Artikujt Fjalimet Nentor 14 7288 1

Përmbledhje 20 Tetor – 20 Nëntor 2014
Përmbajtja
Artikuj shkencorë nga
1. Federal Reserve System faqe 2
2. Banka Qëndrore Europiane faqe 14
3. Banka e Finlandës faqe 16
4. Bank for International Settlements faqe 17
5. Banka e Austrisë faqe 18
6. Banka e Gjermanisë faqe 19
Fjalime të guvernatorëve faqe 22

INSTITUTI I STUDIMEVE EKONOMIKE DHE BANKARE
Artikuj shkencorë
1. Federal Reserve System
AIG in Hindsight
Robert McDonald, Anna Paulson
The near-failure on September 16, 2008, of American International Group (AIG) was an iconic
moment in the financial crisis. The decision to rescue AIG was controversial at the time and
remains so. Large bets on real estate pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. In one case, AIG
used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential mortgage-
backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), ultimately losing at least
$21 billion and threatening the solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold
insurance on multi-sector CDOs, backed by real estate assets, ultimately losing more than $30
billion. These activities were apparently motivated by a belief that AIG’s real estate bets
would not suffer defaults and were “money-good.” We find that these securities have in fact
suffered write-downs and that the stark “money-good” claim can be rejected.
http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/working_papers/2014/wp_07.cfm
On the Structural Interpretation of the Smets-Wouters “Risk

Premium” Shock
Jonas D. M. Fisher
This article shows that the "risk premium" shock in Smets and Wouters (2007) can be
interpreted as a structural shock to the demand for safe and liquid assets such as short-term
US Treasury securities. Several implications of this interpretation are discussed.
Human Capital Risk, Contract Enforcement, and the

Macroeconomy
Tom Krebs, Moritz Kuhn, Mark L. J. Wright
We use data from the Survey of Consumer Finance and Survey of Income Program
Participation to show that young households with children are under-insured against the risk
that an adult member of the household dies. We develop a tractable macroeconomic
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model with human capital risk, age-dependent returns to human capital investment, and
endogenous borrowing constraints due to the limited pledgeability of human capital (limited
contract enforcement). We show analytically that, consistent with the life insurance data, in
equilibrium young households are borrowing constrained and under-insured against human
capital risk. A calibrated version of the model can quantitatively account for the life-cycle
variation of life- insurance holdings, financial wealth, earnings, and consumption inequality
observed in the US data. Our analysis implies that a reform that makes consumer bankruptcy
more costly, like the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005,
leads to a substantial increase in the volume of both credit and insurance.
Adverse Selection, Risk Sharing and Business Cycles

Marcelo Veracierto
I consider a real business cycle model in which agents have private information about an
idiosyncratic shock to their value of leisure. I consider the mechanism design problem for this
economy and describe a computational method to solve it. This is an important contribution
of the paper since the method could be used to solve a wide class of models with
heterogeneous agents and aggregate uncertainty. Calibrating the model to U.S. data I find a
striking result: That the information frictions that plague the economy have no effects on
business cycle fluctuations.
Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure

of Interest Rates
Andrea Ajello, Luca Benzoni, Olena Chyruk
We propose a no-arbitrage model that jointly explains the dynamics of consumer prices as
well as the nominal and real term structures of risk-free rates. In our framework, distinct core,
food, and energy price series combine into a measure of total inflation to price nominal
Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations: Shocks to
core are more persistent and less volatile than shocks to food and, especially, energy (the
'crust'). We find that a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term
structure of yields and inflation. The model outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par
with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates implied by our
model uncover the presence of a time-varying component in TIPS yields that we attribute to
disruptions in the inflation-indexed bond market. Finally, we find a pronounced declining
pattern in the inflation risk premium that illustrates the changing nature of inflation risk in
nominal Treasuries.
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The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement

and Implications
Andrei A. Levchenko, Jing Zhang
We estimate productivities at the sector level for 72 countries and 5 decades, and examine
how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. In both country
groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster
in sectors that were initially at greater comparative disadvantage. These changes have had
a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. In
the counterfactual scenario in which each country's comparative advantage remained the
same as in the 1960s, and technology in all sectors grew at the same country-specific
average rate, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar,
and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. In this counterfactual scenario, welfare is also
1.6% higher for the median country compared to the baseline. The welfare impact varies
greatly across countries, ranging from −1.1% to +4.3% among OECD countries, and from −6%
to +41.9% among non-OECD countries.
Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal

Austerity in Integrated Economies
Enrique G. Mendoza, Linda L. Tesar, Jing Zhang
What are the macroeconomic effects of tax adjustments in response to large public debt
shocks in highly integrated economies? The answer from standard closed-economy models is
deceptive, because they underestimate the elasticity of capital tax revenues and ignore
cross-country spillovers of tax changes. Instead, we examine this issue using a two-country
model that matches the observed elasticity of the capital tax base by introducing
endogenous capacity utilization and a partial depreciation allowance. Tax hikes have
adverse effects on macro aggregates and welfare, and trigger strong cross-country
externalities. Quantitative analysis calibrated to European data shows that unilateral capital
tax increases cannot restore fiscal solvency, because the dynamic Laffer curve peaks below
the required revenue increase. Unilateral labor tax hikes can do it, but have negative output
and welfare effects at home and raise welfare and output abroad. Large spillovers also imply
that unilateral capital tax hikes are much less costly under autarky than under free trade.
Allowing for one-shot Nash tax competition, the model predicts a “race to the bottom” in
capital taxes and higher labor taxes. The cooperative equilibrium is preferable, but capital
(labor) taxes are still lower (higher) than initially. Moreover, autarky can produce higher
welfare than both Nash and Cooperative equilibria.
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Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit

Crunch
Francisco (Paco) Buera, Juan Pablo Nicolini
We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash in advance
constraints. These two frictions give rise to a non-trivial financial market in a monetary
economy. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a credit-crunch generated
recession. The model can suitable be used to study the effects on the main macroeconomic
variables - and on welfare of each individual - of alternative monetary - and fiscal - policies
following the credit crunch. The model reproduces several features of the recent financial
crisis, like the persistent negative real interest rates, the prolonged period at the zero bound
for the nominal interest rate, the collapse in investment and low inflation, in spite of the very
large increases of liquidity adopted by the government. The policy implications are in sharp
contrast with the prevalent view in most Central Banks, based on the New Keynesian
explanation of the liquidity trap.
Supervisory Stress Tests

Beverly Hirtle, Andreas Lehnert
This article describes the background, design choices and particular details of stress tests used
as part of an overall supervisory regime; that is, their formal integration into the process of the
ongoing prudential supervision of banks and other large financial institutions. We then
describe how the U.S. CCAR/DFAST regime is designed and what that means for the
macroprudential vs. microprudential nature of the U.S. exercises. We argue routine stress tests
have the potential to substantially change the nature of the supervisory process. In addition,
we argue that a great deal depends on the philosophy underpinning modeling decisions,
which has not received as much attention as scenario design, disclosure or other stress test
design choices.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr696.pdf
CDS and Equity Market Reactions to Stock Issuances in the

U.S. Financial Industry: Evidence from the 2002-13 Period
Marcia Millon Cornett, Hamid Mehran, Kevin Pan, Minh Phan, Chenyang Wei
We study market reactions to seasoned equity issuances that were announced by financial
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companies between 2002 and 2013. To assess the risk and valuation implications of these
seasoned equity issuances, we conduct an event analysis using daily credit default swap
(CDS) and stock market pricing data. The major findings of the paper are that CDS prices
respond quickly to new, default-relevant information. Over the full sample period, cumulative
abnormal CDS spreads drop in response to equity issuance announcements. The reactions
are significantly stronger during the financial crisis. At that time, the federal government
injected equity into financial institutions to ensure their viability. The market reacted to the
equity issue announcements by assessing significantly lower costs for default protection via
credit default swaps. The evidence indicates that single-name CDS based on financial firms’
default probabilities are potentially useful for private investors and regulators.
Costly Information, Planning Complementarities and the

Phillips Curve
Sushant Acharya
Standard sticky information pricing models successfully capture the sluggish movement of
aggregate prices in response to monetary policy shocks but fail at matching the magnitude
and frequency of price changes at the micro level. This paper shows that in a setting where
firms choose when to acquire costly information about different types of shocks, strategic
complementarities in pricing generate planning complementarities. This results in firms
optimally updating their information about monetary policy shocks less frequently than about
idiosyncratic shocks. When calibrated to match frequent and large price changes observed
in micro pricing data, the model is still capable of producing substantial non-neutralities. In
addition, I use the model consistent Phillips curve and data from the Survey of Professional
Forecasters to estimate the frequency at which firms update their information about
monetary policy shocks. I find that the frequency of updating was higher in the 1970s
compared to subsequent decades and hence conclude that monetary policy in the U.S. was
relatively less effective prior to the 1980s.
Population Aging, Migration Spillovers, and the Decline in

Interstate Migration
Fatih Karahan, Serena Rhee
Interstate migration in the United States has declined by 50 percent since the mid-1980s. This
paper studies the role of the aging population in this long-run decline. We argue that
demographic changes trigger a general equilibrium effect in the labor market, which affects
the migration rate of all workers. We document that an increase in the share of middle-aged
workers (those ages 40 to 60) in the working-age population in one state causes a large fall in
the migration rate of all workers in that state, regardless of their age. To understand this
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finding, we develop an equilibrium search model of many locations populated by workers

whose moving costs differ. Firms prefer hiring local workers with high moving costs as they
command lower wages due to their lower outside option. An increase in the share of middle-
aged workers causes firms to recruit more from the local labor market instead of hiring from
other locations, which increases the local job-finding rate and reduces everyone’s migration
rate (“migration spillovers”). Our model reproduces remarkably well several cross-sectional
facts between population flows and the age structure of the labor force. Our quantitative
analysis suggests that population aging accounts for about half of the observed decline, of
which 75 percent is attributable to the general equilibrium effect.
Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and

Aggregate Fluctuations
George Alessandria, Horag Choi, Joseph P. Kaboski, Virgiliu Midrigan
The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are
debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and effects of fluctuations in
the dispersion of producer-level sales and production over the business cycle. On the
theoretical side, we study the effect of exogenous first- and second-moment shocks to
producer-level productivity in a two-country DSGE model with heterogeneous producers and
an endogenous dynamic export participation decision. First-moment shocks cause
endogenous fluctuations in producer-level dispersion by reallocating production
internationally, while second-moment shocks lead to increases in trade relative to GDP in
recessions. Empirically, using detailed product-level data in the motor vehicle industry and
industry-level data of U.S. manufacturers, we find evidence that international reallocation is
indeed important for understanding cross-industry variation in cyclical patterns of measured
dispersion.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2014/wp14-30.pdf
Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations

Makoto Nakajima, José-Victor Ríos-Rull
We ask two questions related to how access to credit affects the nature of business cycles.
First, does the standard theory of unsecured credit account for the high volatility and
procyclicality of credit and the high volatility and countercyclicality of bankruptcy filings
found in U.S. data? Yes, it does, but only if we explicitly model recessions as displaying
countercyclical earnings risk (i.e., rather than having all households fare slightly worse than
normal during recessions, we ensure that more households than normal fare very poorly).
Second, does access to credit smooth aggregate consumption or aggregate hours worked,
and if so, does it matter with respect to the nature of business cycles? No, it does not; in fact,
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consumption is 20 percent more volatile when credit is available. The interest rate premia
increase in recessions because of higher bankruptcy risk discouraging households from using
credit. This finding contradicts the intuition that access to credit helps households to smooth
their consumption.
The Supply and Demand of Skilled Workers in Cities and

the Role of Industry Composition
Jeffrey C. Brinkman
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this
correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period,
the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial
composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service
industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a
spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-
specific and skill-specific technology changes across cities. The estimates imply that both
supply and demand of high-skilled labor have increased over time in big cities. In addition,
demand for skilled labor in large cities has increased somewhat within all industries. However,
this aggregate increase in skill demand in cities is highly concentrated in a few industries. The
finance, insurance, and real estate sectors alone account for 35 percent of the net change
over time.
An Anatomy of U.S. Personal Bankruptcy under Chapter 13

Hülya Eraslan, Gizem Koșar, Wenli Li, Pierre-Daniel Sarte
We build a structural model of Chapter 13 bankruptcy that captures salient features of

personal bankruptcy under Chapter 13. We estimate our model using a novel data set we
construct from bankruptcy court dockets recorded in Delaware between 2001 and 2002. Our
estimation results highlight the importance of debtor’s choice of repayment plan length on
Chapter 13 outcomes under the restrictions imposed by the bankruptcy law. We use the
estimated model to conduct policy experiments to evaluate the impact of more stringent
provisions of Chapter 13 that impose additional restrictions on the length of repayment plans.
We find that these provisions would not materially affect creditor recovery rates and would
not necessarily make discharge more likely for debtors with income above the state median
income.
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Sourcing Substitution and Related Price Index Biases

Alice O. Nakamura, W. Erwin Diewert, John S. Greenlees, Leonard I. Nakamura, Marshall B.
Reinsdorf
We define a class of bias problems that arise when purchasers shift their expenditures among
sellers charging different prices for units of precisely defined and interchangeable product
items that are nevertheless regarded as different for the purposes of price measurement. For
business-to-business transactions, these shifts can cause sourcing substitution bias in the
Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Import Price Index (MPI), as well as potentially in the
proposed new true Input Price Index (IPI). Similarly, when consumers shift their expenditures for
the same products temporally to take advantage of promotional sales or among retailers
charging different per unit prices, this can cause a promotions bias problem in the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or a CPI outlet substitution bias. We recommend alternatives to conventional
price indexes that make use of unit values over precisely defined and interchangeable
product items. We argue that our proposed ideal target indexes could greatly reduce these
biases and make use of increasingly available electronic scanner data on prices and
quantities. We also address the challenges national statistics agencies must surmount to
produce price index measures more like the specified target ones.
Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate

Volatility
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
I revisit the Great Ination and the Great Moderation. I document an immoderation in
corporate balance sheet variables so that the Great Moderation is best described as a
period of divergent patterns in volatilities for real, nominal and financial variables. A model
with time-varying financial frictions and financial shocks allowing for structural breaks in the
size of shocks and the institutional framework is estimated. The paper shows that (i) while the
Great Ination was driven by bad luck, the Great Moderation is mostly due to better
institutions; (ii) the slowdown in credit spreads is driven by an easier access to credit, while a
higher exposure to financial risk determines the immoderation of balance sheet variables;
and (iii) financial shocks arise as relevant drivers of U.S. business cycle uctuations.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2014/files/201484pap.pdf
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Bank Liquidity and Capital Regulation in General

Equilibrium
Francisco Covas, John C. Driscoll
We develop a nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium model with a banking sector and use it
to study the macroeconomic impact of introducing a minimum liquidity standard for banks
on top of existing capital adequacy requirements. The model generates a distribution of bank
sizes arising from differences in banks’ ability to generate revenue from loans and from
occasionally binding capital and liquidity constraints. Under our baseline calibration, imposing
a liquidity requirement would lead to a steady-state decrease of about 3 percent in the
amount of loans made, an increase in banks’ holdings of securities of at least 6 percent, a fall
in the interest rate on securities of a few basis points, and a decline in output of about 0.3
percent. Our results are sensitive to the supply of safe assets: the larger the supply of such
securities, the smaller the macroeconomic impact of introducing a minimum liquidity
standard for banks, all else being equal. Finally, we show that relaxing the liquidity
requirement under a situation of financial stress dampens the response of output to
aggregate shocks.
An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes:

Determinants and Policy Implications
Nicole Abruzzo, Yang-Ho Park
Margin regulation raises two policy concerns. First, an alignment of margins to volatility can
amplify procyclicality, leading to a build-up of excess leverage in good times and a forced
deleverage in bad times. Second, competition among central counterparties (CCPs) can
result in lower margin levels in order to attract more trading volume, which is referred to as a
“race to the bottom." Motivated by these issues, we empirically analyze the determinants of
margin changes by using a data set of various futures margins from Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME) Group. We first find that CME Group raises margins quickly following volatility
spikes but does not immediately lower margins following volatility declines, implying that
margin-induced procyclicality is more of a concern in recessions than in expansions. In
addition, we find some evidence that the margin difference between CME Group and its
competitor, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), is an important driver of margin changes after
changes in other margin determinants are controlled for, implying that competition may be
factored into margin setting.
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Macroeconomic Policy Games

Martin Bodenstein, Luca Guerrieri, Joe LaBriola
Strategic interactions between policymakers arise whenever each policymaker has distinct
objectives. Deviating from full cooperation can result in large welfare losses. To facilitate the
study of strategic interactions, we develop a toolbox that characterizes the welfare-
maximizing cooperative Ramsey policies under full commitment and open-loop Nash games.
Two exam-ples for the use of our toolbox offer some novel results. The first example revisits the
case of monetary policy coordination in a two-country model to confirm that our approach
replicates well-known results in the literature and extends these results by highlighting their
sensitivity to the choice of policy instrument. For the second example, a central bank and a
macroprudential regulator are assigned distinct objectives in a model with financial frictions.
Lack of coordination leads to large welfare losses even if technology shocks are the only
source of fluctuations.
Diffusion of Containerization
Gisela Rua
This paper uses a newly constructed, comprehensive dataset to investigate the diffusion of
containerization. The data show that country adoption is exceptionally fast while firm usage
increases more slowly. To guide my empirical investigation, I build a multi-country trade model
with endogenous adoption of a new transportation technology that is consistent with these
facts. I then test empirically the predictions of the model and find that: (1) usage of
containerization increases with firms' fixed costs and the size and average income of the
container network; and (2) adoption depends on expected future usage, adoption costs,
and trade with the United States, the first and largest user of containerization.
Ination Experience and Ination Expectations: Dispersion

and Disagreement Within Demographic Groups
Benjamin K. Johannsen, Board of Governors
Using consumption data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, I document persistent
differences across demographic groups in the dispersion of household-specific rates of
ination. Using survey data on ination expectations, I show that demographic groups with
greater dispersion in experienced ination also disagree more about future ination. I argue that
these results can be rationalized from the perspective of an imperfect information model in
which idiosyncratic ination experience serves as a signal about aggregate ination. These
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empirical regularities pose a challenge to several other popular models of the expectations
formation process of households.
Does education loan debt influence household financial

distress? An assessment using the 2007-09 SCF Panel
Jeffrey Thompson, Jesse Bricker
This paper uses the recent 2007-09 SCF panel to examine the influence of student loans on
financial distress. Families with student loans in 2007 have higher levels of financial distress than
families without such loans, and these families were more susceptible to transitions to financial
distress during the early stages of the Great Recession. This correlation persists once we
control for a host of other demographic, work-status, and household balance sheet
measures. Families with an average level of student loans were 3.1 percentage points more
likely to be 60 days late paying bills and 3 percentage points more likely to be denied credit.
During this same time period, families with other types of consumer debt were no more or less
likely to be financially distressed. Education loans enable students to go to college and
improve their employment and earnings prospects. On average, families with education
loans in the 2007-09 SCF saw higher income growth between surveys. Further, the value of
completing a degree is evident in the data: families without a degree but with education
debt drive much of the correlations between financial distress and education loans.
The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing

boom and bust
Neil Bhutta
From 1999 to 2013, U.S. mortgage debt doubled and then contracted sharply. Our
understanding of the factors driving this volatility in the stock of debt is hampered by a lack of
data on mortgage flows. Using comprehensive, individual-level panel data on consumer
liabilities, I estimate detailed mortgage inflows and outflows. During the boom, inflows from
real estate investors tripled, far outpacing growth from other segments such as first-time
homebuyers. During the bust, although defaults and deleveraging are popular explanations
for the debt decline, a collapse in inflows has been the major driver. Inflow declines across
counties have been associated not just with house price declines, but also with rising
unemployment and higher minority population shares. Finally, inflow declines reflect, in part, a
dramatic decline in first-time homebuying. First-time homebuying fell among both high and
low credit score individuals, but much more precipitously for low score individuals. Further
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analysis suggests that the differential decline by credit score likely reflects markedly tightened
credit supply.
Financing Constraints and Unemployment: Evidence from

the Great Recession
Burcu Duygan-Bump, Alexey Levkov, Judit Montoriol-Garriga
Exploiting the differential financing needs across industrial sectors, this paper shows that
financing constraints of small businesses in the United States are one of the drivers explaining
the unemployment dynamics during the Great Recession. We show that workers in small firms
are more likely to become unemployed during the 2007-09 financial crisis if they work in
industries with high external financing needs. We find very similar results for the 1990-91
recession, but not for the 2001 recession, where only the former was associated with a
reduction in loan supply. These findings further support the credit constraints hypothesis.
Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic

general equilibrium economy
Charles N. Noussair, Damjan Pfajfar, Janos Zsiros
We construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with a structure

based on a nonlinear version of the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
(DSGE) model. We analyze the behavior of firms’ pricing decisions in four different
experimental economies. We consider how well the experimental data conform to a number
of accepted empirical stylized facts. Pricing patterns mostly conform to these patterns. Most
price changes are positive, and inflation is strongly correlated with average magnitude, but
not the frequency, of price changes. Prices are affected negatively by the productivity shock
and positively by the output gap. Lagged real interest rate has a negative effect on prices,
unless human subjects choose the interest rate, or firms sell perfect substitutes in the output
market. There is inertia in price setting, firms integrate wage increases into their prices, and
there is evidence of adaptive behavior in price-setting in our laboratory economy. The hazard
function for price changes, however, is upward-sloping, in contrast to most empirical studies.
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2. Banka Qëndrore Europiane
Financial Fragility of Euro Area Household

Miguel Ampudia, Has van Vlokhoven, Dawid Żochowski
We propose a novel framework to identify distressed households by taking account of both

the solvency and the liquidity situation of an individual household. Using the data from the
Household Finance and Consumption Survey and the country-level data on non-performing
loans we calibrate our metric of distress and estimate stress-test elasticities in response to an
interest rate shock, an income shock and a house price shock. We find that, albeit euro area
households are relatively resilient as a whole, there are large discrepancies in the impact of
macroeconomic shocks across countries. Furthermore, while losses given default as
calculated using our framework are low, they are sensitive to house prices changes. Hence,
any factors hindering the seizure of the collateral or lowering its value, such as inefficient legal
systems, moratoria on foreclosures or bottlenecks in judicial procedures may significantly
increase losses facing banks. Finally, we demonstrate that our framework could be used for
macroprudential purposes, in particular for the calibration of country level loan-to-value ratio
caps.
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1737.en.pdf
Optimal Monetary Policy, Asset Purchases, and Credit

Market Frictions
Andreas Schabert
This paper examines how credit market frictions affect optimal monetary policy and if there is
a role for central bank asset purchases. We develop a sticky price model where money
serves as the means of payment and ex-ante identical agents borrow/lend among each
other. The credit market is distorted as borrowing is constrained by available collateral. We
show that the central bank cannot implement the .rst best allocation and that optimal
monetary policy mainly aims at stabilizing prices when only a single instrument is available.
The central bank can however mitigate the credit market distortion in a welfare-enhancing
way by purchasing loans at a favorable price, which relies on rationing the supply of money.
Global Value Chains Surveying Drivers and Measures

João Amador, Sónia Cabral
The production of most goods and services is nowadays vertically fragmented across different
countries, as global value chains (GVCs) emerged as the current paradigm for the
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international organisation of production. This paper surveys part of the growing empirical
literature on GVCs, starting by discussing the main driving forces of GVCs in recent decades.
Next, it surveys the indicators used to map and measure this phenomenon, accounting for
their different scopes and required datasets.
Exports and Capacity Constraints - a Smooth Transition

Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries
Ansgar Belke, Anne Oeking, Ralph Setzer
This paper argues that, under certain conditions, firms consider export activity as a substitute
of serving domestic demand. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests
domestic demand pressure and capacity constraint restrictions as additional variables of a
properly specified export equation. As an innovation to the literature, we assess the empirical
significance through the logistic and the exponential variant of the non-linear smooth
transition regression model. We find that domestic demand developments are relevant for
the short-run dynamics of exports in particular during more extreme stages of the business
cycle. A strong substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly
be found for Spain, Portugal and Italy providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs
and hysteresis in international trade.
Financial Reputation, Market Interventions and Debt

Issuance by Banks: A Truncated Two-Part Model Approach
Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela
In this paper we study the impact that financial reputation and offcial market interventions
have on the timing and amount of debt issuance decisions by banks. To do so, we propose
an extension of the two-part modelling framework of Cragg (1971, eq. 7 and 9) to
accommodate random effects. We use quarterly information on 70 major listed European
banks from 2003Q1 to 2012Q1. Focusing on a wide range of financial reputation indicators,
we show that credit ratings are a signiffcant and positive determinant of the timing of
uncollateralised debt issuance decisions. Empirical results do no suggest that ratings have a
signiffcant impact on the amount of debt placed by banks. Other financial reputation
indicators analysed are found to be of second-order relevance on debt issuance decisions.
Our results also suggest that central bank liquidity programs may have had a large impact on
both the timing and the amount of collateralised debt issuance during the recent financial
crisis, but had a negligible impact on uncollateralised debt issuance decisions.
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3. Banka e Finlandës
The effects of ratings-contingent regulation on

international bank lending behavior: Evidence from the
Basel 2 accord
Iftekhar Hasan, Suk-Joong Kim, Eliza Wu
We investigate the effects of credit ratings-contingent financial regulation on foreign bank

lending behavior. We examine the sensitivity of international bank flows to debtor countries’
sovereign credit rating changes before and after the implementation of the Basel 2 risk-based
capital regulatory rules. We study the quarterly bilateral flows from G-10 creditor banking
systems to 77 recipient countries over the period Q4:1999 to Q2:2013. We find direct evidence
that sovereign credit re-ratings that lead to changes in risk-weights for capital adequacy
requirements have become more significant since the implementation of Basel 2 rules for
assessing banks’ credit risk under the standardized approach. This evidence is consistent with
global banks acting via their international lending decisions to minimize required capital
charges associated with the use of ratings-contingent regulation. We find evidence that
banking regulation induced foreign lending has also heightened the perceived sovereign risk
levels of recipient countries, especially those with investment grade status.
http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Pages/dp2014_25.aspx
The net worth trap: investment and output dynamics in the

presence of financing constraints
Jukka Isohätälä, Alistair Milne, Donald Robertson
We study the impact of financing constraints on investment and output dynamics, in a

continuous time setting with output a linear function of capital. Decline of net worth reduces
investment and, if firms can rent capital to unconstrained outside investors, can create a 'net
worth trap' with both investment and output falling below normal levels for long time periods.
We provide a detailed account of our model solution and discuss both the economic intuition
underpinning our results and the implications for macroeconomic modeling.
http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/BoF_DP_1426.pdf
16
4. Bank for International Settlements
When firms and industries matter: understanding the

sources of productivity growth
Ulf Lewrick, Lukas Mohler, Rolf Weder
This paper presents a framework to assess the relative importance of three key sources of
productivity growth that research on international trade focuses on: (i) inter-industry
specialisation; (ii) intra-industry reallocation of resources across heterogeneous firms, including
firm entry and exit; and (iii) technological progress. Detailed data on Swiss manufacturing
firms illustrate how the framework can be empirically applied. Based on this example, we find
that intra-industry reallocations are the most important source of growth in aggregate total
factor productivity, reecting in particular the productivity growth of large, incumbent firms
and the entry of new firms. That said, inter-industry specialisation and general technological
progress remain important supplementary sources of growth in Swiss manufacturing.
http://www.bis.org/publ/work469.pdf
The Impact of Liquidity Regulation on Banks

Ryan N. Banerjee, Hitoshi Mio
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the effect of liquidity regulation
on bank balance sheets. It takes advantage of the fact that not all banks were made subject
to tighter liquidity regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) in 2010. Under this
new regulation a subset of banks operating in the UK were required to hold a sufficient stock
of high quality liquid assets (HQLA) to withstand two scenarios of stressed funding conditions.
We find that banks adjusted both their asset and liability structures to meet tighter liquidity
requirements. Banks increased the share of HQLA and funding from more stable UK non-
financial deposits while reducing the share of short-term intra-financial loans and short-term
wholesale funding. We do not find evidence that the tightening of liquidity regulation had an
impact on the overall size of bank balance sheets or a detrimental impact on lending to the
non-financial sector either through reduced lending supply or higher interest rates on loans.
Overall, in response to tougher liquidity regulation, banks replaced claims on other financial
institutions with cash, central bank reserves and government bonds– and so reduced the
interconnectedness of the banking sector without affecting lending to the real economy.
17
The leverage ratio over the cycle

Michael Brei, Leonardo Gambacorta
This paper analyses how the Basel III leverage ratio (Tier 1 capital/exposure) behaves over the
cycle. The analysis proposes a setup to test for the cyclical properties of bank capital ratios,
taking into account structural shifts in banks’ behaviour during the global financial crisis and its
aftermath. Using a large data set covering international banks headquartered in 14
advanced economies for the period 1995–2012, we find that the Basel III leverage ratio is
significantly more countercyclical than the riskweighted regulatory capital ratio: it is a tighter
constraint for banks in booms and a looser constraint in recessions.
5. Banka e Austrisë
The Euroization of Bank Deposits in Eastern Europe

Martin Brown, Helmut Stix
In Eastern Europe a substantial share of bank deposits are denominated in foreign currency.
Deposit euroization poses key challenges for monetary policy and financial sector supervision.
On the one hand, it limits the effectiveness of monetary policy interventions. On the other
hand, it increases financial sector fragility by exposing banks to currency risk or currency
induced credit risk. Policymakers disagree on whether Eastern European countries should
tackle deposit euroization with “dedollarization” policies or should rather strive to adopt the
Euro as their legal tender. Assessing the potential effectiveness of “dedollarization” policies
requires a clear understanding of which households hold foreign currency deposits and why
they do so. Based on survey data covering 16,375 households in ten countries in 2011 and
2012, we provide the first household-level analysis of deposit euroization in Eastern Europe. We
examine how households’ preferences for and holding of foreign currency deposits are
related to individual expectations about monetary conditions and network effects. We also
examine to what extent monetary expectations, network effects and deposit euroization are
the legacy of past financial crises or the outflow of current policies and institutions in the
region. Our findings suggest that deposit euroization in Eastern Europe can be partly tackled
by prudent monetary and economic decisions by today’s policymakers. The preferences of
households for Euro deposits are partly driven by their distrust in the stability of their domestic
currency, which in turn is related to their assessment of current policies and institutions.
However, our findings also suggest that a stable monetary policy may not be sufficient to deal
with the hysteresis of deposit euroization across the region. First, we confirm that the holding of
foreign currency deposits has become a “habit” in the region. Second, we find that deposit
euroization is still strongly influenced by households’ experiences of financial crises in the
1990s.
http://www.oenb.at/en/Publications/Economics/Working-Papers/2014/working-paper-197.html
18
6. Banka e Gjermanisë
MIDAS and bridge equations

Christian Schumacher
This paper compares two single-equation approaches from the recent nowcast literature:
Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions and bridge equations. Both approach are used to
nowcast a low-frequency variable such as quarterly GDP growth by higher-frequency
business cycle indicators. Three differences between the approaches are discussed: 1) MIDAS
is a direct multi-step nowcasting tool, whereas bridge equations are based on iterated
forecasts; 2) MIDAS equations employ empirical weighting of high-frequency predictor
observations with functional lag polynomials, whereas the weights of indicator observations in
bridge equations are partly fixed stemming from time aggregation. 3) MIDAS equations can
consider current-quarter leads of high-frequency indicators in the regression, whereas bridge
equations typically do not. However, the conditioning set for nowcasting includes the most
recent indicator observations in both approaches. To discuss the differences between the
approaches in isolation, intermediate specifications between MIDAS and bridge equations
are provided. The alternative models are compared in an empirical application to
nowcasting GDP growth in the Euro area given a large set of business cycle indicators.
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion_Paper_1/2014/2014_10_21_dkp_26.pd
f?__blob=publicationFile
How is the low-interest-rate environment affecting the

solvency of German life insurers?
Anke Kablau, Matthias Weiß
Life insurance companies are affected directly by the impact of the low-interestrate
environment. To fulfil promised guarantees they may be forced to tap into their own funds,
say if the current income generated is no longer sufficient to cover the policyholders’ profit
participation share as defined by the enterprises or even guaranteed benefits. They may then
find themselves in a position in which their solvency is at risk. A scenario analysis is used to
examine the stage at which German life insurers would no longer be able to fulfil the currently
prevailing Solvency I own funds requirements owing to the low-interest-rate environment. In
contrast to other literature in this field of research we use prudential individual data from 85
German life insurers. Even in a mild stress scenario 12 life insurers, with a combined market
share of some 14%, would no longer be able to fulfil the own funds requirements by 2023.
Under more severe stress conditions, especially if yields on investments were also to come
under pressure, 32 enterprises would no longer be able to meet the Solvency I own funds
requirements. This points to a potential solvency risk in the life insurance industry.
19
Contingent Convertible Bonds and the Stability of Bank

Funding: The Case of Partial Writedown
Dirk Bleich
This paper adds to the growing body of literature on the design of Contingent Convertible
Bonds (CoCos). We discuss how the design of the loss absorption mechanism affects the
stability of bank funding and distinguish between Conversion-to-Equity (CE) CoCos, Principal
WriteDown (PWD) CoCos with a full writedown feature and PWD CoCos with a partial
writedown feature. As we show, the first two loss absorption mechanisms unambiguously
improve a bank’s stability of funding position. By contrast, the latter type of loss absorption
mechanism can increase solvency risk and, moreover, is identified as a source of uncertainty
regarding a bank’s ex post solvency position. Bank managers, investors as well as supervisors
and regulators should be aware of these potentially destabilizing effects. In this context, one
important aspect is the regulatory treatment of PWD CoCos with a partial writedown feature.
A One-OffWealth Levy? Assessing the Pros, the Cons and

the Importance of Credibility
Gerhard Kempkes, Nikolai Stähler
From an economic perspective, imposing a credible one-off net wealth levy in crisis times as
a tool to ward off a national emergency appears to be advantageous as, in an ideal world,
this would not distort market players’ allocation decisions. However, in practice, charging
such a levy may give rise to distortions and unwanted effects on the real economy. Credibility
that the levy will be imposed as a once-only measure is key to ensuring that harmful
distortions in the allocation of resources are kept to a minimum. This paper confirms this using
an analysis based on a DSGE model. In practice, while a government cannot guarantee that
such a measure will be taken once only, it can contribute to the credibility thereof in a
number of ways. First, the country’s future “business model” must become apparent; second,
there has to be a basic level of confidence in the government and a firm belief that the
budgetary imbalances were not actively caused by the state – at least not by the
government currently in power; third, a verifiable outlook of sustainable public finances must
be in place; and fourth, the political costs of a repeat levy must be high. This paper also
discusses the potential impact of alternative model setups as well as some practical
implementation problems.
20
Banks, Markets, and Financial Stability

Armin Eder, Falko Fecht, Thilo Pausch
We use a Diamond/Dybvig-based model with two banks operating in separate regions

connected by a common asset market in which banks and sophisticated depositors invest.
We study the effect of a potential run (crisis) and subsequent fire sales on the asset price in
both the crisis and no-crisis state. In our model, the two are jointly determined by a cash-in-
the-market pricing and a no-arbitrage condition. We find that (i) a higher crisis probability
increases the liquidity premium and thus asset prices in the normal and crisis case and (ii) a
higher share of sophisticated investors increases market depth and thus the crisis price while it
might also raise the asset price in the normal state.
Pro-Cyclical Capital Regulation and Lending

Markus Behn, Rainer Haselmann, Paul Wachtel
We use a quasi-experimental research design to examine the effect of model-based capital

regulation introduced under the Basel II agreement on the pro-cyclicality of bank lending
and firms' access to funds during a recession. In response to an exogenous shock to credit risk
in the German economy, loans subject to modelbased, time-varying capital charges were
reduced by 3.5 percent more than loans under the traditional approach to capital
regulation. The effect is even stronger when we examine aggregate firm borrowing,
suggesting that the pro-cyclical effect of model-based capital charges is not offset by
substitution to other banks which use the traditional approach.
21
Fjalime të guvernatorëve
Janet L Yellen, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal

Reserve System
The speech held in Boston, Massachusetts, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at the
Conference on economic opportunity and inequality. The governor discussed about the
perspectives on inequality and opportunity from the Survey of Consumer Finances. He stated
that he has only just touched the surface of the important topic of economic opportunity. The
research about the causes and implications of inequality is ongoing, and he hope that this
conference helps spur further study of economic opportunity and its effects on economic
mobility.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141020a.pdf
***
The speech held in Washington DC, at the National Summit on Diversity in the Economics
Profession. The governor focused on the national summit on diversity in the economics
profession. He stated that this conference offers an important opportunity to investigate all of
the possible factors that influence the extent of diversity among economists at the Federal
Reserve and elsewhere, including those factors that are affecting the education and
advancement of economists everywhere in the United States.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141031d.htm
***
The speech held in Paris, at the Panel Discussion on "Shaping the Future of the
Macroeconomic Policy Mix", International Symposium of the Bank of France "Central Banking:
The Way Forward?". The governor focused on shaping the future of the macroeconomic
policy mix. He stated that the normalization of monetary policy will be an important sign that
economic conditions more generally are finally emerging from the shadow of the Great
Recession.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141110f.htm
22
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank
The speech held in Frankfurt am Main, in the ECB press conference - introductory statement.
Mr. Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, stated that their measures will enhance the
functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, support financing conditions in
the euro area, facilitate credit provision to the real economy and generate positive spillovers
to other markets. They will thereby further ease the monetary policy stance more broadly,
support our forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates and reinforce the fact that there
are significant and increasing differences in the monetary policy cycle between major
advanced economies.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141110a.htm
***
The speech held in Rome, at the Lecture room of the School of Economics and Business
Studies "Federico Caffè". Mr. Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, marked the centenary of the
birth of Federico Caffè and he focused on the economic policy of Federico Caffè in our
times. He stated that the euro area countries have in recent years greatly strengthened their
ties and correspondingly expanded the basis of trust on which they rest: the single monetary
policy, with common fiscal rules, now with a banking union and a single banking supervision
and soon with a common capital market.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141113b.htm
***
The speech held in Brussels, for the Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary
Affairs of the European Parliament. Mr. Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, stated that 2015
needs to be the year when all actors in the euro area, governments and European institutions
alike, will deploy a consistent common strategy to bring their economies back on track.
Monetary policy alone will not be able to achieve this.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141118c.htm
Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland
The speech held in Berlin, at the joint Conference "The Comprehensive Assessment, the ECB's
New Role and Limits of a Common Supervision in the EU", organised by the Financial Risk and
Stability Network, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), European School of
Management and Technology (ESMT), Jacques Delors Institut Berlin and Bruegel. The
governor focused on a sound and growth-enhancing financial sector in Europe. He stated
that combining a better regulated and supervised banking sector with a strengthened non-
23
bank financial sector will contribute to financial stability and improve the long-term growth
prospects of the European economy and thus the welfare of European citizens.
Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of

the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
The speech held in Göteborg, at the West Sweden Chamber of Commerce. The governor
discussed about the monetary policy in an uncertain economic policy Landscape. He stated
that the economic activity in Sweden is now beginning to improve. Their forecasts are quite
uncertain, especially a couple of years ahead. As always when making decisions in an
uncertain situation they will have to deal with what happens as it comes.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141022h.pdf
***
The speech held in Chicago, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual International
Banking Conference. The governor discussed about implementing the regulatory reform
agenda - the pitfall of myopia. He stated that he sees no reason to pull the brake on
regulatory reforms. They mustn't lose sight of the long-term benefits of limiting the costs to
society that financial crises cause.
Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of

the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements
The speech held in Paris, at the conference "Towards Retail Payments 2.0: The New Security
Challenges". The governor focused on Towards Retail Payments 2.0: The New Security
Challenges. He stated that as the proposal for the revised Payment Services Directive is
currently discussed in the Council of the European Union, a unique opportunity is given today
to all stakeholders to tackle the different issues raised by the new regulation in the presence
of representatives from all European competent authorities that are involved.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141022e.htm
24
***
The speech held in Paris, at the International Symposium of the Bank of France "Central
Banking: The Way Forward?". The governor discussed about the central banking - the way
forward? He stated that central banking cannot replace decisive structural reforms, which
are necessary both for increasing aggregate supply and demand and enhancing our
economies' resilience to shocks.
Patrick Honohan, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland
The speech held in Dublin, at an event marking the retirement of Professor John FitzGerald,
Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). The governor discussed about the carelessness
or misfortune. Lessons from our generation's two macroeconomic collapses. He stressed that is
undoubtedly true is that their national ability to achieve improved policy responses now - and
in the future - has been greatly enhanced by an improved understanding of the macro-
economy to which John FitzGerald's tireless and immensely well-informed research has
greatly contributed.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141023j.htm
***
The speech held in Dublin, at the MABS (Money Advice and Budgeting Service) Annual
Conference. The governor discussed about the household indebtedness - rhetoric and
action. He stated that the degree to which the events of the boom and bust have resulted in
what must often appear to be arbitrary redistributional effects resulting in over-indebtedness
of a significant section of society, has raised operational and policy challenges for many
actors in society which are likely to be only imperfectly met. They will continue to explore
what more they can do at the outer limit of our mandate to speed an improved overall
outcome.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141110e.htm
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of

the Financial Stability Board
The speech held in Singapore, at the 2014 Monetary Authority of Singapore Lecture. The
governor focused in the future of financial reform. He stated that onto the foundations they
25
must now build the pillars of diversity, trust and openness that will support a global financial
system serving the global economy to its full potential.
http://www.bis.org/review/r141117d.pdf
Már Guðmundsson, Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland
The speech held in Reykjavik, at the Chamber of Commerce Monetary Policy Meeting. The
governor discussed about the Economic outlook, monetary policy, and credit ratings. He
stated that if they can preserve stability and GDP growth next year while demonstrating that
they can at least begin lifting the capital controls without compromising stability and
confidence, their chances for a higher credit rating should improve markedly.
Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain
The speech held in Madrid, at the press conference presenting the results of the
comprehensive assessment of the euro area banking system, Bank of Spain. The governor
focused on the results of the comprehensive assessment of the euro area banking system. He
stated that in just over a week the Single Supervisory Mechanism will become fully
operational, and the immediate future poses challenges of the first order both for supervisors,
involving the adaptation of their structures and functioning to the needs of the new European
mechanism, and for banks.
Carlos da Silva Costa, Governor of Banco de Portugal
The speech held in Brussels, at the European Investment Bank/International Monetary Fund
Meeting. The governor discussed about reviving markets in high quality securitisation in
Europe. He stated that Europe must avoid ending up with zombie banks as well as with
zombie firms. Zombie banks and zombie firms have never been a characterization of a well-
functioning financial system and economy. This is to say that European policy-makers must be
intelligent and fight causes instead of consequences.
26
Yannis Stournaras, Governor of the Bank of Greece
The speech held in Portoroz, at the IMF/Bank of Slovenia high-level seminar on "Reinvigorating
Credit Growth in Central, Eastern and Southern European Economies". The governor focused
on the measures to revive credit markets: best practices and pitfalls. He stated that the
monetary policy will continue to play the major role in determining liquidity provision to banks
and the cost of funding for the private sector.
27

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Artikujt Fjalimet Nentor 14 7288 1

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Përmbledhje 20 Tetor – 20 Nëntor 2014

Artikuj shkencorë nga

1. Federal Reserve System faqe 2

2. Banka Qëndrore Europiane faqe 14

3. Banka e Finlandës faqe 16

4. Bank for International Settlements faqe 17

5. Banka e Austrisë faqe 18

6. Banka e Gjermanisë faqe 19

Fjalime të guvernatorëve faqe 22

1. Federal Reserve System

On the Structural Interpretation of the Smets-Wouters “Risk

Human Capital Risk, Contract Enforcement, and the

Adverse Selection, Risk Sharing and Business Cycles

Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure

The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement

Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal

Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit

Supervisory Stress Tests

CDS and Equity Market Reactions to Stock Issuances in the

Costly Information, Planning Complementarities and the

Population Aging, Migration Spillovers, and the Decline in

finding, we develop an equilibrium search model of many locations populated by workers

Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and

Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations

The Supply and Demand of Skilled Workers in Cities and

An Anatomy of U.S. Personal Bankruptcy under Chapter 13

We build a structural model of Chapter 13 bankruptcy that captures salient features of

Sourcing Substitution and Related Price Index Biases

Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate

Bank Liquidity and Capital Regulation in General

An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes:

Macroeconomic Policy Games

Ination Experience and Ination Expectations: Dispersion

Does education loan debt influence household financial

The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing

Financing Constraints and Unemployment: Evidence from

Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic

We construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with a structure

2. Banka Qëndrore Europiane

Financial Fragility of Euro Area Household

We propose a novel framework to identify distressed households by taking account of both

Optimal Monetary Policy, Asset Purchases, and Credit

Global Value Chains Surveying Drivers and Measures

Exports and Capacity Constraints - a Smooth Transition

Financial Reputation, Market Interventions and Debt

The effects of ratings-contingent regulation on

We investigate the effects of credit ratings-contingent financial regulation on foreign bank

The net worth trap: investment and output dynamics in the

We study the impact of financing constraints on investment and output dynamics, in a

4. Bank for International Settlements

When firms and industries matter: understanding the

The Impact of Liquidity Regulation on Banks

The leverage ratio over the cycle

The Euroization of Bank Deposits in Eastern Europe

MIDAS and bridge equations

How is the low-interest-rate environment affecting the

Contingent Convertible Bonds and the Stability of Bank

A One-OffWealth Levy? Assessing the Pros, the Cons and

Banks, Markets, and Financial Stability

We use a Diamond/Dybvig-based model with two banks operating in separate regions

Pro-Cyclical Capital Regulation and Lending

We use a quasi-experimental research design to examine the effect of model-based capital

Janet L Yellen, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal