490 517 PDF

MODELIRANJE PROJEKTNIH
RIZIKA U RAZVOJU PROJEKTA

VJETROELEKTRANE
MODELING PROJECT RISKS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND POWER
PLANT PROJECT
Mr. sc. Filip MuæiniÊ, KonËar-KET,
Fallerovo πetaliπte 22, 10000 Zagreb, Hrvatska
Prof. dr. sc. Davor ©krlec, SveuËiliπte u Zagrebu,
Fakultet elektrotehnike i raËunarstva,
Unska 3, 10000 Zagreb, Hrvatska
Projekt izgradnje vjetroelektrane je viπegodiπnji sloæeni projekt, tijekom kojega su sve

zainteresirane strane izloæene brojnim rizicima od kojih su neki dovoljno znaËajni da mogu
upropastiti projekt. U radu je predoËena metodologija modeliranja projektnih rizika u razvoju
projekta vjetroelektrane uvaæavajuÊi specifiËne okolnosti u Republici Hrvatskoj. Primijenjena
metoda analize rizika pripada skupini probablistiËkih metoda koje koriste Monte Carlo
simulacijsku analizu. Detaljno su opisani identificirani rizici i naËin provoenja kvalitativne
i kvantitativne analize rizika. Na primjeru analize rizika projekata vjetroelektrane 20x1 MW
objaπnjeni su i ugraeni u model ekonomski kriteriji za donoπenje odluka. Model za analizu
rizika projekata vjetroelektrana u Republici Hrvatskoj izraen je u Microsoft Excelu i namijenjen
je donositeljima odluka i voditeljima projekata. Iako je referentni sluËaj u modelu projekt
vjetroelektrane u hrvatskim uvjetima, moguÊe ga je prilagoditi za bilo koje træiπte.
The construction of a wind power plant is a complex project that requires many years, during
which time all the interested parties are exposed to numerous risks, including some with
potentially devastating consequences. In this article, a methodology for modeling project risks
in the development of a wind power plant project is presented, taking into account the specific
circumstances in the Republic of Croatia. The applied method of risk analysis belongs to the
group of probability methods that use Monte Carlo simulation analysis. The identified risks and
manner of conducting qualitative and quantitative risk analysis are described in detail. Using
the example of the risk analysis of a project for a 20x1 MW wind power plant, the economic
criteria for decision making are explained and incorporated in a model. This risk analysis model
for the wind power plant projects in the Republic of Croatia is constructed in Microsoft Excel
and intended for decision makers and project developers. Although the reference case in the
model is wind power plant project in Croatia, it can be adapted to any market whatsoever.
KljuËne rijeËi: Monte Carlo analiza, projektni rizici, vjetroelektrana
Key words: Monte Carlo analysis, project risks, wind power plant
MuæiniÊ, F., ©krlec, D., Modeliranje projektnih rizika u..., Energija, god. 56(2007), br. 4., str. 490 ∑ 517
MuæiniÊ, F., ©krlec, D., Modeling Project Risks in..., Energija, vol. 56(2007), No. 4, pp. 490∑517 490
1 UVOD 1 INTRODUCTION
Hrvatska ima znatne prirodne potencijale za razvoj Croatia has significant natural potentials for the
projekata vjetroelektrana, a neke procjene govore o development of wind power plant projects. Some
minimalno 400 MW komercijalno isplativih vjetro- estimates speak of a minimum of 400 MW of com-
elektrana [1]. Hrvatska je u procesu pridruæivanja mercially profitable wind power plants [1]. Croatia
Europskoj uniji, i prilagoavanje se dogaa na is in the process of accession to the European
svim razinama pa tako i u elektroenergetici. Union and adjustments are occurring at all levels,
PoveÊanje udjela obnovljivih izvora energije u including the electrical energy supply. The quota
hrvatskom elektroenergetskom sustavu odreeno that has been established for increasing the per-
je kvotom od 5,8 % potroπnje do 2010. godine. centage of renewable energy sources in the Croatian
Prema izraËunu Ministarstva gospodarstva, rada electrical energy system is 5,8 % of total consump-
i poduzetniπtva taj bi udio 2010. godine iznosio tion by the year 2010. According to the calcula-
1 139 GWh. Radi se samo o prvoj fazi izgradnje tions of the Ministry of the Economy, Labor and
nakon koje Êe se planirati daljnje poveÊanje. Entrepreneurship, this percentage would amount to
BuduÊi da trenutaËno u Hrvatskoj gotovo da i 1 139 GWh in the year 2010. This concerns only
nema obnovljivih izvora energije, pitanje je hoÊe the first phase of construction, after which further
li se tako kratak rok dostiÊi, ali se zasigurno moæe increases are planned. Since currently there are
oËekivati intenziviranje aktivnosti u iduÊih 5 − 10 practically no renewable energy sources in Croatia,
godina. Tehnologija koriπtenja energije vjetra kao it is a question whether this goal will be achieved
najrazvijenija iz ovog spektra veÊ sada preuzima during such a short period. Nonetheless, intensi-
vodeÊe mjesto u Hrvatskoj, πto se oËituje u velikom fication of activities can certainly be anticipated
interesu za izgradnju vjetroelektrana u posljednjih during the next five to ten years. The technology
tri do Ëetiri godine. Potencijalni investitori su for using wind energy as the most developed of this
pokrenuli veliki broj mjerenja vjetrenih prilika spectrum has already assumed the lead in Croatia,
na moguÊim lokacijama, a prema nadleænim as evident from the great interest in constructing
tijelima su upuÊeni brojni zahtjevi za prikljuËkom wind power plants during the past three to four
vjetroelektrana. U 2007. godini u Hrvatskoj je years. Potential investors have instigated large
stupila na snagu zakonska regulativa (potrebni numbers of measurements of the wind conditions
zakonski podakti) koji omoguÊuju funkcioniranje in potential locations and have submitted numer-
træiπta obnovljivih izvora energije. ous applications to the authorized agencies for the
connection of wind power plants. In the year 2007,
Projekt izgradnje vjetroelektrane je viπegodiπnji legal regulations went into effect in Croatia (energy
sloæeni projekt tijekom kojega su sve zainte- bylaws) that make it possible for the renewable
resirane strane izloæene brojnim rizicima od kojih energy sources market to function.
su neki dovoljno znaËajni da mogu upropastiti
projekt. Procjenjivati vrijeme trajanja faza The construction of a wind power plant is a complex
projekta i troπkove na temelju osjeÊaja nije samo project that requires many years during which time
neprofesionalno, veÊ i opasno. Analiza rizika je all the interested parties are exposed to numerous
potrebna da bi investitor i voditelj projekta πto risks, including some with potentially devastating
bolje predvidjeli i izbjegli buduÊe probleme. consequences. Estimating the duration of the proj-
ect phases and costs on a subjective basis is not
only unprofessional but also dangerous. Risk analy-
sis is necessary in order for the investor and project
developer to anticipate and avoid future problems
to the greatest possible extent.
2 INTERESNE STRANE 2 INTERESTED PARTIES AND
I ODNOSI NA TRÆI©TU RELATIONSHIPS ON THE WIND
VJETROENERGETIKE ENERGETICS MARKET
S aspekta projekata vjetroelektrana postoje tri From the aspect of wind power plant projects, there
kljuËne kategorije aktivnosti. Interesne strane u are three key areas of activities. The interested par-
projektu vjetroelektrane ponekad su specijalizirane ties in a wind power plant project are sometimes
za pojedinu djelatnost, a ponekad objedinjuju specialized in individual activities and may encom-
nekoliko njih: pass several of them:
∑ voditelj projekta (developer) ∑ ima glavnu ulogu ∑ the project developer ∑ has the main role. This
u projektu. To je poduzeÊe koje razvija projekte. is the enterprise that develops the project. The
Njihova aktivnost obuhvaÊa organiziranje developer’s activity includes the organization of
projekta od traæenja i odabira lokacije te the project from the search for and selection of a
mjerenja do puπtanja u pogon i odræavanja. location and measurement to placing the plant in
BuduÊi da je træiπte vjetroenergetike relativno operation and maintenance. Since the wind en-
novo (ne samo za Hrvatske pojmove), voditelji ergy market is relatively new, not only in Croatian
projekta se najËeπÊe bave i traæenjem te terms, developers most often are also engaged in
privlaËenjem investitora, organiziranjem inves- seeking and attracting investors, the organization
ticije (u smislu pokretanja kredita i sl.), a rjee of investment (in the sense of initiating loans
i eksploatacijom. Na njima ujedno leæi i odluka etc.), and less frequently in exploitation. They
o odabiru opreme (proizvoaËa). Voditelja also have the responsibility of deciding upon the
projekta u Europi i svijetu ima mnogo, a veÊina choice of equipment (manufacturers). There are
europskih poduzeÊa je prisutna na hrvatskom many developers in Europe and the world, and
træiπtu kroz agente ili poduzeÊa kÊeri, the majority of European enterprises are present
∑ proizvoaËi opreme ∑ uglavnom su ukljuËeni on the Croatian market through agents or subsid-
u projekte posredno, buduÊi da se najËeπÊe iaries,
specijaliziraju za proizvodnju. Ponekad se ∑ equipment manufacturers ∑ mainly have indirect
bave i djelatnostima voditelja projekta, iako involvement in projects, since they are most
je to veÊinom vezano uz testiranje opreme often specialized in production. Sometimes
(prototipa koje nitko neÊe kupiti prije negoli se they are also engaged in the activities of proj-
dokaæu u praksi). Ako se proizvodno poduzeÊe ect developer, although in the majority of cases
odluËi za bavljenje projektima, najËeπÊe this is connected with the testing of equipment
uspostavlja partnerski odnos sa zasebnim (prototypes that no one will buy before they are
poduzeÊem − voditeljem projekta, demonstrated in practice). If a manufacturing
∑ investitori ∑ vjetroenergetika veÊinom privlaËi enterprise decides to become engaged in proj-
privatni kapital, πto znaËi da su investitori ects, it most often establishes a partnership with
razliËiti i ne moraju biti vezani za energetiku. a special enterprise − a project developer,
UobiËajeni vidovi financiranja, kao πto su ∑ investors ∑ can be varied and need not be con-
krediti poslovnih banaka, funkcioniraju nected with energetics, since wind power plants
i u projektima vjetroelektrana, ali banke mostly attract private capital. The customary
nisu uvijek spremne pratiti ove projekte na aspects of financing, such as loans from com-
odgovarajuÊi naËin. U zemljama u kojima mercial banks, also function in wind power plant
vjetroenergetika nije nova djelatnost postoje projects but banks are not always prepared to
poduzeÊa koja su se specijalizirala upravo follow such projects in a suitable manner. In
za financiranje projekata u vjetroenergetici countries where wind energy is not a new ac-
i nude vrlo specifiËne financijske proizvode tivity, there are enterprises that are specialized
prilagoene toj djelatnosti. VeÊina projekata precisely in financing wind energy plant projects
se barem parcijalno financira kreditima and offer very specific financial products that are
financijskih institucija pa su one nezaobilazne adapted to this activity. The majority of projects
kada se govori o investitorima. BuduÊi da are at least partially financed by loans from fi-
se radi o projektima od politiËkog i javnog nance institutions, which are unavoidable when
interesa (posebno u Europi), a koji ne bi speaking of investors. Since these are projects of
zaæivjeli bez poticaja, razliËite dræavne i political and public interest, especially in Europe,
meunarodne institucije su u velikoj mjeri that would not exist without incentives, various
ukljuËene u financiranje (Europska banka countries and international institutions are in-
za obnovu i razvitak − EBRD, Europska volved in financing them to a great extent (the
investicijska banka − EIB, Fond za globalnu European Bank for Research and Development −
zaπtitu okoliπa − GEF). EBRD, the European Investment Bank − EIB, the
Global Environmental Facility − GEF).
493 MuæiniÊ, F., ©krlec, D., Modeliranje projektnih rizika u..., Energija, god. 56(2007), br. 4., str. 490 ∑ 517
MuæiniÊ, F., ©krlec, D., Modeling Project Risks in..., Energija, vol. 56(2007), No. 4, pp. 490∑517
Osim navedenih kategorija, postoji velik broj In addition to the above categories, there are a
poduzeÊa koja se bave djelatnostima koje nisu large number of enterprises engaged in activities
izravno vezane za projekt izgradnje vjetroelektrane that are not directly connected with a project of
kao πto su proizvodnja mjerne opreme, mjerenje constructing a wind power plant, such as the manu-
vjetropotencijala, konzultantske aktivnosti, stru- facture of measuring devices, the measurement of
Ëne analize itd. wind potentials, consulting activities, professional
analyses etc.
3 ANALIZA RIZIKA
3 RISK ANALYSIS
U posljednjih nekoliko desetljeÊa na træiπtu je porasla
potreba za upravljanjem rizicima (risk management). In the past several decades, the need for risk man-
Za razliku od teorije odluËivanja, upravljanje rizicima agement has grown on the market. Unlike the theory
usredotoËeno je na prouËavanje rizika kao ulaznih of decision making, risk management is focused on
podataka za proces donoπenja odluke. Upravljanje studying risks as input data for the decision making
rizicima je dio upravljanja projektom (project process. Risk management is a part of project man-
management). agement.
Postoje brojne definicije upravljanja rizicima od kojih There are numerous definitions of risk management,
je za potrebe ovog rada najprihvatljivija sljedeÊa: of which the following is the most suitable for this ar-
Upravljanje rizicima je korporativni i sistematski ticle: Risk management is a corporate and systematic
proces za procjenu i utjecanje na rizike i njihove process for assessing and addressing the impact of
posljedice na ekonomski najprihvatljiviji naËin, πto risks in a cost-effective way and having staff with the
ukljuËuje adekvatno obrazovane uposlenike [2]. appropriate skills to identify and asses the potential
for risks to arise [2].
Odreena vrsta upravljanja rizicima odvija se u
svakoj organizaciji, bez obzira na njezinu veliËinu ili A specific type of risk management occurs in every
djelokrug. Rizici su sastavni dio svakog poslovanja i organization, regardless of its magnitude and scope.
projekta pa ih je nemoguÊe zanemariti, ali u veÊini Risks are an integral part of every operation and proj-
sluËajeva s njima se ne postupa organizirano. ect, which are impossible to ignore, but in the majority
Navedena definicija podrazumijeva metodiËno of cases are not approached in an organized manner.
upravljanje rizicima, nasuprot nasumiËnom rjeπa- The cited definition implies methodical risk manage-
vanju problema i upravljanju rizicima kada se oni ment, the opposite of random problem solving and
veÊ manifestiraju. Organizirano upravljanje rizicima risk management when the risks are already mani-
obiËno se sastoji od sljedeÊih koraka [1] i [3]: fested. Organized risk management generally consists
of the following steps, [1] and [3]:
− identifikacija rizika,
− analiza rizika, − risk identification,
− odreivanje reakcija na rizike, − risk analysis,
− promatranje rizika, − risk response,
− izvjeπÊivanje. − risk monitoring, and
− reporting.
Navedeni popis nije konaËan i pojedini se dijelovi
manje ili viπe razlaæu, ovisno o kvaliteti upravljanja This list is not final and individual parts more or less
rizicima i potrebama organizacije. Ovaj se rad vary, depending upon the quality of the risk manage-
primarno bavi analizom rizika pa su ostali dijelovi ment and the organizational requirements. This article
procesa zanemareni. is primarily concerned with risk analysis, so that other
parts of the process are neglected.
Analiza rizika moæe biti viπe ili manje sloæen
postupak. NaËelno ju je moguÊe podijeliti na Risk analysis can be a more or less complex proce-
kvalitativnu i kvantitativnu analizu, iako navedene dure. In principle, it can be divided into qualitative
etape variraju u detaljima, ovisno o odabranoj metodi and quantitative analyses, although these stages vary
analize rizika. in the details, depending upon the selected method
of risk analysis.
3.1 Odabrana metoda analize rizika 3.1 The selected method of risk analysis
Analiza rizika je sloæen proces koji je, ovisno Risk analysis is a complex process that, depending
o potrebama, moguÊe organizirati na razliËite upon the requirements, can be organized in various
naËine. Postoje brojne institucije koje se bave ways. There are numerous institutions that are engaged
standardizacijom upravljanja i analize rizika. in standardization of risk management and analysis.
Najraπirenije metode analize rizika su [3] i [4]: The most widespread risk analysis methods are [3]
and [4]:
1) testiranje ekstremnih dogaaja (stress testing),
2) testiranje scenarija, 1) stress testing (the testing of extreme events) ,
3) metoda srednji-optimistiËni-pesimistiËni sluËaj, 2) scenario analysis,
4) analiza osjetljivosti, 3) the mean-optimistic-pessimistic case method,
5) Value at Risk (VaR metoda), 4) sensitivity analysis,
6) standard AS/NZS 4360 (Australija i Novi 5) the Value at Risk (VaR method),
Zeland), 6) the AS/NZS 4360 standard (Australia and New
7) metoda PMBOK (Project Management Body Zealand),
of Knowledge, Project Management Institute ∑ 7) Project Management Body of Knowledge ∑
PMI, SAD). PMBOK, Project Management Institute ∑ PMI,
USA.
Navedene metode rangirane su od jednostavnih od
1) do 4) prema sloæenijima od 5) do 7). Sloæene The above methods are ranked from the simplest, 1)
metode mogu sadræavati i neke jednostavne, kao to 4), to the more complex, 5) to 7). The complex
fazu postupka analize rizika. methods may also contain some simple ones, as a
phase in the risk analysis procedure.
Cilj moderne analize rizika jest dati donositelju
odluke preciznu informaciju sadræanu u gustoÊi The goal of modern risk analysis is to provide the deci-
razdiobe vjerojatnosti kriterijske varijable. Ovaj sion maker with precise information contained in the
pristup je suprotan tradicionalnim metodama kod density of the probability distribution of the criterion
kojih se odluka donosi na temelju pojedinaËne variable. This approach is contrary to the traditional
procjene, kao πto je srednji-pesimistiËni-opti- methods, with which decisions are made on the basis
mistiËni sluËaj. Nadalje, metoda analize rizika mora of individual assessments, such as the mean-pessi-
omoguÊiti proces rigoroznog i logiËkog raËunalnog mistic-optimistic case method. Furthermore, the risk
modeliranja procesa kako bi se dobila razdioba analysis method must facilitate a rigorous and logical
vjerojatnosti kriterijske varijable. computer modeling process in order to obtain the
probability distribution of the criterion variable.
Osnovni koraci odabranog procesa su:
The basic steps in the selected process are as follows:
1) identificirati kriterijsku varijablu i relevantne
varijable koje na nju utjeËu, 1) to identify the criterion variable and relevant vari-
2) opisati odreivanje razdiobe vjerojatnosti za ables that affects it,
relevantne varijable, 2) to describe the determination of the probability
3) ispitati i ustanoviti veze (potencijalne zavis- distribution of the relevant variables,
nosti) izmeu pojedinih varijabli, 3) to investigate and determine the connection (po-
4) ocijeniti razdiobe vjerojatnosti za sve relevantne tential dependence) among individual variables,
varijable koje utjeËu na kriterijsku varijablu, 4) to assess the probability distributions for all the
5) odrediti razdiobu vjerojatnosti kriterijske varijable relevant variables that affect the criterion vari-
koristeÊi Monte Carlo tehniku, able,
6) evaluirati projekt koristeÊi informacije sadræane 5) to determine the probability distribution of the cri-
u razdiobi vjerojatnosti kriterijske varijable. terion variable, using the Monte Carlo technique,
6) to evaluate a project using information contained in
Prema podjeli analize rizika na kvalitativnu i kvanti- the probability distribution of the criterion variable.
tativnu analizu, koraci od 1) do 3) predstavljaju
kvalitativnu analizu rizika, a 4) i 5) kvantitativnu. According to the division of risk analyses into quali-
tative and quantitative analyses, steps 1) to 3) rep-
Slika 1 daje shematski prikaz metode odabrane za resent qualitative risk analysis and steps 4) and 5)
analizu rizika projekata vjetroelektrana u Hrvatskoj. represent quantitative.
Figure 1 provides a schematic presentation of the

method chosen for the risk analysis of the wind
power plant projects in Croatia.
Slika 1
Prikaz odabrane
metode za analizu
rizika Identifikacija Kvalitativna Kvantitativna Analiza
rizika analiza rizika analiza rizika rezultata
Figure 1
Presentation of the
method chosen for the
risk analysis
utvrivanje svih kategorizacija odreivanje razdioba analiza razdioba
moguÊih rizika prema uzrocima vjerojatnosti pojedinih vjerojatnosti
u projektu rizika (ulaznih varijabli) kriterijskih varijabli
tehnika: tehnika: tehnika:

· brainstorming, · podjela prema · povijesni podaci
· analiza literature vrstama rizika · struËno miπljenje
kategorizacija prema odreivanje

pojavljivanju u projektu meuovisnosti
(koleracijska
matrica)
tehnika: izrada modela

· podjela prema
fazama projekta
odreivanje izlaznih tehnika:

(kriterijskih) varijabli · excel spreadsheet
(za evaluaciju projekta)
tehnika: modeliranje ∑
· RPI odreivanje razdiobe
· »SV vjerojatnosti izlaznih
· ISR varijabli
tehnika:
· Monte Carlo
simulacija
3.2 Kvalitativna analiza rizika 3.2 Qualitative risk analysis

Kvalitativna analiza rizika ukljuËuje razliËite Qualitative risk analysis includes various methods
metode odreivanja vaænosti identificiranih rizika for determining the importance of identified risks
i predstavlja pripremu za daljnju analizu, koliko and represents preparation for further analyses,
god detaljna ona bila. Sastavni dijelovi kvalitativne however complicated they may be. Assessments of
analize su procjena utjecaja rizika na projekt i the risk impact upon a project and the probability
procjena vjerojatnosti pojavljivanja rizika, ali i of risk occurrence, risk tolerance, costs etc. are
tolerancija na rizik, troπkovi itd. integral parts of qualitative analysis.
Kvalitativna analiza moæe ukljuËivati intervjuiranje Qualitative risk analysis can include the interviewing
struËnjaka i procjenu kvalitete dostupnih infor- of experts and assessment of the quality of available
macija o pojedinom riziku. Rezultate kvalitativne information on an individual risk. The results of
analize rizika potrebno je revidirati s vremenom, qualitative risk analysis must be revised with time,
buduÊi da se oni mijenjaju kako projekt odmiËe. since they change as a project progresses.
Risk Qualitative Quantitative Analysis
identification risk analysis risk analysis of the results
determination categorization determination of the analysis of the

of all the potential according to probability distributions probability
risks in the project causes of the individual risks distributions of
(input variables) the criterion
variables
technique: technique: technique:

· brainstorming · classification · historical data
· analysis of the according to · expert opinion
literature types of risks
categorization
according to occurrence
in the project determination
of correlation matrix
technique: devising the

· classification model
according to
project phases
determination of technique:
output (criterion) · excel spreadsheet
variables (for the
evaluation of the project)
techniuques: modeling ∑
· PP determining the
· NPV probability distribution
· IRR of the output variables
technique:
· Monte Carlo
simulation
Rezultati kvalitativne analize rizika mogu ukljuËi- The results of qualitative risk analysis can include
vati: the following:
− ljestvicu rizika poredanih po utjecaju i vjero- − a risk scale according to the impact and prob-
jatnosti pojavljivanja, ability of occurrence,
− grupiranje rizika prema kategorijama, bilo − grouping risks according to categories, either
da se radi o njihovim uzrocima ili moguÊim their causes or potential reactions to risks,
reakcijama na rizike, − a list of risks that require an urgent reaction, and
− listu rizika koji zahtijevaju hitnu reakciju, − monitoring changes in individual risks over
− praÊenje promjena pojedinih rizika s vreme- time.
nom.
The ways of classifying risk are indeed varied and
NaËini klasifikacije rizika su uistinu razliËiti i numerous. Classifications primarily depend upon
mnogobrojni. Podjele u prvom redu ovise o glediπtu the viewpoint from which the analysis is conducted.
s kojeg se vrπi analiza. Tako Êe se razvrstavanje i Thus, the classification and assessment of risks will
procijenjeni utjecaj rizika razlikovati za financijske differ for financial institutions, developers or, for
institucije, voditelje projekata ili npr. dræavnu example, the state administration. In this article,
administraciju. U ovom je radu prednost dana preference is given to the viewpoint which in the
glediπtu koje se u literaturi obiËno pridjeljuje literature is generally attributed to the project de-
voditelju projekta, ali se pojedini komercijalni veloper. However, individual commercial (investor)
(investitorski) utjecaji ne mogu zanemariti pa su influences cannot be neglected and are therefore
ukljuËeni. included.
Osnovna podjela rizika u projektima vjetroelektrana The basic risk classifications in wind power plant
je [5]: projects are as follows [5]:
− projektni, − project,
− træiπni, − market,
− tehniËki, − technical,
− politiËki, − political, and
− administrativni. − administrative.
Utjecaj veÊine navedenih rizika ovisi o spe- The impact of the majority of the cited risks depends
cifiËnostima projekta pa je ovdje dana dovoljno upon the specific characteristics of a project, so
opÊenita analiza. Ipak treba napomenuti da su that a fairly general analysis is provided here.
projektni i tehniËki rizici veÊinom zajedniËki svim Nonetheless, it is necessary to mention that project
projektima vjetroenergije, buduÊi da ne ovise o and technical risks are for the most part common to
politiËkoj situaciji ili ureenju træiπta. S druge all wind energy projects, since they do not depend
strane, træiπni i politiËki rizici se bitno razlikuju za upon the political situation or market organization.
pojedine zemlje. From the other side, market and political risks vary
considerably for individual countries.
NaËin podjele nije toliko vaæan koliko pravilno
razmjeπtanje rizika s obzirom na njihovo The manner of classification is not as important
pojavljivanje u projektu. Projekt vjetroelektrane as the correct allocation of risks, taking their oc-
moæe se podijeliti u Ëetiri faze [6]: currence in the project into account. A wind power
plant project can be divided into four phases [6]:
∑ pripremna faza,
∑ faza graenja, ∑ preparatory phase,
∑ faza eksploatacije, ∑ construction phase,
∑ faza razgradnje (de-commissioning). ∑ exploitation phase, and
∑ decommissioning phase.
Prihod nastaje samo u fazi eksploatacije. Ostale
faze ne donose prihod, veÊ naprotiv, samo troπkove Revenue only occurs during the exploitation phase.
i rizike. The other phases do not provide revenue but, on the
contrary, only costs and risks.
3.2.1 Rizici u pripremnoj fazi projekta

Planiranje, izrada investicijskog plana, financijska 3.2.1 Risks in the preparatory phase of a project
analiza, mjerenje vjetropotencijala je vjerojatno Planning, the devising of an investment plan,
najkompleksniji dio projekta i takoer dio u kojem financial analysis and the measurement of wind
se pojavljuje najveÊi broj rizika. To je logiËno potential probably represent the most complex part
buduÊi da se radi o prvoj fazi projekta, a rizike je of the project and also the part in which the largest
moguÊe izbjeÊi samo ako ih se od poËetka uzme u number of risks occur. This is logical, since it
obzir i analizira. concerns the first phase of a project, and risks can
only be avoided if they are taken into account and
Rizici u pripremnoj fazi projekta prikazani su u analyzed at the beginning.
tablici 1.
The risks in the preparatory phase of a project are
presented in Table 1.
Tablica 1 − Rizici u pripremnoj fazi projekta
Table 1 − Risks in the preparatory phase of a project
Etapa / Stage Aktivnosti / Activities Uzroci rizika / Causes of risk
Odabir lokacija Procjena vjetroprilika za potrebe odabira lokacija − kvaliteta i reference struËnjaka / quality and
za mjerenje / na kojima Êe se vrπiti mjerenja / Assesssment references of experts
Selection of of the wind conditions for the purposes of
a location for selecting locations at which measurements will
measurement be performed
Prostorno-planska dokumentacija / Physical − zaπtiÊenost zemljiπta (Ëesto u Republici Hrvatskoj) / land

planning documentation protection (frequently in the Republic of Croatia
− nemoguÊnost promjene prostornih planova (VE vjerojatno nije
predviena) / impossibility of changing physical plans (wind
energy plant is probably not anticipated)
Imovinsko-pravni odnosi / − negativan stav vlasnika prema planiranom projektu / negative

Property-legal relations attitude of the owners toward the planned project
− nerazumni zahtjevi za naknadom / unreasonable demands for
compensation
− nerijeπena imovinska situacija / unresolved property situation
Procjena elektroenergetskih prilika u mreæi / − loπe stanje mreæe / poor network condition
Assessment of electrical energy conditions in − udaljeno mjesto prikljuËka / distant connection point
the network − potreba za nadogradnjom mreæe / necessity for upgrading the network
Uspostavljanje odnosa sa lokalnom zajednicom / − protivljenje lokalne zajednice / opposition from the local community
Establishment of relations with the local − troπkovi zbog dobivanja suglasnosti / costs due to obtaining
community approvals
Ekoloπka pitanja / − postojanje zaπtiÊene flore i faune / the existence of protected flora
Ecological question and fauna
− posebni uvjeti pri gradnji na lokaciji / special conditions for
building on the location
Utvrivanje pristupaËnost lokacije / − nepostojanje putova koji bi zadovoljili potrebe izgradnje VE /

Determination of the accessibility of the the absence of routes that would meet the requirements for the
location construction of a wind power plant
Mjerenje Mjerenje vjetropotencijala / Measurement of the − nekvalitetno mjerenje / poor

vjetropotencijala / wind potential quality measurements
Measurement of
wind potential Analiza mjernih podataka / − nekvalitetna obrada podataka / poor quality
Analysis of the measured data data processin
Aktivnosti nakon Monitoring flore i faune / − moæe ustanoviti negativan utjecaj vjetroelektrane na floru
odabira lokacije, Monitoring flora and fauna i faunu / possibility of establishing the negative impact of the
a paralelno wind power plant on flora and fauna
s mjerenjem
vjetropotencijala / Izmjena prostornih planova / − nepredvidivo trajanje (minimalno 6 mjeseci) / unpredictable
Activity after Amendments to physical plans duration (a minimum of 6 months)
the selection − troπkove snosi investitor / investor bears the costs
of the location, − loπi odnosi s lokalnom samoupravom mogu rezultirati
parallel with the produæavanjem postupka / poor relations with the local self-
measurement of management can result in the prolongation of the procedure
the wind potential − greπke tijekom izmjene / errors during amendment
Istraæivanje moguÊnosti prikljuËka / − zahtjevi za financiranjem nadogradnje mreæe od strane
Investigation of potential connections operatora / requirements for financing the upgrading of the
network by the operator
Izrada SUO / Preparation of an environmental − moæe ustanoviti negativan utjecaj na okoliπ / possibility of
impact study determining a negative impact upon the environment
Odabir Odreivanje parametara vjetroagregata − krivi odabir bilo kojeg od parametara vjetroagregata moæe
vjetroagregata [7] / Determination of the wind turbine upropastiti projekt / incorrect choice of any of the parameters of
(opreme) / parameters [7] the wind turbine can devastate the project
Selection of a
wind turbine
Odabir dobavljaËa / Selection of supplier − odabir nekvalitetnog dobavljaËa / the selection of a poor
(equipment)
quality supplier
Ishoenje Izrada idejnog projekta / Preparation − uz kvalitetnog projektanta, rizici su minimalni / with a quality
lokacijske dozvole / of the preliminary design project designer, risks are minimal
Obtaining a − nuæna suradnja idejnog projektanta s izraivaËem SUO /
location permit necessary cooperation between the project designer and the
author of the environmental impact study
Procjena utjecaja na okoliπ / Assessment of − izmjena rasporeda vjetroagregata zbog vizualnog utjecaja na
environmental impact okoliπ (uzrokuje izmjene idejnog projekta) / change in the
placement of the wind turbines due to the visual impact on the
environment (requires changes in the preliminary design)
− zahtjevi za dopunjavanjem SUO (dugotrajno) / requirements for
amendments to the environmental impact study (long-term)
Rjeπavanje imovinsko-pravnih pitanja / − nemoguÊnost dobivanja prava graenja / the impossibility of

Resolution of property-legal questions obtaining building rights
− zahtjevi za nerazumnim naknadama / requirements for
unreasonable compensations
Podnoπenje zahtjeva za izdavanjem lokacijske − dugo trajanje postupka (minimalno 2 mjeseca) / long procedure
dozvole / Submitting application for obtaining (minimum of 2 months)
a location permit − zahtjevi za izmjenama idejnog projekta / requirements for
amending the preliminary design
− odbijanje izdavanja lokacijske dozvole / refusal to grant a
location permit
Ishoenje grae- Izrada glavnog projekta / − izmjene projekta ovisno o posebnim uvjetima (HEP, MUP,
vinske dozvole / Preparation of the main project Hrvatske vode, Hrvatske πume, itd.) / amendments to the
Obtaining a project, depending on special conditions (HEP, the Ministry of
building permit the Interior, Croatian Waters, Croatian Forests etc.)
3.2.2 Rizici u fazi izgradnje 3.2.2 Risks in the construction phase

Ako je pripremna faza napravljena dobro, ovdje ne If the preparatory phase is executed well, no special
treba oËekivati nikakve posebne rizike u odnosu na risks need to be anticipated here in relation to any
bilo koji graevinski projekt. Statistike za EU govore construction project whatsoever. Statistics for the
da se vrijeme graenja kopnene vjetroelektrane EU show that the time required for the construction
kreÊe izmeu pola godine i godinu dana. of a wind power plant on land ranges from between
a half a year to a year.
Tablica 2 daje rizike projekta u fazi izgradnje.
Table 2 presents the project risks during the con-
struction phase.
Tablica 2 − Rizici u fazi izgradnje
Table 2 − Risks during the construction phase.
Graevinski radovi / Izrada putova i cesta / Construction of routes − nepredvieni problemi s terenom / unforeseen problems from
Construction work and roads the terrain
Izrada temelja / Foundation construction − greπke u izradi temelja mogu biti fatalne / errors in the
construction of the foundation can be fatal
Montaæa agregata / Doprema opreme / Equipment delivery − oprema mora dolaziti po JIT (just in time) naËelu jer inaËe
Turbine dolazi do troπkova dræanja dizalica i ekipe na terenu / equipment
installation must come according to the just in time (JIT) principle because
otherwise there are costs for maintaining the cranes and team
on the terrain
Montaæa / Installation − montaæu radi dobavljaË pa on preuzima sve rizike / installation

is performed by the supplier, who assumes all the risks
3.2.3 Rizici u fazi eksploatacije 3.2.3 Risks in the exploitation phase

U fazi rada vjetroelektrane javljaju se veÊinom In the phase of the operation of a wind power
tehniËki i træiπni rizici. Svi rizici u ovoj fazi vezani plant, mostly technical and market risks occur.
su za rizike u proizvodnji i isporuci elektriËne All the risks in this phase are connected with risks
energije. Problemi nastaju kada vjetroelektrana in the production and delivery of electrical energy.
ne radi ili kada proizvodnja energije ne ostvaruje Problems occur when a wind power plant is not op-
zaradu. erating or when the production of energy does not
create earnings.
Tablica 3 prikazuje rizike vezane uz eksploataciju.
Table 3 presents risks connected with exploitation.
Tablica 3 − Rizici u fazi eksploatacije vjetroelektrane

Table 3 − Risks in the exploitation phase of a wind power plant
Eksploatacija / Proizvodnja energije / Energy production − loπe vjetroprilike / poor wind conditions
Exploitation − kvarovi opreme / equipment breakdowns
Sudjelovanje na energetskom træiπtu / − smanjenje poticaja (cijene energije) ispod prihvatljive razine /
Participation on the energy market reduction in incentive (energy price) below an acceptable level
3.3 Kvantitativna analiza rizika 3.3 Quantitative risk analysis

Kvantitativna analiza rizika se vrπi na rizicima Quantitative risk analysis is performed for risks
koji su odabrani kvalitativnom analizom kao that are selected by qualitative analysis as the
najznaËajniji za projekt. U ovom dijelu postupka most significant for the project. In this part of the
detaljno se analiziraju ti rizici i svakom se procedure, these risks are analyzed in detail and
dodjeljuju numeriËke vrijednosti. Kvantitativna each is assigned a numerical value. Quantitative
analiza koristi tehnike poput Monte Carlo analize analysis uses techniques such as Monte Carlo
ili analize stabla dogaaja [3]. analysis or event tree analysis [3].
U matematiËkim proraËunima, nesigurnosti su In mathematical calculations, uncertainties are

predstavljene sluËajnim varijablama (varijablama represented by random variables (variables that as-
koje poprimaju nepredvidive vrijednosti). SluËajne sume unpredictable values). Random variables can
varijable je moguÊe odrediti samo vjerojatnostima only be determined by the probabilities according
kojima one poprimaju neku vrijednost. Rizici se to which they assume a value. Risks occur precisely
pojavljuju upravo zbog nesigurnosti pa je zbog toga due to uncertainty and therefore the magnitude of
veliËina nekog rizika povezana s nekoliko sluËajnih a risk is connected with several random variables.
varijabli. KoristeÊi tehnike iz teorije vjerojatnosti, Using techniques from the theory of probability, it
moguÊe je odrediti razdiobu vjerojatnosti nekog is possible to determine the probability distribution
rizika, pod uvjetom da su poznate razdiobe of a given risk, provided that the probability distri-
vjerojatnosti nesigurnih varijabli koje taj rizik butions are known of the uncertain variables that
uzrokuju. Eventualne meuodnose spomenutih cause this risk. The eventual relationships among
nesigurnosti takoer treba uzeti u obzir [8]. these uncertainties should also be taken into con-
sideration [8].
Razdiobe vjerojatnosti neke varijable mogu biti
razliËite, ali se u analizi rizika koristi tek ograniËen The probability distributions of a variable can vary
broj najpoznatijih. Naravno, na træiπtu se mogu but only a limited number of the best known are
naÊi skupi i kompleksni modeli koji nude korisniku used in risk analysis. Naturally, on the market it
izbor iz gotovo neograniËenog spektra funkcija, is possible to find expensive and complex mod-
no za razumljivu i preglednu analizu dovoljno els that offer the user a selection from nearly an
je poznavati nekoliko osnovnih (Poissonova, unlimited spectrum of functions. However, for a
eksponencijalna, Gaussova, itd.). comprehensible and clear analysis, it is sufficient
to be acquainted with several basic ones (Poisson,
Rizik koji postoji u nekom projektu mjeri se exponential, Gauss etc.).
vjerojatnoπÊu pojave neæeljenog dogaaja. Dakle,
potrebno je odabrati neæeljeni dogaaj koji Êe u The risk that exists in a project is measured by the
analizi biti kriterij za procjenu riziËnosti projekta. probability of the occurrence of an undesired event.
MatematiËki gledano, radi se o jednoj varijabli Thus, it is necessary to select the undesired event
koja Êe u konaËnici predstavljati mjeru riziËnosti. that will be the criterion for the assessment of the
Ta kljuËna varijabla (kriterijska varijabla) funkcija project risk in the analysis. Viewed mathematically,
je pojedinih rizika (relevantnih varijabli) koji su this concerns one variable that will represent the
u matematiËkom modelu predstavljeni svojim measure of risk. This key variable (criterion variable)
razdiobama vjerojatnosti [9]. is a function of individual risks (relevant variables)
that in a mathematical model are represented by
Potrebno je izvrπiti sumiranje ili agregaciju funkcija their probability distributions [9].
vjerojatnosti riziËnih varijabli. Taj postupak je
jednostavan ako su funkcije jednake i ako imaju It is necessary to perform a summation or ag-
osobinu reproduktivnosti, to jest ako je zbroj gregation of the probability functions of the risk
dviju ili viπe funkcija nekog tipa opet funkcija tog variables. This procedure is simple if the functions
istog tipa. To svojstvo imaju normalna, binomna are equal and if they have the property of reproduc-
i poissonova razdioba, ali npr. eksponencijalna ibility, i.e. if the sum of two or more functions of a
nema. BuduÊi da je mala vjerojatnost da sve type is a function of the same type. Normal, bino-
varijable u modelu budu istog tipa, za agregaciju mial and Poisson distributions have this property
funkcija se koriste kompleksne raËunalne metode but, for example, exponential distribution does not.
od kojih je najmodernija i u zadnje vrijeme najviπe Since there is little likelihood that all the variables
koriπtena Monte Carlo metoda [9]. in a model would be of the same type, complex
computer methods are used for an aggregation,
Slika 2 prikazuje kvantitativnu analizu rizika kako of which the most modern and in recent times the
ju definira standard AS/NZS 4360 u toËki 3 [3]. most popular is the Monte Carlo method [9].
Figure 2 presents the quantitative risk analysis as

defined by standard AS/NZS 4360 in Item 3 of [3].
Slika 2
Kvantitativna analiza
rizika
Figure 2
Quantitative risk
analysis
Ulazne razdiobe vjerojatnosti / Model (spreadsheet) / Izlazna razdioba vjerojatnosti /

Input probability distributions Model (spreadsheet) Output probability distribution
3.4 Evaluacija rizika 3.4 Risk evaluation

Procjena rizika i predvianje njihove razdiobe The assessment of risks and the prediction of their
vjerojatnosti nije dovoljna za modeliranje. probability distribution are not sufficient for model-
Rizike je potrebno vrednovati prema nekom ing. Risks must be assessed according to some cri-
kriteriju. Za sluËaj projekata kao πto su projekti terion. In the case of projects such as wind energy
u vjetroenergetici, najËeπÊe se primjenjuje plants, economic criteria are most commonly used.
ekonomski kriterij. Dakle, odluke se donose Decisions are made on the basis of the profitability
na temelju ekonomske isplativosti predvienih of the forecast results. The impact of an individual
rezultata. Utjecaj pojedinog rizika potrebno risk must be expressed through the impact upon
je izraziti preko utjecaja na neku od veliËina some of the values of the economic assessment of
ekonomskog vrednovanja projekta i zatim the project and then their dependence should be
analizirati njihovu ovisnost. analyzed.
Razvojem menadæerskog pristupa financiranju i Through the development of a managerial ap-

projektima razvio se cijeli niz metoda financijskog proach to financing and projects, an entire series
odluËivanja [10] i [11]. Pri odabiru metode za of methods of financial decision making have been
evaluaciju projekta s glediπta analize rizika treba developed [10] and [11]. In selecting methods for
voditi raËuna o potencijalnim korisnicima modela. the evaluation of a project from the viewpoint of
Donositelji odluka ne moraju biti i vrlo Ëesto nisu risk analysis, it is necessary to take account of the
struËnjaci za ekonomsku znanost. Tako su u ovom potential users of the model. Decision makers do
radu odabrane tri temeljne metode financijskog not have to be and very often are not experts in eco-
odluËivanja. nomic science. Therefore, three fundamental meth-
ods have been selected in this article for financial
Bit ocjene rentabilnosti (ekonomska ocjena za decision making.
investitora) jest u procjeni poveÊava li se mate-
rijalna osnova projekta ili smanjuje kada se The essence of profitability assessment (economic
uzme u obzir cijeli vijek projekta. U dinamiËkom assessment for the investor) is to assess whether
pristupu ocjeni ekonomskog doprinosa projekta there is an increase or decrease in the material
koriπtene su sljedeÊe metode [10] i [11]: basis of a project when the entire lifetime of the
project is taken into account. In the dynamic
− metoda razdoblja povrata investicijskih ulaganja, approach to the assessment of the economic
− metode diskontiranih tokova novca, i to nakon contribution of a project, the following methods are
oporezivanja: used [10] and [11]:
· interna stopa povrata i
· Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost. − the payback period method,
− the discounted cash flows method, after taxa-
tion:
· the internal rate of return, and
· the net present value.
4 MODEL ZA KVANTITATIVNU 4 MODEL FOR QUANTITATIVE
ANALIZU RIZIKA RISK ASSESSMENT
Model za analizu rizika projekata vjetroelektrana u A model for the analysis of the risk of a wind power
Republici Hrvatskoj izraen je u Microsoft Excelu. plant projects in the Republic of Croatia has been
Odabir programskog paketa uvjetovan je njegovom prepared in Microsoft Excel. The selection of the
rasprostranjenoπÊu. Model je namijenjen dono- program package was determined by its popularity.
siteljima odluka i voditeljima projekata te je stoga The model is intended for decision makers and proj-
kljuËno da bude πto jednostavniji za koriπtenje. ect developers. Therefore, it is crucial for it to be
Excel je vrlo raπiren i koriπten programski alat i as simple as possible to use. Excel is a very popular
veÊina je ljudi dobro upoznata s njegovim osnovnim software tool and the majority of people are well
funkcijama i moguÊnostima. Koriπtenje ovog acquainted with its basic functions and possibili-
modela ne zahtijeva napredno koriπtenje Excela, ties. The use of this model does not require the use
iako je preporuËljivo upoznati se s elementima of advanced Excel functions, although becoming
programskog alata koji su opisani u daljnjem acquainted with the elements of the software tool
tekstu. Za detaljno prilagoavanje i mijenjanje that are described later in the text is recommended.
modela ipak je nuæno minimalno obrazovanje u For the detailed adaptation and modification of
vidu nekog od dostupnih teËajeva za napredno the model, minimum training is required such as
koriπtenje Excela u trajanju od nekoliko tjedana. that available from courses in the advanced use of
Excel, which last for several weeks.
4.1 Programski dodaci koriπteni pri razvoju modela

Pri izradi modela koriπteni su programski 4.1 Software add-ins used in the development of
dodaci (add-in) koji su dio potpune instalacije the model
programskog paketa Excel. Takoer je izvrπena In developing the model, software add-ins were
nadogradnja pomoÊu shareware programskih used that are part of the complete Excel pack-
dodataka i jednog emailware. Svi navedeni age. Furthermore, upgrading was performed using
programski dodatci dostupni su na Internet shareware software add-ins and one emailware. All
stranicama vezanim uz Excel. the cited software add-ins are available on the Web
pages connected with Excel.
Add-in je program koji dodaje proizvoljne funkcije
i proπiruje moguÊnosti Excela. Add-in sadræi An add-in is a program that adds arbitrary functions
set funkcija i orua koji omoguÊuju skraÊivanje and expands the possibilities of Excel. An add-in
koraka pri razvoju kompleksnih analiza. Excel contains a set of functions and tools that makes
podræava tri tipa dodataka: Excel add-in, COM shortcuts possible in the development of complex
(Component Object Model) add-in i automatski analyses. Excel supports three types of add-ins:
add-in. Model razvijen u ovom radu podrazumijeva Excel add-in, the Component Object Model (COM)
ugradnju Excel i COM dodataka. Excel add-in ima add-in and the automatic add-in. The model
ekstenziju *.xla, COM add-in ima ekstenziju *.dll referred to in this article presumes the installation
ili *.exe. Za ispravno funkcioniranje predmetnog of Excel and the COM add-ins. Excel add-ins
modela potrebno je instalaciju Excel programa have the extension *.xla, COM add-ins have the
upotpuniti sljedeÊim dodacima: extension *.dll or *.exe. For the correct function
of this model, it is necessary to install the Excel
− Analysis ToolPak add-in je paket financijskih, program with the following add-ins:
statistiËkih i inæenjerskih funkcija koji je dio
potpune instalacije Excela, − The Analysis ToolPak add-in is a package of
− VBA add-in omoguÊuje izradu vlastitih macro financial, statistical and engineering functions
potprograma u Visual Basic programskom that is a part of full Excel installation,
jeziku koji se ponaπaju kao obiËne Excel − The VBA add-in makes it possible to devise your
funkcije. Ovaj dodatak nije dio standardne own macro subprograms in the Visual Basic pro-
instalacije Excela pa ga je potrebno dodati, gramming language, which behave like ordinary
− Solver add-in raËuna rjeπenja u πto-ako analizi. Excel functions. This add-in is not part of the
Takoer nije dio standardne instalacije Excela standard Excel installation and must be added,
pa ga je potrebno dodati, − The Solver add-in calculates solutions in what-if
− Microsoft Office Web Components (OWC) analysis. It is also not part of the standard Excel
je kolekcija COM add-in dodataka koji installation and must be added,
omoguÊuju objavljivanje Excel stranica i − Microsoft Office Web Components (OWC) are a
tablica na internetu [12], collection of Component Object Model (COM)
add-ins that facilitates the publication of Excel
pages and tables on the Internet [12],
− SimulAr add-in je dodatak koji omoguÊuje − The SimulAr add-in is for Monte Carlo analysis
Monte Carlo analizu [13]. [13].
4.2 Opis modela 4.2 Model description

Model analize rizika za projekte vjetroelektrana u The risk analysis model for the wind power plant
Republici Hrvatskoj koristi Monte Carlo analizu projects in the Republic of Croatia uses Monte Carlo
kao temeljni postupak pri proraËunu gustoÊe analysis as the basic procedure in the calculation of
vjerojatnosti pojedinih varijabli. Ova metoda the probability density of individual variables. This
podrazumijeva dodjeljivanje razdioba vjerojatnosti method implies assigning probability distributions
varijablama modela koje predstavljaju rizike to the model variables, which represent risks, fol-
te zatim generiranje sluËajnih brojeva u okviru lowed by the generation of random numbers within
odabranih razdioba vjerojatnosti kako bi se the framework of the selected probability distribu-
simulirali buduÊi dogaaji. tions in order to simulate future events.
Koraci pri simuliranju su sljedeÊi: The steps in simulation are as follows:
− definiranje ulaznih varijabli, − the definition of the input variables,

− definiranje izlaznih (promatranih) varijabli, − the definition of the output (observed) variables,
− unoπenje korelacijskih koeficijenata (proizvo- − the entry of correlation coefficients (arbitrary
ljan korak), step),
− simuliranje, − simulation, and
− prikaz rezultata. − the presentation of the results.
Model je testiran na primjeru 20 vjetroagregata The model has been tested on a sample of 20 wind
jediniËne snage 1 MW sa æivotnim vijekom od 25 turbines, each with a 1 MW power rating and a
godina. lifetime of 25 years.
4.3 Definiranje ulaznih varijabli 4.3 Definition of input variables

Ulazne varijable modela su rizici za koje se vjeruje The input variables of the model are risks that are
da Êe u buduÊnosti imati utjecaj na projekt. Svi believed to have a future impact on the project. All
rizici su pretvoreni u novËane jedinice kako bi risks are transformed into monetary units in order
se njihov utjecaj mogao prikazati promjenama for their impact to be presented as changes in the
financijskih pokazatelja projekta. Svakom od financial indices of the project. Each of the cited
navedenih rizika pridruæena je razdioba vjero- risks is associated with probability distribution.
jatnosti. Model nudi moguÊnost za unoπenje The model offers the option of entering 500 input
500 ulaznih varijabli i pridruæivanje 20 razliËitih variables and 20 different associated probability
razdioba vjerojatnosti. distributions.
Raspoloæive razdiobe vjerojatnosti su: normalna, The available probability distributions are as fol-
trokutasta, uniformna, beta, kvadratna, log- lows: normal, triangular, uniform, beta, square, log-
normalna, lognormalna kvadratna, gama, logisti- normal, log-normal square, gamma, logistical, ex-
Ëka, eksponencijalna, studentova, usporedna, ponential, student, comparative, Weibull, Rayleigh,
weibullova, rayleigheva, binomna, negativna binomial, negative binomial, geometric, Poisson,
binomna, geometrijska, poissonova, diskretna i discrete and discrete uniform.
diskretno uniformna.
The input variables of the model are as follows:
Ulazne varijable modela su kako slijedi:
− annual production,
− godiπnja proizvodnja, − measured wind potential,
− mjerenje vjetropotencijala, − change in the physical plan,
− promjena prostornog plana, − geodetic image,
− geodetska snimka, − location permit,
− lokacijska dozvola, − construction work,
− graevinski radovi, − connection to the network, and
− prikljuËak na mreæu, − connection substation.
− prikljuËna TS.
Kao primjer matematiËkog prikazivanja rizika The annual production per unit (MWh) variable will
posluæit Êe varijabla godiπnja proizvodnja po serve as an example of a mathematical demonstra-
jedinici (MWh) koja se kasnije mnoæi s cijenom tion of risk, which will later be multiplied by the
MWh i brojem instaliranih agregata kako bi u price per MWh and the number of installed wind
proraËunu bila izraæena kroz novËane jedinice. turbines, so that the calculation will be expressed
Ostale ulazne varijable modelirane su na isti through monetary units. The remaining input vari-
naËin. ables are modeled in the same manner.
Za godiπnju proizvodnju odabrani su sljedeÊi For annual production, the following parameters
parametri: normalna razdioba, s intervalom od have been selected: the normal distribution, period
1 900 MWh do 2 600 MWh, srednja vrijednost with an interval of 1 900 MWh to 2 600 MWh, mean
= 2 250, standardna devijacija = 250. value = 2 250, standard deviation = 250.
Pretpostavljena je godiπnja proizvodnja izmeu Annual production of between 1 900 MWh and
1 900 MWh i 2 600 MWh, πto su odlike priliËno 2 600 MWh is assumed, which characterizes a fairly
dobre lokacije. Svjetska praksa raËuna lokaciju s good location. In world practice, a location with over
iznad 2 000 sati nazivnog rada kao vrlo dobru, ali 2 000 hours of nominal operation is considered to be
ovdje treba uzeti u obzir povoljne i sigurne uvjete very good. However, it is necessary to take favorable
otkupa energije koji u inozemstvu omoguÊavaju and secure conditions into account in the buying up
isplativost i loπijih lokacija. Za hrvatske prilike of energy in other countries, although even poorer
ovakva lokacija je prosjek ispod kojega vjerojatno locations may be profitable. For the Croatian situ-
nije isplativo investirati. ation, such a location is the average, below which
investment is probably not worthwhile.
Slika 3 prikazuje razdiobu vjerojatnosti varijable
godiπnja proizvodnja prema primijenjenom modelu Figure 3 presents the probability distribution of
na temelju 10 000 pokuπaja. Ovdje je bitno annual production variable according to the applied
napomenuti da su na apscisi prikazane kljuËne model on the basis of 10 000 iterations. It is
frekventne toËke oko kojih se grupiraju rezultati, necessary to mention here that the key frequency
a ne stvarne vrijednosti iteracijskih koraka. Stoga points are shown on the abscissa, around which the
vrijednost prikazana na apscisi moæda u stvarnosti results are grouped, and not the actual values of the
nije niti jednom bila dobivena. iterative steps. Therefore, the value shown on the
abscissa may never have been obtained in reality.
Slika 3
Razdioba vjerojatnosti
varijable godiπnja
proizvodnja
Figure 3
UËestalost / Frequency
Probability distribution
of annual production
variable
Godiπnja proizvodnja / Annual production (MWh)
4.4 Definiranje izlaznih varijabli 4.4 The definition of output variables
Izlazne varijable su rezultat simulacije u kojoj se Output variables are the result of simulation in
10 000 puta odabiru sluËajne vrijednosti ulaznih which the random values of input variables are
varijabli te se prema modelu proraËunavaju izlazne selected 10 000 times and the output variables
varijable. Rezultati simulacija sluæe da bi se Monte are calculated according to the model. Simulation
Carlo metodom odredile razdiobe vjerojatnosti results serve for the determination of the probabil-
izlaznih varijabli. Odabrane su sljedeÊe izlazne ity distributions of output variables using the Monte
varijable: Carlo method. The following output variables have
been chosen:
− ukupna investicija (UI),
− razdoblje povrata investicije (RPI), − total investment (TI),
− Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost (»SV), − payback period (PP),
− interna stopa rentabilnosti (ISR). − net present value (NPV),
− internal rate of return (IRR).
Ukupna investicija dobiva se zbrajanjem svih
troπkova. Ovo zapravo nije kriterijska varijabla koja Total investment is obtained from the sum of all the
bi sluæila za evaluaciju projekta, ali je u svakom costs. This is actually not a criterion variable for the
sluËaju interesantna pa je zbog toga i razmotrena. eventual project but in any case is interesting and
therefore it is considered.
»ista sadaπnja vrijednost (»SV) se raËuna pomoÊu
Excel ugraene funkcije npv, a na temelju The net present value (NPV) is calculated using
novËanih tokova nakon 25 godina rada elektrane. the Excel npv function, on the basis of cash flows
Pretpostavljena diskontna stopa d je 10 %. after the power plant has been in operation for 25
Koriπtena formula je: years. The assumed discount rate, d, is 10 %. The
formula used is as follows:
, cf ,
» i NPV i (1)
gdje su: where:
»SV − Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost, NPV − net present value,

nt − novËani tokovi za period efektuiranja, cf − cash flows for the period of effectuation,
d − diskontna stopa (u modelu 10 %). d − discount rate (10 % in the model).
Interna stopa rentabilnosti (ISR) raËuna se The internal rate of return (IRR) is calculated using
pomoÊu Excel ugraene funkcije irr. Excel raËuna the Excel irr function. Excel calculates the IRR
ISR iterativnim postupkom traæenja stope povrata using an iterative procedure for seeking the rate of
za nultu vrijednost Ëiste sadaπnje vrijednosti. return for the zero value of the net present value.
ProraËun se vrπi sve dok odstupanje nije unutar Calculation is performed until the deviation is
0,000 01 %, πto je svakako dovoljno precizno za within 0,000 01 %, which is certainly sufficiently
potrebe ovog modela. precise for the purposes of this model.
Razdoblje povrata investicije (RPI) raËuna se The payback period (PP) is calculated through
kombinacijom ugraenih funkcija lookup i if. a combination of the lookup functions and if
Model dopuπta proglaπavanje bilo koje varijable functions. The model permits the designation of
izlaznom varijablom. any variable as the output variable.
4.5 Odreivanje korelacija 4.5 Determination of correlations

Ponekad su ulazne varijable meusobno ovisne pa Sometimes input variables are mutually dependent
je te ovisnosti potrebno unijeti u model, potrebno and this dependence must be entered into the
je odrediti matricu korelacija. Predmetni model model. It is necessary to determine the correlation
dopuπta odreivanje korelacijskog koeficijenta matrix. This model permits the determination of the
izmeu ∑1 i 1 za bilo koje dvije varijable. Ako correlation coefficient between ∑1 and 1 for any two
je korelacijski koeficijent 1 (savrπeno pozitivan variables. If the correlation coefficient is 1 (perfect
odnos), dvije se varijable kreÊu zajedno, πto znaËi positive correlation), the two variables move togeth-
da ako se jedna poveÊa za 10 %, isto Êe uËiniti i er, which means that if one is increased by 10 %,
druga. Ako je korelacijski koeficijent ∑1 (savrπeno the other will be also. If the correlation coefficient is
negativan odnos), varijable se kreÊu suprotno, πto ∑1 (perfect negative correlation), the variables move
znaËi da ako se jedna poveÊa za 10 %, druga Êe in the opposite directions, which means that if one
se smanjiti za isti postotak. Svi koeficijenti koji su is increased by 10 %, the other will be decreased by
izmeu ∑1 i 1 daju adekvatne korelacije. 10 %. All the coefficients that are between ∑1 and
1 yield adequate correlations.
U modelu su korelirana dva para varijabli:
Two pairs of variables are correlated in the model,
− godiπnja proizvodnja i mjerenje vjetropoten- as follows:
cijala stavljeni su u korelaciju s koeficijentom
0,8. Dakle, matematiËki gledano, ako se − annual production and wind potential measure-
troπkovi mjerenja vjetropotencijala poveÊaju ment are correlated with the coefficient 0,8.
10 %, godiπnja proizvodnja Êe porasti 8 %. Thus, mathematically speaking, if the costs of
Naravno, ovdje se radi o varijablama, a ne o measuring wind potential increase by 10 %,
stvarnoj situaciji. U stvarnosti Êe veÊe ulaganje the annual production will increase by 8 %.
u mjerenje vjetropotencijala rezultirati Naturally, this concerns variables and not the
toËnijim odreivanjem najpovoljnijeg broja actual situation. In reality, greater investments
i veliËine vjetroagregata, πto znaËi manjom in the measurement of wind potential will result
vjerojatnoπÊu krive procjene proizvodnje, in the more precise determination of the most
− geodetska snimka i graevinski radovi koreli- suitable number and size of wind turbines,
rani su s koeficijentom 0,5. Do veze izmeu which means a lower likelihood of an incorrect
ovih rizika dolazi zbog terenskih radova. Ako je production estimate,
geodetska snimka skupa, lokacija je velika ili − the geodetic image and construction work are
nepristupaËna, πto znaËi da se mogu oËekivati correlated with the coefficient of 0,5. The con-
poveÊani troπkovi izgradnje. nection between these risks occurs due to field
work. If a geodetic image is expensive, the loca-
tion is large or inaccessible, which means that
increased construction costs can be expected.
5 REZULTATI (IZVJE©∆E O
ANALIZI RIZIKA)
5.1 Ukupna investicija 5 RESULTS (RISK ANALYSIS
Slika 4 prikazuje razdiobu vjerojatnosti varijable REPORT)
ukupna investicija.
5.1 Total investment
Figure 4 presents the probability distribution of the
total investment variable.
Slika 4
varijable ukupna
investicija
Figure 4
of the total investment
variable
Viπe / More
Ukupna investicija / Total investment (103 HRK)
Iz razdiobe vjerojatnosti moguÊe je oËitati sljedeÊe The following data can be read from the probability
podatke (tablica 4): distribution (Table 4):
Tablica 4 − KljuËni podaci razdiobe vjerojatnosti varijable ukupna investicija

Table 4 − Key data of the probability distribution of the total investment variable
Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value (103 HRK)

Minimum / Minimum 139 118
Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 145 944
Maksimum / Maximum 155 510
Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 2 694
Raspon / Range 16 392
Ukupna investicija je varijabla s normalnom The total investment is the variable with the normal
razdiobom vjerojatnosti i parametrima: srednja probability distribution and is parameterized: mean
vrijednost = 145,94 milijuna kuna, standardna value = 145,94 million kunas, standard deviation
devijacija = 2,69 milijuna kuna. Rasipanje ove is = 2,69 million kunas. The variable dispersion
varijable je malo, a uzrok tome je preteæiti udio is low, due to the predominant share of equipment
troπka opreme koji je fiksan u ukupnoj investiciji. costs, which is fixed in total investment.
Vjerojatnost se raËuna integriranjem po funkciji Probability is calculated by the integration of the

gustoÊe vjerojatnosti, to jest integral za bilo koju probability density function, i.e. the integral for
vrijednost daje vjerojatnost da konaËna vrijednost any value yields the probability that the finite value
projekta bude manja od zadane. Ovaj je podatak of the project will be lower than the given value.
kljuËan za analizu rizika. RezultirajuÊa funkcija This fact is crucial for risk analysis. The resulting
je kumulativna funkcija vjerojatnosti varijable (u function is the cumulative function of the variable
ovom sluËaju vrijednosti projekta) [14]. probability (in this case the project value) [14].
Slika 5 prikazuje kumulativnu razdiobu vjeroja- Figure 5 presents the cumulative probability distri-
tnosti varijable ukupna investicija. bution of the of the total investment variable.
Slika 5
Kumulativna razdioba
(%)
vjerojatnosti varijable
ukupna investicija
Vjerojatnost / Probability
Figure 5
Cumulative probability
distribution of the total
investment variable
Viπe / More
Ukupna investicija / Total investment (103 HRK)
UobiËajeni podatak koji za analizu rizika daje kumu- The customary value yielded by cumulative probabil-
lativna razdioba vjerojatnosti je 80 %-tna granica po- ity distribution in risk analysis is the 80% confidence
uzdanosti [14] koja je u ovom sluËaju: 142 560 000 limit [14] which in this case is: 142 560 000 kunas
kuna < ukupna investicija < 149 609 000 kuna. < total investment < 149 609 000 kunas.
5.2 Razdoblje povrata investicije 5.2 The payback period
Slika 6 prikazuje razdiobu vjerojatnosti varijable Figure 6 presents the probability distribution of the
razdoblje povrata investicije. payback period variable.
Slika 6
Razdioba
razdoblje povrata
investicije
Figure 6
Probability
distribution of the
payback period
variable
Razdoblje povrata investicije / Payback period (Godina / Year)
Iz razdiobe vjerojatnosti moguÊe je oËitati sljedeÊe From the probability distribution, it is possible to
podatke (tablica 5): obtain the following data (Table 5):
Tablica 5 − KljuËni podaci razdiobe vjerojatnosti varijable razdoblje povrata investicije

Table 5 − Key data of the probability distribution of the payback period variable
Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value (Godina/Year)

Minimum / Minimum 6
Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 14,83
Maksimum / Maximum 23
Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 4,31

Raspon / Range 17
Razdioba vjerojatnosti razdoblja povrata inve- The probability distribution of payback period does
sticije ne odgovara nekoj poznatoj funkciji. not correspond to some known function. Moreover,
©toviπe, razdoblje povrata investicije je diskretna the payback period is a discrete variable that ac-
varijabla koja poprima 18 vrijednosti u periodu quires 18 values within a period of 17 years. This is
od 17 godina. To je logiËno buduÊi da je model logical, since the model is set up in such a manner
postavljen tako da period povrata investicije uvijek that the payback period is always a integer variable
bude cjelobrojna varijabla izraæena u godinama. expressed in years. From the numerical data, it can
Iz numeriËkih podataka moæe se vidjeti da je be seen that the value at 23 years in 10 000 itera-
vrijednost 23 godine u 10 000 pokuπaja dobivena tions is obtained only two times (0,02 %), which is
samo 2 puta (0,02 %), πto se ne vidi iz grafiËkog not seen from the graphic presentation.
prikaza.
Figure 7 presents the cumulative probability distri-
Slika 7 prikazuje kumulativnu razdiobu vjerojatnosti bution of the payback period variable.
varijable razdoblje povrata investicije.
(%) Slika 7
razdoblje povrata
investicije
Figure 7
distribution of the
payback period variable
Razdoblje povrata investicije / Payback period (Godina / Year)
80 %-tna granica pouzdanosti je: 8 godina < raz- The 80 % confidence limit is: 8 years < payback
doblje povrata investicije < 20 godina. Dakle, s period < 20 years. Thus, with 80 % confidence, it
80 %-tnom pouzdanoπÊu se moæe utvrditi da Êe se is possible to determine that the payback period will
period povrata investicije kretati u tom intervalu. be within that interval. This is not bad if the mean
To i nije loπe ako se uzme u obzir srednja vrijednost value of the probability distribution is taken into
razdiobe vjerojatnosti koja je oko 15 godina, ali ne account, which is approximately 15 years and does
predstavlja mamac za ulagaËe. not represent a lure to investors.
5.3 »ista sadaπnja vrijednost 5.3 Net present value

Slika 8 prikazuje razdiobu vjerojatnosti varijable Figure 8 presents the probability distribution of the
Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost. net present value variable.
Slika 8
varijable Ëista sadaπnja
vrijednost
Figure 8
of the net present value
variable
Viπe / More
»ista sadaπnja vrijednost / Net present value (103 HRK)
Tablica 6 − KljuËni podaci razdiobe vjerojatnosti varijable Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost
Table 6 − Key data for the probability distribution of the net present value variable
Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value (103 HRK)

Minimum / Minimum ∑ 24 501
Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 2 324
Maksimum / Maximum 29 105
Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 11 744
Raspon / Range 53 606
»ista sadaπnja vrijednost je varijabla s normalnom The net present value is a variable with normal
razdiobom vjerojatnosti i parametrima srednja probability distribution and parameters with a mean
vrijednost = 2,32 milijuna kuna, standardna value of = 2,32 million kunas, standard deviation
devijacija = 11,74 milijuna kuna. Rasipanje je = 11,74 million kunas. Dispersion is significantly
znatno veÊe nego kod npr. ukupne investicije, πto greater than in, for example, total investment,
je vidljivo i iz grafova. which is also evident from the graphs.
Slika 9 prikazuje kumulativnu razdiobu vjero- Figure 9 presents the cumulative probability distri-
jatnosti varijable Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost. bution of the net present value variable.
Slika 9
(%)
Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost
Figure 9
distribution of the net
present value variable
Viπe / More
»ista sadaπnja vrijednost / Net present value (103 HRK)
80 %-tna granica pouzdanosti je: ∑13 780 460 The 80 % confidence limit is: ∑13 780 460 kunas
kuna < Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost < 18 919 730 < net present value < 18 919 730 kunas. Thus, it
kuna. Dakle, s 80 %-tnom pouzdanoπÊu se ne is not possible to determine whether the net present
moæe utvrditi da Êe Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost biti value will be positive with 80 % confidence. The
pozitivna. Kriterij procjene projekta na temelju criterion for the assessment of the project based
Ëiste sadaπnje vrijednosti traæi da ona bude upon net present value requires it to be positive,
pozitivna, πto se po kumulativnoj krivulji deπava which according to the cumulative curve occurs at a
na iznosu vjerojatnosti od 43 %. To znaËi da je probability of 43 %. This means that the probability
vjerojatnost uspjeπnog projekta 57 %. of the success of the project is 57 %.
5.4 Interna stopa rentabilnosti 5.4 Internal rate of return
Slika 10 prikazuje razdiobu vjerojatnosti varijable Figure 10 presents the probability distribution of
interna stopa rentabilnosti. the internal rate of return variable
Slika 10
varijable interna stopa
rentabilnosti
Figure 10
UËestalost / Frequency Probability distribution of
the internal rate of return
variable
Interna stopa rentabilnosti / Internal rate of return
Tablica 7 − KljuËni podaci razdiobe vjerojatnosti varijable interna stopa rentabilnosti

Table 7 − Key data on the probability distribution of the internal rate of return variable
Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value

Minimum / Minimum 0,036 122 265
Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 0,107 410 979
Maksimum / Maximum 0,189 512 628
Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 0,033 570 573
Raspon / Range 0,153 390 363
Interna stopa rentabilnosti je varijabla s nor- The internal rate of return is a variable with normal
malnom razdiobom vjerojatnosti i parametrima probability distribution and parameters with a
srednja vrijednost = 10,7 %, standardna mean value of = 10,7 %, standard deviation of
devijacija = 3,35 %. = 3,35 %.
Kumulativna razdioba vjerojatnosti interne stope The cumulative probability distribution of the in-
rentabilnosti prikazana je na slici 11. ternal rate of return variable is presented in Figure
11.
Slika 11
(%)
interna stope
rentabilnosti
Figure 11
distribution of the
internal rate of return
variable
Interna stopa rentabilnosti / Internal rate of return
80 %-tna granica pouzdanosti je: 0,06 < interna The 80 % confidence limit is: 0,06 < internal rate
stopa rentabilnosti < 0,15. Kriterij procjene of return < 0,15. The criterion for the assessment
projekta temeljem interne stope rentabilnosti of the project based upon the internal rate of return
zahtijeva da interna stopa rentabilnosti bude veÊa requires that the internal rate of return is greater
ili jednaka zadanoj diskontnoj stopi (10 %). Taj than or equal to the given discount rate (10 %).
je kriterij zadovoljen vjerojatnoπÊu od 49 %, πto This criterion is met with a probability of 49 %,
je blizu vrijednosti dobivene za Ëistu sadaπnju which is close to the value obtained for the net
vrijednost (43 %). present value (43 %).
6 ZAKLJU»AK 6 CONCLUSION
Projekt izgradnje vjetroelektrane, od traæenja The construction of a wind power plant is a complex
lokacije do proizvodnje je viπegodiπnji, sloæeni project that requires many years, from the seeking
projekt tijekom kojega su sve zainteresirane of the location to production, during which time
strane izloæene brojnim rizicima od kojih su neki all the interested parties are exposed to numerous
dovoljno znaËajni da mogu upropastiti projekt. risks, including some with potentially devastating
Analiza rizika je potrebna da bi investitor i voditelj consequences. Risk analysis is necessary in order
projekta πto bolje predvidjeli i izbjegli buduÊe for the investor and developer to anticipate and
probleme. S druge strane, institucije koje daju avoid future problems to the greatest possible
kredite za projekte vjetroelektrana i same vrπe extent. On the other side, institutions that provide
analizu rizika prema modernim naËelima pa dobra loans for wind power plant projects perform risk
priprema moæe znaËiti razliku izmeu dobivanja i analysis according to modern principles, so that
nedobivanja kredita. good preparation can signify the difference between
obtaining and not obtaining a loan.
U radu su usporeene razliËite metode analize
rizika i navedeni nedostatci svake pojedine. In the article, various methods of risk analysis
NumeriËko modeliranje rizika je suvremena are compared and the shortcomings of each are
metoda analize rizika koja daje lako mjerljive i presented. Numerical risk modeling is a modern
usporedive podatke, buduÊi da svaki rizik pretvara method of risk analysis that provides easily mea-
u funkciju razdiobe vjerojatnosti moguÊih ishoda. surable and comparable data, since each risk
Rezultat analize je graf koji predstavlja egzaktnu is transformed into a function of the probability
informaciju o riziËnosti projekta. Najosjetljiviji distribution of the potential results. The result of
dio modela je odreivanje razdioba vjerojatnosti analysis is a graph that presents exact project risk
ulaznih varijabli. U ovom radu je to uËinjeno information. The most sensitive part of the model
uz koriπtenje postojeÊih (svjetskih i hrvatskih) is determining the probability distribution of input
iskustava u projektima vjetroenergetike. variables. In this article, this is performed with the
use of extant (world and Croatian) experiences in
Na temelju provedene analize rizika moæe se wind energetics projects.
zakljuËiti sljedeÊe:
On the basis of the risk analysis conducted, it is
− projekti vjetroelektrana u Hrvatskoj su isplativi, possible to conclude the following:
ali uz umjerene financijske pokazatelje. Radi
se o relativno sigurnoj investiciji koja se − wind power plant projects in Croatia are cost
isplaÊuje nakon 12 do 15 godina, effective but with moderate financial indices.
− najutjecajniji rizici su vezani uz mjerenje This concerns a relatively safe investment that
vjetropotencijala, buduÊi da o tome ovisi pro- is returned after 12 to 15 years,
izvodnja (zarada) vjetroelektrane. Mjerenje − the greatest risks are in connection with the
vjetropotencijala je osnovni pokazatelj ispla- measurement of wind potential, since the
tivosti projekta pa ga i financijske institucije production and earnings of a wind power plant
vrlo ozbiljno shvaÊaju, tako da o kvaliteti depend on it. Measurement of the wind potential
mjerenja ovisi dobivanje kredita za izgradnju is the basic index of the cost effectiveness of a
vjetroelektrane, project, and taken very seriously by financial
− u Hrvatskoj su prilike joπ uvijek nesigurne institutions. Therefore, obtaining credit for the
s aspekta administrativnih rizika (dozvole, construction of a wind power plant depends
suglasnosti), πto moæe znatno poveÊati vrijeme upon the quality of the measurement,
potrebno za pripremne radove (prije poËetka − in Croatia, the situation is still uncertain from
gradnje). Ova situacija Êe se u buduÊnosti the aspect of administrative risks (permits,
poboljπavati, ali to naæalost neÊe biti dovoljno approvals), which can significantly increase the
brzo za projekte koji su danas u fazi mjerenja. time necessary for the preliminary work (prior
to beginning construction). This situation will
Iako je referentni sluËaj u modelu projekt vjetro- improve in the future but, unfortunately, not
elektrane u hrvatskim uvjetima, moguÊe ga je soon enough for the projects that are currently
prilagoditi za bilo koje træiπte. Glavne razlike in the measurement phase.
izmeu Hrvatske i zemalja Europske unije
oËituju se u rizicima vezanim uz administrativne Although conditions in Croatia apply to the refer-
procedure, model poticanja obnovljivih izvora ence case in the wind power plant project model,
energije i imovinsko-pravna pitanja. Promjene u the model can be adapted to any market whatso-
izgledu funkcija razdioba vjerojatnosti pojedinih ever. The main differences between Croatia and the
rizika mogu se lako unijeti u model, a moguÊe countries of the European Union are evident in the
je dodati i nove varijable. U uvjetima ureenog risks connected with administrative procedures, the
træiπta rezultati analize rizika bili bi pouzdaniji model of incentives for renewable energy sources
(manje rasipanje), buduÊi da bi npr. ulazna and property-legal questions. Changes with regard
varijabla PrikljuËna TS bila odreena za pojedinu to the function of the probability distribution of in-
lokaciju, dok je trenutno u Hrvatskoj potrebno dividual risks can easily be entered into the model.
predviati ishod pregovora s HEP-om. It is also possible to add new variables. Under the
conditions of an orderly market, the results of risk
©toviπe, model je moguÊe primijeniti i na projekte analysis will be more reliable (less dispersed). For
drugih obnovljivih izvora energije, kao πto su male example, the input connection substation variable
hidroelektrane ili solarne elektrane. BuduÊi da se should be determined for an individual location,
model temelji na numeriËkoj analizi rizika, moæe while currently in Croatia it is necessary to antici-
se, uz proπirenja, primijeniti na gotovo svaki pate the outcome of the negotiations with HEP.
investicijski projekt. Monte Carlo metoda ima
najrazliËitije primjene, od financijskog træiπta, do Moreover, the model can also be applied for
socioloπkih analiza. projects involving other renewable energy sources,
such as small hydroelectric power plants or solar
energy. Since the model is based upon numerical
risk analysis, with expansion it can be applied to
nearly every investment project. The Monte Carlo
method has the most varied applications, from the
financial market to social analyses.
LITERATURA / REFERENCES
[1] Energetski Institut Hrvoje Poæar, Strategija energetskog razvitka, u okviru projekta Strategija razvitka
Republike Hrvatske ∑ Hrvatska u 21 stoljeÊu, 2002.
[2] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Risk Management Strategy, DEFRA,
Great Britain, April, 2004
[3] COOPER, D. F., GREY, S., RAYMOND, G., WALKER, P., (Broadleaf Capital International), Project Risk
Management Guidelines Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements, John Wiley &
Sons Ltd, May, 2005
[4] MARRISON, C., The Fundamentals of Risk Measurement, New York, McGraw Hill, 2002
[5] RETScreen International Clean Energy Decision Support Centre, Wind Energy Project Analysis,
CANMET Energy Technology Centre in corporation with NASA, UNEP and GEF, 2003
[6] HOWATSON, A., CHURCHILL, J. L., International Experience With Implementing Wind Energy, The
Conference Board of Canada, February, 2006
[7] Wind Turbines IEC 61400-1, IEC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2005
[8] Marsh-Mercer Human Resource Consulting − Mercer Delta Organisational Consulting, Scoping Study
on Financial Risk Management Instruments for Renewable Energy Projects, United Nation Division of
Technology, Industry and Economics, 2002
[9] »UPI∆, M. E., TUMMALA, V.M.R., Savremeno odluËivanje: metoda i primena, NauËna knjiga,
Beograd, 1991.
[10] URAN, V., Isplativost ulaganja vlastitog kapitala u projekt za zajedniËku proizvodnju toplinske i
elektriËne energije, Energija, god. 54(2005), br. 3, Zagreb
[11] ÆIKOVI∆, S., Formiranje optimalnog portfelja hrvatskih dionica i mjerenje træiπnog rizika primjenom
VaR metode, magistarski rad, SveuËiliπte u Ljubljani, Ekonomski fakultet, Ljubljana, 2005.
[12] http://office.microsoft.com
[13] http://www.simularsoft.com.ar
[14] BERNASCONI, J., (ABB Switzerland Ltd., Corporate Research), Risk Tutorial, ABB Review, April,
2004
Uredniπtvo primilo rukopis: Manuscript received on:

2007-07-09 2007-07-09
PrihvaÊeno: Accepted on:

2007-07-15 2007-07-15

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MODELIRANJE PROJEKTNIH

RIZIKA U RAZVOJU PROJEKTA

Projekt izgradnje vjetroelektrane je viπegodiπnji sloæeni projekt, tijekom kojega su sve

Figure 1 provides a schematic presentation of the

tehnika: tehnika: tehnika:

kategorizacija prema odreivanje

tehnika: izrada modela

odreivanje izlaznih tehnika:

3.2 Kvalitativna analiza rizika 3.2 Qualitative risk analysis

determination categorization determination of the analysis of the

technique: technique: technique:

technique: devising the

3.2.1 Rizici u pripremnoj fazi projekta

Etapa / Stage Aktivnosti / Activities Uzroci rizika / Causes of risk

Prostorno-planska dokumentacija / Physical − zaπtiÊenost zemljiπta (Ëesto u Republici Hrvatskoj) / land

Imovinsko-pravni odnosi / − negativan stav vlasnika prema planiranom projektu / negative

Utvrivanje pristupaËnost lokacije / − nepostojanje putova koji bi zadovoljili potrebe izgradnje VE /

Mjerenje Mjerenje vjetropotencijala / Measurement of the − nekvalitetno mjerenje / poor

Rjeπavanje imovinsko-pravnih pitanja / − nemoguÊnost dobivanja prava graenja / the impossibility of

3.2.2 Rizici u fazi izgradnje 3.2.2 Risks in the construction phase

Etapa / Stage Aktivnosti / Activities Uzroci rizika / Causes of risk

Montaæa / Installation − montaæu radi dobavljaË pa on preuzima sve rizike / installation

3.2.3 Rizici u fazi eksploatacije 3.2.3 Risks in the exploitation phase

Tablica 3 − Rizici u fazi eksploatacije vjetroelektrane

Etapa / Stage Aktivnosti / Activities Uzroci rizika / Causes of risk

3.3 Kvantitativna analiza rizika 3.3 Quantitative risk analysis

U matematiËkim proraËunima, nesigurnosti su In mathematical calculations, uncertainties are

Figure 2 presents the quantitative risk analysis as

Ulazne razdiobe vjerojatnosti / Model (spreadsheet) / Izlazna razdioba vjerojatnosti /

3.4 Evaluacija rizika 3.4 Risk evaluation

Razvojem menadæerskog pristupa ﬁnanciranju i Through the development of a managerial ap-

4.1 Programski dodaci koriπteni pri razvoju modela

4.2 Opis modela 4.2 Model description

Koraci pri simuliranju su sljedeÊi: The steps in simulation are as follows:

− deﬁniranje ulaznih varijabli, − the deﬁnition of the input variables,

4.3 Deﬁniranje ulaznih varijabli 4.3 Deﬁnition of input variables

Godiπnja proizvodnja / Annual production (MWh)

gdje su: where:

»SV − Ëista sadaπnja vrijednost, NPV − net present value,

4.5 Odreivanje korelacija 4.5 Determination of correlations

Ukupna investicija / Total investment (103 HRK)

Tablica 4 − KljuËni podaci razdiobe vjerojatnosti varijable ukupna investicija

Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value (103 HRK)

Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 145 944

Maksimum / Maximum 155 510

Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 2 694

Raspon / Range 16 392

Vjerojatnost se raËuna integriranjem po funkciji Probability is calculated by the integration of the

Ukupna investicija / Total investment (103 HRK)

Razdoblje povrata investicije / Payback period (Godina / Year)

Tablica 5 − KljuËni podaci razdiobe vjerojatnosti varijable razdoblje povrata investicije

Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value (Godina/Year)

Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 14,83

Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 4,31

Razdoblje povrata investicije / Payback period (Godina / Year)

5.3 »ista sadaπnja vrijednost 5.3 Net present value

»ista sadaπnja vrijednost / Net present value (103 HRK)

Podatak / Data Vrijednost / Value (103 HRK)

Srednja vrijednost / Mean value 2 324

Maksimum / Maximum 29 105

Standardna devijacija / Standard deviation 11 744

Raspon / Range 53 606

»ista sadaπnja vrijednost / Net present value (103 HRK)