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Predicting Volatility
Stephen Marra, CFA, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager/Analyst
Uncertainty is inherent in every financial model. It is driven by changing fundamentals, human psychology, and the
manner in which the markets discount potential future states of the macroeconomic environment. While defining uncer-
tainty in financial markets can quickly escalate into philosophical discussions, volatility is widely accepted as a practical
measure of risk. Most market variables remain largely unpredictable, but volatility has certain characteristics that can
increase the accuracy of its forecasted values. The statistical nature of volatility is one of the main catalysts behind the
emergence of volatility targeting and risk parity strategies.
Volatility forecasting has important implications for all investors focused on risk-adjusted returns, especially those that
employ asset allocation, risk parity, and volatility targeting strategies. An understanding of the different approaches used
to forecast volatility and the implications of their assumptions and dependencies provides a robust framework for the
process of risk budgeting.
In this paper, we will examine the art and science of volatility prediction, the characteristics which make it a fruitful
endeavor, and the effectiveness as well as the pros and cons of different methods of predicting volatility.
2
to the overall fund. As the volatility of each of these asset classes is not 0.0
constant, a forecast for the expected volatility for each is required to
maintain this type of investment approach. -0.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
It is well established that volatility is easier to predict than returns. Lag (weeks)
Volatility possesses a number of stylized facts which make it inherently For the period January 1999 to October 2015, weekly returns
more forecastable. As such, volatility prediction is one of the most The performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future results. This is not intended to represent any product or strategy
important and, at the same time, more achievable goals for anyone managed by Lazard. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
allocating risk and participating in financial markets. Source: Bloomberg
In contrast, if one plots the current month’s return versus the next Leverage Effect
month there is no linear relationship and the serial correlation The hypothesized leverage effect along with the volatility feedback
of actual returns—not the absolute value of returns—remains effect describes the negative and asymmetric relationship between
insignificant (Exhibit 3). volatility and returns. The mathematical calculation of volatility
is indifferent to the direction of the market. However, volatility is
negatively correlated to returns. At the same time, negative returns
Exhibit 3
result in larger changes in volatility than positive returns. The beta of
...But Not Indicative of Future Returns
the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to the S&P 500 Index on negative
Following Monthly Return (%) return days is -3.9 with an r-squared of 0.36 whereas the beta of VIX
20
R squared: 0.00
to the S&P 500 Index on positive return days is -2.8 with an r-squared
10 of 0.23 (Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4
There Is a Negative Relationship between Returns and Volatility
Change in VIX on Negative S&P 500 Index Days Change in VIX on Positive S&P 500 Index Days
40 40
20 20
0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Change in S&P 500 Index (%) Change in S&P 500 Index (%)
Exhibit 5
Methods of Volatility Forecasting
VIX Mean Reversion Top/Bottom 10% Converge Towards A summary of this section is presented in the box “Summary
Long-Term Average Characteristics of Volatility Forecasting Methods” (page 7).
VIX
40 HIS–Historical Volatility Models
From High Historical volatility models are created directly from realized
30
volatility calculated over a specific time frame. These models are the
Long-Term Average easiest to create and adjust and have strong forecasting performance
20
From Low
when compared to more complex models. In general, by adding
10
emphasis to more recent observations by employing a decay factor,
these models can incorporate both the persistence and the mean
0 reverting nature of volatility to become a straightforward, robust
4 8 12 16 20 24 volatility forecast.
Weeks after observation in top/bottom 10%
rates, and equity markets—large movements in one market are often As of January 1990 to October 2015, weekly returns
accompanied by large movements in another. The correlation between Volatility correlation: MOVE Index and VIX Index. Return correlation: S&P 500 Index
and Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
implied volatility in the equity and bond market fluctuates in a much Source: Bloomberg
smaller range around a positive mean.
5
Exhibit 8
Forecast Effectiveness
Random Historical 3M Moving Discrete
Model Walk Mean Average EWMA ARMA Historical GARCH(1,1) ISD
Mean Squared Estimation Error 0.0045 0.0080 0.0048 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0043 0.0057
Mean Over-Estimation Error (%) 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.8 6.1
Mean Under-Estimation Error (%) -4.8 -8.0 -4.9 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 -4.9 -5.3
% Periods Over-Estimated 53.0 56.0 55.2 49.1 42.7 52.5 47.1 84.7
Mean Time of Over/Under-estimation (months) 1.53 6.28 2.14 1.57 1.62 1.76 1.61 6.16
largely involve the use of ARCH models augmented to include various between. Interestingly, while consistently over-estimating volatility
uncorrelated external risk drivers that are likely to affect volatility. over long time periods, the implied volatility model actually under-
These risk drivers include economic factors related to credit, inflation, estimated volatility during the global financial crisis—achieving a peak
interest rates, economic growth, liquidity, and currencies. Exogenous volatility of 60% using monthly VIX levels and 80% using daily VIX
factors can have a significant and non-linear impact on realized levels, while the S&P 500 Index actually reached a realized volatility
volatility. Over the short term, the predictive power from including level of 83%.
exogenous factors typically matches that of GARCH models.
However, over the longer term, incorporating these exogenous factors Conclusion
in a non-linear fashion adds to the predictive power of the model.
Uncertainty is the basis of all financial models and volatility is
accepted as the realization of that uncertainty. Several characteristics of
Results—Forecast Effectiveness financial return series make volatility inherently predictable. However,
Exhibit 8 displays the predictive results from methods discussed. due to the stochastic nature of volatility, there is no amount of past
The discrete historical, ARMA, GARCH (1,1) and EWMA are the data that we can plug into a model that will fully capture the current
most accurate forecasting methods based on the lowest mean squared or future behavior of volatility. At best, a model can approximate the
estimation error (i.e., the squared difference between forecasted and behavior of volatility during the sample period analyzed—and forecast
realized values) while the historical mean method had the highest accuracy is determined by testing out of sample.
estimation error. The common factor contributing to the lower esti-
Research has shown that the predictive ability of a model depends
mation errors of the discrete historical, ARMA, and GARCH (1,1)
largely on the asset class and the frequency of the observations.6 Some
models is the additional layer of specification that an autoregressive
models are better at predicting equity market volatility while others are
weighting scheme provides. The ISD method was the most likely to
better at predicting interest rates or currencies. Each successive level
over-estimate future volatility (84.7% of the time) by the highest
of complexity added to these volatility predictive models increases the
magnitude (6.1%) and with a high level of persistence (6.2 months of
degree of specificity. From simple historical models, to ARMA models
average over- and under-estimation). This is largely expected due to
to the many extensions of GARCH, each successive model aims to
the additional risk premia embedded in measures of implied volatil-
capture another nuance of the return series over a specific sample
ity. ARMA was most likely to underestimate future volatility but the
period. While this increases the fit of the model to the sample data
magnitude and persistence of that underestimation was relatively low.
during the period tested, research has shown that this does not neces-
These results indicate a clear tradeoff between the additional forecast
sarily enhance the model’s predictive ability outside of sample periods.
accuracy that an autoregressive weighting scheme provides and the risk
Complexity can also engender a false sense of overconfidence in the
of over-specification to a particular sample period.
model’s predictions.
In addition, we tested the models against the realized volatility of
Consequently, simpler, broader models which are able to capture the
the S&P 500 Index during the heights of the global financial crisis
more general features of volatility and financial returns are likely to
in 2008 and the euro zone sovereign debt crisis in 2011 (Exhibit 9).
provide more robust and transparent predictive abilities over longer,
The quickest model to react to rising levels of volatility in a crisis is
out-of-sample time horizons. In particular, these models will incorpo-
the random walk model—which only incorporates recent changes
rate the primary characteristics of historical return series—volatility
in volatility. The slowest to respond is the historical mean model—
clustering, the leverage effect, and mean reversion. We prefer a
which only incorporates the long-run average of volatility. The rest
historical method of forecasting volatility which incorporates long-,
of the models’ volatility projections during these crisis periods fall in
medium- and short-term realized volatility. Including the historical
returns over 3-year, 6-month, and 1-month time periods and includ-
Exhibit 9 ing them as discrete allocations to a volatility forecast, and the most
Volatility Forecasting Methods, 2008–2012 prominent stylized facts about historical financial return series—the
clustering and long-term mean reversion of volatility. Regardless of
Volatility (%)
90
the method chosen, volatility forecasting is one of the most profound
methodologies in financial economics, as it is a key tool for asset
allocation in general, and specifically for investors who implement
60
volatility targeting and risk parity strategies.
30
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
This content represents the views of the author(s), and its conclusions may vary from those held elsewhere within Lazard Asset Management.
Lazard is committed to giving our investment professionals the autonomy to develop their own investment views, which are informed by a
robust exchange of ideas throughout the firm.
References
Blair, Bevan, Ser-Huang Poon, and Stephen J. Taylor. 2001. “Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: The Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High Frequency Index Returns.”
Journal of Econometrics, vol. 105 pp. 5–26.
Campbell, John Y., Andrew Lo, and Craig MacKinlay. 1997. The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Christensen, Bent and Nagpurnanad Prabhala. 1998. “The Relation between Implied and Realized Volatility.” Journal of Financial Economics, 50:2, pp.125–50.
Fleming, Jeff, Barbara Ostdiek, and Robert E. Whaley. 1995. “Predicting Stock Market Volatility.” Journal of Futures Markets, 15:3, pp. 265–302.
Fleming, Jeff. 1998. “The quality of market volatility forecasts implied by S&P 100 Index option prices.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 5, 4, pp. 317–345.
Engle, Robert F. 1982. “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation.” Econometrica, 50:4, pp. 987–1007.
Martin-Guerrero, J.D., et al. 2003. “Dosage individualization of erythropoietin using a profile-dependent support vector regression.” IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, Vol. 50, issue
10, pp. 1136–1142.
Poon, Ser-Huang and Clive W. J. Granger. 2003. “Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review.” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 478–539.
Notes
1 Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay (1997)
2 Data are for the period 10 January 1990 to 28 October 2015, based on the S&P 500 Index and the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, weekly frequency.
3 Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
4 Dynamic volatility models are used to find the optimal EOP dosage for anemia patients (Martin-Guerrero et al. 2003).
5 See for example: Fleming, Ostdiek, and Whaley (1995); Christensen and Prabhala (1998); Fleming (1998); Blair, Poon, and Taylor (2001).
6 Poon and Granger (2003)
Important Information
Published on 28 December 2015.
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