Time series, part 7, exercise Quakes, 2017-2018

Exercise provided in https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat501/node/358

Let 𝑦𝑡 be the annual number of worldwide earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7 on the Richter
scale for n = 100 years, from 1916 to 2016 (earthquakes.txt data obtained from
http://earthquake.usgs.gov).

1) Use Box-Jenkins methodology to find the ARIMA model which best fits the data below.
2) Provide the forecast graph and forecast evaluation; comment upon (interpret) the results.
3) Provide an estimate for the number of earthquakes in year 2016.
Year Quakes
1916 2
1917 5
1918 12
1919 8
1920 7
1921 9
1922 7
1923 12
1924 9
1925 12
1926 13
1927 11
1928 16
1929 15
1930 9
1931 19
1932 9
1933 8
1934 12
1935 14
1936 11
1937 9
1938 21
1939 14
1940 7
1941 13
1942 11
1943 18
1944 13
1945 5
1946 10
1947 13
1948 11
1949 9
1950 13
1951 11
1952 7
1953 9
1954 6
1955 10
1956 8
1957 21
1958 8
1959 8
1960 13
1961 12
1962 10
1963 17
Time series, part 7, exercise Quakes, 2017-2018
1964 12
1965 18
1966 9
1967 11
1968 22
1969 14
1970 17
1971 20
1972 16
1973 9
1974 11
1975 13
1976 14
1977 10
1978 12
1979 8
1980 6
1981 10
1982 7
1983 14
1984 14
1985 15
1986 11
1987 13
1988 11
1989 9
1990 18
1991 17
1992 13
1993 12
1994 13
1995 20
1996 15
1997 16
1998 12
1999 18
2000 15
2001 16
2002 13
2003 15
2004 16
2005 11
2006 11
2007 18
2008 12
2009 17
2010 24
2011 20
2012 16
2013 19
2014 12
2015 19