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= ,...

= ,
= ,

= +( - )
=
=
= =
= =

↵ = -
⇥ ⇤
↵ = - = -

⇥ ⇤
↵ = - | = = | = - | =
( | = )- ( | = ) = | = - | =
= | = - | =
+ | = - | =
( | = )- ( | = ) = ↵+ | = - | =


, ?

| = = | = =
| = = | = =

| = = | = =
| = = | = =
↵ = - | = = | = - | =
= | = - | =

↵ = - = -
= | = - | =
= +( - )

= µ +
= µ +
= =

= µ +µ -µ + + -
= µ + µ -µ +✏

= + +✏

= ( | = )- ( | = )
= µ -µ = - =↵
, ?
⇥ ⇤
, ? |

| = , = | = , = ,
| = , = | = , = ,
=
⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
↵ ( )= - | = , = = | = , = - | = , =
⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
= | = , = - | = , =

⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
↵ ( )= - | = = | = - | =
⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
= | = , = - | = , =

X
↵ = !( )↵ ( )
X
↵ = !( )↵ ( )
=

,..., ,...,

X⇣ ⌘✓ ◆
b
↵ = -
=
( | , )
⇡( ) = ( = | = )

⇡( ) = ⇡

= =
⇥ ⇤
, ? |

⇡( ) = ⇡

( | = , ⇡ ( ) = ⇡)- ( | = , ⇡ ( ) = ⇡) = - |⇡ ( ) = ⇡

⇡( )

⇡( )
⇡( )
( | , )

( | , )= + + + ⇤

( | = , = )- ( | = , = )= +
=

,...,

↵ = + ( )
↵ = + ( | = )
= =
= =

[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )]

=
=

[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )]
Tratamiento
Y (D=1) C

E
A

Control
B (D=0)

t=1 t=2
(pre-) (post-)
Tiempo
-

- -[ - ]=[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )]

- -[ - ]=[ ( , )- ( , )] - [ ( , )- ( , )]
= =

, = ,
= = =
=

=
= +( - )

- | = = - | =
= + + + ( ⇤ )+✏

= ,
= ,

= ,
= ,
( | , ) = + +

: = : >
E(y│W) E(y|W,D=1)

E(y|W,D=0)

β2

w0 W
( | , = ) ( | , = )

( | , )= + + + ⇤
E(y│W)

E(y|W,D=1)

E(y|W,D=0)

w0 W
, ?
={ , }

⇥ ⇤
, ? |

( , )?
6 |
- =↵

= + - = +↵

( | = ) = ( )+↵ ( | = )
( | = ) = ( )+↵ ( | = )

( | = )- ( | = )
↵=
( | = )- ( | = )

↵ ( | = ) 6= ( | = )
( | = )- ( | = )
↵=
( | = )- ( | = )

= =
( = | = )=
=

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