Final exam of CIVL 2160, Fall 2014 Dec 9, 2014 Name: HKUST ID: CIVL 2160 ID:. Short questions (1%) 1. For regression model checking, what are the three things you need to check on ¢? random, normal distribution, mean value = 0 2. What is the z-value corresponding to a left-tail probability of 5%, given dof = 5? 3. What is the chi-square value corresponding to a right-tail probability of 10%, given dof= 7? 12.02 4, What is the /value corresponding to a left-tail probability of 5%, given dof I = 5 and dof=3? 0.185, What is the key in MCS? (answers are not computer, Excel. electricity, etc...) random number generator C large Semple aa) Uisa random number from 0 to 1, describe how to use it to generate a random Y following normal distribution with mean = 5 and SD = 2? ‘generate Z = (2U-1) + (2U-1) + (2U-1 Z=(X-5)/2 =>X=2Z+5 7. Sample mean should be a constant, is that correct? no 8. For a simple linear regression model Y = aX +b, if D(y, -(ax, +8)) =0. can R’ be equal to 0.8? ves (ax, +8))°}=0, can R’ be 9. For a simple linear regression model Y = aX + b, if D{(y, equal to 0.8? no, 10. Given 30, 25, and 22 are the three samples you have, what is the point e population variance (an unbiased estimating)? 16.3Long questions (6%) Given regression function as Y = aX?, 1) find a, 2) R? ‘ 2 fet(ayi- 4 ) 2 Qtigl is ong eat Oo Oa ho sayite 2M aie ee ee sy" 333 i > Sbt = 5 (enw 7 ti) 2 44, ‘The prior PDF about annual major earthquake rate is as follows: al If no earthquake has occurred in the past 7 annual earthquake rate by integrating the’two sources of data? ‘The PDF of poisson distribution are as follows: PDF = (e"¥")/x! po) pesled (9) = —._§m —- if wile) pcel@d PCO 03 "3D 2b p oe reefer): = 2s n0uah o / r(s[G22). &' 6? de Sets yeey P'Cry= 6.396 PU(L)< 0-104 ‘years, what is the Bayesian estimate for Beyesion {roe + np? —4no?- 4 on] in " (no? — 0?) o? (as desired)6. Describe how to use MCS to find the probability of the sum of point = $ in a process of tossing a dice twice. 1. generate random number X1 from 1 to 6 2. generate random number X2 from 1 to 6 B.Y=X1+X2 4. repeat steps 1 to 3 for lots of times (say > 5.000) 5. count how many trials of Y= 5 6. the probability of Y = 5 => how many trials of Y = 5 / total trialbe mow contaden 1. What is the interval estimation for population mean given levetePsiGriicance = 80%. and sample mean = 100 and sample SD = 10 from 900 samples qe SoM S (A yoo - M a yo0. 42 4 : eee jeo Dugpt = (s7F* = SV do