Economic Outlook 2018

Navigating Through Global Quantitative Tightening

28 September 2017

Anton Hendranata Wisnu Wardana Dian Ayu Yustina

Chief Economist Economist Economist
anton.hendranata@danamon.co.id wisnu.wardana@danamon.co.id dian.yustina@danamon.co.id
+6221 80645208, ext. 8867 +6221 80645208, ext. 8873 +6221 80645208, ext. 8875
Rentetan krisis ekonomi dunia & pelonggaran
moneter yang agresif

Economic Crisis QE (USD) 2016 GDP Policy Rate Real IR

US 3Q08 - 4Q09 Nov 08-Oct 14 4.5 tn (24%) 18.5 tn 1.25 -0.45
Japan 2Q - 3Q11 Agt 11-Jul 17 3.5 tn (71%) 4.9 tn -0.10 -0.50
EU 1Q12 - 2Q13 Mar 15-Jul 17 2.1 tn (18%) 11.9 tn 0.0 -1.4
Japan 2Q14 - 1Q15
Russia 3Q15 - 4Q16 1.3 tn 9.0 4.6
China Slowing, 2Q11 11.1 tn 4.45 2.65
Brexit Jun-16 Mar 09-Agt16 0.7 tn (27%) 2.6 tn 0.25 -2.35

2
Wajah Perekonomian Global

3
Perekonomian dunia stagnan

China

US Japan

Euro
area

4
Demografi Menghambat Potensi Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi

Indonesia

World

US
China

Eropa
Japan

5
Proteksi Perdagangan Dunia Meningkat

6
Perdagangan Global Stagnan 10 Tahun
Terakhir

7
Ketidakpastian Tinggi: Ekspektasi > Aktual

JPN

US

Economic Surprise Indices EUR

CNY

Source:Bloomberg

8
Kenaikan Suku Bunga di Des 2017?

% 21-Jul 22-Aug 15-Sep

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Fed BoC BoE ECB

Source:Bloomberg

9
Proyeksi Perekonomian Global 2018

Global Growth Forecast Global Trade Outlook

8
7.2
India 7.7 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
7.1
China WTV* 2.6 2.3 4 3.9
6.9 6.7 6.7
ASEAN5 6.4 Adv. Econ 4 2.3 3.9 3.5
5.1 5.2
Emerging Econ 0.3 2.2 4.1 4.6
4.9 4.9
Commodity Price
2.6
2.1 US 2.1 Oil 42.8 51.9 52
1.6
2 1.8
1.9 Euro Area Non Fuel** -17.5 -1.8 5.4 -1.4
1.7
1.3
1.1 1 Japan *average growth rates of export and import volumes
0.6
2015 2016 2017F 2018F **average growth based on exports weights
Source: WEO July 2017

10
Trump: Konsisten Untuk Tidak Konsisten

Policy Health Care Low Interest Rate

Fed is keeping rates

Repeal and cover artificially low and
Initial Stand
everybody creates a false
economy

Post Presidency 1 “I Like the Mandate” “USD is too strong”

Not everyone will be Prefers the Fed to + other 32 policies

Post Presidency 2
covered keep rates low (taxes, min wages, debt,
climate change, immigration,
muslim ban, defeating ISIS, etc.)
Replace it with Low interest rates
Current Position
something are good

Market “risk-on”
Core PCE Inflation
sentiment, IDR bond
Economic Impact thus Fed Fund Rate
yields dropped by
trajectory
7bps on 13 Apr

Source: NBC News

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/full-list-donald-trump-s-rapidly-changing-policy-positions-n547801

11
Pemulihan Ekonomi US Relatif Terbatas

US GDP growth (%yoy)

US Leading Economic Indicator

(%yoy)

Source: Bloomberg
12
Pemulihan Ekonomi US Relatif Terbatas

US Labor Force (%) US Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: Bloomberg
13
Pemulihan Ekonomi US Relatif Terbatas

US Inflation (%yoy) US Average Hourly Earning (%yoy)

Source: Bloomberg
14
Pemulihan Ekonomi US Relatif Terbatas

US REER US Export (%yoy)

Source: Bloomberg
15
Pemulihan Ekonomi EU Agak Stagnan

EU GDP growth (%yoy)

EU Leading Economic Indicator

(%yoy)

Source: Bloomberg
16
Pemulihan Ekonomi Jepang Masih Lemah

Japan GDP growth (%yoy)

Japan Leading Economic Indicator

(%yoy)

Source: Bloomberg
17
Pemulihan Ekonomi China Melambat

China GDP growth (%yoy)

China Leading Economic Indicator

(%yoy)

Source: Bloomberg
18
Perekonomian Domestik – Driver Utamanya
Konsumsi RT, Tapi Stagnan

7 %yoy
6.17 6.03
6 5.56 4.88
5.01 5.02 5.01
5 5.01
2.9
4 2.7
1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7
3
2
2.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
1
0
-1
G Net X I C GDP
-2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q17 2Q17
Source: BPS, CEIC, Danamon calculation
19
Perekonomian Domestik – Kontribusi Industri
Manufaktur Menurun

7 %yoy
6.17 6.03
6 5.56
5.01 4.88 5.02 5.01 5.01
5 0.2
0.3
0.4 0.3
4 0.3 0.2 0.2
0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2
3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5
0.6
0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7
2 0.7 0.7
0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9
1 0.4 0.5
1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q17 2Q17
Accommodation, Food&Bev Financial, Insurance
Transportation, Storage Information, Communication
Construction Wholesales, Retail Trade
Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries Manufacturing
GDP
Source: BPS, CEIC, Danamon calculation
20
Daya Saing Makin Membaik

Peringkat 54 (2007)  membaik menjadi 41 (2016)

Source: BI, World Economic Forum – The Global Competitiveness Report 2016 -2017
21
Kemudahan Berusaha (Ease of Doing Business)
Makin Membaik

Source: MOF, World Bank – Doing Business 2017 Report

22
Kepercayaan Rakyat Kepada Pemerintah
Tertinggi di Dunia

2016
2007

Source: OECD

Source: BPS, CEIC, Danamon calculation

23
Reformasi Struktural – Mendorong Daya Beli &
investasi

Source: MOF

24
Belanja Pemerintah Makin Produktif

Source: MOF
25
Indonesia Tempat Investasi Menarik

26
Return Investasi di Indonesia

Bond Real Return (%)

Sovereign
2015 2016 2-Jul-17

US 1.54 0.38 0.35

UK 0.74 -1.60 -2.35
France -0.27 -1.22 -0.90
Germany -0.44 -2.44 -1.80
45%
Japan -0.19 -0.66 -0.50 40% Indonesia Bonds Foreign Ownership
China 1.03 0.59 2.65 35%
(Rp 196 trn)
30.5 37.5
India 2.04 2.97 3.60 30% (Rp 666 trn)
25%
South Korea 0.51 0.18 -1.35 20%
Singapore 2.17 1.35 -0.60 15%
7Sep17 = Rp
791.5trn (39.1%)
Malaysia 0.80 1.85 -0.20 10%
7.8
Thailand 2.62 0.61 1.20 5%
(Rp 31 trn)
Philippines 2.39 1.36 1.10 0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Indonesia 5.58 5.06 0.68
Source: Bloomberg, Danamon Calculations

27
Arus Modal Asing Terkonsentrasi di Obligasi

Fund Flow Equity Bond Total

USD mn Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-16 Aug-17

Japan (59,102) (1,582) 48,813 28,379 (10,289) 26,797

Philippines 1,025 496 (300) 727 725 1,223

Indonesia 2,875 38 7,882 8,955 10,757 8,993

South Korea 8,089 7,215 9,786 27,811 17,875 35,026

Thailand 3,292 69 10,437 6,147 13,730 6,216

India 6,108 7,163 (1,329) 19,891 4,780 27,053

Source: Bloomberg, Danamon Calculations,

28
Rupiah Relatif Stabil

29
USD Menguat Sejak 2011, 2017 Melemah

IDR/USD Dollar Index

30
Bonds Yield Turun Signifikan, Waspada
Pembalikan

IDR/USD Bond 10yr

31
 Harga Komoditas Ekspor Masih Lemah

Coal Ric Bay $/MT Palm Oil RM/metric ton

90 3000
85.6 2,933
85 2900
79.5 2800
80
74.9 2700 2,640 2,650
75
2600
70
2500
65 2400
4Q16 2017f 2018f 4Q16 2017f 2018f

Nickel $/MT
11,000
10,796 Iron Ore $/MT
10,800 70
68.1
10,600 68
66.0
10,400 66
10,203 64
10,200 10,047
62 61.0
10,000
60
9,800
58
9,600
56
4Q16 2017f 2018f
4Q16 2017f 2018f
32
 Harga Komoditas Impor Naik

Oil - Brent $/BBl

53 Steel $/ST
650 628.5
52.5 622.8
53
52 600

52
51.4
51.1 550 525.9
51
500
51
50 450
4Q16 2017f 2018f 4Q16 2017f 2018f

Gold $/t oz
1,280 1,268
1,260 1,253

1,240
1,217
1,220

1,200

1,180
4Q16 2017f 2018f
33
Pelemahan Ekonomi Mungkin Sudah di Titik Terendah

• Ekonomi tumbuh terendah pada tahun 2015 di level 4.9%. Kemungkinan pemulihan
berbentuk U (U-shaped recovery).
• Pertumbuhan investasi diharapkan menjadi motor pendorong perekonomian, selain
konsumsi.
• Indikator Net Other Income (FDI + Exports) telah menunjukkan peningkatan (rebound),
yang dapat diikuti oleh pemulihan konsumsi (dampak memiliki lag 2 tahun).

Growth Drivers Government’s Forecast

Real GDP (LHS) bps

yoy yoy Real Other Income %

6.5% Private Consumption 10% PCE Contribution 2Y Lag

6.2% 1.8
6.0% Expenditures
9% 3.0
6.0% Gross Fixed Capital
Formation 8% 1.4
5.6%
2.6
5.5% 7%
1.0
5.0% 5.0% 6%
5.0% 4.9% 2.2
0.6
5%
4.5% 4% 0.2 1.8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

34
Mendorong Investasi Bangkit
• Pemulihan ekonomi tahun-tahun ke depan
Government’s Forecast
diharapkan lebih didorong oleh bangkitnya
investasi, namun perlu peranan dari pemerintah, 2017 2018
seperti : Component
RAPBNP APBN
 Mempercepat distribusi Bansos, meningkatkan Private Consumption 5.1 5.1
belanja terutama pada infrastruktur Government Consumption 4.6 3.8
 Paket kebijakan ke-16 yang diumumkan pada Investment 5.4 6.3
31 Aug terfokus pada kemudahan dan
Exports 4.8 5.1
perampingan birokrasi untuk proses realisasi
investasi. Namun pemulihan investasi akan Imports 3.9 4.5
bertahap dan butuh waktu, tidak secepat GDP 5.2 5.4
perkiraan semula.
Focus of Government’s Budget

Poverty and Inequality Infrastructure Priorities Sectors Regional Funds

Rp 292.8 T Rp 409 T Rp 34.8 T Rp 761.1 T
Social Security Program Roads (856 km) Agriculture Share Allocation Fund
(increase from 6mn families Irrigations (781 km) Tourism (Rp 87.7 T)
to 10 mn families Electrification Ratio Fisheries General Allocation Fund
Health Services (95.15%) Rp398 T
Coverage of 92.4mn people Housing Specific Allocation Fund
Education Program (around (7,062 unit) Rp185.9 T
20mn scholarships) Village Funds Rp 60T

35
 Leading Economic Indicators - Indonesia

• Sebagian indikator ekonomi menunjukkan perbaikan di 2H17

Indicators Unit 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Trend
Consumption
Domestic Car Sales yoy -5% 11% -1% 18% 9% -28% 37% 0%
Domestic Motorcycle Sales yoy 3% -10% -8% -16% -16% -27% 76% 5%
Retail Sales Index yoy 11% 16% 11% 10% 4% 7% -3% 5%
Consumer Confidence Index yoy -6% 2% 13% 7% 11% 8% 8% 8%
Real M2 yoy 3% 5% 2% 7% 6% 7% 5% N/A
Fixed Investment
PMI bps 50.6 51.9 50.9 49.0 50.5 49.5 48.6 50.7
Cement Sales yoy 2% 2% -3% -3% 4% -27% 56% 9%
Imported Capital Goods yoy -28% -8% -11% -1% 19% -27% 61% 8%
Government Spending yoy 6% 12% 5% 4% 18% 3% 20% N/A
Trade Volume yoy -6% 9% 6% 3% 9% -14% 12% -20%

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17

Gross Domestic Product yoy 4.9% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1%
Source: BPS, BI, Danamon Calculation
Notes: Trend Aug-17 vs 3Q16

36
Proyeksi Perekonomian 2018
Ekonomi Global: Tahun
• Ketidakpastian pada kebijakan fiskal AS Real GDP Growth (%) 2016 2017F 2018F
dapat berdampak pada pertumbuhan
China 6.70 6.70 6.40
ekonomi yang lebih moderat.
US 1.50 2.10 2.30
• Fed kemungkinan akan melanjutkan
rencana pengurangan neraca moneternya, EU 1.90 2.00 1.80
diikuti oleh kebijakan pengetatan moneter Japan 1.00 1.40 1.00
namun dengan skala yang lebih moderat. Source: Bloomberg
• Ekonomi China mungkin akan terus
melambat US - O/N policy rate (% p.a.) 0.75 1.50 2.00

Ekonomi Domestik: Indonesia

• Pertumbuhan ekonomi akan bergantung Real GDP Growth (% yoy) 5.02 5.04 5.27
pada pemulihan investasi dan belanja Consumer Price Index (% yoy) 3.02 3.65 3.43
pemerintah.
BI 7D RR (% p.a.) 4.75 4.25 4.00
• Belanja pemerintah dapat meningkat akibat
penyelenggaraan Pilkada di 2017 dan
O/N Deposit Facility rate 4.00 3.50 3.25
Pemilu di 2018 dan 2019. FX Rate (IDR/USD) – Average 13,309 13,349 13,514
• Inflasi terkendali dan respon suku bunga FX Rate (IDR/USD) – Year End 13,417 13,430 13,536
minimal. LPS Rate 6.25 5.75 5.50
• Pemulihan ekonomi mungkin berimbas
tekanan pada defisit transaksi berjalan Loan Growth (% yoy) 7.90 9.71 11.07
(CAD) dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Third Party Fund Growth (% yoy) 9.60 8.90 10.89

37
APPENDIX

38
 Pembiayaan Infrastruktur
2017 2018
Items
APBNP Outlook RAPBN
I. Economic Infrastructure 390.3 377.8 395.1
through Ministries 157.1 146.9 161.2
1. Ministry of Public Works and Housing (toll roads, bridges ) 101.5 100 104.2
2. Ministry of Transportation (rail tracks, airports, seaports, LRT Jakarta, Palembang) 40.8 33.5 44.2
3. Ministry of Agriculture (irrigations and dams) 2.5 2.5 1.4
4. Ministry of Human Resource 3.1 2.3 2.8

through non Ministries 6 6 3

1. Viability Gap Fund 0.5 0.5 1.2
2. Grant 5.4 5.4 1.4

through transfers to regions and village funds 180.9 178.6 182.8

1. Specific Allocated Funds 32.3 30.6 33.9
2. Village Funds for Infrastructure 24 23.3 24
3. Regional Transfer Funds for Infrastructure 121.2 121.2 120.9

through Financing Scheme 46.2 46.2 48.1

1. Housing facility (i.e. one million house program/interest rate subsidy) 3.1 3.1 2.2
2. Capital Injection to SoE 9.6 9.6 6.1
3. Fund to Public Services Institutions (Hospitals, 32.1 32.1 35.4

II. Social Infrastructure 8.2 8.1 9

1. Ministry of Education and Cultural 5.6 5.6 5.8
2. Ministry of Religion 2.6 2.5 2.9
3. Ministry of Health 0.3

III. Infrastructure Support 2.6 2.4 4.9

1. Ministry of Land (BPN) 0.2 0.2 2.8
2. Ministry of Industry 0.4 0.4 0.2

Total 401.1 388.3 409

39
40
Referensi artikel – Anton Hendranata
1) Kompas, 21 Nov 13: “Suku Bunga”
2) Kompas, 26 Jun 14: “Rupiah dan Pertumbuhan”
3) Tempo, 14 Nov 14: “Relying on Invesment For Growth”
4) Kompas, 13 Dec 14: “Mewujudkan Pertumbuhan 7 Persen”
5) Kompas, 27 Dec 14: “Ancaman Utang Luar Negeri Swasta”
6) Kompas, 16 Jan 15: “Minyak dan Era Perekonomian Baru”
7) Kompas, 28 Feb 15: “Optimisme APBN Perubahan 2015”
8) Kompas, 13 Mar 15: “Psikologis Rupiah”
9) The Jakarta Post, 31 Mar 15: “Additional Oxygen from the FED Rate Policy”
10) Kompas, 30 May 15: “Mengapa Kita Pesimistis”
11) Kompas, 23 Jul 15: “Dilema Suku Bunga”
12) Kompas, 24 Aug 15: “Ancaman Tiongkok”
13) Tabloid Kontan Mingguan, 14 Sep 15: “Membalikkan Sentimen”
14) Kompas, 15 Sep 15: “Persepsi Negatif dan Kekuatan Komunikasi”
15) Kompas, 26 Nov 15: “Harapan Rupiah Stabil”

41
Referensi artikel – Anton Hendranata

16) Kompas, 2 Mei 16: “Embrio Suku Bunga Rendah”

17) Kompas, 13 Juni 16: ”Melarikan Diri dari S&P”
18) Kompas, 4 Juli 16: ”Pasca Brexit”
19) Kompas, 30 Juli 16: ”Pergantian Kabinet Jilid II”
20) Kompas, 13 Sep 16: ”Untungnya Pengampunan Pajak”
21) Kompas, 7 Okt 16: ”Amnesti Pajak vs Utang Swasta”
22) Kompas, 16 Nov 16: ”Meredam Ketidakpastian”
23) Kompas, 8 Mar 17: ”Proteksionisme Trump”
24) Kompas, 22 Mar 17: “Ketimpangan Perekonomian”
25) Kompas, 31 Mei17: ”Menata Perekonomian Indonesia”
26) Kompas, 27 Jul 17: ”Utang: Tabu vs Solusi”
27) Kompas, 9 Sep 17: ”Antibiotik Daya Beli”

42
Biodata Singkat

 Kepala Ekonom Bank Danamon, 2014 - sekarang

 Ekonom dan Ekonometrisi Bank Danamon, 2008 - 2014
 Dosen Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Indonesia, 1995 – sekarang. Beberapa kali sebagai
dosen terbaik di FEUI
 Asisten Pimpinan Magister Perencanaan dan Kebijakan Publik, FEUI, 2004 – 2008
 Peneliti di Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat, FEUI, 1992 – 2008
 Pengajar di diklat Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Keuangan, dan kursus profesi pasar finansial, seperti:
Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) dan Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).
 Penulis di koran: Kompas, Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan, Tempo, Investor Daily, The Jakarta Post dll.
 Nara sumber di instansi pemerintah (BI, OJK, LPS, Kemenkeu, Menko Perekonomian), swasta, & TV
 The top 3 of FX Forecaster, FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards 2017
 The best of FX Research and Market Coverage, Asiamoney FX Poll, 2014, bersama Tim Riset Ekonomi
Bank Danamon
 Research - Commended by the Assets Magazine 2014, bersama Tim Riset Ekonomi Bank Danamon di
Indonesia
 The Best Economist Forecasters bersama Tim Riset Ekonomi Bank Danamon di Indonesia, yang
dilakukan oleh Bloomberg Markets, 2012 – 2013
 Sarjana Statistika dan Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pertanian IPB, serta Doktor Ilmu Ekonomi FEUI

43
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