PHAN 1 _ GIG THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Phan | cia cudn séch danh cho nhing nha dau tu bat dau tiép can phan tich ky thuat. NGi dung phan nay trinh bay mét cach chinh xac cac khai niém va thuat ngi co ban cua phan tich ky thuat. Néu a biét vé phan tich ky thuat, ban nén bat dau véi Phan 2 (trang 45).2 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT LI PHAN TICH KY THUAT H6m nay t6i cé nén mua chimg khoan hay khéng? Ngay mai, tuan téi, hay nim tdi gid chtmg khoan sé nhuw thé nao? Ligu viéc dau tu sé tro nén dé dang hon khong Khi chting ta biét duge cau tra Idi cho nhimg cau hdi dudng nhu kha don gian nay? Néu ban doc cuén sich nay véi hy vong phan tich ky thudt sé tra Idi cho nhimg cau hoi trén thi t6i ¢ ring ban sé sm that vong. Tuy nhién, néu ky vong phan tich ky thuat sé gitp ban cai thién hoat d6ng dau tu thi tdi tin ring ban sé hai long. Déi nét vé phan tich ky thuat Nghe cé vé phite tap, nhung “ ‘phan tich ky thudt” chi 1a tén goi cla mét phuong phap phan tich dau tu rat co ban. Noi don gian, phan tich ky thudt la nghién ctru vé gid thong qua cdc dang 4 thi nhiim dau tur higu qué hon, Ngudn géc cia phan tich ky thuat hién dai xudt phat tir Ly thuyét Dow do Charles Dow phat trién vio khoding nim 1900. Charles Dow da déng gép rat nhiéu cho sir phat trién ciia phan tich ky thuat hién dai. Ly thuyét Dow tép trung cha yéu vao su bién dong cita gid, tao nén ting cho viéc phat trién mét phuong phdp phan tich dau tu hoan toan mdi. Du bat nguén truc tiép hay gidn tiép th Ly thuyét Dow, phan tich k¥ thuat bao gém mét sé nguyén ly co ban nhu gid dich chuyén theo xu huéng, gid phan anh moi théng tin, cde tin higu x4c nhfin va phan ky, khéi long phan Anh su thay d6i xu hung cua gid va ngudng hé tro/khing cy. Ciing nén luu y ring, chi Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) la mét thinh phan khéng thé thiéu cua Ly thuyét Dow. Yéu t6 con ngwdi Gid chimg khodn thé hién sy déng thudn. Dé 1a mire gid ma mét ngudi déng y mua con ngudi khic déng ¥ ban. Mite gid ma nha dau tur sin sing mua vao hodc bén ra phy thugc chu yéu vio ky vong. Néu ky vong gid ching khoan ting, nha dau tu sin long mua vao; con néu ky vong gia chimg khodn giam, ho sé ban ra. Nhing lip lun nghe 6 vé don gidn nay lai la théch thire Ién trong viée dy bio gid chimg khodn bi vi ching lign quan dén ky vong cia con ngudi. Nhu ching ta da biét, khéng dé gi cin dong do dém hoic dy bao ky vong ciia con ngudi. Chinh thuc té nay Lam cho cde hé théng giao dich ty dng khdng phai Itc nao cing hoat déng higu qua. Do cé lién quan dén con ngudi nén t6i tin ch’c ring nhiéu quyét dinh dau tw trén thé gidi dang dya trén cdc tiéu chi khéng phi hop. Méi quan hé véi gia dinh, hang x6m, nha tuyén dung, diéu kign giao théng, thu nh§p, nhimg thinh bai trong qué khir déu anh hudng dén niém tin, ky vong va quyét dinh cia ching ta.GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 3 Tir nha quan ly quy cho dén ba ndi trg, bac si dén sinh vien, ky su dén cong nhan, ludt su dén thy ho, ngudi giau dén ngudi nghéo déu c6 anh huéng dén gid chimg khoan. Déi tong tham gia da dang da khién thj trudng chira dung nhiéu yeu t6 bat ngé va hao himg béi ky vong cia nha dau tu thudng thay di tir thai cue nay sang thai ce kia. Phan tich co ban ca chiing ta déu hoan toan dya vao ly tri va khéng dé cam xtic tac déng dén quyét dinh dau tu cia minh thi khi d6 phan tich co ban - phuong phap dinh gi chimg khoan dya trén thu nhap dur phéng (xem trang 151) - sé dem lai higu qua rat cao. Boi vi ky vong ly tri ciia ching ta déu hoan toan gidng nhau, nén gia chtmg khoan chi thay d6i khi doanh nghiép céng bé bao céo tai chinh hode céc théng tin lién quan, Do 46, nha dau tu sé tim kiém cac théng tin co ban “chua duge danh gid dang mite” dé xc dinh chimg khoan nao bj dinh gid thip. Ladé tai duge ban luan rat s i, “Ly thuyét thi trudng higu qua” (xem trang 133) cho ring gia chtmg khoan thé hign' tat cd moi tha vé ching khoan dé tai mét thoi diém xdc dinh. Ly thuyét nay két luan rang khéng thé dy bao gia cta mt chimg khoan vi gia da phan anh day di moi thong tin. Dia vao qua khit, dy bao tong lai Néu ching ta cho ring gia chimg khoan duge xac dinh dya Bién so tén trong gid chiimg _trén ky vong cla nha dau tu, thi viéc biét ly do tai sao khodn chink la phan digg ching ta nén ban mot chimg khodn (thong qua phan tich co du/chiét khéu mi nha daw te yin) Khong cdn quan trong bang viée biét ly do tai sao céc cong/trie vao gid “hop Ii” eta 4 du tu khac lai mudn ban. Diéu nay khong c6 nghia 1a chieng khodn &. viée biét Iy do tai sao nén ban mot chimg khodn 1a khong SEZ quan trong. Tuy ohién, trong thuc té nha dau tr binh Toi tin riing wong tai chil hg ludn c6 chung ky vong vé mite sinh Idi cia mot se lap tai ea qua Khie bang sng khodn ma ban than ho khong giai thich duge. Bién m6t con ding khac. —Sir Arthur Wing Pinero, 1893 sé dn trong gid chimg khoan chinh la phan thing du/chiét khdu ma nha dau tr cOng/trir vao gia “hgp ly” cla ching khoan do. Phan tich ky thudt 1a qué trinh phan tich gid qua khir ciia chimg khoan nhdm dy bao gia tuong lai, théng qua vige so sinh bién dong gia hign tai (ttre 14 ky vong hign tai) voi bién déng gid trong qua khir dé c6 duge két qua hop ly. Qué trinh nay durge mét sé chuyén vién theo trudng phai phan tich ky thudt dic két thanh cau cira migng “Lich sit ty Lp lai”, trong khi nhitng ngwdi khac cho ring chting ta nén hoc hdi tir qua khit. Nha khi tuong hoc Nha dau tur str dung phan tich ky thuat dé dy bao gid tong ty nhw nha khi tuong hoc dya vao hién tugng théi tit trong qua khir va hién tai dé dy bao thoi tiét.GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Thong qua vige nghién ctu lung khong khi, dp sudt, nhiét do, do 4m khong khi 6 thi diém hign tai va trong qué khtt, mét nha khi tung hoc c6 thé dua ra dy bdo thoi tiét tuong déi chinh xdc trong tuong lai gan. Phuong phép nay mac dit khéng hoan hao vi théi tiét hay thay doi bat ng& nhung lai cé thé gia ting ding ké 4 chinh xde cia dy bio. That khé c6 thé dy bao théi tiét néu chiing ta déng cita lai va ngéi trong nha. Tey. nhién, néu buse ra ngoai troi voi m6t bire anh may | vé tinh thi tham chi mét Turong tyr, cfing si khong nim bat duge bién déng gia hign tai va qué khit. Tuy nhién, nha dau tue thé dua ra dyr bao tuomg ddi chinh xc néu dia vao céc théng tin co ban nhur xu huéng hién tai, gid cao nhdtthdp nhat trong qué khir, ngudng hé tro/khang cw, cing nhu khdi luong giao dich di OE oa ase kém voi bién dong gid. ee gid cet Giéng nh dur bao thai tiét, phan tich kj thuat cing SENOS Gree Se Khéng hoan hao nhung théng tin trén dé thj 1a mét cong cu ho tro quan trong cho qué trinh dau tu. Vong quay Roulette Theo kinh nghiém ctia toi, chi mot 86 rit it cac chuyén vién phan tich ky thuat cd thuat dé gidm thiéu rai ro va gia ting loi nhudn. Mot phuong thite khdc ma phan tich ky thuat co thé tro gidp hoat dong dau tw chinh 1a tham khao cach van hanh cua vong quay Roulette. Tdi chi str dung phuong thie nay trong mot chimg myc nhat dinh vi kha nang thang cia nhig ngudi danh bac thap hon nha dau tu chimg khodn - di chting ta dang phan tich dau tw nhung ciing cé thé 4p dung cach choi Roulette & day. Chu song kiém tién khong phai nho biét dugc két qua sip toi clia vong quay roulette ma bang cdch gia ting Igi thé thong qua viée thém vio hai 6: 0 va 00. Tuong tu, khi mua chimg khoan, mot nha dau tu khong biét chic chdn gia chtmg khodn sé ting. Tuy nhién, néu mua vao khi thi trvéng dang trong xu hudng tang, sau mét dot ching Dé la khi ching takhéng thé ban thio ngan va lai suat dang gidm, thi kha ning kiém loi dau covakhi ching tacé thé. ya nha dau tu a6 d& duge cai thién. Day khéng phai la co —Mark Twain, 1897 bac ma la sy hidu biét. Mac dai vay, nhidu nha dau tu chimg khodn vn mua vao ma khéng bao gid phan tich. Trai v6i suy nghi théng thing, chung ta khong nhat thiét phai ludn biét gid chimg khodn trong tuong lai mdi cé thé kiém di. Muc dich cita ching ta don gian 14 nang cao kha ning kiém Idi trong giao dich. Tham chi viGIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 5 Merck 29/10/93 254 25 205 20) 154 15 oP 10 nhing ky thuat phan tich don gin nhu xéc dinh xu huéng ngén, trung va dai han cia chimg khodn, ching ta van cé Igi thé nhat dinh trong giao dich. Quan sat dé thi cua cé phiéu Merck trong Hinh 1, gid rd rang dang trong xu hung gidm va khéng hé cé dau higu dao chiéu. Di trién vong Igi nhudn va cdc yéu t6 co ban ctia Cong ty nay cé thé rat tét, nhung viée mua vao chi hgp ly khi cé tin higu ky thuat cho thay gid dang thay déi xu huéng. Giao dich bang may tinh Néu cdm xtic va ky vong cia con ngudi déng vai trd quan trong trong viée dinh gid chimg khoan thi ching ta cing nén thiza nhn ring cém xic c6 vai trd quan trong trong viée ra quyét dinh dau tu. Nhiéu nha dau tu cé ging loai bd cam xtic khéi hoat dong dau tu bing cich sir dung méy tinh. ¥ twéng vé vige sir dung miy tinh théng minh cé thé giup ching ta dua ra quyét dinh dau tw 1a rét tha vi, giéng nh “Hal” trong 66 phim 2001: A Space Odyssey. That vay, hé théng giao dich ty déng c6 thé giup chiing ta logi b6 cam xtte khi ra quyét dinh. Chang han nhu, phan mém phan tich ky thuat ph MetaStock (duge sir dung dé vé tt ca cde d6 thi ong cudn sdch nay) cé thé kiém nghiém mét chién luge giao dich véi cdc théng sé diu vao nhu nguong mua/bén, phi giao dich va mtr sinh 1di ky vong, tir 46 phan mém sé nhanh chéng tinh todn tig giao dich6 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT va cho ra két qua 101/16 cy thé. Phan mém cing cé thé toi vu hoa cac nguong mua/ ban cita chting ta bang cach tu dong diéu chinh gia tri cac thong s6 dé nang cao hiéu qua dau tu. Tuy nhién, vi dang phan tich mot van dé thién vé cam tinh (ky vong va cam xtic clla con ngudi) nén ching ta phai cn than dé khéng bi hé théng ty dong lam cho ching ta twong rang minh dang phan tich mot van dé phi cam tinh. Diéu nay khOng cé nghia 1a chang ta phd nhan méy tinh 1a mot cOng cu phan lich ky thuat httu ich. Thue vay, may tinh la cng cy khong thé thiéu. Theo quan diém cia ca nhan t6i, phan mém phan tich ky thuat da hé trg dic luc cho nha dau ty binh thuong tiép cén phuong phap phan tich nay. Tuy nhién, timg la m6t ngudi phat trién cde cong cy phan tich ky thuat, t6i canh béo ching ta khong nén dé phan mém lim cho minh tin ring thj trudng 1a hyp ly va 6 thé doan truée duge. Hiéu 16 vé doanh nghigp, nganh nghé va mdi truong dau tu la yéu t6 quan trong. Thong tin trén Internet throng rat hap dn, nhung lung thong tin va tin dbn tran ng4p nhu hién nay sé khién nha dau tw béi r6i. Trong khi 46, mét dé thi don gian sé loai bé duge tinh trang nhiéu thong tin va cho thay mite gid “hop ly” cla chimg khoan. ee CAC THONG SO GIA Phan tich ky thuat gan nhu hoan toan dya trén phan tich gid va khdi lugng giao dich. Cac thong sé gié va khéi lugng giao dich cia chimg khoan duge giai thich nhu sau: Gia mé cira - La mite gid cia giao dich dau tién trong ky (vi du: giao dich dau tién cia ngay). Khi phan tich dit ligu hang ngay, gid mé ctta cé vai trd de biét quan trong vi day la gid da duge cdc bén lién quan déng thuin. GiA cao nhat - La mirc gid cao nhat ctia chtmng khoan trong ky. Day la mite gid cé nhiéu ngudi ban hon ngudi mua (tire 1a, ludn c6 nhiéu ngudi sin sang ban véi gid cao hon, nhumg mite gid nay la mite gid cao nhat m ngudi mua sn sing mua vo) Gia thap nhat - La mite gid thap nhat cia chimg khodn trong ky. Day la mite gid cé nhiéu ngudi mua hon ngwai ban (nghfa la, ludn c6 nhiéu ngudi sin sing mua 6 mic gid thap hon, nhung mire gid nay 1a mirc gid thap nhat ma ngudi ban sin sang ban ra). Gia déng cira— La khép cudi cing ctia chitng khoan trong ky. Gid dong ctra mang rat nhiéu y nghia va dugc sir dung phé bién nhat trong phan tich ky thuat. (én quan giita gia mo ctra (gid dau tién) va gia dong ctra (gia cudi cing) duge t cdc chuyén vién phan tich ky thuat coi trong. Méi lién quan nay duge thé hién r6 trong do thi hinh nén (xem trang 79).GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 7 Khii lwgng giao dich — La s6 Iugng cé phan (hay hop ding) duge giao dich trong ky. Méi lién quan gitta gié va khéi long giao dich rat quan trong (ching han nhur gid ting di kém véi sit gia tng ciia khdi hrgng). Hop ding phai sinh dang hru hanh — La téng sé hop déng con dang hu hanh (tire 1a nhimg hop déng chura durge thyc hign, cha déng trang thai hode chwa hét han) cia hop déng tuong lai hay quyén chon. Hop déng phai sinh dang hu hanh thurang durgc sir dung nhu mét chi bao (xem trang 232) Gia chao mua — La mitc gid ma mot nha dau te sn sang bo ra dé mua mét chimg khoan (tire Ia 1a mite gid ma ching ta sé nhan duge néu ban ra). Gia chao ban — La mite gia ma mét nha dau tu sin sang chap nhan ban (tite 1a mirc gid ching ta sé tra dé mua chimg khodn). . Cac loai théng so gid don gian nay duoc sir dung dé tao ra hang tram céng cu phan t tich ky thuat phuc vu cho viée nghién cttu mdi quan hé gitta gid, xu hudng, va mau hinh,...Khéng pha tat ca cdc théng sé gia nay déu co sin cho moi chimg khoan. Nhiéu nha cung cap dit ligu chtng khoan chi céng bé mot phan ac thong sé nay. Bang | biéu thi cdc thong s6 gia tiéu biéu thudng duge cong bé déi voi mot sé chimg khoan. Thong sé gia Hop dong twong lai Quytwonghd _Cé phiéu__ HD quyén chon| Gid mo cita co Khéng Thuong c6 © Gid cao nhat co Quy dong cé Gia thap nhat co Quy dong co Gia dong cira co C6 (*NAV) co Khéi long giao dich Cc Quy dong co HD phai sinh dang hru hanh C6 N/A N/A Thuong e6 Gia chao mua Trong ngiy Quy déng ——_Trong ngay Trong ngay Gia chao ban Trong ngiy Quy déng __Trong ngay Trong ngty * NAV: Gid tri tai sin rong Se DO THI DO thj la nén tang cla phan tich ky thuat. Trong truong hgp nay, mét hinh vé that su dang gid ngan tt.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Hewlett-Packard 2/9/99 1154 E115 1105 \ F 110 1055 W\ New F 105 1004 E100 6 E95 904 = 30 854 F 85 805 mp F 80 754 { E 75 704 E 70 664 E65 me Fe Be Bane aly Ragust ”Seplember Dé thi dang dwong (Line Charts) D6 thi dang dung 1A loai dé don gian nhat, Nhu da trinh bay trong d6 thi cia cé phiéu Hewlett-Packard Hinh 2, dung dé thi don migu ta gid déng cira hang ngay. Thdi gian dugc thé hién & truc hoanh va gia durge thé 6 truc tung. Uu diém cia 46 thi dang durég chinh la sy don gidn, qua d6 cho chiing ta cdi nhin théng sudt va dé hiéu vé gia chimg khoan. Dé thi dang duréng thudng sir dung gid dng cira. Dé thi dang c6t (Bar Charts) D6 thi dang cOt thé hign gid mé cita (néu c6), gid cao nhat, dong cira. DO th dang cOt 14 dang do thj chimg khoan pho bién nhat. ia thdp nhdt va gid Nhu minh hoa 6 Hinh 3, phan wén cling cia cot thé hién gid cao nhat cua chimg khoan trong ky. Phan dudi cing cia Ot thé hién mite gid thdp nhdt ca chimg khodn. Vach nam ngang phia bén phai ciia c6t biéu thi miic gid giao dich cudi cling trong ky ctia chimg khoan. Néu c6, gid mo cia sé duge thé hién bang vach ngang phia bén trai ct.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 9 1154 ; | r 15 110] | | | F 110 / Mat i ayaa ae “| I ' f * aif | L so Aa i bi_ bel 12 lo be pb b he 2 61320 Pugust eptember Thang do ban logarit va Thang do sé hoc Thang do truc tung ctia dé thi gia 6 thé duge thé hién theo hai cach sau. Thang do sé hoc, khoang cach gitta mdi diém 1a bang nhau va khéng phu thude vao gid tri cao hay thap. Vi dy, khoang cach gitra 1 va 2 1a bang voi khoang cach gitta 98 va 99. Thang do s6 hoc dtéi khi cing duge goi 1a thang do tuyén tinh. Thang do ban logarit, khoang cach gitta méi diém phy thudc vao gid tri cia nd. Vi du, khoang cach gitta 10 va 20 (cach 10 diém va ting 100%) bang voi khoang cach gitra 50 va 100 (cach 50 diém, nhung van ting 100%). Thang do ban logarit di khi con duge goi 14 thang do logarit hodc thang do ty 1é. Hinh 4 biéu thi chi s6 DJIA tir nam 1900 - 1999, Dé thj bén trén sir dung thang do trong khi d6 thi bén dui sir dung thang do ban logarit. Cha gid 6 d6 thi voi thang do sé hoc trong 6 vé “cao” hon nhiéu, trong khi d6 thi 6 duéi 6 thé cho thay mite gid sat vGi thyc té hon, nhung van con rat cao. Su khdc biét gitta thang do sé hoc va thang do ban logarit thé hién r6 nhat khi gid thay d6i manh tir mirc gan bang 0.10 GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Dow 1900-99 7 F 40000 Thang do sé hoc { | F 5000 ae ki Tiss0 seo" "fiero" Tige0hg80" | Dow 1900-99 ve s00 Thang do logarit yew" nner aly gq phe ey itemyeie Ly lime Figoo” "Hato" "Tazo" sso" Hao" 960960" Hg7d" Heo" i980" | Inprise 5/1/00 » + 20 18 r 18 10 | - 10 \ 5 aiaian Lg 150000 F-15000 100000 £10000 50000 E- 50000 0g FogGIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT ll Dé thi khdi lwong giao dich dang cot Khéi luong giao dich thuéng duoc thé hién bang dd thi dang c6t 6 phan dui cia biéu dd. Hinh 5 cho thay khdi luong giao dich cua cé phiéu Insprise tang nhu thé nao khi gia tang vot. Hinh 5 thé n khéi luong giao dich xuat phat tir mite 0 (zero-based). Diéu nay cé nghia 1a phan dudi cing cla mdi cét khéi luong giao dich co gia tri bang 0. Tuy nhién, phan lén cdc nha phan tich thich str dung khéi lugng giao dich diéu chinh tuong déi (relative~ adjusted) hon 1a khéi luong xuat phat tir muc 0. Khéi long giao dich diéu chinh duge tinh bang cach lay khéi lugng, giao dich cia cdc ky tri cho khéi lugng giao dich thap nhat trong ky. Cac cét khdi lurgng giao dich diéu chinh gitip ching ta dé dang quan sat xu hung ciia khdi long giao dich nho luge bo khdi lugng thap nhat hang ngay. Hinh 6 cho thay hai biéu d6 c6 cing thong sé khéi hrong giao dich. Biéu d6 phia trén thé hién khoi long giao dich xuat phat tir mirc 0 trong khi biéu 6 phia dudi thé hién khéi long giao dich diéu chinh, Ching ta cé thé thay biéu d6 phia dui thé hién nhiing thay d6i vé khdi Iwong giao dich mét cach r6 rang hon. Cac dang dé thi khac Gia chtmg khoan cing cé thé dugc minh hoa bang cac dang dé thi khéc nhw Candlestick, Equivolume, Kagi hay Point and Figure,... Cac dang nay s& durge giai thich 6 Phan 2 (xem tir trang 45). Khéi lugng giao dich | i | | i I Ng bs po he ps BI12 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT same KHUNG THOI GIAN Bat ké khung thdi gian cia dit ligu trong céc d6 thi la nhu thé nao (vi dy hang gid, hang ngay, hang tuan, hang thing,...) thi cdc nguyén tac co ban cita phan tich ky thugt vin kh6ng bj anh hudng. Hay xem xét ca dé thi cia c6 phiéu Bocing 6 Hinh 7, 8 va 9, cho di khung théi gian dao déng tir mi 5 phut dén hang tudn thi bién dOng gid vé co ban rat giéng nhau. Théng thong, khung thi gian cing ngn thi ching ta cing khé dy don bién déng gid va khé tim kiém loi nhuén. Nhiing khé khin xuét phat tir cde khung théi_ gian co hoi ngdin hon chinh la vige ching ta c6 it théi gian hon dé dua —Publius Syrus, Thé ky thir nhdt = T8 quyét dinh. truéc Céng nguyén HINH 7 7 Boeing 5 Phat 43°04] ‘ih L 3004 43°00 i r wad {I Lyhn if F 43°00 422-4 i! y iy hal y gama ee | (aly F 4208 42"04-] Siu azn 4200-4 1 D6 thi dang cét $ phuit | 4200 avi24! alia! | ane 4108+ |i Fame fs 4 Fig 2PRBAM [OAM [H0AM [VAM [12PM_— 1PM. MAM [SAM Boeing Hang ngay' QBBS2S5RGSRGIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 13 Boeing sansa ne? = My ji mann E : 454 il aoe 6 wo ( ie wl My ‘ ® w| if yh B a 4 : Co hdi luén xuat hién trong bat ky khung théi gian nao nhung t6i hiém khi gp mét nha dau co ngan han thanh céng ma truée dé khong phai la mét nha dau tu dai han thanh céng. Téi ciing timg biét nhiéu nha dau ter c6 quan niém ring bi quyét kiém tién 1a sir dung khung thai gian cang ngin cang tot. Nhung thyre té khéng phai vay. Khi chting ta rat ngin khung thdi gian, chat long va d6 cap nhat cia dit liéu cang tro nén quan trong. Vi du, néu dif ligu hang ngay cé tré mot gié thi khong sao, nhung mét su bién dong nhé cla gidt theo thdi gian thyrc (realtime hoc tick) ma tré 5 phut lai la cd mét van dé. Dang tiéc, nhiéu bang gid “tre tuyén” (tire 1a nhimg bang gia duoc cap nhat ngay lap titc) trén Internet lai khong realtime. Su cham tré nay phan lén khong phai do Internet ma cht yéu la do nhimg nha cung cap dit ligu. Ho duéng nhu khéng hiéu duge tam quan trong cia viée cung cap dit ligu kip tho Cach tinh va cach sir dung cdc chi bao trong cudn sdch nay thudng dé cip dén dir ligu theo ngay. Ching han, t6i cé thé néi “Néu gid dong ctra cao hon so vi gia dong cita cua ngay hém truéc”. Tuy nhién, ching ta cé thé thay thé bat ky khung thdi gian nao cho tir “ngay”, Vi du, khi quan sat mét biéu dé theo gid, thi cau trén sé durge viét lai nhu sau: “Néu gid dong cira cao hon gia dong cira cia gid truée”. YEU TO THOI GIAN Trang 6 cé phan giai thich vé cdc théng sé gid, cy thé nhwr gid mé cita, gid cao nhat, gid thap nhat va gid déng cita. Phan nay chi trinh bay vé yéu t6 thai gian béi phan tich ky thuat chi yéu tap trung vao sy thay di cua gid theo thdi gian.14 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 50 45 E 40 E35 E 30 25 § 20 504 50 454 45 404 40 | 354 5 304 x0 54 i E 25 is 204 8 20 _B i M Hinh 10 biéu thi dudng gia cua cd phiéu Boeing va Compaq. Trong 20 thang qua, cd hai c6 phiéu nay déu ting tir 20 USD/cp Ién hon 50 USD/ep. Nguyén nhan day gia iéu Bocing lién tyc gia tang trong 20 thang qua la nhé ky vong cita nha dau vé cé phiéu Boeing ngay cng cao, trong khi gid 66 phiéu Compaq it bién dOng trong 16 thang dau, sau d6 tang manh vao 4 thang cudi. Diém tha vi cia dé thi point-and-figure (xem trang 253) dé 1a vige bo qua yéu té théi gian va chi tap trung thé hign sy thay déi cia gid. HO TRQ VA KHANG CU Gia chimg khoén 1a két qua cia qua trinh thudn mua vira bn giita ngudi ky vong thj truéng tang (bén mua) va ngudi ky vong thi trudng giam (bén ban). Bén mua day gia lén cao hon, cdn bén ban kéo gid xuong thap hon. Vi vay, xu huéng gid co thé cho biét bén nao dang chiém wu thé. Quan sat biéu dé gid cia cd phiéu Compaq 6 Hinh 11 ching ta thay, trong khodng théi gian nay, bén mua kiém soat va hé tro dé gid khong rét xuéng duéi mire 14% USD. Diéu do c6 nghia rang tai mic gid 14% USD, béni mua cam thay viée dau tu vao cé phiéu Compaq 1a dang din (con bén ban khong sin sang ban véi gid thap hon 14% USD). Dién bién gia nhu vay da hinh thanh ngudng hé trg, vi ben mua dang hé trg gid.GIGI THIBU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 15 Compaq Computer : 1854 F185 be bas 17,04 , F 17,0 A N ' | me a ' i il fey 4 | F te ne i ‘| iy MY A W - wf se ee - ™ Computer 3 i | 1754 . 1_jNavong khangcutaimact7% F475 | 1704 i i, N, | E 170 SM a iE | 16 ly 1 16,0 SPN IMA: ae ene | 14,04 “a F 140 Tuong ty nhu nguéng hé tr, nguong khang cy 1a mire gid ma bén ban ting cutng bin, khién gid khdng thé ting cao hon. Xem Hinh 12, m6i khi gid e6 phiéu tién gin dén mirc 17% USD thi sé lugng ngudi ban nhiéu hon ngudi mua va digu nay han ché da ting cia gid.16 GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Gia giao dich 1a muc gid déng thuan gitta bén mua va bén ban. Bén mua ky vong gid sé con tang, trong khi bén ban ky vong gid sé giam. Ngudng hé trg la mite gid ma hau hét cdc nha dau tu tin ring gid sé tang cao hon, cdn nguong khang cu 1A muc gid ma hdu hét cdc nha dau tu tin ring gid se quay dau giam. Tuy nhién, ky vong cla nha dau tw lai thay déi theo thdi gian! Mac di nha dau ur khong ky vong gid c6 phiéu Compaq sé vugt mite 17% USD (Hinh 12) nhung chi 5 thang sau, ho lai sin sang mua cé phiéu Compag v6i gia 40 USD (Hinh 13). Compaq Computer 40 6 3 % 20 15 Nguéng hé tro tai 14% Wav" Boo Tae” Fed Mat for” hey" Di” Tt” “Tig” Reo Khi ky vong cia nha dau te thay doi, ho thudng hanh d6ng mét cach quyét doan, Quan sit Hinh 14, chiing ta thay khi gid cd phiéu Harley-Davidson vugt ngudng khang cy thi nha dau tur c6 hanh dong rat dist khodt. Lar ¥ thém, khi gid c6 phiéu butt phd Ién trén ngung khang cy thi khdi lugng giao dich gia ting dang ké. Mot khi nha dau tu chdp nhan giao dich cé phiéu Harley-Davidson trén mirc 14 USD thi cang c6 nhiéu nha dau tu sin sang mua vao co phiéu nay véi mirc cao hon (tir d6 khién gid va khéi luong cling tng). Twong ty, nhing ngudi timg ban ra quanh mt 14 USD ciing bat dau ky vong gid tiép tuc ting va khéng con muon ban ra. Su hinh thanh cua cdc nguéng hd ) tro/khang cy c6 1é 1a diém dang chi y nhat va xuat hién thudng xuyén nhat trén 46 thi gid. Cac nguéng hd tro/khang cucé thé bi pha v6 do su thay déi cla cdc yéu t6 co ban so véi ky vong cia nha dau tu (ching han nhu sy thay adi vé loi nhuan, b6 may quan ly, mdi truéng canh tranh,...) hoac do chinh nha dau tu thay déi ky vong (nha dau tu mua khi thdy gid tang). Nguyén nhan khéng quan trong bang két qua: ky vong méi dan dén mite gid mdi.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Cn Harley-Davidson i EL NT \ Gia bit pha lén trén nguing khang cu ~ at somone ho96 "November [December 1096 4 edi " February re eT oO) ey or Khi lvong giao dich tang khi gia butt pha E 50000 Wilson's Leather 17-1 Béo.céo lai nhudn vist ky vong i | a kin gidbit pha, 167] \ I, 154 Ih lt 144 | Me a4 | \ ha ul 1 gpmtnttliny 5 th 12] i be! i il ti yl if 20 } nH 2000-11 sr om duu sla st {1993 November pclae [Boo February Merch 3 a 14 13 17 Hinh 15 cho thay gia birt pha nhé céc yéu t6 co ban. Sy birt ‘pha nay xay ra khi Wilson’s Leather cong bé Igi nhuan cao hon dy bao. Sy thay déi cua gid cé phiéu sau khi co thong tin vé Igi nhuan cho ching ta biét loi nhuan da cao hon ky vong.18 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Dow Jones Industrials me \ yr i i “om 10500~ I fF 10500 my . fy } i yf f v0) | Ni - 2 ebruary Cac dot birt pha khac lai thién vé cam tinh hon. Chang han, rat kh thay d6i ky vong ciia nha dau tr trong suét qua trinh chi sé DJIA tién sat ngudng 9.500 digm (Hinh 16). Cung - Cau Ngudng hé tro/khdng cu thute chat Khéng qué phire tap. Ban chat cla ngudng hd tro/khang cy 1a m6t dang dudng cung cau co ban. Trong Kinh té hoc, duéng cung/ cau thé hign quan hé cung cau 6 mot mirc gid nhat dinh. Trong Hinh 17, dong cung thé hi n sé lugng ma bén ban sin sang ban ra tai mot mite gid nhat dinh (chang han nhu sé lugng cé phiéu). Dubng cung luén hudng lén vi khi gid tang, 6 luong ngudi ban cing ting (nghia 1a c6 thém nhiéu ngudi sin sing ban ra khi gia cao hon). Dudng cau thé hién s6 lugng chtmg khoan ma bén mua sin sang mua tai mot mite gid nhat dinh. Duong cau luén hung xuéng vi khi gid gidm, s6 long ngudi mua sé tang. TAt nhién, bén mua va bén ban khong thé chon mitre gid bat ky dé mua va ban. Ho phai chon mt mire gia ma bén mua sn sang mua va bén ban sin sang ban. Tir 6 tao ra diém cn bang, xuat hién khi dung cung va dudng ciu ct nhau (trong Hinh 17 la xap xi 37% USD). Tai m6t mite gia bat ky, d6 thi cung/cau cho thay sé luong ngudi mua va ngudi ban. ‘Vi du, Hinh 17 cho thay tai mire gid 42/4 USD sé c6 10 ngudi mua va 25 ngudi ban.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 19 Noseng ing cg Dang cng eigusban) 1 Bag Nowaahorg Plguara) 25 | Nova ' o Nguong hé trg xuat hién tai mtrc gid ma dudng cung cham vao truc tung (ct '7'/, USD). Gia khong giam xuong thap hon mire nay vi khéng 6 ngudi ban sin sang ban ra véi mire gia thap hon 27'4 USD. Nguong khang cy xuat hién tai mtrc gid ma duong cau cham vao truc tung (c6t gid trong Hinh 17 la 47/4 USD). Gid khéng tang cao hon mite nay vi khong c6 ngudi mua sin sang mua vao véi mite gid cao hon 47% USD. Trong mét thi trudng ty do, dong cung/cau lién tuc thay d6i. Khi ky vong nha dau tu thay d6i, mttc gid ma bén mua va bén ban chap nhén ciing thay déi theo. Gia birt pha (breakout) lén trén nguéng khang cu 1a bang chimg dudng cau sé dich chuyén lén vi 6 nhiéu ngudi sn sang mua véi gia cao hon. Twong ty, gid pha vo (breakout) xudng duéi nguéng hé tro cho thay dudéng cung sé dich chuyén xuong. Nén tang cia phan Ién cdc céng cu phan tich ky thuat cting nhu vigc dinh gia hau hét cac loai hang héa va dich vu déu bat nguén tt quan hé cung cau. Biéu d6 gid chimg khoan cho ching ta m6t cai nhin toan dién vé cung/cau trong thyre té. Giai doan phan van cia nha dau tw Sau khi gi pha v6 nguong hé tro/khang cy, nha dau tu thudng phan van vé mite gid méi. Vi dy, sau khi gid pha v6 ngu6ng khang cy, bén mua va bén ban hoai nghi vé sur bén viing ciia mitc gid méi cao hon va c6 thé quyét dinh ban ra. Diéu nay tao nén m6t hién tugng ma tdi goi la giai doan phan van cua nha dau tu - khi gid tam thoi quay vé nguéng hé tro/khang cy sau khi da pha vo cdc nguong nay. Ching ta hay quan sat bién dgng cua gia cé phiéu Questar trong Hinh 18 va hu y dén sur birt pha sau hai lan digu chinh khi gid tré lai nguéng khang cu.20 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Questar 1204 F 120 1154 E415 1104 p Me ‘os, “enn F 105 1004 i fF 10,0 asd he Wy \ F * wi Me " E eo w yi ciel ws Ego Dién bién gid chimg khodn sau giai doan phan van cia nha dau tu rét quan trong. Mot trong hai kha nang co thé xay ra: nha dau tu cho rang mite gid moi khong bén ving va gia sé tré lai mite trude 46, hosc ho chip nhin mite gia méi va gid sé tiép tue dich chuyén theo hudng pha vo nguéng hd tro/khang cw. Sau giai doan phan van, néu da sé nha dau tur déu cho ring mite gié méi khong bén viing thi sé xudt hién mot bay tang gid (bull trap/false breakout). Hinh 19 cho thay gid chimg khodn phé vo nguéng khang cy & gan mire 33 USD (va thu hut thém nhiéu nha dau tu ky vong gid sé tang), nhung sau dé gid lai rét xudng dudi ngudng khang cy Kim cho nhimg ngudi nay phai nim gitt c6 phiéu 6 mite gid qui cao. Tam Iy, tuong tir cling cé thé tao ra mt bay gidm gia (bear trap). Hinh 20 cho thay cd phiéu AlliedSignal nhiéu Ian kiém chimg ngudng hé tre gin mire 164 USD. Neuéng hé trg nay khéng thanh céng vi gid da rét xudng thap hon, nhung ciing di lam cho nhiing nui ky vong gia giam ban (hoc ban khéng) cé phiéu. Sa A cé phiéu tang tro lai nguong hé tro, nhung thay vi quay dau giam thi gi ting cao, khién nhiing ngudi theo truong phai gid xuéng phai that vong, M6t xu hudéng khac c6 thé xay ra sau giai doan phn van li ky vong cia ha dau tu cé thé thay déi va chp nh4n mire gid mdi. Trong truéng hgp nay, gid sé tiép tuc dich chuyén theo huréng pha vo nguéng ho tro/khang cur (tire 1a gid tiép tuc ting sau khi nguéng khang cy bj pha vé hodc giam tiép néu ngudng hé tro bi xuyén thing). Hinh 21 cho thay sau hai giai doan bén mua va bén ban phan van vé murc gid méi, ky vong cia ho da thay déi hin khi gid birt pha manh lén trén nguéng khang cy 35 USD.GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT \Compusa iém birt pha 374 \ 364 \ 334, Nawdng khing ov \ i T T T Biy tang gia / ia doan phan van / cia nha dau tw a \ hy, ate Hy wal bl 324 i] nq PUT ETE ETT T TTT T i3_bo 7 iS bob 2 pope 2 b 17 bs 11996 February bB March 4 Bay gidm gia Ea i | Giaidoan phan van cianha daute aa a BRABNBBSSRSRKESLBSSSE 2122 GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Eastman Kodak 704 E = i 604 Kj vong méi p FE ss E 504 f ip EL 4 Diém bit pha F 4 ne E : Nguéng hé tio NX [ey wh , ia by, fi \ oop Mr , Wa wef 4 saison phan van od ciianha dau tu E 1984 1087 RB 8 & 6 &§ FF BBS Eastman Kodak Khai lugng giao dich tang manh ki gia bit pha 354 pigmbat pha | 304 Khdilugng giao ich tang nhe Ahi gia bift pha \GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 23 M6t cach higu qua dé xac dinh mtrc d6 ky vong sau giai doan birt pha la phan tich khdi hrong giao dich trong giai doan dé. Néu gid pha vo nguéng ho ) tro/khang cur voi khéi Ivong ting manh thi mite ky vong mdi sé duge thiét lap. Diéu nay dic biét dung néu khéi luong gidm trong sudt giai doan phan van cua nha dau tu (tite 1a chi mét sé it nha dau tu phan van vé moc gia mdi). . . Neguoc lai, giai doan birt pha di kém véi khdi lung vira phai cho thay co rat it nha dau tu thay doi ky vong va viée gid tro lai mtre ky vong ban dau (tire 1a mute gia ban dau) hoan toan cé kha nang xay ra. Hinh 22 minh hoa qua trinh pha vo cac nguong khang cy ciia hai cé phiéu Eastman Kodak va IBM. Trong qué trinh gid co phiéu Eastman Kodak vuot qua nguéng khang cu, khdi long giao dich cia cé phiéu nay tang lén dang ké. Trong suot giai doan phan van sau do, khdi lugng giao dich ctia cd phiéu nay giam. Ca hai dau hiéu nay cho thay sy birt pha 1a chac chan va gid cé phiéu sé tang. Nguoc lai, khéi lung giao dich ctia cé phiéu IBM chi & mite trung binh khi gid pha vo ngudéng khang cy. Diéu nay cho thay ky vong khong thay doi va mic gia mdi sé khong t6n tai duge lau. Nguong khang cy tré thanh Nguéng hé tro Nguiing khang cu khi bi pha vé sé tro thanh ngudng hé tro méi. Tuong tu, nguong ho tro khi bi xuyén thing sé tro thanh nguéng khang cu mdi. Day 14 mét khai niém quan trong. Hinh 23 minh hoa sy thay ddi tir nguéng khang cy thanh ngudng hé tro. Sau khi gia pha vo nguéng khang cy 6 mite gan 10 USD thi mire nay tré thanh nguéng hé tro mdi. AlliedSignal 1354 5 135 7 E 5-4 125 1204 idm bat pha 120 1154 115 we N i E| amakhé 105 100-4 Nagwtng khang cu \yi 100 954 95 90 Nguong hé tro 90 86 85 804 80 754 75 704 79 Ae Nguéing khang cu chuyén thanh 85 851 nguéing hé tro sau khi bi pha v8. 85 504 50 454 45 ised fsa724 GIGI THIU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Diéu nay xay ra do lép nha dau tuméi ky vong thi trudng tang dang nong long cho co héi mua vao ngay khi gid cé phiéu cham 10 USD vi ho da khong mua vao khi gia thap hon 10 USD (lic d6 nhimg nha dau tu nay dy bdo tinh hinh sé khong may kha quan). Ching ta cé thé thay ngudng hé tro/khang cy trong Hinh 23 khong hin la mét mite gid cy thé, vi thinh thoang gia cing vugt dong hé tro/khang cy. Trén thyre té, “ngudng nay” chinh ld ving gid dao déng trong khoang tir 9% - 10 USD. Day 1a trudng hop dién hinh. Muc dich cua nguéng hé tro/khang cy khéng phai dé dua ra mot mite gid cu thé ma nham cling cé quan diém: ké tir diém pha vo ngudng hé tro/khang cy (Hinh 23), gia c6 phiéu sé bién dong rat manh vi ky vong da thay d6i dang ké. Tuong tu, khi gia giam xuéng dudi nguéng hé tro, ngudng hé tro thudng tro thinh nguéng khang cy va rat kh6 bi pha vo. Khi gia tiép can nguéng hé tro trude do (nay da tro thanh nguéng khang cy), nha dau tu thudng cé gang han ché ton that bang ban ra. Hinh 24 cho thay mre 21 USD ciia cé phiéu Boeing da chuyén ti nguéng hé tro sang nguéng khang cu va ngugc lai nhu thé nao: Hién tuong ngudng khang cy tro thanh ngudng hé tro (va ngugc lai) la la rat pho bién. That vay, diéu dau tién ma tdi tim kiém trén d6 thi 1a cdc nguong hé tro/ khang cy trong qua khir. Diu nay cing giéng nhu cac chuyén gia dir bao thoi tiét (xem trang 3) thudng hoi “Thoi tiét gan day thé nao?”. Trude khi cé y dinh mua hodc ban, t6i can phai nim bit tinh hinh chung, ching han t6i cn phai biét ligu tdi dang 6 Texas trong mua hé hay Montana trong mua dong. _ ‘Boeing a ee a4 boat 04 ro 2 24 r @B 24 b B a bog oe bw B bs 244 8 24 b 2 21 Agung khang cv - 2 a4 E 2 0-4 Nguéng ho tro Nguonghitra- 29 194 b 19 18 ro 18 7 F 7 164 16 184 F158 1901GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 25 TOM TAT TOi vita trinh bay vé bién déng gid, ky vong ctia nha dau tu va ngudng hé tro/khang cy kha c6 dong. Tuy nhién, 61 chic chin rang da sé nha dau tur déu c6 thé nang cao két qua dau tu néu cha ¥ nhiéu hon dén nhing nguyén nhan can ban anh hung dén gid chimg khodn - d6 la ky vong cla nha dau tw va cung/edu. Sau day la tom luge cdc khai niém hé tro/khang cy duge dé cp trong phan nay. 1. Gid chtmg khodn thé hién mic gid déng thudn gia bén mua (nhing ngudi ky vong gia tang) va bén ban (nhing ngudi ky vong gia giam). 2. Gia chimg khodn thay d6i la do thay d6i trong ky vong cia nha dau tu vé muc gid tuong lai. 3. Nguéng hé tro xuat hién khi da sé déu cho rang gid sé khong xudng thap hon. 4. Ngu6ng khang cu xuat hién khi da so déu cho rang gia sé khong lén cao hon. 5. Vige pha v6 ngudng hé tro/khang cy thé hién su thay déi ky vong cia nha dau tu va su dich chuyén cia duong cung/cau. 6. Khoi lwong giao dich rat hitu ich khi xc dinh mite dé thay déi thyc sy ca ky vong. 7. Giai doan phan van xuat hign sau khi gid pha vo ngudng hé tro/khang cy va quay lai nguéng trudc do. 8. Mét khi bi phd v6, nguéng hé tro thong tro thanh nguéng khang cy va ngugc lai. XU HUONG Trong nhiing trang truéc, ching ta da tim hiéu cde nguong hd trg/khang cy bi pha vo nhu thé nao do su thay déi ky vong ctia nha dau tu, tir do din dén sudich chuyén cia dudng cung/cau. Sy thay déi nay thong xay ra d6t ngot va “dién bién theo théng tin”, oo Trong phan nay, ching ta sé cing tim hiéu vé xu hung gia. Xu hung gia thé hién sy thay ddi dong hudng lién tuc cua gid (tire 1a su thay ddi ky vong cia nha dau tu). Xu hudng khac voi nguéng hé tro/khang cy 6 chéd, xu hung thé hién sy thay déi, con ngudng ho tro/khang cy Ia rao can déi véi su thay déi. Trong Hinh 25, xu huéng tang duge hinh thanh khi cac day sau cao hon day truéc. Ching ta cing cé thé hiéu rang xu hung ting xuat hién khi cdc nguong hé tra dich chuyén 1én mitc cao hon - nhig ngudi ky vong thi trudng tang (the bulls) dang thing thé va day gid cé phiéu lén mite cao hon.26 GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT American Airlines a 8 & & S$ & Hinh 26 thé hign xu huéng giém. Xu hung gim durgc hinh thanh khi céc dinh sau thap hon dinh truéc, Ching ta ciing c6 thé hiéu ring xu huéng gidm xuat hién khi cdc nguéng khang cy dich chuyén xuéng mite thap hon - nhimg ngudi ky vong thj truréng gidm (the bears) dang thing thé va day gi c6 phiéu xuéng mirc thép hon. Deutsche Mark Continuous _-- uténg Xu huéng gidmGIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 27 AT&T | 8 fF 65 wel A Dubng Xu huéng gidm Eas i ie Ny of Wi ia al 25-4 “re Bart pha lén trén Ea dung xu huéng Mar" Thor” "Way “Dhin ” “ui” hog "Sep" “Toa” "Wow" Woo” hie | Tuong tu khi gia pha v6 ngudng hé tro/khang cu do ky vong thay dai, gid cing 6 thé pha vo dudng xu hudng tang/giam. Hinh 27 cho thay duréng xu hudng giam cia cé phiéu AT&T bi pha vo vi nha dau tw ky vong gid sé khdng cn gidm nita. Tuong ty nhw nhimng gi thuéng dién ra tai cdc ngudng hé tro/khang cu, giai doan phan van ciia nha dau tu cing hay xuat hién sau giai doan pha vo tam théi cia dung xu huéng. Trong Hinh 27, sau khi gid cé phiéu birt pha 1én trén duéng xu huéng giam thi ngudi ky vong thj trurdng xudng tam théi gianh lai quyén kiem soat va day gia gidm trd lai dong xu huéng (giai doan phan van cua nha dau tr). Sau giai dogn phan van, gid c6 phiéu burt pha manh mé. EE TRUNG BINH BQNG Trung) binh dong 1a mot trong nhimg cong cy phan tich ky thuat xuat som nhat va pho bién nhat. Cac trang tiép theo sé trinh bay phuong thire tinh toan co ban va cach sir dung trung binh dong. Phan 2 sé trinh bay day du chi tiét vé trung binh dong (xem trang 203). Trung binh d6ng Ia gia trang binh cia chtmg khoan trong m6t khoang thdi gian xac dinh. Chting ta can xac dinh khoang thoi gian cu thé khi tinh gia trung binh (vi du 25 ngay).28 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Cach xac dinh trung binh dong gian don Ia tinh tong céc mite gid cla ching khoan trong mot sé ky giao dich gan nhat (goi 1a "n"), sau d6 chia cho "n". Chang han, dé tinh trung binh dong 25 ngay, ta cOng cac mire gid déng cita ca chimg khoan trong 25 ngay gan nhat, sau d6 chia cho 25. Két qua phép tinh 1a gid trung binh cua chimg khoan trong 25 ngay qua. Cach tinh nay duge ap dung cho moi khung thdi gian trong biéu do (chang han nhu ngay). Ching ta khéng thé tinh trung binh dong néu khong c6 dit liéu cua “n” ky. Chang han, ching ta khong thé tinh duge trung binh dong 25 ngay néu khong c6 dir ligu dén ngay thir 25. Hinh 28 thé hién trung binh déng 25 ngay ciia gid Dau tho. Dau thé Trung binh dong 2 khdng tinh duce cho 19 én ngay tha 25 x Duéng trung binh 42 déng 25 ngay. Trung binh déng trong biéu dé nay la gid tri trung binh cua gid dau trong 25 ngay, cho thay su déng thudn trong ky vong ctia nha dau tu trong 25 ngay qua. Gia dau vuot lén trén dudng trung binh ddng cé nghia 1a ky vong hién tai cia nha dau tu (gid hién tai) dang cao hon ky vong trong 25 ngay truéc d6 va nha dau tu ngay cang lac quan vé gid dau. Newoe lai, gia dau hém nay thap hon trung binh d6ng co nghia la ky vong hién tai cla nha dau tu thdp hon ky vong trong 25 ngay trudc do. Thong thuong, trung binh déng thé hién su thay doi vé gid nén duge str dung dé theo déi nhimg thay d6i nay. Gia vuot lén trén duong trung binh dong cho thay nha dau tu dang lac quan hon va day thudng 1a thoi diém thich hyp dé mua vao. Nguogc lai, gid giam xudng dudi dudng trung binh dong cho thdy nha dau tu dang bi quan hon va day thudng 1a thi diém thich hop dé ban ra.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 29 Mii tén “mua” (huéng lén) trong Hinh 29 xuat hién khi gid 6 phiéu Ford vugt duéng trung binh d6ng 25 tuan, con mai tén “ban” (huéng xudng) xudt hién khi gid giam xudng dudi duéng trung binh dng 25 tuan, Ching ta cé thé thay trung binh dong rat nam bat durge sy dich chuyén khi thi trudng c bién dong, chi bao nay lai cho tin higu rang cua”. qua trong viée giip nha dau tr én dng manh nhung khi gid it Ford 654 F 65 604 F 60 554 55 504 F 50 as E45 404 E 40 364 F 36 304 \ bugng Trung binh 30 254 dong 25 tuan 05 204 20 154 tt F 15 995 Tro%6 heer hoes Tove Chiing ta cing cé thé sir dung trung binh dng dé “higu chinh” nhimg dir ligu bién dong that thu@ng. Hinh 30 cho thay sd lugng cé phiéu da xac lip dinh moi (46 thj trén) va trung binh dgng 10 tuan cua gia tri nay (dé thi dudi). Trung binh dong gitip chting ta dé dang hon trong viéc theo doi xu hung that cua dir liéu Ky giao dich trong Trung binh dong Ching ta cé thé str dung trung binh dong 200 ngay dé nhan biét cdc xu huong dai han. Néu khong tinh dén phi giao dich, sir dung trung binh dong cang ngan (tre 1a s6 ky tinh ton ft hon) thi cang higu qua. Chuing ta c6 the sir d tich ky thuat (xem trang 5) dé ty dong xac dinh sé ky téi uu dé tinh trung binh dong. Chang han, céc mii tén mua/ban trong Hinh 29 duge hién thi ur dong bing phan mém MetaStock.30 GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT NYSE New Highs 600-} Daligu chua xily 3004 300 2504 F260 Trung binh dong E 204 To tuin 200 1504 I a) 1004 A | 100 wis WW Take My Ye» 7 Uu diém va Han ché Uu diém ciia hé théng trung binh déng (tie mua/bin khi gid pha vo during trung binh dong) 1a gitp nha dau tu luén nim bat duge xu hudng ciia thi trudng. Gid khéng thé tang nhiéu néu khong virgt qua durge mite gid trung binh, nghia li khong lam xuat hién tin hiéu mua vao. Gia cing khéng thé giam nhiéu néu khéng roi xudng duéi dudng trung binh d6ng, nghia 14 chu xudt hién tin hiéu ban. Han ché cita hé thong trung binh dong 1a thurang cho tin higu mua/bén chim hon bién dng gia thye té. Bén canh dé, néu xu huéng khéng duy tri trong mot khodng thoi gian dui dai (thudng la gp ddi khong théi gian dé tinh trang binh d6ng) thi nha dau tu sé bj thua 16. Ching han, Hinh 29 cho thay trong ‘iai doan tir nam 1996 dén dau 1997, gid it bién dong di tao ra nhiéu tin hiéu nhiéu. Giai doan phan van cia nha dau tu Trung binh d6ng cing thudng cho ching ta thay giai doan phan van cla nha dau tu (xem trang 19). Hinh 31 thé hién mét thu té phé bién 1a gid chimg khoan thuéng pha vé duéng trung binh déng dai han, sau dé quay tré lai trudc khi tiép tuc xu hung.GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 31 Dow Jones Industrials 6600 6500 6400 6300 bose ! 6100 ith, ual 6100 6000} igi bt pha pay te Z Feo 15900 peg hat 5900 5800. i a 5800 5700: apf tll a Trung binh dong 5700 5800 50tuén 5600 5500 i 5500 400-1" 5400 I Giai doan phan van 5300 cia nha dautu 5000 5200 5200 5100 ~ 5100 ke bib [2 hs 268 B fe bs ho 7 f4 bi pele fi fe Bo) Tugust Beptember (October l - CHI BAO Chi béo dugc tinh dya trén 2 tham sé la gid chimg khodn va/hoic khéi hrgng giao dich. Két qua tinh todn duge sir dung dé dir doan sy thay déi gid. Trung binh déng dap img duge cae tiéu chi trong dinh nghia vé mét chi bao: Trung binh déng duge tinh dya trén gid chimg khodn dé str dung cho viée dy don su thay d6i gid. Phan 2 (xem tir trang 45) sé dua ra v6 sé vi du vé chi bao. Phan nay chi trinh bay so luge vé mét chi béo don gidn 1a Phan ky va H@i ty clia duéng Trung binh dong (MACD). Phan ky va H6i tu cia dwong Trung binh déng (MACD) MACD duge tinh bing cach lay trung binh déng 12 ngay trirdi trung binh dong 26 ngay cua gid chimg khodn. Két qua nhin dugc 1a mét chi bao dao dng quanh mirc 0. MACD Ién hon 0 cé nghia la trung binh dong 12 ngay cao hon trung binh dong 26 ngay. Day la mét dau hiéu ciia thi trudng gid Ién vi cho thay ky vong gan day32 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT cua nha dau tu (tire 1a trung binh d6ng 12 ngay) lac quan hon so vi ky vong truée 6 (tire 1a trung binh dong 26 ngay). Dieu nay ciing cho thay dau hiéu dich chuyén lén cua duong cung/cau. MACD roi xuéng dusi mirc 0 c6 nghia la trung binh dong 12 ngay thdp hon trung binh déng 26 ngay, déng thoi cho thay dau hiéu dich chuyén xudng cla duong cung/cau. Hinh 32 biéu thi duong gia va chi bao MACD cia cé phiéu Intuit, Mai tén “mua” (hu6ng lén) xudt hién khi MACD tang [én trén mite 0 va mili tén “ban” (huéng xuéng) xuat hién khi MACD gim xudng dui mttc 0. Duong trung binh dOng 12 ngay va 26 ngay cing duge thé hién trén biéu dé gia. Intuit 2,0 20 155 45 4,0) 4,0 0,5 05 00 Qo 05 05 41,0 10 30 2 2 J y ace Trung binh déng 15 5 ps ingay 15 i Trang binh déng 10 rngay 10 a ae Duong trung binh dong 9 ngay ctta MACD (chit khong phai cuia gid cé phiéu) thudng duge vé cing véi chi bio MACD. Duong nay duge goi la “dudng tin higu”. Dudng tin higu nay gidp dy bdo sy héi ty ca hai duong trung binh dong 12 ngay va 26 ngay (tirc la MACD di chuyén vé phia dudng 0). Hinh 33 thé higén MACD va duéng tin higu cla MACD (dudng nét dirt). Mui tén “mua” (hung lén) xuat hién khi MACD vuot lén trén dung tin higu, con miii tén “ban” (huéng xuéng) xuat hign khi MACD ct xuéng dui dudng tin higu. C6 thé thay phuong phap nay gitp ching ta nam bat duge xu hung cua thi truéng, mac dit co nhiéu tin hiéu nhiéu.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 33 intuit 2,04 Maco 20 ‘ 15 ‘ F 10 °, F 5 0, I 00 4, F 05 4 E40 354 6 304 20 24 : 6 204 “\ 2 wi That 6 t Wye Tie "Aagust” Septem Novertber 908, Hay xem xét tinh hop ly trong cach sir dung chi bao nay. MACD la hiéu sé gitta hai trung binh déng. Dudng trung binh dong ngan han vuot duéng trung binh dong dai han (MACD Ién hon 0) cho thay ky vong cia nha dau tu ngay cang lac quan (tire la duong cung/cau dich chuyén \én). Bang cach vé duéng trung binh dong 9 ngay cia MACD, ching ta cd thé nhan biét duge su thay doi ky vong ctia nha dau tu (hay 1a su dich chuyén cia duong cung/cau). Chi bdo cho Tin higu sém va Chi bao cho Tin hiéu tré Trung binh déng va MACD la nhimg vi du ctia chi bao theo xu huéng (Trend fol- lowing hoac chi bao cho tin higu tré (Lagging indicators, xem Hinh 34). Ching ta 6 thé thay cac tin higu mua/ban trong Hinh 34 thuong xuat hién tré nhung cing gitp nha dau tu thu duge loi nhuan khi hanh ddng theo nhitng xu huéng chinh. Nhiing chi bdo nay phat huy higu qua khi gia dich chuyén theo xu huéng tuong di dai. Ching khéng canh bdo vé nhitng thay di sap toi cia gid ma don gian chi cho thay xu hwéng hign tai cia gid (ching han nhu dang tang hay dang giam) dé nha dau tu cé thé dua ra quyét dinh tong tmg. Chi bdo theo xu huéng luén cho tin higu mua/ban tré nhung lai giip nha dau tw han ché ri ro mét cach higu qua bing céch gitt ho theo ding xu hudng thi trudng.34 GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT Pepsico 7R9994 2 2 2 a 20> 20 194 9 Hinh 35 cho thay cae chi béo theo xu huéng khéng hiéu qua khi thi trudng di ngang.GIGI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT 35 Cac chi bao cho tin hiéu sém (Leading indicators) cau thanh nén mét nhom chi bao khac. Cac chi bdo nay gitip ching ta kiém Idi bang viéc du doan truée xu huéng gid va cé co héi kiém Idi nhiéu hon do mite d6 rai ro cao hon. Nhém chi bao nay hoat d6ng hiéu qua nhat khi thi trong di ngang. Thong thudng, cdc chi bdo cho tin hiéu sém do luong mite dé “qua mua” hay “qua ban” cua chimg khoan. Cong viéc do long nay duge thuc hién dua trén gia dinh rang mét chimg khodn trong ving “qua ban” sé phuc hdi tré lai. Hinh 36 the hién biéu dé gid theo tuan va chi bao Stochastic Oscillator (xem trang 321) cla co phiéu Chevron. Mai tén “ban” (huéng xuéng) xudt hién khi Stochastic Oscillator tao dinh trong ving qua mua va mii tén “mua” (hung lén) xuat hién khi Stochas- tic Oscillator tao day trong ving qua ban. Ching ta cd thé thay day 1a nhimng tin hiéu canh bao sém vé sy dao chiéu cia gid. oi Stochastic 25 tuan oS 88588888 4 Qua ban 8 + at ; s ' fi “Wh Hat i 4 1 aye " mf aly" + Wh Lg + t ol! th ‘CU FRERRS HRT RE RETR HA URE Viée ding chi bao cho tin higu sm hay chi bao cho tin higu tré thy thudc vao méi ngudi. Theo kinh nghiém ciia t6i thi hau hét cdc nha dau tu (ké ca ti) thong di theo xu huéng thay vi dy bao xu huong. Vi vay, ca nhan t6i thich st dung nhing chi béo cho tin hiéu tré. Tuy nhién, toi d3 gap rat nhiéu nha dau tu thanh cong khi sit dung cac chi bdo cho tin hiéu som. Gia cé xu huéng va Gia di ngang Nguii ta da phat trién mét s6 hé théng giao dich va chi bao dé xéc dinh ligu gia dang c6 xu huéng (tire 14 dich chuyén manh theo mt huéng xac djnh) hay di36 GIOI THIEU VE PHAN TICH KY THUAT ngang (ttrc 1a gia dao dong trong bién do hep). Ching ta co thé sir dung chi bao cho tin hiéu tré (xem trang 33) trong giai doan thi trong co xu hudng va st dung chi bdo cho tin higu sém trong giai doan thj truong di ngang. Luu y rang, di kha d8 dang dé xéc dinh gia dang c6 xu hudng hay di ngang nhung sé cue ky khé khan dé biét duge sau do gid sé tiép tue di theo xu huéng hay di ngang, Hinh 37 cho thay gid cb phiéu The Washington Post di ngang trong suét 2 nam truéc khi di theo xu hudng trong 2 nam tiép theo. Washington Post 32 310 300 300 20 290 280° 280 210 270 280 | 260 250-|_Giddingang (' h Ny 250 240: Jy y ny! NN, ha R Viel? 20 230: | fi L m ry - 230 220 K \ ‘ fF 220 1 Gia c6 xu hudng 210-7 F210 ST TS TTT Céc chi bao gitip xac dinh gid dang cé xu huéng hay di ngang bao gém Aroon (xem trang 64), Chande Momentum Oscillator (xem trang 100), Commodity Se- lection Index (xem trang 106), Directional Movement (xem trang 119), MESA Sine Wave (xem trang 193), Polarized Fractal Efficiency (xem trang 256), Ran- dom Walk Index (xem trang 285), Vertical Horizontal Filter (xem trang 351) va r-Squared (xem trang 282). Phan ky Phan ky xuat hign khi xu huéng gid chimg khodn bién dng khong dong nhat véi xu huéng ctia chi bao. Phan 2 dua ra nhiéu vi dy minh hoa vé phan kj.