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Supply Chain Segmentation - an approach to develop your business
case
Forward
‘One size does not fit all’; this has long been recognized by supply chain
lectures, consultants, and practitioners. In an increasingly competitive
environment the need for supply chain segmentation is critical to develop
winning supply chain strategies that successfully balance the cost of
inventory and the cost of service.
Extensive documentation is available regarding the concept and principles of
supply chain segmentation; however little information has been published
regarding a specific approach, the financial justification, and measurement
of supply chain performance improvements of segmentation strategies. This
site presents a practical 5 step approach to develop the business case for
your supply chain segmentation initiative and successfully balance inventory
~ and service cost
The presented approach consists of the following key steps;
1, Select segmentation category
2. Develop and visualize segmentation
3. Determine baseline performance of inventory cost and service cost
4. Develop segmentation strategies
5. Model baseline performance vs. strategies to determine financial
justification
For more information or support with developing your supply chain strategy
please contact: info@supplychainsegmentation.com
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1. Select segmentation category
Forward Home
Supply chain segmentation design is generally influenced by four key
categories; product, demand, supply, and the organizational environment.
Below figure presents a conceptual model of these four segmentation
categories.
Organizational
Environment
Examples of product factors include; product life cycle, product group within the
portfolio, quality expectations, and product features (such as shelf-life,
physical appearance - e.g, gasses vs. bulk materials). For example customer
replenishment cycles for products with short shelf-lives are typically shorter
compared to products with longer shelf-lives. These shorter replenishment
cycles may require unique order fulfilment and transportation policies.
Segmentation factors on the supply side include; raw material types (e.
commodities vs. specialised materials), lead-times, and production flexibility.
For example production environments with a high level of flexibility and short
lead-times for raw materials are more appropriate for a make-to-stock
environment. Also, due to the supply certainty of commodities (i.e. you can buy
them from many suppliers and typically there is no market shortage), low
inventory policies are typically less risky for commodity materials compared to
specialised products,
Demand factors include; demand volatility, demand volume, and service
‘expectations. For example products with high demand volume and low demand
variability may be best replenished with regression techniques as apposed to
replenishment based and demand planning routines (i.e. sales forecast).
Environmental factors include; geographical location, infrastructure, transport
mode availability, customs, tax and goverment policies, etc. For example tax
and government policies are important decision criteria to select the location of
new manufacturing sites. Infrastructure and available mode of transport will
impact a distribution centre network.
For a broader discussion on supply chain segmentation categories refer to
http://www. clearpepper.com/supplychain/Managing%20Diversity%20through%20Supply%20Chain%20Set
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Segmentation based on product, supply and environmental factors is typically
quite intuitive. For example it would not require much analysis to justify that in
a diverse product portfolio, short self life items require unique replenishment
and inventory policies to ensure product freshness and minimize obsolescence
of aged products. However developing segmented supply chain strategies
based on product demand appears to be much more challenging for
organizations. Typically demand for individual items within a product portfolio
varies widely. Some high volume products have a constant demand and other
products experience low volume demand that fluctuates significantly. When
both demand volume and demand variability are taken into account for each
SKU and / or customer the segmentation effort becomes less intuitive and
highly analytic. Below describes a practical approach to develop the business
case for supply chain segmentation based on these demand factors. That is, it
will make an effort to answer the trade-off between inventory and service
levels based on demand volume and variability.
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Develop and visualize segmentation - www
2. Develop and visualize segmentation
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‘After selecting the segmentation category (demand factors) you have to
develop a ‘current state’ segmentation diagram for your product or
customer portfolio. The segmentation diagram consists of a scatter plot
with the demand volume on the X-axis and a measure of the demand
volume variability on the Y-axis. Dependent on your objectives you can
develop a single diagram for your total product portfolio or separate
scatter plots for each customer (key) account. If you are in the early
stages of your supply chain segmentation initiative it is recommended you
start with gaining insights and developing strategies for your total
product portfolio. The developed strategies for the total product portfolio
can be validated and adjusted based on customer account analysis in a
next step.
Demand volume is determined as the total volume for the period of
analysis. The period of analysis depends on your customer order pattern;
however you want to ensure your period of analysis is a good
representation of your actual demand variation (e.g. includes your typical
seasonality).
There are different ways to present the demand variability, Most research
and documents propose the standard deviation as the measure of
variability, The standard deviation is a statistical measure of the spread
of a data population. The limitation of the standard deviation for our
purpose is that within a high volume versatile product portfolio the
standard deviation is not a useful measure to compare (relative) variation
between different SKU's. For example a SKU (A) with a weekly average
volume of 2000 units and a standard deviation of 500 is arguably more
volatile then a SKU (B) with an average weekly volume of 5000 units and
a standard deviation of 700. (Despite the standard deviation of SKU
B being higher). To overcome this issue, I propose to use the coefficient
of variation (CV). The coefficient of variation allows you to compare
variation of each SKU as a ratio or percentage. Refer to the following link
for more details on the CV
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_variation
Coefficient of Variation is defined as:
cv
BIO
Where;
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g = standard deviation ot demana
= mean of demand
Both the standard deviation and mean can easily be calculated in MS-
Excel using the following formula functions respectively; STDEV,
AVERAGE.
The time scale to determine your standard deviation and mean depends
‘on your order cycle. As a rule of thump the scale should be at least as
long as your typical order replenishment cycle. For example if your typical
customer places an order on Monday and Thursday, a weekly variability is
probably sufficient. If your customers order only once or twice a month
you may want to choose a monthly variability. You may want to do some
tests to select the optimal time scale. If your selected time scale is too
short your results will inherent higher variations that belong to your order
cycle
Below depicts a sample of your data file layout based on the chosen time
scale and the list of SKU’s in your portfolio. Note that the matrix layout
has the SKU’s listed in the rows and the columns representing calendar
weeks. The matrix is filled out with the demand volumes for each SKU /
week.
After the volume and volatility are determined for each SKU a scatter
diagram can be created in MS-Excel as shown below.
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Finally the scatter diagram is divided in four quadrants. There are no rules
regarding the split between quadrants. One approach is to split low and
high variability at 100%, however this does not provide a split for low vs.
high volume yet. Often trial and error is the best approach to find a
desired split. The 80/20 rule can be used as a starting point. That is;
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by quadrant A and D. Next move the vertical line until and 80% of the
portfolio volume is represented by quadrant A and B. Per definition this
approach will result is an equal volume share for quadrant 8 and D.
After finding the desired split the portfolio will be divided in four
quadrants with the following generic characteristics:
Quadrant A: high volume, low variability
SKU’s
This quadrant usually includes the core products of a company's portfolio.
These are your products that turn over very quickly. Typically the ability to
forecast demand is high and as a result service levels are optimized
Profit share is proportionally higher then the volume share (i.e. these are
your highly profitable products).
Quadrant B: low volume, low vai
SKU’s
This quadrant represents your average products. Typically the number of
SKU's in this quadrant is high compared to other quadrants. These are not
your top sellers but still deliver a relative high volume and profit due to
the number of SKU's. Products at the end of their life cycle could move
from quadrant 8 to quadrant C and eventually by identified for deletion.
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Quadrant C: low volume, high variability
SKU’s
This is the tail of your product portfolio. These are the products with low
volumes and high variability. The margin contribution per SKU is typically
lowest in this quadrant. This quadrant represent the SKU's that should be
reviewed regularly for portfolio rationalization.
Quadrant D: high volume, high variability
SKU’s
These are the products that create the highest disruption to your supply
chain operations. High demand variability often results in inaccurate
forecasts, followed by emergency orders to avoid out of stocks. These
products usually create the biggest challenge in relation to service levels.
(Le. customers expect high service levels, however due to the demand
variability the cost to deliver these service levels is typically high)
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