ECONorthwest

ECONOMICS • FINANCE • PLANNING

Se$ng produc-ve, a1ainable

educa-onal goals for North Carolina
June 15, 2018
 Takeaways
•  Technological change has demanded, and will con-nue to demand,
higher skilled labor
•  North Carolina’s postsecondary a1ainment gap (across various
defini-ons) is 11-15 percentage points
•  North Carolina’s postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) increased by
7 percentage points over the past decade
•  Sta-ng the obvious: postsecondary enrollment at age 19 is a predictor
of postsecondary a1ainment at age 26
•  P12 goals should consider measures of hard and soR skills
•  Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow
during K12, confirming the need for age 0-4 programming and
measures
Educa-on and the economy

Annual average GDP per capita growth, 1970-2007

So
u

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
No th Da
rth ko
Co Dak ta
nn ota
ect
Vi r icut
Ma Co gi nia
Ne s sac lorad
w H hus o
a m etts
psh
ir
Te e
Ge a s x
or
K a gia
Ne ns as
b
L ou raska
Ma is iana
Ne ryl a
w J nd
e rs
ey
Ark Utah
Mi ans
n a
Mi ne so s
ssi s ta
Al a si ppi
ba
Rh ma
od Iow
e Is a
No O land
r r
So th Ca eg on
uth ro
C li na
Te aroli n
nn a
Ok e sse
Wa la ho e
shi ma
ngt
M on
Wi ai n
sco e
n
F sin
Ca lorida
li
Ne forni a
wY
M

Source: Hanushek et al. (2017). Economic Gains from Educa-onal Reform by US States. Journal of Human Capital.
Total

Pe o ork
nn nta n
s yl a
va
Test scores

Ari nia
Otherannual

zo
Contribu-ons to GDP per capita growth, 1970-2007

Ill in na
o
Years of schooling

Ida i s
Ne Indi ho
w M ana
Ve ex ico
rm
Economic benefits of a be1er-educated workforce

Mi ont
s
K e souri
ntu
ck
Oh y
We Nev io
st V ad
irgi a
factors average GDP per capita growth

Ha n i a
Mi wai
chi i
gan
 Risk of job disrup-on
Share of occupa-ons at high risk of automa-on

Percent Automation Risk

45% - 50%
Lower

50% - 55%

55% - 60%

60% - 65%
Higher

Source: Frey and Osborne (2017) & analysis by Ball State University
 Growing importance of social skills in the labor force

Cumulative Changes in Employment Share by Occupation Task Intensity

1980 to 2012

High Social, High Math

High Social, Low Math

Predicted
Actual

Low Social, High Math

Low Social, Low Math

1980 1990 2000 2010

High Social, High Math High Social, Low Math

Low Social, High Math Low Social, Low Math

Occupational Task Intensities based on 1998 O*NET

Source: Deming, D.J.1980-2000
Sources: (2017). The Growing
Census, ACS of Social Skills in the Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 132 issue 4.
Importance
2005-2013
Early thoughts on goal se$ng
 Early thoughts on goal se$ng
•  Start at the end and work back
•  Consider:
–  Age range(s)
–  Creden-al types
–  Growth feasibility
–  Exis-ng gaps by income, race/ethnicity, geography
–  Time to goal
 State-level goals versus current state-level a1ainment
State postsecondary attainment goals and actual attainment, 2016
80%

Actual attainment (for 25-34 or 25-64 year olds, depending on goal)

MN
60% MA

NJCO
NH
SD VA
ND WA
RI VT
IA
ME
WI CT OR
MD KS
MT UT
HI MO
FL IL WY
ID OH
TN GA
TX
AZ
IN AK
NM
40% AL OK
KY
LA AR
NV

Legend:
SC Certificate+
Associate+
Bachelor's+

20%
20% 40% 60% 80%
Attainment goal

Sources: Goals compiled by the Lumina Founda-on (HCM Strategists, Strategy Labs); ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS data; Georgetown CEW.
 North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, 2016
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

Age

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, 2016
60%
Ages 25-34: Ages 35-64:
recent graduates adult workforce
50%
AA+ a1ainment: AA+ a1ainment:
43% 42%
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

Age

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment, by age and race/ethnicity, 2016

White

Black

Hispanic

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by NC region and race/ethnicity, 2016
70%

Total White Black Hispanic

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
North Central Northeast Northwest Piedmont-Triad Sandhills Southeast Southwest Western
(South Central)

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+), 2016

Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64)

North Carolina 43% 42% 42%

Top state 58% 52% 53%

Difference -15 -10 -11

Lumina Founda-on’s Stronger Na-on (cer-ficate+), 2016

All (25-64)

North Carolina 47%

Lumina na-onal goal 60%

Difference -13

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 What’s feasible?
Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 25-34

Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 25-34

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00
ME WY NE OR CO DC TN IL MO TX CA UT VA OH MN SD NH NC WAMA RI NY KY CT AL NJ WI AR FL PA OK ID SC KS IA IN GA LA AZ MS NM AK WV HI MI NV VT MD DE MT ND

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 What’s feasible?
Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 35-64

Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 35-64

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00
DC IA NC SD MT MN WV OH IN SC PA NH WI GA NE VA MO KY TN MS AL ND WY MI NJ CO CT KS RI LA ME OR IL NY AR MA WA OK TX ID MD FL UT AZ HI NV DE CA AK NM VT

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 What’s feasible?
Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 25-64

Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 25-64

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00
DC IA NC SD NE MN OH WY TN MO NH CO VA PA ME WI IN SC WV OR KY IL GA AL RI NJ MT CT NY TX MS MA KS WA UT LA AR MI ND OK ID FL CA AZ MD HI NV DE NM AK VT

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 Poten-al a1ainment goals for North Carolina

Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64)

Moderate +11 pp +8 pp +9 pp
Stretch +13 pp +10 pp +11 pp
Ambi-ous ? ? +13 pp
Other measures that track
progress toward the goal
 Age 19 enrollment versus age 26 a1ainment
for the cohorts born in 1988-90 (averaged), by state

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 North Carolina postsecondary enrollment, by age, 2016
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

Age

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 NC enrollment, by age, compared with a top-performing state and neighboring states, 2016
70%

MN
60%
VA
NC
GA
50% TN

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

Age

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

 8th grade NAEP performance versus age 26 a1ainment
for the cohorts born in 1988-90 (averaged), by state

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS and NCES NAEP data

K12 indicators: academic achievement, a1endance, gradua-on
No disciplinary Steady
incidents in attendance in On-time Postsecondary Postsecondary
grades 6-8 9th grade HS graduation enrollment outcomes

No on-time
HS graduation

Not proficient
in elementary Not proficient
reading In elementary
math

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE and NSC data

 Achievement gaps measured at age 5
have proven difficult to narrow during K12
0.8
parent income in highest quartile

0.6

0.4
in standard deviations

0.2
test scores

age
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

parent income in lowest quartile

-0.8

Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors (December 2014) The Economics of Early Childhood Investments. Figure 3, page 13.
Analysis to come
 Example ques-ons answered by modeling

•  What will happen through 2030 if we do nothing?

•  How much would high school gradua-on rates have to
improve to reach the postsecondary a1ainment goal
by 2030?
•  To what extent can the state increase overall
a1ainment while reducing dispari-es across specified
popula-ons given an-cipated upper bounds on
postsecondary enrollment growth?
 Modeling ac-vi-es

•  Develop a baseline a1ainment forecast

(current condi-ons/policy)
•  Set targets for system performance needed to
achieve the goal
•  Evaluate contribu-ons of subpopula-on
a1ainment to the goal
 Example of goal-reaching approach to modeling:
Establish the ul-mate goal and iden-fy condi-ons necessary to achieve this goal
(condi-ons can be independent of the means used to achieve the goal)

Alternative trajectory (certificates+)

Baseline (certificates+)