBITDA
gp
1H2017 1H2016 yoy 1H17 1H16 1H2017 1H2016 yoy
HT1 4,048.58 3,928.00 3.07% 16.97% 20.20% 877.06 948.27 -7.51%
BCC 1,909.42 2,199.51 -13.19% 11.03% 18.83% 169.76 356.36 -52.36%
BTS 1,579.49 1,639.66 -3.67% 14.76% 17.27% 258.71 287.78 -10.10%
Quan im u t Trung lp

Chng ti duy tr khuyn ngh Trung lp vi ngnh Xi mng trong Q4/2017 do tnh hnh cnh tranh khc
lit vn cha c cai thin. Bn cnh o, vic c cu li b my nhn s ca Vicem cng s anh hng
tng i n hot ng chung ca nhm doanh nghip xi mng. Chng ti cng lu Q4 l ma tiu
th xi mng chnh trong nm, do o p lc cnh tranh c th giam i cht so vi Q3.

HT1 Theo di

KQKD Q3 d kin s khng kha quan do bin LNG tip tc suy giam t vic tng san lng gia cng t xi
mng H Long nhm chim lnh th trng. San lng tiu th trong Q3 2017 ca HT1 giam khoang 2%
so vi cng k 2016, ly k 9T2017 san lng tng 5%yoy. BSC lu , ti 30/09/2017, d n EUR ca HT1
l 43 triu EUR, c l chnh lch t gi cha thc hin trong Q3 ca HT1 l 38.77 t ng (EUR tng
3.46% trong Q3).

BCC Theo di

Do tnh hnh tiu th gp nhiu kho khn, cnh tranh cao ti khu vc min Trung nn san lng tiu th
trong Q3 ca BCC tip tc km kha quan. V d n EUR, trong Q3 BCC hon thnh tra n EUR, hin
ti doanh nghip khng chu ri ro bin ng t gi.

LNST ROE Gi ng ca Gi mc
M DT 2017 EPS 2017 PE 2017 PB 2017 Div
2017 2017 29/09/2017 tiu
HT1 8,649 492 1,288 11.41 0.99 8.65% N/A 14,700 17,540
BCC 4,066 130 1,065 8.15 0.46 6.29% N/A 8,680 11,606
BTS 3,348 108 808 6.81 0.45 7.36% N/A 5,500 8,976
Ngun: BSC d bo
Ngnh Gch men [Trung lp]
Kt qua kinh doanh 1H2017 ca cc doanh nghip gch men tip tc duy tr mc tng trng
kh mc d c s phn ha kh r rt
K vng tip tc tng trng mnh vo Q4/2017
Kt qu kinh doanh LNST 1H2017 ca cc doanh nghip gch men tip tc duy tr mc tng trng
kh mc d c s phn ha kh r rt. Kt qua kinh doanh cc doanh nghip ngnh gch men c s
phn ha kh r rt khi cc doanh nghip c cht lng san phm cng nh h thng phn phi tt
(CVT, VIT, VHL, VGC) tip tc duy tr mc tng trng kh nh vo anh hng tch cc t ngnh bt
ng san. Tng doanh thu ca ngnh gch men trong Q1/2017 t 7,088 t ng (+7.1% yoy). LNST t
236.8 t ng (+27.3% yoy) ch yu nh vo ong gop tch cc ca VGC, CVT.

DT DT LNST LNST
M % tng/gim % tng/gim P/E P/B
1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2016 1Q2017
CVT 432 492 14% 60 77 29% 8,4 3,5
CYC 113 129.1 14.2% 1.9 (-0.7) -137% 10.6 0,3
TCR 793 590 -26% 24 (36) -250% n/a 0,3
TTC 184 160 -13% 13 10 -26% 6,3 1,1
VHL 872 1.010 16% 57 68 18% 8,9 2,0
VIT 389 418 7% 19 23 24% 6,3 1,7
VGC 3.833 4.290 11.9% 259 411 59% 12,3 1,8
Ngun: BSC Research

Quan im u t

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Trung lp vi ngnh gch men.Thi im Q4 thng l qu c KQKD kha quan
nh vo nhu cu hon thin cc d n bt ng san kp tin bn giao cho khch hng. BSC k vng
kt qua mt s DN c hot ng kinh doanh hiu qua nh CVT, VGC s tip tc kha quan. Chng ti tip
tc khuyn ngh theo di i vi cc m VIT v MUA trong trung v di hn vi m CVT, VGC. Hin ti
cc c phiu ngnh gch p lt ang giao dch mc P/E trung v l 8.8 v P/B trung v l 1.5.

CVT MUA Gi mc tiu 58,000 ng/cp. Doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu ca CVT trong 9
thng u nm tip tc duy tr mc tng trng kha quan, ln lt t 905 t ng (+16% yoy) v 128 t
ng (+17% yoy) nh vo nh my CMC2 i vo hot ng n nh gip san lng cai thin (+12%
yoy). BSC cho rng CVT l doanh nghip co c ban tt, chin lc la chn phn khc hp l (phn khc
trung v cao cp) v c h thng i l bn hng c hiu qua cao, v vic u t m rng nh my CMC
giai on trong nm 2017 s gp phn thc y tng trng doanh thu v li nhun trong nm 2018.
D kin nh my gch granit thm mui tan s bt u chy th thng 11 v bt u hot ng n nh
t Q1/2018. BSC k vng kt qua kinh doanh CVT s tip tc duy tr tng trng kha quan trong nm
2018. CVT d bo doanh thu nm 2017 c t 1,305 t ng (+9.7% yoy), LNST t 177 t ng (+16%
yoy), EPS forward 2017 = 6,300 VND.
VGC NM GI - Gi mc tiu 23,200 ng/cp

C phiu VGC tng gi 29.5% so vi gi ti ngy khuyn ngh mua trong bo co ca chng ti (link
bo co). VGC l c phiu u ngnh VLXD ca chng ti v ang bc vo thi k ti c cu mnh
nng cao hiu qua hot ng,v cc ch s nh gi vn ang hp dn so vi bnh qun ngnh. Tnh hnh
kinh doanh 6 thng tng trng mnh t kt qua kha quan. Doanh thu thun v LNST ln lt trong
1H2017 t 4,289 t ng (+12.1% yoy) v 411.1 t ng (+58.6% yoy) tng ng hon thnh 53% v
60.9% k hoch kinh doanh ca VGC. Li nhun gp 1H17 t 1,059 t ng (+12% yoy), bin li nhun
gp tip tc c VGC duy tr tng ng so vi cng k nm ngoi t 24.5%. Tuy nhin, bin li
nhun rng c cai thin ng k nh vo (1) Doanh thu ti chnh rng cai thin r nt (2) T l chi ph
bn hng v quan l doanh nghip giam t mc 13.5% trong 1H16 xung cn 11.3% trong 1H17 nh
VGC kim sot chi ph tt hn. D kin B Xy dng s tip tc thoi vn ti VGC, t l d kin 20%
tng ng gn 90 triu cp. Hin ti ang cht phng n c th, thi gian d kin l u nm 2018.
BSC d bo VGC s hon thnh vt k hoch kinh doanh t ra vi doanh thu v LNST ln lt t
8,738 t ng (+8.17% yoy) v 827 t ng (+69.4% yoy). EPS FW 2017 dnh cho c ng cng ty m d
kin t 1,576 ng (vi gia nh tr qu khen thng phc li tng ng nm 2016 l 35 t).

ROE Gi ng
DT LNST P/B Gi mc
M EPS 16/17 PE F 2017 Dividend 2017 ca
2017 2017 F2017 tiu
30/09/2016
CVT 1,305 177 6,300 8.1 3.36 30% - 35% 46.2% 50,900 56,700
TTC 348.2 20 3,367 5.5 1.1 15% tin mt 18.2% 18,500 N/A
VHL 1,971.8 166.9 6,676 7.1 1.9 20% tin mt 23.8% 47,100 N/A
VIT 1,164 70 3,589 6.12 1.7 15% tin mt 28.6% 22,000 28,700
VGC 8,738 827 1,576 14.5 1.57 9% tin mt 14.9% 22,800 23,200
TLT 515 45 6,438 2.8 3,0 N/A N/A 17,800 N/A
Ngnh Dt may [Trung lp]
Xut khu dt may 8T2017 t 16,86 t USD (+8,2% YoY), tc c phn chm li so vi qu I.
Gi bng th gii phc hi nh cui thng 8 nhng sau o li giam v mc tng ng cng k
2016.
Kt qua kinh doanh ca phn ln cc doanh nghip kh tch cc.
Chng ti vn duy tr quan im Trung lp i vi c phiu ngnh Dt may.

Cp nht Q3/2017

Xut khu dt may 8T2017 khi sc nh tnh hnh n hng kh quan ngay t nhng qu u nm.
Kim ngch xut khu ly k 8 thng u nm 2017 t 16,86 t USD (+8,2% YoY). Tc tng trng
xut khu c phn giam tc trong qu III sau khi tng mnh 11,3% YoY trong 6T2017 nhng bnh qun
vn cao hn so vi cc quc gia i th nh Trung Quc (-5%), n (+5%). Mc d nhp khu hng dt
may ca cc quc gia i tc ch yu ca Vit Nam tng chng li, vi Hoa K (+2%), EU (+1%), Nht Ban
(-5%), Hn Quc (6%) nhng xut khu ca Vit Nam vo cc th trng ny vn tng trng kh: Hoa K
t 8,16 t (+7,3% YoY), Nht Ban (+5% YoY), c bit xut khu hng dt may sang Hn Quc tng
trng 12,6% YoY.

Gi bng th gii phc hi nh cui thng 8 Gi bng th gii

nhng sau li gim v mc tng ng 85
cents/pound
cng k 2016. Gi bng th gii sau khi lp
80
nh trong thng 5 giam mnh v dao ng
75
quanh mc 65-70 cents/pound trc khi phc
hi vo thng 8 do nhu cu nhp khu n t 70
cc quc gia chu gia tng trong khi lng 65
tn kho giam dn. Na cui thng 9, gi bng
60
th gii li c s iu chnh nh, giao dch ti
mc 67 cents/pound.

Ngun: Bloomberg, BSC Research

Kt qu kinh doanh ca phn ln cc doanh nghip dt may nim yt 6T2017 kh tch cc, vi tng
doanh thu thun ca 9 DN ln l 18.526 t (+10% YoY), cao hn so vi tc tng trng trong qu I.
Tng trng doanh thu nhanh nht thuc v STK (+38% YoY) nh cng sut c m rng thm 27,7%
t 60.000 tn/nm, chnh sch xoay trc sang th trng ni a v cc nc ng bc u t
c nhng kt qua kha quan. Nu xt v li nhun, TCM vn tip tc l doanh nghip ghi nhn tc
tng trng n tng nht (+136% YoY) nh chuyn dch mt phn t mang si sang mang vai dt c
bin gp cao hn v hiu qua hot ng ca nh my Vnh Long gia tng gip b p li nhng thit hi
do s st giam n hng t i tc Eland. Tuy nhin, kt qua kinh doanh ti mt s doanh nghip khc
li khng c kha quan, in hnh nh EVE (DTT -1% YoY, LNST -45% YoY) hay PPH (DTT -9% YoY, LNST -
38% YoY).
 DTT EBIT LNST Bin LNG Bin LNG
6T2017 % YoY % YoY % YoY
t VND t VND t VND 1H2017 1H2016
VGT 8,280 16% 169 -1% 309 2% 10% 12%
VGG 3,719 7% 135 -6% 131 7% 10% 10%
TCM 1,547 2% 132 109% 118 136% 16% 12%
PPH 1,392 -9% 38 -65% 137 -38% 12% 15%
TNG 999 17% 86 23% 42 4% 18% 18%
STK 918 38% 65 92% 49 54% 11% 10%
GMC 710 2% 43 -26% 44 -12% 14% 16%
FTM 587 -3% 40 66% 18 0% 9% 6%
EVE 374 -1% 24 -50% 23 -45% 33% 35%
Tng 18,526 10% 731 2% 872 -1%
Ngun: BCTC, BSC Research

Quan im u t

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Trung lp i vi trin vng ngnh dt may trong qu cui nm 2017 da
trn cc yu t: (1) tnh hnh n hng dt may xut khu trong nhng qu u nm kha quan, kim
ngch xut khu c cai thin ng k; tuy nhin mt s th trng xut khu ch lc ang gp nhng
bt n; (2) Xu hng n hng dch chuyn sang mt s quc gia ln cn nh Indonesia, Banglades,
Myanmarnh chi ph nhn cng r, c nhiu u i thu thu ht u t; (3) chi ph nhn cng gia tng
theo nhng iu chnh v chnh sch bao him v tin lng; (4) mt s c phiu dt may u ngnh
c mc tng gi kh k t u nm. Thm na, theo i din ca Tp on Dt may Vit Nam, tng
trng kim ngch xut khu na u nm tng i kha quan nhng cha bn vng khi c h tr
nhiu bi ng thi tng li sut ca Fed v chnh sch bao h mu dch ca M. Cng chung quan im,
B Cng Thng cng a ra d bo tng trng xut khu ca ngnh s ch xoay quanh 8-9% trong
nm 2017, t trn 30 t USD. Tuy nhin BSC vn khuyn ngh mua i vi mt s c phiu dt may c
tim nng tng trng tt v ang c nh gi tng i hp dn.

TNG- Gi mc tiu: 18.538 VND/CP _ Upside: 39%

TNG l doanh nghip may c tc tng trng doanh thu cao nht trong s cc doanh nghip nim yt
(+17% YoY) nh tnh hnh n hng xut khu kha quan. Trong nm 2017, TNG ch ng ct giam
mt s n hng nh l thu ht thm n hng t hai i tc ln l Decathlon (45 triu USD, +170%
YoY) v The Childrens Place (20 triu USD, +240% YoY), ng thi cng ty k c hp ng u tin
vi Levis co gi tr 400.000 USD, d kin s xut hng trong thng 10,11. Ngoi ra, chui h thng bn l
ca TNG cng t c kt qua kh kha quan trong 8T2017 vi DTT 68 t ng (so vi s thc hin 2016
l 78 t ng) v d kin s ha vn trong nm nay.

Tnh n ht thng 8/2017, doanh thu t 1.635 t (+25,7% YoY), tng ng hon thnh 74,3% k
hoch. BSC d bo DTT2017 ca TNG t 2.553 t ng (+35% YoY) nh vo tnh hnh n hng kha
quan, LNST 2017 c t 111 t ng (+37% YoY), tng ng vi EPS=2,567 ng/CP.
VGG- Gi mc tiu: 60.204 VND/CP_Upside: 11,7%

VGG l doanh nghip dt may c quy m vn hoa ng th 2 trn sn chng khon (sau VGT), s hu
nhiu li th trong kinh doanh. Phn ln doanh thu ca VGG n t hot ng xut khu vi cc n
hng n t Nht Ban (32%), M (22%) v EU (18%), ch yu l hp ng gia cng theo hnh thc FOB
(75% doanh thu- so vi trung bnh ngnh l 15%), cn li l ODM nn c bin gp tng i tt. Bn
cnh o, VGG cn c bit n l mt doanh nghip may mc uy tn ti th trng ni a nh s hu
thng hiu thi trang cng s Vit Tin. Nh vy, cng ty c th linh hot hn trong chin lc kinh
doanh khi xut khu dt may gp kho khn.

Na u nm 2017, cng ty ghi nhn doanh thu 3.719 t ng (+7% YoY, hon thnh 48% k hoch), li
nhun t 131 t ng (+7% YoY, tng ng 38% k hoch). BSC k vng tnh hnh n hng xut khu
kha quan hn cng vi tng trng th trng ni a trong nhng thng cui nm s gip cng ty
hon thnh k hoch. Chng ti d bo DTT2017 ca VGG t 8.113 t ng (+7,8% YoY), LNST dnh cho
c ng cng ty m 380 t, tng ng vi EPS = 8.460 ng/CP, P/E forward = 6,4x.

Gi ng ca Gi mc
M DTT 2017F LN 2017F EPS 2017F P/E P/B ROE
29/09/2017 tiu
CK (t VND) (t VND) (VND) 2017F 2017F 2017F
(VND) (VND)
VGT 15,640 310 620 18.4 0.9 4% 11,400 13,619
VGG 8,113 380 8,460 6.4 1.4 24% 53,900 60,204
TCM 3,315 182 3,324 8.1 1.4 23% 27,000 32,000
TNG 2,553 111 2,567 5.9 1.05 18% 15,200 18,538
Ngun: BSC Research
 Ngnh Bo him phi nhn th [Trung Lp]
Ph bao him gc tng trng kha quan trong 5T2017. Hu ht cc mang bn l u tng.
T l bi thng gc t 33.67%, cao hn so vi 32.21% ca cng k
Kt qua kinh doanh 1H2017 ca cc doanh nghip nim yt kha quan vi doanh thu v LNTT
tng trung bnh ln lt 8% v 15%.
Trin vng Q4/2017 trung lp do d bo mt bng li sut giam nh.

Thc trng ngnh bo him phi nhn th 5 thng u nm 2017

Th trng bo him phi nhn th tng trng 5 thng u nm 2017 tip tc duy tr tng trng kh
quan. Theo s liu chnh thc t Cc quan l gim st bao him, ton ngnh t 22,266 t ng ph bao
him gc (+31.1%yoy). Cho tng mang san phm, ngoi tr mang bao him ti san & thit hi giam 5%,
tt ca cc mang khc u gi c mc tng trng cao nh 13% cho xe c gii, 23% cho sc khe, 8%
cho chy n v 3% cho hng ha vn chuyn.

Tng s tin bi thng 5 thng u nm 2017 c hip hi c vo khong 5,319 t ng, tng
ng vi t l bi thng thc l 33.67%, cao hn so vi cng k nm ngoi l 32,21%%, nhng thp hn
ng k so vi trung bnh giai on 2005-2016 l 37%.

Kt qu kinh doanh 1H2017 kh quan, vi tng doanh thu tng trng 8% v li nhun trc thu tng
15%. H s kt hp t mc trung bnh 98.9%, cao hn 1.6% so vi cng k, cho thy s gia tng chi ph
trong hot ng cc doanh nghip. T sut u t 6T.2017 t mc trung bnh 3%, n nh so vi mc
trung bnh 3% cng k 2016..

1H 2017 (T ng) BVH (*) PVI VNR BMI PTI PGI BIC
Doanh thu ph gc 3622 3547 849 1620 1496 1210 912
% yoy 22,4% 0,2% -4,2% 16,1% 1,8% 2,3% 11,7%
% Bi thng (1) 55% 50% 48% 47% 54% 58% 47%
Tng/giam so vi cng 1% -1% -4% 4% 10% 8% 7%
k
H s kt hp (2) 100,3% 97,0% 93,8% 99,9% 101,5% 100,0% 99,9%
Tng/giam so vi 2016 4,2% 3,0% 0,8% -1,1% 1,3% 2,0% 0,6%
Hot ng u t
S tin u t 6406 7457 3212 2387 3213 2100 3148
% yoy 2,9% -7,5% 3,5% -2,6% 10,3% 13,0% 13,2%
T sut u t 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 5% 3%
LNTT 1H2017 195 323 144 110 59 97 92
% yoy -3% 67% 9% 16% -37% 21% -2%
1
T l bi thng c tnh bng tng chi bi thng ( bao gm d phng) / doanh thu ph bo him thun
2
H s kt hp c BSC tnh = (tng chi ph kinh doanh bo him + chi ph qun l doanh nghip)/ DTT t
H bo him
Quan im u t Trung lp

C phiu ngnh bao him ang c giao dch mc P/E trung v l 14.39x v P/B trung v l 1.37x, kh
cao so vi khu vc. BSC khuyn ngh Trung lp i vi ngnh Bao him, do mt bng li sut tip tc xu
hng giam nh. Nguyn nhn l do lm pht giam lin tc trong 6 thng u nm, khin NHNN quyt
nh giam li sut chnh sch nhm thc y tn dng, khin li sut thi th trng giam. Tuy nhin, vic
tng trng tn dng cao hn ng k so vi tng trng huy ng trong thi gian gn y li l nhn t
thc y tng li sut. Hai lc y tri chiu ny khin cho li sut giam nh trong nhng thng cui
nm.

D bo mt s ch bo kinh t v m ca Vit Nam nm 2017

Ch tiu cui k 2016 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017

Lm pht cui k (%yoy) 4,74 4,65 2,54 2,9 2,1
Tng trng cung tin (YTD, %) 17,9 3,52 6,4 10,4 15,5

Tng trng tn dng (YTD, %) 18,7 4,06 8,00 11,5 18,0

Li sut huy ng bnh qun 3 5,0 5,1 5,1 4,8 4,8
thng (%)
Li sut huy ng bnh qun k hn 6,8 6,75 6,5 6,5
12 thng (%)
Ngun: MarketIntello

PVI gi mc tiu 38,000 upside 13.5%

Tnh n cui thng 6/2017, th phn ca PVI giam xung mc 17%. Hot ng kinh doanh bao him
tip tc gp kho khn. Ngnh du kh v hng hai chim 50% tng doanh thu ph ca PVI vn cha co
din bin tch cc trong Q3/2017, cc d n thm d u t du kh vn ang b dng, gin tin .
Doanh thu ph bao him sc khe v xe c gii giam ln lt 7% v 4% so vi cng k, cha p ng k
vng s b p cho hot ng bao him thng mi. Tuy nhin, PVI d kin s ghi nhn khoan LNTT t
bin khoang 90 t t vic chuyn nhng cc cn h thuc d n The Costa Nha Trang, gip b p cho
kho khn trong kinh doanh bao him nm 2017. Trong o, d n The Costa Nha Trang c PVI
chuyn nhng xong. Mi y, PVI nhn chuyn giao D n BS Embassy Garden trung tm KT
H Ty vi quy m 3,5 ha vi 53 l bit th. D n ny c PVI d kin bn giao vo Q3/2018 v ghi
nhn doanh thu vo 2018-2019. Ngoi ra, PVN d kin trong nm 2017-2018 s thoi ton b vn khi
PVI, khin PVI s khng cn c li th ln trong mang bao him du kh nh khi cn l thnh vin ca
PVN. Tuy nhin, hin ti t trng doanh thu cc nghip v bao him lin quan n PVN giam xung
mc 16% nm 2016, cho thy vic thoi vn ny s khng c anh hng qu nghim trng ti hot ng
ca PVI. HDI Global cng ty cung cp dch v bao him hn 130 quc gia (thuc tp on Talanx, mt
trong nhng tp on ti chnh ln nht Chu u hin quan l hn 100 t Euro ti san) d tnh tng t l
s hu ti PVI. Nu k hoch ny c thc hin thnh cng, PVI s c hng nhiu li ch t ngun
ti chnh ln, mng li bao him rng v kinh nghim t HDI Global.
BMI Gi mc tiu 32,150 upside 10%

Tng doanh thu ph bao him gc 6 thng u nm 2017 t 1.620 t VN (+16%yoy), mc tng trng
cao nht trong vng 8 nm tr li y. Doanh thu mang bao him sc khe & tai nn con ngi tng
trng mnh nht 40,5% yoy. Trong o, ng lc chnh t hot ng bao him tai nn vi t l bi
thng (khoang 18%) thp hn kh nhiu so vi hot ng bao him sc khe (60%). Chng ti k vng
hot ng bao him tai nn s em li ngun doanh thu tt vi t l bi thng mc n nh cho cng
ty nm 2017. Nh y mnh vo mang bao him tai nn c t l bi thng tng i thp, nn t l
bi thng ca BMI (47%) thp nht trong top 5 cng ty bao him phi nhn th ton th trng. im
nht quan trng l: BMI hon thnh trch lp d phng cho cc hot ng u t khng hiu qua,
gip danh mc u t hin nay ca BMI kh an ton vi khoang 90% u t vo tin gi v tri phiu,
gip t sut u t ca BMI trong nhng nm ti s kha quan hn. Theo c tnh ca BSC, cc khoan
u t hin ti ca BMI c ghi nhn vi gi gc thp hn khoang 300 t.

Gi ng
M DT2017 E LN2017 EPS P/E F P/B F ROE Dividend Gi mc
ca
CK (t ) E (t ) 2017 2017 2017 (2016) 2016 tiu
30/09/2017
BMI 3,836 195.3 2,410 13.0 1.0 8.0% 10% 29,200 32,150
PVI 7,283 465 1,987 19.1 1.1 6.3% 20% 32,200 38,000
VNR 1,788 248.8 1,900 12.6 1.2 10% 12% 26,300 26,500
Ngnh ung [Trung lp]
Gi tr tiu th ngnh ung gm nc giai kht v sa trong Q2/2017 tip tc tng trng
dng nhng thp hn qu trc ln lt l 3,7% v 2,2%.
Gi sa bt nguyn liu bin ng trong qy 3/2017 v d bo tng trong cc thng ti.
Kt qua kinh doanh 6T.2017: Cc doanh nghip trong lnh vc ung tng trng kha quan.
Chng ti duy tr quan im Trung lp i vi c phiu ngnh ung.

Gi tr tiu th ngnh ung tip

tc tng trng dng trong qu Tng trng lnh vc ung
2/2017. Tuy nhin, so vi qu trc, 15.0%
cc con s ny u cho thy s suy
giam ca ngnh. C th, mc tng
11.6%
trng ca ngnh hng nc giai kht 10.6%
10.3%
giam t 9,1% xung 5,4%, v ca
10.0% 9.0%
ngnh san phm t sa giam t 8.6%
8.1%
10,3% xung 8,1%. S st giam ny l 9.3% 7.7%
9.1%
do nhu cu tiu dng giam sau
ma cao im dp Tt Nguyn n
5.0% 4.3%
trong qu u nm. Khu vc nng 5.9% 5.7%
5.4%
5.1%
thn tip tc l vng t tim nng 4.8%
2.5%
cho nhiu nh san xut, vi mc tng
6,5% yoy, ch yu do tng trng san
lng v ong gop 57,5% vo tng 0.0%
doanh thu ngnh hng tiu dng ton 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q2016 1Q17 2Q2017

quc. Trong khi khu vc thnh th ch Nc gii kht San phm t sa

t mc tng 5,1% yoy.
Ngun: Bo co Market Pulse 2Q/2017, Nielsen
Gi sa bt nguyn liu bin ng trong qy 3/2017. C th, gi sa bt gy giam 10% t mc 2,173
USD/tn (21/06/2017) xung mc 1,954 USD/tn (26/09/2017), trong khi gi sa bt nguyn kem tng
4% t 2,990 USD/tn (21/06/2017) ln mc 3,122 USD/tn (26/09/2017). Theo Reuters, gi sa nguyn
liu trong thi gian ti s tng do ngun cung khng bt kp nhu cu v New Zealand t nc xut
khu sa ln nht th gii ang gp thi tit xu khin san lng san xut giam, v nhu cu b sa

Gi sa bt gy Gi sa bt nguyn kem

2500 3300

2200 2800

1900 2300

1600 1800
6/22/2016
7/22/2016
8/22/2016
9/22/2016
10/22/2016
11/22/2016
12/22/2016
1/22/2017
2/22/2017
3/22/2017
4/22/2017
5/22/2017
6/22/2017
7/22/2017
8/22/2017
9/22/2017

6/22/2016
7/22/2016
8/22/2016
9/22/2016
10/22/2016
11/22/2016
12/22/2016
1/22/2017
2/22/2017
3/22/2017
4/22/2017
5/22/2017
6/22/2017
7/22/2017
8/22/2017
9/22/2017

SMP (USD/tn) WMP (USD/tn)

 trn th gii vn tip tc tng mnh.
Kt qu kinh doanh 6T.2017: Cc doanh nghip trong lnh vc ung tng trng kh quan. Tng
doanh thu ca 5 doanh nghip ln ngnh ung m chng ti thng k tng 9% Yoy v tng LNST tng
13% YoY. Trong o, 2 doanh nghip ln nht ngnh bia l SAB, v BHN u ghi nhn mc bin li nhun
gp tng i n nh. Bt chp gi bt sa gy v nguyn kem nguyn liu u vo tng khoang 35-
40% trong 6 thng u nm, VNM vn duy tr ghi nhn tng trng bin li nhun gp v LNST.

6T.2017 DT ( t ) % yoy LNST %yoy C tc 2016 C tc 2017 BIn LNG Bin LNG
(t ) 6T.2017 6T.2016
VNM 25,398 +11% 5,852 +17% 40% tin 20% tin 49% 46%
20% cp
QNS 3,924 +18% 490 +0% 30% cp 5% tin 24% 30%
SAB 15,642 +6% 2,567 +8% 30% tin 27% 28%
BHN 4,226 +5% 313 -2% 18% tin 27% 26%
SMB 414 -4% 42 +2% 25% tin 22% 23%
WSB 414 -4% 57 +33% 20% tin 20% 18%
Tng 50,017 9% 9,320 13%
Ngun: BCTCDN & BSC Tng hp.

Quan im u t

Chng ti duy tr quan im Trung lp i vi c phiu ngnh ung da trn nhng l do:

(1) i vi c phiu ngnh Bia: bin li nhun gp n nh nhng gi c phiu cc doanh nghip vn
ang mc cao do trin vng kinh doanh c phan nh vo: xt v P/E v P/B: SAB (37.12x;
12.36x), BHN (38,1x; 4.94x) cao hn hoc xp x so vi mc trung bnh khu vc (27.3x; 3.3x). Mc d gi
c phiu SAB ang mc cao so vi trin vng san xut kinh doanh, nhng SAB ang co anh hng ln
n cc ch s VN30, VN Index v dn ti anh hng n th trng chng khon phi sinh. Ngoi ra,
vic tin hnh thoi vn nh nc ti SAB v BHN trong nm 2017 cng s l im nhn ng ch vi 2
c phiu ny.

(2) i vi c phiu ngnh sa: chng ti nh gi Kha quan vi c phiu VNM v Trung lp vi QNS.

VNM Gi mc tiu 180,000 ng/cp upside 21.1%.

Trong 6 thng u nm, doanh thu tng 11% yoy, cao hn mc tng trng 8%-9% ca ngnh, theo
Nielsen. Trong o, DT t th trng trong nc tng 17% nh th phn cng ty tng ln, nhng DT xut
khu giam 18% do nhng bt n chnh tr Iraq Quc gia chim hn 80% xut khu ca VNM. D bo
hot ng xut khu ca VNM nm 2017 s giam khoang 20% yoy. Bin LN gp 6 thng 2017 n nh
nh VNM cht c gi bt sa nguyn liu thp, cc dng san phm sa organic c mc gi bn cao,
v kim sot tt chi ph nguyn vt liu nh tng s ch ng bng ngun cung sa trong nc. Hin ti,
VNM chim hn 50% th phn trong ngnh sa. Sp ti VNM s tip tc tng cng thu tm th phn
thng qua cc k hoch trin khai cc san phm mi v tng cng u t vo cc trang tri b. Mi
y, VNM v Tp on Chr.Hansen (Tp on khoa hc dinh dng hng u th gii ca an Mch)
 k kt hp tc chin lc Tin phong ng dng cc chng probiotic tin tin nht vo san phm sa
Vinamilk nhm san xut ra cc san phm mang tnh t ph ng dng men vi sinh th h mi dnh
ring cho ngi Vit. Ngoi ra, VNM cng co k hoch xy dng trang tri 700-800ha gm 8.000 con b
gn TP. HCM v k kt vi UBND TP. H Ni v mt trang tri 8.000 con b khc, nhm tng ngun
cung trong nc t mc hin ti 25-30% ln 40% vo nm 2020, v gip cng ty giam thiu ri ro tng
gi bt sa nguyn liu.

QNS Gi mc tiu 82,500 ng/cp upside 18%.

Doanh thu thun 1H2017 t 3923,7 t (+17,8% yoy), gi vn 2982 t (+27,6% yoy) khin LN gp giam
5%, khng t nh k vng, c bit l mang hot ng chnh sa u nnh vi bin LNG giam 3%yoy
do cnh tranh gay gt t Vinamilk v Nutifood. Ngoi ra, mang ma ng cng c d bo gp nhiu
kho khn cnh tranh t ng Thi Lan t nm 2018 khi ngnh ng Vit Nam bi b hn ngch thu
quan ng theo cam kt ATIGA. Nhm giam kho khn cnh tranh trn th trng, QNS d kin s tinh
luyn ng RE bn cnh san phm ng RS hin ti ngay trong v ma 2017/2028 QNS. Ngoi ra, cng
ty cng s th nghim ong goi cc san phm ng vi trng lng thp hn phn phi trc tip
ti ngi tiu dng, c tnh bin LN mang ma ng c th c cai thin ti 30%. QNS hon
thin nng cng sut nh my ng An Kh ln 18.000 TMN, tr thnh nh my in sinh khi c cng
sut ln nht ca nc, nm trong Quy hoch in pht trin in lc quc gia giai on 2011-2020 c
xt n 2030. y l mang hot ng c nhiu tim nng v u ra n nh nh c EVN cam kt thu
ma 100%, d kin em li doanh thu n nh 330-400 t ng mi nm. p ng nguyn liu cho
nh my cng sut ln, QNS ang co k hoch m rng din tch ma nguyn liu thm 7.000 ha ln
35.000 vo nm 2020.

GTN Theo di

Doanh thu thun 1H2017 t 2.083 t (+71% yoy) v LNST t 95,4 t ng, gp 19 ln so vi cng k
2016. Tuy nhin, hot ng u t chnh vo nng nghip ca GTN d on s gp nhiu thch thc.
Trong o, Mc Chu Milk ng lc chnh ca GTN s gp p lc cnh tranh ln t Vinamilk chim
hn 50% th phn sa. Mi y, GTN hon tt mua vo nng t l s hu ti Vilico ln 70,05% - nhm
hin thc ha gic m thc hin chui gi tr i t nng tri ti gia nh v cui cng n bn n.
Vinatea cng ang gp nhiu vn trong vic giai quyt hng tn kho v m rng san xut kinh doanh.
tng cng knh phn phi, Vinatea k kt vi n v thnh vin ca tp on Kido vi khoang
400.000 im bn hng cho mang thc phm ong goi. Theo k hoch, GTN d kin s hon thnh qu
trnh ti c cu vo nm 2018. Tnh n cui Q2/2017, GTN c khoang 1.280 t tin v cc khoan tng
ng tin, gip GTN c ngun vn u t vo cc d n sinh li tt trong tng lai. Chng ti khuyn
ngh tip tc theo di i vi c phiu GTN.

M CK DT 2017 LN 2017 EPS P/E FW P/B ROE C tc 2017 Gi ng ca Gi mc

(t ng) (t ng) 2017 2017 30/09/2017 tiu
SAB 34,495 4,703 7,051 29.3 10.5 36.1% 35% tin 260,000 168,600
VNM 52,945 11,220 7,733 19.8 8.94 50% >50% LNST 149,200 180,000
QNS 7,665 1,349 5,425 15.2 4.4 23% >15% tin 69,700 82,500
GTN 3,950 70 280 60.7 1.5 3% n/a 16,350 n/a
VLC 2,800 115 1,822 9 1.16 17.1% 6.5-8% tin 16,000 n/a
Ngnh Cng bin [Trung Lp]
San lng container qua cang 6T2017 tng trng 5%
Gi dch v giam khin BLNG cang khu Hai Phng giam mnh, doanh nghip kho bi DC pha
Nam vn n nh.
H mc nh gi xung Trung Lp do lo ngi gi dch v bc xp kh phc hi trong qu 4 v
nm 2018.
Tng sn lng container qua cng tng 6% yoy. 6T2017, tng san lng hng hoa qua cang tng 11%,
t 254 triu tn, ong gop chnh l hng lng v hng kh, tng trng ln lt 12% v 24% so vi cng
k 2016. Hng container ch t mc tng trng 5% t 6.5 triu TEUs
Cu Bch ng hon thnh, theo o cc cang vng h lu sng Cm nh Vip Green, Nam Hai nh
V, Tn V, nh V s c hng li khi cc tu ln b hn ch khai thc ti cc cang thng ngun.
Kt qu kinh doanh 1H2017. Cnh tranh cao ti khu vc Hai Phng khin cc cang dng chnh sch h
gi bc xp thu ht cc hng tu. Theo chia s 1 s cang thm ch a ra gi cho thp hn ti hn
50% so vi cc cang i th. iu ny khin cc doanh nghip nh VSC, HAH, DXP ghi nhn mc BLNG
giam ng k so vi 1H2016. TMS tng trng t bin do hp nht VNF nn s liu so snh khng
mang nhiu ngha.
Bng tng hp kt qu kinh doanh qu 1-2017.

Doanh thu BLNG LNST P/E P/B

1H2017 yoy 1H2017 1H2016 1H2017 yoy
VSC 607 21% 31% 36% 109 -13% 10.89 1.84
TMS 1,868 275% 17% 28% 126 53% 8.96 1.85
GMD 1,087 4% 25% 29% 193 2% 20.33 1.99
DXP 761 -46% 31% 36% 11 -57% 12.58 1.03
VGP 667 3151% 1% 34% 9 161% 8.83 1.13
PDN 588 -39% 31% 32% 42 35% 15.77 2.88
DVP 397 4% 54% 53% 148 3% 9.35 2.98
TCL 321 6% 18% 18% 42 -2% 7.05 0.99
PRC 287 -3% 9% 8% 2 51% 5.95 0.74
CLL 113 -78% 15% 42% 2 -95% 12.31 1.54
PHP 66 -8% 37% 43% 190 -16% 10.26 1.31
SGP 36 10% 35% 36% 337 415% 97.67 1.45
CDN 33 -2% 36% 39% 68 1% 11.8 1.84

Ngun: BCTC cc cng ty.

Quan im u t

Theo d kin, u nm 2018 GMD a vo hot ng giai on 1 cang Nam nh V vi cng sut d
kin 500.000 TEU/nm. Thm vo o, 6 cu cang ti Lch Huyn cng i vo hot ng nm 2018 lm
tng mnh tnh cnh tranh ti cc cang khu vc h lu sng Cm. V mt ngun cu, cc hng tu quc
t nhn chung cha th phc hi mnh trong qu 4 v nm 2018. V vy, gi cc bc xp trong khu vc
Hai Phng c d bo kho tng. Xt v cc doanh nghip logistics pha Nam, chng ti cho rng vic
khu cang Ci Mp Th Vai c y mnh khai thc s gip cc doanh nghip kho bi, ICD, DC trong khu
vc gn ni thnh hng li, nh STG, SWC, TMS, GMD. Do o, chng ti h mc nh gi t Kha Quan
xung Trung Lp vi ngnh cang bin.

GMD- Khuyn ngh Theo di.

Trc khi din ra i hi c ng, gi cp GMD tng mnh nh k hoch bn bt mt phn ti san, tp
trung hot ng kinh doanh ct li v s tham gia ca nhm c ng Hn Quc. Tuy nhin thi im
hin ti GMD giao dch ti mc PE hn 20 ln, cao gn gp i so vi trung bnh ngnh. V vy chng
ti ch a ra khuyn ngh Theo Di vi GMD. Trong thi gian ti, hot ng chnh ca GMD c mt s
tim nng: (1) mang logistics tng trng tch cc nh Mekong logistics i vo hot ng. (2) SCSC tng
trng mnh d bo khoang 30% ong gop khoang 84 t vo LN t lin doanh lin kt, tng 67% so vi
cng k 2016.

VSC- Khuyn ngh Mua- Gi mc tiu 64.500

Theo chia s t VSC, kt qua qu 3 t LNTT khoang 80-85 t. Trong thng 11, Vip green s nhn thm 1
cu c tm vi ti 14 hng container nhm phc v cc tu hng c ln ca Maserk Line. Tng vn u
t l 60 t. Hin ti, Vip Green vn ang phc v 8 chuyn/tun, trong o 5 chuyn ca Evergreen, 2 ca
Maserk Line v 1 ca OOCL. Trong khi o, cang Green Port phc v khoang 10-11 chuyn/tun, ch yu
l cc tu c nh, di 1,000 Teus. Ngoi ra, VSC thnh lp 1 cng ty con (nm 67% c phn, 33% ca
CBCNV) quan l khai thc bi 5 ha VSC mua u nm ( s tng ln 8ha trong qu 4) v x l th tc thng
quan cho hng container qua cang Vip-Green.

Chng ti nhn nh ca nm 2017, VSC co th ch t kt qua tng ng nm 2016, tng ng vi

LNTT khoang 320 t. Sang nm 2018, vi vic Nam nh V i vo hot ng (khoang thng 5/2017) tnh
hnh cnh tranh trong khu vc tng cao, gi dch v bc xp kh phc hi. V vy, chng ti h mc gi
mc tiu 64,500 ng/cp.

M DT LNTT EPS F P/E F P/B F ROE F Gi 29/09/ Gi mc

CK 2017(t) 2017(t) 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 tiu
GMD 4,354 579 2,774 16.33 2.06 11% 43,750 N/A
PHP 2,529 504 1,432 10.40 1.39 11% 14,000 22,980
VSC 1,187 320 7,020 10.67 2.11 20% 56,400 64,500
HAH 520 130 3,578 6.53 0.91 16% 23,000 30,640
CDN 640 147 1,634 13.77 1.98 16% 24,800 N/A
Ngnh Vn ti bin [Trung Lp]
BDI t 1.502 im, cao nht nm 2017, d bo nm 2018, tng trng cu s vt tng trng
cung vn tai vi t l khoang 3.5%/2.1%
KQKD 6T2017 tip tc phn ha gia hng ri v hng lng.
BDI ang trn hi phc mnh. ong ca ngy 22/9/2017, ch s BDI mc l 1.502 im, tng gn
gp i so vi cng k 2016 v tng 57% so vi u nm. 6 thng 2017, cung tu hng kh tng 5% v
c d bo gi nguyn tng trng n ht nm, trong khi o cu vn chuyn d bo tng trng
khoang 4.3% trong nm 2017.

D bo nm 2018, 2019, vn tai hng ri s khi sc hn. Lng cung tu d bo tng khoang 2.1% v
0.9% trong 2 nm ny, trong khi o cu vn chuyn c th tng ln lt khoang 3.5% v 3%.

Vn ti hng lng vn n nh, hng ri cha phc hi. Cc doanh nghip vn tai hng lng nh PVT,
GSP, VIP, VTO, PJT c li th c am bao ngun cu t tng cng ty m nn kt qua kinh doanh kh
n nh. Trong khi o, cc doanh nghip vn tai hng ri (VOS) khng co c li th ny, kt hp vi
kho khn chung ca th trng vn tai hng ri quc t, nn vn ghi nhn kt qua km tch cc.

Bng tng hp kt qu kinh doanh qu 2-2017.

Revenue Net income

1H2017 YoY 1H2017 YoY P/E P/B
PVT 3,022 -7% 189 -21% 11.5 0.5
TJC 96 12% 1.41 -82% 11.5 1.2
VOS 732 8% -172 NA 15.6 0.5
VTO 627 5% 45 -12% NA 0.5
GSP 607 9% 26 -18% 7.0 0.5
VNA 251 -10% -68 NA 8.9 1.0
VIP 370 31% 33 -59% NA 0.3
PJT 269 33% 17 4% 13.7 0.5
VFR 106 -19% 21 NA 5.6 1.4
HTV 99 1% 10 -34% 26.9 0.5
TCO 80 5% 9 -45% 12.7 0.7
Ngun: BCTC cc cng ty.

Quan im u t

Mc d c s phc hi rt mnh trong thng 9/2017, BDI index vn km rt xa so vi nh gn nht, lp

nm 2014. V vy, cc doanh nghip vn tai hng ri nh VOS, NOS, VNA kho co th to t bin trong
qu cui nm. Mt khc, cc doanh nghip thuc tp on Petrolimex nh VTO, VIP, PJT vn ghi nhn
kt qua n nh (nm 2016 tng trng t bin do tng mnh lng vn chuyn t Hn Quc). Tm
nhn n nm 2018, chng ti nng nh gi ln Trung Lp vi ngnh vn tai bin.
PVT- Khuyn ngh Mua- Gi mc tiu 19.000 ng.

Kt qua kinh doanh qu 2 giam mnh 21% so vi 1H2016 ch yu l do NMLD Dung Qut bc vo sa
cha nh k ln 3, ko di 48 ngy ( xong trc 4 ngy so vi d kin) v s anh hng ti ca kt qua
qu 3 ca PVT. Trin vng 2018, chng ti cho rng PVT rt kha quan nh: (1) Ngun cu vn chuyn du
th t NMLD Nghi Sn. (2) Tng san lng vn chuyn than cho cc nh my nhit in do PVN lm ch
u t. ng thi t thng 5/2017, PVT cng k mt s hp ng ch than cho cc nh my ca EVN.
(3) Nn tang ti chnh bn vng vi s d tin mt ti qu ln. Chng ti nhn nh t gi USD/VND s
khng c bin ng ln trong nm 2018, ri ro l chnh lch t gi khng ln. Nm 2018, chng ti d
bo PVT ghi nhn doanh thu 8.000 t, LNST dt 719 t, tng ng vi EPS 2018 t 1.917 ng/cp

DT LNST EPS F P/E F P/B F ROE F

M CK 2017(t) 2017(t) 2017 2017 2017 2017 Gi 29/09/2017 Gi mc tiu
PVT 6,426 410 1,303 11.09 1.00 14% 14,900 19,000
GSP 1,286 69 2,300 5.60 0.99 18% 13,550 15,200
VTO 1,312 120 1,521 4.83 0.51 8% 7,300 N/A
VIP 655 110 1,606 4.76 0.47 7.5% 7,240 N/A

Ngun: BSC d bo.

Ngnh Thy Sn [Km kh quan]
Xut khu thy san 9T2017 t 5.91 t, tng 18% yoy
Gi nguyn liu u vo co xu hng tng trong thng 9.
KQKD 1H2017 cc doanh nghip u ngnh u ghi nhn mc tng trng m.
Xut khu thy sn 9T2017 c t 5.91 t, tng 18% yoy. Trong o, Hoa K, Nht Ban, Trung Quc v
Hn Quc l 4 th trng nhp khu hng u ca thy san Vit Nam trong 8 thng u nm 2017,
chim 55,5% tng gi tr xut khu thy san. Trong 8 thng u nm 2017, cc th trng c gi tr xut
khu thy san tng mnh l Trung Quc (63,3%), H Lan (35,1%), Anh (29,5%), Hn Quc (28%), Nht
Ban (27,7%), v Canada (21,5%).

Gi nguyn liu u vo tng. Gi c tra nguyn liu ti ng bng sng Cu Long trong thng 9/2017
tng kh mnh do ngun cung yu, hin dao ng mc 25.000 - 27.000 ng/kg. Tm s vi mc tng
khoang 20.000 ng/kg so vi thng trc. C th, ti Bc Liu, C Mau gi tm s nguyn liu c
thng li mua tn h dn, loi 20 con/kg t 260.000 - 270.000 ng/kg, loi 30 con gi t 225.000 -
235.000 ng/kg.

Kt qu kinh doanh 1H2017. S tng gi ca nguyn liu u vo (do thiu ngun cung) v st giam
mnh ca th trng ch lc l Hoa K c xem l nguyn nhn chnh dn ti kt qua kinh doanh km
kha quan trong 1H2017 so vi cng k 2016

Tng hp kt qu kinh doanh qu 1H2016.

Revenue Net income

YoY YoY P/E P/B
1H2017 1H2017
HVG 12,276 -17% -97 -188% NA 0.6
VHC 3,970 8% 240 -26% 9.2 1.8
FMC 2,215 12% 63 11% 6.5 1.4
IDI 2,297 20% 77 2% 12.5 0.6
ANV 1,366 2% 53 -148% 6.2 0.9
ACL 601 -1% 13 30% 7.0 0.5
TS4 364 -8% 3 -18% 17.3 0.5
ABT 182 -16% 12 -53% 10.9 1.0

Quan im u t

Chng ti duy tr nh gi Km Kh Quan vi ngnh thy san. BSC th trng Hoa K ong vai tr quan
trng ti tng trng ca ton ngnh. Cn mt thi gian di na ngnh thy san trong nc mi tm
c mt th trng tim nng tng xng. S chuyn hng sang cc nc khu vc chu nh n
, Trung Quc, i Loan gip tng v san lng xut, tuy nhin gi tr cha cao nh cc th trng kh
tnh nh M, Nht hay EU.
Chng ti khuyn ngh theo di vi mt s m u ngnh l VHC.

VHC Theo di

Mc d vn duy tr kt qua LNST tt so vi ngnh, s st giam ca th trng Hoa K khin VHC ghi nhn
tng trng m so vi cng k 2016, vi mc giam 26% yoy. Mt s nhn nh ca BSC: (1) M rng
cng sut thm 57% n cui nm 2018 gip VHC ch ng ngun nguyn liu, trnh ri ro gi u vo.
(2) Gi c bn c tra ang co xu hng tng manh do ngun cung thiu ht (VHC cng co k hoch nng
t ch vng nguyn liu ln mc 80%), (3) a dng ha c san phm v san phm gi tr gia tng.

M CK DT 2017 LNST EPS P/E F P/B F ROE Gi Gi mc tiu

2017 2017 2016 29/09/17
HVG 23,400 220 870 10.25 0.73 8% 6.340 N/A
VHC 8,610 692 6,700 8.97 1.78 15% 51.000 N/A
FMC 2800 83 3.500 7.81 1.15 20% 19.000 N/A
Ngnh Ma ng [Trung lp]
Nin v 2016/2017, san lng san xut giam 0,1%, gi bn c cai thin so vi nin v trc nhng
t u nm n nay gi ng li ang co xu hng giam r rt.
Tnh hnh ng nhp lu din bin phc tp khin cho lng ng tn kho ti cc doanh nghip
tnh n thng 8/2017 tng k lc (+270% YoY).
Kt qua kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip ng nin v 2016/2017 kha quan.
Chng ti nh gi trin vng ngnh Ma ng nin v 2017/2018 l Trung lp.

Tnh hnh nin v 2016/2017

Nin v 2016/2017, sn lng sn xut gim 0,1%, gi bn c ci thin so vi nin v trc nhng t
u nm n nay gi ng li ang c xu hng gim r rt. Tng kt nin v 2016/2017, cc nh
my ng p c 13.112.227 tn ma (+9,4% YoY), san xut 1.236.131 tn ng, giam 1.169 tn
so vi v 2015/2016 do anh hng bt li ca tnh hnh thi tit. Gi ng theo thng k ca Cc
Quan l gi co xu hng tng so vi nin v trc vi mc tng trung bnh 1.000-1.500 ng/kg i vi
ng RS v 700-1.200 ng/kg vi ng RE bn bun (tng ng mc tng 5-9% YoY). Tuy nhin, k
t u nm ti nay, gi ng bt u co xu hng giam theo xu th chung ca gi th gii, trong o
ng RS c mc giam mnh hn t 1.000-2.300 ng/kg, RE giam nh 800-1.000 ng/kg.

Gi bn bun ng trong nc Gi ng th gii

25
18
17 20

16 15
15
10
14
13 5
12
0
9/15

1/16

3/16

5/16

7/16

9/16

1/17

3/17

5/17

7/17
11/15

11/16

7/15

9/15

1/16
3/16
5/16
7/16

9/16

1/17
3/17
5/17
7/17
9/17
11/15

11/16

RS RE

Ngun: Cc Qun l gi, BSC research. Ngun: Bloomberg, BSC research.

Tnh hnh nhp lu ng qua bin gii din bin phc tp. Ti Hi ngh bn v giai php tiu th
ng bn vng thng 5/2017, Hip hi Ma ng Vit Nam (VSSA) cho bit tnh hnh bun lu ng
qua Bin gii ang din bin ngy cng phc tp vi lng ng nhp lu n thng 5 c t 400.000
tn (gn bng ca nin v trc). ng nhp lu phn ln c ngun gc t Thi Lan quc gia xut khu
ng ln th 2 trn th gii c gi r hn ng san xut trong nc t 500-1.500 ng/kg. Do o,
mc d san lng ng san xut giam so vi v trc nhng lng tn kho ng ti cc nh my,
cng ty thng mi n ht ngy 15/8 vn tng k lc, c t 554.456 tn (cao hn cng k 350.181
tn).
Kt qu kinh doanh ca hu ht cc doanh nghip ma ng u kh quan. Trong nin v 2016/2017
nh gi ng tng so vi cng k (t 1.000-1.500 ng/kg), doanh thu ca hu ht cc doanh nghip
ma ng u ghi nhn tng trng tch cc (ngoi tr SLS t gia v gi bn giam, tiu th kho khn
dn n tn kho tng cao). Tuy nhin do anh hng ca yu t thi tit, chi ph ma nguyn liu tng,
cng vi gnh nng chi ph khu hao ti mt s nh my mi hoc m rng cng sut khin cho bin
li nhun gp nhiu doanh nghip ma ng b thu hp t 1,5-2%.

DTT EBIT LNST Bin LNG Bin LNG

2016/2017 % YoY % YoY % YoY
t VND t VND t VND 2017/2016 2016/2015
SBT 4,498 11.4% 377 3.0% 339 15.3% 13.6% 15.0%
BHS (*) 5,347 22.9% 258 -24.3% 293 18.2% 11.9% 13.8%
LSS 2,024 12.2% 146 4.8% 103 15.6% 11.8% 13.0%
SLS (**) 537 -9.6% 172 27.7% 163 19.0% 36.6% 26.0%
KTS 295 1.2% 42 7.4% 42 2.5% 17.4% 16.9%
Tng 12,701 14.6% 996 -2.4% 941 16.2%
(*) BHS hy nim yt t ngy 01/09/2017 hon i vi c phiu SBT
(**) S liu nin v 2015/2016 c iu chnh do giai on 01/01/2016-30/06/2016 SLS chuyn i nin ti chnh

Ngun: BCTC, BSC Research

Quan im u t

Chng ti nh gi Trung lp i vi trin vng ngnh ma ng trong nin v 2017/2018 da trn

cc lun im sau:

Tiu th ng tng trng chm li sau khi tng nhanh trong giai on 2008-2013. Trong 3 nin
v gn y, tiu th ng ch tng khoang 6,6%, t 1,6 triu tn (nin v 2015/2016).
Gi ng th gii v trong nc c xu hng gim. K t u nm n nay, gi ng th gii
giam khoang 30%, xung mc 13.64 USD/lbs (T9/2017), ng trong nc giam gi t 1.000-2.500
ng/kg. D bo nin v 2017/2018, cung ng th gii tng cao, d kin d tha 4,9 triu tn so
vi nhu cu (theo FO Litch), s khin cho xu hng giam gi ca ng tip din.

Chi ph sn xut ma ng cao khin cho mt bng gi bn trong nc chnh lch ng k so vi

ng ca cc quc gia trong khu vc. Chi ph thu mua ma nguyn liu nc ta t 1-1,1 triu
ng/tn, bng 1,45 ln so vi gi ma Thi Lan do din tch trng ma cn nh l, cha ng dng
c gii ha trit khin cho nng sut v ch ng cn thp.
Tnh hnh cnh tranh gay gt hn khi cc cam kt theo Hip nh thng mi t do ASEAN
(ATIGA) c hiu lc trong 2018. Theo cam kt trong ATIGA th sang 2018, Vit Nam s phai d b
hn ngch nhp khu ng thi trong thi gian ti s phai giam thu sut i vi ng nhp khu
t cc quc gia ASEAN v 0%. iu ny c d bo s gia tng p lc cnh tranh i vi ng ni
trc s xm ln ca ng Thi Lan vn c gi thnh san xut r hn 25-30% v san lng c
d bo t k lc trong v ti (c tnh, san lng ng Thi Lan s t 12 triu tn (+20% YoY)
nh thi tit thun li).
Tuy nhin, chng ti vn khuyn ngh cc nh u t Theo di i vi c phiu SBT da trn li th v
th phn chi phi i vi ng tinh luyn RE cng nh khon li nhun d kin thu c t bn c
phn KCN Thnh Thnh Cng trong nm 2018.

n thi im ny, cu chuyn sp nhp gia SBT v BHS ng ng. Vic hai cng ty c th phn ln
nht ngnh ma ng (SBT: 15-16%; BHS: 19-20%) v chi phi th trng ng tinh luyn RE (tng th
phn sau sp nhp ln ti 62,5%) v chung mt nh c th s l mt tn hiu ng mng cho ngnh
ng ni a khi s hu mt doanh nghip quy m ln (tng cng sut 30.000 TMN, din tch nguyn
liu 49.000 ha), cng ngh tinh luyn ng hin i, c h thng khch hng vng chc v s hu knh
phn phi l uy tn. Nh li th v quy m, cng ty sau hp nht c th tit giam cc chi ph, tn dng
knh phn phi ca nhau cai thin kha nng cnh tranh ca ng ni so vi ng nhp khu; cng
nh co kha nng chi phi v gi ln hn.

Bn cnh o, vo ngy 29/08/2017, SBT cng thng qua ngh quyt v vic chuyn nhng ton b
24,5 triu c phn ti CTCP Khu cng nghip Thnh Thnh Cng vi gi chuyn nhng theo gi th
trng nhng khng thp hn 25.000 ng/CP, thi gian chm nht n ngy 30/6/2018. Nu chuyn
nhng thnh cng, s tin SBT d kin thu v l 612,5 t ng, nu so vi gi vn l 245 t, SBT co
c khoan li 367 t ng, tc gn tng li nhun trc thu ca SBT v BHS trong v 2016/2017.

Gi ng ca Gi mc
M DTT 2017F LN 2017F EPS 2017F P/E P/B ROE
29/09/2017 tiu
CK (t VND) (t VND) (VND) 2017F 2017F 2017F
(VND) (VND)
SBT(*) 10,156 509 1,058 24.56 1.9 6.77% 26,000 N/A
SLS 653 173 18,660 9.4 3.4 32.4% 175,000 N/A
LSS 2,272 115 1,540 7.4 0.46 8.1% 11,400 N/A
(*) Da trn d phng kt qu kinh doanh ca SBT v BHS, cha tnh n li th hp nht v li nhun t chuyn nhng c phn
ti KCN Thnh Thnh Cng.

Ngun: BSC Research

 Khuyn co s dng
Bn bo co ny ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC), ch
cung cp nhng thng tin chung v phn tch v tnh hnh kinh t v m cng nh din bin th trng
chng khon. Bo co ny khng c xy dng cung cp theo yu cu ca bt k t chc hay c nhn
ring l no hoc cc quyt nh mua bn, nm gi chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng cc thng
tin, phn tch, bnh lun ca Bn bo co nh l ngun tham kho trc khi a ra nhng quyt nh u
t cho ring mnh. Mi thng tin, nhn nh v d bo v quan im trong bo co ny c da trn
nhng ngun d liu ng tin cy. Tuy nhin Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht
trin Vit Nam (BSC) khng m bo rng cc ngun thng tin ny l hon ton chnh xc v khng chu
bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo co
ny, cng nh khng chu trch nhim v nhng thit hi i vi vic s dng ton b hay mt phn ni
dung ca bn bo co ny. Mi quan im cng nh nhn nh c cp trong bo co ny da trn
s cn nhc cn trng, cng minh v hp l nht trong hin ti. Tuy nhin nhng quan im, nhn nh
ny c th thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bn bo co ny c bn quyn v l ti sn ca Cng ty C
phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam (BSC). Mi hnh vi sao chp, sa i, in n
m khng c s ng ca BSC u tri lut. Bt k ni dung no ca ti liu ny cng khng c (i) sao
chp hay nhn bn bt k hnh thc hay phng thc no hoc (ii) c cung cp nu khng c s
chp thun ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon BIDV.

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