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For beginners, starting stock options can be very daunting, with all the
new terms and concepts. This guide will hopefully shed some light on
options for you with its simpler explanations.
Options are another form of security that you can invest and trade in
the stock market. Like futures, they are considered derivatives of - or
based on - normal stocks.
The most widely used method of explaining this is via the housing
industry:
Imagine that you just found your dream home, but can't afford the Rs
100,000 you need to buy it today. You then contact the owner, and
the both of you agree to a contract where you get the right to buy the
house in 6 months' time at say Rs 110,000 (taking into account the
rising cost of housing).
However, since you could possibly run away without buying the house,
leaving the owner waiting 6 months for nothing, you agree to pay him
a token "down payment" or premium, of Rs 5,000 for the right to buy
his house.
On the other hand, if the price of the house drops to Rs 80,000, you
can decide not to buy it, since you have the right, but not the
obligation, to buy it. So all you've lost is the initial Rs 5,000 premium
you spent to lock in the contract.
When you buy an option, you get the right, but not the
obligation, to buy the related stock at a future date, but
at a price you specify now. If the stock's market value
rises above your agreed-upon price, you profit. If the
stock's value crashes, all you've lost is your premium.
Calls and Puts - Buying Stock Options
One reason why investors like buying stock options is because you can
profit from them whether your stock goes up in price, or down. This
differs from buying normal stocks, where you only make money when
your stock goes up in price.
Basically, when buying stock options, you would buy a Call Option if
you expect the underlying stock price to go up. Conversely, you would
buy Put Options on a stock which you expect to drop.
You Call Up your friend to talk, and when you're done, you Put Down
the phone.
Easy to remember isn't it? The call option is for when you expect the
stock to go up, otherwise known as a Long Position. Put options are for
when you expect the stock to go down, otherwise known as Short
Positions.
While you only profit with stocks when they go up, you can
profit with options both when the stock goes up or
down. The 2 basic types of options are Calls and Puts.
Remember: you Call Up a friend, and you Put Down the
phone when you're done.
Now comes the tricky part. If a Call Option gives you the right, but not
the obligation, to buy a stock at a later date, what do Put Options do?
Exactly the opposite. Put Options give you the right, but not the
obligation, to sell a stock at a later date.
Suffice to say at this point that when buying stock options, you would
buy Put Options when you expect the price of the related stock to go
down.
So, to repeat the difference between Calls and Puts, you would buy a
Call option if you expect the stock in question to go up, and you would
buy Put options if you expect the stock to go down.
Now that we understand the basic concept of option trading, it's time
to mention the terminology used in the option trading world.
Premium - The premium is the amount that you pay up front for the
option. This amount is once-off and non-refundable.
Strike Price - The strike price is the amount that you agree to pay for
the stock at a later date.
Underlying Stock - The underlying stock is the stock for which you
are purchasing the option.
Expiration Date - The expiration date is the last day for you to
exercise your option. If you don't exercise it by then, your option will
expire worthless. In the United States, the expiration date is the 3rd
Friday of the month. So if you have a June option, that option will
expire on the 3rd Friday of June.
Scenario Scenario
Item
1 2
Initial Premium Rs 5,000 Rs 5,000
Rs Rs
Strike Price
110,000 110,000
Expiration Date 6 months 6 months
House Market Rs
Rs 80,000
Value 200,000
In-The-Money? In Out
Profit Rs 85,000 - Rs 5,000
Now let's look at an option investing example in the stock market:
You decide to buy a June Call Option for ABC, with a Strike Price of
Rs 20.00, and an Expiration Date of the 3rd Friday of June (options
always expire on the 3rd Friday of the month)(In India, it’s the last
Thursday of the Month). The Premium for the option is Rs 0.75. As
of now on the 1st of June, the option is Out-Of-The-Money, since
ABC's price of Rs 19.00 is still below your Strike Price of Rs 20.00
On the 3rd Friday of June, you find that ABC has increased in price by
Rs 3.00 bringing it up to Rs 22.00. Your option is now In-The-Money,
and you could exercise it now for a profit. Your profit would be the
market value, minus your strike price, minus your premium, which is Rs
22 - Rs 20 - Rs 0.75 = Rs 1.25.
3rd
ABC 1st June
Friday
Initial Premium Rs 0.75 Rs 0.75
Strike Price Rs 20.00 Rs 20.00
3rd 3rd
Expiration Date
Friday Friday
Current Stock
Rs 19.00 Rs 22.00
Price
In-The-Money? Out In
Profit - Rs 0.75 Rs 1.25
Be aware that since each option contract covers 100 underlying shares,
all costs and profits should be multiplied by 100 for the proper
perspective.
And also be aware that option investing in general is very risky, and
should only be done after understanding stock options intimately. Since
options provide such a large amount of leverage (you can earn a larger
percentage, as well as lose a larger percentage), you could lose a
fortune without properly understanding stock options.
Option Strategies
If the price of the stock goes up, your Put Option expires worthless,
but your original stock investment will be giving you profit. If the price
goes down, your losses in your stock investment will be reduced by
your Put Option, which will be worth more as the price drops.
These hedging strategies will lower your profit slightly, since you need
to spend extra to buy the Put Option for hedging, but they give you a
safety net in case your stock goes down.
Hedging strategies are suitable for mildly bullish stocks, where you
expect the stock to go up, but fear that it might go down. If you think
the stock will go down, you would not use hedging strategies. You
would sell the stock and just buy put options.
Firstly, you can exercise the option before the expiration date to
buy the underlying stock.
Secondly, you can let the option expire worthless, i.e. don't do
anything.
The third and most popular of the option strategies would be to
sell the option.
Buying options is like buying stocks. You buy them on the open
market, where there will be other people buying and selling the same
options. As such, there will be Bid and Ask prices for options, same as
for stocks.
Let's assume that a week later, on the 8th of June, the price for the
ABC stock has gone up to Rs 24.00. That means our option is now In-
The-Money by Rs 4, since our strike price is Rs 20 and the current
value is Rs 24, allowing us to theoretically exercise the option and buy
the stock at Rs 20, and immediately sell it at Rs 24 for a Rs 4 profit.
(Remember that since we are trading American Options, we can
exercise anytime before expiration day.)
Now why would we want to buy both a Call and a Put? Calls are for
when you expect the stock to go up, and Puts are for when you expect
the stock to go down, right?
For example, you know that ABC's annual report is coming out this
week, but do not know whether they will exceed expectations or not.
You could assume that the stock price will be quite volatile, but since
you don't know the news in the annual report, you wouldn't have a
clue which direction the stock will move.
If the price of the stock shoots up, your Call will be way In-The-Money,
and your Put will be worthless. If the price plummets, your Put will be
way In-The-Money, and your Call will be worthless.
This is safer than buying either just a Call or just a Put. If you just
bought a one-sided option, and the price goes the wrong way, you're
looking at possibly losing your entire premium investment. In the case
of Straddles, you will be safe either way, though you are spending
more initially since you have to pay the premiums of both the Call and
the Put.
For stock XYZ, let's imagine the share price is now sitting at Rs 63.
There is news that a legal suit against XYZ will conclude tomorrow. No
matter the result of the suit, you know that there will be volatility. If
they win, the price will jump. If they lose, the price will plummet.
Fast forward 2 days. XYZ won the legal battle! Investors are more
confident of the stock and the price jumps to Rs 72. The Rs 65 Call is
now Rs 7 In-The-Money and its premium is now Rs 8.00. The Rs 65
Put is now Way-Out-Of-The-Money and its premium is now Rs 0.25.
If we close out both positions and sell both options, we would cash in
Rs 8.00 + Rs 0.25 = Rs 8.25. That's a profit of Rs 4.50 on our initial
Rs 3.75 investment!
If Straddles are so good, why doesn't everybody use them for every
investment?
It fails when the stock price doesn't move. If the price of the stock
hovers around the initial price, both the Call and the Put will not be that
much In-The-Money.
So in the case where the stock price doesn't move, the premiums of
both the Call and Put will slowly decay, and we could end up losing a
large percentage of our investment. The bottom line is: for an option
straddle strategy to be profitable, there has to be volatility, and a
marked movement in the stock price.
Basically, it works for stocks that are deemed too "boring" for option
plays.
To recap, buying a call option gives you the right, but not the
obligation, to buy a stock at a specified price at a specified date.
Conversely, if you sell a call option, you now have the obligation to sell
the stock to the option buyer at the agreed upon price at the specified
date.
Taking a look at our housing example earlier on, the owner of the
house basically wrote / sold an option to us by promising to sell us the
house at the agreed price. We could decide whether we wanted to buy
the house, but if we did want to buy it, the house owner is required to
sell it. He does not have the luxury of saying no.
Scary isn't it? Who would want to enter a contract with such
obligations?
The good part is, when you sell an option, you receive the Premium of
the option. Which means you instantly make money from a
transaction.
To recap: when you buy an option, you buy the option to Open a
Position, and sell it later on to Close the Position. Similarly, when you
Write options, you write the option to Open the Position, and you must
Close the Position somehow, whether it's by letting the option expire
worthless, or by buying the option back.
In the case of selling Call options, remember that Call options are
more In-The-Money the higher the stock price goes. So if you sell a
Call option and the underlying stock price goes down below the
option's strike price (meaning the option becomes Out-Of-The-Money),
the option will expire worthless. You therefore don't need to do a
thing, and can pocket the profit you earned by selling the option.
However, the danger happens when the stock price keeps climbing. If
it keeps going up, it will never become worthless, and come expiration
day, someone is going to exercise the option and buy the stock from
you. You have been Called Out.
The problem is, you don't own the stock! You would need to buy the
stock at the current market price (which has gone up), and sell the
stock to the option buyer at the previously agreed strike price, which
would have been lower. This would cost you a lot!
Say the price of stock ABC is now sitting at Rs 18. You sell a Call
option for a strike price of Rs 20, expecting the stock to hover around
the Rs 18 level. Let's say you earned Rs 1.00 on the option premium
(which is Rs 2 Out-Of-The-Money).
Scenario
ABC Scenario 2
1
Premium Earned Rs 1.00 Rs 1.00
Strike Price Rs 20 Rs 20
Final Stock Price Rs 19 Rs 26
In-The-Money? Out Rs 1 In Rs 26
Cost of Stock Purchase --- Rs 26
Earnings from Stock Sale --- Rs 20
Total Profit Rs 1.00 - Rs 5.00
And that's just if the stock price goes up to Rs 26. What if it had gone
higher, to say Rs 36? Your losses would increase by another Rs 10.
Considering that one contract covers 100 (different lot size for
different scripts) underlying shares, that's a lot of money. Therefore,
selling stock options on their own, also known as selling Naked or
Uncovered options, is extremely risky.
By buying the shares, we eliminate the risk of having to buy the shares
later at a higher price in case we get called out. This is called covering
your call writing, ie. we just wrote a Covered Call.
Let's return to our numerical example, but this time we write covered
calls on it. Previously, we sold a Rs 20 Call option for a premium of Rs
1.00 when the stock was currently at Rs 18. This time, we also bought
100 shares of the stock at Rs 18.
Let's look at 2 scenarios, one where the stock went down in price, and
another where the stock climbs above the option strike price.
Compare this with just a simple purchase of the stock. When we write
covered calls, ie. selling an option together with buying the stock, we
actually increase our loss tolerance by the option's premium amount. In
this example, we increased out loss tolerance by the option premium of
Rs 1, meaning we could afford to have the stock drop Rs 1 without
actually losing anything.
That is our break even level. As long as the stock price stays above that
level, we profit. Anything less and we lose. That's why we need to look
at stable or moderately bullish stocks to consider for writing covered
calls.
Scenario Scenario
ABC
1 2
Cost of Stock Rs 18.00 Rs 18.00
Premium Earned Rs 1.00 Rs 1.00
Strike Price Rs 20 Rs 20
Final Stock Price Rs 17 Rs 26
In-The-Money? Out Rs 3 In Rs 26
Earnings from Stock Sale --- Rs 20
Change in Value of Held
-Rs 1.00 ---
Stock
Still Keep the Stock? Yes No
Total Profit Rs 0.00 Rs 3.00
Now let's take a look again at Scenario 1. The Call option has expired
worthless, and we keep the stock. This means that month after month
we can keep selling stock options on those 100 shares we own, and as
long as we don't get called out, we can make constant monthly income!
And what if we get called out? As Scenario 2 shows, getting called out
still earns us a profit!
On a side note, some investors who have held particular stocks that
haven't moved for a long time can also decide to write Covered Calls.
They can sell call options on their stock, and either earn monthly
income on the stocks, or (sometimes hopefully!) get called out and sell
their stocks, getting back their capital to invest elsewhere.
By buying one option and selling another, you limit your risk, since you
know the exact difference in either the expiration date or strike price
(or both) between the two options. This difference is known as the
spread, hence the name of this spread treading technique.
Various strategies can be carried out using this technique. The main
ones are vertical spreads, horizontal spreads and diagonal spreads.
So we pay Rs 1 for the Rs 50 Call, and earn Rs 0.25 off the Rs 55 Call,
giving us a total cost of Rs 0.75.
Two things can happen. The stock can either rise, as predicted, or drop
below the current price. Let's look at the 2 scenarios:
Here's where the - limited risk / limited profit - expression comes in.
At a current price of Rs 60, the Rs 50 Call would be Rs 10 In-The-
Money and would have a premium of Rs 11. The Rs 55 Call would be
Rs 5 In-The-Money and would have a premium of Rs 6. Closing the
position will still give us Rs 5, and still give us a nett gain of Rs 4.25.
In tabular format:
Resulting Stock
Rs 45 Rs 50 Rs 55 Rs 60
Price
Premium of Rs 50
--- Rs 1 Rs 6 Rs 11
Call
Premium of Rs 55 Rs
--- Rs 1 Rs 6
Call 0.25
Difference in Rs
--- Rs 5 Rs 5
Premium 0.75
Rs Rs Rs Rs
Initial Cost
0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
-Rs Rs Rs
Total Profit Rs 0
0.75 4.25 4.25
Once both Calls are In-The-Money, our profit will always be limited by
the difference between the strike prices of the 2 Calls, minus the
amount we paid at the start.
As a general rule, once the stock value goes above the lower Call (the
Rs 50 Call in this example), we start to earn profit. And when it goes
above the higher Call (the Rs 55 Call in this example), we reach our
maximum profit.
If we had just done a simple Call option, we would have had to spend
the Rs 1 required to buy the Rs 50 Call. In this spread trading exercise,
we only had to spend Rs 0.75, hence the - limited risk - expression. So
you are risking less, but you will also profit less, since any price
movement beyond the higher Call will not earn you any more profit.
Hence this strategy is suitable for moderately bullish stocks.
Bull Put Spreads are strategies that are also used in a bullish market.
Similar to the Bull Call Spread, Bull Put Spreads will earn you limited
profit in an uptrending stock. We implement Bull Put Spreads by buying
a Put Option, and by selling another Put Option of a higher strike price.
The Bear Spreads are similar to the Bull Spreads but work in the
opposite direction. We would buy an option, then sell an option of a
lower strike price, since we anticipate the stock price dropping.
Let's look at an example. Let's say we are now in the middle of June.
We decide to perform a Horizontal Spread on a stock. For a particular
strike price, let's say the August option has a premium of Rs 4, and the
September option has a premium of Rs 4.50.
To initiate a Horizontal Spread, we would Sell the nearer option (in this
case August), and buy the further option (in this case September). So
we earn Rs 4.00 from the sale and spend Rs 4.50 on the purchase,
netting us a Rs 0.50 cost.
We hope you have enjoyed this guide, and benefited from the simpler
terms we've used to describe option trading. Do note that throughout
the guide, we have not taken into account additional costs such as
commissions and differences in bid/ask prices. Including these would
have complicated this guide more than we wanted. Just note that these
costs exist and will add to your costs and lower your profits.
Advanced Options Strategies Guide
This guide assumes that you already have a basic understanding of the
fundamentals of option trading, such as buying and selling calls and
puts. If you wish to read up on the foundations of option trading, do
check out our Option Basics Guide.
A synthetic trade involves buying a call and selling a put with the same
strike price and expiration date or vice versa depending on your
outlook for the stock. A Long Synthetic is the name for the bullish
trade option, where a call is bought and a put is sold.
The effect of these call and put synthetics is similar to just buying a
basic call option, where your profits are unlimited the higher the
stock climbs. However, there are a few key differences. Firstly, a long
synthetic requires you to sell a put option. Doing so means you will
need to close this position before expiration to prevent the put
option being exercised.
As can be seen in the chart below, buying a basic call option means
that the maximum you will lose is the premium of that call. However,
you won't start to see profits till the stock climbs a bit higher than the
strike price of the option. In a long synthetic, selling a simultaneous
put option changes both these characteristics.
By combing the profit charts of the call purchase and put sale, it can
be seen that the potential loss of the trade has become
unlimited. In a basic call option, the maximum you will lose is the
premium you spent buying that call. In a long synthetic however, you
have an open put option which you will need to buy back before
expiration, and that put option will cost more the lower the stock price
becomes.
However, with this extra risk comes couple of key benefits. Firstly,
because you are selling a put option (thus earning premium) together
with buying a call, the long synthetic becomes cheaper than simply
buying a call. In addition, by adding the profit charts of the call
purchase and put sale together, you can see that this position starts to
see a profit as soon as the stock goes over the strike price.
Call and put synthetics involve buying a call and selling a
put at the same strike price, or vice versa. A long
synthetic is a bullish strategy and involves buying a call
and selling a put. It has unlimited profit as the stock
price climbs, and unlimited loss as the stock price falls.
Since options are sold, this position needs to be closed
before expiration.
The backspread position used when you are bullish on the stock is
known as a Call Backspread, since call options are used to create this
position. The call backspread is created by buying a certain number of
Out-of-The-Money (OTM) call options (i.e. call options whose strike
price is higher than the current stock price), and selling a lesser
number of In-The-Money (ITM) call options (i.e. call options whose
strike price is lower than the current stock price). You can create a call
backspread by buying and selling any number of call options, but for
the purposes of this article, we will talk about buying 2 OTM call
options and selling 1 ITM call option.
Because you are selling a call option that is ITM and buying 2 call
options that are OTM, this position should be a credit position, that is
you will earn a premium by opening a call backspread. However,
because you are selling an option, you are not able to allow this
position to expire. You will need to buy back the option before
expiration date, which brings us to the risks involved with this position.
If the stock price goes below the strike price of the call option that was
sold (the ITM price), you can allow the position to expire since the calls
at both strike prices are now worthless. Your profit in this case would
be the initial premium made when the position was opened. If the
stock moves above that ITM strike price but is still below the strike of
the 2 calls that you bought (the OTM price), you will be in trouble. The
2 calls with the OTM strike price would still be worthless, but the call
you sold at the ITM strike price would be worth something and will
need to be bought back before expiration. Once the stock moves
above the OTM strike price, your profits are limitless. The ITM call will
still increase in value (and must still be bought back), but that cost is
negated by the fact that you now have the 2 calls (bought at the OTM
strike price) gaining value just as quickly and can be sold for profit.
A call backspread is created by buying 2 out-of-the-
money calls and selling 1 in-the-money call, earning
you a net credit premium. It is meant for stocks that are
high volatility and bullish. You earn unlimited profit if
the stock climbs. If the stock falls, you get to keep your
original net credit premium. If the stock price doesn't
move, you will incur a loss.
As can be seen from its profit profile, the long strangle is ideal for
volatile stocks whose price is expected to either climb or crash in the
near future. This can be a useful strategy to be employed for stocks
just before their earnings reports are released. A good report might
cause the stock to skyrocket, while a bad report could cause it to
crash. Similarly, other news such as research results or lawsuit
resolutions that affect the stock could be triggers for high volatility.
A Long Strangle is a strategy for stocks with high
volatility but whose direction is uncertain. It is created
by buying an OTM call option and an OTM put option
with the same expiration date. If the stock climbs or falls,
potential profits are unlimited. If the stock price doesn't
move, you lose the premium spent on this position.
Note that the long and short strangles are very similar to the straddle
strategies. The difference is that the 2 options in the straddle have the
same strike price, while a strangle's options have 2 separate strike
prices. This difference affects the initial premium of the options (a
straddle's premiums will be higher), and the extra room for error in
the strangle's strike prices.
The Long Butterfly can be created using either all call options or all
put options. Due to put-call parity, a long butterfly created using call
options will behave like a long butterfly created using put options. In
other words, it doesn't really matter whether you use calls or puts to
create your long butterfly. Our example here will focus on the version
using call options.
This makes the long butterfly a good neutral option strategy for
low volatility, since you are betting on the stock price not moving
much in order to collect maximum profits. It is also a low-risk
strategy, since your losses are limited if the stock crashes or climbs
unexpectedly. Unfortunately, this is accompanied by limited profits as
well. As has been mentioned above, the long butterfly can also be
created using all put options instead of all call options.
A long butterfly involves buying an ITM call, selling 2
ATM calls and buying an OTM call. It is a neutral low-risk
strategy for low volatility stocks. You reach maximum
limited profits if the stock doesn't move much. You
will incur maximum limited losses if the stock climbs
too high or falls too low.
One warning about both long and short butterfly trading: these
positions involve buying and selling options at 3 strike prices. For most
option brokers, this means you will be paying 3 commissions to open
the position, and another 3 commissions to close it. You will need to
consider these extra commissions (which differ from broker to broker)
when trying to determine if the butterfly will be profitable for your
circumstances.
Welcome to the Technical Analysis Basics
Guide!
To gauge a stock's fair value, the fundamental analyst will look at the
"basics" of a company. He will check the company's management
practice, cash flow, total assets, earnings and revenue, debt, paid-up
capital and so forth, to determine exactly how much the company's
stock should be worth.
Once he has that value, he will compare it with the current stock price.
If the stock price is cheaper than his estimation of its fair value, he will
conclude that the stock is undervalued and worth buying.
So which method is better? There are pros and cons to both methods,
and both are utilized in the market. However, when we're dealing with
options, the preferred method is using Technical Analysis trends.
Stock and market levels are easily affected by external forces such as
global terrorism, oil prices, inflation and political change, as well as
news that is directly related to the stock in question.
Technical Indicators
The indicators generally take the stock's price data from the last few
periods (for example the last 30 days). They use that data to create a
trend or chart to indicate what has been happening to the stock, and
hopefully predict what may happen in the future.
On the other hand, Lagging Indicators are not good when predicting
future rallies or pullbacks. They can show what trends have developed
until the current point, but are not able to predict the next few days'
movement.
On the other hand, Leading Indicators, as the name implies, are better
at predicting possible future price rallies and crashes. Most Leading
Indicators are momentum indicators, gauging the momentum of a
stock price's movements.
In fact, investors are advised not to base their decisions on just one
indicator. After all, no indicator is perfect. All indicators can produce
false signals from time to time. Therefore, it is recommended that
investors take 2 or 3 indicators they are comfortable with, and base
their decisions on them (ie. only buy when all 3 indicators tell you to
buy).
A 20-day average will take the average of the stock's closing price for
the 20 most recent trading days. The next day, the new day's stock
price will be added to the average, and the oldest price of the previous
20 days will be taken out. This will create a slowly-moving trend of the
stock's price, in this case a 20-day moving average, as seen in the
chart below.
As seen above, the actual price pattern of the stock is very volatile,
with a single day's price changing by over Rs 3. However, once we
apply a 20-day indicator to it, the pattern is smoothed, and we can see
a trend develop. As can be seen in early February, even though the
stock's price jumped more than Rs 5, the moving average did not
change much, since it took into account the last 20 days worth of data,
and smoothed the trendline.
For example, in mid February, just looking at the stock's price pattern,
it seemed that the stock had stopped its upwards trend and was
beginning to go down. However, the moving averages indicated that
the stock was still in a strong uptrend which would continue till early
March. Heeding the moving averages would have kept investors in the
stock during the rally in late February.
Likewise, the spike in the stock price in late May and early June might
have tempted investors to buy into the stock again. However, the
moving averages told a different story. The moving average was flat
and indicated that an uptrend had not developed. True enough, the
stock started trading downwards from early June right into July.
In late May, there was a sudden surge in RYL's stock price. The
exponential moving average, being more sensitive, reacted quickly and
started trending upwards. On the other hand, the simple moving
average still took into account the previous down days, and did not
even register an upward trend till the rally was almost over!
Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts.com
Both have their own merit. The simple moving average is less prone to
whipsaws and false alarms, and will only indicate trends when the
price pattern is more pronounced, while the exponential moving
average might register false alarms.
Looking at the RYL chart above, the stock price crossed upwards from
below the exponential moving average in late Februrary and late May,
indicating that investors are starting to buy the stock and the trend is
moving upwards. These would be good times to buy call options or any
bullish option strategy on the stock.
Conversely, at the end of March and early July, the stock price crossed
below the exponential moving average, indicating that it was time to
implement bearish option strategies.
However, it can be seen that the stock price crossed the exponential
moving average many times in those 6 months, creating a lot of false
alarms. Heeding every crossover would have been a very painful and
costly experience.
However, by the time the stock price crosses the 50-Day exponential
moving average, the rally or crash is almost over. In other words, the
longer the period being averaged, the less sensitive it is, and the
slower it is to react.
Please be reminded that this indicator should not be used on its own,
but rather with one or two additional indicators, in order to confirm
any signals.
Different periods can be used for moving averages. The
longer the period, the more confirmed the trend, but
the less sensitive it is to sudden price movements.
The MACD charts are oscillating indicators, meaning that they move
above and below a centerline or zero point. As with other oscillating
and momentum indicators, a very high value indicates that the stock is
overbought and will likely drop soon. Conversely, a consistently low
value indicates that the stock is oversold and is likely to climb.
There are 2 parts to the indicator MACD. We will focus on the first part
first, which is based on the stock's 12-Day and 26-Day EMA. As can be
seen on the chart below, the 12-Day EMA (in blue) is the faster EMA
while the 26-Day (in red) is slower.
The logic behind using a faster and slower EMA is that this can be used
to gauge momentum. When the faster (in this case 12-Day) EMA is
above the slower 26-Day EMA, the stock is in an uptrend, and vice
versa. If the 12-Day EMA is increasing much faster than the 26-Day
EMA, the uptrend is becoming stronger and more pronounced.
Conversely, when the 12-Day EMA starts slowing down, and the 26-
Day begins to near it, the stock movement's momentum is beginning
to fade, indicating the end of the uptrend.
Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts.com
The MACD charts use these 2 EMA by taking the difference between
them and plotting a new line. In the chart above, this new line is the
thick black line in the middle chart.
When the 12-Day and 26-Day EMA are at the same value, the MACD
line is at zero, such as in early February and mid June. When the 12-
Day EMA is higher than the 26-Day EMA, the MACD line will be in
positive territory. The further the 12-Day EMA is from the 26-Day
EMA, the further the MACD line is from its centerline or zero value.
This line on its own doesn't tell much more than a moving average. It
becomes more useful when we take into account its 9-Day EMA. This is
the third value when we talk of 12-26-9 MACD charts. Note that the 9-
Day EMA is an EMA of the MACD line, not of the stock price. This EMA
(the thin blue line alongside the MACD line) acts like a normal EMA and
smoothes the MACD line.
The 9-Day EMA acts as a signal line or trigger line for the MACD. When
the MACD line crosses above the 9-Day EMA from below, it indicates
that the downtrend is over and a new uptrend is forming. Time to
consider bullish strategies. This can be seen in early February and mid
May.
Conversely, when the indicator MACD line drops below its 9-Day EMA,
a new downtrend is forming and its time to implement bearish
strategies. This can be seen on the chart in early March and early
April.
So when the MACD line crosses above its 9-Day EMA, the MACD
histogram will cross above zero. In order words, a bullish signal is
obtained when the MACD histogram crosses above zero, and a bearish
signal is obtained when it crosses below zero.
Let's look now at the chart below. It is the same chart as the one
above, but with different markings. Notice the thick red line drawn on
the MACD histogram. The red line shows that the MACD histogram
reached a peak in mid February, and reached a subsequent smaller
peak in the beginning of March. These progressively lower peaks
constitue what is known as a negative divergence.
Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts.com
The primary reason this happened is that during the month of March,
the stock was in a trading range, with lower price fluctuations. Note
that the MACD line was hovering just above and below zero during this
month. Periods of stability and low volitility usually precede a sudden
change, the direction of which is usually uncertain. We discuss this
phenomenon further when describing Bollinger Bands.
As such, we again remind you that individual indicators such as the
Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) charts
should not be used on their own, but rather with one or two additional
indicators of different types, in order to confirm any signals and
prevent false alarms.
While the RSI can tell us when a stock is overbought or oversold, its
true value is its ability to indicate when the stock is coming out of
overbought or oversold conditions, ie. when the stock is going to move
back towards the moving average. So the points to watch are those
when the RSI moves below 70 from above, or moves above 30 from
below.
In the chart above, the RSI crossed below 70 in March, and again in
June. It also crossed above 30 in May. Therefore, we would implement
bearish strategies in March and June, and bullish strategies in May.
Note that the RSI produced signals days (even more than a week)
before the 20-Day EMA did in the chart above. This is due to the fact
that the RSI, being a momentum indicator, is a leading indicator and
can predict price movement before it happens.
However, this might not be a good thing, as can be seen in March. The
RSI produced a bearish signal a month before the actual downturn
happened. In the world of options trading, a month is a long time.
For example, in the chart below, the RSI formed a negative divergence
in January 2004. This is despite the fact that the actual stock price was
making higher peaks. Sure enough, the negative divergence correctly
predicted a sharp price drop in early February.
If we extrapolate further, we can see that after January, the RSI was
forming lower and lower peaks all the way till June. This is a very
bearish sign.
Normally, we use the 20-Day simple moving average and its standard
deviations to create Bollinger Bands. Strategies some investors use
include shorter- or longer-term Bollinger Bands depending on their
needs. Shorter-term Bollinger Bands strategies (less than 20-Days)
are more sensitive to price fluctuations, while longer-term Bollinger
Bands (more than 20-Days) are more conservative.
The Bollinger Band theory will not indicate exactly which point to buy
or sell an option or stock. It is meant to be used as a guide (or band)
with which to gauge a stock's volatility.
When a stock's price is very volatile, the Bollinger Bands will be far
apart. In the chart below, these periods can be seen in early March,
mid April and mid May. On the other hand, when there is little price
fluctuation, hence low volatility, the Bollinger Bands will be in a tight
range. This can be seen in the circled sections in February, late March
and late June.
Click here to view a larger updated version of the chart at Stockcharts.com
As for how we use the Bollinger Band theory, here are a couple of
guidelines.
When the actual stock price moves away from the Bands back towards
the moving average, it can be taken as a signal that the price trend
has slowed, and will move back towards the moving average.
However, it is common for the price to bounce off the Bands a second
time before a confirmed move towards the moving average.
From the chart, the ADX indicates that from late February to mid April,
the stock was in a strong trend, in this case an upward trend. For this
stock, the ADX indicator did not go below 20, which indicates that
there wasn't a period where the stock was trading flat. This is quite
accurate, since it can be seen from the stock price that the first 3
months was an uptrend and the last 3 months was a downtrend.
In the chart above, the ADX indicator produced a signal in mid April
indicating that the trend (in this case upwards) is fading. In early July,
the ADX indicator briefly touched 20 from above and immediately
turned back up. This indicates that momentum is picking up and a new
trend (in this case downwards) is forming.
We hope you have enjoyed this guide, and the way we described the
concepts of technical analysis. There are many technical indicators out
there. We chose to cover these 5 indicators in order to give you a feel
of the various types in existance. It is good practice to take 2 or 3
indicators of different types, and using signals from all of them to
make decisions.