CHAPTER 10

SPECULATION, PROJECTION, AND BUSINESS / INVESTMENT IN ISLAM

Business and Investment in Islam

Business and investment is something that cannot be ensured the result because both are
activities that give subsequent relapse in the future which will come and it is difficult to ascertain.
In this case a lot of people who make something that would be definitely classified as usury. On
the contrary, made it would be not certain is gharar. Both of these activities are forbidden in Islam.
In legal uncertainty is encouraging people speculate where it is forbidden in Islam is considered
gambling.

The Speculation in Investment

There are some characters that make speculation in investment forbidden by Islam among
them (1) in capital market, speculator aims to get the gains usually done with efforts to fry share.
(2) The speculators to buy securities to get the benefits of short term. (3) Speculation is a game
with take advantage of legal uncertainty for the benefits of short term. (4) Speculation
increase unearned income for a group of people without any contribution. (5) Speculation is one of
the causes of the financial crisis with evidence of wall street crisis in 1929. (6) Mentally want to
quickly rich in speculation will cause the perpetrator justifies any without seeing the rule. Shari’s
ban should be implemented to prevent it.

Investment / Business Projections

Different from the gambling / speculation, projection / forecasting is expected about

something that has not yet occurred at the time will come and minimize the factor of uncertainty.
This is allowed by the Prophet Muhammad SAW because the projection / forecasting makes the
formulation of a plan is based on an approach that measured. Some bears projection techniques
including business projections with the average method, correlation analysis, simple regression
analysis, multiple regression analysis methods, decompositions, methods of BOX-JENKINS
(ARIMA), input analysis of the output and qualitative research.
The Implementation of Statistical Analysis for Projection

In the various techniques of this projection is based on the calculation of the statistical analysis
that can be used to help predict or projecting future results. For example we can know or projection
of sales forecasts in the next year to collect some data such as the number of years ago,
independent variables and dependent variables.