Fehmer-Leckrone-Marcus 1

Ms. Dewey
FST 10B
16 March 2016

Carnival Project

Introduction:

Think about it: kids are growing up faster than ever these days. Nobody wants to play

dinky “balloon pop” or “knock down the milk jugs” games anymore. What kids these days want

are fun games for their ever-changing world. Games that don’t involve skill: nobody wants to

play a game that only an olympic athlete could hope to best. In one path of thought, modern-day

television and other forms of video entertainment can be linked to their lust for bigger and better

games. One example is the idea that was originally brought forth by George Romero-the zombie

apocalypse. Hordes of the undead filling the streets, and a main protagonist saving the day (or

better yet, the world). What comes next may come as a bit of a shock; what if, coming to a

carnival, one sees a game? Not just any game, though. What if it was one that not only appeals to

players of this type, but is also based on sheer luck? Presenting the one and only “Escape

Warren; Zombie Survival”. A card’s turn and a spinner away from huge amounts of fun and

some nice prizes for a small price.

Description, Rules & Directions:

This game costs $2 to play. The game begins with 20 cards. Shuffle the cards (no

peeking!) and lay them out in any sort of formation, so long as no cards are misplaced or stacked

(5x4 is recommended). 16 have zombies (green) painted on while the other four have humans

(black) painted on. If you pick a zombie card on the first try you can set it off to the side and try

again (do NOT place it back into the deck). If you pick another zombie, then the game is over,

and you may return both cards to the deck and shuffle them. If you pick a human card on the first

or second go, you move on to the next part of the game.

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Figure 1. The Cards.

Figure 1 shows a zombie card (green) and a human card (black). All cards have black

backgrounds to eliminate any bias that might come about due to the lighting of the room and the

transparency of the cards.

The next part involves a spinner with 16 spaces. 10 of the spaces are zombies, if you land

on them you lose. 4 spaces are bikes, if landed on you can escape the zombies and you win the

small prize of $5. The final 2 spaces are cars, If landed on you can escape very quickly and you

win the large prize of $10.

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Figure 2. The Spinner

Figure 2. shows the spinner with the zombie, bike, and car options. Place the arrow on

any space and flick it once. Note that the arrow of the spinner MUST MAKE 2 FULL

REVOLUTIONS around the circle. If it does not, you have one more try from the original space.

After that, if the spinner doesn’t make 2 full revolutions, you lose automatically.

Theoretical Probability:
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16 March 2016

The sample space of the game is {H-LP, H-SP, H-NP, HH-LP, HH-SP, HH-NP, Not H-

Not HH}. Here is a key: H=human (1st try), HH=human (2nd try), LP=large prize, SP=small

prize, NP=no prize. Using a tree diagram the probabilities of each outcome can be found.

LP

0.125
SP
H 0.25
0.2 LP
0.625 NP
0.125
HH 0.25
SP
0.8
0.2105
Not H 0.625 NP

0.7895
Not HH

Figure 3. Tree Diagram.

Figure 3 shows a tree diagram of the game. This shows the probability of each event

happening.

Table 1. Probabilities of net changes of player money

$ 8 3 -2

P($) 0.04605 0.0921 0.86185

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16 March 2016

Calculating the expected value can show how much the operator expects the game to

make per play. The possible outcomes that result in a player yield of eight dollars occur 1/8 of

the time on the spinner, and there is a 7/19 chance of continuing to the second round, meaning

the chances of getting a car on the spinner and receiving the ten dollar prize are 7/152. The

possible outcomes that result in a player yield of three dollars occur 1/4 of the time on the

spinner, with the same 7/19 chance of reaching the spinner in the first place, leading to the

chances of getting the bike on the spinner and receiving the four dollar prize being 14/152.

Because all the possible outcomes have to have probabilities adding up to one, that chances of

losing, and the player having a net change of -2 dollars, are (152 -(7+14))/152, or 131/152.

8(0.04605) + 3(0.0921) +-2(0.86185))=-1.079

Figure 4. Expected value calculation.

The expected value equation says that every time someone plays the game, they are expected to

lose about a dollar and eight cents.

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FST 10B
16 March 2016

Relative Frequencies:

Figure 5. Results of playing the game

The first simulation involved actually playing the game fifty times. The relative

frequency for getting a car was 0.06, the relative frequency of getting a bike 0.12, and the

relative frequency of losing was 0.82. The expected value of these runs was -0.8, a good twenty

cents less than the expected value based on theoretical probabilities.

Part 2

Figure 6. Results of 500 trial simulation

This next simulation was calculated on a TI nspire calculator. The relative frequency for

getting a car was 0.042, the relative frequency for getting a bike 0.106, and the relative frequency

for losing is 0.825. The expected value of this simulation was -1.05, very close to the expected

value based on theoretical probabilities.

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16 March 2016

Figure 7. Results of 5000 trial simulation

The final simulation was a 5000 trial simulation done in a Java program (See appendix

for program). The\ relative frequency for getting a car was 0.0488, the relative frequency for

receiving a bike 0.0962, and the relative frequency of losing was 0.855. The value found for this

simulation was 1.031, about five cents away from the expected value found based off of

theoretical probability.

Summary:

To wrap things up, this game is a great investment that could be made into the greatest

carnival addition known to the modern world. This is one of the newest, hippest ideas for a game

based on total luck. It brings joy and excitement to people of all ages by either recalling the

childhood of an old horror fan or adding to the growing mind of a child. Imagine playing the

game as a child, imagining everything as it could happen while the game plays out. Picking a

zombie, and imagining a narrow escape; winning a large prize, then finding a car and driving off

into the sunset. This game would also be an excellent money-maker for this fundraiser and for
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any other carnival, as it has a high expected value. In fact, in the long run, it’s expected to make

an average of $1.08 (through the eyes of the person running the game, not the player) per game.

If 5000 people played the game daily, one could expect to make about $5500 a day!

The theoretical values, when matched up with the dummy trials ran, are very similar.

Thanks to the Law of Large Numbers, (as number of trials increases, the simulated outcome

approaches the theoretical outcome closer and closer) it is known that the most accurate

simulation ran was the 5000 trial simulation. The theoretical expected value for this experiment

is -1.079, while the simulation’s expected value came to -1.0789. One can see how close these

numbers are to one another. In the 500 trial simulation, the expected value came to be about -

$1.05, a close -$0.03 cents away from the theoretical probability. In the 50 trial simulation, the

expected value came to be -$0.80, which was about -$0.28 off of the theoretical probability.

Thus, it can be concluded that the simulations’ expected values matched up very nicely to the

theoretical expected value-all except the 50 trial simulation.

The roles in the creation of this game itself and the creation of the simulations; however,

the workload was still distributed evenly. The writing of the report was an even distribution of

work as well, with Mr. Leckrone working on the summaries of each simulation, Mr. Fehmer

working on theoretical and expected value analysis, and Mr. Marcus working on the game’s

introduction, rules, and summary. Mr. Leckrone handled the 5000 trial Java simulation, along

with the 50 trial simulation and the crafting of the spinner. He also ran some preliminary math

and helped with the 500 trial simulation. Mr. Fehmer ran the 500 trial simulation, helped with

preliminary math, and completed the conditional probabilities for the theoretical probability. Mr.

Marcus created and painted the cards, ran preliminary math, and helped with conditional

probability. He also edited and formatted the write-up.

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FST 10B
16 March 2016

Appendix

Complete Java program

import TerminalIO.AlternateReader;
import java.text.DecimalFormat;
class fst
{
public static void main(String args[])
{
DecimalFormat DecimalFormat = new DecimalFormat("0.0000");
double counter1, counter2, spinner;
double trials;
double bikes = 0;
double cars = 0;
double fails = 0;
double bikecash = 0;
double carcash = 0;
double price = 0;
AlternateReader AlternateReader = new AlternateReader();
System.out.println("How many trials would you like to run?");
trials = AlternateReader.readDouble();
System.out.println("How much does each play cost?");
price = AlternateReader.readDouble();
System.out.println("How much is each bike worth?");
bikecash = AlternateReader.readDouble();
System.out.println("How much is each car worth?");
carcash = AlternateReader.readDouble();
double expectedValue = ((((131.0/152.0) * (price))) + ((7.0/152.0) * (-1 * (carcash -
price))) + ((14.0/152.0) * (-1 * (bikecash - price))));
for(int n = 1; n<=trials; n++)
{
counter1 = ((int)(20 * Math.random() + 1));
counter2 = ((int)(19 * Math.random() + 1));
if (counter1 == 1 | counter1 == 2 | counter1 == 3 | counter1 == 4 | counter2 == 1 |
counter2 == 2 | counter2 == 3 | counter2 == 4)
{
spinner = ((int)(16 * Math.random() + 1));
if (spinner == 1 | spinner == 2)
{
cars++;
}
else if (spinner == 3 | spinner == 4 | spinner == 5 | spinner == 6)
{
bikes++;
}
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16 March 2016

else fails++;
}
else fails++;
}
double actualValue = ((((fails/trials) * (price))) + ((cars/trials) * (-1 * (carcash - price))) +
((bikes/trials) * (-1.0 * (bikecash - price))));
System.out.println("Cars: " + cars + " Bikes: " + bikes + " Fails: " + fails);
System.out.println("Players have a 4/20 chance of getting to the second round on their first
selection.\nThey have a 4/19 chance of getting to the second round on their second
selection.\nThey have a 1/8 chance of getting a car in the second round.\nThey have a 1/4 chance
of getting a bike in the second round.");
System.out.println("The theoretical probability of getting to round two is 1/5 + (4/5)*(4/19),\nor
7/19.\nThis means you have a 7/152 chance of getting a car and a 14/152 chance of\ngetting a
bike, with a 131/152 chance of losing.");
System.out.println("Your expected value is " + DecimalFormat.format(expectedValue));
System.out.println("Your actual value is " + DecimalFormat.format(actualValue));
System.out.println("In this simulation, each play cost $" + price + ". \nYou gained $" + trials *
price + " for plays alone. \nYou lost $" + cars * carcash + " from cars. \nYou lost $" + bikes *
bikecash + " from bikes. \nYour net change was $" + ((trials * price) - (cars * carcash) - (bikes *
bikecash)) + ".");
}
}