Resilience Thinking Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World Brian Walker & David Salt Foreword by Walter V. Reid Ossanore1 Living in a Complex World: An Introduction to Resilience Thinking they tus up ‘Conse thee questions Inbusiess, why isa competitor ne proc ‘uct sometimes ony a minor hiccongh but a other imes a rior shock ‘hat can destroy anemtrprise? In indasty, how isgrowth sometimes una ‘bctedby medi neretratersesbutatotertimesthe smallest change brings thing crashing down? Why is dae he same drought cat cases ‘serio degradation of retouras on one fm has eee on another? “Th rexponse of ny system o shacks anddstrbanoes depends ons porticalarcontent ts connectionsacrosscaes anditscurentstate Every ‘Stuaton is diferent; tings ae always changing Ite 3 comes wor ‘Wear all managers of ystems of one typeof another. That syste might bes home,» company, ora mation, You might have responsibly cfearingtora nature reser, developing mining operation, o planning fshing ota. Bo ita farm, a business a region, or anindasty, we areal tof some ayer of humans and nature (scalcologial ystems) How do you approach the tsk of management his complex word? Do's arse things wil happen in much he sare way tomorow as ‘ey did yesterday? Are you confident the eystom you ate working | wont be dinpted by ie surprises? De you appreciate whit fora sytem tn aor unexpected dstrbances ‘Al ofthese questions relate to rextenc, che ability ofa system toResilience Thinking curren system demands without eroding the potential wo met future seeds. We We in a time of grovving population coupled with a dectn- ‘ng resource base and great uncertain about a range of environmen. tal issues such as climate change. How ean we make the systems that wwe depend upon resilient? Tt before we adres neues of rsionc, stop and consider fora ‘moment our curent practices of resource management. ‘The Drivers of Unsustainable Development ‘Our worlds facing abroad range of serious and growing renurc sues. Humaninduced soil degradation hasbeen geting wore since the 18508 ‘Aout 5 peroent of agricultural land contains areas depaded by eo- ‘son, ring sl, soil compaction, and valous oer factors, I hasbeen ‘estimated (Woed et 2000 dat soi degradation has already reduced ‘lbal agricultural peduesvty by around 15 percent inthe lat fifty _years, In the last three hundred years, topsoil hasbeen fst aa rate oF 240 malion tons per year im the las ity year thas mone than do ‘le to 750 milion tons per year ‘Ase mavedeeper ina ehetwentyfis century we cannot afford to lose mose of ou resource hase The global popalacon is now expand: ‘ng by about 75 millon people each year Population growth rates ae ecining but dhe world's popution wil sil be expaning by almost ‘milion per yeain 220. The United Nations preecsionspuethe global ‘population at neatly Billion in 2025 In adtion i eurrent water con- ‘umpion patirns continue unabated, al the wold population will lve in watenatreued ver baste by 2025, "The Food and Agsculture Organication ofthe United Nations (F40) ‘04 annual Hongee Report extmtes that over 850 milion people sof ferftom chronic hunger Hunger kills 5 milion childeen every yese “The mot fas Hiahesies in the word have llama ane after the othe, incading those managed wih the explicit alm of being sustain siete the ced fisheries at Grand Banks, Newioundlandin 192) Peo- itive rangelands are wrning into unprductive expanses of woody rubs Half of he word's wetlands have bee Ist in just dhe st con (ary. Lake systems and vers everywhere ae experiencing ala loons the World Wide Fund for Nature's WWE) Living Mt 011A Few Sats ona Shiking Word ‘sar ae humana are cancer Eth inking Ths human popaion Inguwing bute rears tv gue eo ithe, and hue his. ring number of ope ot Indo many instances ecg Ft fw me ere nn 208 fo the een eed Dleprium Assesemest.rvemilnnimaesenet onan or he Exe wee, pated ong), iain ye ‘Worl esos nae «+ Wesdide, hom hive sles conve esi thin fe land {Stax Mow of to remade to dey rarer " ‘ Bepeeen 1 and 20 the demand for cays services rnin proved by econptes are gies werd popu do ‘ata Ghiion andthe bel comory increased more han i ‘et th dna fd pci acetyl 25 ‘pled, alla hydropower cap dosed. sd ber pedton Ince mare han ale ‘Ghat gts prodactin, cen 1.84 bilon ton analy, eed ncn by and #9 pret met Geran in 200, ‘The average nmua rms a of eral proton in decoping ‘uit as doppe om 25 1 peer pr year averthe pat yeas Water sate and and dation st say sever coo Toredaceyeldson abut 1 prent facto lands specally Copland in afte ond Cent America apd pure nA, ‘ ihe let ew decades aprons 2 een he wor com eels were stan additonal 2) percent wore deprde the (CerBbean, percent of ol ts bent nce decades, A ‘Sonal, paris ahi of he wos mangrove se ere os. ‘nde yar human hive ceased the spas ctintion me by ‘Sch 61 00 times ver backround ie plover pane "nn (The bskgoved expen ate the relives cnn ra {Golding ar atin evets=at hein have ec de ‘gpeacing om the foal ear ve he coun of poate) ‘ince 175, the aonaspere onsen fearon ne hr Speen by aboard (rom i e005 pats eon n 200), pray doe ode comboton of ol els ad lai se Changes Approitly 80 percent of at nee 60 pte por full aaken lc ine 190 ‘The ue of wo ecasitem srvcen-cature Sabres nd eshte ‘Snow wellbeynd eee uc be uiied ven at curren ‘commercial ah sock ae versed. Prom pore omy 25 prea of lal ewater exo longterm seme wp pes and i meter gh ens wate nat ot erResilience Thinking analyzes he ecooprint of 150 comnts around the word every to years, In ts 2004 report it esimated that the average eco- footprint [tound the word was 2.2 global hectares per person (a global hecuare Isalnectare of bisigialy productive spce with work-aerageprogic- tiv), However here are only 1.8 global hectares available per per son. This ecological overshoot means we ae using the equivalent of ‘Sout .2 puts rit takes 12 yeaa regenerate what humanity uses livone year We are using nature more rapidly than ican regenerate Regietably, ikea racked record, the story goes on and on, dis turbingly repeiive (oe also box 2, °A Fee Stason a Shrinking Were). ‘You've seen or heard these aims before and itis not ou intention © a to doomandglonm publistions. Rather ths book is sbout options Sid hope base om a diferent way of ong things hough understanding 2 the wold eally works, But we do need keep in med wha i hap- ‘ening to the word. The imperative mestage i atthe words shrnke Ing: the human popultion is growing while its resource hase decies.| “What lies behind dis dedine? Thre i, ofcourse, no single under ing eons instead, there Is abroad spectrum of easses Bu they can be oud ito thee categories: in some situations people have na choice ‘buto overuse dhetrresource bas; inothersthe declines alowed occur veflly; and the thin driver of unsustainable developments misunder- "Randing—th applicstion of appropiate modes ot how the word works “Theft category (no choice} relates to problems associated eithlaree populations coupled with poverty. ln this ese, no other option exits ‘than to overuse resources. It's simply a matter of survival “Allo ote, however theresa choke and a reaouren allowed Aecline ori purposely driven den. Sometimes rules and regulations encourage people to overuse resources, this she case of subsidies for Grougitstncken fares Often these farmers are either operating on ‘marginal landormismtanaging resources bt their operation x propped tpby government payments designed to protect people from hardship Imother eases tx beaks or indanery support can lead api oss of forest ora fishery, These are what are knows as "perverse incentives” {eNoely 1980. Partermore, people sometins deliberately chy todegradea resource because they believe scene an tchnolexy wil ways be ale to come w the wescue in many cas, however, reaourer degradation is simply dhe result ot humankinis satiate dese w produce and cons, leading ‘ving in a Complex World willl shorter greed an corruption with o hee forthe fate. Some stays this jst dewey humans volved in awa without likswhere ‘sucess washsed on msximizng yr ern Hasan behave sped ‘sronly by deve tom our evoltionary pa conection etry, end ower without wich we would nthe hee asa species or asthe cultures ‘we now have. Suc evolutionary antecodenssmade sense when he human ‘opulason was small and the word was seemingly endless bu hiss no Jonger te case In today word ich behaviors eguntoturnon sand ‘vl deprive fare generations of dhe opportunitis we enor. ut here sa hed der aswell Ourenvitonmental problems can alle Blamed on greed and overexplttion. Igorance and misunder- standing aso play aconl eles the decline four resource basen ‘any instances, ich a nll ofthe cate studies inthis book, is clear ‘hatin developing a esource or a region wee have not undersaod wel enough the functoningofthe eoysterslaolved The pepleinwoleed ‘were not being greedy, there was no willl destruction. Many ecoeye- tem collapses ae occurring in pases where enormous resusces are Deinginvestedin understanding the system and whore sigiicat tort ‘sbrin made tobe “sustainable” Ie rt just the amount of knowledgedeails shout species and econytemsit also the kind of knowledge. I the way we coaceive of esource systems and people as par of them. The way we curently tse ard manage these systema (hich we descr i the following see tion as busines as usta) i no longer working an yt what we heat ‘most ofthe time is thar the solution lies ia more ofthe same ‘This book focuses on tls tid driver of unsustainable. The frst “vives (poverty) willonlye resolved when the world has addressed the ‘other wo. We rete to te second driver (ll excessive conta tion in che inal chapter because our best hope for dein with t also Irs in a philosophy of resilience. Despite Our Best Intentions ‘Why i ha, spite the bos of intntons (andi contrat the ome 1 to recent aks telling ws that everything okay, any othe works pdtv landseapes and best loved ecorystems ae tule current prac” taxed on pilemophy of optimizing the every of particle products io Io servers) toner aeehs toResilience Thinking ‘maximize the production af specied componont in the astem (xt of paticalar products or outcomes) by controling certain others. Those components might be gain vil, Hs catch, or timber harvest. Or if conservation isthe gal, optimization might Be aimed at preserving as any species possible national park orreserve. Inthecssof gin ‘opt mightentai planting he aval and witha ingle igh yee ‘ng vuiey an shen mamizinggrowth with chemical friars and peat ‘conta, and using langestale copping machinery. Producton is ma ‘mien by igh comtoling each aspect of the production process. Optimizing for particular products has characterize the eary deve ‘opment of mitutal resource management, particularly in agriculture nial, worked. Indeed, tested in enormous advancesin ese produetvty and human welfare. Now, bowevey those sia sucoznses te bedevied hy a variety of emerging secondary and highly problem Sl effects on all continents and In all Oceans. Aw Ogden Nath writes, “Progress might have been alright once, but it has gone on too long” “An optimization approach aims to get system into some parciclar| “optinal tate” and then bold it there, That sae, it beloved, wil deliver maximum sussined benef Iissometimes recognized thatthe ‘optimal tate may vary under diferent conditions and the spoach is ‘then to find the optimal path for the tate ofthe system. This approach ‘sometimes refered nasa maxim sumainable led er optimal a ‘ainable yield paradigm "Bo achieve this ostoome, management tls models tha goneraliy| assume (among other unrecognized ascamptions) that change wil be incremental andinar (case and effet change), Phew models most Ignore the impllcationsof what mightbe happening at higher scales and frequently fait ake fl accoune of changes at lower les ‘Optimization doesnot work sabes pratice miel because his isnot how the world works. The systems we vein and depend on are usually tofigaed and reoofigured by extreme evens, not average eontons setae a twosear drought for example, toil peril plants ia op ‘al savannas, and thes extreme wot periods frre ones toe blew estab The inkagos beeen sles ad sctrs aul, nd sry, ‘ensewvation, nen, forestry, et) often die changes in the partial ‘system thatiingmanage, Ard, very importa we mina changes Tuwhing and nniinear tke mouse plagues i Austin wheat ops ‘Ling in Comples Wold nsec pat oubreas in forestin North Americ, andthe sudden change from clean, clear lake to one donated by an ala bloom, ‘The Paradox of Efficiency and Optimization “ifciency* ia comerstone of economics, and the very buss of env- ronmental economics In theory, an economy efficient fi inclades| all the things that puople wane nd value. An efficient economy, his ‘sens, is therefore a god thiag and efficiency has become tobe reganded ava laudable goal in policy and management. The paradox hat while ‘optimization is supposedly about effcenes, because applied to 8 ‘arrow range of valuesanda particlasetoflntcrasts,thesesuleiemajor InefTzlencosin heey we generate values forenceies.Beingelicent, ‘na nanow soase, ead elimination of redundances—kecping only ‘ose thing tha ave dizely and immediately beneficial, We wil show later that ths Rind oefiienc leads 1 dasticlosses in reslence, Optimization doesnot match he way our societies value hingsither. 11 promotes te simplification of vals oa few quantiale and at kotuble ones, such as timber pric, and denotes the mmpartance ofunquanifible ad unmarked valves sachs the ie suppor rege rate, and leaning services that ature provides collectively known 2s eoonystem services) It als discounts the vale paced om beauty tron the existence of species fr thet own sakes. Whether they resl- las tor not, societies depend for their existence on ecasystm aervices Ail societies alo value their ality o pass chese things Wo ture gen trations, Opemization, however, distorts this I redces ne herons tw couple of decades” she limit of heme horton for most commer- ‘lal investments, Vales that do ot have property rights or are publily| ened are nor marketed, do not geneate wealth, and gain Ite sup- or, even they involve ext] eenystem services. Olen not enouh people understand he ertcalty fe fe suppor ayes che ozone layer and climate regulation are examples “Though eleieney, pe se, not the problem, when i applied 0 only a natrow ong of vale and ptr ato intern et the system ona ajc dat, die tot complex nature, leads inet unwantedouteomes. The history of cology, economic, ad wooly {alo exam showing thatthe eysters around we the yee Wee pat of ae rl ore capes than our aston allo onResilience Thinking What call adds up o is that here sno sustainable ‘optima state of an ecosystem, a social system, or the wuld 1 an llusion, a product ‘ofthe way we olcat d model the word i unatainable; i ft ‘we shal at) itis counterproduciv, and yet isa widely purnued goa nslitle wonder then, that problems arise. And when they do, rather than question the validity ofthe mode being applied, the response has ‘been to attemg to exert even greater contol over the system, In most ‘asesthiseracerbstes the problem orleaves use gluon dhatcames ‘eth to high est ne sustained, ‘nthe real worl, reglons and businesses are interlinked systems lopeople and natute driven and dominated by the manner in which ‘hey vespond to and interact with each other. They are complex ‘ems, continually adapting to change. Change can be fast or slow — ove atthe speed of viruses multiplying or of mountains ising, fe fan te place onthe scale of nanometers cr tlometers. Change at fone level can influence others, cascade down or up levels, renvigo- ‘te, or destroy. ‘The ruling parsdigm—that we can optimize components of a system in isolation ofthe rest ofthe system—is proving inadequate to deal wih the dynamic compleity ofthe real world, Sustainable ‘solutions to our growing resource problems need to look beyond & business as usual approach, ‘flues mount, and as more and more people become awa of| thom, there ea rowing desatstaction with the ways in which nator resources ate managed, What are the important qualities ofa system that need to be maintained or enhance fra sytem ioe austin? Reslcnce thinking isn approsch (part philosophy, prt pragmatism) that seks answers to these questions, The Key to Sustainability? \Whatis your version of sustainability? Ie summed up by the cate Phrase rede, ete, and recycle” (rede your wast, use what you have, and reyele everthing else)? Ae you impressed by notions of ecological oops and living within the carrying capacity ofthe land? ‘Are you stving fora actor four improvement for the Fata in which | ‘ve double the production trom half the input? Or maybe we should ain for 3 acorn ving in Complex Wore ‘These approaches encapsslate some af the more malnstieam ‘ought on sustsiabiiry, and they all revolve arid te notion thet {he hey to sustainability lies in boing more efficent with our resource, we ante clever enough with the way we do things we can ive within the eareying capacity of our environment Of course, this kindof eiciency wil alway be an important pat of| ‘ny approach o usainabty. Bu, by tel and of tel ity not the Solution. Indeed, a8 we will show, by Welt has the potential tact ally work agains sustainability. Why? Because the more you optimize jlements ofa complexsystem of humas and nature fr eome specie {Bal the more you dimissh that systems elience Adve fort ef ‘GENTOpEal sate outcome has the eff of making the al stem ‘more vulnerable to shocks and distarbances While that might sound counterineitive se dhe inevitable conclu som reached by many studies investigating how socshecological stems change overtime This book aims tn explain the logic behing this seerningly perverse astcome By way of example ofthe tension betwoen reslence and efficiency, consider the rise of the justine” approach where manufacturers dispense with big stockplesof materials Instead parts and supplies ae delivered to fctory athe exact moment when they ace needed, The system, deemed tbe efficent and optimized, yield big savings in Inventory expense bt ic very senslve to shocks and hus resulted in ‘some severe industry dislocations when problemsup the tals o staff have resulted i erical supply shortages, ‘Thebotom line for sustainably ie hat ty propos fer sustainable evelopment that does notexplely acknowledge systems reslence ‘simply not going to eep delivering the goods (or serves). The key ‘o.ussinability es in enhancing he reslience of social ecological aye- tems, notin optimizing isolated components o the system ‘Thedebateon sustainability has come along way in recent decades, But if we examine i though a eslence lens clear that we sil have away’ wih mate Embracing Change—The Heart of Res the change ple notion things nd 40 ignore oF resist this change Is € increase our fo wha,Resilience Thinking voinerabiity and forego emerging opportunities. tn a0 doing, we Jnmit our options. Sometimes changes are slow (ike population growth}; sometimes | hey ave fat (lke exchange rates, or the Price of food and fel) Humans are usvally good at noticing and sponding rap change. Unfortunately we are not so good at responding to thing that change slowly. In part eh is because we don't notice then and in pat i's ‘because often there seems litle we can do about them. The sae of {he human population ssa key slow variable, for example, So 100 is tlhmate change. But fw people believe tere is anything they an do directly co influence either ‘mand of eel, change ie neither bad nor good, ean have desiable ‘undesirale outcomes, and i frequently produces surprises, ‘These broad statements, when applied 9 interacting systems of humans and nature (eociat-eclogial ystems, tke on special mean ings with imporant consequences. Resilience thinking presents approach to managing natal esources that embraces man and natural systems as complex systems continually adapeing though cycles of change. Most of the concepts in this book are not new. Concepts of resilience and changing ecosystems have been around for decades However, only secendly have interdtiplinary groups of sclentsts begun to tackle the problem in earnest The Sante Fe Institut, for ‘example, is one well-known group that has spawned ideas about chaos theory, network dynamics, and, latter, robustness. Another such groupie the Resilience allince, a collection of researchers ‘who have pooled their insights a develop a framework for under standing change in social-ecologicl systems. Through the efforts of groups like these, resilience thinking may provide valuable insights to sustinabiiy. ‘A Roadmap to this Book ‘hee ate many ways to present a framework or rsance thinking \Wiehavechosen w approach thy aking eee step The frst ys down foundation for understanding, the second outines the ear ofthe Dappled to addessing challenges nthe ral work nao explore how resilience thinking might ‘ving in a Complex World " ‘The frat step involves considering systems perspective of how the sword works Weave all port of inked systems of humans and nature (refered to throughout this book a8 soiaecoogial sytem) ‘These systems are complex adaptive systems “+ Reslence i the key to the sustinabilit in these asters A aditional command-and-oonrl approach to managing resus usually fas acknowledge the limi to predictability inherent in a complex adaptive system, The tradionl approach als wads to place ‘humans ouside the system. Resilience diaking systems thinking, a cencepe that s more fly expozed in chapter 2 “The second sep s 1 develop an understanding ofthe two central ‘hemes that underpin resilence inking: + Thesholds: Soca ecological systems can exist in more than fe Kind of able state. 1Fa system changes too much it crosses a threshold and begins behaving in a diferent way, ‘with ferent feedhacks between component pats and 8 Afferent src, Kes ai to have undergone a regime Shit" This theme of thresholds and ‘changing to much? i iscussed in chapter 3 s Adapive cyles: The other conteal theme to a esience approach is how soca-eoloieal systems changeover im ‘systems dynamics, Socialecological systems ar always chan Ing. useful way to think about this ist conceive ofthe system moving timugh ur phases: rapid grow, conserva tion, release, and reorganization usualy, bu nt alway, in that sequence: This is knowa atthe adaptive cycle and these ‘eyeles operate over many diffrent scales of ime and space, ‘The manner in which they ave inked across sales is racially important forthe dytamice ofthe whole ret. These eas sre cxplored in chapter 4, “The thi step isto apply this understanding co the el worl ‘How might a rete wha + what are he mpleadons for policy and management? Wha might a esi wot Be tk approach be put ito operation fare the cot ofa valence approach?2 Resilience Thinking While framework foresee thinking provides valuable insights mo ehy and how sytoms behave a they do, to have pli and mane ‘agement relevance it needs be able 9 solve problems in resource ‘uanagemient, which is discussed in chapters Sand 6. In chapter 6 we also discusshow managing fr resitence has the capacity toceate pace ina shrinking world by opening wp options rater than closing them oven. Resilient socal-eologal systems have the capacity to change as the world changes while sll siaintaining thelr Funetionatity Resilient ystems are more open wo multiple ses while being more fore firing of management mista, While every effort has been made to keep jargon and termina: ogy oa minimum, resience thinking does cantan several concepts that can seem a bit daunting to the uninitiated oa fit expose Wie encourage teaders not toe too worried about understanding every detail on the fire reading. Instead ty to tke away 2 general appreciation of what thresholds and adaptive eycies ate, while tempting to understand them in relation tothe system ia which {you are interested ‘em if the finer deals of some aspects ofthe resilience approach remain ait obscure, if you can incorporate the bruder themes pre ‘sented here on lving within complex adaptive systems youl dseaver you've acquit a powerful set o insghs about how te world works (Concepis of sustainability, efciency, and optimization albino take ona new lig. ‘Our hope shat readers wil art asking questions about the systems inwhich cey veo in which hey are interest: What are the ey vat ables diving them? sth sytem approaching a threshold? What mane agement actions do you ned toconsiderin ode toda threshold? ‘Whatare the dynamicsof this sytem? What are the wnnectons between ‘he sale at which you are coacemed and the net level up and down? These areal bg questions that may note ey io anne However ‘he very act framing then ingeation he sytem in whieh you pay a le isan important stp toward resilience thinking etween each chaprer a case study on a resin listies the signi icance fesilence thinking when ape trea wld situations They \emonstete ts valu in nterpetingand understand wha es being ‘hanges being aed i Biv very di lagi ayer aud the work Living in 4 Complex World Five Regions, Five Stories “The Bee regions we discos ae ‘The Bverglades in Florida, United States: Rosy he wot ‘most famous marshland system. Sigaiiant parts of the rational pk have crossed a threshold int anew regime dominated by cals ‘The Goulburnteoken Catchment: One of Austria's moet agriculturally reductive regions Saline groundvater now ies Jus banoath the surface of the regions most poutine agricultural zene. 4 The coal reefs of the Caribbean: Once one of the most magni Seant coal systems in the world anda turd that wa {he economic lieood ofthe region. Inthe lae thirty yea 80 percont of han coral refs have disappeared andthe remaining wes ae at rk “The Northern Highland Lakes Disc of Wisconsin, United ‘States A fishing paradise with an uncertain fare The natural amenity of this muct-oved areas slowly being ota pop lation gow ‘The Kestancead Water Vttenke: An internationally renee weiland in southern Sade beloved wet meadows ate being Ios, water guilty in ei, and die habtat is appearing ‘Why thse five regions? hegin wth, they are fleet They have ‘very lite in common, wih diferent levels and éypes of population engage in diferent enterprises coping witha range of erent chal lenges What they do have in common is that ech i confanted with = ange of natural resoare and soil challenges that have mj iemp Cationstorthel niet andsuroundingregons, andvwe know ite Ss Totabout thm eal has orn died over many eat nah attempt ‘ounderstand th ecological nd sacnlogical processes that rivet ‘We have chosen ease studies ata reglonal sea because thi the focus of muh of the work ofthe Resllence Allin. However as he bass of esiioner thinking becomes cleat aon be apparent hat ie applies to systems of people ad nate at all levee ndiias, committe, busines, td nations ‘enormous resourve aves that ate nt daca in this ok ManyResilience Thinking parts of africa, for eample, are sufering chronic food shortage, d= ‘ease outbreaks, and socal install. Two ch region (in Mozambique land Zimbabwe) ate part ofthe Reslence Aan set of case sacs and there are many lessons in reslence thinking hat ae eelevant to these regions However to moet the needs of this ook asa inode ont retence thinking we have choten to examine Rie eons that ayo wall sded and tht reflect a range of contrasting ses Our tease study she Eversades, a worldenoventd wif wo erland at the southern tip of Florida in the United Sates attempts to ‘ame parts oft for agriculture and urban setlement over the last hun: red years have had mixed resus. On the one had the eon supports lot more people industry, and agriculture. On the oter, its natural ‘quale havegone ino steep deine, neadingits water quality, Devel ‘opment has rsulted in some significa gains but the cows ae only now being understood Key Points on Resilience Thinking * Corent approaches to sstinable naira resource management ae filling us, They are to often modeled on average condions ‘and expetations af incremental growth, nore major dst tances, and seck to apiize some component ofa sytem in ‘solation of other. Ths approach tas acknowledge how the sword actly works. ‘Business as usual is about increasing eMcency and optimizing performance ofthe parts of socil-ecological systems that deliver defined benef, bu fs acknowledge secondary foes and feaacks that cause changes (sometimes ix ‘vorsble dhangus) sa ee bigger system, seluding changes 9 ‘uecogrized berefs. While increasing eMcency is important for economic vabiliy, when underaken without enesidering ‘he broader sysem’ response it wil not leat sustatnabily ‘2c lea economic collapse. Besilence thinking is about understanding a engaging with » changing world. By understanding how an why the system as ‘holes changing, we are beter placed to build capacity ‘work with change, as opposed to boing a vein a