APMA 3100 - SPRING 2010 FINAL EXAM PAGE 2 1, Of the travelers arriving at a small airport, 60% fly on major airlines, 30% fly on privately owned planes, and the remainder fly on commercially owned planes not belonging to major airline. Of those traveling on major airlines, 50% are traveling for business reasons, whereas 60% of those arriving on private planes and 90% of those arriving on other commerially owned planes are traveling for business reasons. Suppose we select one person arriving at this airport, (a) (2 points) Find the probability that the person is traveling fa business. 8 plel= (Be) “2 Mis) +a) FoAlBAQ _ | SF | loo lon (b) (2 points) Find the probability that the person is traveling for business on a privately owned plane. - Pie. l= GE) te =| (©) @ points) Find the probability that the person arrived on a privately owned plane, given that the person is flying on a commercially owned plane. Piricl=(el (a) (@ points) Given that the person is traveling on business, what is the probability that the flight is on a private plane? _ ae Ple|el= PY _ [8 2129 PEI ex S08 |APMA 3100 - SPRING 2010 FINAL EXAM Pace 3 2. Ten percent of the engines manufactured on an assembly line are defective. Assuming that the number of engines manufactured is extremely large, answer the following (a) (2 points) If engines are randomly selected one at a time and tested, what is the probability that the first working engine will be found on the second trial? N=# af orgies Peled wend{ Dreet inchia ve Nis qeomebere. (081) > Pyed= (E\B) = | (b) (3 points) What is the probability that the third working engine will be found on or before the fifth trial? Math exaiiees dested wut 3b vorbis emge mis Bucol (3,9) > PHED=R OHO, 6) res NI EE lo {c) (2 points) Find the mean end variance of the number of trials on which the third working engine is found. E[MI= ay ~ oy . bo sce 3 (ve B loo a \ nyaee 2, 2 {e=2\ me ne fea} 4-P yrax] Ye =4- 5 \ Aety)ddy 4 - ie rey) dy ° t 4 5s yb =~ (ates sy 1-44 6 fe ° =4- 26-2) ~\ie| (c) (3 points) Find yP 4 OMENS Ha = la Gaylda = 424] = Ss)* ior feaAPMA 3100 - SPRING 2010 FINAL EXAM PAGE 6 5. In response to requests for information, a company sends faxes that can be 1, 2 or 3 pages in length depending on the information requested. The PMP of L, the length of one fax is 1/3 l=1 P= 4 Ng 0 otherwise For a set of four independent information requests: (a) (4 points) Find the joint PMF of the random variables X, Y and Z, the number of 1-page, ‘page and 3-page faxes, respectively. (b) (3 points ) In a group of em Ss what is the PMP of the number of 3-page faxes? Z is bimanael ( (4,8) Pte) (2) (eV © (c) (B points) Given that there are two 3-page faxes in a group of four, what is the expected mumiber of L-page faxes? p_-l=(.\ BS Es KZ ahet &, gin Ho, KS bora (2, 3) | ae => Elxl¢-2]~e-$ =APMA 3100 - SPRING 2010 Final EXAM PAGE 7 6. Let X and ¥ have joint PDF fale) = { 0 wore yet Let W=X+Y. 6 YT (a) (2 points) Find the range of W. oO. l Syst [oth a (b) (6 points) Find the CDF of W. ey t + t —> aA . Orsnet dys oie BALas y= = ef, Fan V aytee te minnie [Edt ok 6 6 z = dw AztsS 34 @sseeds 4 ay A 7 ake = 2 Fy 4 \ \ daedyy = 1-\Gy BY dy =A +(Ly-Zyt) W/3 bs-y hfs BE ~ 42-2 ,1,.2 Sd we $3 peas apo byt ° W<6 get ge osissA => A) = L . Fs ) w-$-5h A ETx)= \a\ od Vee Xa a.2 {#| aS ' (b) (3 points) Find Var[P,(A)] \be PCN Noe [Ma (x5) = ar [xahe dn (c) (4 points) Use the Chebyshev inequality to find the confidence coefficient I~ a such that Pi(A) is within 0.1 of P[A]. In other words, find a such that P[|Pivo(A) — PIA] < 0.1] > 1- a Vee TF @s] a APE 7 Se | = rite i wl A = gone’ a Yoo [a => \-K “| joo = nels odce foe: tet => ya IAPMA 3100 - SPRING 2010 FINAL EXAM Pace 9 8, (5 points) Let K’ be the number of heads in n = 200 flips of a coin. Devise a significance test for ‘the hypothesis #7 that the coin is fair such that the signifcance level is a = 0.05 and the rejection sot M has the form {|K — B[K]| > }. Use the Central Limit Theorem. Hy rca is Barz be, Kis Bernanltr (a0, t\=pE[I= lop wane: PLL Sere at od WSEI= 50 eienelecl = Pe ateres te, Ne re £45 cx) and PLSREE AEE |= 8 B(Ee)— 4 Bons Pa (EaPorts => egelte =p coZzisa =e calt Tr eoskeltt, ce coi 18 FR Iscth 95% proeelihty . 9. {5 points) The duration of a data telephone call is an exponential random variable D with E{D| = 5 minutes. The duration of a voice call is an exponential random variable V with ElV| = fy > 5 minutes. The null hypothesis of a binary hypothesis test is Hy: a call is a data call. The alternative hypothesis is H: a call is a voice call. The probability of a data call is PD] = 0.65 and the probability of a voice call is P[V] = 0.35. A binary hypothesis test measures T minutes, the duration of a call. The decision is Hg if T < ty minutes. Otherwise, the decision is Hf. Design a MAP hypothesis test for when jy = 7 minutes. Clearly state your decision rules in terms of data and voice calls los dacbe coll —B'T U6 expshonterl (5) Hye Vera, col an expararteorl (Ve) Sg ® 52% ts PW ons 9 = ete = ee Trash) x att 5 PEAY 0:63 13 “2h al t< Bola) SeF 3 ele, conclude Heb dee call ig DATA; tes, ode Ahab He cal & Voice.APMA 3100 - SPRING 2010 FINAL EXAM Pace 10 10. ‘The following table gives Py,y(z,y), the joint probability mass function of the random variables X and Y, Prv(o.y) [y=0[y=1[y=2 c=—1 | 10 | 0] 1/0 oh z=0 | [470 0 6.4 z=1 ae ~o— | a0 Jo Ft 6% cpaceneyon 28 eteay «G8 EBs ot EHO) =1 er ot FOE) E Vor B= EDK \—(hyY = 8 726 = [E\ WeleE-(yy = S~t “3 ERIN) +O > 5 cay Yee Kiba = 6-5 = (Ol (b) (5 points) Find a* and 6, the optimum coefficients in the linear estimate X,(Y) = a"Y +0". aaloo ~=R.G= %2€ (1) -|5 |