EARTHQUAKES

A SELF-ORGANIZED
CRITICALITY ??

Vinod K Gaur
Indian Institute of Astrophysics
Bangalore 560 034
vgaur@iiap.res.in
 EARTHQUAKE KINEMATICS WELL UNDERSTOOD
SLIP ON A RUPTURE PLANE OR FAULT CAN BE SHOWN TO REPRODUCE
GROUNDMOTION RECORDS AT SEISMOGRAPH SITES ON THE EARTH’S SURFACE

BUT PHYSICAL PROCESSES RESPONSIBLE FOR

ITS DYNAMICS STILL OBSCURE
 THE EARTHQUAKE PROCESS
SYSTEM DRIVEN IN THE LONG WAVELENGTH LIMIT: ENERGY FED UNIFORMLY
ENERGY DISSIPATED IN BURSTS AT ALL LENGTH SCALES AND TIME (INTERMITTENTLY)
AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE IS SATISFIED BY
N(t) = [K/(c + t)p]: OMORI’S LAW
 THE EARTHQUAKE PROCESS
SYSTEM DRIVEN IN THE LONG WAVELENGTH LIMIT: ENERGY FED UNIFORMLY
ENERGY DISSIPATED IN BURSTS AT ALL LENGTH SCALES AND TIME (INTERMITTENTLY)
If the magnitudes associated with hypocenters occurring in
any random box over the globe are sampled for long
enough, the distribution will look like:
log10N(M≥m) ∝ – bm , N(S ≥ s) ∝ s – b : AN EMPIRICAL POWER LAW
EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES M ≥ m AND THEIR
FREQUENCIES, N(m): Log N(m) = a - b m

Left: Global earthquakes of M≥4

Right: Earthquakes in southern California
AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE IS SATISFIED BY
N(t) = [K/(c + t)p]: OMORI’S LAW
OMORI’S LAW GOVERNING RECENT(2009) JAPANESE
MW ~6.6 AFTERSHOCKS
N(t) = [K/(c + t)p] REQUIRE THAT c IS VERY SMALL AND THAT p = CLOSE TO UNITY
THUS, N(t) = [Kt-1] ANOTHER POWER LAW

K Richards-Dinger et al. Nature 467, 583-586 (2010) doi:10.1038/nature09402

 A TWO DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF AN EARTHQUAKE :
AN ARRAY OF SPRING COUPLED EQUAL BLOCKS PULLED
ACROSS A FRICTIONAL SURFACE

FREQUENCY-MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION OF SLIDER

BBLOCKS AND SAND-SLIDES YIELDED BY
COMPUTER MODELS, FOLLOW A POWER LAW
 EARTHQUAKE PHENOMENOLOGY
*EARTHQUAKES ARE SUDDEN SLIPS ON FRACTURED PLANES IN THE ROCK MASSES
OF THE EARTH’S BRITTLE OUTER LITHOSPHERE. THEY RELIEVE CENTURIES OF
ACCUMULATED STRAIN WITHIN A FEW TENS TO HUNDREDS OF SECONDS.

THUS, TWO VASTLY DIFFERENT TIME SCALES ARE INVOLVED .

*DESPITE VAST RANGE OF SPACE-TIME SCALES, EARTHQUAKES EXHIBIT SOME

STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT GENERIC PATTERNS:

1. magnitude distribution in time (Gutenberg-Richter law)

Log N(M>m) = a - b m, or, P>(E) = 10 –bm,
where b is statistically equal to unity but this universality is not easily established
2. Decay of aftershock numbers with time (Omori-Utsu law): N(t) = [K/(c + t)p],
where c is found to be very small and p close to unity

3. Earthquake epicentres cluster both in space (Long Correlation Scales) and time

4. Fracture planes in the earth’s lithosphere have been found to have a fractal distribution in common with
several other fragmentation products

5. slider blocks Model experiments also show self similar distribution both in space and time.

IS THERE SOME UNIFIED FRAMEWORK IN WHICH ALL THE

ABOVE FEATURES COULD BE UNDERSTOOD
HALLMARK OF SELF ORGANIZED CRITICALITY?
*THAT A LARGE, INTERACTIVE, OPEN SYSTEM SELF
DRIVES ITSELF TO A CRITICAL STATE OF MARGINAL
STABILITY: AN ATTRACTOR

*IN THIS STATE, THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN THE

RESPONSE OF THE SYSTEM TO A PERTURBATION AND DETAILS OF
THE PERTURBATION. AS IN EQUILIBRIUM SYSTEMS AT CRITICAL
POINTS (PHASE TRANSITIONS), ∴ NO CHARACTERISTIC SCALES
FLUCTUATIONS AT ALL SCALES POSSIBLE, CORRELATION LENGTHS & TIMES GO TO INFINITY

*SINCE A POWER LAW DISTRIBUTION IS THE ONLY ONE

*
THAT HAS NO CHARACTERISTIC SCALE (SCALE INVARIANT)

POWER LAW IS THE HALL MARK OF SOC

 THE LURE OF SOC

• THAT SIMPLE LOCAL RULES OPERATING

IN EXTENDED INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS
LEAD TO EMERGENCE OF COMPLEX
STRUCTURES AND PHENOMENA SUCH AS
THOSE EXHIBITING SCALE INVARIANCE

• FROM A STUDY OF COMPLEX

STRUCTURES AND PHENOMENA MAY WE
DISCERN THE SIMPLE OPERATING RULES
 AMBIGUITIES
SCALE INVARIANCE, SELF SIMILARITY & FRACTALS

• STRONG ANALOGIES BETWEEN SCALE INVARIANT

PROCESSES AND FRACTAL GEOMETRIES WHICH ARE SELF
SIMILAR AT DIFFERENT SCALES.
• ALSO, SOLUTIONS OF SCALE INVARIANT PROCESSES ARE
SELF SIMILAR AT DIFFERENT SPATIO-TEMPORAL SCALES
AND OFTEN PRODUCE FRACTAL STATISTICS AS THE
RENORMALIZED GROUP METHOD (EXPLICITLY SCALE INVARIANT)

• BUT WHILST FRACTALS ARE SELF SIMILAR THEY ARE NOT

FULLY SCALE INVARIANT (EXCEPT FOR A DISCREET SET OF
DILATATIONS)
SEARCH FOR A COHERENT FRAMEWORK TO
EXPLAIN EARTHQUAKE PHENOMENOLOGY
APPROACHES
ASSUME THAT THE MAIN SHOCK , AFTERSHOCKS AND THE FRACTAL
STATISTICS OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE ARE ALL DRIVEN
BY THE SAME LAW AND LOOK FOR SCALING FUNCTIONS THAT MAY
REDUCE THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL SPACE-TIME RELATIONSHIPS TO A
UNIVARIATE DPENDENCE

Guteberg-Richter Law: log10N(M≥m) ∝ – bm ,

m ∝ log s(energy) : N(S ≥ s) ∝ s – b
m ∝ log cM(seismic moment, c~ 1.5) and M ∝ A 3/2 (L3)
N(S ≥ s) ∝ (L-2b)
suggesting a fractal dimension of distributed seismicity df= 2b

COMBINING THE ENERGY (MAGNITUDE), RUPTURE AREA (LENGTH2)

AND THE FRACTAL DISTRIBUTION OF SEISMICITY), SUGGESTS A
SCALING FUNCT ION: X ∝ s – bLdf
 THE EARTHQUAKE PROCESS
SYSTEM DRIVEN IN THE LONG WAVELENGTH LIMIT: ENERGY FED UNIFORMLY
ENERGY DISSIPATED IN BURSTS AT ALL LENGTH SCALES AND TIME (INTERMITTENTLY)
The distribution P S ,L (T) of inter-occurrence times T with magnitude greater than S. The solid
circles, squares, and triangles denote cutoffs m = 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The color coding
represents the linear size of cells: L = 0.25° (black), 0.5° (red), 1° (green), 2° (blue), and 4° (orange)
covering Southern California. For T < 40 s, earthquakes overlap, and individual earthquakes cannot
be resolved. This result causes the deficit for small T, so only intervals T > 38 s are considered.
Bak et al., 2002, Phys.Rev. Lett.
 First-return (inter-occurrence) time distributions
L = 1° and m = 2, 3, and 4. PS,L= 1 °(T) follows a power law
PS ,L = 1 °(T) ∝ T −αg1(TS-b)
THE OMORI LAW REGION INCREASES WITH m
First-return (interoccurrence) time distributions for L = 0.25° (black), 0.5°(red),
1°(green), 2°(blue), and 4°(orange) and m = 2 (s = 100).
The function follows a power law PS =100,L(T) ∝ T −α g2(TLdf)
THE OMORI LAW REGION DECREASES WITH INCREASING L
 The data in Figure 3 with T > 38 s, replotted with TαPS ,L(T) as a function of the variable
x = cTS−b Ldf, c = 10−4. The choice of the Omori Law exponent α ≈ 1, Gutenberg–Richter value b ≈
1, and fractal dimension df ≈ 1.2 allow all data to collapse onto a single, unique curve f(x).
f(x) is constant for x < 1, corresponding to a correlated, Omori Law regime
But decays fast for x > 1, associated with uncorrelated events