CHAPTER I6 eat ad Since He pbb lty of, weather femarrens 42 only dependent mm , ‘Tnokovion- property holds fr evolatin of Ke wanther “y 5) let o= Rah, I= char, ' @ The pe pis OPS Pepe a] 4 it to a yesterd. ae et be ineceased UY B28 UEESIEY yesterday 3 = deereased today But increased yesterday 4s decreased today and yesterday 4 2 4 1 40 4%, 0 fe, e Then P=P%e 21K) 9 t-8, 0 3) 0 a, © inks 4Lo a4 0 Ley \s ploparky defined as se tle. state space 15 Propanhy » Same today, chaupe yestnday) ad tomorten’s state will have ts second component cqual ta today’s First compencat eas - Yes, it can be formulated asa Markev Chain with the following 8 (27) states State [| toda, Lda. e | 2days age 1 2 i 4 os & s 8 These stats hawrmctuded all He Rfrmatiom needed fs -predat Eomayray's dackmaatach Weread eles vi Pab. 14.22 dreutt candidear Ha day before yrtiedey . which 163-1 a yo . ? So. Cok ek] * [eae ese] Pll = T 0.167 0.833 p20 . . = [ 6.167 0. O67 0833 [Se se aHeB(b) PC rate m days from naw} radn today) = Pa YH te probability at wall vain ‘tea wos, Perain nds from mew) = Py = 0.5-pu Thus. Pawois, Ps=0.0875 . Poso.0635, Rex 0.0885 (c? We fend R= ONT Tae 0.833 Obviowdy whew A Gres Cargo » roo of pir) appreeches te the ay pubis . “yy WS2UA) Lat doles 0 ond 1 dente. thet a 0 ond a | hase been recorded, ivedy - Pe Ut 4] where t ool @ ple ce ny 0.69) 0.904 The prbabiity haf 0. oy wend vecordea accusnfly 4 onef (oO pls pn “ wel 0.94 The probed Ut, i aff. 16.33 a) Transition Matrix, P = 0 05 6 09 O85 05 0 O05 0 0 o 05 0 O85 9 o 6 a5 0 os O05 0 0 os ¢ iby 0.062 ¢.312 0.156 0.156 0.312 0.312 6.062 0.312 0.156 0.156 5 = | 0.156 0.312 0.062 0.312 0.15¢ 01156 0.156 0.312 0.062 0.332 0.312 0.156 0-156 0.312 0.062 0.248 6.161 0.215 0.245 0.161 O.ie1 01248 0.161 0.215 0.215 ple = | 0.215 9,161 0.248 0.161 0.215 01215 0.215 0.161 0.248 0.161 1161 0.215 0.215 0.161 0.2481633 5) Ceour-yy 0.206 0.195 0.202 0.202 0.195 0.195 0.206 0.195 0.202 0.202 P20 = | 0.202 0.195 0.206 0.195 0.202 9.202 0.202 0.195 0.20€ 0.195 0.195 01202 0.202 01198 0.206 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 02 0.2 pa =] 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 G2 0.2 02 0.2 0.2 6.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 012 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 peo = | 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.2 0.2 0.2 02 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.2 © We cam oncidy iid out Tye Me My = Me = Ts 02 Wee! @lP has one recurrent communicating class: [0,4 2,3} () P has three communicating Classes: {0} is absorbing and, therefore, recurrent {1,23 is recurrent $32 i> transient ee {® P has one recurrent communicating class: {94235 th P has one recurrent communicating class: { % 4,23 eas This matrix hes three tommunicating classes; Gol} is recurrent {2} is transient {3,4} is reeurrent eae LOA cae are two chasses: There (S$ oe cla3$ So wa) SoneA§ and a3} ae evacy state has Het sant we * pection period. From the definition, Fron the definitions dy As pection » Ha pasiod Fer the states ix for 26 ws 2 aad the patod Fun Sa} is 2. Caase S0n,2/4bi5 Haasient ond X34 is fecotfent. by inspection, Has patod is 4. lo-3eaacery) Fen p= 2P xt, +p) % Rh +=] ° &: (Gap Sap) \es-e Must shew that ey for je Ol se) M satisfies fhe steady state equations 7 = Bytom jee em ane Saye Since 2 PFI for a}, this is casily verified, fol; Gince the chain is irreducible, apertodse and pose tive feurrent, this is the unigue Selution, O53 oes Mes, Teetve My» Tes Te 2 £ 202 The Senotyy state enltte alonty change Uf He probability per nang sts 1654 Run the OR courscesare alive coon, fod ‘T= 0.44b Te = 2.386 Ty 0264 which means He edly. stile markat: share for A and 8 ore 0348 endl 385 respectively : loss fo Mssume demand cecurs after the delivery: rok ed eB eR few 6 6 2 2 © aes 4 M6 ee 3/0 wa ste ee Pevylo ff la 4 4 6 Flo oe wt gk a Sho 8 oa tLe oe eo 4 2 8T to brtin145-5 (conto) to) TR ee > GIB, 6134, .134, 5198, 0041, 1g0, 1) (C) The sandy prbabiting shat a pint of blo ts tp be ecordedl = pfDeoy- Pf ake art = 04K 0N7A= 00696 (a) dbliveries Pleremny calico | = SF Phattery ef Deh we! = aspx ate) + 0.139 %0.l = 99656 16.56. tay Let Neve: 9 of advertize > P2 OPN thya Ye eg dyertiza 2 P ofva Ye Nlusy advertige [ms a] eo e Marketing Managers Proposal 5 P= wn UD) Never advertize => T= CFs V9) Always advertize > Re C¥s, Nw Marketing Manager's Proposal = 7 = (7a) Yn) (©) Never advertise 9 prfit= $xa+ gxe = Mugs odvatige profit = Lae gx «1 2 2g midi Proprsol > prof = EX2N+ 9X4 = 2S milldm So Ha best is to never adusthitt 5 paleo o-F16$-7 For a (5,5) policy with sea and 523, CK,» Dad “ff + LBTNI- KD + SO max§0,-2,0} for od 50 max{Ox- %..10 for %yu22 Tras Kio) + EL, DO] = 85-4 SoLH.5-2) P{OF;I] = 86.2 KO 3 Elels, yd] x 60 + 500 FC; -2) CLO AFH = 2 Kia)s EC (2,Do] + + sof 72) PUAcTYS H.R & KIM ELEGY =o baat G-MPED = FHT BOD 4 Again for a (2,3) policy, Kye Lm ee Ry ed for KeX to maw ERD OF fOr Ky it Se 1080 ISH 348 368 Pz |.c8> .1Bt [368 368 -2eY 366 aee 8 - 080 +184 368 368 Selving the steady state equations gives T,£040,0, +254, 2, 368, Hence, the long-run average cost ger ween is rye 282 FRG, = 30.37 16.5-6 Xe RIMM EKA DL Of for Meet * (mene per} fer eh +204 368 368 0 2 OBO By 38 So Pe) ey a8 ° + 080 184 368-368 Solving the steady state equations es 2.192, 2.285, =368, ~ Age les Dw e(22 Coxe) = omfet 20 48M HRMS =GAB Rew ees lo-&6, R b H=d, peo n=lo > pe o73? i Nn 20, p= 003 (b) Ms 065 , Me o1P2 , Ths 0038, Tes oi54 {O Lange rn average cost por period = 30, 000 My arige to 0 fay = Have: ty hener warran 7-2. 1s Reorder in ist. year YY as Reorder in and year B= Reorder % years or older o 1 2 8 of 1 0 »® 2 p. tore fo ~ gl.os 0 8 .% sho oe @ 4 {b) Probabitity manufacturer has to hener warranty =< feb Soot § ho t 965 of, Y shee fret -D5fo0 t OF t o fro TIS Fre bat ¢,,21 and £,520 => t,2 01 +99 he os oss 25.95% 16-10LG%). (a) 3 2 1 th. OO 2 2 2 Balance tows 1 Bm. = 27 Amys BM +22 3M = 2M 275 2a T WA Ms + T+ My =I (0 Sive then, we qe f * ve we gt me %, Tye Toe Meg 1e.§-2. 7 (a) States number of jobs at He took contr Oconto 6 @ @ nN RL © 4 4 4 (6) Srondy ste epattes Qt 47 Gms Wor 4% GMa = M+ 47; QM= 4m, Mot M+ +7G =| (0) We com essily qet T= ($8,875) ler