Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi - 2016 PDF
Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi - 2016 PDF
2
Aamir Mahar
In Search of Genuine Democracy
(September 19, 2016)
The international community celebrated the Democracy Day on
September 15, an acknowledgement of the importance assigned to
participatory governance and constitutionalism. Democracy is
viewed as a flexible, egalitarian and people’s oriented governance
system that is suitable for diversified societies. It is now so popular
that even dictatorial regimes adopt some semblance of democracy.
Consequently, democracy exists in different countries in various
shapes and forms.
Long time ago, a British philosopher, C.E.M. Joad, made a
comment about Socialism that can now be applied to democracy. He
said, “Socialism is like a hat that has lost its shape because
everybody wears it.”
This comment implies that only the use of label of “democracy”
does not make a political system democratic. The key question is
how judge the quality of democracy. Another problem is that
democracy is equated with political status-quo in some countries like
Pakistan where any challenge the sitting elected government is often
described as playing into the hands of the adversaries of democracy.
Still another problem is that many elected leaders think that their
electoral victory gives them license to pursue any political agenda
until the next general elections. Democracy has one major weakness
because it can be destroyed by democratic means. The elected
government can undermine democracy by resorting to what is
described as the “tyranny of the majority” which involves the use of
the voting power in the parliament to pass legislation that negates the
values and spirit of democracy. An elected leader can become an
3
Aamir Mahar
authoritarian ruler by using the democratic institutions and processes
to advance personal power agenda.
Democracy takes roots gradually over time provided the
dominant elite internalises democratic values and norms and works
towards implementing them in letter and spirit. Unless the
competing political players learn to restrain them on their own on
the basis of the fundamental assumptions and principles of
democratic theory, the country will suffer from democracy deficit.
The first major requirement of genuine democracy is the holding
of regular elections that are perceived as fair, free and transparent by
the major competing political parties. All of them should get a level-
playing ground and the procedures from the filing of the nomination
papers to election campaign and the polling day arrangements as
well as counting of votes and the declaration of result should to the
satisfaction of the candidates and independent observers. The voters
and the political parties should learn from electoral experience that
they can change the government through the ballot box.
Second, democracy is based on liberal constitutionalism. It needs
a well-established constitutional and legal system that recognises civil
and political rights, equality of all citizens irrespective of religion,
caste, ethnicity or language and region. An independent judiciary
ensures that the Rule of Law is available to all citizens. The civil and
political rights have to protected not only from the excesses of state
institutions and functionaries but also secured against powerful
interest groups that resort to violence or a threat thereof against any
particular community or region.
Third, the accountability of rulers and their immediate families is
another condition for improving the rating of democracy. No ruler is
4
Aamir Mahar
above law and he/she can be held accountable for their official
conduct while in office. There should be no tolerance for the conflict
of official and private financial interests on the part of the rulers.
The people holding key political offices cannot pursue personal
commercial interests and the members of their immediate family
cannot exploit the official position of their parents or guardians to
their financial and business advantage.
Fourth, all major government transactions, especially involving
state funds, must be transparent and available to any one for
inspection. If sensitive security issues are involved in any official
transaction it could be shared with the relevant committee of the
parliament and public dissemination of information can be avoided.
Fifth, democracy cannot be sustained if the elected political
government cannot control corruption and partisan use of state
resources by the permanent and political officials of the government.
Any democratic system will falter if the key government leaders and
officials freely engage in illegal practices for making money, allow
some people to engage in corrupt practice to secure state resources,
ignore financial corruption and looting of state funds in order to
build political support. Merit and professionalism should be the main
criteria for managing state affairs.
Sixth, the government must provide basic services to citizenry to
secure their voluntary loyalty for state institutions and processes.
These services include education and health facilities for all,
provision of clean drinking water, civic amenities and related
facilities that make it possible for the citizens to lead a peaceful and
secure life with the hope of better prospects for the future. The more
the government works for the welfare and betterment of the common
5
Aamir Mahar
folks, the greater are the prospects that the people would be
politically and psychologically attached with the political system.
Seventh, the state policies must take care of the disadvantaged
sections of the populace. The state must intervene in the economic
and societal domains in order to remove sharp economic disparities
among people and regions and work towards promoting socio-
economic egalitarianism. If inequities increase in the society, it will
contribute to breeding discontent, alienation and violence.
This seven - point criteria can be used to judge the quality of
democracy anywhere. What matters most is the overall direction of
the political system. Democracy will become sustainable if the
governance system is moving in the direction of achieving these
goals and the citizens learn from experience that the government is
genuinely working towards improving the quality of their life.
The countries that have returned to liberal constitutionalism and
democracy after long years of military or authoritarian rule, must
learn from the counties like Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, to name a
few, on pushing the military back and strengthening electoral
democracy. These civilian governments performed in the economic
domain, ensured good governance, provided a relatively secure and
peaceful living to common people and gave them the hope for a
better future.
A non-performing government cannot secure democracy only by
engaging in propaganda against the military to subdue it. Can
Pakistani rulers learn from these countries on improving the
prospects of democracy?
6
Aamir Mahar
Dynamics of Indo-US Military Cooperation
(September 5, 2016)
7
Aamir Mahar
the US to spy on China from its territory. From 1963, India began to
receive Soviet weapons, including the first MiG aircraft. The second
instance was the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation
of August 1971. The treaty’s text was crafted in a manner that it
could not be described as a purely bilateral military treaty. However,
the Soviets provided weaponry and diplomatic support to India for
the 1971 war with Pakistan.
Now, in 2016, India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has
entered into a formal military arrangement with the US, which
shows a major shift in the policies of both countries. The Modi
government has gone far ahead of the previous BJP government
under Atal Behari Vajpayee with reference to its relations with the
US. This negates India’s traditional non-aligned posture, although
some analysts would argue that it had long abandoned this policy to
get close to the US in the post-Cold War era.
Three major factors explain this departure in India’s foreign and
security policy. First, the Modi government is promoting a
Hinduism-based ultra-nationalism in the domestic context with the
support of the Sangh Parivar that upholds an extreme right-wing and
Hindu fundamentalist vision of India. In foreign policy, it advocates
greater Indian assertiveness and a hard line towards external
adversaries. Such a strident approach to foreign policy is
strengthened from military and diplomatic cooperation with the US.
Second, the global foreign policy agendas of China and India are
bound to clash in five to 10 years’ time. China is on the way to
becoming a global power. India is an aspirant for such a status.
China’s One Belt, One Road policy of global economic connectivity
and trade has caused serious concerns in India and the US because
such inter-continental connectivity gives much diplomatic and
8
Aamir Mahar
economic clout to China. In this connection, the CPEC gives a
relatively secure sea access to China as there are no hostile states in
the vicinity of Gwadar in comparison to the situation in South China
Sea. However, US naval ships are often present in the area and these
would increase surveillance of China’s activity in Gwadar. A
military cooperative arrangement between the US and India that
includes the opening up of all Indian military bases to the US, serves
the Indo-US shared agenda of keeping China under check.
Third, India’s current repression in Indian-administered Kashmir
has come to the notice of the international community. Pakistan is
expected to raise this issue in a more vocal manner in the
forthcoming UN General Assembly session. By linking up with the
US military agenda in the expanded Asian region, India hopes to
restrain the US and some of its allies from publicly criticising its
ongoing efforts to suppress the Kashmiri struggle by coercive means.
The US has made two additional concessions to India. It has
proposed an India-Afghanistan-US dialogue on the Afghanistan
situation, and has extended full support to India’s cross-border
terrorism allegations against Pakistan. The US is attempting to kill
two birds with one stone: bring India in line with the US military
agenda in the region and increase diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.
If the efforts of four powers (Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the
US) could not find a solution to Afghanistan’s troubles, how could
the US succeed by knocking out China and Pakistan from the
process? If it is a question of Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction,
India can be helpful. However, if the idea is to settle the internal
strife in Afghanistan, this is an unrealistic proposal, which ignores
geographic realities. Further, the Afghan Taliban view the US,
Afghanistan and India as their adversaries and they are not expected
9
Aamir Mahar
to enter into a dialogue with them for a political settlement in
Afghanistan.
In view of US support, the Indian government will display more
arrogance and belligerence than ever in its diplomatic interaction
with Pakistan. It will insist more on a single-issue agenda of India’s
choice, for talks with Pakistan, i.e., Pakistan must satisfy India on
the terrorism issue first while rejecting Pakistan’s proposal for a
mutually agreed agenda for the talks. Similarly, Afghanistan will also
adopt a more hostile disposition towards Pakistan, knowing fully
well that such a policy is in harmony with the policies of India and
the US.
The US has increased direct diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to
force the latter to pursue a counterterrorism policy to Washington’s
satisfaction. Its top leadership has joined hands with Indian leaders
to publicly censure Pakistan on terrorism in the region. This policy
will further reduce the prospect of any meaningful dialogue between
India and Pakistan. The regional situation will slide towards more
acrimony and conflict. India and the US will not be able to tame the
Afghan Taliban and thus the current internal strife in Afghanistan
will aggravate.
12
Aamir Mahar
including those who are said to have used violence in support of their
personal and party agendas.
There is a lot of political activity going on against the PML-N,
but so far it has managed to withstand it because the opposition
parties are pursuing their anti-PML-N agendas separately. If they
join hands, the PML-N will find it extremely difficult to cope with
the protests. Furthermore, much depends on the capacity of the PTI,
the PAT and the Jamaat-e-Islami to sustain street protests for at least
two weeks in Lahore, the heartland of the PML-N. The ambiguous
disposition of the PPP towards the growing conflict between the
PML-N and the PTI and other above-named political parties
weakens its efforts. The PML-N is confident that Asif Ali Zardari
and his close associates would stand by it if the crisis accentuates.
However, the PPP leadership in Punjab wants to pursue open
confrontation with the PML-N in Punjab. At the moment, some PPP
leaders, mainly from Punjab, are engaged in tough talk against the
PML-N, but the Dubai-based leadership wants to keep its options
open. If the opposition protests intensify, the PPP is expected to face
internal turmoil on its vague policy.
It is difficult to predict whether the opposition will succeed or
not. As long as the PML-N maintains a monopolistic control of
political power in Punjab, it can wriggle out of the difficult situation.
However, the political process will get more fragmented with
multiple divisions and splits. This will add to the uncertainty
regarding the future of Pakistan’s domestic political system. Even if it
does not collapse, it can become dysfunctional unless the PML-N
accommodates some opposition demands, makes changes at the
federal cabinet level and adopts policies that directly benefit the
people and address growing socioeconomic inequities rather than
13
Aamir Mahar
buying off loyalties through allowing corruption, making partisan
use of state patronage and subordinating the bureaucracy and the
police to its whims.
The uncertain situation can get out of control of the current
rulers by a triggering factor that can shoot out of a court decision,
greater political assertion by the opposition, a decision of the federal
government to make extensive use of the coercive apparatus of the
state against the opposition, rebellion in the PML-N, or an adverse
development in the government’s relations with the establishment.
The political future is uncertain and open.
14
Aamir Mahar
Pakistan is moving towards a major political confrontation
between the ruling PML-N and the opposition parties. It may be
difficult to predict its outcome, but it will surely create an uncertain
situation that could be manipulated in multiple directions.
Three political parties want to demonstrate their popular
support individually in their own ways. The PTI launched its first
protest on August 7 and it plans to stage marches from one city to
another, and hold public meetings in the future. The Pakistan
Awami Tehrik (PAT) started its protest on August 6 to seek justice
for the 14 people killed in the Model Town area, Lahore, by
indiscriminate police firing in June 2014.
The PPP will launch public rallies after adopting a ‘wait and see’
approach to gauge how the situation develops after the PAT and PTI
protests. It appears that the PPP is pursuing a dual-track policy of
building political pressure on the government as well as seeking some
political accommodation with it. The Punjab-based PPP wants to
take on the PML-N in order to assert its autonomous identity.
Bilalwal Bhutto Zardari is inclined towards such a head-on
confrontation with the PMLN. However, Asif Ali Zardri, Khurshid
Shah and Faryal Talpur are more interested in getting some political
concessions from the PML-N in return for staying quiet on the
sidelines. The PML-N circles are of the view that that the PPP would
not engage in a persistent confrontation with them. Such a soft
approach may serve Zardari’s personal agenda, but it will undermine
the PPP in Punjab where the policy of compromise with the PML-N
has already led to the decline of the former.
15
Aamir Mahar
While the PML-N is dismissive of the opposition protest,
Nawaz Sharif has become active in rehabilitating his contacts with
allied political parties and is giving more time to his party’s
parliamentarians. The prime minister presided over special meetings
to review the development work done by various government
departments and new development plans were announced for the
next two years. The Punjab chief minister is devoting more attention
to different power projects in the province. Last week, he took media
personnel to three power projects under construction to assure them
that these would become operational on schedule in 2017. These
efforts are meant to assure the people that their socioeconomic
problems and especially the shortages of electricity would be
addressed adequately in the next two years so that they stay away
from the current opposition protests.
The government and the opposition are also engaged in a legal
battle against each other. Four petitions have been filed with the
election commission for the prime minister’s disqualification with
reference to his family assets uncovered by the Panama Papers. As a
rejoinder, the PML-N has filed a reference against Imran Khan and
one of his senior colleagues for disqualification before the National
Assembly speaker. No matter what the decision is on these petitions
and references, the stage is set for a major political confrontation
whose outcome is uncertain. There is one positive sign for the PML-
N in this troubled political situation. The three parties that want to
show their street power are not working from a single political
platform. This weakens the opposition and gives a lot of breathing
space to the PML-N. If the ruling party’s calculations about the PPP
materialise, the opposition’s efforts to dislodge the government will
be further weakened.
16
Aamir Mahar
Besides the pressures from political circles, Nawaz Sharif faces
pressures of another kind from the military. Four issues are of
current relevance: military action in Punjab; the monopolistic control
of Punjab by the PML-N; the management of the CPEC; and the
appointment of the new army chief.
There is criticism from Sindh’s political circles for there not
being any tough military action in Punjab, which has the reputation
of being a safe haven for sectarian and other extremist groups. The
military launched an operation in Punjab after the bombing incident
in Iqbal Town Park. However, there was opposition by the Punjab
and federal governments to any autonomous operation by the
military in the province. If the military gets a free hand in Punjab,
the PML-N’s monopolistic control of the province will be
compromised, which it cannot afford at this stage. The key to the
PML-N’s success in the next general election is its monopolistic
control of Punjab. It fully controls the top bureaucracy, business and
commercial activity, and has created a big class of beneficiaries and
dependents in the province by tolerating corruption and distributing
state patronage on partisan considerations. These beneficiaries and
the bureaucrats will ensure that votes are delivered to the PML-N in
such large numbers that it sweeps the polls in the province. By
winning over some independents and smaller parties from other
provinces, the PML-N can then continue to hold on to power
beyond 2018.
However, if its grip over Punjab loosens, there will be defections
from its support base and it will not be able to sweep the polls in the
province.
Similarly, the PML-N wants to retain the exclusive control of
the CPEC, which gives access to power generation and other projects
17
Aamir Mahar
whose location can help obtain political dividends. The
establishment, on the other hand, is in favour of an autonomous
authority looking after CPEC affairs. The Chinese government is
favourably disposed towards an increased role of the army in CPEC
management. Similarly, if the prime minister attempts to by-pass the
established procedure for appointment of the new army chief, this
could cause major problems.
If political confrontation persists for some time, the political
situation will become uncertain. The simmering discontent will then
persist. However, some sudden triggering development either
because of the confrontation between the PML-N and the opposition
or because of adventurism on the part of the prime minister in his
interaction with the establishment can create an entirely new
political scenario.
18
Aamir Mahar
exclusion of the top military brass, which exercises clout over
policymaking from the sidelines.
Such a situation is more likely to arise in countries that have
shaped as security states mainly due to external security pressures
and internal political and societal incoherence, rampant extremism
and an incessant use of violence by competing politico-religious
interests. Governance involves balancing the imperative of
participatory democracy and good governance with the pressures of
national security.
A troubled political system like ours cannot be effectively
managed singlehandedly by either the civilian or the military elite
alone. They need to work in harmony, pursuing cooperation where
they need to work together and, at the same time, respecting each
other’s institutional autonomy.
The shared policymaking areas include internal and external
security affairs and the interaction between the demands of national
security on internal political and economic matters as well as the
financial implications of security. Each side also has its own
exclusive domain. The civilian government manages exclusively
political issues and day-to-day governance affairs and provides basic
services to the common people. The military’s exclusive domain
includes internal and organisational service matters, disbursement of
the defence budget, and professional affairs.
There are areas of military activity whose boundaries are not yet
fully determined. One of these is the periodic civilian demands on
the military to undertake tasks outside of its professional domain.
The ‘Aid to Civil’ is an established role of the military. However, if it
is called out too frequently for civilian tasks, it makes the civilian
19
Aamir Mahar
government vulnerable to criticism that it is unable to perform its
primary tasks.
A good example of civilian-military cooperation is the handling
of terrorism. The military deals with terrorists and criminal elements
that challenge the writ of the state. However, the civilian aspects of
extremism and terrorism are the responsibility of the civilian
government. The elimination of terrorist hideouts and training
centres is important but this cannot be achieved if the civilian
dimension of terrorism is not addressed. Counterterrorism and
counter-insurgency efforts must have full political ownership of the
civilian government, the political elite and society.
On June 7, a meeting was called between the military top brass
and top civilian officials to discuss the current security and foreign
policy challenges. The army chief and his principal staff officers
sought more activism from the civilian government to address the
challenges. We then saw the Foreign Office showing activism by
giving a briefing to some diplomats in Islamabad on Pakistan’s
policy on a number of issues. The adviser on foreign affairs
addressed a press conference on Pakistan’s relations with the US and
Afghanistan, and our membership bid for the Nuclear Suppliers
Group. Several other officials and ministers gave a special briefing
on Pakistan’s economy to some foreign diplomats and the Pakistani
media on June 9.
The key issue is why the civilian leadership did not embark on active
diplomacy on its own? Why was it slow in responding to diplomatic
and economic challenges until the establishment pushed it?
Pakistan’s current foreign policy crisis and a slow response to
the changing regional and global situation represent a multifaceted
20
Aamir Mahar
dilemma. The three dimensions of the crisis include: a lack of a
comprehensive vision of what Pakistan should achieve in the next
five to 10 years and through what strategies rather than complaining
about the whole world undermining Pakistan; a leadership crisis in
the sense that too many people are poking their noses in foreign
policy, resulting in incoherence and inaction; and personal
preferences of the rulers that may not necessarily advance our long-
term interests.
Pakistan needs smart diplomacy to deal with India, Iran and
Afghanistan as well as to cope with the current trouble in its relations
with the US. Smart diplomacy seeks to find alternative ways to deal
with a situation when one option does not offer a credible
opportunity. You do not wait for the situation to change on its own;
you invoke different diplomatic options to create space for yourself.
If India has a secured trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia
through Iran, Pakistan should not view this as a threat. Instead it
should quickly take practical step to obtain gas and electricity from
Iran. If this economic connection is built, Iran will have greater
interest in cultivating Pakistan because this economic relationship
will not require the use of a land route of a third country.
Pakistan has shown greater interest in obtaining LNG/gas from
Qatar and it is hoping that gas will also be available from
Turkmenistan through the TAPI project. Similarly, Pakistan is very
keen to get electricity through the CASA-1000 project from Central
Asia. However, given the law and order situation in Afghanistan and
Pakistan’s troubled relations with that country, TAPI and CASA-
1000 may not materialise in the near future. Pakistan wants to wait
for these projects rather than seek gas and electricity from Iran. Our
future demand for gas and electricity is going to be so high that we
21
Aamir Mahar
will be in a position to consume gas and electricity from all these
sources. However, our rulers are pushing their personal preferences
rather than adopting a realistic approach to address the energy
problem.
There are many other examples from Pakistan’s foreign and
security policies, which show poverty of vision and leadership in
exploring new options. Had China not been so supportive, Pakistan
would have faced even more diplomatic embarrassment at the global
level.
Pakistan’s civilian leadership and the establishment have now
adopted a more forthright position in their interaction with the US
delegation that visited Pakistan on June 10. Pakistan has asked for
reciprocity in relations rather than the US presenting a demand list
for dealing with terrorism.
Hopefully, the vitality demonstrated in our foreign and security
disposition after the meeting between the military top brass and the
civilian leadership will improve the prospects of initiating smart
diplomacy and new options for coping with our current economic,
military and diplomatic pressures.
22
Aamir Mahar
country. The PML-N took the lead in celebrating the failed attempt
at a coup in Turkey by a section of its military on July 15. While
extending full support to the Turkish government led by President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, PML-N
leaders described the collapse of the coup as a triumph of democracy
and a clear assertion of the power of the people, who came out in the
streets on the appeal of President Erdogan to challenge rebellious
troops.
Pakistan’s print and electronic media carried articles
ancomments in support of the Turkish government. The Senate
passed a resolution that endorsed Turkish democracy and
appreciated the courage of the Turkish people to stand up to the
military and protect the elected civilian government.
Not many people in Pakistan paid attention to the history and
dynamics of civil-military relations in Turkey, which makes that
country different from Pakistan in several respects. Similarly, no one
talked about the challenges to Turkish democracy despite the failure
of the coup and how President Erdogan was using emergency
powers in the aftermath of the coup to cleanse the military, civilian
institutions and lower judiciary of his political adversaries and pack
these institutions with loyalists. The current tensions in civil-military
relations in Turkey are expected to persist and these might lead to
fresh upheavals in politics. The Turkish government plans to purge
the military of the Gulenist elements and some of its top
commanders are going to be put on trial at a time when military
cohesion and morale are needed to cope with Kurd separatists and IS
extremists.
Pakistani enthusiasm for the beleaguered Turkish government
can be better understood in the context of the uncertain civil-military
23
Aamir Mahar
relations in Pakistan. The PML-N and its allies have played up the
Turkish episode in order to deter Pakistan’s security establishment
from expanding its role in the political domain. The ruling party is
hoping that the threat of popular resistance would contain the role of
the military and ensure civilian continuity in Pakistan.
The single variable explanation of the failure of the military
coup in Turkey is misleading. The response of the people to the
appeal for help by President Erdogan was an important contributory
factor, but this was not the key element in the civilian triumph. The
initiator of rebellious coup violated the standard operating procedure
for staging a coup. First, if a coup is not spearheaded by the top
command of a professional military, it is likely to collapse. In this
case, the rebellious elements have to fight on two fronts: their
colleagues who refuse to join them and the political leadership that
needs to be dislodged. This divides the military and dissipates their
energy for swift action. Second, it is important for the military
staging a coup to establish quick control over key government
offices, disarm its security system and take over the official
communication system.
A divided military will always find it difficult to establish a
stable control of state institutions and networks. Third, the top
leadership to be dislodged needs to be quickly isolated from their
loyalists and supporters so that they do not mobilise them. The key
leaders of the target regime are either arrested or detained in their
residences in a manner that they are isolated from the outside world.
The rebellious Turkish military failed on all three counts. The
military as a whole was not united and it was unable to control key
government installations in Ankara and Istanbul. It did not know
that President Erdogan was not in Ankara that night. By the time it
24
Aamir Mahar
came to know of his location, he was able to issue an appeal to the
people and moved to Istanbul which was his main support base as
had served as mayor of Istanbul in the past. As the people realised
that the president and the prime minister were free to function, the
public responded positively to the appeal. It took almost three hours
from the first information about the beginning of the coup for the
public to take to the streets in large numbers. Had the rebellious
military succeeded in following the first three standard operating
procedures, the appeal to the people — which actually led to the
failure of the already-faltering coup — could not have been made.
The popular response to President Erdogan’s appeal in Turkey
can be attributed to the government’s successful economic and social
development policies since the Justice and Development Party came
to power in 2002. The Turkish government was able to improve the
delivery of basic services to the people and this created a widely
shared perception at the grassroots level that the people’s quality of
life had improved under this government.
The Turkish public reciprocated the good work done by
Erdogan as prime minister (2003-14) by responding positively to his
appeal.
In the case of Pakistan, however, it is difficult to say whether
the civilian federal and provincial governments have adequately
addressed the socioeconomic problems of the poor or improved the
quality of life of ordinary people in the country. The current political
order has entrenched itself in Pakistan by tolerating corruption and
has relied on the partisan use of state patronage to build support.
Therefore, the direct beneficiaries of state patronage and those who
have made money one way or another under the current civilian
order are expected to support such a corrupt and lopsided system in
25
Aamir Mahar
Punjab. However, the probability is extremely low that there would
be a spontaneous display of popular support in the major cities if the
civilian order is threatened by non-democratic pressures.
The civilian order in Pakistan can be secured by ensuring
corruption-controlled governance and political accommodation with
the opposition. This needs to be coupled with managing irritants in
civil-military relations, such as the extension of the powers of the
Rangers in Sindh, security and foreign policy priorities, civilian
aspects of countering terrorism and relations with India and
Afghanistan. Consensus-building on these issues can strengthen trust
between civil and military authorities and this holds the key to
political stability in Pakistan.
27
Aamir Mahar
Others appear convinced that only non-Muslims could launch an
attack in Saudi Arabia.
If the sources of the attacks are externalised — the West and the
enemies of Islam — then there are limited chances of checking these
incidents. What are the options available to the target states to adopt
punitive action against some Western countries and unidentified
enemies of Islam? All major militant movements like al Qaeda, the
IS, the Taliban, al Shabaab and others invoke religious doctrines by
giving them their own extreme interpretations that justify the use of
violence in certain situations. Most of them want to grab political
power in some country. The IS talks about a transnational Islamic
state under a caliph.
The major causes of the rise of these militant organisations and
terrorist incidents have to be located within each country. It is the
local and regional conditions that give rise to such movements and
expose these countries to external penetration and influences.
External players — states and movements — exploit the troubled
situation in a country to their political advantage. These militant
movements can attract external financial and material support,
provided the external players are convinced that such movements
have developed the capacity to impact the internal situation in the
country of their existence.
The role of these movements is linked closely with the internal
conditions of a country, internal divisions and conflicts, religious-
sectarian divides and the inability of the government to assert the
primacy of the state. If the government policies become very
oppressive and highly partisan, the movements based on religious or
secular ideologies can emerge to challenge the state system. The
experience of many Islamic states shows that if the state system
28
Aamir Mahar
becomes too oppressive, hardline interpretation of religion becomes
the idiom of dissent. In certain cases, Muslim states patronised
religious orthodoxy and militancy and with the passage of time some
of these movements went out of control.
Such movements have greater prospects in states that suffer from
internal chaos and a weakened state authority, or if state authority is
too partisan in political management. Iraq is a good example of how
internal chaos and non-existent governance enables such movements
and groups to grow. Iraq’s troubled internal situation enabled al
Qaeda and some other extremist groups to make inroads. Later, the
IS virtually replaced all of them. It also benefited from the internal
conflict in Syria. The troubled internal situation in Yemen, Somalia
and Libya provided safe havens to extremist and terrorist groups.
Saudi Arabia experienced terrorism in the past. Now, it faces a
new wave of terrorist incidents. It needs to examine internal sources
of terrorism, the export of a fundamentalist religious ideology to
other countries and its involvement in regional conflicts, especially in
Yemen and Syria.
Turkey’s ambiguous approach vis-a-vis the IS’s role in Syria, in
view of its confrontation with the Kurdish movement, has enabled
the militant group to make inroads into Turkey. It needs to review its
regional approach.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ill-advised
strategy of eliminating her political opponents, such as those within
the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, has made
more societal space available to hardline militant groups. She needs
to adopt an accommodating disposition towards the political
29
Aamir Mahar
opposition that functions within the constitutional framework in
order to stall the current drift towards extremism.
Above all, the political divide in the Middle East between Saudi
Arabia and Iran has increased intra-regional conflict and
vulnerability to external political and military interventions. These
two states need to moderate their competing political agendas and
reduce their involvement in affairs of neighbouring countries.
Internal turmoil in Syria and Yemen has created safe havens for
extremist and terrorist groups.
The sooner Muslim states recognise that the key solutions to the
problems of extremism and terrorism lie in their hands, the better.
35
Aamir Mahar
hand, the militant group and its Pakistani sympathisers blame our
government for serving American agenda in the region.
Pakistan’s policy on American drone strikes continues to lack
credibility. Since the beginning of the strikes in 2004, Pakistan has
periodically protested against them but to no avail, although their
frequency has declined in recent times. It appears that Pakistan only
protests against them to keep its foreign policy record straight and to
satisfy domestic political needs.
In terms of abstract principles of international law and the notion of
sovereignty, Pakistan has some options available to counter the
drone policy. However, Pakistan's rulers need to enlighten the people
as to the practical options available to them in view of the ground
realities of global and regional politics and Pakistan’s dependence on
the US in the economic and military spheres.
There is a need to conduct a down-to-earth review of Pakistan’s
foreign policy parameters, especially with respect to its Afghanistan
policy. This calls upon the rulers to pursue a unity of command for
foreign policymaking and management.
In contemporary world politics, a credible foreign policy is based on
the inner political and economic strengths of a country and the
positive relevance of that country to other states, especially its
immediate neighbours. Pakistan needs to give high priority to putting
its political and economic house in order. The government and the
opposition need to work towards building political harmony and
trust by cultivating political accommodation and constitutionalism in
letter and in spirit. Democracy cannot be a cover for perpetuating
socio-economic and political inequities, and corruption and misuse
of state resources.
36
Aamir Mahar
A viable economy with minimum dependence on foreign aid
increases the foreign policy options available to a country. The aim
has to be to improve the quality of life of ordinary people through
participatory development.
In addition, Pakistan needs to control religious and cultural
intolerance and terrorism. The military has played an important role
in meeting these challenges. The civilian governments should be
more forthcoming with the civilian aspects of countering terrorism.
Unless Pakistan addresses this issue, it will find it difficult to build a
positive relationship with the rest of the world.
It can also expand its foreign policy options by articulating mutually
rewarding economic considerations. A relationship can be judged by
the tangible expansions of trade, investment and cultural interaction
rather than giving a countdown of the signed MoUs, which are not
always implemented. With the exception of China, there is hardly
any significant and concrete expansion of Pakistan’s relationship in
the above categories with any country during the last three years.
Pakistan faces a serious energy crisis, which is adversely affecting our
economy. Therefore, we need to get gas and electricity from all
possible places in the neighbourhood rather than deciding this matter
on the basis of the priority of our rulers. Therefore, in addition to the
current energy projects that we are pursuing, we need to obtain gas
and additional electricity from Iran as there is no intervening foreign
territory for trade and energy transfers from that country. Peace on
Pakistan’s borders is an important requirement.
Pakistan's borders should be breached by roads, railways, pipelines,
electricity transmission lines, trade, and people rather than by violent
37
Aamir Mahar
elements, intelligence agents, drugs and illegal human and material
smuggling.
39
Aamir Mahar
assets in Sindh. These may prove to be false hopes because the
federal government is not in a position to protect Zardari loyalists. If
the PPP decides to side with the PML-N, the PPP’s fate will be
completely sealed in Punjab, at least for the next general elections.
The Jamaat-e-Islami has already launched its protest for the
elimination of corruption, although it has not so far held a joint rally
with the PTI. A number of religious groups are unhappy with the
PML-N for different reasons. The Pakistan Awami Tehrik has
decided to join the ranks of the opposition on the issue of the
Panama Leaks. If these parties and religious groups decide to work
together to challenge the PML-N, it will face an extremely difficult
situation. If these groups continue to oppose the government in their
individual capacity, a political stalemate can persist for a longer time.
The PML-N has decided to adopt a strident approach towards
the opposition, especially the PTI. The Sharif brothers are holding
public meetings in different cities, showering the people with state
funds for development projects and infrastructure work. They are
also promising to end electricity shortages, reduce its price and make
state funds available to people through one project or another. State
funds are being used liberally in pursuing a media campaign. An
important political line pursued by the PML-N is to label all political
adversaries as anti-national and anti-people because these are said to
be undermining the government’s public welfare projects.
Another dimension of the current political situation is the
growing strain in civil-military relations and subtle anti-military
propaganda by the federal government. The main line of argument is
that the military is using its clout to pressure the elected government.
Some political activists are saying that any unconstitutional change
40
Aamir Mahar
or coup will not be accepted. Some are raising questions as to who
was using Imran Khan against Nawaz Sharif.
The PML-N is disturbed by the army’s unilateral decision to
undertake a security operation against the facilitators of terrorism in
Punjab and its success in busting the Chottu gang after the Punjab
police’s failure to do so. Further, the army chief’s statement calling
for an end to corruption altogether and the announcement of
punitive action against senior army officers are viewed by PML-N
loyalists as pressure tactics against their governments in Islamabad
and Lahore. The PML-N resists the military’s autonomous role in
Punjab because it compromises its claim of an exclusive and
unchallenged monopoly of power in Punjab.
The only option available to Imran Khan is to continue building
street pressure on the federal government and evolve a working
arrangement with other political parties to mount increased pressure.
Street protest will be his main strategy. This confrontation can persist
for several months unless the PML-N loses patience and engages in
some kind of political adventurism, either by using the state
apparatus against the opposition in a brutal manner or by using
executive powers to tame the security establishment in Punjab.
The government’s fight for survival will compromise its efforts to
address the issues of internal security. The agenda for madrassa
reforms and societal mobilisation for countering extremism and
terrorism will be put on the back-burner because it cannot afford to
alienate more people. The struggle for power with an uncertain
outcome will mark Pakistani politics this summer.
41
Aamir Mahar
43
Aamir Mahar
order situation was under the government’s firm control. These
incidents included a suicide attack at a park in Lahore, killing 75
people; and the ‘Chhotu gang’ episode. The military was summoned
to restore the authority of the Punjab government.
Imran Khan and the PTI will find it difficult to build political
pressure on the PML-N government without getting the cooperation
of other opposition parties. The planned Lahore ‘sit-in’ may prove to
be as inconclusive as the one in 2014.
The other major opposition party, the PPP, is keeping its options
open. On the one hand, it wants a comprehensive scrutiny of the
financial affairs of the PM’s family. On the other hand, it does not
endorse the PTI’s demand for the resignation of the PM and the
proposed Lahore sit-in. The PPP has kept its options open with the
hope that the federal government would offer to protect its key
activists against corruption charges in Sindh.
Another PPP concern pertains to the situation after the PM is
forced out of office. Will there be an in-house change, or will the
army impose a political set-up of its choice, thus delaying fresh
elections for an indefinite period? The PPP would prefer a weakened
PML-N government rather than early elections, because the PPP is
in a shambles in Punjab. Other opposition political parties may be
inclined to come out openly against the PML-N government if they
are assured that new elections would be held within the prescribed
constitutional period of time.
The PPP and some other opposition parties, like the ANP, are
reluctant to accept Imran Khan’s leadership. Another factor shaping
the disposition of the PPP is the reported inclusion of one or two
PPP names in the Panama list. The Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to
44
Aamir Mahar
support Imran Khan, but the JUI-F continues to stand by Nawaz
Sharif. Other religious parties are expected to wait to see how the
confrontation picks up.
Pakistan’s major political leaders are in London, pursuing
their exclusive agendas. Nawaz Sharif may seek the advice of
financial experts, to cover up the contradictions in the statements of
his sons regarding their financial affairs. Zardari would look for a
deal with Nawaz, while Imran Khan would explore ways to build
pressure on Nawaz.
The army is sitting quietly on the sidelines, watching how the
politicians manage the new political crisis. The military’s capacity to
influence political change will increase if the current conflict
escalates to open and widespread confrontation.
The current uncertain political situation can result in different
outcomes: the opposition parties joining together to challenge the
PML-N in the streets — accelerating internal conflict; Nawaz Sharif
continuing to rule as a weaker leader, giving greater initiative to the
military; an in-house change in the PML-N; an interim arrangement
for holding new elections as prescribed by the Constitution; a
military-backed civilian system that will stay in office for a year or
so, for controlling terrorism and political corruption; and a
stalemated confrontation between the PML-N and some opposition
parties. The PM-LN can run into serious trouble if it overplays its
administrative hand against the opposition. The party faces a real
testing time.
Politics in Pakistan has entered, once again, a new phase of
confusion and uncertainty. There is a need to think of the negative
consequences of the on-going political mud-slinging and in-fighting
45
Aamir Mahar
on Pakistan’s economy and the efforts to counter extremism and
terrorism.
46
Aamir Mahar
people prefer these political parties rather than religious parties. On
the other hand, religious political parties are under pressure from
hardline groups that espouse violence, if needed, to pursue their
religious and political agendas. Those with strong religious
orientations tend to lean towards these. Some activists shuttle
between religious political parties and militant and jihadi groups.
All religious political parties advocate an Islamic socio-political
and economic order for Pakistan and express varying degrees of
reservations on the notion of the ‘Islamic Republic’ as set out in the
Constitution of Pakistan. They talk of an Islamic order in broad
terms to reflect their aspirations, or discuss its features at a level of
abstraction. However, they diverge when it comes to translating the
abstract principles or their assertions and pronouncements into a
codified constitutional and legal system, institutional arrangements
and processes of an Islamic system needed for running a state in the
21st Century. They have not been able to produce a shared
constitutional and legal document as an alternative to the existing
constitutional and legal system.
Religious political parties have weak electoral standing. No religious
party has ever been able to secure more than a few seats in the
provincial and national elections. Their performance is better when
they build a nationwide or regional partnership or when they enjoy
the blessings of a military government. If they create a coalition of
their own, their electoral performance improves.
Several reasons explain their dismal electoral performance. Religious
political parties cannot make a credible claim that they are the only
saviours of Islam. The major political parties do not disown Islam.
The PML and its various factions, along with the PPP, the PTI, the
MQM and others, do not reject the identification of the Pakistani
47
Aamir Mahar
state with Islam. Their vision of an Islam-oriented political order
diverges from that of religious political parties. The notion of a
secular system in the Marxian sense has never been popular in
Pakistan. Most nationwide and regional political parties talk of
religious and cultural tolerance and socio-economic justice and the
notion of equality.
All political parties recognise the 1973 Constitution as the basic law
of Pakistan which provides theoretical as well as institutional
arrangements for deep connections between the Pakistani state
system and Islam. There is a definite guarantee for the Islamic
character of the Pakistani political system that takes steam out of the
slogan of some religious parties and militant groups that Pakistan is
being turned into a secular system.
Most religious parties have a religious-sectarian identity that restricts
the party to the people with a strong religious-sectarian orientation.
Others, who do not share the religious orientations of the party, stay
away from it. Religious political parties compete with one another
on the basis of religious outlook, sectarian identity and personality of
the leader. Even within each sect, there are more than one party,
making competition more narrowly focused.
Religious parties have an image problem. Not many people,
particularly the educated, trust religious leaders as having enough
political acumen and an understanding of the dynamics of domestic
and global politics. They tend to join the nationwide or regional
political parties in a very large number. The religious parties have to
compete with one another to build support from highly conservative
religious circles. With some exceptions, many religious parties either
sympathise with militant groups or maintain an ambiguous
disposition towards these groups. This alienates a good number of
48
Aamir Mahar
people from these parties. The strength of religious parties lies in
having street power of loyal activists and madrassa students. The
parties that have links with madrassas and mosques tend to develop
more political clout. Some parties have made inroads into
government universities and colleges to recruit young people to their
fold.
The strength of religious parties increased during the military rule of
General Ziaul Haq, when he joined with the US and Middle Eastern
states to build Afghan-Islamic resistance to Soviet troops in
Afghanistan. It was during this period that the Jamaat-e-Islami and
some other religious parties that were involved in the first Afghan
‘jihad’ or enjoyed the blessings of the military regime, strengthened
their position as money and weapons flowed to selected religious
parties and militant groups.
Some of these parties continued to maintain relations with militant
groups even after the end of the first Afghan ‘jihad’ and extended
support to al Qaeda and Taliban activists when they entered Pakistan
from Afghanistan, after the US launched its air attack on
Afghanistan in October 2001.
The recent use of violence by some religious parties with Barelvi
traditions has created a spectre of increased protest and violence.
However, the success of their protest depends on their capacity to
muster support from other political parties. Their active role in the
anti-Ayub and anti-Bhutto movements made a political impact
because they were working alongside nationwide political parties.
Similarly, some religious parties have exercised power at the federal
or provincial levels, in collaboration with nationwide and regional
political parties, or by either joining hands with military regimes or
enjoying their blessings. Religious parties can make life difficult for
49
Aamir Mahar
any government because of their cadres but none can, on their own,
come to power through elections.
50
Aamir Mahar
controversial. Therefore, it is important that a large number of
candidates and independent observers are satisfied with the election
process. In Pakistan, the 2013 elections are viewed as controversial
by almost all opposition parties for one reason or another. Even the
Judicial Commission investigating the fairness of the elections,
acknowledged widespread irregularities and doubtful votes.
However, it did not reject the election results. This strengthened the
legal legitimacy of the elections but these continued to be viewed as
controversial in the political circles.
Fair and free elections are an important conditions of democracy.
However, this is not the only criterion. The victory in the elections
does not give a free hand to the rulers to govern the country. The
second condition of democracy is that the ruler abide by the
constitution and strengthen democratic institutions and processes.
Every constitution creates institutions and procedures for law
making, governance and other affairs of the state. The important
institutions are the head of government and the cabinet, elected
parliament and its committees and political parties. How far the
cabinet meets regularly and makes the key policy decisions. If it is a
parliamentary system of government, the role of the parliament
becomes very important. It has to be examined how much
importance the government attaches to the parliament. How often
the prime minister and his cabinet members attend the session.
Similarly, role of the political parties is also examined to judge the
quality of democracy. They key issue is who makes the final decision
and who influences these decisions. How far non-elected institutions
like the military, the judiciary and powerful interest groups influence
policy decisions and their implementation.
51
Aamir Mahar
In Pakistan, there is little attempt to strengthen democratic
institutions. Federal and provincial cabinet do not always matter
much in policy making. The prime minister or the chief ministers run
the government as a personal empire, consulting ministers of his
choice. With the establishment of the Apex Committee at the
provincial level for countering terrorism, these committees meet
more frequently than the provincial cabinets. Federal cabinet also
does not meet regularly. The Prime Minister consults some key
ministers and top Army brass for decision-making. The Prime
Minister does not attend the National Assembly meetings regularly.
There are often complaints of non-availability of cabinet members in
the National Assembly and the Senate. The parliament in Pakistan
has not been able to become the main center of power and authority
in the state.
The third criterion for democracy is good governance. This
includes two major issues: law and order; and delivery of basic
services to citizens. The state authorities must be capable and willing
to provide security of life and property to the citizens. If some violent
groups threaten the state and its citizens, the credibility of the
government is undermined. The government must also ensure some
basic civic facilities throughout the country. These facilities and
services include health care, education, adequate supplies of food
and drinkable water and a clean and stable environment. It must
create job opportunities for people and help to ease economic
pressures on people. Here, the performance of various governments
in Pakistan for extending basic services to people is poor. There has
been a steady price hike of the goods needed by ordinary household.
The recent hike in the prices of medicines has hit all section of
population. The federal and provincial governments are unable to
check the increased medicine prices.
52
Aamir Mahar
The fourth criterion of democracy is the establishment of the Rule
of Law and ensuring equality of opportunity to all citizens. The
government should ensure that all citizens have equal protection of
law and they are treated equally by law. It should work for
promoting socio-economic equality of opportunities and avoid sharp
economic disparities in the society. If poverty and underdevelopment
increase in the society, there are greater chances of internal turmoil,
conflict and terrorism.
The fifth standard to judge democracy is the enforcement of
accountability of those exercising state power and authority. No
ruler can be above accountability. The accountability process should
be independent of the government so that it can judge the
performance of the ruler in terms of misuse of state resources,
corruption in managing state affairs, misuse of the office and living
beyond one’s means.
It is in the domain of accountability of the rulers that Pakistan’s
performance has been extremely weak. Now, the accountability
process is focusing on the PPP leadership in Sind. If it examines the
affairs of the Punjab and the federal government, the ruling PMLN
can run into serious difficulties. That is why the Prime Minister and
the PMLN leaders are critical of the role of the NAB and they want
to reduce its powers. The objective is to restrain it from looking into
the financial affairs of the government in the Punjab.
These five criteria are the minimum conditions for good democracy.
Most developing countries, including Pakistan, falter on them.
Pakistan has a democratic political system because the elections are
now held regularly. However, the quality of democracy is poor and
the rulers manage the state affairs in a personalized manner that
violates the spirit of democracy.
53
Aamir Mahar
(The Urdu version was published in Pakistan Post, New York, March 3,
2016)
54
Aamir Mahar
affairs of the PML-N big guns at the federal level and in Punjab. It
was reported that some of the major power-generation and transport
projects as well as the LNG project were under scrutiny. Some blue-
eyed bureaucrats of the federal and Punjab governments were also
said to be under investigation. All this perturbed the prime minister
because if these actions are allowed to go unchallenged, the PML-
N’s monopoly of power and resources in Punjab would be
undermined. The Punjab law minister defended the prime minister’s
criticism of NAB and blamed it for making big businessmen and
investors like Mian Mansha apprehensive about launching new
business and industrial projects. He also claimed that this would also
undermine the efforts for privatisation of state enterprises running in
losses.
The track record of NAB and its predecessor institutions for
accountability shows that the rulers are not held accountable for their
misdeeds. They may face accountability when they are knocked out
of power. Even in such cases if the ousted rulers agree to work
smoothly with the new rulers, they can save themselves from
accountability. Keeping in view this tradition, there is not much
hope of NAB holding the Sharif brothers, their senior advisers and
beneficiaries responsible for any corruption or partisan use of state
resources.
The prime minister or the Punjab law minister need not worry about
NAB pushing the complaints of corruption against the PML-N
leaders to their logical end. This is quite evident from NAB’s
response to the prime minister’s criticism that reflected its timid
traditions. What worries the prime minister and the PML-N’s top
leaders is that if the establishment extends its blessings to NAB, its
55
Aamir Mahar
chairman can adopt a tougher posture towards the PML-N ministers
and other big guns on corruption and misuse of state resources.
It is in the context of the recent prime ministerial statement on NAB
that the second development becomes significant. It is surprising that
the FIR against the Pathankot perpetrators has been filed in
Gujranwala for something that has taken place in another country.
Though no person or group has been named in the FIR, the phone
numbers given by India are expected to be pursued. The filing of this
FIR amounts to partly acknowledging that the incident originated
from Pakistan. India is not going to be satisfied with the registration
of the FIR. While giving credit to the Nawaz Sharif government for
this, the Indian government will use the FIR to engage in
propaganda against the Pakistani establishment. India’s game would
be to cause a breach between the civilian government and the
establishment because it already argues that Nawaz Sharif wants to
improve relations with India and promote trade and that the
establishment is not entirely on-board with this.
The timing of the filing of the FIR is significant. As has been noted,
the prime minister first made a statement about the ‘misdeeds’ of
NAB. Within a day of this statement, the federal government filed an
FIR in Gujranwala.
It is important that all stakeholders handle the situation with restraint
and caution. If the prime minister has embarked on these two
measures to assert his electoral strength and he hopes that the PPP
will stand by it as it did during the 2014 PTI dharna, he is likely to be
disappointed unless he agrees to protect the PPP’s interests in Sindh.
The prime minister should not overestimate his political clout as this
could prove to be misleading.
56
Aamir Mahar
Given the ongoing challenge posed by terrorism and extremism, the
civilian authorities and the establishment need to work in harmony.
However, the civilian government needs to pay more attention to
improving governance, controlling corruption and the highly
partisan use of state resources. Furthermore, the civilian government
should be willing to allow independent scrutiny of the major power
generation projects, the metro bus projects in Lahore and Islamabad
and other construction projects. Any rift in civil-military relations
can make the future of Pakistani democracy problematic and
uncertain.
57
Aamir Mahar
59
Aamir Mahar
Sindh to counter terrorism and extremism to take place in Punjab
because this would hurt its electoral base and compromise its control
of the province. As the policy of keeping all out of Punjab is
becoming unmanageable, the PML-N is not happy with the current
situation and equates its continued rule with protecting democracy in
Pakistan.
The military top brass is in favour of preserving civilian and
constitutional order and, at the same time, obtain active civilian
cooperation for countering terrorism at the provincial level,
especially in Punjab. These two agendas may not go together. The
political governments work with the military to counter terrorism.
However, these governments also want to protect their political and
electoral assets as well as their capacity to use state resources and
patronage for cultivating political support. This balancing of
imperatives of working with the military in countering terrorism and
preserving political and electoral assets is going to be extremely
difficult in Punjab, which holds the key to the PML-N’s staying in
power at the federal level. Any impression of the loosening of its
hold here can cause serious damage to the party’s ambitions for the
next general elections.
The third major player, the opposition, especially the PTI, wants
to pull down the governments of the Sharif brothers. The PPP saved
the PML-N from the dharna onslaught in 2014, but it has pulled
back from that policy without charting a new course of action. The
opposition parties are facing difficulties in building pressure on the
PML-N because of their mutual jealousies and disharmony. The PTI
and the PPP detest each other. The MQM’s agenda is shaped by its
interests in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi. The smaller
opposition parties have their exclusive agendas and seek individual
60
Aamir Mahar
arrangements with the PML-N government. The opposition,
therefore, finds it quite frustrating when it cannot exert sustained
pressure on the government.
The current wave of protest and agitation has put to test the
PML-N’s skills to cool down the growing resentment against its
policies. The PML-N leadership is not yet willing to accept that its
elitist and self-serving policies have caused alienation and resentment
at the level of the ordinary citizen. The only reason that the current
situation has not blown out of control is that the opposition is
divided and the military is working within the existing arrangement
in order to counter terrorism and extremism.
The PML-N can hold on to power in such a stalemate. It can
improve its prospects by recognising that public anger against its
policies is genuine. It must give up its personalised and clannish rule
for improved governance, pay greater attention to fairness and
transparency in the management of the economy, avoid heavy
partisanship in using state resources and patronage and relieve
economic pressure on the common man. Above all, it needs to adopt
a more up-front approach in dealing with terrorism and extremism
through active cooperation with political and societal groups and the
military.
If the present policies persist, the PML-N will move from crisis to
crisis and political uncertainty will continue to haunt the civilian
order.
61
Aamir Mahar
62
Aamir Mahar
Third, the army is now playing the key role in countering
terrorism and strengthening internal security. This has increased the
responsibilities of the military because the civilian administration
and law enforcing agencies do not have enough capacity to deal with
extremist and terrorist groups. Therefore, there is a heavy reliance on
the army, the air-force and the paramilitary forces for dealing with
the current terrorism threat.
Fourth, the security of Pakistan’s nuclear program is the
responsibility of the army. It also makes a major contribution to
making of Pakistan’s security and foreign policy. Its major
contribution is towards Pakistan’s relations with India, Afghanistan,
the United States, the nuclear policy and internal security. The
opinions of the Air Force, the Navy and the ISI are sought on these
issues.
Fifth, the Pakistan military has become an important player in
Pakistan’s economy. It manages its commercial and business activity
through five welfare foundations and some activity is directly
managed by the military. Other business and commercial activities
include real estate business, transport, construction and engineering
work, shopping centers, universities, a bank, and several other
commercial undertakings. This has increased the clout of the military
in Pakistani state system and society.
All these factors have given much importance to the military in
Pakistan. A good number of civilians, especially political leaders,
attempt to cultivate senior army officers. However, as a professional
organization, the officers maintain a distance from politicians and
other activists.
63
Aamir Mahar
Given the importance of the military as a whole and the Army in
particular, it is not surprising that Pakistani media gives regular
coverage to official activities of Army Chief General Raheel Sharif.
It was a headline story in Pakistani media when the Inter-Services
Public Relations, the military’s media organization, announced on
January 25, 2016 that the Army Chief would not neither seek nor
accept an extension in service.
General Raheel Sharif will complete his three term of office on
November 28, 2016. Why the statement regarding not seeking an
extension of service was issued so much ahead of time? There is an
intriguing politics at the back of this statement, initiated by Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Nawaz Sharif had learnt from the “Dharna” by the PTI (August-
December 2014) that he needs to keep good terms with the Army
Chief to secure his five year term that gets targeted by the opposition
from time to time. The Prime Minister is conceding a lot of political
and decision-making space to the Army Chief rather than the Army
Chief snatching powers from him. This has created the impression
of good relations between the two. In reality, the Army Chief has to
press hard through direct interaction with the PM and through the
Provincial Apex Committees for effective and sustained
implementation of the National Action Plan. The civilian
government support is tainted by its political and electoral interests
which dilutes its interest in implementation of the National Action
Plan in a consistent manner.
In December 2015, the circles close to Nawaz Sharif disclosed that
he had offered an extension of service to Army Chief so well ahead
of the end of his term of office, mainly to “tame” him. A section of
64
Aamir Mahar
the media disclosed this information which started a speculative
debate on if the Army Chief should be given extension.
The idea of the Army Chief and the Prime Minister coming close
to each other gained strength when the Army Chief accompanied the
Prime Minister in his visit to Saudi Arabia and Iran (January18-19).
This was very unusual that the Army Chief would be part of the
Prime Minister’s entourage in his foreign trip. The PMLN circles
began to project this visit as a unanimity of views between the two
on the current security issues.
The Army Chief asserted his autonomy by issuing the statement
for not seeking extension of service. This ended the controversy
regarding the extension issue and focused attention again on what
the civilian governments were doing for implementation of the
National Action Plan. The Army Chief is expected to maintain
professional relationship with the Prime Minister and the civilian
government while maintaining his autonomy.
Three other developments are now building pressure on the
Prime Minister. The federal minister for planning and development,
Ahsan Iqbal, has picked up controversy with the provincial
governments of K-P and Sindh on the energy and industrial projects
relating to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The other
controversy relates to the interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali’s
blistering attack on the leader of opposition, Syed Khurshid Shah.
This has totally spoiled the relationship between the PMLN and the
PPP. Third, the PIA employee strike and its arrogant handling by the
federal government has created another challenge for Nawaz Sharif
65
Aamir Mahar
These developments have complicated political management for
the Prime Minister and undermined his capacity to assert civilian
primacy.
66
Aamir Mahar
Playing the Diplomatic Card Smoothly
(January 11, 2016)
67
Aamir Mahar
regional eminence. We are under a great deal of pressure from Saudi
Arabia to fully support it in its conflict with Iran.
The prospects for removing current tensions between India and
Pakistan were brightened through quick diplomatic footwork by the
two countries, starting with the brief informal meeting of the two
prime ministers on the sidelines of the international environment
conference in Paris on November 30, 2015. The full confirmation of
the changed diplomatic environment between the two countries
came when India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, visited Lahore
on December 25. However, the Pathankot attack has raised a critical
question of who has the veto power over the relationship between
Pakistan and India. Is it the hardline, violent religious groups or is it
the governments of the two countries? It is beyond the scope of this
article to critically examine whether the attack was undertaken by a
militant Pakistani group or whether it was contrived by a hardline
Indian entity with the objective of disrupting the planned talks. If
these talks get disrupted, then these so-called non-state entities will
have succeeded in imposing their policy choices on both
governments. The Indian government may be tempted to strengthen
itself domestically by walking away from the talks. This may give it
some immediate domestic gains, but in the long run, India will hurt
itself. This would amount to making India’s Pakistan policy a
hostage to these extremist groups.
The Pathankot episode should also be a matter of concern for
Pakistan. India has blamed one Pakistani militant group for the
incident, and one Kashmiri group, based partly in Azad Kashmir,
has claimed responsibility. If it is verified that a Pakistan-based group
staged the attack, the country’s civilian and military authorities
should take this very seriously. If these groups can challenge the
68
Aamir Mahar
Pakistani state in one area of policy, they can one day take it on in
other areas too, including domestic policies and actions. This will
make Pakistan a dysfunctional state. It will become a multi-authority
state, with each power centre asserting itself in different territorial
units or dictating its terms to the faltering state government. The long
history of hostility and conflict between Pakistan and India cannot
be used as a pretext by Pakistani militant groups to disrupt the
country’s foreign policy. The government and political parties should
not compromise with these groups in order to win their votes. Long-
term interests call for the restoration of the primacy of the Pakistani
state and enforcement of a constitutional political order in a
democratic and tolerant context. This is not possible until hardline
religious and violent groups are brought under the control of the
state.
The other issue that challenges the political and diplomatic skills of
the Pakistani leadership is to avoid getting embroiled in the Saudi-
Iran conflict. Pakistan’s official stance has Saudi leanings, but avoids
a complete identification with Saudi Arabia. The Saudi leadership is
applying strong diplomatic pressure on Pakistan for seeking its full
support. Long-term Pakistani interests demand a well-formulated
non-partisan disposition on the Saudi-Iran dispute. We also need to
avoid any statement that directly or indirectly reflects negatively on
Iran. We need to pursue the Saudi-sponsored 34-nation military
alliance with caution because there is a lot of ambiguity about its
aims and objectives, organisational structure and the ways and
means by which military cooperation can be brought about between
such a diverse array of countries. The command structure of military
and intelligence systems under this alliance is not yet clear.
69
Aamir Mahar
The current Saudi-Iran conflict is a struggle for power in the region.
It is also shaped by Iran’s continued radical revolutionary zeal and
Saudi Arabia’s growing internal insecurities since the beginning of
the Arab Spring in 2011. Therefore, there is no reason for Pakistan to
become directly involved in this conflict. Pakistan should advise
restraint to both countries and suggest bilateral dialogue for defusing
the conflict.
Pakistan should be working towards bringing down tensions on our
borders and in the region so that it is able to pay more attention to
dealing with internal political, economic and security issues.
Pakistan needs to control internal violence and terrorism and tame
the extremist organisations that employ religious discourse and
jargon to justify violence. Pakistan must also work towards reducing
its economic dependence on external sources by addressing the
energy crisis, faltering industrial growth, a troubled agriculture
sector, and increased poverty and underdevelopment. Pakistan’s
salvation lies in seeking peace in and around it and putting its
economic and political house in order.
70
Aamir Mahar
Terrorism: Domestic and Global Dimensions
(November 30, 2015)
71
Aamir Mahar
agendas, by identifying with such extremist groups or by floating
their own groups.
Extremism and terrorism have become far more complex than
domestic crime and violence. Therefore, it requires capacity-building
by the state to track these groups and the use of strong and coercive
methods to effectively deal with them. The state must demonstrate
through tough actions that terrorist groups cannot get away scot-free
after resorting to violence. A concerted and holistic approach is
needed to cope with extremism and terrorism, which includes
military and non-military or non-coercive methods. International
cooperation is needed for exchanging information on extremism and
terrorism, building state capacity to control criminal and terrorist
activity, curtailing the movement of personnel and funding across the
territorial boundaries of states. These efforts come in conflict with
the current notion of globalisation that calls for greater movement of
goods, services, investment and trade across state frontiers and
geographical divides. The fruits of globalisation cannot be enjoyed by
the states that suffer from extremist and violent activity. Therefore,
extremism and terrorism become major obstacles to improving state
economy and the quality of life for the common people which, in
turn, contributes in the alienation of people from state institutions
and processes.
The French president and his government acted swiftly and
without reservations in dealing with the post-attack situation. The
guiding principle was that no individual and group can challenge the
authority of the state and that it is the primary responsibility of the
state to protect the life and property of the people. This approach
needs to be compared with the response of the civilian government in
Pakistan, which pursues an ambiguous approach towards extremist
72
Aamir Mahar
and terrorist groups. The military also suffered from this dilemma in
the past. However, it has come to the conclusion that such groups
are a threat to state survival. However, the PML-N and its allies
derive electoral support from right-wing and religious groups, which
have sympathy for militancy. The exigencies of electoral politics
make it difficult for Pakistan’s federal government to articulate a
unity of mind and action on extremism and militancy. It was ironic
that the joint statement issued after the end of the All-Parties
Conference on terrorism in September 2013, described the Pakistani
Taliban as a “stakeholder” in the Pakistani state and society.
Another interesting facet of terrorism in Paris is that the
European and North American states adopted a unified and
determined disposition for eliminating terrorism. There was no
ambiguity in their view of how to cope with extremist and terrorist
activity. Compare this with the responses of Muslim states to
religious extremism and terrorism. Their state and dynastic rivalries
and religious preferences influence their disposition towards
extremist groups. For example, some conservative Arab states
support hardline religious groups in their quest to dislodge the
Bashar-al-Assad government in Syria. The support of and opposition
to the Muslim Brotherhood movement has been a point of
contention in the Middle East. Each state acts more on the basis of
its dynastic and state exigencies rather than adopting a non-
ambiguous and determined policy to eliminate extremist and militant
groups.
There is a downside to the policies of the European and North
American states in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris.
Though the French government and the US president argued that
terrorism was an act of a few and that it could not be linked to Islam
73
Aamir Mahar
or Muslims as a whole, who oppose such violence, at the societal
level, there were numerous instances in these countries of a display
of hatred against local Muslims. Even in New York City, Muslim
men and women were subjected to what The New York Times
described as “Islamophobic taunts” and physical assaults. The
European states and the US must strictly discourage the negative
attitude of their societies towards Muslims. These governments and
leaders must engage with local Muslim communities in their
respective countries. It is important to understand why a good
number of Muslims feel marginalised in these societies and complain
about non-availability of equitable opportunities for their cultural
and religious expression. The more there are opportunities for them
to enter the national mainstream, the more isolated becomes the
small fraction of their population that subscribes to extremism and
violent methods.
74
Aamir Mahar
Aamir Mahar
75