= ,...

= ,
= ,

= +( - )
 =
=
= =
= =
⇥ ⇤
↵ = - = -

↵ = -
⇥ ⇤
↵ = - | = = | = - | =

( | = )- ( | = ) = | = - | =
= | = - | =
+ | = - | =
( | = )- ( | = ) = ↵+ | = - | =
, ?

↵
| = = | = =
| = = | = =

| = = | = =
| = = | = =
 = +( - )

= µ +
↵ = - | = = | = - | =
= | = - | =
= µ +
= =

= µ +µ -µ + + -
↵ = - = -
= µ + µ -µ +✏
= | = - | =

= + +✏

= ( | = )- ( | = )
= µ -µ = - =↵

, ?
 =
⇥ ⇤ ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
, ? | ↵ ( )= - | = , = = | = , = - | = , =
⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
= | = , = - | = , =

⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
↵ ( )= - | = = | = - | =
⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
= | = , = - | = , =

X
↵ = !( )↵ ( )
| = , = | = , = , X
↵ = !( )↵ ( )
| = , = | = , = ,

,..., ,...,

( | , )
-

X⇣ ⌘✓ ◆
b
↵ = -
=
 ⇥ ⇤
, ? |

⇡( ) = ⇡

⇡( ) = ( = | = )
( | = , ⇡ ( ) = ⇡)- ( | = , ⇡ ( ) = ⇡) = - |⇡ ( ) = ⇡

⇡( )

⇡( ) = ⇡
⇡( )
⇡( )

= =

( | , )

( | , )= + + + ⇤

( | = , = )- ( | = , = )= +
=

,...,

= =

↵ = + ( )
↵ = + ( | = )
 = = Tratamiento
Y (D=1) C

E
A

Control
[ ( )- ( )] - [ ( )- ( )]
, , , ,
B (D=0)

=
= t=1 t=2
(pre-) (post-)
[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )] Tiempo

- = =

- -[ - ]=[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )]

- -[ - ]=[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )] , = ,
= = =
=

=
= +( - )

- | = = - | =
 = + + + ( ⇤ )+✏

= ,
= ,

= ,
= ,
 E(y│W) E(y|W,D=1)

E(y|W,D=0)

β2

( | , ) = + +

: = : >

w0 W

E(y│W)

( | , = ) ( | , = ) E(y|W,D=1)

( | , )= + + + ⇤
E(y|W,D=0)

w0 W
 ={ , }

, ?

⇥ ⇤
, ? |

( , )?
6 |

- =↵
( | = )- ( | = )
↵=
↵ ( | = )- ( | = )

= + - = +↵

? = =

( | = ) = ( )+↵ ( | = )
( | = ) = ( )+↵ ( | = )

( | = )- ( | = )
↵=
( | = )- ( | = )

↵ ( | = ) 6= ( | = )
( = | = )=
=