Housing starts construction Interest rates

91.3 11.358 13
96.3 11.355 12.62
134.6 16.1 12.97
135.8 16.315 12.02
174.9 19.205 12.21
173.2 20.263 11.9
161.6 16.885 12.02
176.8 19.441 12.01
154.9 17.379 12.08
159.3 16.028 11.8
136 15.401 11.82
108.3 13.518 11.94
109.1 14.023 11.8
130 14.442 11.78
137.5 17.916 11.56
172.7 17.655 11.55
180.7 21.99 11.68
184 20.036 11.61
162.1 19.224 11.91
147.4 19.367 11.89
148.5 16.923 12.03
152.3 18.413 12.27
126.2 16.616 12.27
98.9 14.22 12.05
105.4 15.154 11.77
95.8 13.652 11.74
145.2 20.004 11.42
176 20.692 11.55
170.5 22.532 11.55
163.4 20.043 11.31
160.7 22.047 10.94
160.7 21.055 10.78
147.7 20.541 10.69
173 21.715 10.64
124.1 17.691 10.55
120.5 16.276 10.47
115.6 15.417 10.4
107.2 16.152 10.21
151 19.617 10.04
188.2 23.754 9.87
186.6 23.05 9.84
183.6 23.74 9.74
172 23.621 9.89
163.8 21.884 9.84
 154 21.763 9.74
154.8 21.862 9.57
115.6 17.998 9.45
113 17.982 9.28
105.1 16.694 9.14
102.8 15.729 8.87
141.2 22.622 8.77
159.3 23.077 8.84
158 22.054 8.99
162.9 25.703 9.05
152.4 24.567 9.01
143.6 23.836 9.01
152 22.418 9.03
139.1 23.36 8.86
118.8 18.663 8.92
85.4 19.224 8.78
78.2 15.113 8.75
90.2 17.496 8.76
128.8 22.257 8.77
153.2 22.344 8.76
140.2 24.138 8.59
150.2 26.94 8.9
137 22.309 8.8
136.8 24.826 8.68
131.1 22.67 8.9
135.1 22.223 8.77
113 19.767 9.05
94.2 19.125 9.04
100.1 15.776 9.2
85.8 15.086 9.46
117.8 21.08 9.63
129.4 21.725 9.88
131.7 23.796 9.82
143.2 24.65 10.09
134.7 22.33 10.06
122.4 24.128 9.83
109.3 23.371 9.87
130.3 22.669 9.77
 Y TC S
Time Housing starts MA Centered 12MA De-trended series Seasonal Index
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (1) -(3) (5)
Jan-75 91.3 91.30 -18.34
Feb-75 96.3 96.30 -17.38
Mar-75 134.6 134.60 18.64
Apr-75 135.8 135.80 41.73
May-75 174.9 174.90 62.85
Jun-75 173.2 173.20 65.63
Jul-75 161.6 141.92 142.66 18.94 33.95
Aug-75 176.8 143.40 144.80 32.00 29.82
Sep-75 154.9 146.21 146.33 8.57 22.27
Oct-75 159.3 146.45 147.99 11.31 29.04
Nov-75 136 149.53 149.77 -13.77 -17.48
Dec-75 108.3 150.01 150.46 -42.16 -35.87
Jan-76 109.1 150.91 150.93 -41.83 -18.34
Feb-76 130 150.95 149.73 -19.73 -17.38
Mar-76 137.5 148.50 148.23 -10.73 18.64
Apr-76 172.7 147.97 147.68 25.03 41.73
May-76 180.7 147.38 146.98 33.73 62.85
Jun-76 184 146.57 146.18 37.83 65.63
Jul-76 162.1 145.78 145.63 16.47 33.95
Aug-76 147.4 145.48 144.05 3.35 29.82
Sep-76 148.5 142.63 142.95 5.55 22.27
Oct-76 152.3 143.27 143.40 8.90 29.04
Nov-76 126.2 143.54 143.12 -16.92 -17.48
Dec-76 98.9 142.69 141.83 -42.93 -35.87
Jan-77 105.4 140.98 140.92 -35.52 -18.34
Feb-77 95.8 140.86 141.41 -45.61 -17.38
Mar-77 145.2 141.97 141.93 3.27 18.64
Apr-77 176 141.90 142.76 33.24 41.73
May-77 170.5 143.63 143.54 26.96 62.85
Jun-77 163.4 143.45 144.35 19.05 65.63
Jul-77 160.7 145.25 145.68 15.03 33.95
Aug-77 160.7 146.10 146.58 14.13 29.82
Sep-77 147.7 147.05 147.29 0.41 22.27
Oct-77 173 147.53 148.04 24.96 29.04
Nov-77 124.1 148.55 149.22 -25.12 -17.48
Dec-77 120.5 149.89 150.73 -30.23 -35.87
Jan-78 115.6 151.58 152.05 -36.45 -18.34
Feb-78 107.2 152.52 152.65 -45.45 -17.38
Mar-78 151 152.78 153.04 -2.04 18.64
Apr-78 188.2 153.30 152.54 35.66 41.73
May-78 186.6 151.78 151.43 35.17 62.85
Jun-78 183.6 151.08 150.76 32.84 65.63
 Jul-78 172 150.45 150.01 21.99 33.95
Aug-78 163.8 149.58 149.39 14.41 29.82
Sep-78 154 149.21 148.80 5.20 22.27
Oct-78 154.8 148.39 147.19 7.61 29.04
Nov-78 115.6 145.98 144.79 -29.19 -17.48
Dec-78 113 143.60 142.74 -29.74 -35.87
Jan-79 105.1 141.88 141.06 -35.96 -18.34
Feb-79 102.8 140.24 139.40 -36.60 -17.38
Mar-79 141.2 138.56 138.48 2.72 18.64
Apr-79 159.3 138.39 137.74 21.56 41.73
May-79 158 137.08 137.22 20.78 62.85
Jun-79 162.9 137.35 136.20 26.70 65.63
Jul-79 152.4 135.05 133.93 18.47 33.95
Aug-79 143.6 132.81 132.28 11.32 29.82
Sep-79 152 131.76 131.24 20.76 22.27
Oct-79 139.1 130.73 130.47 8.63 29.04
Nov-79 118.8 130.22 129.48 -10.68 -17.48
Dec-79 85.4 128.73 128.20 -42.80 -35.87
Jan-80 78.2 127.68 127.03 -48.83 -18.34
Feb-80 90.2 126.39 126.11 -35.91 -17.38
Mar-80 128.8 125.83 124.95 3.85 18.64
Apr-80 153.2 124.08 123.92 29.28 41.73
May-80 140.2 123.75 123.51 16.69 62.85
Jun-80 150.2 123.27 123.63 26.57 65.63
Jul-80 137 124.00 124.91 12.09 33.95
Aug-80 136.8 125.83 125.64 11.16 29.82
Sep-80 131.1 125.46 125.00 6.10 22.27
Oct-80 135.1 124.54 123.55 11.55 29.04
Nov-80 113 122.56 122.20 -9.20 -17.48
Dec-80 94.2 121.85 121.56 -27.36 -35.87
Jan-81 100.1 121.27 121.17 -21.07 -18.34
Feb-81 85.8 121.08 120.48 -34.68 -17.38
Mar-81 117.8 119.88 118.97 -1.17 18.64
Apr-81 129.4 118.06 117.86 11.54 41.73
May-81 131.7 117.66 131.70 62.85
Jun-81 143.2 143.20 65.63
Jul-81 134.7 134.70 33.95
Aug-81 122.4 122.40 29.82
Sep-81 109.3 109.30 22.27
Oct-81 130.3 130.30 29.04
 E
Irregular Y
(6) = (1) - (5) 250.00
109.64 91.30
113.68 96.30
115.96 134.60 200.00
94.07 135.80
112.05 174.90
107.57 173.20 150.00
-15.01 161.60
2.17 176.80
100.00
-13.70 154.90
-17.72 159.30
3.71 136.00 50.00
-6.29 108.30
-23.49 109.10
-2.34 130.00 0.00

Jan-75

May-75
Jul-75
Sep-75
Nov-75

Mar-76

Jul-76
Sep-76
Nov-76
Mar-75

Jan-76

May-76

Jan-77
Mar-77
-29.38 137.50
-16.70 172.70
-29.12 180.70 -50.00
-27.80 184.00
-17.48 162.10
-26.47 147.40 -100.00
-16.72 148.50
-20.14 152.30
0.56 126.20
-7.06 98.90
-17.18 105.40
-28.23 95.80
-15.38 145.20
-8.49 176.00
-35.89 170.50
-46.58 163.40
-18.93 160.70
-15.70 160.70
-21.86 147.70
-4.08 173.00
-7.64 124.10
5.64 120.50
-18.11 115.60
-28.06 107.20
-20.68 151.00
-6.07 188.20
-27.68 186.60
-32.79 183.60
-11.97 172.00
-15.41 163.80
-17.07 154.00
-21.42 154.80
-11.71 115.60
6.13 113.00
-17.62 105.10
-19.22 102.80
-15.92 141.20
-20.17 159.30
-42.06 158.00
-38.93 162.90
-15.48 152.40
-18.51 143.60
-1.51 152.00
-20.41 139.10
6.80 118.80
-6.93 85.40
-30.50 78.20
-18.53 90.20
-14.80 128.80
-12.45 153.20
-46.16 140.20
-39.06 150.20
-21.87 137.00
-18.66 136.80
-16.17 131.10
-17.49 135.10
8.27 113.00
8.51 94.20
-2.73 100.10
-17.29 85.80
-19.81 117.80
-30.19 129.40
68.85 131.70
77.57 143.20
100.75 134.70
92.58 122.40
87.03 109.30
101.26 130.30
 Mar-76
May-76
Jul-76
Sep-76
Nov-76
Jan-77
Mar-77
May-77
Jul-77
Sep-77

Y
Nov-77
Jan-78

TC
Mar-78
May-78

S
Jul-78
Sep-78

E
Nov-78
Jan-79
Mar-79
May-79
Jul-79
Sep-79
Nov-79
Jan-80
Mar-80
May-80
Jul-80
Sep-80
Nov-80
Jan-81
Mar-81
May-81
 Jul-80
Sep-80
Nov-80
Jan-81
Mar-81
May-81
Jul-81
Sep-81
Seasonal Index jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug
1975 91.30 96.30 134.60 135.80 174.90 173.20 18.94 32.00
1976 -41.83 -19.73 -10.73 25.03 33.73 37.83 16.47 3.35
1977 -35.52 -45.61 3.27 33.24 26.96 19.05 15.03 14.13
1978 -36.45 -45.45 -2.04 35.66 35.17 32.84 21.99 14.41
1979 -35.96 -36.60 2.72 21.56 20.78 26.70 18.47 11.32
1980 -48.83 -35.91 3.85 29.28 16.69 26.57 12.09 11.16
1981 -21.07 -34.68 -1.17 11.54 131.70 143.20 134.70 122.40
-18.34 -17.38 18.64 41.73 62.85 65.63 33.95 29.82
sep oct nov dec
8.57 11.31 -13.77 -42.16
5.55 8.90 -16.92 -42.93
0.41 24.96 -25.12 -30.23
5.20 7.61 -29.19 -29.74
20.76 8.63 -10.68 -42.80
6.10 11.55 -9.20 -27.36
109.30 130.30
22.27 29.04 -17.48 -35.87
 Y TC
Time AIRLINE 12MA Centered de-trended Seasonal Indeks
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (1) / (3) (5)
Jan-49 112 0.911
Feb-49 118 0.903
Mar-49 132 1.032
Apr-49 129 0.986
May-49 121 0.979
Jun-49 135 1.099
Jul-49 148 126.67 126.79 1.167 1.200
Aug-49 148 126.92 127.25 1.163 1.188
Sep-49 136 127.58 127.96 1.063 1.056
Oct-49 119 128.33 128.58 0.925 0.920
Nov-49 104 128.83 129.00 0.806 0.798
Dec-49 118 129.17 129.75 0.909 0.905
Jan-50 115 130.33 131.25 0.876 0.911
Feb-50 126 132.17 133.08 0.947 0.903
Mar-50 141 134.00 134.92 1.045 1.032
Apr-50 135 135.83 136.42 0.990 0.986
May-50 125 137.00 137.42 0.910 0.979
Jun-50 149 137.83 138.75 1.074 1.099
Jul-50 170 139.67 140.92 1.206 1.200
Aug-50 170 142.17 143.17 1.187 1.188
Sep-50 158 144.17 145.71 1.084 1.056
Oct-50 133 147.25 148.42 0.896 0.920
Nov-50 114 149.58 151.54 0.752 0.798
Dec-50 140 153.50 154.71 0.905 0.905
Jan-51 145 155.92 157.13 0.923 0.911
Feb-51 150 158.33 159.54 0.940 0.903
Mar-51 178 160.75 161.83 1.100 1.032
Apr-51 163 162.92 164.13 0.993 0.986
May-51 172 165.33 166.67 1.032 0.979
Jun-51 178 168.00 169.08 1.053 1.099
Jul-51 199 170.17 171.25 1.162 1.200
Aug-51 199 172.33 173.58 1.146 1.188
Sep-51 184 174.83 175.46 1.049 1.056
Oct-51 162 176.08 176.83 0.916 0.920
Nov-51 146 177.58 178.04 0.820 0.798
Dec-51 166 178.50 180.17 0.921 0.905
Jan-52 171 181.83 183.13 0.934 0.911
Feb-52 180 184.42 186.21 0.967 0.903
Mar-52 193 188.00 189.04 1.021 1.032
Apr-52 181 190.08 191.29 0.946 0.986
May-52 183 192.50 193.58 0.945 0.979
Jun-52 218 194.67 195.83 1.113 1.099
 Jul-52 230 197.00 198.04 1.161 1.200
Aug-52 242 199.08 199.75 1.212 1.188
Sep-52 209 200.42 202.21 1.034 1.056
Oct-52 191 204.00 206.25 0.926 0.920
Nov-52 172 208.50 210.42 0.817 0.798
Dec-52 194 212.33 213.38 0.909 0.905
Jan-53 196 214.42 215.83 0.908 0.911
Feb-53 196 217.25 218.50 0.897 0.903
Mar-53 236 219.75 220.92 1.068 1.032
Apr-53 235 222.08 222.92 1.054 0.986
May-53 229 223.75 224.08 1.022 0.979
Jun-53 243 224.42 224.71 1.081 1.099
Jul-53 264 225.00 225.33 1.172 1.200
Aug-53 272 225.67 225.33 1.207 1.188
Sep-53 237 225.00 224.96 1.054 1.056
Oct-53 211 224.92 224.58 0.940 0.920
Nov-53 180 224.25 224.46 0.802 0.798
Dec-53 201 224.67 225.54 0.891 0.905
Jan-54 204 226.42 228.00 0.895 0.911
Feb-54 188 229.58 230.46 0.816 0.903
Mar-54 235 231.33 232.25 1.012 1.032
Apr-54 227 233.17 233.92 0.970 0.986
May-54 234 234.67 235.63 0.993 0.979
Jun-54 264 236.58 237.75 1.110 1.099
Jul-54 302 238.92 240.50 1.256 1.200
Aug-54 293 242.08 243.96 1.201 1.188
Sep-54 259 245.83 247.17 1.048 1.056
Oct-54 229 248.50 250.25 0.915 0.920
Nov-54 203 252.00 253.50 0.801 0.798
Dec-54 229 255.00 257.13 0.891 0.905
Jan-55 242 259.25 261.83 0.924 0.911
Feb-55 233 264.42 266.67 0.874 0.903
Mar-55 267 268.92 271.13 0.985 1.032
Apr-55 269 273.33 275.21 0.977 0.986
May-55 270 277.08 278.50 0.969 0.979
Jun-55 315 279.92 281.96 1.117 1.099
Jul-55 364 284.00 285.75 1.274 1.200
Aug-55 347 287.50 289.33 1.199 1.188
Sep-55 312 291.17 293.25 1.064 1.056
Oct-55 274 295.33 297.17 0.922 0.920
Nov-55 237 299.00 301.00 0.787 0.798
Dec-55 278 303.00 305.46 0.910 0.905
Jan-56 284 307.92 309.96 0.916 0.911
Feb-56 277 312.00 314.42 0.881 0.903
Mar-56 317 316.83 318.63 0.995 1.032
Apr-56 313 320.42 321.75 0.973 0.986
May-56 318 323.08 324.50 0.980 0.979
Jun-56 374 325.92 327.08 1.143 1.099
Jul-56 413 328.25 1.200
Aug-56 405 1.188
Sep-56 355 1.056
Oct-56 306 0.920
Nov-56 271 0.798
Dec-56 306 0.905
Error Y
(6) = (1)/(5)
122.96 112
130.67 118
127.88 132
130.80 129
123.62 121
122.85 135
123.36 148
124.58 148
128.74 136
129.34 119
130.33 104
130.35 118
126.25 115
139.53 126
136.60 141
136.88 135
127.71 125
135.59 149
141.70 170
143.10 170
149.56 158
144.56 133
142.86 114
154.65 140
159.19 145
166.11 150
172.44 178
165.27 163
175.73 172
161.98 178
165.87 199
167.51 199
174.18 184
176.08 162
182.96 146
183.37 166
187.73 171
199.33 180
186.97 193
183.52 181
186.97 183
198.38 218
191.71 230
203.71 242
197.84 209
207.60 191
215.54 172
214.30 194
215.18 196
217.05 196
228.63 236
238.27 235
233.96 229
221.13 243
220.05 264
228.96 272
224.35 237
229.33 211
225.56 180
222.03 201
223.96 204
208.19 188
227.66 235
230.16 227
239.07 234
240.24 264
251.72 302
246.64 293
245.17 259
248.90 229
254.38 203
252.96 229
265.68 242
258.02 233
258.66 267
272.75 269
275.85 270
286.65 315
303.40 364
292.09 347
295.34 312
297.81 274
296.99 237
307.09 278
311.79 284
306.75 277
307.10 317
317.36 313
324.89 318
340.34 374
344.24 413
340.91 405
336.05 355
332.59 306
339.60 271
338.02 306
Seasonal I jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep
1949 1.17 1.16 1.06
1950 0.88 0.95 1.05 0.99 0.91 1.07 1.21 1.19 1.08
1951 0.92 0.94 1.10 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.16 1.15 1.05
1952 0.93 0.97 1.02 0.95 0.95 1.11 1.16 1.21 1.03
1953 0.91 0.90 1.07 1.05 1.02 1.08 1.17 1.21 1.05
1954 0.89 0.82 1.01 0.97 0.99 1.11 1.26 1.20 1.05
1955 0.92 0.87 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.12 1.27 1.20 1.06
1956 0.916252 0.880997 0.9949 0.972805 0.979969 1.143439
0.91 0.90 1.03 0.99 0.98 1.10 1.20 1.19 1.06
oct nov dec
0.93 0.81 0.91
0.90 0.75 0.90
0.92 0.82 0.92
0.93 0.82 0.91
0.94 0.80 0.89
0.92 0.80 0.89
0.92 0.79 0.91

0.92 0.80 0.91