Applied Geochemistry 25 (2010) 580–585

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Applied Geochemistry

journalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeochem

Satellite detection of carbon monoxide emission prior to the Gujarat earthquake of 26

January 2001
a, b b a
Ramesh P. Singh *, J. Senthil Kumar , Jacques Zlotnicki , Menas Kafatos
b
a Department of Physics, Computational Science and Engineering, Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange CA 92866, USA
Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand, OPGC-CNRS, Campus des Cuzeaux, 24, av. des Landais, 63177 Aubiere Cedex, France

article info abstract

Article history: NOAA AVHRR images have clearly shown anomalous changes in land surface temperature associated with earthquakes in the
Available online 25 January 2010 past two decades. Soon after the Gujarat earthquake of January 26, 2001, an anomalous increase in land surface temperature
was inferred from MODIS satellite data a few days prior to the main earthquake event. The cause of such an anomalous
change in surface temperature prior to the earthquake is attributed to many probable phenomena, but no definite cause has
been identified. In the present study, changes of a complementary nature were found of land surface temperature associated
with the emission of CO from the epicentral region. The observed changes on land and atmosphere asso-ciated with the
Gujarat earthquake of 26 January, 2001, show the existence of strong coupling between land, atmosphere and ionosphere.

2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Satellite observations provide global information about land surface

Earthquake precursory signals have been studied over the last several
decades in an attempt to get early warning information about an impending
earthquake. Several ground geophysical (elec-trical, electromagnetic,
magnetic, seismic), stress and strain, and geochemical (Rn, CO 2, CH4, He)
parameters have been observed from the epicentral region as precursory
signals and the use of these parameters has been claimed to give an early
warning infor-mation about an earthquake or to forecast an earthquake. How-
ever, the lack of continuous ground measurements have been a problem for
scientists in making any reliable earthquake forecast using such signals for
early warning information. The earth is geo-logically, geophysically and
geochemically complex and strong inhomogeneity further creates a challenge
to the scientific commu-nity to understand these precursory signals. A set of
ground obser-vations from one epicentral location may not be observed over
other epicentral locations due to the contrast in geology, geophys-ical and
hydrological and stress regimes. Due to the lack of ground observations, it has
been difficult to understand the nature and complementary behavior of the
earthquake precursory signals. Field observations from seismically active
regions have revealed significant modifications of physical and physico-
chemical param-eters (such as electrical conductivity, surface temperature,
pH, Eh), and the concentration of dissolved ionic species and gases (CO 2, H2,
Rn, He, CH4) in the waters in connection with strong earthquakes (Cioni et
al., 2007).
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: rsingh@chapman.edu (R.P. Singh).
temperature. An increase in land surface temperature has been observed by
numerous workers about 7–14 days prior to an earthquake over the epicentral
regions but in most cases, only qualitative changes in the land surface
temperature have been ob-served but no quantitative reliable estimate has
been made (Singh et al., 2007a,b). Sometimes, an increase in land surface
tempera-ture is found and sometimes little appreciable changes are ob-served.
Several causes of such thermal anomalies have been proposed, e.g. due to the
piezoelectric and elastic strain dilation forces, ground water fluctuations and
release of gas emissions, CO2 emissions causing a local greenhouse effect
(Gorny et al., 1988; Salman et al., 1992; Tronin et al., 2002; Hayakawa and
Mol-chanov, 2002). Further, seismologists and earthquake physicists have
raised questions about the accuracy and statistical signifi-cance of such
observations and complementary nature of these parameters. In this paper,
satellite observations of land, atmo-sphere and meteorological parameters
associated with Gujarat earthquake have been used, showing their
complementary nature.
2. Earthquake process
Fig. 1a shows the earthquake process that starts at around 5 km and below
the earth’s surface. The stresses are build up prior to the earthquake and as a
result elastic and electromagnetic waves are ob-served (Eftaxias et al., 2007;
Kalimeri et al., 2008). Elastic waves are observed on the ground whereas
electromagnetic emissions are responsible for influencing the electric and
magnetic fields of the earth, atmosphere and ionosphere. The changes in the
electric and magnetic fields are measured in the atmosphere and ionosphere

0883-2927/$ - see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.apgeochem.2010.01.014
 R.P. Singh et al. / Applied Geochemistry 25 (2010) 580–585 581

emission and greenhouse gas emissions, e.g. CO, CO 2, NOx, CH4, have been
reported by numerous scientists from many countries from the epicentral
region. The emission of these gases may lead to the change in the skin
temperature and also Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) of the epicentral
region that have been observed from satel-lite data.

3. The Gujarat earthquake

The Gujarat earthquake of magnitude 7.6 (Ms) occurred at 03:16 GMT on

26 January, 2001. The epicenter (shown with a star in Fig. 1b) of this
earthquake was 23.399N 70.316E with a focal depth of 17 km. A total of
19,727 people were killed and 16,600 were injured, about 600,000 people
were left homeless, with 348,000 houses destroyed and an additional 844,000
damaged. This was the most deadly earthquake in the last 200 years in India,
that cost a total of about $5 billion (http://cires.colorado.edu/~bil-
ham/Gujarat2001.html).

With the development of space technology, over the last two decades
multi sensor satellites are capable of providing informa-tion about land, ocean
and atmospheric parameters apart from damage mapping. For the first time
ever, scientists used many kinds of satellite remote sensing to study changes
in land, ocean and atmospheric parameters associated with the Gujarat earth-
quake. High resolution satellite images were used for damage assessment,
mapping of changes in lineaments and also mapping damage to buildings
(Yalkun et al., 2001; Singh et al., 2001a; Saito et al., 2004; Singh and Singh,
2005) and to determine changes in flooding patterns (Gahalaut and
Burgmann, 2004) after the Gujarat earthquake of 26 January, 2001. Using
optical and microwave sens-ing data, changes in land surface features, surface
temperature, Surface Latent Heat Flux, (Singh et al., 2001a,b; Dey and Singh,
2003; Ouzounov and Freund, 2004; Saraf and Choudhury, 2005; Genzano et
al., 2007), ocean parameters (Singh et al., 2001a, 2002, 2006), atmospheric
parameters (Dey et al., 2004; Okada et al., 2004) and also changes in
ionospheric electron density (Trigunait et al., 2004; Dabas et al., 2007) have
been found associ-ated with the Gujarat earthquake. Fig. 2 shows changes in
land sur-face temperature observed from MODIS satellite data (Ouzounov
and Freund, 2004), anomalous changes in land surface temperature prior to
the main earthquake event of January 26, 2001 were ob-served (Ouzounov
and Freund, 2004; Saraf and Choudhury, 2005). Ground observations have
shown extensive liquefaction in large areas in the epicentral region (Singh et
al., 2001c) and also oozing of water and release of different types of gases
(Gupta et al., 2002). Such changes are likely due to the changes in the SLHF
prior to the main Gujarat earthquake of January 26, 2001 (Dey and Singh,
2003). Further, Bhattacharya et al. (2007) found significant ULF/ELF
emissions prior to the Gujarat earthquake. All these obser-vations by
numerous scientific groups were reported indepen-dently after the Gujarat
earthquake and no efforts have been
Fig. 1. (a) Earthquake processes and their effects. (b) The star shows the location of the Gujarat
earthquake of 26 January, 2001.

using ground probe and satellite sensors. The changes in the subsur-face stress
bring changes in the hydrological regime, as a result Rn

Fig. 2. MODIS thermal images showing changes in surface temperature in the epicentral region. (Source: Ouzounov and Freund, 2004.)
582 R.P. Singh et al. / Applied Geochemistry 25 (2010) 580–585
made to link these observations and to study the complementary nature of
various land, ocean and atmospheric parameters. The earthquake occurs at a
depth of 5 km and below and it was difficult for seismologists to believe the
changes in ocean and atmospheric parameters and also the changes in the
surface temperature ob-served from satellites since no significant changes in
the tempera-ture in boreholes has been found during any earthquake.
Moreover, the physical model to provide a linkage between earthquake pro-
cesses and associated effects observed from satellites is still diffi-cult to
explain. In the following section, efforts have been made to provide an
account of chemical precursors from several groups which will be useful in
explaining linkages of various anomalies observed on the ground and from
satellite data.
4. Chemical precursory signals
Many groups have found emission of gases and Rn associated with
earthquakes around the world but due to the absence of con-tinuous
observations in an epicentral earthquake area, no conclu-sive evidence has
been found. However, the radon anomaly is found to be related to local
conditions (rock types, stress magni-tudes, focal depth and ground water
conditions). Wakita (1975) and King (1989) have demonstrated that chemical
precursory sig-nals are detectable especially in faults and intersections of
faults (Toutain and Baubron, 1999). It is strongly believed that such
anomalies could be related to the subsurface fluid flow in stress build up in
the epicentral region prior to an earthquake. The geo-physical evidence of
local fluid flows and circulation in the near earth surface in epicentral regions
has been established, such fluid movement is known to be produced by the
reactions of dehydra-tion and are therefore trapped in sequences of sediments,
The role of pore fluids in reducing the strength of rocks and as a result
changes in conductivity/resistivity are found to be associated with
earthquakes. Dilation processes in the epicentral region may likely to be
responsible for the flow of hydrothermal fluids in and around the fault zone
(Fyfe et al., 1978; Sibson, 1992; Toutain and Bau- bron, 1999). The flow of
water has been confirmed from tomo-graphic studies (Zhao et al., 1996)
associated with the Kobe earthquake of January 17, 1995. Radon emissions
prior to numer-ous earthquakes have been observed around the world and Rn
anomalies are found to be related to the stress intensity factor and the strength
of the anomaly is found to be related to local con-ditions (rock type, stress
intensity, focal depth, ground water con-ditions). Matsuda and Ikeya (2001)
observed variations in nitric oxide and Yasuka et al. (2006) found atmospheric
Rn concentration change prior to the Kobe earthquake of January 1995, these
obser-vations show emissions of gases from the epicentral region. The Rn
anomaly is found within a range of 1000 km associated with the recent
earthquakes of magnitude equal to or more than four occur-ring in India
during November 2005–October 2006 (Ghosh et al., 2007). The need for
setting up multi parameter station networks and the simultaneous recording of
the external parameters such as atmospheric pressure, water and air
temperature and soil mois-ture have been stressed earlier by Toutain and
Baubron (1999). Re-cently, Omori et al. (2007) have found anomalous
emanation of Rn prior to the Kobe earthquake and found that these changes
may be related with the observed changes in atmospheric electric field and
ionospheric disturbances. The flow of water and emanation of ra-don and
further changes in the atmospheric electric field and ion-ospheric disturbances
associated with the Kobe earthquake of 17 January, 1995, all show
complementary behavior suggesting that the ground observed, and
atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies have close linkage. Radon precursory
signals have been found for the Himalayan earthquakes (Walia et al., 2005,
2006). Continuous measurements of Rn concentrations are being made on one
of
the seismically active regions of Turkey (Marmara region) (Inan et al., 2008)
and Taiwan (Yang et al., 2005) that have shown a close relationship with the
seismic activities. Since late 2002, a continu-ous monitoring network has
been installed in Tuscany (Italy) which has shown variations in various
parameters and also dis-solved CO 2 and CH4 prior to earthquakes. The
changes in observed anomalies are found to be associated basically with the
groundwa-ter circulation pattern related to seismic activities. However, due to
the absence of seismic activities, emission of CO2 and CH4 is not yet
established (Cioni et al., 2007). For such observations of multi parameter
(CO2, CH4, N2, and H2O) automatic gas stations have also be established in
southwestern Taiwan. Anomalous variations from a few days to a few weeks
before an earthquakes of magni-tude (>4) have been found (Yang et al.,
2006). A close relationship of Rn anomalies with changes in groundwater
pressure have been found (Einarsson et al., 2008). Ionospheric anomalies
prior to earthquakes have been observed throughout the globe (Liu et al.,
2000, 2001; Dabas et al., 2007; Dutta et al., 2007; Sharma et al., 2007). These
independent observations show linkage with geo-chemical observations, and
with atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies, and it is believed that such
anomalous observations prior to an earthquake may show complementary
behavior.
5. Observed MOPITT carbon monoxide
Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) was launched
onboard the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra satellite in
December 1999 funded by the Canadian Space Agency and manufactured by
COM DEV of Cambridge, Ontario (Drummond and Mand, 1996). The
MOPITT instrument is onboard the Terra spacecraft launched on 18
December, 1999, which is flying in a po-lar sun synchronous orbit at an
altitude of 705 km and measures CO and CH 4 in the troposphere. The basic
measurement type em-ployed by MOPITT is infrared radiometry. The
MOPITT dataset con-tains CO total column amount, CO mixing ratios at six
altitudes (850, 700, 500, 350, 250 and 150 hPa) and the corresponding loca-
tion and time along the track. The CO signals are measured with a horizontal
resolution of 22 km and a vertical resolution of 3 km with a precision of about
10%. Here, MOPITT level 2 version 3 CO data is used
(http://mopitt.eos.ucar.edu/mopitt/data/index.html). The calibration and
retrieval algorithm of this version is discussed in detail by Wang et al. (1999)
and Deeter et al. (2002). MOPITT provides the first continuous and
comprehensive long-term global measurements of CO levels in the
troposphere. In the present
Fig. 3. Brightness temperature variations using 85 GHz horizontal polarization in
descending mode, (a) for the year 2001 and (b) for the
months of January and February, 2001.
 R.P. Singh et al. / Applied Geochemistry 25 (2010) 580–585 583

Fig. 4. Brightness temperature variations using 85 GHz vertical polarization in descending

mode, (a) for the year 2001 and (b) for the months of January and February, 2001.

study, the MOPITT CO data has been used. MOPITT generates atmo-spheric
profiles and column CO using 4.7 and 2.4 lm wavelengths, respectively. Each
day, the MOPITT instrument makes two passes one in the day and other in the
night. In the present study, MOPITT Level 3 (MOP03) daily data observed
during day time has been considered (Bhattacharjee et al., 2007). The
MOPITT Level 3 (L3) data product is averaged from the Level 2 data onto a
global 1 1 degree grid and data is archived using HDF-EOS grid struc-ture.
Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) is a disk-based format chosen by NASA for
Earth Sciences data structures.

Geolocation fields are provided for latitude, longitude and pressure level.
Level 3 data is available daily and monthly and the unit of CO is in ppbv.
Data has been downloaded from EOS Data Gateway (EDG)
(http://nsidc.org/ims-bin/pub/nph-ms.cgi?end-
form=1&u=1292&SESSION=&mode=MAINSRCH). The EOS Data
Gateway (EDG) is the primary interface to all data available with the NASA
Earth Observation System Data Information System, and related data centers.

6. Results and discussion
Figs. 3 and 4 show brightness temperature variations at 85 GHz frequency
in horizontal and vertical polarizations for the descend-ing mode. In Figs. 3a
and 4a, brightness temperature variations for the whole year of 2001 are
shown. In Figs. 3b and 4b, variations of brightness temperature are shown for
the months of January and February. The dotted line shows the day of the
earthquake event i.e. 26 January, 2001. A sudden drop in brightness
temperature about two days prior to the main earthquake event is clearly seen
(Figs. 3 and 4). The observed brightness temperature is found to be higher in
vertical polarization compared to horizontal polarization. The horizontal and
vertical polarizations are sensitive to the changes in vertical and horizontal
directions, respectively. The brightness temperature is the product of
emissivity and tempera-ture, which are the effective emissivity and
temperature of the earth surface and atmosphere. An anomalous increase in
bright-ness temperature prior to the earthquake is observed in both the modes
showing a complementary nature. The brightness tempera-ture is measured in
seven channels by the Special Sensor Micro-wave/Image (SSM/I). Four
frequencies are orthogonally polarized passive microwave radiometric
instrumental systems flown on-board Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) satellites. The satellite coverage is possible twice a day with
little gap though, approximately 12 h apart, on the ascending and descending
passes,
Fig. 5. (a) Variations of total column CO for the period January–February, 2001, main
earthquake event occurred on January 26, 2001. (b) Variations of CO at different pressure levels
for the period January–February, 2001, main earthquake event occurred on January 26, 2001. A
large peak in CO concentrations is observed at 850 and 1000 hPa pressure levels around January
19/20, 2001.
respectively around local 6.00 am in the morning and 6.00 pm in the evening.
Since the observed brightness temperatures are the effective brightness
temperature of the coupled earth surface and atmosphere system, the observed
brightness temperatures may be sensitive to changes in land, meteorological
conditions and atmosphere. It is difficult to pin point the change in brightness
temperature if it corresponds to the earth surface or to the atmo-sphere or
related to meteorological conditions associated with the earthquake. The
changes observed in brightness temperature prior to the earthquake event in
horizontal and vertical polariza-tions show one to one correspondence with
the changes in land surface temperature and in Surface Latent Heat Flux
(SLHF) (Dey and Singh, 2003) confirming the complementary nature.
Further, Singh et al. (2001b, 2006) have found anomalous changes in chlo-
rophyll concentrations a few days prior to the main Gujarat earth-quake event,
that also show complementary nature, indicating a close linkage between land
and the adjacent ocean.
Fig. 5a and b shows variations of CO deduced from the MOPITT satellite
during day time. The total column CO during day time is shown in Fig. 5a.
On January 19, 2001, higher total column CO
584 R.P. Singh et al. / Applied Geochemistry 25 (2010) 580–585
concentrations (Fig. 5a) is found prior to the earthquake. The CO
concentrations at different pressure levels (1000, 850, 700, 500, 350, 250 and
150 hPa) are shown in Fig. 5b. A sudden increase in CO concentrations during
day time is observed at 700, 850 and 1000 hPa, with anomalous changes in
CO concentrations on the ground that correspond to 1000 hPa (Fig. 5b). Such
changes are also seen during night time (not shown here). At low pressure
lev-els, CO concentrations are found to be stable since the low pressure
corresponds to higher altitude, that clearly shows that the stress build up prior
to the earthquake may have influenced the hydro-logical regime in the
epicentral region responsible for the emission of the gases influencing the
skin temperature of the earth surface recorded by MODIS IR sensors ( Dey
and Singh, 2003; Ouzounov and Freund, 2004). After the earthquake on 26
January, 2001, the total column and concentrations of CO drop at different
altitudes which are quite obvious from the observed intensive liquefaction and
oozing of the water in the form of fountains after the earth-quake (Singh et
al., 2001c).
The increase of column CO and concentrations of CO at 1000 and 850
hPa on 19 January, 2001 may have enhanced the land sur-face temperature, as
a result an anomalous land surface tempera-ture is found a few days prior to
the earthquake and obviously after 19 January, 2001. Prior to the earthquake
event, release of gases and oozing of water is also observed ( Gupta et al.,
2002) that supports the enhancement of CO and also changes in atmospheric
parameters using satellite data (Okada et al., 2004). The enhance-ment of CO
concentrations and land surface temperature normally influence the
meteorological conditions. Changes in water vapor soon after the earthquake
event are observed, such changes can influence the total electron content in
the ionosphere as observed by Trigunait et al. (2004).
7. Conclusions
The present results based on satellite remote sensing data show changes of
land and atmosphere parameters prior to the main Guj-arat earthquake event.
Trigunait et al. (2004) observed changes in the ionosphere related to the
Gujarat earthquake. The observed changes on the land and atmosphere
showing a complementary nature with the changes observed in the ionosphere
by others, pro-vide strong evidence to believe the existence of coupling
between lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere. Such coupling is plausible only
when the hydrological regime is disturbed due to changes in the stress regime
in the epicentral region prior to the earth-quake. The changes in hydrological
regime are likely the source for the changes in effective pore pressure near the
Earth’s surface. It is believed that during the Gujarat earthquake, the
anomalous changes in CO concentrations prior to the main earthquake event
and enhancement of IR temperature of the earth surface observed from
MODIS satellite data give an indication of such coupling. Such changes may
alter the atmospheric water vapor which is also ob-served from the satellite
data during the Gujarat earthquake (Dey et al., 2004) that may have further
perturbed the ionosphere. All these observations show complementary
behavior and provide evidence to the scientific community for believing the
existence of strong coupling between land, atmosphere and ionosphere. A
close network of various land, atmosphere and ionospheric param-eters are
required in seismically active regions for getting an early warning of an
impending earthquake and further support for such coupling.
Acknowledgments
RPS and JZ are grateful to the Indo-French Centre for the Promo-tion of
Advanced Research (IFCPAR) for financial support in the
form of a research project. Senthil Kumar J. was supported by IFC-PRA. A
part of the work is the M.Tech. Thesis submitted by Senthil Kumar J. at the
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, India. RPS is grateful to T.Y. Frank for
inviting RPS to present the work contained in this paper at the ICGG9 held in
Taipei, Taiwan. We are grateful to the anonymous referees for their
comments/suggestions that have helped us to improve the original version of
the manuscript.
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