Chapter 1

MGB Introduction to the Theory of Statistics

19(b). Chevalier de Mere problem.
Probability of at least one 6 in 4 tosses of a fair die = 1 - Probability of no 6 in 4 tosses
5 4 671
of a fair coin = 1 (6) = 1296 0.5177.

Probability of at least one double-6 in 24 tosses of two fair dice = 1 - Probability of no

6 in 24 tosses of two fair dice - Probability of only one 6 in 24 tosses of two fair dice =
5 24 5 24 1 5 23
1 (6) (6) 24 (6) (6) 0.927

Hence, probability of at least one 6 in 4 tosses of a fair die is lower than probability of
at least one double-6 in 24 tosses of two fair dice.

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