Professional Documents
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Light Electricals
Quarterly
QUARTERLY UPDATE
In this inaugural edition of Light Electricals, we highlight key takeaways from Bhargav Buddhadev
our Light electrical goods dealer checks quarterly. Dealers checks in April and Tel: +91 22 3043 3252
May suggest strong ~25% YoY value growth in Electronics in primarily led by bhargavbuddhadev@ambitcapital.com
UPS/Inverters. Within Electricals, fans are witnessing a growth after two years
of decline. HT and LT Cables yet again witnessed a decline of ~2-3% YoY.
Switchgears, lightings and domestic appliances continue to grow in the range
of 8-15% YoY in value terms. We also analyze Bajaj Electricals’ (Bajaj) strategy Bajaj Electricals BUY
with respect to Morphy Richards (Morphy), making latter a successful brand Bloomberg Code: BJE IN
(30% sales CAGR over FY04-13 compared to industry growth of ~20%) in CMP (`): 175
India. Premium brand positioning, offering limited variants compared to in UK
and sensible pricing is the reason for Morphy’s success in India. TP (`): 251
Mcap (` bn/US$ mn): 17/0.29
Dealers highlight strong sales growth: Dealer checks suggest strong ~25% YoY
value growth in Electronics primarily led by UPS/Inverters. South India is leading the 3M ADV (` mn/US$ mn): 16/0.3
growth with ~23% and ~40% YoY growth in stabilizers and UPS/Inverters respectively.
Within Electricals, fans are witnessing a growth after a year of decline; fans posted 25-
28% YoY value growth. Non-South led the growth with a 30-35% YoY growth given Havells India BUY
harsh summer and delivery of new residential units. Premium category fans are driving Bloomberg Code: HAVL IN
a large part of this growth with their share increasing to ~55% compared to 25% five CMP (`): 673
years back. HT and LT Cables which is the largest product category within Electricals
yet again witnessed a value decline of ~2-3% YoY given 6% YoY decline in copper TP (`): 754
prices in rupee terms. Switchgears, lightings and domestic appliances continue to grow Mcap (` bn/US$ bn): 84/1.42
in the range of 8-15% YoY in value terms. Bajaj has tied up with Big Bazaar in Q1 to 3M ADV (` mn/US$ mn): 302/5.1
aggressively market domestic appliances. Havells has found limited success in
appliances primarily due to its aggressive pricing.
V-Guard BUY
Stable copper prices to boost sequential EBITDA margin for all companies:
Since 31st March 2013, Copper prices have remained flat on a rupee/tonne basis. Bloomberg Code: VGRD IN
Consequently companies this time around will not be reporting any inventory write CMP (`): 451
downs in Q1. In the last quarter EBITDA margin had declined by ~300 bps YoY on an
TP (`): 591
average for companies under our coverage on account of a 7% fall in copper prices
between 1st Jan and 31st March. This EBITDA margin reduction was primarily led by a Mcap (` bn/US$ bn): 13/0.23
reduction in gross margins which declined by ~250bps YoY due to fall in copper prices 3M ADV (` mn/US$ mn): 47/0.8
in March which also led to inventory write downs.
Bajaj remains our top pick. Our top pick in the sector is Bajaj, followed by V-Guard
and Havells. This is because we expect the valuation for the company to re-rate on the
back of the E&P business turning around. Currently the consumer business trades at Stock performance (%) – an inspiring
~40% discount compared to Havells’ consumer business despite 4.2% points higher performance in the last 12 months
earnings and EBITDA CAGR over FY13-15 and higher pre tax ROCE (91% for Bajaj’s 1M 3M 12M YTD
consumer business in FY13 and FY14 compared to 56% for Havells). We have valued
V-Guard 1.2 0 93.3 (11)
the consumer business at `295 per share which implies a multiple of 18.8x. We also
like V-Guard for its strong franchise in South India. We expect the company to grow at Bajaj 3 0 (9) (17)
an earnings CAGR of 35% over FY13-15. Our DCF value is at `591 per share which Havells 3 17 25 10
implies a P/E of 21.6x. The implied target multiple for V-Guard is higher than Bajaj
Sensex (6) (1.2) 9.0 (5.1)
because V-Guard is growing at virtually double the pace of Bajaj given its small base
and abysmally low market share in Non-South markets which are 3x compared to the Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
market in South.
Successful strategies: Bajaj with Morphy Richards: In this edition on Light
Electricals we analyze the key factors that led to the successful re-launch of Morphy in
India. Despite Bajaj and Morphy being present in the same product category they
complement each other very well. This is because the positioning of both the brands is
very different. Whilst Morphy is positioned as a premium brand, Bajaj is positioned as
a mass brand. Secondly the product variants and the pricing of Morphy’s products in
India are different compared to in UK. Whilst in India the number of variants is lower
(compared to in UK), the difference between the minimum and the maximum price
between a lower and a premium product in the same category is lower in India. This is
because people in India do not like more variants as they get confused. Further if the
pricing gap between the lower and the superior category is high then they prefer to
choose the lower variant over the premium.
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit
Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to disclaimer section on the last page for further important disclaimer.
Light Electricals - Quarterly
Dealer Survey
Exhibit 1: Key findings of the dealer survey
% of
Revenue % of Ranking
Market industry
Growth in Unorganised industry in %
Product size Organized sales in Other comments
April and May share sales in organised share
(` bn) share Non-
(YoY) South market
South
Electronics
Stabilizers 21 18-20% 50% 50% 40% 60% V-Guard 25% V-Guard sells products at a premium of 7-
10%, V-Guard share in South is ~60%
23% in South Capri 9%
17% in Non
Premiere 7%
South
UPS/Inverters 80 30-35% 90% 10% 20% 80% Luminous 23% 60% of the cost is battery. Life is 8-9 years. If
power deficit is 9-10 hours then the utility of
40% in South Microtech 12%
the product is lost
30% in Non
Sukam 11%
South
V-Guard 1%
Electricals
PVC Wires 70 12-15% 60% 40% Polycab 30% Industry enjoys pricing power, organised
players sell at a premium of 3-5%, make EBIT
15-18% in
Finolex 27% margins of 7-10% and ROCE of ~15%
South
10-12% in Non
Havells 14%
South
V-Guard 7%
LT and HT Value growth is negative because copper
100 Minus 2-3% 60% 40% Polycab 31%
Cables prices have declined by 6% YoY in rupee
Minus 2-3% in terms. Consequently companies have
KEI 18%
South reduced finished goods prices as it is a
Minus 3-5% in commodity market. Volume growth is also
Havells 12%
Non South benign at 3-5% YoY
Domestic Pumps 20 4-5% 45% 55% 35% 65% Crompton 40% Pumps sales were impacted as water wells
had dried up. In April and May only bore
wells were selling. If monsoons are good then
sales will pick up
Texmo 21%
CRI 18%
Vguard 15%
Fans 50 25-28% 70% 30% 40% 60% Crompton 28% A harsh summer and delivery of new
30-35% in Non residential stocks has led to volume growth of
Usha 21%
South ~25% YoY. Also Prices have increased by ~5-
25-30% in 7%. Share of premium fan (pricing is 5-8%
Havells 14%
South higher compared to economy) is rising to
V-Guard 2% ~55% compared to 25% five years back
Organized players sell at 25% premium to
Electric water 10-12% 55% 44% 35% 65% Racold 28%
12 unorganized players. V-Guard is increasing
heaters market share.
Bajaj 20%
Venus 19%
V-Guard 12%
Solar water 20-25% 65% 35% 40% 60% Emmnee 12% Main customers are hotels, schools, Villas.
6.5
heaters Cost of geyser is `10,000 per unit more than
Tata BP 9% Electric Water heater. However, 30% subsidy
is given by the government which makes the
Anu Solar 9%
pay back less that 2 years
V-Guard 6%
Switchgears
Domestic
12-15% 55% 45% 30% 70% Havells 28% Havells is very strong in this segment as the
switchgear 16
same is driven by wholesalers and retail
Legrand 25% distributors
Scheider 16%
% of
Revenue % of Ranking
Market industry
Growth in Unorganized industry in %
Product size Organized sales in Other comments
April and May share sales in organised share
(` bn) share Non-
(YoY) South market
South
Industrial Slowdown in industrial capex has impacted
30 8-10% 70% 30% 30% 70% L&T 15%
switchgear the growth in this segment. This is also
Schneider 13% reflected in the weak IIP data
Siemens 12%
ABB 10%
Havells 6%
Osram 9%
Luminaries 20 12-15% 65% 35% 35% 65% Philips 23% High-end market with the main customers
being hoteliers, malls and HNIs. Earlier
Bajaj 17% luminaries were imported from China, but
now domestic players are gaining share.
Crompton 13% Bajaj has become agressive and is focussing
more on consumer luminaries (premium
Havells 12%
category)
Wipro 9%
Domestic appliances
50 15-20% 65% 35% 35% 65% Philips 35% Bajaj has tied up with Big Bazaar to
aggressively market domestic appliances. It is
Bajaj 25% also looking at selling pressure cookers in
Non South region where TTK is weak. Havells
has found limited success primarily due to its
aggressive pricing
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research, * represents average revenue growth of V-Guard, Havells standalone and Bajaj Non E&P
Strong sales growth: Dealers suggest strong ~25% YoY value growth in
Electronics primarily led by UPS/Inverters. South India is leading the growth with
~23% and ~40% YoY growth in stabilizers and UPS/Inverters respectively. Within
Electricals, fans are witnessing a growth after two years of decline; fans posted 25-
28% YoY value growth. Non South led the growth with a 30-35% YoY growth
given harsh summer and delivery of new residential stocks. Premium category fans
are driving a large part of this growth with their share increasing to ~55%
compared to 25% five years back. HT and LT Cables which is the largest product
category within Electricals yet again witnessed a decline of ~2-3% YoY given 6%
YoY decline in copper prices in rupee terms and sub dued volume growth of 3-5%
YoY. Switchgears, lightings and domestic appliances continue to grow in the range
of 8-15% YoY in value terms. Bajaj has tied up with Big Bazaar in Q1 to
aggressively market domestic appliances. It is also looking at selling pressure
cookers in Non South region aggressively in FY14 (TTK the leader is weak in Non
South). Havells has found limited success in appliances primarily due to its
aggressive pricing. In some products its pricing is similar to Philips which is an
industry leader.
Market share changes in April and May on a YoY basis: In Stabilizers, UPS
and Inverters, V-Guard continued to gain market share in Non South given limited
competition (Havells, Bajaj, Crompton have limited presence in this segment).
Advertisement in the Indian Premiere League (popular cricket tournament in India)
which was held in April’13 has helped V-Guard immensely. Note that in the last
five years it has increased its revenue share in Non South from 5% in FY08 to 25%
in FY13. In fans, Bajaj has done very well with volume growth in excess of 20%
and price increase of ~5% in the most popular category ‘Bahar’. In April it
launched 7 new fans in the premium category which has margins of ~10%
compared to 3-3.5% for Bahar. In luminaries, Bajaj is increasing focus on
consumer luminaries (includes LED) given that it’s a growing market (industry
growth rate of 25% in FY13) and is dominated by a single player Philips which did
sales of ~`4bn compared to per annum industry size of `15bn. EBIT margin in this
category is ~20% compared to 7% in the segment. In domestic appliances Havells
is trying hard to grow but is struggling given faulty pricing. The reason why we say
so is because in several categories it has priced its products similar to Philips which
is a market leader.
Changes in incentive schemes and advertisement budgets: Bajaj is
launching aggressive ad campaigns (target is to increase the spending by 100%
this year to `750mn given this is its 75th anniversary) prima facie in South India to
improve its market share. It has also entered into a partnership with Big Bazaar to
market its entire range of domestic appliances. We do not think this will impact
margins as we are modeling corresponding increase in sales and profits.
Investment implications
Our top pick in the sector is Bajaj, followed by V-Guard and Havells. This is
because we expect the valuation for the company to re-rate on the back of the E&P
business turning around. Currently the consumer business trades at ~40%
discount compared to Havells’ consumer business despite 4.2% points higher
earnings and EBITDA CAGR over FY13-15 and higher pre tax ROCE (91% for
Bajaj’s consumer business in FY13 and FY14 compared to 56% for Havells). We
have valued the consumer business at `295 per share which implies a multiple of
18.8x. We also like V-Guard for its strong franchise in South India. We expect the
company to grow at an earnings CAGR of 35% over FY13-15. Our DCF value is at
`591 per share which implies a P/E of 21.6x. The implied target multiple for V-
Guard is higher than Bajaj because V-Guard is growing at virtually double the
pace of Bajaj given its small base and abysmally low market share in Non-South
markets which are 3x compared to the market in South.
Exhibit 2: VGuard reported yet another strong quarter Exhibit 3: Thanks to strong revenue growth witnessed
of revenue growth (LHS figs in `mn) in Electronic and Electro-Mechanical (LHS figs in `mn)
4,000 60% 3,000 70%
3,500 50% 2,500 60%
3,000 2,000 50%
2,500 40% 40%
1,500
30%
2,000 30% 1,000 20%
1,500 500 10%
20%
1,000 0 0%
10%
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
500
- 0%
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
Electronic
Electronic / Electro-Mechanical
Electronic (YoY)
Revenues YoY Electronic / Electro-Mechanical (YoY)
For Bajaj, the Non E&P business delivered yet again with a revenue growth of 20%
YoY primarily led by the consumer business which grew 22% YoY. Growth in the
lighting business recovered to 15% YoY after growing at 6.6% and 11% YoY in Q2
and Q3 respectively. This is primarily because of a shift in strategy to focus more
on LEDs wherein Philips is a market leader with sales of ~`4bn compared to less
that `1bn for domestic companies like Havells and Bajaj. E&P business continued
to disappoint with revenues declining by 22% YoY.
Exhibit 4: Bajaj’ Non E&P business reported yet Exhibit 5: Thanks to consumer durables business which
another quarter of strong revenue growth (LHS figs in continues to do well and also lighting now picking up
`mn) (LHS figs in `mn)
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
- -30%
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
Lighting
Consumer durable
Non E&P E&P Lighting Growth (YoY)
Non E&P Growth E&P Growth Consumer durable Growth (YoY)
Source: Ambit Capital research Source: Ambit Capital research
For Havells the biggest surprise was the lower revenue growth in the consumer
durables business which grew only 18% YoY (average in 9MFY13 was 47%)
despite aggressive launch of domestic appliances in FY12. Our interaction with
primary data suggests that Havells is struggling in domestic appliances due to
aggressive pricing. In some products it competes heads on with MNC players like
Philips. This poor performance in the domestic appliance is worrisome given that
the management is targeting 40%+ growth in this segment over FY13-15;
domestic appliance market in India is at `50bn and 15-20% CAGR over the last
five years. Bajaj and TTK Prestige, leaders in this segment did sales of more than
`10bn per annum in this category compared to less than `2bn for Havells.
The cables and wires business which is its largest segment by revenues reported a
decline of 3% on a YoY basis which is in line with the industry given the sharp
decline in the copper prices in the last fortnight of March. Copper prices declined
by 10% YoY during this period on dollar terms and 5% in rupee terms. Note that a
large part of the quarter’s sales happen in the last fortnight as dealers start
pushing sales to meet their annual targets. Also as copper prices fall, the prices of
cables and wires also fall given the commoditized nature of the business.
Exhibit 6: Electricals consumer durables sales after Exhibit 7: Cables and wires business is struggling (LHS
doing so well in 9mFY13 disappointed in Q4FY13 (Figs represent % YoY cables and wires sales and RHS copper
represent % YoY growth) prices in $/tonne)
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
Switchgears Lighting & Fixtures
Electrical Consumer Durables Average copper prices Cables and Wires
Outlook
Q1 gross margins likely to improve sequentially for Bajaj and V-
Guard
We expect sequential improvement in margins for Bajaj and V-Guard. In case of V-
Guard we expect at least 200bps sequential improvement in margins. This is
because it has already increased prices of stabilizers, UPS and Inverters by 4-5%
QoQ. Volume growth for these products has been in the range of 22-28% YoY as
highlighted by dealers across North, South and West excluding Maharashtra. Note
that stabilizers, UPS and Inverters contributed 50% of V-Guard’s EBIT in FY13.
Exhibit 8: Electronic (stabilizer, UPS and Inverter) Exhibit 9: ..and this impacted V-Guard gross margin as
segment’s margin declined significantly in Q3 and Q4 contribution of this segment to overall profit is high
(LHS represent Electronic margins and RHS Electro- (LHS represent contribution to total EBIT and RHS
Mechanical)… represent absolute gross margin)
9.0% 30%
95%
16.0% 8.0% 29%
85%
7.0%
14.0% 75% 28%
6.0%
65% 27%
12.0% 5.0%
55%
4.0% 26%
10.0% 45%
3.0% 25%
35%
8.0% 2.0%
25% 24%
1.0%
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
6.0% 0.0%
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
Electronic / Electro-Mechanical
Electronics
Electronics Electronic / Electro-Mechanical Gross margin
For Bajaj we expect the Non E&P margin to improve by at least 100bps QoQ in the
current quarter. Whilst we expect ~35bps improvement due to improvement in
margins in the fans segment, we expect ~56bps improvement due to higher share
of LEDs which enjoy ~28% gross margins.
Fans segment for Bajaj has been a laggard given that in FY13 it made EBIT margin
of ~3.5% compared to Havells’ ~13%, given low share of premium products for
Bajaj in fans. Also, Bajaj had not increased the realization for its most popular
category ‘Bahar’ for couple of years. However, in Q1 Bajaj has launched seven
new fans in the premium category. Also the realization for ‘Bahar’ has been
increased by ~5%. Our interactions with dealers suggest good response for the
new fans and also no impact to volumes of ‘Bahar’ despite an increase in average
realization. This is partly also attributable to the strong growth in the fans segment
in April and May. Note that air conditioners have been witnessing 30% YoY
volume growth in April and May. Consequently we expect margins in this business
to improve by at least 150bps YoY. In FY13 fans with a margin of 3.5% contributed
to 9% of Non E&P’s EBIT. In FY14 we expect 15% YoY revenue growth in fans and
150bps YoY improvement in margins.
Lightings & Luminaries segment for Bajaj has been growing at ~18% CAGR over
the last six years primarily on the back of ~21% growth in lightings (luminaries has
grown by 13%). However, margins have fluctuated from 5% to 8%, given the
commoditized nature of the business. Our recent interaction with dealers suggest
rising focus on consumer luminaries which have higher margins. Bajaj has
launched several new products in consumer luminaries and also given dealers a
target to grow by 100% YoY in FY14. In FY13, consumer luminaries’ sales stood at
`750mn and posted EBIT of ~20%. The industry size in FY13 stood at ~`12bn
which was a ~25% higher from FY12. Philips was the market leader with sales of
~`4bn annually. All other players posted sales below `1bn.
Exhibit 10: FY12 and FY13 have been tough years for Exhibit 11: Margins in the lightings has been low (LHS
Fans (LHS represents contribution of fans in Non E&P represent lighting contribution in Non E&P and RHS
and RHS % YoY growth in fans) represents % YoY growth in Non E&P)
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113A
Q213A
Q313A
Q413A
370,000 6,000
Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13
V-Guard Gross margin
Copper prices (INR/tonne) Copper prices ($/tonne) Havells EBIT margin of cables and wires
Exhibit 14: Net forex exposure of Light Electrical companies in our coverage is not significant (Figs in `mn unless
mentioned otherwise)
Net forex exposure as % of revenues FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 FY07 FY06
Havells
CIF value of imports 3,923 3,158 2,303 1,310 3,009 1,206 973
Expenditure in foreign currency 41.7 64.7 47.6 64.4 40.3 40.1 26.74
Earnings in forex 1,726 1,751 2,147 2,121 1,417 961 728
Net forex exposure (A) 2,239 1,471 204 (747) 1,632 285 271
Net Revenues (B) 36,156 28,816 23,714 21,983 20,694 15,526 10,071
Net forex exposure as % of revenues (A/B) 6.2% 5.1% 0.9% -3.4% 7.9% 1.8% 2.7%
Imported raw material as % of revenues 5.9% 5.4% 8.4% 5.6% 11.8% 7.2% 9.1%
Bajaj
CIF value of imports 2,510 1,638 1,104 1,075 666 421 442
Expenditure in foreign currency 141.4 74.4 53.3 45 43.5 30.3 17.4
Earnings in forex 22.6 32 41.9 81.2 26.3 2.8 21.4
Net forex exposure (A) 2,628 1,681 1,115 1,039 684 448 438
Net Revenues (B) 30,942 27,394 22,272 17,641 13,732 10,773 8,453
Net forex exposure as % of revenues (A/B) 8.5% 6.1% 5.0% 5.9% 5.0% 4.2% 5.2%
Imported finished goods as % of revenues 7.2% 5.6% 4.8% 5.9% 4.8% 3.8% 4.4%
V-Guard
CIF value of imports 509.8 366.4 159.3 62.44 15.6 13.32 10.2
Expenditure in foreign currency 0.57 0.6 0.6 0.25 0.5 0.02 0.04
Earnings in forex 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.76 0.14 0.3 0.5
Net forex exposure (A) 509 367 159 62 16 13 10
Net Revenues (B) 9,936 7,266 4,541 3,167 2,781 2,222 1,705
Net forex exposure as % of revenues (A/B) 5.1% 5.0% 3.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Imported finished goods as % of revenues 4.6% 4.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
Power deficits set to increase in FY14, positive for stabilizers, UPS and
Inverters.
As per the Load Generation Balance Report by CEA released in May 2013, whilst
peak power deficit in India is likely to reduce from 9% in FY13 to 2.3% in FY14, in
southern region the same is likely to increase to 26.1% in FY14 compared to
18.5% in FY13. This is primarily on account of increase in peak deficits in the
southern states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala from 13.5%, 13.2% and
8.8% to 27.4%, 34.4% and 24.6% respectively. This augurs well for V-Guard as
south India contributed to 75% of its sales in FY13. Note that power deficit is the
biggest driver for V-Guard’s Electronic sales (includes Stabilizers, UPS and
Inverters) which contributed 50% of its profits in FY13.
Exhibit 15: CEA expects significant increase in peak Exhibit 16: This augurs well for V-Guard as majority of
power deficit in South India in FY14 (Figs represent its sales which are driven by power deficit come from
peak power deficit) South India
FY13 FY14E % of % of
Profits from Electronic
revenues revenues
All India -9.0% -2.3% Year segment* as % of overall
from from Non-
profits
Northern -8.9% -1.3% South South
FY09 91% 9% 60%
Western -1.5% 6.8%
Southern -18.5% -26.1% FY10 85% 15% 57%
About Morphy
Morphy is a part of the $1.3bn Glen Dimplex Goup, a leading worldwide
manufacturer of electric heating and domestic appliances having strong presence
in UK, Europe, America, Canada and Middle East. It owns major brands in various
categories namely Morphy Richards, EIO Morphy Richards, Dimplex, Aqua Vac,
Belling EWT, Goblin, Electromode, Faber, AKO, Glen, Stoves, New World &
Riedel. For over 66 years, it has been a leader in household appliances in Europe,
both in terms of latest designs as well as technology. More than 90% of British
homes use Morphy’s products for chores ranging from hair drying to bread
making. Every year, more than 5 million units are sold causing the turnover to
exceed US$200 million.
Exhibit 18: Morphy UK has more variant than Morphy Exhibit 19: Also prices for Morphy UK are higher than
India (Figs represent number of variants) Morphy India (Figs represent minimum and maximum
price for Morphy India and UK)
60 21,000
50 18,000
40 15,000
30 12,000
20 9,000
10 6,000
- 3,000
-
Kettles
Toasters
machines
preparations
Cooking and
Floor care
Ironing
Coffee
Kettles
Toasters
machines
Vaccum
Steam
cleaner
baking
Iron
Coffee
Food
Exhibit 21: Recent transactions in the Electrical segment have been at punchy multiples
Deal value (%) Stake EV/EBITDA
Acquirer-Target Number of distributors Year PE(x)
(`mn) acquired (x)
Matsushita-Anchor 10,000 dealers and 300,000 retailers 2010 20,000 80 14 15
Legrand-Indo-Asian 250 distributors and 15,000 dealers
2010 6,000 100 20 NA
Fusegear and retailers
900 distributors and 25,000 retail
SchneiderElectric-Luminous 2011 14,000 74 16 NA
outlets
Schneider-Digi Link 3,000 retail stores 2011 5,030 100 NA 23
Source: Ambit Capital research
c) Bajaj has a strong supply chain management: Bajaj has one of the most-
efficient supply chain management practices in India. This is corroborated by its
inventory days, which are the lowest in the industry. In FY12, BJE’s inventory days
for its electrical durables segment were at 37 days as against 66 days for Havells
and 54 days for V-Guard. Also, the average inventory days over the past three
years for BJE’s electrical durables segment were at ~37 days as compared to 56
days for Havells and 55 days for V-Guard.
This, to a great extent, is responsible in maximising dealers’ Return on Investment
(RoI), according to Mr Tandon, the head of Bajaj’s electrical durables segment. In
the past three years, the ROI of some of Bajaj’s dealers has almost tripled to
~65%.
Lastly the lower inventory days help in better cash conversion. After Havells, Bajaj
has the second best cash conversion cycle.
Exhibit 22: Bajaj’s inventory days are the lowest amidst peers
Bajaj Havells* V-Guard
Debtor days 63 14 54
Inventory days 37 56 55
Creditor days (including acceptances) 45 30 30
Cash Conversion 55 40 79
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research * We have calculated this on a standalone basis
Relative valuation
Exhibit 23: Bajaj trades at a discount to Havells despite higher earnings CAGR and higher ROE improvement
FY13
Mrkt Sales EBITDA EPS
Div
Cap CAGR EV/Sales (x) CAGR EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR P/E (x) ROE (%)
Yield
(`bn) (%) (%) (%)
(%)
FY13-15 FY14 FY15 FY13-15 FY14 FY15 FY13-15 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15
Havells 87.8 1.1 11.7 1.17 1.04 19.2 11.3 9.9 21.3 18.2 15.4 32.3 29.6 27.8
V-Guard 13.5 0.9 26.1 0.84 0.67 33.1 9.9 7.5 35.2 16.5 11.7 20.1 27.9 31.3
Bajaj 16.7 1.2 22.7 0.43 0.35 86.8 6.3 4.6 91.2 12.7 9.0 7.0 17.0 20.8
Average 1.1 20.2 0.80 0.69 46.4 9.2 7.3 49.2 15.8 12.0 19.8 24.8 26.6
Source: Ambit Capital research
Bajaj clearly looks the most attractive on a relative basis. Whilst it trades at
a discount of 25% and 32% based on FY14 P/E and EV/EBITDA compared to peers,
its earnings and EBITDA CAGR is 1.8x compared to peers. Also the growth in ROE
in FY15 over FY13 is the highest for Bajaj (13% points) compared to peers. This is
primarily on the back of an expected turnaround in its E&P division. After reporting
an EBIT loss of `1.2bn in FY13, we expect this division to report an EBIT break even
in FY14 and 4% EBIT margin in FY15 compared to average 10% over F07-12.
If we eliminate the E&P business for a like to like consumer business comparison,
Bajaj’s consumer business despite having superior ROCE relative to peers is
trading at an unjustifiable discount to Havells and V-Guard.
Based on FY14 earnings and EBITDA, Bajaj trades at ~40% discount to Havells
EBITDA and earnings despite 4.2% points higher earnings and EBITDA CAGR and
significantly higher FY13 pre tax ROCE. Note that we calculate the P/E multiple of
Bajaj’s consumer business by adding `31 per share to the current share price of
`168 per share. This is because we have valued the E&P business in our DCF
based valuation method at negative `31 per share which is equivalent to ~65% of
the FY13 capital employed. For Havells also we follow the same approach. We
calculate the P/E multiple of Havells’s standalone business by deducting `25 per
share from the current share price of `704 per share. This is because we have
valued Sylvania’s business in our DCF based valuation method at `25 per share.
Research
Buy >5%
Sell <5%
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