Process variability

costs money
Learn how to monitor and
minimize it with good process
Standards control
Certification
Education & Training
Publishing
Conferences & Exhibits
Process Control and Safety Symposium
Houston, October 6-9, 2014
Presenter: Fernando Otero, CAP

• Fernando Otero (fernando.otero@optimogrp.com)

– Background /experience
– ISA CAP, ISA Senior, ISA PMCD Board Member
– More than 26 years as user, vendor, consultant, instructor,
entrepreneur
– Process Automation, Automatic Process Control, Process
Control Performance, Process Optimization,
– Chemical Engineering - BS, MS, PhD Candidate
– Optimo Group Inc. – Founder and Main Consultant (2009-
Present)
– Cornerstone Controls – Process Control Consultant (1998-
2009)
– Ecopetrol ICP – Process Automation Engineer (1989-1998)

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What is Process Variability?

• How good performance is. Good or poor control

• Time Series
– Deviation just means how far from the normal

• Quantification of process variability

2-Sigma
%2Sigma
Mean
• The Standard Deviation (Sigma) is a measure of how spread out
numbers are. it is the square root of the Variance.

• Variance is the average of the squared differences from the Mean

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Process Variability • Time Series
• Quantify variability

• Where is high variability coming from?

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Process Variability • Time Series
• Where is high variability coming from?

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 • Time Series
Process Variability – Decreasing variability

What is it costing me?

What is the cost of doing nothing?

Before After

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 Process Variability
How much is variability costing me?
• Time Series

• A decrease in O2 variability means

more stable combustion. If SP is
lowered (optimized), additional fuel
savings are achieved.
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Process Variability
• Process variability will always be present in your process.

• However, when it starts increasing it can be costly and negatively affect business
performance.

• It can even get out of control and generate equipment problems.

• Automatic process control has to do a lot with this.

• Quantifying, monitoring, and troubleshooting variability issues in processes have

shown to be beneficial.

Process variability reduction

allows to operate at an
optimum set point to achieve
better performance

High Variability Low Variability 8

Process Variability
The Control System
– The job of a control system, including its
instrumentation and final control elements, is
to minimize variability

– New equipment and systems do not always

achieve this goal

– Variability cannot always be seen, but its

symptoms can:

– Problems with product quality

– Plant shutdowns (trips)
– Process alarms
– Capacity reduction

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 Process Variability
Profitability

• Diagnostic and control optimization techniques used in process plants aimed at

improving of process controls usually result in a better process performance.

• Some of these examples include:

– Coordinated loop tuning in gas plants

– Control optimization in crude oil plants and injection water systems
– Optimum combustion in boilers, furnaces and combustion systems
– Pressure control linearization in crude oil pipelines
– Comprehensive loop tuning in distillation trains
– Etc., etc., etc….

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Process Variability
Variability Reduction

• Aspects that affect and generate process variability in process plants must be
analyzed for further improvement actions.

• These aspects include, among others:

– control strategy design and configuration,

– final control element performance,
– primary control element problems,
– loop interaction,
– poor loop tuning,
– poor comprehensive plant tuning,
– plant operation schemes.

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Process Variability, Benefits

• Reduction in:
– Energy
– Raw materials
– Operation
– Maintenance
– Etc.

• Product quality improvement

• Production increase

• Reduce out-of-spec production 12

Variability Management

– Identify and quantify variability

– Identify sources of variability

– Establish optimum or minimum performance

– Implement corrections

– Achieve a new improved variability level

– Sustain performance through routine and on-line monitory

– Recover performance to optimum or minimum levels in

cases of underperformance

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Identifying the sources of
Variability
• Problems with final control elements
• Loop interaction
• Aggressive loop tuning
• Faulty equipment
• Faulty instrumentation
• Bad control strategy
• Non-linear process dynamics
• Bad process design
• Bad control strategy design
• Bad control strategy implementation
• Bad operation
• Etc.

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Tools to Identify Process Variability

Statistics Tools
Crossed Correlation:

- Used to evaluate how similar is the variability of process variable against

another process variable.

- The crossed correlation plot shows the correlation coefficient at different

phase shifts in time relative to the other variable.

- Correlation coefficient goes from =1.0 (exact correlation)

- through 0.0 (no-correlation)

- to -1.0 (negatively correlated)

-It helps to identify interaction or coupling between process variables.

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Tools to identify Process Variability

Statistics Tools
- Auto-Correlation :

– Auto-correlation is a statistical tool used to measure the lack of random

behavior in data.

– It is used to show absence of correlation in a controlled variable during a

disturbance.

– Useful to determine how far from optimum a control loop is.

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 Tools to identify Process Variability
Power Spectrum

In many applications it is more

important to know the frequency
content of a signal than the
amplitude of the individual samples.

Knowing the frequency content of a

signal instead of the amplitude
provides more information about
the source of the variability of the
signal.

For example, the power spectrum

analysis can help to determine the
source of temperature oscillations that
are originated by a level control loop
that oscillates with the same
frequency.
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 Cost of Variability
Example

* Courtesy of Fisher Controls

 Cost of Increasing Variability

Performance of the control loop (600 GPM)

n = (4.4% - 2.3%) For control versus in Manual

Cost per day= $907/day [increased material cost]

(4.4-2.3)/100 *600 GPM *60 min/hr *24 hr/day * $0.05/Gal = $907.2/day

If process control performance decreased in 50% from the

optimum (to 3.6%)

n Cost por day = $562/day

n (3.6-2.3)/100* 600GPM *24 hr/day*60min/hr *$ 0.05/gal = $562/day
n For a degradation period of 1 month before performing corrective
actions are implemented to improve control
n
Potential cost avoidance = $16,848 per year 19
 Business Results Achieved
Gas Plant – LPG Plant
• Established a process variability program

• Improved performance control valves and

instrumentation

• Reviewed and improved configured process control

strategy in DCS and PLC systems

• Performed comprehensive plant tuning

• Installed a control loop performance monitoring

system

Results

• Significant decrease in start up time after an

expansion from 170 MMSCFD to 300 MMSCFD

• Significant decrease in estimated start up time of

brand new LPG plant of 6,300 BPD.

• More reliable operation

• Significant cost reduction: energy, maintenance, re-

processing, etc.

• Improve plant product quality

• Savings over $5 Million 20

 Business Results Achieved
Water injection in an oil field

Pressure control performance at a water injection system in an oil

field system

0.01*10,000
B $85
*
Day B
* 360
Day $3,060,000
Year

Year
USD $255.000 per month!
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 Business Results Achieved
Pipelines

Intermediate stations are now reliably operated with both pump units simultaneously engaged;

A minimum 3.5% increase in pipeline sustained capacity is attributed to the pressure control
optimization efforts;

Operators report a significant increase pipeline reliability;

Optimization costs were recovered in less than one

year of operation.

Operators now use standardized delivery site

operating procedures.

A significant increase in batch size accuracy was

observed at a Delivery Site, with a 32% reduction in
average over/short volumes.

More responsive control used to result in less material

from the following batch delivered inadvertently to another site
 Business Results Achieved
Boiler House
Implementation of recommendations of a variability optimization program
accomplished the following objectives

# Operation of all boilers from the Plant Master PressureController.

# Increase the condensate return from the process.
# Optimize efficiency on all boilers and minimize costs.
# Optimize combustion control by minimizing excess oxygen control.
# Provide optimal levels of process control. .
# Become a world leader in industrial boiler operations

The annual savings realized are

estimated at $236,000 per year

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Business Results Achieved
pH Control - Regenerative Thermal Oxidizer

Control problems in the pH loop of the RTO HCl Absorber.

* Poor control of pH causing unstable operation. The variability of caustic
flow is high.
Variability study determined the cause of the problem: oversized set of
* control valves with not optimum positioners and improper process and control
strategy.

* After implementation of recommendations

The annual savings realized are estimated at $126,000 per year.

*

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 Process Variability Costs Money
Summary

• When variability starts increasing it can be costly and negatively affect business
performance.

• Techniques to estimate cost of process variability, as well as benefits of minimizing

it, are incorporated nowadays in continuous process improvement programs.

• Good process control usually translates into good process performance.

• Designing and implementing good process control is key to minimization of process

variability.

• How to monitor process variability, and how to attack underperformance, are key
elements in a sustained performance program.

• There are plenty of cases in which substantial benefits have been realized when
variability has been minimized.
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Process Variability Costs Money

Thanks!
fernando.otero@optimogrp.com

Questions

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