P1:

1. GRAFICAR LA SERIE:

Ene10 105.6702841
Feb10 105.3305845
Mar10 101.5897675
Abr10 101.5640135
May10 101.3230068
Jun10 99.82714005
Jul10 99.46513135
Ago10 99.19876744
Sep10 96.46370449
Oct10 96.60060845
Nov10 96.59297238
Dic10 96.37401945
Ene11 95.99920359
Feb11 95.63357604
Mar11 92.22586507
Abr11 91.60213423
May11 91.62385452
Jun11 91.4261389
Jul11 90.7068766
Ago11 90.46640044
Sep11 88.98960617
Oct11 88.71030136
Nov11 88.32922873
Dic11 87.62812677
Ene12 84.71545089
Feb12 84.44109426
Mar12 83.16400094
Abr12 82.72428813
May12 82.69182268
Jun12 82.48708816
Jul12 82.41262105
Ago12 81.99575377
Sep12 80.04237776
Oct12 78.95107648
Nov12 79.05975888
Dic12 78.85570004
Ene13 78.76479155
Feb13 78.83574372
Mar13 77.89534247
Abr13 77.69924013
May13 77.54911621
Jun13 75.75966051
Jul13 75.34640154
Ago13 74.93955095
Sep13 74.19415857
Oct13 74.06692358
Nov13 72.67216794
Dic13 72.43883311
Ene14 72.21003812
Feb14 71.77876353
Mar14 71.14383801
Abr14 70.8651805
May14 70.70607028
Jun14 70.51077965
Jul14 70.20656577
Ago14 70.26672789
Sep14 69.89287269
Oct14 69.62907713
Nov14 69.73330097
Dic14 68.62960768
Ene15 68.51293311
Feb15 68.3056467
Mar15 67.19243888
Abr15 66.93107887
May15 66.55545833
Jun15 66.10809375
Jul15 65.8114248
Ago15 65.56409989
Sep15 63.54777522
Oct15 62.29426209
Nov15 62.08066008
Dic15 61.54296141
Ene16 61.31455231
Feb16 61.20799455
Mar16 60.42928808
Abr16 60.42239596
May16 60.29603733
Jun16 60.7028252
Jul16 60.65324297
Ago16 60.4367068
Sep16 60.3121838
Oct16 60.06390692
Nov16 59.89018702
Dic16 59.69070352
 Ene17 59.54907019
Feb17 59.35724457
Mar17 58.59286653
Abr17 58.74445865
May17 58.99420353
Jun17 59.08827133
Jul17 58.97133952
Ago17 58.57756611
Sep17 58.58680523
Oct17 58.86301713
Nov17 58.97934642
Dic17 58.8869811

Gráfico de serie-Tarifas Telefónicas

120

105.6702841
100

80

60 58.8869811

y = -0.4913x + 99.322
40 R² = 0.9602

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos mensuales cuyas estimaciones son de orden
descendentes de acuerdo, al periodo, esto ocurren en las compañías de telefonía
en el Perú y en otros países de américa latina por la competencia en los
mercados del consumo de los servicios telefónicos en los últimos 10 años.
 2. PROMEDIOS MÓVILES SIMPLES:

2.1 PROMEDIOS MÓVILES SIMPLES SEMESTRALES

Mes Pronóstico-Semestral
Ene10
Feb10
Mar10
Abr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10 102.7487121
Ago10 102.3978579
Sep10 100.3942675
Oct10 99.01385898
Nov10 98.96180761
Dic10 98.21005622
Ene11 97.9195754
Feb11 97.59898551
Mar11 96.04864026
Abr11 94.41323676
May11 94.09755331
Jun11 93.99893699
Jul11 93.71267124
Ago11 93.17022632
Sep11 91.34613276
Oct11 90.2958702
Nov11 90.16707794
Dic11 89.87768381
Ene12 89.16750168
Feb12 87.59092567
Mar12 86.71535021
Abr12 85.93715115
May12 85.52675843
Jun12 85.15997472
Jul12 83.60126952
Ago12 83.42685766
Sep12 82.57987736
Oct12 81.38333294
Nov12 80.82144958
Dic12 80.77342352
Ene13 80.63416055
Feb13 80.38027266
Mar13 79.43906074
Abr13 78.42320948
May13 78.37949951
Jun13 78.20240813
Jul13 77.26222603
Ago13 77.09107263
Sep13 76.41744671
Oct13 75.94669935
Nov13 75.8080199
Dic13 74.21591422
Ene14 73.89261733
Feb14 73.57479453
Mar14 72.98646105
Abr14 72.6053808
May14 71.76867422
Jun14 71.57245169
Jul14 71.36040889
Ago14 70.99266465
Sep14 70.70528295
Oct14 70.37902659
Nov14 70.1675737
Dic14 70.12204031
Ene15 69.41808673
Feb15 69.3898305
Mar15 69.09925969
Abr15 68.410758
May15 68.33218992
Jun15 67.592533
Jul15 67.31051343
Ago15 67.05853575
Sep15 66.37826938
Oct15 65.23942705
Nov15 64.42486021
Dic15 64.09437691
Ene16 63.67719311
Feb16 63.4393261
Mar16 62.37788489
Abr16 61.36177508
May16 61.25152802
Jun16 60.91949937
Jul16 61.00868876
Ago16 60.93061876
Sep16 60.43299744
Oct16 60.36728988
Nov16 60.17997213
Dic16 60.29650611
Ene17 60.17197325
Feb17 59.9928885
Mar17 59.83471418
Abr17 59.32838673
May17 59.31732284
Jun17 59.34245353
Jul17 59.31867076
Ago17 59.16429205
Sep17 58.58521632
Oct17 58.66563194
Nov17 58.92861033
Dic17 59.03380887

Pronóstico-Semestral
120

102.7487121
100

80

60 59.03380887

y = -0.4964x + 100.94
40 R² = 0.9689

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos del orden Semestral cuyos Pronósticos son del
orden semestral t=6, de forma descendentes de acuerdo, al periodo, como se
ven los pronósticos para los semestres siguientes son menores por la
competencia del mercado, paso de un mercado Monopolista por parte de
Telefónica y Claro a un Oligopolio en los últimos 10 años en el Perú.
2.2 PROMEDIOS MÓVILES SIMPLES ANUALES

Mes Pronóstico-Anual
Ene10
Feb10
Mar10
Abr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Ago10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dic10
Ene11 101.0221518
Feb11 100.664894
Mar11 98.61167177
Abr11 96.89493928
May11 96.4625705
Jun11 95.72549729
Jul11 95.44563512
Ago11 94.95282202
Sep11 93.46505247
Oct11 92.79510731
Nov11 92.65163687
Dic11 92.35162409
Ene12 91.81366518
Feb12 90.17451346
Mar12 88.33347967
Abr12 87.38306758
May12 87.17407132
Jun12 87.05898079
Jul12 86.59698238
Ago12 86.43951075
Sep12 85.49267997
Oct12 84.37633956
Nov12 83.64015261
Dic12 83.34394282
Ene13 81.78557546
Feb13 81.60294291
Mar13 80.99987233
Abr13 80.3098153
May13 80.1955314
Jun13 80.01810219
Jul13 79.08614078
Ago13 78.67107766
Sep13 77.49096435
Oct13 76.57261752
Nov13 76.56334123
Dic13 75.76393399
Ene14 75.60181233
Feb14 75.52289092
Mar14 74.837053
Abr14 74.42153907
May14 74.20714836
Jun14 73.2328654
Jul14 72.9285906
Ago14 72.57305836
Sep14 72.23044323
Oct14 71.97989814
Nov14 71.15062253
Dic14 71.08606704
Ene15 70.4198229
Feb15 70.14584832
Mar15 69.72474235
Abr15 69.02880969
May15 68.81857458
Jun15 68.53311899
Jul15 68.15732976
Ago15 68.03907635
Sep15 67.72848629
Oct15 66.58842617
Nov15 66.01378153
Dic15 65.35513388
Ene16 65.02794726
Feb16 64.8100995
Mar16 64.20021672
Abr16 63.68018348
May16 63.48892714
Jun16 63.20206554
Jul16 63.257125
Ago16 63.10867143
Sep16 61.99224101
Oct16 61.30322294
Nov16 61.0722835
 Dic16 60.71657421
Ene17 60.50262792
Feb17 60.37853237
Mar17 59.89326632
Abr17 59.50763125
May17 59.52024799
Jun17 59.84851437
Jul17 59.87075715
Ago17 59.70402316
Sep17 59.44487495
Oct17 59.32535608
Nov17 59.37660207
Dic17 59.33502497

Pronóstico-Anual
120

100 101.0221518

80

60 59.33502497

40 y = -0.4971x + 102.25
R² = 0.9734

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos del orden Anual cuyos Pronósticos son del
orden anual t=12, de forma descendentes de acuerdo, al periodo, como se ven
los pronósticos para los años siguientes son descendentes por la competencia
del mercado de telefonía en el Perú, en los últimos 10 años en el Perú.
3. PROMEDIOS MÓVILES DOBLES:
3.1 PROMEDIOS MOVILES DOBLES SEMESTRALES (α=0.4)

Mes Pronóstico-Semestral Doble(Yt) Pronóstico-Semestral Doble(Yt') ‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬

Ene10
Feb10
Mar10
Abr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Ago10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dic10
Ene11 100.4793842 100.4793842 0
Feb11 100.1587167 100.4793842 0.320667499
Mar11 98.99662649 100.3511172 1.354490664
Abr11 97.53124962 99.80932089 2.278071267
May11 96.68752219 98.89809238 2.210570196
Jun11 96.15380476 98.01386431 1.860059545
Jul11 95.95925619 97.26984049 1.310584296
Ago11 95.65582838 96.74560677 1.089778393
Sep11 94.60943329 96.30969541 1.70026212
Oct11 92.87968476 95.62959056 2.749905804
Nov11 92.19671175 94.52962824 2.332916492
Dic11 92.08300746 93.59646165 1.513454182
Ene12 91.79517753 92.99107997 1.195902446
Feb12 91.168864 92.51271899 1.343854993
Mar12 89.46852921 91.975177 2.506647785
Abr12 88.50561021 90.97251788 2.466907678
May12 88.05211454 89.98575481 1.933640267
Jun12 87.70222112 89.21229871 1.510077584
Jul12 87.1637382 88.60826767 1.44452947
Ago12 85.5960976 88.03045588 2.434358288
Sep12 85.07110394 87.05671257 1.985608631
Oct12 84.25851425 86.26246912 2.003954864
Nov12 83.45504569 85.46088717 2.005841485
Dic12 82.99071215 84.65855058 1.667838427
Ene13 82.18734652 83.99141521 1.804068682
Feb13 82.0305091 83.26978773 1.239278629
Mar13 81.48007501 82.77407628 1.294001272
Abr13 80.41119684 82.25647577 1.845278932
May13 79.62232953 81.5183642 1.896034672
Jun13 79.57646151 80.75995033 1.183488816
Jul13 79.41828434 80.2865548 0.868270467
Ago13 78.82124935 79.93924662 1.117997272
Sep13 78.26506668 79.49204771 1.226981024
Oct13 77.42032809 79.0012553 1.580927206
Nov13 77.16309943 78.36888442 1.205784989
Dic13 77.00521401 77.88657042 0.881356409
Ene14 75.73907013 77.53402786 1.794957731
Feb14 75.49184498 76.81604476 1.324199787
Mar14 74.99612062 76.28636485 1.29024423
Abr14 74.4665802 75.77026716 1.303686959
May14 74.20670035 75.24879237 1.042092027
Jun14 72.99229422 74.83195556 1.839661343
Jul14 72.73253451 74.09609103 1.363556516
Ago14 72.46760171 73.55066842 1.083066711
Sep14 71.98956285 73.11744174 1.127878885
Oct14 71.65533187 72.66629018 1.010958308
Nov14 71.07385041 72.26190686 1.188056452
Dic14 70.8700127 71.78668428 0.916671578
Ene15 70.7412246 71.42001565 0.678791048
Feb15 70.20537569 71.14849923 0.943123537
Mar15 70.04755673 70.77124981 0.723693086
Abr15 69.73914314 70.48177258 0.742629435
May15 69.28916585 70.1847208 0.895554951
Jun15 69.22711512 69.82649882 0.599383708
Jul15 68.50530987 69.58674534 1.081435474
Ago15 68.35017197 69.15417115 0.803999185
Sep15 68.07889772 68.83257148 0.753673756
Oct15 67.39451369 68.53110197 1.136588281
Nov15 66.78580848 68.07646666 1.290658178
Dic15 66.0086966 67.56020339 1.551506786
Ene16 65.70244517 66.93960068 1.237155504
Feb16 65.36786443 66.44473847 1.076874047
Mar16 64.90879774 66.01398886 1.105191113
Abr16 63.80865597 65.57191241 1.763256444
May16 62.89331764 64.86660983 1.973292189
Jun16 62.67295247 64.07729296 1.40434049
Jul16 62.29834624 63.51555676 1.217210523
Ago16 62.22400743 63.02867255 0.804665123
Sep16 61.65425182 62.7068065 1.052554678
Oct16 60.89738626 62.28578463 1.388398371
 Nov16 60.80940895 61.73042528 0.921016333
Dic16 60.54973575 61.36201875 0.812283001
Ene17 60.65259743 61.03710555 0.384508116
Feb17 60.55129601 60.8833023 0.332006298
Mar17 60.21294297 60.75049978 0.537556816
Abr17 60.10100203 60.53547706 0.434475026
May17 59.75417943 60.36168705 0.607507619
Jun17 59.80691447 60.118684 0.311769527
Jul17 59.75721339 59.99397619 0.236762802
Ago17 59.65577963 59.89927107 0.243491439
Sep17 59.49950312 59.80187449 0.302371377
Oct17 58.95680153 59.68092594 0.724124416
Nov17 58.99147739 59.39127618 0.399798786
Dic17 59.13553193 59.23135666 0.095824734
DAM 0.047912367

α 0.4

Yt+1'=αYt+(1-α)Yt'

Pronóstico-Semestral Doble(Yt')
120

100 100.4793842

80

60 59.23135666

40
y = -0.5165x + 104.69
R² = 0.9796
20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos Dobles del orden Semestral cuyos Pronósticos
son del orden Semestral t=6(dobles-α=0.4), de forma descendentes de acuerdo,
al periodo, como se ven los pronósticos para los años siguientes deberían ser
descendentes el aumento de los competidores en el mercado de telefonía en el
Perú, ya que a más competidores los precios del mercado descienden también
por aumento de la Oferta de los productos.
3.2 PROMEDIOS MOVILES DOBLES SEMESTRALES (α=0.6)

Mes Pronóstico-Semestral Doble(Yt) Pronóstico-Semestral Doble(Yt') ‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬

Ene10
Feb10
Mar10
Abr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Ago10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dic10
Ene11 100.4793842 100.4793842 0
Feb11 100.1587167 100.4793842 0.320667499
Mar11 98.99662649 100.2869837 1.290357164
Abr11 97.53124962 99.51276936 1.981519734
May11 96.68752219 98.32385752 1.63633533
Jun11 96.15380476 97.34205632 1.188251559
Jul11 95.95925619 96.62910538 0.669849193
Ago11 95.65582838 96.22719587 0.571367492
Sep11 94.60943329 95.88437537 1.274942082
Oct11 92.87968476 95.11941012 2.239725365
Nov11 92.19671175 93.77557491 1.578863155
Dic11 92.08300746 92.82825701 0.745249549
Ene12 91.79517753 92.38110728 0.585929756
Feb12 91.168864 92.02954943 0.860685428
Mar12 89.46852921 91.51313817 2.04460896
Abr12 88.50561021 90.2863728 1.780762591
May12 88.05211454 89.21791524 1.165800697
Jun12 87.70222112 88.51843482 0.816213702
Jul12 87.1637382 88.0287066 0.864968401
Ago12 85.5960976 87.50972556 1.913627966
Sep12 85.07110394 86.36154878 1.290444845
Oct12 84.25851425 85.58728187 1.328767623
Nov12 83.45504569 84.7900213 1.334975616
Dic12 82.99071215 83.98903593 0.998323783
Ene13 82.18734652 83.39004166 1.202695139
Feb13 82.0305091 82.66842458 0.637915475
Mar13 81.48007501 82.28567529 0.805600285
Abr13 80.41119684 81.80231512 1.391118282
May13 79.62232953 80.96764415 1.345314626
Jun13 79.57646151 80.16045538 0.583993864
Jul13 79.41828434 79.81005906 0.391774722
Ago13 78.82124935 79.57499423 0.753744881
Sep13 78.26506668 79.1227473 0.857680613
Oct13 77.42032809 78.60813893 1.187810837
Nov13 77.16309943 77.89545243 0.732353
Dic13 77.00521401 77.45604063 0.450826616
Ene14 75.73907013 77.18554466 1.446474532
Feb14 75.49184498 76.31765994 0.825814961
Mar14 74.99612062 75.82217096 0.826050342
Abr14 74.4665802 75.32654076 0.859960558
May14 74.20670035 74.81056442 0.603864075
Jun14 72.99229422 74.44824598 1.455951757
Jul14 72.73253451 73.57467492 0.842140413
Ago14 72.46760171 73.06939068 0.601788967
Sep14 71.98956285 72.7083173 0.718754445
Oct14 71.65533187 72.27706463 0.621732755
Nov14 71.07385041 71.90402498 0.83017457
Dic14 70.8700127 71.40592023 0.535907535
Ene15 70.7412246 71.08437571 0.343151115
Feb15 70.20537569 70.87848504 0.673109354
Mar15 70.04755673 70.47461943 0.427062706
Abr15 69.73914314 70.21838181 0.479238665
May15 69.28916585 69.93083861 0.641672756
Jun15 69.22711512 69.54583496 0.31871984
Jul15 68.50530987 69.35460305 0.849293186
Ago15 68.35017197 68.84502714 0.494855175
Sep15 68.07889772 68.54811404 0.469216314
Oct15 67.39451369 68.26658425 0.872070553
Nov15 66.78580848 67.74334191 0.957533431
Dic15 66.0086966 67.16882186 1.160125251
Ene16 65.70244517 66.47274671 0.770301533
Feb16 65.36786443 66.01056579 0.642701357
Mar16 64.90879774 65.62494497 0.716147228
Abr16 63.80865597 65.19525663 1.386600667
May16 62.89331764 64.36329623 1.46997859
Jun16 62.67295247 63.48130908 0.808356612
Jul16 62.29834624 62.99629511 0.697948874
Ago16 62.22400743 62.57752579 0.353518359
Sep16 61.65425182 62.36541477 0.711162948
Oct16 60.89738626 61.938717 1.041330743
Nov16 60.80940895 61.31391856 0.504509608
 Dic16 60.54973575 61.01121279 0.461477044
Ene17 60.65259743 60.73432657 0.081729133
Feb17 60.55129601 60.68528909 0.133993082
Mar17 60.21294297 60.60489324 0.391950269
Abr17 60.10100203 60.36972308 0.268721044
May17 59.75417943 60.20849045 0.454311021
Jun17 59.80691447 59.93590384 0.128989364
Jul17 59.75721339 59.85851022 0.101296832
Ago17 59.65577963 59.79773212 0.141952491
Sep17 59.49950312 59.71256063 0.213057509
Oct17 58.95680153 59.58472612 0.627924594
Nov17 58.99147739 59.20797136 0.216493974
Dic17 59.13553193 59.07807498 0.057456948
DAM 0.028728474

α 0.6

Yt+1'=αYt+(1-α)Yt'

Pronóstico-Semestral Doble(Yt')
120

100 100.4793842

80

60 59.07807498

40
y = -0.5125x + 104.06
R² = 0.9778
20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos Dobles del orden Semestral cuyos Pronósticos
son del orden Semestral t=6(dobles-α=0.6), de forma descendentes de acuerdo,
al periodo, como se ven los pronósticos para los años siguientes deberían ser
descendentes el aumento de los competidores en el mercado de telefonía en el
Perú, ya que a más competidores los precios del mercado descienden también
por aumento de la Oferta de los productos.
Como DAM (0.4)>DAM (0.6), Por lo tanto, el pronóstico DS de α=0.6, será el
mejor.

3.3 PROMEDIOS MOVILES DOBLES ANUALES (α=0.4)

Mes Pronóstico-Anual Doble(Yt) Pronóstico-Anual Doble(Yt') ‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬

Ene10
Feb10
Mar10
Abr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Ago10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dic10
Ene11
Feb11
Mar11
Abr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Ago11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dic11
Ene12 96.68688794 96.68688794 0
Feb12 96.23927961 96.68688794 0.447608337
Mar12 94.39309262 96.50784461 2.114751989
Abr12 92.61420947 95.66194381 3.04773434
May12 91.92281904 94.44285008 2.520031034
Jun12 91.44978431 93.43483766 1.985053358
Jul12 91.25230795 92.64081632 1.388508367
Ago12 90.7749022 92.08541297 1.310510774
Sep12 89.95228161 91.56120866 1.608927056
Oct12 89.14389364 90.91763784 1.773744203
Nov12 88.51398822 90.20814016 1.694151945
Dic12 87.99588835 89.53047938 1.534591034
Ene13 87.578804 88.91664297 1.337838969
Feb13 85.98004446 88.38150738 2.401462917
Mar13 84.96821129 87.42092221 2.452710927
Abr13 84.19146995 86.43983784 2.248367889
May13 83.74194331 85.54049069 1.798547377
Jun13 83.62725609 84.82107174 1.193815643
Jul13 83.30754228 84.34354548 1.036003197
Ago13 82.76282577 83.9291442 1.166318435
Sep13 82.08187881 83.46261683 1.380738013
Oct13 80.93365196 82.91032162 1.976669666
Nov13 80.10638507 82.11965376 2.01326869
Dic13 79.95364203 81.31434628 1.360704251
Ene14 78.77475473 80.77006458 1.995309853
Feb14 78.60237762 79.97194064 1.369563021
Mar14 78.26138162 79.42411543 1.162733807
Abr14 77.57343415 78.95902191 1.385587757
May14 77.30853524 78.4047868 1.096251567
Jun14 77.11262527 77.96628618 0.853660906
Jul14 76.15950309 77.62482181 1.465318725
Ago14 75.79983413 77.03869432 1.238860196
Sep14 75.03201136 76.54315025 1.51113889
Oct14 74.40153038 75.93869469 1.537164314
Nov14 74.27161968 75.32382896 1.052209281
Dic14 73.45727826 74.90294525 1.445666993
Ene15 73.34393968 74.32467846 0.980738773
Feb15 72.97135691 73.93238295 0.961026038
Mar15 72.49145066 73.54797253 1.05652187
Abr15 72.07314071 73.12536378 1.052223071
May15 71.61797902 72.70447455 1.086495532
Jun15 71.02571999 72.26987634 1.244156355
Jul15 70.73085479 71.7722138 1.041359005
Ago15 70.36519406 71.3556702 0.990476137
Sep15 70.13475979 70.95947974 0.824719955
Oct15 69.85419221 70.62959176 0.775399548
Nov15 68.86952435 70.31943194 1.449907589
Dic15 68.54992428 69.73946891 1.189544624
Ene16 67.88747839 69.26365106 1.376172667
Feb16 67.58689779 68.71318199 1.126284199
Mar16 67.26742093 68.26266831 0.995247382
Abr16 66.6145132 67.86456936 1.250056156
May16 66.24937903 67.3645469 1.115167869
Jun16 66.01102307 66.91847975 0.907456681
Jul16 65.67969765 66.55549708 0.875799425
Ago16 65.64810068 66.20517731 0.55707663
Sep16 65.41857886 65.98234665 0.563767792
Oct16 64.29033359 65.75683954 1.466505944
Nov16 63.65850223 65.17023716 1.511734924
 Dic16 63.21370869 64.56554319 1.351834498
Ene17 62.87226074 64.02480939 1.152548653
Feb17 62.65636371 63.56378993 0.907426219
Mar17 62.28937454 63.20081944 0.911444898
Abr17 61.7867249 62.83624148 1.049516582
May17 61.4982792 62.41643485 0.918155654
Jun17 61.36115677 62.04917259 0.688015822
Jul17 61.55281968 61.77396626 0.221146574
Ago17 61.48971429 61.68550763 0.195793338
Sep17 60.84813209 61.60719029 0.759058207
Oct17 60.37404895 61.30356701 0.929518063
Nov17 60.19881979 60.93175979 0.732939995
Dic17 60.04658814 60.63858379 0.591995645
DAM 1.259899389

α 0.4

Yt+1'=αYt+(1-α)Yt'

Pronóstico-Anual Doble(Yt')
120

100
96.68688794

80

60 60.63858379

40 y = -0.5137x + 107.27
R² = 0.9847

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos Dobles del orden Anual cuyos Pronósticos son
del orden anual t=12(dobles-α=0.4), de forma descendentes de acuerdo, al
periodo, como se ven los pronósticos para los años siguientes son de caída esto
se debe principalmente por el aumento de la Oferta del mercado de la telefonía
y la disminución de la Demanda de los consumidores en los últimos 10 años en
el Perú.
3.4 PROMEDIOS MOVILES DOBLES ANUALES (α=0.6)

Mes Pronóstico-Anual Doble(Yt) Pronóstico-Anual Doble(Yt') ‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬

Ene10
Feb10
Mar10
Abr10
May10
Jun10
Jul10
Ago10
Sep10
Oct10
Nov10
Dic10
Ene11
Feb11
Mar11
Abr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Ago11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dic11
Ene12 96.68688794 96.68688794 0
Feb12 96.23927961 96.68688794 0.447608337
Mar12 94.39309262 96.41832294 2.025230321
Abr12 92.61420947 95.20318475 2.588975276
May12 91.92281904 93.64979958 1.72698054
Jun12 91.44978431 92.61361126 1.163826953
Jul12 91.25230795 91.91531509 0.663007133
Ago12 90.7749022 91.51751081 0.742608607
Sep12 89.95228161 91.07194564 1.119664034
Oct12 89.14389364 90.40014722 1.256253583
Nov12 88.51398822 89.64639507 1.132406856
Dic12 87.99588835 88.96695096 0.971062609
Ene13 87.578804 88.38431339 0.805509392
Feb13 85.98004446 87.90100776 1.920963293
Mar13 84.96821129 86.74842978 1.780218494
Abr13 84.19146995 85.68029868 1.48882873
May13 83.74194331 84.78700145 1.045058136
Jun13 83.62725609 84.15996657 0.532710472
Jul13 83.30754228 83.84034028 0.532798
Ago13 82.76282577 83.52066148 0.757835717
Sep13 82.08187881 83.06596005 0.984081239
Oct13 80.93365196 82.47551131 1.541859354
Nov13 80.10638507 81.5503957 1.444010632
Dic13 79.95364203 80.68398932 0.73034729
Ene14 78.77475473 80.24578094 1.471026218
Feb14 78.60237762 79.36316521 0.760787597
Mar14 78.26138162 78.90669266 0.645311033
Abr14 77.57343415 78.51950604 0.946071886
May14 77.30853524 77.9518629 0.643327668
Jun14 77.11262527 77.5658663 0.453241033
Jul14 76.15950309 77.29392168 1.134418595
Ago14 75.79983413 76.61327053 0.813436398
Sep14 75.03201136 76.12520869 1.093197332
Oct14 74.40153038 75.46929029 1.067759913
Nov14 74.27161968 74.82863434 0.557014657
Dic14 73.45727826 74.49442555 1.037147287
Ene15 73.34393968 73.87213717 0.528197492
Feb15 72.97135691 73.55521868 0.583861771
Mar15 72.49145066 73.20490162 0.713450956
Abr15 72.07314071 72.77683104 0.703690331
May15 71.61797902 72.35461684 0.736637822
Jun15 71.02571999 71.91263415 0.886914164
Jul15 70.73085479 71.38048565 0.649630858
Ago15 70.36519406 70.99070714 0.625513077
Sep15 70.13475979 70.61539929 0.480639504
Oct15 69.85419221 70.32701559 0.472823377
Nov15 68.86952435 70.04332156 1.173797211
Dic15 68.54992428 69.33904324 0.789118954
Ene16 67.88747839 68.86557186 0.978093474
Feb16 67.58689779 68.27871578 0.691817989
Mar16 67.26742093 67.86362499 0.596204058
Abr16 66.6145132 67.50590255 0.89138935
May16 66.24937903 66.97106894 0.721689916
Jun16 66.01102307 66.53805499 0.527031926
Jul16 65.67969765 66.22183584 0.542138187
Ago16 65.64810068 65.89655293 0.24845225
Sep16 65.41857886 65.74748158 0.328902714
Oct16 64.29033359 65.55013995 1.259806354
Nov16 63.65850223 64.79425613 1.1357539
 Dic16 63.21370869 64.11280379 0.899095103
Ene17 62.87226074 63.57334673 0.701085996
Feb17 62.65636371 63.15269514 0.496331425
Mar17 62.28937454 62.85489628 0.565521737
Abr17 61.7867249 62.51558324 0.728858338
May17 61.4982792 62.07826824 0.579989039
Jun17 61.36115677 61.73027481 0.369118046
Jul17 61.55281968 61.50880398 0.044015701
Ago17 61.48971429 61.5352134 0.045499113
Sep17 60.84813209 61.50791394 0.65978185
Oct17 60.37404895 61.11204483 0.737995879
Nov17 60.19881979 60.6692473 0.470427509
Dic17 60.04658814 60.38699079 0.340402651
DAM 0.170201326
α 0.6

Yt+1'=αYt+(1-α)Yt'

Pronóstico-Anual Doble(Yt')
120

100
96.68688794

80

60 60.38699079
y = -0.5099x + 106.63
R² = 0.9832
40

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos Dobles del orden Anual cuyos Pronósticos son
del orden Anual t=12(dobles-α=0.6), de forma descendentes de acuerdo, al
periodo, como se ven los pronósticos para los años siguientes deberían ser
descendentes el aumento de los competidores en el mercado de telefonía en el
Perú, ya que a más competidores los precios del mercado descienden también
por aumento de la Oferta de los productos.
Como DAM (0.4)>DAM (0.6), Por lo tanto, el pronóstico DA de α=0.6, será el
mejor.

4. REALICE EL ANALISIS DE AUTOCORREACION RESIDUAL PARA

K=3. GRAFICAR

TARIFAS k=1 k=2 k=3

(Yt-ŷ)(Yt-1 - (Yt-ŷ)(Yt-2 -
TIEMPO Yt Yt-1 Yt-2 Yt-3 (Yt-ŷ)^2 ŷ) ŷ) (Yt-ŷ)(Yt-3 - ŷ)
Ene10 105.6702841 910.4502554
Feb10 105.3305845 105.6702841 11094.53203 910.4502554
Mar10 101.5897675 105.3305845 105.670284 10320.48086 890.0656819 910.4502554
Abr10 101.5640135 101.5897675 105.330584 105.670284 10315.24883 680.8525611 890.0656819 910.4502554
May10 101.3230068 101.5640135 101.589768 105.330584 10266.3517 679.5092169 680.8525611 890.0656819
Jun10 99.82714005 101.3230068 101.564013 101.589768 9965.457891 667.0024661 679.5092169 680.8525611
Jul10 99.46513135 99.82714005 101.323007 101.564013 9893.312354 591.9744057 667.0024661 679.5092169
Ago10 99.19876744 99.46513135 99.8271401 101.323007 9840.395461 574.489733 591.9744057 667.0024661
Sep10 96.46370449 99.19876744 99.4651313 99.8271401 9305.246284 561.7919878 574.489733 591.9744057
Oct10 96.60060845 96.46370449 99.1987674 99.4651313 9331.677553 439.6188041 561.7919878 574.489733
Nov10 96.59297238 96.60060845 96.4637045 99.1987674 9330.202314 445.3785018 439.6188041 561.7919878
Dic10 96.37401945 96.59297238 96.6006085 96.4637045 9287.951625 445.0562571 445.3785018 439.6188041
Ene11 95.99920359 96.37401945 96.5929724 96.6006085 9215.847089 435.8659792 445.0562571 445.3785018
Feb11 95.63357604 95.99920359 96.3740194 96.5929724 9145.780866 420.3561021 435.8659792 445.0562571
Mar11 92.22586507 95.63357604 95.9992036 96.3740194 8505.610188 405.4971639 420.3561021 435.8659792
Abr11 91.60213423 92.22586507 95.633576 95.9992036 8390.950995 279.8677781 405.4971639 420.3561021
May11 91.62385452 91.60213423 92.2258651 95.633576 8394.930717 259.3877208 279.8677781 405.4971639
Jun11 91.4261389 91.62385452 91.6021342 92.2258651 8358.738873 260.0878257 259.3877208 279.8677781
Jul11 90.7068766 91.4261389 91.6238545 91.6021342 8227.737462 253.749703 260.0878257 259.3877208
Ago11 90.46640044 90.7068766 91.4261389 91.6238545 8184.169609 231.3520307 253.749703 260.0878257
Sep11 88.98960617 90.46640044 90.7068766 91.4261389 7919.150005 224.0944495 231.3520307 253.749703
Oct11 88.71030136 88.98960617 90.4664004 90.7068766 7869.517567 182.0607865 224.0944495 231.3520307
Nov11 88.32922873 88.71030136 88.9896062 90.4664004 7802.052648 174.6014836 182.0607865 224.0944495
Dic11 87.62812677 88.32922873 88.7103014 88.9896062 7678.6886 164.6759522 174.6014836 182.0607865
Ene12 84.71545089 87.62812677 88.3292287 88.7103014 7176.707619 147.173556 164.6759522 174.6014836
Feb12 84.44109426 84.71545089 87.6281268 88.3292287 7130.2984 84.98691863 147.173556 164.6759522
Mar12 83.16400094 84.44109426 84.7154509 87.6281268 6916.251052 80.00369329 84.98691863 147.173556
Abr12 82.72428813 83.16400094 84.4410943 84.7154509 6843.307846 58.7887934 80.00369329 84.98691863
May12 82.69182268 82.72428813 83.1640009 84.4410943 6837.937537 52.23924588 58.7887934 80.00369329
Jun12 82.48708816 82.69182268 82.7242881 83.1640009 6804.119713 51.77100062 52.23924588 58.7887934
Jul12 82.41262105 82.48708816 82.6918227 82.7242881 6791.840109 48.86670251 51.77100062 52.23924588
Ago12 81.99575377 82.41262105 82.4870882 82.6918227 6723.303637 47.83112738 48.86670251 51.77100062
Sep12 80.04237776 81.99575377 82.4126211 82.4870882 6406.782237 42.23879317 47.83112738 48.86670251
Oct12 78.95107648 80.04237776 81.9957538 82.4126211 6233.272477 20.66395092 42.23879317 47.83112738
Nov12 79.05975888 78.95107648 80.0423778 81.9957538 6250.445475 11.93329794 20.66395092 42.23879317
Dic12 78.85570004 79.05975888 78.9510765 80.0423778 6218.221429 12.69598795 11.93329794 20.66395092
Ene13 78.76479155 78.85570004 79.0597589 78.9510765 6203.892388 11.2834463 12.69598795 11.93329794
Feb13 78.83574372 78.76479155 78.8557 79.0597589 6215.074488 10.68097211 11.2834463 12.69598795
Mar13 77.89534247 78.83574372 78.7647915 78.8557 6067.684379 11.14977463 10.68097211 11.2834463
Abr13 77.69924013 77.89534247 78.8357437 78.7647915 6037.171917 5.753889194 11.14977463 10.68097211
May13 77.54911621 77.69924013 77.8953425 78.8357437 6013.865425 4.851553524 5.753889194 11.14977463
Jun13 75.75966051 77.54911621 77.6992401 77.8953425 5739.526161 4.212757552 4.851553524 5.753889194
Jul13 75.34640154 75.75966051 77.5491162 77.6992401 5677.080226 0.06919247 4.212757552 4.851553524
Ago13 74.93955095 75.34640154 75.7596605 77.5491162 5615.936296 0.022564351 0.06919247 4.212757552
Sep13 74.19415857 74.93955095 75.3464015 75.7596605 5504.773166 0.310321357 0.022564351 0.06919247
Oct13 74.06692358 74.19415857 74.9395509 75.3464015 5485.909169 1.696395088 0.310321357 0.022564351
Nov13 72.67216794 74.06692358 74.1941586 74.9395509 5281.243993 2.044020106 1.696395088 0.310321357
Dic13 72.43883311 72.67216794 74.0669236 74.1941586 5247.384542 7.977506268 2.044020106 1.696395088
Ene14 72.21003812 72.43883311 72.6721679 74.0669236 5214.289605 9.350035579 7.977506268 2.044020106
Feb14 71.77876353 72.21003812 72.4388331 72.6721679 5152.190894 10.80159349 9.350035579 7.977506268
Mar14 71.14383801 71.77876353 72.2100381 72.4388331 5061.445687 13.8224262 10.80159349 9.350035579
Abr14 70.8651805 71.14383801 71.7787635 72.2100381 5021.873807 18.9466753 13.8224262 10.80159349
May14 70.70607028 70.8651805 71.143838 71.7787635 4999.348375 21.45019382 18.9466753 13.8224262
Jun14 70.51077965 70.70607028 70.8651805 71.143838 4971.770047 22.94932726 21.45019382 18.9466753
Jul14 70.20656577 70.51077965 70.7060703 70.8651805 4928.961878 24.85856302 22.94932726 21.45019382
Ago14 70.26672789 70.20656577 70.5107797 70.7060703 4937.413048 27.98463027 24.85856302 22.94932726
Sep14 69.89287269 70.26672789 70.2065658 70.5107797 4885.013653 27.35172854 27.98463027 24.85856302
Oct14 69.62907713 69.89287269 70.2667279 70.2065658 4848.208381 31.40193792 27.35172854 27.98463027
Nov14 69.73330097 69.62907713 69.8928727 70.2667279 4862.733264 34.42801121 31.40193792 27.35172854
Dic14 68.62960768 69.73330097 69.6290771 69.8928727 4710.02305 33.21579894 34.42801121 31.40193792
Ene15 68.51293311 68.62960768 69.733301 69.6290771 4694.022004 47.15580181 33.21579894 34.42801121
Feb15 68.3056467 68.51293311 68.6296077 69.733301 4665.661371 48.77182521 47.15580181 33.21579894
Mar15 67.19243888 68.3056467 68.5129331 68.6296077 4514.823842 51.71003801 48.77182521 47.15580181
Abr15 66.93107887 67.19243888 68.3056467 68.5129331 4479.769319 68.95935592 51.71003801 48.77182521
May15 66.55545833 66.93107887 67.1924389 68.3056467 4429.629033 73.36842449 68.95935592 51.71003801
Jun15 66.10809375 66.55545833 66.9310789 67.1924389 4370.280059 79.94429865 73.36842449 68.95935592
Jul15 65.8114248 66.10809375 66.5554583 66.9310789 4331.143635 88.14434809 79.94429865 73.36842449
Ago15 65.56409989 65.8114248 66.1080937 66.5554583 4298.651195 93.80292649 88.14434809 79.94429865
Sep15 63.54777522 65.56409989 65.8114248 66.1080937 4038.319736 98.65487414 93.80292649 88.14434809
Oct15 62.29426209 63.54777522 65.5640999 65.8114248 3880.575089 142.7747934 98.65487414 93.80292649
Nov15 62.08066008 62.29426209 63.5477752 65.5640999 3854.008356 174.3021461 142.7747934 98.65487414
Dic15 61.54296141 62.08066008 62.2942621 63.5477752 3787.536099 179.9878704 174.3021461 142.7747934
Ene16 61.31455231 61.54296141 62.0806601 62.2942621 3759.474325 194.7044735 179.9878704 174.3021461
Feb16 61.20799455 61.31455231 61.5429614 62.0806601 3746.418597 201.1309275 194.7044735 179.9878704
Mar16 60.42928808 61.20799455 61.3145523 61.5429614 3651.698858 204.1646999 201.1309275 194.7044735
Abr16 60.42239596 60.42928808 61.2079946 61.3145523 3650.865934 227.0243675 204.1646999 201.1309275
May16 60.29603733 60.42239596 60.4292881 61.2079946 3635.612118 227.2321066 227.0243675 204.1646999
Jun16 60.7028252 60.29603733 60.422396 60.4292881 3684.832988 231.0575887 227.2321066 227.0243675
Jul16 60.65324297 60.7028252 60.2960373 60.422396 3678.815883 218.856243 231.0575887 227.2321066
Ago16 60.4367068 60.65324297 60.7028252 60.2960373 3652.595529 220.3257197 218.856243 231.0575887
Sep16 60.3121838 60.4367068 60.653243 60.7028252 3637.559515 226.8008619 220.3257197 218.856243
Oct16 60.06390692 60.3121838 60.4367068 60.653243 3607.672915 230.5669781 226.8008619 220.3257197
Nov16 59.89018702 60.06390692 60.3121838 60.4367068 3586.834501 238.1685062 230.5669781 226.8008619
Dic16 59.69070352 59.89018702 60.0639069 60.3121838 3562.980087 243.5606223 238.1685062 230.5669781
Ene17 59.54907019 59.69070352 59.890187 60.0639069 3546.091761 249.8268659 243.5606223 238.1685062
Feb17 59.35724457 59.54907019 59.6907035 59.890187 3523.282483 254.3242139 249.8268659 243.5606223
Mar17 58.59286653 59.35724457 59.5490702 59.6907035 3433.124009 260.4793067 254.3242139 249.8268659
Abr17 58.74445865 58.59286653 59.3572446 59.5490702 3450.911423 285.7367424 260.4793067 254.3242139
May17 58.99420353 58.74445865 58.5928665 59.3572446 3480.31605 280.6347722 285.7367424 260.4793067
Jun17 59.08827133 58.99420353 58.7444587 58.5928665 3491.423809 272.3296139 280.6347722 285.7367424
Jul17 58.97133952 59.08827133 58.9942035 58.7444587 3477.618885 269.2337714 272.3296139 280.6347722
Ago17 58.57756611 58.97133952 59.0882713 58.9942035 3431.331251 273.0847592 269.2337714 272.3296139
Sep17 58.58680523 58.57756611 58.9713395 59.0882713 3432.413748 286.2542456 273.0847592 269.2337714
Oct17 58.86301713 58.58680523 58.5775661 58.9713395 3464.854785 285.9416966 286.2542456 273.0847592
Nov17 58.97934642 58.86301713 58.5868052 58.5775661 3478.563304 276.6766079 285.9416966 286.2542456
Dic17 58.8869811 58.97934642 58.8630171 58.5868052 3467.676543 272.8201909 276.6766079 285.9416966
n ŷ TOTALES 555447.1722 18252.10581 17979.28562 17702.60901
96 75.49661589

r1 r2 r3
ri 0.032860201 0.032369029 0.031870914
Error Estándar de AC(SE(ri)) 0.102062073 0.115213853 0.115334246
Disribución t: 1.985251004
Analsis de Variabilidad
Límites de Significancia 0.202618832 0.228728417 0.228967427
ri 0.032860201 0.032369029 0.031870914
HIPÓTESIS H0: ri<=LS(SE(ri)) H0: ri<=LS(SE(ri)) H0: ri<=LS(SE(ri))
H1: ri>LS(SE(ri)) H1: ri>LS(SE(ri)) H1: ri>LS(SE(ri))
SE ACEPTA H0 SE ACEPTA H0 SE ACEPTA H0
 Comparación ri VS LS(SE(ri))
0.25
0.228728417 0.228967427

0.202618832
0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05 0.032860201 0.032369029 0.031870914

0
1 2 3

Limites de Significancia ri

Interpretación:
Se trata de una serie de tiempos, aplicando una autocorrelación de K=3(con el
método de D.W), en ella observamos que la autocorrelación no es necesaria en
este ejercicio ya que es menor que la L(SE), por lo que los valores deben seguir
una tendencia como ya lo vimos en os preguntas anteriores son de orden
descendentes, esto se be generalmente cuando la Oferta en el mercado es
mayor que la Demanda generada por los consumidores.
 5. UTILIZANDO EL MÉTODO DE ALISADO EXPONENCIAL EVALUE
CON α=0.2,0.5,0.6 GRAFICAR EL PRONÓSTICO:
Pronóstico- Pronóstico-
Pronóstico- Trimestral(Yt')- Pronóstico- Trimestral(Yt')-
Trimestral(Yt) α=0.2 α=0.2-‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬ Trimestral(Yt')-α=0.5 α=0.5-‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬ α=0.6 α=0.6-‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬

103.6300258 103.6300258 0 103.6300258 0 103.6300258 0

103.447299 103.6300258 0.182726841 103.6300258 0.182726841 103.6300258 0.182726841
101.4563871 103.5934805 2.137093312 103.5386624 2.08227526 103.447299 1.990911839
100.6955768 103.1660618 2.470485028 102.4975248 1.801948008 101.4563871 0.760810378
100.3940691 102.6719648 2.277895725 101.5965508 1.202481707 100.6955768 0.301507703
99.51295374 102.2163856 2.703431898 100.9953099 1.482356171 100.3940691 0.881115318
97.96441792 101.6756993 3.711281346 100.2541318 2.289713913 99.51295374 1.548535828
97.89968794 100.933443 3.03375505 99.10927487 1.209586929 97.96441792 0.064729973
96.52833844 100.326692 3.798353548 98.50448141 1.976142973 97.89968794 1.371349509
96.48731395 99.56702127 3.079707324 97.51640992 1.029095972 96.52833844 0.041024486
96.29608799 98.95107981 2.654991824 97.00186194 0.705773951 96.48731395 0.191225965
96.00379775 98.42008144 2.416283699 96.64897496 0.645177215 96.29608799 0.29229024
94.11253433 97.9368247 3.824290375 96.32638635 2.213852023 96.00379775 1.891263416
93.61785513 97.17196663 3.554111496 95.21946034 1.601605207 94.11253433 0.494679196
91.9248598 96.46114433 4.536284533 94.41865774 2.49379794 93.61785513 1.692995336
91.51413656 95.55388742 4.039750863 93.17175877 1.657622206 91.9248598 0.410723236
91.16536556 94.74593725 3.580571691 92.34294766 1.177582104 91.51413656 0.348771001
90.94626967 94.02982291 3.083553243 91.75415661 0.807886942 91.16536556 0.21909589
89.84824138 93.41311226 3.564870882 91.35021314 1.501971759 90.94626967 1.098028288
89.5883509 92.70013809 3.111787186 90.59922726 1.010876359 89.84824138 0.25989048
88.65941745 92.07778065 3.418363202 90.09378908 1.434371633 89.5883509 0.928933454
88.16921406 91.39410801 3.224893948 89.37660327 1.207389203 88.65941745 0.490203386
86.52233981 90.74912922 4.226789411 88.77290866 2.250568854 88.16921406 1.646874253
86.03461051 89.90377134 3.869160824 87.64762424 1.613013722 86.52233981 0.487729295
83.93972591 89.12993917 5.190213261 86.84111738 2.901391463 86.03461051 2.094884602
83.58269119 88.09189652 4.509205327 85.39042164 1.80773045 83.93972591 0.357034718
82.92791181 87.19005546 4.26214365 84.48655642 1.558644613 83.58269119 0.654779388
82.60568814 86.33762673 3.731938583 83.70723411 1.10154597 82.92791181 0.322223663
82.55222187 85.59123901 3.039017145 83.15646113 0.604239263 82.60568814 0.053466278
82.24142097 84.98343558 2.742014613 82.8543415 0.612920529 82.55222187 0.310800898
81.22749941 84.43503266 3.207533251 82.54788123 1.320381825 82.24142097 1.013921561
80.47341513 83.79352601 3.320110881 81.88769032 1.414275192 81.22749941 0.754084279
79.55106832 83.12950383 3.578435511 81.18055272 1.629484403 80.47341513 0.922346807
78.90338826 82.41381673 3.510428469 80.36581052 1.462422261 79.55106832 0.64768006
78.91227522 81.71173104 2.79945582 79.63459939 0.722324175 78.90338826 0.008886955
78.84572188 81.15183987 2.306117992 79.2734373 0.427715424 78.91227522 0.066553336
78.33006701 80.69061627 2.360549263 79.05957959 0.729512581 78.84572188 0.515654869
78.26749192 80.21850642 1.951014496 78.6948233 0.427331377 78.33006701 0.062575086
77.72222934 79.82830352 2.10607418 78.48115761 0.758928271 78.26749192 0.545262583
76.72945032 79.40708869 2.677638366 78.10169348 1.372243157 77.72222934 0.992779022
76.44775888 78.87156101 2.423802135 77.4155719 0.967813021 76.72945032 0.281691442
75.34960573 78.38680059 3.037194858 76.93166539 1.58205966 76.44775888 1.09815315
74.77028006 77.77936161 3.009081558 76.14063556 1.370355502 75.34960573 0.579325672
74.50323726 77.1775453 2.674308038 75.45545781 0.952220542 74.77028006 0.267042791
73.43316325 76.64268369 3.209520443 74.97934754 1.546184284 74.50323726 1.070074013
73.25287834 76.00077961 2.747901262 74.20625539 0.953377049 73.43316325 0.180284907
72.44110303 75.45119935 3.010096327 73.72956687 1.288463843 73.25287834 0.811775318
72.10879832 74.84918009 2.74038177 73.08533495 0.97653663 72.44110303 0.332304708
71.67693806 74.30110373 2.624165671 72.59706663 0.920128569 72.10879832 0.431860254
71.32197201 73.7762706 2.454298585 72.13700235 0.815030334 71.67693806 0.354966049
70.92495415 73.28541088 2.360456736 71.72948718 0.804533035 71.32197201 0.397017868
70.68798008 72.81331954 2.125339459 71.32722066 0.639240588 70.92495415 0.23697407
70.45631803 72.38825164 1.931933615 71.00760037 0.551282342 70.68798008 0.231662048
70.38875377 72.00186492 1.613111149 70.7319592 0.343205428 70.45631803 0.067564257
70.04971923 71.67924269 1.62952346 70.56035649 0.510637254 70.38875377 0.33903454
69.94790251 71.353338 1.405435491 70.30503786 0.357135351 70.04971923 0.101816724
69.81308683 71.0722509 1.259164073 70.12647018 0.313383355 69.94790251 0.134815679
69.1293424 70.82041809 1.691075683 69.96977851 0.840436103 69.81308683 0.683744425
69.12311704 70.48220295 1.35908591 69.54956045 0.426443414 69.1293424 0.006225363
68.46762719 70.21038577 1.742758579 69.33633875 0.868711559 69.12311704 0.655489851
67.85268599 69.86183405 2.009148057 68.90198297 1.049296973 68.46762719 0.614941194
67.61836278 69.46000444 1.841641656 68.37733448 0.758971697 67.85268599 0.234323211
66.8739486 69.09167611 2.217727507 67.99784863 1.12390003 67.61836278 0.744414182
66.51958631 68.64813061 2.128544298 67.43589862 0.916312308 66.8739486 0.354362292
66.18344156 68.22242175 2.038980184 66.97774246 0.794300899 66.51958631 0.336144745
65.83609682 67.81462571 1.978528892 66.58059201 0.744495194 66.18344156 0.347344745
64.67960001 67.41891993 2.739319921 66.20834442 1.528744405 65.83609682 1.156496808
63.92918099 66.87105595 2.94187496 65.44397221 1.514791226 64.67960001 0.750419024
62.81421765 66.28268096 3.468463306 64.6865766 1.87235895 63.92918099 1.114963337
61.91861175 65.5889883 3.670376548 63.75039713 1.831785379 62.81421765 0.895605903
61.6976062 64.85491299 3.157306791 62.83450444 1.136898242 61.91861175 0.221005552
61.37547798 64.22345163 2.847973647 62.26605532 0.890577335 61.6976062 0.322128214
60.87192019 63.6538569 2.781936704 61.82076665 0.948846454 61.37547798 0.503557787
60.81519526 63.09746956 2.282274301 61.34634342 0.531148165 60.87192019 0.056724938
60.3626627 62.6410147 2.278351993 61.08076934 0.718106634 60.81519526 0.452532552
60.56261058 62.1853443 1.622733716 60.72171602 0.159105439 60.3626627 0.199947878
60.47464015 61.86079756 1.386157404 60.6421633 0.167523151 60.56261058 0.087970431
60.569766 61.58356608 1.013800072 60.55840173 0.011364276 60.47464015 0.095125851
60.48271339 61.38080606 0.898092675 60.56408387 0.081370479 60.569766 0.087052617
 60.25030686 61.20118753 0.950880663 60.52339863 0.273091762 60.48271339 0.232406523
60.10118541 61.01101139 0.909825985 60.38685274 0.285667336 60.25030686 0.149121455
59.87730522 60.8290462 0.951740972 60.24401908 0.366713852 60.10118541 0.223880184
59.7196286 60.638698 0.919069397 60.06066215 0.341033545 59.87730522 0.157676619
59.52397405 60.45488412 0.930910075 59.89014538 0.36617133 59.7196286 0.195654558
59.07096836 60.26870211 1.197733744 59.70705971 0.636091349 59.52397405 0.453005684
59.05085161 60.02915536 0.978303746 59.38901404 0.338162426 59.07096836 0.020116751
58.79353503 59.83349461 1.039959578 59.21993282 0.426397794 59.05085161 0.257316581
58.91636499 59.62550269 0.709137702 59.00673393 0.090368937 58.79353503 0.12282996
58.98277153 59.48367515 0.500903628 58.96154946 0.021222065 58.91636499 0.066406534
58.83291872 59.38349443 0.550575708 58.97216049 0.139241773 58.98277153 0.149852806
58.77907238 59.27337929 0.494306907 58.90253961 0.123467227 58.83291872 0.053846341
58.72029162 59.1745179 0.454226285 58.84080599 0.120514373 58.77907238 0.058780759
58.78307583 59.08367265 0.300596819 58.78054881 0.002527022 58.72029162 0.062784209
DAM 0.15029841 0.001263511 0.031392104

0.2 0.5 0.6

Yt+1'=αYt+(1-α)Yt'
DAM 0.15029841 0.001263511 0.0313921

DAM-PRONOSTICADO
0.16 0.15029841

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.08

0.06

0.04 0.031392104

0.02
0.001263511
0
1 2 3

Interpretación:
Como DAM (0.2)>DAM (0.6)>DAM (0.5), Por lo tanto, el pronóstico ST de α=0.5,
será el mejor, generalmente esto se debe a la poca demanda del mercado donde
se éste generando la competencia de este rubro, en nuestro caso el de telefonía.

P2:
1. REALIZAR EL GRÁFICO DE DISPERSIÓN:

MES - AÑO Tipo de Cambio(X) Exportaciones(Y)

Ene-95 2.185272727 420.6828392
Feb-95 2.2108 447.1587037
Mar-95 2.254173913 418.825017
Abr-95 2.25425 359.7704137
May-95 2.248409091 465.2926624
Jun-95 2.241166667 531.3936518
Jul-95 2.229325 490.5700637
Ago-95 2.239295455 477.809722
Set-95 2.24652381 486.8425581
Oct-95 2.257931818 426.1074538
Nov-95 2.313809524 456.3805056
Dic-95 2.323157895 510.581467
Ene-96 2.349954545 440.3790493
Feb-96 2.354380952 460.7223725
Mar-96 2.356 522.9336736
Abr-96 2.3648 432.7953426
May-96 2.410704545 471.871313
Jun-96 2.4419 553.9781952
Jul-96 2.444545455 542.5510428
Ago-96 2.467142857 498.956437
Set-96 2.493833333 449.6892903
Oct-96 2.556477273 478.0016045
Nov-96 2.585275 487.1814569
Dic-96 2.583738095 538.5840148
Ene-97 2.627204545 557.5252051
Feb-97 2.6381 494.1939143
Mar-97 2.632763158 563.1093158
Abr-97 2.662159091 499.5285917
May-97 2.663857143 633.1287395
Jun-97 2.655214286 725.853971
Jul-97 2.650880952 597.1585999
Ago-97 2.653380952 650.1026523
Set-97 2.644022727 518.6614159
Oct-97 2.664409091 551.0648947
Nov-97 2.720725 473.9772241
Dic-97 2.716809524 560.2524368
 Ene-98 2.745833333 415.3076248
Feb-98 2.80055 368.6767198
Mar-98 2.805227273 413.792651
Abr-98 2.820075 397.7564471
May-98 2.84445 463.2891622
Jun-98 2.90847619 478.2410098
Jul-98 2.91852381 517.8135619
Ago-98 2.962261905 536.3181928
Set-98 3.042545455 510.2043512
Oct-98 3.049575 525.244753
Nov-98 3.093738095 525.1394213
Dic-98 3.136571429 604.990945
Ene-99 3.253525 528.2013467
Feb-99 3.3972 420.7010444

Exportaciones(Y)
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Interpretación:
Se trata de un diagrama de dispersión entre la variable independiente (tipo de
cambio) y la variable dependiente exportaciones, como vemos el diagrama de
dispersión nos dice que existe mucha dependencia entre las variables, esto
generalmente se da cuando las variables son del mismo tipo o rubro en el su
desarrollo económico o administrativos, como en este caso de nuestro ejercicio.
En los últimos años en el Perú el tipo de cambio en el mercado donde se
efectuarán las exportaciones determinan el riesgo económico en el cual incurre
el exportador.
 2. REALIZAR EL GRÁFICO DE LA LAS ESTIMACIONES:

MES -
AÑO Tipo de Cambio(X) Exportaciones(Y) Tipo de Cambio(Xp) Exportaciones(Yp)
Ene-95 2.185272727 420.6828392 2.185272727 476.9941825
Feb-95 2.2108 447.1587037 2.2108 478.2786128
Mar-95 2.254173913 418.825017 2.254173913 480.4610146
Abr-95 2.25425 359.7704137 2.25425 480.464843
May-95 2.248409091 465.2926624 2.248409091 480.1709518
Jun-95 2.241166667 531.3936518 2.241166667 479.806542
Jul-95 2.229325 490.5700637 2.229325 479.2107167
Ago-95 2.239295455 477.809722 2.239295455 479.7123901
Set-95 2.24652381 486.8425581 2.24652381 480.076092
Oct-95 2.257931818 426.1074538 2.257931818 480.6500974
Nov-95 2.313809524 456.3805056 2.313809524 483.46164
Dic-95 2.323157895 510.581467 2.323157895 483.9320126
Ene-96 2.349954545 440.3790493 2.349954545 485.2803129
Feb-96 2.354380952 460.7223725 2.354380952 485.503032
Mar-96 2.356 522.9336736 2.356 485.584496
Abr-96 2.3648 432.7953426 2.3648 486.0272768
May-96 2.410704545 471.871313 2.410704545 488.3370099
Jun-96 2.4419 553.9781952 2.4419 489.9066404
Jul-96 2.444545455 542.5510428 2.444545455 490.0397491
Ago-96 2.467142857 498.956437 2.467142857 491.17676
Set-96 2.493833333 449.6892903 2.493833333 492.519718
Oct-96 2.556477273 478.0016045 2.556477273 495.6717105
Nov-96 2.585275 487.1814569 2.585275 497.1206969
Dic-96 2.583738095 538.5840148 2.583738095 497.043366
Ene-97 2.627204545 557.5252051 2.627204545 499.2304239
Feb-97 2.6381 494.1939143 2.6381 499.7786396
Mar-97 2.632763158 563.1093158 2.632763158 499.5101111
Abr-97 2.662159091 499.5285917 2.662159091 500.9891968
May-97 2.663857143 633.1287395 2.663857143 501.074636
Jun-97 2.655214286 725.853971 2.655214286 500.639762
Jul-97 2.650880952 597.1585999 2.650880952 500.421726
Ago-97 2.653380952 650.1026523 2.653380952 500.547516
Set-97 2.644022727 518.6614159 2.644022727 500.0766475
Oct-97 2.664409091 551.0648947 2.664409091 501.1024078
Nov-97 2.720725 473.9772241 2.720725 503.9359991
Dic-97 2.716809524 560.2524368 2.716809524 503.738988
Ene-98 2.745833333 415.3076248 2.745833333 505.19935
 Feb-98 2.80055 368.6767198 2.80055 507.9524738
Mar-98 2.805227273 413.792651 2.805227273 508.1878155
Abr-98 2.820075 397.7564471 2.820075 508.9348937
May-98 2.84445 463.2891622 2.84445 510.1613462
Jun-98 2.90847619 478.2410098 2.90847619 513.382888
Jul-98 2.91852381 517.8135619 2.91852381 513.888444
Ago-98 2.962261905 536.3181928 2.962261905 516.08917
Set-98 3.042545455 510.2043512 3.042545455 520.1287171
Oct-98 3.049575 525.244753 3.049575 520.4824157
Nov-98 3.093738095 525.1394213 3.093738095 522.704526
Dic-98 3.136571429 604.990945 3.136571429 524.859728
Ene-99 3.253525 528.2013467 3.253525 530.7443639
Feb-99 3.3972 420.7010444 3.3972 537.9735152

Exportaciones(Y)
800
y = 50.316x + 367.04
700 R² = 0.0454

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Interpretación:
Como observamos las estimaciones son aleatorias dependiendo exclusivamente
del tipo del cambio del mercado donde se efectuarán las exportaciones, es por
eso, que en los últimos 15 años las exportaciones peruanas se orientan al
mercado europeo que es el que presenta un tipo de cambio menos fluctuante,
con lo que garantiza un mejor intercambio comercial entre sus importaciones é
exportaciones.
 3. ANALIZAR E INTERPRETAR LOS COEFICIENTES DEL MODELO:

RECTA DE REGRESIÓN LINEAL:

Yp=50.316X+367.04

Exportaciones(Y)
800
y = 50.316x + 367.04
700 R² = 0.0454

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Interpretación:
PENDIENTE: b=β=50.316
Cuando se incremente en una unidad al tipo de cambio, entonces las
exportaciones aumentarán en 50.316 unidades.
INTERCEPTO: a=α=367.04
Cuando el tipo de cambio sea cero, entonces las exportaciones serán de 367.04
unidades.
 4. REALIZAR E INTERPRETAR ANVA

MES
- Tipo de
AÑO Cambio(X) Exportaciones(Y) Yi^2 Xi*Yi
1 2.185272727 420.6828392 176974.0512 919.3067352
2 2.2108 447.1587037 199950.9063 988.5784621
3 2.254173913 418.825017 175414.3949 944.1044274
4 2.25425 359.7704137 129434.7506 811.0124551
5 2.248409091 465.2926624 216497.2617 1046.168252
6 2.241166667 531.3936518 282379.2132 1190.941739
7 2.229325 490.5700637 240658.9874 1093.640107
8 2.239295455 477.809722 228302.1304 1069.957139
9 2.24652381 486.8425581 237015.6764 1093.703398
10 2.257931818 426.1074538 181567.5622 962.1215778
11 2.313809524 456.3805056 208283.1659 1055.97756
12 2.323157895 510.581467 260693.4344 1186.161366
13 2.349954545 440.3790493 193933.7071 1034.870748
14 2.354380952 460.7223725 212265.1045 1084.715978
15 2.356 522.9336736 273459.627 1232.031735
16 2.3648 432.7953426 187311.8086 1023.474426
17 2.410704545 471.871313 222662.536 1137.542319
18 2.4419 553.9781952 306891.8408 1352.759355
19 2.444545455 542.5510428 294361.634 1326.290686
20 2.467142857 498.956437 248957.526 1230.996809
21 2.493833333 449.6892903 202220.4578 1121.450142
22 2.556477273 478.0016045 228485.5339 1222.000238
23 2.585275 487.1814569 237345.7719 1259.498041
24 2.583738095 538.5840148 290072.741 1391.560036
25 2.627204545 557.5252051 310834.3543 1464.732753
26 2.6381 494.1939143 244227.6249 1303.732965
27 2.632763158 563.1093158 317092.1015 1482.533461
28 2.662159091 499.5285917 249528.8139 1329.824582
29 2.663857143 633.1287395 400852.0008 1686.564515
30 2.655214286 725.853971 526863.9872 1927.297833
31 2.650880952 597.1585999 356598.3934 1582.996358
32 2.653380952 650.1026523 422633.4585 1724.969994
33 2.644022727 518.6614159 269009.6643 1371.352571
34 2.664409091 551.0648947 303672.5182 1468.262315
35 2.720725 473.9772241 224654.409 1289.561683
36 2.716809524 560.2524368 313882.7929 1522.099156
 37 2.745833333 415.3076248 172480.4232 1140.36552
38 2.80055 368.6767198 135922.5237 1032.497588
39 2.805227273 413.792651 171224.358 1160.78243
40 2.820075 397.7564471 158210.1912 1121.703013
41 2.84445 463.2891622 214636.8478 1317.802857
42 2.90847619 478.2410098 228714.4635 1390.95259
43 2.91852381 517.8135619 268130.8849 1511.25121
44 2.962261905 536.3181928 287637.2039 1588.714951
45 3.042545455 510.2043512 260308.48 1552.31993
46 3.049575 525.244753 275882.0506 1601.773268
47 3.093738095 525.1394213 275771.4118 1624.643833
48 3.136571429 604.990945 366014.0435 1897.597313
49 3.253525 528.2013467 278996.6627 1718.516287
50 3.3972 420.7010444 176989.3688 1429.205588
n ẋ ŷ 12645908.86 65020.9183
50 2.602418938 497.9858609

n(ŷ^2) 12399495.88
RECTA DE REGRESIÓN
LINEAL: Yp=50.316X+367.04
b 50.316
SCT 246412.9754
SCR 11196.64505
SCE 235216.3303

ANVA
Fuente de
Variación GL SC CME Fcal Ftabla
Regresión 1 11196.64505 11196.64505 2.28487096 0.82401224
Error 48 235216.3303 4900.340216
Total 49 246412.9754

Interpretación:
Como Fcal > Ftabla, entonces rechazamos Ho y aceptamos H1, por lo que los
coeficientes de la Recta de Regresión no están bien correlacionados, esto
generalmente se debe a que las exportaciones fluctúan según el cambio de
moneda en el país donde son negociadas o porque son hechas por micro
empresas y no multinacionales que dependen del tipo de cambio monetario para
realizar sus exportaciones.
 5. GRÁFICAR LOS INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA CON UN NIVEL DE
SIGNIFICANCIA DEL 95%.

Tipo de Cambio(X) Campana Gauss(X) Exportaciones(Y) Campana Gauss(Y)

2.185272727 0.545646206 420.6828392 0.003334839
2.2108 0.608919029 447.1587037 0.004556437
2.254173913 0.721655596 418.825017 0.003245565
2.25425 0.721857443 359.7704137 0.000958002
2.248409091 0.706393634 465.2926624 0.005206384
2.241166667 0.687317682 531.3936518 0.004866322
2.229325 0.656408783 490.5700637 0.005621817
2.239295455 0.682408899 477.809722 0.005494686
2.24652381 0.701416815 486.8425581 0.005603105
2.257931818 0.731636423 426.1074538 0.003595661
2.313809524 0.881006402 456.3805056 0.004916138
2.323157895 0.905754516 510.581467 0.005459304
2.349954545 0.975366471 440.3790493 0.004262664
2.354380952 0.986613894 460.7223725 0.005065446
2.356 0.990706464 522.9336736 0.005152428
2.3648 1.012734988 432.7953426 0.003913817
2.410704545 1.120147925 471.871313 0.005376815
2.4419 1.183696201 553.9781952 0.003896645
2.444545455 1.188658645 542.5510428 0.004415985
2.467142857 1.228017907 498.956437 0.00560722
2.493833333 1.266921906 449.6892903 0.004660278
2.556477273 1.3215305 478.0016045 0.005497894
2.585275 1.327904922 487.1814569 0.005605443
2.583738095 1.327872112 538.5840148 0.0045841
2.627204545 1.315451953 557.5252051 0.003728475
2.6381 1.308057941 494.1939143 0.005625149
2.632763158 1.311890064 563.1093158 0.003460717
2.662159091 1.285873004 499.5285917 0.005603369
2.663857143 1.284010378 633.1287395 0.00080307
2.655214286 1.293089029 725.853971 2.5882E-05
2.650880952 1.297260834 597.1585999 0.001921088
2.653380952 1.294885261 650.1026523 0.000486631
2.644022727 1.303336648 518.6614159 0.005274637
2.664409091 1.283396687 551.0648947 0.004032875
2.720725 1.20080441 473.9772241 0.005422672
2.716809524 1.207742728 560.2524368 0.003597997
 2.745833333 1.152587028 415.3076248 0.003077246
2.80055 1.028912642 368.6767198 0.001203851
2.805227273 1.017410728 413.792651 0.003005188
2.820075 0.980168231 397.7564471 0.002273998
2.84445 0.917091326 463.2891622 0.005146755
2.90847619 0.746302307 478.2410098 0.005501843
2.91852381 0.719580373 517.8135619 0.005296946
2.962261905 0.60601932 536.3181928 0.004676406
3.042545455 0.418420087 510.2043512 0.005466346
3.049575 0.403691793 525.244753 0.005079813
3.093738095 0.31830149 525.1394213 0.005083217
3.136571429 0.247611076 604.990945 0.001623988
3.253525 0.112461954 528.2013467 0.004980687
3.3972 0.034660701 420.7010444 0.003335715

n ẋ ŷ
50 2.602418938 497.9858609
S 0.300429077 70.91428793
NC 95% 95%

5.1 INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA PARA EL TIPO DE CAMBIO(X):

DATOS INTERVALOS
MEDIA(ẋ) 2.58595762 LI 2.50268446
DESV(S) 0.30042908 LS 2.66923078
NC 95%
TAMAÑO(n) 50
Z 1.95996398
Alfa 0.05

INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA(X)
1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Interpretación:
El intervalo de confianza para el tipo de cambio(X), estará determinado por
[2.50268446; 2.66923078], el cual determina que su media será: ẋ=2.58595762.
5.2 INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA PARA LAS EXPORTACIONES(Y):

DATOS INTERVALOS
MEDIA(ŷ) 493.204294 LI 493.121021
DESV(S) 70.9142879 LS 493.287567
NC 95%
TAMAÑO(n) 50
Z 1.95996398
Alfa 0.05

INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA(Y)
0.007

0.006

0.005

0.004

0.003

0.002

0.001

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
-0.001

Interpretación:
El intervalo de confianza para las exportaciones(Y), estará determinado por
[493.121021; 493.287567], el cual determina que su media será: ŷ =493.204294.
 6. GRÁFICAR LOS ERRORES DEL MODELO:

MES - AÑO Exportaciones(Y) Exportaciones(Yp) Error(Exportaciones)

Ene-95 420.6828392 476.9941825 56.31134333
Feb-95 447.1587037 478.2786128 31.1199091
Mar-95 418.825017 480.4610146 61.63599761
Abr-95 359.7704137 480.464843 120.6944293
May-95 465.2926624 480.1709518 14.87828942
Jun-95 531.3936518 479.806542 51.58710978
Jul-95 490.5700637 479.2107167 11.359347
Ago-95 477.809722 479.7123901 1.902668114
Set-95 486.8425581 480.076092 6.766466076
Oct-95 426.1074538 480.6500974 54.54264355
Nov-95 456.3805056 483.46164 27.08113441
Dic-95 510.581467 483.9320126 26.64945436
Ene-96 440.3790493 485.2803129 44.90126359
Feb-96 460.7223725 485.503032 24.78065948
Mar-96 522.9336736 485.584496 37.3491776
Abr-96 432.7953426 486.0272768 53.2319342
May-96 471.871313 488.3370099 16.46569689
Jun-96 553.9781952 489.9066404 64.0715548
Jul-96 542.5510428 490.0397491 52.51129369
Ago-96 498.956437 491.17676 7.779677007
Set-96 449.6892903 492.519718 42.83042768
Oct-96 478.0016045 495.6717105 17.67010597
Nov-96 487.1814569 497.1206969 9.93924
Dic-96 538.5840148 497.043366 41.54064881
Ene-97 557.5252051 499.2304239 58.29478121
Feb-97 494.1939143 499.7786396 5.5847253
Mar-97 563.1093158 499.5101111 63.59920474
Abr-97 499.5285917 500.9891968 1.460605123
May-97 633.1287395 501.074636 132.0541035
Jun-97 725.853971 500.639762 225.214209
Jul-97 597.1585999 500.421726 96.73687392
Ago-97 650.1026523 500.547516 149.5551363
Set-97 518.6614159 500.0766475 18.58476837
Oct-97 551.0648947 501.1024078 49.96248688
Nov-97 473.9772241 503.9359991 29.958775
Dic-97 560.2524368 503.738988 56.51344879
Ene-98 415.3076248 505.19935 89.89172518
 Feb-98 368.6767198 507.9524738 139.275754
Mar-98 413.792651 508.1878155 94.39516447
Abr-98 397.7564471 508.9348937 111.1784466
May-98 463.2891622 510.1613462 46.872184
Jun-98 478.2410098 513.382888 35.14187818
Jul-98 517.8135619 513.888444 3.925117876
Ago-98 536.3181928 516.08917 20.22902279
Set-98 510.2043512 520.1287171 9.924365914
Oct-98 525.244753 520.4824157 4.7623373
Nov-98 525.1394213 522.704526 2.434895312
Dic-98 604.990945 524.859728 80.13121698
Ene-99 528.2013467 530.7443639 2.5430172
Feb-99 420.7010444 537.9735152 117.2724708
TOTAL 50.46194373

ERRORES DE LAS EXPORTACIONES

800

700

600

500

400

300

200
117.2724708
100
56.31134333

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Exportaciones(Y) Exportaciones(Yp) Error(Exportaciones)

Interpretación:
Como observamos en promedio los errores de las exportaciones son de
50.46194373 unidades, entre los meses de enero del año 95 a febrero del 99,
lo cual nos indica que, las exportaciones estimadas están dentro de un rango
accesible para el mercado peruano, ya que por estos años el promedio según
las INEI fue de 102.345 unidades económicas de exportación para los mercados
de Sudamericanos.

7. REALIZAR LA EVALUACIÓN DE LOS PRONÓSTICOS:

MES - AÑO Tipo de Cambio Exportaciones Exportaciones(Yp) ‫ ׀‬et ‫׀‬

Ene-95 2.185272727 420.6828392 476.9941825 -56.31134333
Feb-95 2.2108 447.1587037 478.2786128 -31.1199091
Mar-95 2.254173913 418.825017 480.4610146 -61.63599761
Abr-95 2.25425 359.7704137 480.464843 -120.6944293
May-95 2.248409091 465.2926624 480.1709518 -14.87828942
Jun-95 2.241166667 531.3936518 479.806542 51.58710978
Jul-95 2.229325 490.5700637 479.2107167 11.359347
Ago-95 2.239295455 477.809722 479.7123901 -1.902668114
Set-95 2.24652381 486.8425581 480.076092 6.766466076
Oct-95 2.257931818 426.1074538 480.6500974 -54.54264355
Nov-95 2.313809524 456.3805056 483.46164 -27.08113441
Dic-95 2.323157895 510.581467 483.9320126 26.64945436
Ene-96 2.349954545 440.3790493 485.2803129 -44.90126359
Feb-96 2.354380952 460.7223725 485.503032 -24.78065948
Mar-96 2.356 522.9336736 485.584496 37.3491776
Abr-96 2.3648 432.7953426 486.0272768 -53.2319342
May-96 2.410704545 471.871313 488.3370099 -16.46569689
Jun-96 2.4419 553.9781952 489.9066404 64.0715548
Jul-96 2.444545455 542.5510428 490.0397491 52.51129369
Ago-96 2.467142857 498.956437 491.17676 7.779677007
Set-96 2.493833333 449.6892903 492.519718 -42.83042768
Oct-96 2.556477273 478.0016045 495.6717105 -17.67010597
Nov-96 2.585275 487.1814569 497.1206969 -9.93924
Dic-96 2.583738095 538.5840148 497.043366 41.54064881
Ene-97 2.627204545 557.5252051 499.2304239 58.29478121
Feb-97 2.6381 494.1939143 499.7786396 -5.5847253
Mar-97 2.632763158 563.1093158 499.5101111 63.59920474
Abr-97 2.662159091 499.5285917 500.9891968 -1.460605123
May-97 2.663857143 633.1287395 501.074636 132.0541035
Jun-97 2.655214286 725.853971 500.639762 225.214209
Jul-97 2.650880952 597.1585999 500.421726 96.73687392
Ago-97 2.653380952 650.1026523 500.547516 149.5551363
Set-97 2.644022727 518.6614159 500.0766475 18.58476837
Oct-97 2.664409091 551.0648947 501.1024078 49.96248688
Nov-97 2.720725 473.9772241 503.9359991 -29.958775
Dic-97 2.716809524 560.2524368 503.738988 56.51344879
Ene-98 2.745833333 415.3076248 505.19935 -89.89172518
 Feb-98 2.80055 368.6767198 507.9524738 -139.275754
Mar-98 2.805227273 413.792651 508.1878155 -94.39516447
Abr-98 2.820075 397.7564471 508.9348937 -111.1784466
May-98 2.84445 463.2891622 510.1613462 -46.872184
Jun-98 2.90847619 478.2410098 513.382888 -35.14187818
Jul-98 2.91852381 517.8135619 513.888444 3.925117876
Ago-98 2.962261905 536.3181928 516.08917 20.22902279
Set-98 3.042545455 510.2043512 520.1287171 -9.924365914
Oct-98 3.049575 525.244753 520.4824157 4.7623373
Nov-98 3.093738095 525.1394213 522.704526 2.434895312
Dic-98 3.136571429 604.990945 524.859728 80.13121698
Ene-99 3.253525 528.2013467 530.7443639 -2.5430172
Feb-99 3.3972 420.7010444 537.9735152 -117.2724708
CFE 0.127477675
DAM 50.46194373

Interpretación:
Como el sesgado de los pronósticos CFE<1 y su DAM está dentro de los límites
fluctuantes de las exportaciones de los mercados sudamericanos, por lo tanto,
diremos que nuestros parámetros si están determinados por la RG,
pronosticada.
8.

9.
10.
11.
12.