Environ Earth Sci
DOI 10.1007/s12665-010-0568-5
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Development of an indoor radon risk map of the Walloon region
of Belgium, integrating geological information
G. Cinelli • F. Tondeur • B. Dehandschutter
Received: 4 August 2009 / Accepted: 27 April 2010
 Springer-Verlag 2010
Abstract A radon risk map for the Walloon region of
Belgium, based on the two databases available, has been
calculated and is presented in this work. The data are
organized into geological units. For each unit, an average
logarithmic standard deviation is calculated, after correct-
ing the higher variability of short term data. The region is
divided with an 1-km grid. For each node, the local geo-
logical unit is determined, as well as the corresponding
logarithmic standard deviation. The logarithmic mean is
evaluated by smoothing the data belonging to the same
geological unit as the node. Assuming a log-normal dis-
tribution, a map that shows for each node the predicted
percentage of buildings with an indoor radon concentration
above the Action level (400 Bq/m3) is constructed. This is
the first radon risk map for this region that fully takes into
account the geological information.
Keywords Radon risk mapping  Indoor radon 
Geology  Geostatistics
G. Cinelli (&)
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico-Ambientali,
Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna,
P.za di Porta S. Donato 1, 40126 Bologna, Italy
e-mail: giorgia.cinelli2@unibo.it
F. Tondeur
ISIB, Haute Ecole P.-H. Spaak, Rue Royale 150,
1000 Brussels, Belgium
B. Dehandschutter
FANC, Ravensteinstraat 36, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Introduction
In many countries, exposition to radon is known to be a
major contributor to the total radiation dose to the popu-
lation (Dubois 2005).
The international agency for research on cancer (IARC),
a WHO (world health organitation) agency specializing in
cancer, and the US National Toxicology Programme have
classified radon as a human carcinogen. Scientists have
also been investigating whether levels of radon found in
homes and other places are a significant hazard to health.
These studies are now complete and pooled analyses of key
studies in Europe, North America, and China have con-
firmed that radon in homes contributes substantially to the
occurrence of lung cancers world-wide (USEPA 2008;
WHO 2008).
The international commission for radiological protection
(ICRP) and the EU Council Directive 96/29/EURATOM
(1996) give recommendations concerning the identification
of areas, where an increased number of houses are likely to
have high radon risk and thus should be considered as
‘‘radon prone’’. To further identify regions that are sus-
ceptible to high radon levels, most European countries have
organized large sampling campaigns, mainly by perform-
ing indoor and soil-gas measurements.
The institute for environment and sustainability (IES) of
the directorate general joint research centre (JRC) of the
European commission (EC) has conducted a European
survey to assess the means and methods used by national
authorities to describe radon levels in their countries
(Dubois 2005). This report has underlined the large variety
of methods used to generate so-called radon maps.
Existing European radon maps look very different in
many aspects: in terms of the displayed variable, the spatial
resolution, the type of interpolation (or not), and the
123

selection of levels displayed for the variables (Bossew and
Dubois 2006).
The regional variation of radon availability from ground
is multifactorial and therefore generalizations are not easy
to obtain. Two factor groups are known which predispose
houses to elevated indoor radon levels. They consist of the
territorial situation characterized by regional geology,
geomorphology and soil type, and the regionally co-located
building and housing conditions like foundation and con-
struction type, local building materials, water supply,
quality of fabric an age of house, window glazing, etc.
Some European countries built maps of indoor radon levels
giving estimates of the mean radon levels in buildings by
area. Other countries instead used indirect indicators of
indoor radon to derive maps of radon prone areas (Kemski
et al. 2009; Mikšová and Barnet 2002). The indicators
include parameters such as concentration of radium or
radon in the ground, and soil permeability.
The choice of the risk indicator is largely related to the
availability of the relevant data. Only few countries have
systematically collected soil radon data, but many more
have organized indoor measurement campaigns and are
thus naturally led to use these data as the basis of their
radon risk maps. Even then, it is useful to include some
information on the soil and subsoil properties. In the
absence of measured data, the information can be derived
from existing geological, lithological, or pedological maps.
This is the methodology adopted to establish the map of
radon potential in the United Kingdom, which has drawn
on the methodology described in this paper. For the
430,000 indoor data collected in UK, an analysis of vari-
ance has demonstrated that geological unit, house type,
double-glazing, floor level of bedroom, living area, and
date of building year explain 29% of the total variation.
The analysis of the effects of geology (geological unit) and
of house-specific factors showed that the geological unit
explains about 20% of the variation in logged radon levels
in a data set for around 400,000 dwellings (Miles and
Appleton 2005).
The goal of the present paper is to produce a map of the
indoor radon risk in the Walloon region (Belgium). The
map will display the predicted percentage of dwellings that
have a radon concentration above the action level (400 Bq/
m3), in agreement with the definition of radon-prone areas
recommended by ICRP (1990), and with the mapping
categories adopted in Belgium by the federal agency of
nuclear control (FANC 2009).
First, the data are organized into geological units,
grouping formations of similar ages, with the two con-
straints (a) to make homogenous groups from the point of
view of the radon risk and (b) to make groups big enough
for better statistics. At any given location, the local geo-
logical unit is determined, and the local logarithmic mean
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Environ Earth Sci
of indoor radon concentrations is predicted by smoothing
the data associated with the same geological unit. Exam-
ining the variograms, a constant variogram model can be
used, which means that the moving average is the adequate
smoothing method. A preliminary study has shown that the
data belonging to one geological unit can reasonably be
described by a log-normal distribution (Cinelli et al. 2009).
A constant average logarithmic standard deviation for each
geological unit, which allows calculating immediately the
percentage above the action level can be assumed.
Instruments and method
Database
Two databases of indoor radon measurements coming from
the South of Belgium, the Walloon region, are used. About
the north of Belgium it is supposed, on the basis of the few
available data and of geological information, that no sig-
nificant radon risk exists (Gerardy and Tondeur 2002).
The two data sets used have been collected by the fed-
eral agency for nuclear control (FANC) on the one hand
and by the Institut Supérieur Industriel de Bruxelles (ISIB)
on the other hand. The ISIB data, about 5,000, are short-
term (ST) measurements collected between 1990 and 2004
in houses with charcoal canisters exposed (Cohen and
Nason 1986) during 3–4 days in every season except
summer; radon is measured in equilibrium with its short-
lived progeny by gamma-spectrometry with NaI(Tl)
detector. Only ground floor data will be analyzed hereafter
(Tondeur 2005). The FANC data, about 7500, are long-
term (LT) indoor radon data collected using track-etch
Makrofol detectors (Urban and Piesch 1981), exposed
3 months, from 1995 to 2000 on ground floor levels
(Dehandschutter et al. 2009).
Long-term measurements were gathered by several
Belgian laboratories. The calibration of the detectors was
controlled by using two small radon reference chambers at
ISIB and at the Ghent university (Tondeur 1998) as well as
through the participation to European intercomparisons
(Howarth and Miles 2000). For ST detectors, the calibration
factors provided by the manufacturer were used (Canberra
1987). The consistency between the calibrations of LT and
ST measurements was indirectly established by the statistical
analysis of data obtained for the same administrative units
(Tondeur 2005) or for the same geological units (Cinelli et al.
2009). The geological units considered are shown in Table 1.
It has been shown that a log-normal distribution provides a
reasonable description of the data and that the two data sets
can be merged for the evaluation of the logarithmic mean (or
the geometrical mean). The composite database represents
an important goal for two reasons: (1) the two databases have
Environ Earth Sci

Table 1 Number of data,

Num FANC Num ISIB LM FANC LM ISIB LSD FANC LSD ISIB
logarithmic means, and standard
deviations for each geological Devillian 5 171 3.87 3.94 0.81 0.94
group
Revinian 78 204 4.65 4.71 1.06 1.36
Salmian 222 72 4.57 4.73 0.79 0.95
Ordivician 18 83 4.12 4.39 0.46 1.15
Silurian 35 49 4.58 3.59 1.01 1.21
Gedinnian 652 69 4.92 4.99 0.90 1.34
Siegenian 2,312 314 4.92 4.88 0.88 1.25
Emsian 143 59 4.69 4.31 0.89 0.98
Couvinian 155 84 4.57 4.37 0.91 1.16
Givetian 77 73 4.36 4.39 0.66 1.01
Frasnian 158 71 4.09 4.17 0.59 0.92
Famennian 275 162 4.17 4.20 0.74 1.11
Tournaisian 83 99 4.18 3.95 0.88 1.13
Visean 116 175 4.39 4.16 0.82 1.29
Namurian 63 76 4.11 4.05 0.79 1.08
Westphalian 111 217 3.92 3.88 0.68 0.87
Permian 24 14 3.79 5.04 0.58 1.19
Trias-Jurassic 373 78 4.14 4.09 0.67 0.65
Cretaceous 148 147 3.78 3.91 0.68 0.94
Eocene 197 730 3.87 3.66 0.61 0.94
Oligocene-Miocene-Pliocene 29 19 4.26 4.26 0.54 0.84
Loess ? ale 1,225 809 4.27 3.88 0.76 0.85
Alluvian alm 832 383 4.54 3.68 0.96 0.96

different geographical distributions and can be considered as
complementary in this respect, and (2) increasing the number
of data also improves the statistical power of our analysis.
For each house for which a radon measurement is
available, the database includes the geographical coordi-
nates (Belgian Lambert System 1972), the radon concen-
tration, and the local geological unit determined with the
digital geological map (GSB).
Loess, a quaternary eolian deposit, here is considered as
a separate unit, which is not the case in the Belgian geo-
logical map, where loess is presented as a local cover
above the underlying geological unit, with no indication of
the limits of loess-covered areas. However, loess plays a
special role in the indoor radon pollution (Tondeur et al.
1996), which justifies that it is considered apart. As there is
no easy way to know from the maps if loess is present at a
given location, it is chosen to develop two separate maps,
one for situations without loess, the other to be used where
loess is present.
All radon measurements included in the databases
suffer from significant uncertainties. The (systematic)
calibration uncertainty is considered to be \5%, on the
basis of the calibration studies to which we referred
above. Counting statistics may vary with the details of the
procedure, like the exact time of exposition. A typical
uncertainty value (1r) is 4% for both LT and ST at the
reference level (400 Bq/m3). A large uncertainty, associ-
ated with the choice of the measurement period, depends
on the building and is usually not known. For LT results,
it may be more than 50%, due to the seasonal variability.
With the aim to reduce it, most of the measurement
campaigns were organized during spring or autumn. For
ST data, the time variability is much higher and much
more stochastic, often reaching a factor 2 with respect to
the mean value, a factor 3 being not exceptional. ST
measurements were distributed among all seasons except
summer. Finally, a large stochastic uncertainty, often
more than a factor 2, is associated with the choice of the
room where the detector is installed. In general, one
single radon data cannot be used as a reliable evaluator of
the risk level in the house, but only as a trigger for the
decision of additional investigations. Nevertheless, such
data make sense when used for statistics with large
numbers of cases.
Variability
Applying the t test (Cinelli et al. 2009), the two databases
were found to be statistically compatible as far as the
geometrical mean is concerned. Instead, short-term data

123

display a stronger variability than that of long-term data.
Only long-term data should be used in principle to char-
acterize the radon risk. However, in some parts of the
Walloon region, and for some geological units, there are
too few LT data, and one has to rely on the information
from ST data. Our goal is then to find a way to correct the
ST logarithmic standard deviation (LSD).
It is assumed that the high variability of ST data is due
to a contribution not depending on geology but on the
exposition time:
r2ST ffi r2LT þ r2Dt
where the r2 are the LSDs. In other words, time vari-
ability is hypothesized and its value can be found using
the correlation between the square of LT and ST LSDs
(Fig. 1), always considering geological units. The large
uncertainties explain the poor value of the R2 coefficient.
They are related to the limited number of cases in several
geological units. Excluding the groups with \30 data
already brings R2 up to 0.5. But the uncertainties still
remain large for groups of more than 100 data. This
illustrates the basic difficulty to obtain an accurate eval-
uation of the LSD for a local neighborhood, unless a high
sampling density is achieved. It is the reason why we
prefer to use the LSD calculated for the full geological
units.
The ST logarithmic standard deviations can now be
corrected in order to establish equivalence with the long-
term ones:
r2STcorr ffi r2ST  r2Dt
The logarithmic mean standard deviation for each geo-
logical group is finally obtained as a weighted average of
the long-term and the corrected short-term logarithmic
standard deviations, as shown in the following formula:
Fig. 1 Correlation between long-term (FANC) and short-term (ISIB)
standard deviations
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Environ Earth Sci
1  
r2 ¼ NST  r2STcorr þ NLT  r2LT :
NST þ NLT
Geostatistics
Geostatistics offers a way of describing the spatial conti-
nuity of natural phenomena and provides adaptations of
classical regression techniques to take advantage of this
continuity (Isaaks and Srivastava 1989).
It is thus natural that this collection of methods and tools
was applied to analyze the spatial structure of soil-gas
radon concentration (Dubois and Bossew 2006). Indoor
radon concentration levels have been investigated only
later on and recent studies have explored possibility to
combine some geological information with the measure-
ments made indoor as this would help to extract from the
data the global trend due to the geological bedrock. Kriging
method is the main estimation procedure used in geosta-
tistics (Langley 1971). It predicts unknown values using
known value and a variogram model. By means of the
variogram, an important component of Kriging method, the
spatial correlation between indoor data having the same
geological context is measured.
The spatial analysis is a delicate issue; in fact, it pre-
dicts the trend of the variable and justifies a map based on
spatial interpolation. Geostatistic techniques offer tools
and methods for investigating indoor radon measure-
ments, but the very high variability (high nugget effect in
Kriging) would remain a serious obstacle to the produc-
tion of maps with uncertainties that could be efficiently
used for remediation and risk assessment (Dubois and
Bossew 2006).
To study the spatial structure the software Surfer8 is
used (SURFER 1999). Choosing the standardized estima-
tor, an experimental variogram is computed for each geo-
logical group of each database.
Mapping method
The methodological approach used in this study to con-
struct a radon risk map based on indoor radon measure-
ments and on geological information consists of the
following distinct activities:
(a) Division of the region in cells of one square kilometre
and association of geological information to the
center of each cell.
(b) Application of geostatistical techniques to calculate
the logarithmic mean radon concentration and asso-
ciation with each cell of the corresponding value of
smoothed logarithmic mean.
(c) Estimate of the percentage above the Action Level
using the LSD obtained for the local geological unit
Environ Earth Sci
by averaging the short-term and long-term LSDs as
explained above.
Division of the Walloon region and association
of geological information
The Walloon region is divided, in cells of one square kilo-
metre, constructing a square grid. In the present state of the
database, with an average sampling density of \1 mea-
surement per square kilometre, it seems useless to choose a
finer grid. However, our methodology could be used with a
finer definition in the areas with high sampling density.
Each cell is characterized by a coordinate couple that
represents the center of the cell (also refered to hereafter as
the node of grid).
Having the geological map in digital format (GSB) the
geology for each cell is determined. The geology at the
center of the cell is assigned to the cell.
Considering a grid of one square kilometre, it is not
expected to commit a large error considering only the
geology of the center for the full cell. The error can be
reduced considering smaller cells.
Calculation of the logarithmic mean radon concentration
Using the code Surfer, the predicted LM at one node (cell
center) is evaluated using the data belonging to the same
geological unit as the node. The smoothing interpolator
that has been used is ordinary Kriging applied to natural
logarithmic of the radon concentration. As explained in the
section of results, only the nugget effect has been consid-
ered in the variogram model, which makes Kriging
equivalent to the simple moving average.
The following values are considered:
• 30: the maximum number of data to use; this value
limits the total number of points used when smoothing
a grid node.
• 20: the minimum number of data; node is doubtful if
fewer
• 20,000 m: the distance (radius) from the grid node that
Surfer looks up to find data points when calculating the
LM at the grid nodes.
The restriction of the radius is due to the fact that two
distant zones belonging to the same geological unit can
have a very different lithology, so we do not want to
include data coming from very far areas even if they belong
to the same geological unit.
If in the circle considered (radius 20 km) there are fewer
than 20 data the node is considered as doubtful. For such
nodes it was decided to use different parameters: 50 km of
radius and 10 the minimum number of data. When even
this extension is not sufficient, the node is blanked in the
map.
Estimate of the percentage above the action level
For each cell we have the smoothed logarithmic mean and
the logarithmic mean standard deviation relative to its geo-
logical group. Supposing that the data are log-normally
distributed, the percentage above the threshold is easily
calculated. In the present case the threshold was set at
400 Bq/m3:
Z1 !
ðx  lmÞ2 1
% above AL ¼ exp   pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi dx
2  r2G rG  2  p
5:99
 100
where lm: logarithmic mean calculated for the cell; rG:
logarithmic mean standard deviation for the specific geo-
logical group; 5.99: ln (400 Bq/m3) = action level; x:
natural logarithmic of radon concentration.
Results
Variograms and variogram model
Variograms have been studied separately for each geo-
logical group and for the ISIB data (ST), and FANC data
(LT). Some examples of isotropic standardized variograms
are shown in the Fig. 2.
In the groups with few data, the variograms present
important statistical fluctuations, and the best model to
apply is not clearly visible. In general, the variograms show
a low local correlation, and for the most part a constant
model is consistent with data. There is only one exception:
the FANC data belonging to the Famennian geological
unit. The common saying that the exception proves the
rule, perfectly suits our data. Considering a constant vari-
ogram, Kriging is equivalent to the moving average method
(Tondeur 2006), which is consistent with the method fol-
lowed by other countries (Miles and Appleton 2005). That
variogram model choice disagrees with that of Zhu (Zhu
1997). It is possible that our finer geological units, elimi-
nating or decreasing considerably the geological variabil-
ity, have removed the apparent local correlations that were
the manifestation of the local geological configuration. The
short-distance extrapolation of the variogram model made
by Zhu can also be discussed, as it does not seem to be
based on an evident experimental trend. A possible corre-
lation on shorter distance, less than a kilometre, can also be
studied. The smaller number of pairs in short distance
makes our conclusions risky. But in general the results still
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Fig. 2 a Oligocene variogram from FANC. b Namurian variogram from ISIB. c Eocene variogram from FANC. d Siegenian variogram from
ISIB. e Famennian variogram from ISIB. f Famennian variogram from FANC
agree with the constant model. The isotropic experimental
variogram averages the behavior over all directions. But in
general natural phenomena are created by physical pro-
cesses that often have preferred orientation. So a possible
anisotropy of our variogram has been studied. Even if a
variation related to the direction is often observable, it is
not important and remains compatible with the constant
model. In Fig. 3 the directional variogram example shows
big variations but a great distance ([30 km). This variation
is not significant if the smoothing of data are restricted to
an area of radius \30 km.
Map of geometric mean (logarithmic mean)
The map has been constructed separately for each geo-
logical unit (Table 1) and with the method and parameters
previously described. Since the digital geological map does
not indicate the limits of loess, it is not possible to include
it in the general map. It deals exclusively with areas
without loess cover and the map is based solely on the data
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Environ Earth Sci
without loess. A separate map must be established for the
similar regions where loess cover is present. For a given
location, the user must first determine whether the loess is
present, to choose the appropriate map.
The map of the logarithmic mean for the Walloon region
is shown in Fig. 4; it includes also the region of Brussels, in
which only data coming from the ISIB database were used.
The nodes with uncertain results (\20 data within
20 km) are marked using a cross. Grey color indicates
nodes where \10 data in a radius of 50 km have been
found in the same geological unit.
The map of the logarithmic mean in the areas covered
by loess is shown in Fig. 5. Loess is mostly found in the
Northern part of the Walloon region, but even there it is
often discontinuous (Tondeur and Gerardy 2004).
Comparing these two maps we can notice that in some
areas the risk is low in the absence of loess while it becomes
moderately higher in presence of loess. In this case, the risk
is due to loess, deposited here on a permeable substrate
(chalk or sand), itself producing little radon, but allowing the
Environ Earth Sci

Fig. 3 Directional variogram

plots with tolerance set to 30

123
 Environ Earth Sci

Fig. 4 Map of the logarithmic

mean based on geology and
indoor radon measurements

Fig. 5 Map of geometrical

mean on loess cover

Fig. 6 Map of the proportion

of the distribution above
400 Bq/m3 based on geology
and indoor radon measurements

123
Environ Earth Sci
evacuation of water from loess and thus increasing its per-
meability (Tondeur 2006). Elsewhere, areas of increased
risk appear to correlate with those of Fig. 4 where the risk
arises from the formation underlying the loess.
Map of percentage above the action level
These maps are displayed in the Figs. 6 and 7; the second
one considers data coming from areas where loess is
present.
Figures 6 and 7 basically display the same features that
are directly related to the local geology, which is given in
Fig. 8. The main affected area of the Ardenne and Stavelot
massifs is clearly seen in the South of the region (except
Fig. 7 Map of the proportion
of the distribution above
400 Bq/m3 on loess cover
Fig. 8 Modified geological
map of the Walloon region
(ULg 2009)
the southernmost part: Lorraine). This affected area is
continuous and percentages above the action level as high
as 40% are predicted. It corresponds to geological units
from Cambrian to lower Devonian.
A complex pattern is observed in Condroz, South of the
Meuse river and is associated with the alternating Fame-
nian and Dinantian strips of the Dinant synclinorium. Just
North of it, affected areas are associated with Dinantian
and Silurian of the Namur synclinorium.
Finally, scattered hot spots are observed in the Northern
part of the region, most of them associated with the out-
crops of the Brabant massif (Tondeur and Gerardy 2004),
and the hot spot of Visé where the indoor radon problem
was first observed in Belgium.
123

In the Ardenne massif, the geological determination of
the radon risk may probably be amplified by climatic factors
related to the altitude (about 400–500 m). Observing the
rain maps (annual and seasonal mean precipitation), and the
mean number of days of precipitation in a year, we can see
that the Ardenne massif is the area with the highest values
(Tilmont and De Roeck 1980). This area also presents the
lowest mean temperature in Belgium, thus a strongest stack
effect in the dwellings, and presents the highest number of
days in which the ground is frozen. These climatic conse-
quences of the altitude do not apply to the hot spots. The fact
that the maximum level of risk found in the Brabant hot
spots (more than 30% of the houses above the reference
level) is nearly as high as the maxima of Ardenne (more
than 40%) shows that, in our region, geological aspects are
dominant in comparison with the climatic ones.
Conclusions
The maps shown in this article are the first radon maps for
the Walloon region that fully take into account the geo-
logical information.
They are based on the separate smoothing of the indoor
radon data for each geological unit. As the experimental
variograms do not show significant spatial correlations, the
data are smoothed with the moving average method. In this
way we evaluate the logarithmic mean radon concentration
at every node of a 1-km grid.
The logarithmic standard deviation is evaluated for each
geological group in two steps: first the logarithmic SD of
short-term measurements is corrected for their higher var-
iability and then a weighted mean value of short- and long-
term LSDs is calculated. With the LM evaluated at each
point of the map, and the LSD evaluated for each geo-
logical group, and assuming a log-normal distribution, we
have built a map that shows directly the proportion of the
distribution above the reference level (400 Bq/m3).
Several nodes of the grid show uncertain results or no
result at all, because of the insufficient number of data.
Future measurement campaigns focused on such zones
should be organized.
A separate map was established for the areas where a
loess cover is present. The limits of these areas are not
specified by the geological map, which only shows the
presence of loess at the geological sampling points.
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